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Army Founding Day a source of stress

Wednesday, April 25th, 2012

According tot he Daily NK:

The North Korean authorities have called on the people to provide supplies for care packages to be given to military units on People’s Army Foundation Day, which falls today. It is not a new burden, but is relatively larger this year, according to a source.

The source from Chongjin in North Hamkyung Province told the Daily NK yesterday, “The people feel seriously burdened by the project going on nationwide to gather support supplies ahead of the military holiday. Each household is required to offer up towels, soap, toothpaste, socks and underwear.”

“Usually they collect around 1,000 won from each family, but this year they told us to give 10,000 won,” the source went on. “Since even providing food for the family is not easy, many people are playing a waiting game on this.”

The source explained that societal organizations (the Union of Democratic Women, General Federation of Korean Trade Unions etc) have also been gathering care packages for delivery to local military units by ‘People’s Delegations’ consisting of municipal and county Party cadres.

“Middle school classes are also suspended while students prepare and perform ‘People’s Army Comfort Concerts’ at art centers and in military camps, and the Union of Democratic Women are preparing art performances,” she added.

Problematically, the various April holidays also mean that markets are closed more often than normal, and this is driving down household incomes.

For the Day of the Sun, the markets were closed from the 14th through the 17th. The markets are also closed today for Army Foundation Day today. Moreover, they were also closed on the day Kim Jong Eun was elevated to 1st Secretary and the day of the mass rally organized to denounce the Lee Myung Bak administration, to name but two.

As such, the source concluded, “April is a hectic month. Aside from the fact that the people are exhausted because of the pressure from the authorities their income has dropped by around half so many will likely end up in debt.”

Read the full story here:
Army Founding Day a Source of Stress
Daily NK
Choi Song Min
2012-04-25

Posted in Civil society, Democratic Women's Union, Federation of Trade Unions, General markets (FMR: Farmers Market), Military | Comments Closed

Kim Jong-un’s first public speech

Sunday, April 15th, 2012

Pictured above: Kim Jong-un delivers his first public address in Kim Il-sung Square

You can watch the video of the entire speech on YouTube here. And just for fun, here is a link to Kim Jong-il’s only public address which I posted to Youtube last year. I also posted this video of Kim Jong-il speaking at a meeting with South Korean president Roh Roh Moo-hyun.

UPDATE 2 (2012-4-25): The Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) has posted some analysis of the speech:

Kim Jong-un’s first public speech: New direction for economic policy stressed
Institute For Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2012-4-25

Kim Jong Un, the first chairman of the National Defence Commission of the DPRK, made his first speech during a military parade to commemorate the centenary of the birth of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung.

The Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, released an article on April 19 with the details of the speech.

In the article, Kim Jong Un emphasized, “songun is our autonomy, dignity and life” and pledged to uphold the songun politics to continue the teachings of his father, Kim Jong Il.

Kim Jong Un also underlined that the most important national agenda is becoming a powerful nation through improving the national economy, and resolving the food shortage problem. In addition, he stressed that strong knowledge-based economy must be built by way of new industrial revolution.

The economic policy Kim Jong Un set forth involved resolving the food crisis for the people, development of light industry, transition to a powerful knowledge-based economy, land management, and improvement of cultural and education projects. The Cabinet will be directing the new economic plan. The details of the plan are as follows:

First, in order to resolve the food issue, agricultural production should be improved through investment and technological assistance from the state level. Grain yields should be increased to reach the grain production goals to normalize food distribution for the people.

Second, light industry must be reinforced to resolve the shortages of daily necessities. Specific measures should be established to secure raw materials and to improve the quality to elevate the demand of North Korean products.

Third, housing, food, fuel and other issues related to livelihood must be given priority to improve the quality of life for the people.

Fourth, basic industrial sectors must be developed to build a strong foundation for economic development which can lead to advance production in all areas of the people’s economy.

Fifth, power, coal, metal, and railway system should lead the way to revitalize the people’s economy and stabilize the lives of the people. In particular, power production must be drastically increased and distributed in order to effectively improve the quality of life and monitoring and control must be reinforced.

Sixth, the nation must be established as a strong knowledge-based nation. It was acknowledged that the world is quickly transitioning to the informatization of the economy and North Korea must develop the national economy and build an economic structure that meets international demand. Science and technology should be the forerunner to incorporate science and technology with production and resolve all problems in the economic development process from the science and technology aspect.

UPDATE 1 (2012-4-18): Martyn Williams somehow managed to put up a full English translation of the talk.

ORIGINAL POST (2012-4-15): KCNA reports on the speech:

Kim Jong Un Speaks at Military Parade

Pyongyang, April 15 (KCNA) — The dear respected Kim Jong Un made a congratulatory speech at the military parade celebrating the centenary of the birth of Generalissimo Kim Il Sung.

In his speech Kim Jong Un said that the military parade is a great festival of victors which was provided according to the noble intention of leader Kim Jong Il and on his direct initiative to glorify forever the feats Kim Il Sung performed in the army building and demonstrate the might of the socialist power before the world.

Kim Il Sung, who directed primary efforts to strengthening the revolutionary armed forces in the whole period of his protracted revolutionary activities, worked such military miracle in the 20th century as defeating the most ferocious two imperialisms in one generation, trained the Korean People’s Army into a match-for-a hundred revolutionary army, put all the people under arms and turned the whole country into a fortress, providing a strong military guarantee for the sovereignty of the country and the eternal prosperity of the nation, he noted.

Kim Jong Il, who regarded it as his lifelong mission to carry forward and accomplish the Songun revolutionary cause of Juche pioneered by Kim Il Sung, ushered in the greatest heyday of the development of the Korean revolutionary armed forces with his extraordinary wisdom, outstanding commanding art and matchless grit, he said, and went on:

The Korean revolutionary armed forces have fully demonstrated the might of the powerful revolutionary army distinct in its revolutionary nature and strong in its militant spirit and might under the care of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il.

The military and technical superiority is no longer a monopoly of the imperialists and gone are the days when the enemies could threaten and blackmail against the DPRK with A bombs.

The far-reaching strategy and final victory of the Korean revolution lie in advancing straight along the road of independence, the road of Songun and the path of socialism indicated by Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il.

It is the firm resolution of the Workers’ Party of Korea to enable our people, the best people in the world who have remained loyal to the party, overcoming all difficulties, to live, without tightening their belts any longer, and fully enjoy wealth and prosperity under socialism.

The WPK and the DPRK government will join hands with anyone who truly wants the reunification of the country and the peace and prosperity of the nation and make responsible and patient efforts to accomplish the historic cause of national reunification.

The sun’s flag of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il will fly forever before the ranks of the Korean revolution demonstrating victory and glory only and will always encourage us to win fresh victories, he concluded.

More below…

(more…)

Posted in Arduous March, Food, Kim Jong Un, Military, Political economy | 1 Comment »

Unha 3 rocket launch compendium

Thursday, April 12th, 2012

Below I have posted links and excerpts of stories related to the launch of the Unha-3 rocket in April 2012. Here is the Wikipedia page

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Pictured above (Google Earth): (L) The Sohae Satellite Launching Station (AKA Tongchang-ri launch facility) in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province–site of the “Kwangmyongsong-3 launch”

UPDATE 48 (2012-5-2): The UNSC sanctions three additional DPRK organizations. See UNSC documents here, here, and here.

According to the AP (via Washington Post):

The U.N. Security Council ordered all countries Wednesday to freeze the assets of three North Korean state-owned companies to punish Pyongyang for its failed rocket launch last month.

The April 13 long-range launch, which Pyongyang called a failed attempt to put a satellite into space, violated earlier Security Council resolutions prohibiting North Korea from engaging in nuclear and missile activity. The rocket broke into pieces shortly after liftoff.

The Security Council’s committee that monitors sanctions against North Korea approved the sanctions Wednesday and ordered all countries to freeze the assets of the three companies. The European Union, U.S., Japan and South Korea proposed additional entities for sanctions, but the committee acts by consensus and China, North Korea’s closest ally, only approved the three companies.

U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice told reporters the three companies are “very much involved in … illicit missile and nuclear programs.”

The three sanctioned companies — Green Pine Associated Corporation, the Amroggang Development Banking Corporation and The Korea Heungjin Trading Company — play a role in financing, exporting and procuring weapons, the U.S. Mission to the U.N. said in a statement.

Green Pine is responsible for about half of the arms and weapons exported by North Korea, the U.S. statement said. Amroggang Development Banking is managed by Tanchon Commercial Bank, which is “the main North Korean financial entity for sales of conventional arms, ballistic missiles and goods related to the assembly and manufacturer of such weapons,” the statement added. It described Korea Heungjin as a trading company that has been used to procure an advanced digital controller with applications in missile design.

Rice said the sanctions committee also approved additional items and technology that are prohibited for transfer to or from North Korea on two key lists dealing with missiles and nuclear-related material, and approved a new work plan for the committee’s panel of experts aimed at intensifying efforts to monitor and improve the implementation of sanctions.

The Missile Technology Control Regime, a group of 34 countries, monitors the transfer of missile equipment, material and related technologies that can be used to deliver weapons of mass destruction. The Nuclear Suppliers Group comprises countries that have established export rules to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Both list items banned for export; they were last updated in 2009.

“The committee’s package of new measures constitutes a serious and credible response to North Korea’s provocation,” Rice said in a statement. “These measures will increase North Korea’s isolation and make it harder for Pyongyang to move forward with its illicit programs.”

The Security Council unanimously approved a presidential statement on April 16 strongly condemning the failed rocket launch. The council gave the sanctions committee, which includes all 15 council members, 15 days to prepare new additions for the sanctions list.

The European Union proposed about 40 additions to the sanctions and the missile and nuclear lists, and the United States, Japan and South Korea also submitted lists, diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity because talks have been private.

China did not respond until just before the deadline Tuesday night, and approved sanctions against the three companies and updates to the two lists, the diplomats said.

It was third time in six years that the Security Council imposed sanctions against North Korea. The council blacklisted eight entities — six trading companies, a bank and the General Bureau of Atomic Energy — and five individuals after North Korea’s nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

UPDATE 47 (2012-4-30): Reuters reports:

The United States, South Korea, Japan and European nations have submitted to the U.N. Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee lists of individuals and firms they want blacklisted after Pyongyang’s recent rocket launch, envoys said on Monday.

Earlier this month the 15-nation council strongly condemned North Korea’s April 13 rocket launch, called for adding new names to the list of those hit by existing U.N. sanctions and warned Pyongyang of further consequences if it carried out another missile launch or nuclear test.

“So far the United States, European council members, South Korea and Japan have proposed new designations ahead of tomorrow’s midnight deadline (to agree on new names),” a council diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

It was not immediately clear which firms and individuals the council would blacklist, assuming it reached agreement.

The Security Council imposed sanctions on Pyongyang in response to its 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests.

China, North Korea’s protector on the Security Council and a permanent veto-wielding member, also backed the council’s “presidential statement” from two weeks ago, ensuring its unanimous adoption. The statement gave the council’s North Korea sanctions committee 15 days to propose new sanctions listings.

“That deadline might be extended for a few days to give China a little more time to think about the proposed designations,” another council diplomat said. The deadline for agreement is midnight EDT on Tuesday (0400 GMT on Wednesday).

“It looks as if China won’t stand in the way of an agreement (on expanding the sanctions list) though they won’t necessarily accept adding all the proposed individuals and entities,” he added. Several other Western diplomats said they also expected China would agree to an expansion of the U.N. blacklist.

Diplomats say that if the committee can agree on adding new names to the blacklist, it will be a further sign of Beijing’s irritation with its hermit neighbor over a satellite rocket launch North Korea had been widely urged not to carry out.

The North Korea sanctions committee includes all 15 council members. It works on the basis of consensus, which means any individual council member can block agreement.

The U.N. blacklist includes individuals facing international travel bans and asset freezes, companies whose assets are to be frozen and goods that North Korea is not allowed to export or import.

The current list includes eight companies and five individuals. Under two Security Council sanctions resolutions from 2006 and 2009, North Korea is barred from importing nuclear and ballistic-missile technology, as well as luxury goods.

UPDATE 46 (2012-4-20): Global Security reports “Panetta: China Assisted North Korea Missile Program”:

This week U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said China has provided some assistance to North Korea’s missile program, possibly violating U.N. sanctions on the country.

Beijing has denied the allegations, but Panetta says that China must do more to bring North Korea to the negotiating table.

“We’ve made very clear to China that China has a responsibility here to make sure that North Korea — if they want to improve the situation with their people, if they want to become a part of the international family, if they, in fact, want to deal with the terrible issues that are confronting North Korea, there’s a way to do that,” he said. “And China ought to be urging them to engage in those kinds of diplomatic negotiations. We thought we were making some progress and suddenly we’re back at provocation.”

Beijing has long been Pyongyang’s most important backer, providing key economic support and acting as an international advocate during times when tension escalates between Pyongyang and other countries.

Mike Chinoy is a Senior Fellow at USC’s U.S.-China Institute and has traveled to North Korea 15 times. He says there are signs that despite the close ties between the two, China may be re-evaluating its relationship.

“I think Beijing has been taken aback by the North Korean decision to stage the satellite launch and by the generally tough and somewhat truculent tone that the North Koreans have adopted. It’s a problem for the Chinese, because they don’t really like what the North Koreans are doing,” Chinoy explained.

…

UPDATE 45 (2012-4-17): KCNA publishes the DPRK’s denunciation of the UNSC presidential statement and announces the scrapping of the “leap day deal“. See the KCNA article here. South Korean Unification Minister, Yu Woo-ik, announced the ROK will continue humanitarian aid.

UPDATE 44 (2012-4-16): U.N. condemns North Korea rocket launch. According to the Associated Press:

The U.N.Security Council on Monday strongly condemned North Korea’s rocket launch, announced it will impose new sanctions, and warned that it will take further action if Pyongyang conducts another launch or a new nuclear test.

A presidential statement, approved by all 15 council members and read at a formal meeting, said Friday’s launch, “as well as any use of ballistic missile technology, even if characterized as a satellite launch or space launch vehicle, is a serious violation of U.N. resolutions.”

The Security Council adopted a resolution imposing sanctions against North Korea after its first nuclear test in 2006, and stepped up the sanctions after its second test in 2009.

The Security Council demanded Monday that North Korea halt any further launches and said Friday’s launch “has caused grave concerns in the region.”

U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice, the current council president, said the speedy adoption of the statement “shows that the international community is united” in sending a strong message to North Korea and said its companies dealing in nuclear technology would be added to the sanctions list.

The council said it asked the Security Council committee monitoring sanctions against North Korea to prepare new additions for the sanctions list within 15 days, and said if it doesn’t the council itself would take action within five days to expand the sanctions list.

The council expressed “its determination to take action accordingly in the event of a further DPRK launch or nuclear test,” the statement said, using the initials of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

You can read the UNSC Presidential Statement here (PDF). You can also read it on the UNSC’ press release on the topic.

The New York Times also reports:

The rocket failure had raised conjecture that the North Korean leadership might embark on a purge to assign blame. But video footage from a large military parade on Sunday in Pyongyang showed that two party officials in charge of the North’s defense industries — Pak To-chun, party secretary for munitions industries, and Ju Kyu-chang, director of the party’s department for machinery industries — were present in their military uniforms.

Another important official connected to the North’s nuclear and missile programs, Paek Se-bong, head of the country’s Second Economic Commission, retained his seat on the country’s powerful National Defense Commission.

Also on Monday, Choson Sinbo, a pro-North Korean newspaper in Japan that often speaks for the North’s government, said North Korea would embark on developing a rocket much bigger than the Unha-3, the rocket that disintegrated Friday a few moments after liftoff.

The Unha-3 took off from a new launching pad near the western border with China. Experts who have examined the site through satellite imagery have said it was designed for bigger rockets than the Unha-3.

See previous posts below…
(more…)

Posted in Military, Rocket Tests, Unha 3 | 4 Comments »

ROK intel official claims DPRK preparing for third nuke test

Tuesday, April 10th, 2012

According to Yonhap:

North Korea is believed to be gearing up for a nuclear test, an intelligence official said Sunday, a move certain to fuel the already high tensions over its planned long-range rocket launch.

Satellite images show the communist nation digging a new tunnel underground in the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the country’s northeast, where it conducted two previous nuclear tests, first in 2006 and then in 2009.

The construction is believed to be in its final stage, the official said.

“North Korea is making clandestine preparations for a third nuclear test at Punggye-ri in North Hamkyong Province, where it conducted two nuclear tests in the past,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

Commercial satellite imagery showed piles of earth and sand at the entrance of a tunnel in the Punggye-ri site. The soil is believed to have been brought to the site to plug the tunnel, one of final steps before carrying out a nuclear test blast.

A nuclear test following a long-range missile test fits the pattern of North Korean behavior.

The Daily NK also reported on the satellite images:

From the Daily NK: Two satellite images of the Pungye-ri test site. The left image shows three test shafts (labeled ‘West’, ‘East’ and ‘South’), while the right focuses on the mound of excavated earth growing at the entrance to the ‘South Shaft’

“Evidence from recent satellite images has confirmed that apart from the existing two test shafts at the Pungye test site, North Korea is excavating a new shaft, and that this work is in the final stages of completion,” the source went on.

In the satellite images from U.S. commercial earth observation satellite ‘Quickbird’, a growing mound of dirt can be seen near the new tunnel entrance. It has been constantly growing since last month, according to analysts.

In the case of past tests, the completion of the test shaft represented almost the final stage of preparations for the test, suggesting that, as speculated, North Korea is planning to use the pretext of international pressure that is sure to follow its rocket launch to undertake such a test.

“They are implementing their original plan, which was to test their nuclear weapons and delivery systems,” Korea Institute for National Unification researcher Cheon Seong Whun asserted to Daily NK by phone. “It is unrelated to UN Security Council resolutions pursuant to the rocket launch and all of that. They will conduct a nuclear test after the missile launch.”

ISIS also provides some helpful analysis:

South Korean press has reported recently that North Korea is preparing to conduct another nuclear explosive test at the same site as its 2006 and 2009 tests. These reports cite recent satellite imagery showing an increase in the amount of dirt adjacent to a test shaft. ISIS has obtained commercial satellite imagery taken on April 1, 2012. This new imagery shows what appears to be an increase in the size of a pile of material at the test site (see figures 1 and 2), though it is unclear if such an increase is necessarily evidence of an impending nuclear test.

In 2010, satellite imagery showed evidence of excavation work in the form of a growing pile of earth or other material at the site and led to speculation that a test could follow. However, a test did not occur. This same pile of material is now growing again, as seen in the April 1, 2012 imagery. A recent report from South Korean intelligence reportedly assesses that the “…dirt believed to have been brought from other areas is piled at the tunnel entrance…” It assesses that this dirt would be used to “plug” the tunnel before conducting a test. In other words, South Korean intelligence reportedly assesses that the growth in the pile of material seen in the newest satellite imagery is not evidence of tunneling activity for a test shaft but rather evidence of bringing in material from elsewhere. According to these reports, North Korea would use this material to plug a shaft in advance of a nuclear explosive test, which by implication could happen soon. However, it is possible that the increase in material seen in the April 1, 2012 image is resulting from further excavation of a test shaft, and not evidence of an intention to plug the shaft before a test. Moreover, even if the South Korean report is correct, the test may not be imminent.

ISIS will continue to collect and assess satellite imagery of the test site.

ABOVE: An October 16, 2010 commercial satellite image of the same site. The pile of material appears smaller in this image.

ABOVE: An April 1, 2012 commercial satellite image of the nuclear test site in North Korea. A pile of material adjacent to a reported test shaft entrance appears to have grown, compared to an October 16, 2010 satellite image of the same site. It is not clear, however, if this is necessarily evidence of an impending nuclear explosive test.

I have posted links to previous articles hinting at a third nuclear test below:
1. 2010-11-23: Nuke test number three?

2. 2011-2-21: Drilling at Punggye-ri continues

Posted in Energy, Military, Nuclear | Comments Closed

Paekham County and potatoes

Monday, April 9th, 2012

Pictured Above (Google Earth): Paekam County (백암군) in Ryanggang Province

According to the Daily NK:

One of the agriculture projects in which Kim Jong Il took a particular interest was potato farming in Baekam County, part of Yangkang Province. However, such high-level patronage has not been enough to save Baekam from disaster, people from the area say, since more than half the discharged soldiers dispatched by the state to work there subsequently disappeared without a trace.

Yangkang Province, a place where “potato farming is the only thing left to do,” first began receiving attention in 1998. When North Korea’s famine was at its peak in October that year, Kim Jong Il visited nearby Daehongdan County and declared, “Potatoes are the same as white rice.” However, there was no labor available to produce the potatoes Kim wanted. So, by way of a solution, the authorities decided to dispatch discharged soldiers en masse to work the potato farms.

Defectors from the region have testified that around 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers were settled in Daehongdan County. To keep these men happy, the Party even settled hundreds of women in the district to marry them. Kim Jong Il suggested they should name sons ‘Daehong’ and daughters ‘Hongdan’.

Then, in December of 2009, Kim Jong Il ordered the establishment of a potato farm in Baekam County as well. In the following May, according to Chosun Central News Agency, Kim visited, and while there he reportedly commented, “I believe it to be highly significant that we turn Baekam County into a potato producer.”

Again according to Chosun Central News Agency, in August of that same year the mass dispatch of discharged soldiers to Baekam County was completed. All the soldiers were given medals and an awarding ceremony was held in Pyongyang; the whole event was broadcast on North Korean TV.

However, now the situation is different. In 1998, a soldier might have accepted the Party’s decision on the sensible premise that “at least I will not starve.” However, young soldiers living in capitalist North Korea today are not being presented with the same incentives. Indeed, people say that handing ‘farming’ down to one’s children as an occupation is like a death sentence. Now, working hard can lead to a life that a cadre in Pyongyang would not look down upon. Living in the countryside and eating little other than potatoes can no longer satisfy.

The result was predictable. In October, 2010 the discharged soldiers were given a one month break to visit their hometowns. It was advertized as a gift for men who had not been able to return home after their discharge from the military. However, in reality it was a holiday given because the men could not be given their rations. They needed to go home to obtain money and necessities.

Regardless of which, a year and six months have now passed since the day when they were meant to return, but 50% of the 3,000 men have not been seen since, sources say.

Read the full story here:
Potatoes at the End of the Earth
Daily NK
Kim So Yeol
2012-4-9

Posted in Agriculture, Food, Manufacturing, Military | Comments Closed

KPA Navy Units 790 and 158

Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

Last night I loaded Google Earth and took the time to track down the KPA Navy units Kim Jong-un recently visited (as one does).

According to KCNA (2012-2-6), Kim Jong-un inspected the Command of Combined Unit 597 of the KPA Navy and its units. The specific units he visited were the 790 and 158 Units. For more details of the visit, check out this NK Leadership Watch post.

Unit 790 is in Rakwon county (락원군) at Google Earth Coordinates: 39.902029°, 127.866356°

Click image for larger version

Unit 158 is also based in Rakwon county (39.875964°, 127.779881°) on the other side of the the hill from the Kim family residential compound, “Building No. 72”. We know about this leadership residence because Kenji Fujimoto visited here. Kim Jong-un is likely residing here as he tours the area:

Click image for larger version

Or maybe that is just what they want us to think?

Interestingly, in the location where Kim Jong-un was said to have visited KPA Navy Unit 158, Kim Jong-il visited on November 27, 2009—except then it was the Command of KPA Navy Combined Unit 587. So this could mean a couple of different things to the non-military-expert (me). Either KPA Navy Combined Units 587 and 597 are headquartered in the same location, or they are the same unit with a different name. Other ideas and theories welcome.

Posted in Google Earth, Military | Comments Closed

Kim Jong-un’s January 2012

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

UPDATE 1: Luke Herman provides some additional infomration here.

ORIGINAL PSOT: January has been quite interesting for DPRK watchers as we are seeing the steps taken to establish the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un. Below I have cataloged some visible components of this process:

Kim Jong-un’s “on the spot guidance” (OSG):

Kim Jong-un began the year with a visit to Kumsusan palace to pay respects to president Kim Il-sung and leader Kim Jong-il. The political and cultural symbolism speaks for itself.

Kim Jong-un’s second guidance trip (reported on the same day) was reportedly to the Seoul Ryu Kyong Su 105 Guards Tank Division. This visit is symbolically important because it was on a guidance trip to this very same division that (according to the North Korean narrative) Kim Jong-il began his “Songun” (Military First) leadership. According to KCNA (2010-8-24):

An oath-taking meeting of servicepersons of the three services of the Korean People’s Army took place at the Ssangun-ri Revolutionary Site in Sukchon County, South Phyongan Province, on Tuesday on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of Supreme Commander Kim Jong Il’s start of the Songun revolutionary leadership.

The reporter and speakers at the meeting recalled that Kim Jong Il started the Songun revolutionary leadership by providing field guidance, together with President Kim Il Sung, to the Seoul Ryu Kyong Su 105 Guards Tank Division of the KPA on August 25, Juche 49 (1960) stationed in Ssangun-ri.

Here is a satellite image (Google Earth) of the Ssangun-ri Revolutionary Site (쌍운리 혁명사적지, 39°25’3.20″N, 125°44’30.74″E):

Joseph Bermudez wrote more about the Seoul Ryu Kyong Su 105 Guards Tank Division here. Kim Jong-il last visited the unit on 2010-12-31.

The remainder of Kim’s guidance trips in January have been overwhelmingly military in nature:

KPA Air Force Unit 1017
Concert Given by Military Band of KPA
Flight Training of KPA Air Force Unit 378
Demonstration by Players of Western Area Aviation Club (KPA)
Mangyongdae Revolutionary School (KPA)
Lunar New Year Reception
Machine Plant managed by Ho Chol Yong (KPA)
Kim Jong Un Inspects Command of KPA Large Combined Unit 671
Kim Jong Un Inspects KPA Air Force Unit 354
Kim Jong Un Inspects KPA Unit 3870
KPA Unit 169 honored with the title of the O Jung Hup-led Seventh Regiment
Music and dance performace
Hero Street Meat Shop
Pyongyang Folk Village (KPA)
2012 New Year’s concert “The Cause of the Sun Will Be Immortal” given by the Unhasu Orchestra
Seoul Ryu Kyong Su 105 Guards Tank Division
Tribute to Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il at (Kamsusan)

The media/propaganda campaign:

1. On Kim Jong-un’s birthday, KCTV ran a much–written–about, hour–long documentary titled, Inheriting the Great Achievement of the Military First Revolution of (Mount) Baekdu, which highlights Kim Jong-un’s bona fides as a great military strategist (see full video here). It also allegedly mentions Jong-un’s mother, though not by name, who was born in Japan.

At this point I don’t have much to add on the film except a translation of Kim Jong-un’s quote in the film, which may be his first official one, provided by C. La Shure in the Korean Studies Digest:

“I am accustomed to working through the night and so am not bothered by it. The most joyous and happiest moments for me are when I can bring joy to the comrade supreme commander. Thus, though I have stayed up several nights, I have worked without knowing weariness. Even when I work through several nights, once I have brought joy to the comrade supreme commander, the weariness vanishes and a new strength courses through my whole body. This must be what revolutionaries live for.”

2. Kim Jong-un’s “motherly” or “nurturing” traits have also been emphasized — imitating not only Kim il-sung’s appearance but also his public mannerisms (a la Bryan Myers):

Pictured above: (Top) The cover of B.R. Myers’ book, The Cleanest Race. (Bottom) Kim Jong-un’s visits to KPA Unit 354 (L) and the Mangyongdae Revolutionary School (R)

3. Kim Jong-un has issued several autographs which look remarkably like his father’s (and grandfather’s):

Pictured above: (L) Kim Jong-il’s signature taken from North Korean television. (R) Kim Jong-un’s signature as reported by KCNA on 2012-1-3. The Choson Ilbo also picked up on this.

4. The KCNA web page now has a special content filter built specifically to highlight Kim Jong-un’s activities. They have also started printing his name in a larger type.

5. Kim Jong-un is now part of the DPRK’s infamous criticism sessions. According to the Daily NK:

“The Central Party is propagandizing the greatness of Kim Jong Eun through criticism sessions, and coming down hard on anybody who is reported to have said anything hinting at any doubt of his greatness,” the source said, adding, “all cadres are being careful not to get caught out by this, without exception.”

6. Kim Jong-un is being called “father” in the official media. According to the Daily NK:

Choson Central News Agency (KCNA) on the 25th reported that Kim Jong Eun made a visit to the Mangyondae Revolutionary School. During his visit, Kim Jong Eun was greeted by staff and students as “Dear Father,” a designation stressing loyalty.

Rodong Shinmun, a day before, ran an article entitled ‘The sun shines forever’. It stated “our people broken hearted at the loss of our nation’s Father (Kim Jong Il ) and out of love our father (Kim Jong Eun) warmly welcomed the return of our people from overseas.” This statement showed that Kim Jong Eun has succeeded being called ‘father’ following Kim Jong Il.

The newspaper went on to praise Kim Jong Eun, “our people are all one in our father and persist with single-minded unity and great heart.”

7. The Lunar New Year holiday was co-opted to celebrate the rise of Kim Jong-un. In addition to public ceremonies and performances in honor of one of the three leaders (Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un), the practice of distributing holiday rations in the name of the leader was resumed. In a sign of the “back to the future” economic policies which may be on the horizon, the DPRK is rumored to be interested in reviving nation-wide food distribution through the PDS.

8. KCNA announced an amnesty for convicts. Details were scarce.

Posted in 2011 food shortage debate, Food, Kim Jong Un, Military, Political economy, Public Distribiution System (PDS) | 3 Comments »

Mirim’s second Kim Il-sung Square

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

UPDATE 1: By coincidence NK Leadership Watch and I posted on a similar topic today. See his post and analysis here.

ORIGINAL POST: Today the Daily NK reported that preparations were underway for another KPA military parade:

A high level government official revealed today, “North Korea has been mobilizing military personnel and equipment to practice for the military parade at Mirim Airfields near Pyongyang. This practice has been taking place since even before the death of Kim Jong Il.”

The official explained the reason for the ongoing parade practice as part of preparations to commemorate Kim Il Sung’s birthday (April 15) and the Mlitary Foundation Day (April 25).

The military parade practice has so far involved the Worker and Peasant Red Guard, which is made up of currently-serving soldiers and reservists, mobilized with the latest-model tanks, armored cars, as well as short and medium range KN-02 and Musudan missiles.

The official added, “North Korea conducts parades on anniversaries such as the Military Foundation Day and other national holidays. Looking at the speed and scale of preparations currently underway, it seems more likely that the parade will take place in April rather than on February 16, Kim Jong Il’s birthday.”

The logistics of these parades are enormous. I learned a lot about them back in November at a meeting with Osamu Eya in Japan. Among the many things we discussed, I asked him where the North Korean military practices their parades through Kim Il-sung Square. He answered with a single word: “Mirim”.

Now I am kind of embarrassed to admit that I never saw the resemblance (because I thought of the Mirim area as a runway strip and because the two places are not geographically laid out in the same directions). Once you rotate the satellite images and set them next to each other, however, there is no denying that the KPA has a Kim Il-sung Square-sized practice area from which to rehearse its grand military parades.

Pictured above (Google Earth): (L) Kim Il-Sung Square, (R) Mirim parade practice area.

Looking at the most current Google Earth satellite imagery (2010-10-6) we can see vehicles already practicing for their next parade:

In this Google Earth image (2006-11-11) we can see people practicing in the area:

Going back to the oldest available satellite image on Google Earth (2000-6-12) the use of the facility as a practice area is a little more clear. We can also see some of what remains of the original landing strip in this photo:

But Mirim is not just a practice filed. It also contains facilities to house and feed the thousands of people who come to practice. Just to the left of the field is the April 25 Hotel:

According to KCNA (1998-9-30):

The April 25 Hotel has been built on the outskirts of Pyongyang as a monumental edifice in the era of the Workers’ Party. The hotel with a total floor space of more than 134,000 square metres and accommodation for 20,000 guests has bedrooms, cultural and welfare facilities and cook equipment on a highest level. It will serve servicemen and civilians who participate in national military and civic events. Soldier-builders successfully finished this gigantic project–erection of buildings, assembling of equipment and arrangement of the area–in a little more than one year. A ceremony for the completion of the hotel took place on Tuesday. Present at the ceremony were Jo Myong Rok, Kim Il Chol, Kye Ung Thae and others. A congratulatory message of the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee was conveyed to the soldier-builders and helpers who had performed feats in the hotel construction. The message noted that the April 25 Hotel, a monumental edifice of the era, has been built in a short span of time under the present conditions that all the people have to overcome manifold trials and hardships in their advance. it could be done only by the revolutionary army of Korea who knows no impossibility, and it is a proud fruition produced by the might of the army and people rallied around the party as one in mind, it stressed. Highly praising the soldier-builders and helpers for demonstrating again the potentials and stamina of socialist Korea by completing the hotel, the message expressed the belief that they would make greater success in carrying out their revolutionary duties. Jo Myong Rok made a report at the ceremony. The reporter said that the heroic and proud feats performed by servicemen in the noble work to carry out the WPK’s grand plan for construction will be always remembered by the fatherland and handed down to posterity.

KCNA reported on 1998-10-8 that Kim Jong-il visited the hotel:

Pictured above: Kim Jong-il giving “on the spot guidance” at the 4.25 Hotel

[Kim Jong-il] then went to the April 25 Hotel which was newly built on Mirim plain. Looking round the interior and exterior of the hotel including a bedroom, a washroom, a dining hall and a kitchen, he learned how the hotel had been built. He highly praised soldiers and helpers for having built the hotel in a short span of time and contributed to demonstrating the potential and stamina of socialist Korea once again. He said the construction of the hotel in a short span of time is a miracle that can be worked only by the heroic Korean People’s Army (KPA) which is intensely loyal to the party. He added that the country will always remember the soldiers’ heroic feats and proud achievements in socialist construction. He called for equipping the hotel, an asset of eternal value for the army and people, with better facilities, planting many trees around the hotel, creating a pleasure park and providing those who stay in the hotel with good conditions for cultured life. As many servicemen and civilians will use the hotel, they should be given best services, he said, and gave the hotel important tasks for its management and operation. The Chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission was accompanied by director of the General Political Department of the KPA Jo Myong Rok, chief of the general staff of the KPA Kim Yong Chun, Minister of the People’s Armed Forces Kim Il Chol and general officers of the KPA.

This hotel was built at the time the DPRK was experiencing the “Arduous March” (Forced March)–a famine which killed up to a million people. Despite the acute shortage of food and a breakdown of the DPRK’s revolutionary social contract, KCNA listed this hotel as one of the great accomplishments of the North Koreans during this time (1998-12-31):

This year proud successes have been reported from the DPRK in face of difficulties brought on by the combined effects of the never-ceasing campaign of the imperialists to stifle the DPRK and years of natural disasters. The most remarkable success gained in the forced march this year is artitifical satellite “Kwangmyongsong 1” which was launched into orbit on august 31. The scientists and technicians of Korea launched into orbit the first artificial satellite, a product of their own wisdom and technology, fully demonstrating the national power of Korea with a powerful scientific and technical force and the solid foundations of the independent national economy. Bulky April 25 Hotel and September 9 Street sprang up in Pyongyang to commemorate 50 years of the DPRK (September 9). The hotel with modern equipment and accommodation for 20,000 is on the east outskirts of the capital city. The street linking Pyongyang Airport to the Kumsusan Memorial Palace, the sacred temple of Juche, gave a major face-lifting to the northwest area of the capital city with bridges of special characteristics, flats for thousands of households, ornamental forests, scores of metres wide, on either side of the highway in good harmony with landscape. Thousands of minor power stations were built across the country this year. The locally-built minor power stations in Jagang Province meet the needs for the lighting of the flats for more than 100,000 households and the production of local-industry factories. Flats for 10,000 households in Chongjin, an industrial city, benefit from electric heating. A growing number of cities, counties and units are offsetting the demands for electricity with electric energy turned out at minor power stations. The Huichon General Machine Tool Plant produced hundreds of machine tools in a matter of a few months. In the railway transport diesel engine locomotives were converted into electric locomotives called “forced march.” 60 kilometre-odd-long railroad between Haeju and Ongjin, between singangryong and Pupho in the central area of the country was switched over to a broad-gauge one. The Pyongyang Integrated Circuits Factory, salt refineries and other industrial establishments were commissioned or completed throughout the country. As a result, a more solid economic foundation of the nation was laid.

Posted in 1990s Famine, Arduous March, Construction, Military | Comments Closed

North Korean trade and aid statistics update

Tuesday, January 17th, 2012

According to Business Week:

North Korea’s trade expanded more than 20 percent in 2010 to $6.1 billion on growing business with China even as the economy shrank for a second year, South Korea’s national statistics office said.

Trade volume increased 22.3 percent in 2010 after a 10.5 percent decline in 2009, Statistics Korea said in its annual report today in Seoul. Commerce with China accounted for 57 percent, or $3.5 billion, of North Korea’s foreign trade, up from 53 percent in the previous year. The totalitarian state doesn’t report economic statistics.

North Korea’s gross domestic product contracted 0.5 percent to 30 trillion won ($26.1 billion) in 2010, compared with South Korea’s 1,173 trillion won, the Bank of Korea said in November. Per capita income was 1.24 million won compared with South Korea’s 24 million won.

Kim Jong Un took over as leader of North Korea in December after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il. The regime has relied on economic handouts since the mid-1990s and an estimated 2 million people have died from famine, according to South Korea’s central bank. The United Nations and the U.S. increased sanctions on the country aimed at curtailing its nuclear weapons program after 2010 attacks that killed 50 South Koreans.

Chinese aid to the stricken country will probably increase as the government in Beijing seeks to avoid a flood of refugees from crossing the 880-mile (1,416 kilometer) border it shares with North Korea, analyst Dong Yong Sueng said. While food shortages have contributed to rising defections, North Korea has shown no willingness to ease sanctions by abandoning its nuclear weapons program.

Economic Dependence

“North Korea’s economic dependence on China will inevitably increase for the time being unless there’s some resolution to the nuclear situation,” said Dong, a senior fellow at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul. “China wants a stable North Korean regime and succession to avoid a potential influx of refugees.”

North Korea had a shortfall of as much as 700,000 metric tons of food last year, which could affect a quarter of the population, according to the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization. China provides almost 90 percent of energy imports and 45 percent of the country’s food, according to a 2009 report from the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.

China is preparing to consent to a North Korean request to provide 1 million tons of food in time for the April 5 anniversary of the birth of the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung, Japan’s Fuji Television said on its website. The report didn’t say where it obtained the information.

Providing Assistance

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin today told reporters in Beijing that while he wasn’t aware of the report, “we have always been providing assistance to the DPRK within our capacity which we think will be conducive to the stability and development of the country.” DPRK is an acronym of North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Kim’s military had over one million soldiers in active duty and 7.7 million reserve troops as of November 2010, today’s report said, citing South Korean Defense Ministry figures. The North operates under a military-first policy and has remained on combat alert since the Korean War ended in 1953 with a truce and not a peace treaty.

North Korea’s population rose to 24.2 million in 2010 from 24.1 million in 2009, about half of South Korea. Inter-Korean trade rose 13.9 percent from a year earlier to $1.9 billion last year, Statistics Korea said.

South Korea plans to set up a fund to raise as much as 55 trillion won to pay for eventual reunification with North Korea, Unification Minister Yu Woo Ik said in an interview with Bloomberg last October.

Read Sangwon Yoon’s full article in Business Week here.

The data in this article was pulled from a recent publication by Statistics Korea (Korean, English). You can read a press release of the publication here (in Korean). You can read the press release in English here (via Google Translate). It is not very good, so if a reader would care to take the time to translate this article, I would appreciate it. You can also download the press release as a .hwp file at the bottom of the article (download a .hwp reader here).

Statistics Korea did set up a North Korea Statistics page which you can see here. Unfortunately, it is only in Korean! I have, however, added it as a link on my North Korean Economic Statistics page.

UPDATE 1: The Daily NK also covered this story with the following report:

The income gap between North and South Korea is becoming ever wider, according to statistics released yesterday by Statistics Korea showing that South Korea’s per capita Gross National Income (GNI) in 2010 was $27,592, 19.3 times that of North Korea at $1,074. Last year the gap was 18.4 times.

In the (legal) foreign trade sector, the two Koreas also lived very differently. South Korea’s 2012 trading volume was $891.6 billion, 212.3 times North Korea’s $4.2 billion. North Korea’s exports were worth just $15 billion, its imports $27 billion.

As expected, North Korea’s trade reliance on China was highly significant (56.9%), partly because as strained inter-Korean relations started to bite, so inter-Korean trade declined as well: from 33.0% in 2009 to 31.4% in 2010.

Meanwhile, 61.0% of adults in South Korea are economically active, a number which rises to 70.2% in North Korea. Conversely, there are 3,134,000 college students in South Korea, but only 510,000 in North Korea.

In the energy industry sector in 2010, South Korea imported 872,415,000 barrels of crude oil, 226.4 times more than North Korea’s 3,854,000. The electricity generating capacity of South Korea is 10.9 times more than that of North Korea, too, though the generated amount was actually around 20 times bigger, the statistics allege.

Automobile production was no better; in South Korea (4,272,000), 1,068 times more than North Korea (4,000). Steel production in South Korea was 46.1 times that of North Korea, cement was 7.6 times more, and fertilizer 6.1 times.

UPDATE 2: The Hankyoreh adds some critiques of the data:

“With inter-Korean relations so tense, it is no longer possible for us to do the kind of North Korean grain production estimates that were possible under the previous administration,” a government official explained on Tuesday.

2010 production figures for rice, corn, barley, beans, and other major grains were left blank in a Statistics Korea report on major statistical indicators in North Korea. The numbers were included in statistical data released in 2008, 2009, and other years.

A Statistics Korea official said, “We made several requests to the organization in charge, but they didn’t provide materials, so we couldn’t print them.” The Rural Development Administration is responsible for investigating North Korean grain production. Early every year, it has estimated and released North Korean grain production figures for the previous year. Since 2011, however, it has failed to release figures.

A government official explained, “Since inter-Korean relations were decent during the previous administration, it was possible to go to the North and get samples to use as a basis for estimates.”

“With inter-Korean exchange all but completely halted under the current administration, the basis for releasing estimates has disappeared,” the official added.

Some observers said the decision was motivated by concerns that South Korean public support for food aid to North Korea could grow if low figures are presented. The argument is that there is no reason the kind of grain production estimates that were possible in 2008 and 2009, while the Lee administration was in office, would not be so for 2010 alone. Observers are also expressing bafflement at the fact that only agricultural products were omitted from estimates at a time when even the number of cars is being estimated in the area of industrial products.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, said, “Recently, food aid negotiations have been taking place between North Korea and the US, and I suspect the government may have decided not to announce [the estimates] because it was too concerned about public sentiment in South Korea.”

The North Korea figures released Tuesday also showed South Korea‘s per capita gross national income of $20,759 to be 19.3 times North Korea’s $174 for 2010.

Posted in China, GDP statistics, Military, Songun, South Korea, Statistics, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

KPA Journal Vol. 2, No. 7

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Joseph Bermudez, now a Senior Analyst with DigitalGlobe’s Analysis Center and author of The Armed Forces of North Korea, has posted the latest issue of KPA Journal. You can download the PDF here.

Topics include: M-1979/M-1989 170 mm Self-propelled Guns (Part II) and “Yu Kyong-su, The Father of KPA Armor Forces.

Note: The satellite imagery used in this journal issue can be found on Google Earth here: 39.750290°, 124.820099°

Posted in Korean People's Army, Military | Comments Closed

North Korean Economy Watch