Archive for the ‘Emigration statistics’ Category

Number of defectors up by around 17 percent in 2016

Wednesday, December 7th, 2016

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Reports Yonhap:

The number of North Korean defectors coming to South Korea rose 16.7 percent on-year in the first 11 months of the year, data showed Wednesday, as more elites and overseas workers chose to flee their home country.

A total of 1,268 North Koreans came to South Korea in the January-November period, compared with 1,086 the previous year, according to the Ministry of Unification.

As of end-November, the total number of North Korean defectors reached 30,062, it showed. The ministry said that the number of North Koreans coming to the South would reach around 1,400 this year, if it grows at the current pace.

The number of defectors reaching the South peaked at 2,914 in 2009, but the pace of growth has slowed down since 2011 as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has strengthened border control and surveillance over the country’s population.

But this year, the pace has picked up, helped by a rise in defections by North Korean elites and workers toiling overseas, the ministry said.

North Korea is pressing its diplomats and overseas workers to send hard currency earnings home as it is squeezed by tough sanctions handed down by the U.N. Security Council.

Unification Minister Hong Yong-pyo said that the imposition of international sanctions has promoted more North Korean elites to escape the regime.

“North Korea is showing a sensitive response to the U.N. sanctions and is being stifled (under the sanctions regime),” Hong said at a forum earlier in the day.

I wonder if there is actual quantitative evidence to back up the claim that the increase is caused by elite defections. The proportion shouldn’t be too hard to count, though I’m currently not aware of statistics on this.

Full article:
Number of N.K. defectors up 16.7 pct on-year in first 11 months
Yonhap News
2016-12-07

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North Korean defector numbers up by 15 percent from last year

Friday, August 5th, 2016

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

After diminishing to relatively low numbers following Kim Jong-un’s ascension to power and tighter controls preventing people from leaving the country, the number of defectors reaching South Korea was 15 percent higher between January and July this year as compared to 2015, Chosun Ilbo reports:

From January thorough July this year some 815 North Koreans fled their country and arrived in the South, up around 15 percent from the same period last year, the Unification Ministry said Tuesday.
This suggests that international sanctions and the resulting economic straits in the repressive North are driving many away. More defectors now come from the elite, which for long thrived while ordinary North Koreans starved.
From 2006 to 2011, some 2,000-plus people fled the North every year, but when Kim took power in 2012 numbers dropped to about 1,500.
Last year the number was down to 1,276. The regime boosted border patrols, forcibly relocated the families of defectors, and meted out tougher punishment for those who aided and abetted defections.

To me, the claim that people are leaving in higher numbers because of sanctions sounds very unlikely, to say the least. Even if sanctions are hitting the economy in a way that most people feel (which is itself doubtful at this time), it is difficult to see that it would be enough to tip the scale toward 15 percent more people defecting. One could argue that the speed battles of the past year may well have done much more to lower the quality of life for most North Koreans than sanctions have, but of course, it is impossible to pinpoint a specific reason for this increase.

Full article:
N.Korean Defections on the Rise Again
Chosun Ilbo
Lee Yong-soo
2016-08-03

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A new defector survey about market trade in North Korea, and what it says (maybe) about Kim Jong-un

Friday, August 28th, 2015

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein 

In Wall Street Journal, Jeyup Kwaak reports on a new defector survey by Seoul National University’s Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (08-26-2015) (added emphasis):

The Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies annually surveys more than 100 North Koreans who defected in the prior calendar year. The results provide firsthand insight into developments in the isolated state, though its researchers said they shouldn’t be read as generalized facts due to the small pool of respondents.

[…]

The latest survey, of 146 North Koreans who escaped in 2014, shows significant growth from the previous year in the number of people saying they conducted private business activities and paid bribes to enable them. A little more than half said they received no money from the state, down from last year’s survey but up from the one released in 2013.

Experts say between half and three-quarters of North Koreans’ income comes from quasi-illegal market activities, such as trade of basic goods smuggled in from China, but sporadic crackdowns by national or regional security officials lead to irregular business and bribery. Defectors say officials often collect fees when they set up a booth at a market.

The results themselves do not present a new trend. Several previous defector studies indicate that markets are perhaps the most important source of income and sustenance for many (if not most) North Koreans. However, a few things are interesting to note.

The links may not be entirely clear, but it is at least symbolic that the current survey, albeit with a very small number of interviewees, suggests that support for Kim Jong-un and the leadership may not be waning, at the same time as market activity continues unabated. This at least calls into question an assumption that sometimes occurs that market trade would lead people to become more critical of the regime.

Again, too much shouldn’t be read too much into a small study with participants that probably are not geographically or socially representative of North Korea as a whole. Defectors as a group rarely are. But perhaps one could imagine that market trade being so institutionalized and regulated by the regime would make it more synonymous with the regime itself. I.e., if market trading is seen as something positive, maybe this reflects positively on the regime as well — perhaps the market has been co-opted.

The article also reminds us of the rather peculiar combination of dynamics seen under Kim Jong-un. On the one hand, market trade seems to continue unabated domestically, and initiatives like the new special economic zones and the agricultural reforms show that there is at the very minimum some new thinking going on.

But on the other hand, border controls have been tightened to a degree rarely seen since the mid-1990s, according to defector reports. Just today, DailyNK reports (in Korean) that resident in the Sino-Korean borderlands have seen their access to the Amnok river, often used for laundry by locals, increasingly restricted as of late. As the WSJ writes,

Just 614 North Koreans made it to the South in the first half of this year, compared with 2,706 in the 2011 calendar year, according to the most recent ministry data.

The drop in North Koreans who visited China on legal visas so far this year should perhaps also be seen in this context.

Taken together, the tightened border controls on the one hand, and the seemingly changing (one could say “progressive”) rhetoric on economic matters on the other, paint a mixed picture.

In the early days of Kim Jong-un, the question was whether he was a reformer or a hardliner. A few years into his rule, it seems he might be neither and both at the same time.

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DPRK emigration numbers in 2015

Sunday, July 5th, 2015

According to Yonhap:

The portion of female North Korean defectors topped 80 percent this year, government data showed Sunday, apparently because North Korean women are under less severe scrutiny by the communist country.

The number of female North Koreans who came to the South reached 444 in the January-May period, accounting for 83 percent of the 535 North Koreans who came to the South, according to the unification ministry.

The data was compiled tentatively as the government’s background checks for North Korean defectors have not been completed, it said. Around 30,000 North Koreans have defected to South Korea in search of freedom so far.

Since the portion of female North Korean defectors topped the 50 percent mark for the first time in 2002, the weight has been on the rise, the data showed.

In particular, since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un took office in late 2011, the portion has increased above the 70 percent mark. The corresponding data reached 75.6 percent in 2013 and came in at 78.2 percent in 2014.

Experts said that it might be easier for women to flee the communist country as they are relatively less scrutinized by North Korean authorities.

Meanwhile, the number of North Koreans who defect to the South has been on the decline since 2011, the data showed.

In 2014, the number of defectors reached 1,396, down 48.4 percent from 2011, it said.

“Regardless of sex, the number of North Korean defectors has been falling,” a unification ministry official said. “The trend is likely to continue this year as well.”

While the number of North Koreans coming south has been on the decline since Kim Jong-un came to power, there has been a flurry of media reports recently that indicate that the number of high-level defectors leaving the country is on the increase.

According to the Chosun Ilbo (2015-7-2):

About a dozen senior North Korean officials have defected in recent years because they feared for their lives in leader Kim Jong-un’s purges, a source said Wednesday.

The defectors were working in China and Southeast Asia, some charged with earning hard currency for the regime.

Several have already arrived in South Korea while others are staying in a third country.

Early this year, a mid-ranking official who had been dispatched to Hong Kong from Room 39, a Workers Party office that handles Kim’s slush funds, sought asylum in South Korea with his family.

He reportedly told investigators here he was terrified of Kim’s draconian purges, which saw senior officials executed by anti-aircraft gun, and that officials left in North Korea find it almost impossible to flee because of tight controls but those working overseas can find some opportunities to defect.

Last year, a senior official of Taesong Bank, who had handled Kim’s slush funds in Siberia, fled to South Korea with millions of dollars. Even a senior official of the State Security Department fled the North and arrived here. According to the National Security Service here, the defection particularly upset Kim.

An army general has been staying in a third country since he fled the North recently, according to sources. The general was reportedly involved in the two inter-Korean summits in 2000 and 2007.

The defections highlight the climate of fear among senior apparatchiks since the brutal execution of Kim’s uncle and one-time eminence grise Jang Song-taek, as well as that of former armed forces minister Hyon Yong-chol.

In a report to the National Assembly, the NIS claimed that the North executed more than 70 senior party, government and military officials by firing squad since Kim took power.

And According to Yonhap (2015-7-6):

North Korea may continue to see its officials desert the communist country to settle abroad down the road, but the exodus is not likely to lead to the collapse of the regime, experts said Monday.

North Korea is believed to be coping with an increased number of defections by government officials as of late with frequent fears of purging and punishment haunting North Korean officials under leader Kim Jong-un.

About 10 North Korean military and party officials have reportedly fled the communist country recently in their pursuit of asylum in South Korea or in a third country.

Those defectors reportedly included a mid-ranking North Korean party official who sought asylum in the South with his family early this year while he was managing slush funds in Hong Kong for leader Kim.

Another high-ranking military official also reportedly has been staying in a country outside of South and North Korea since fleeing the communist country.

The recent outflow may continue in the future as more officials terrified of Kim’s “reign of terror” are likely to renounce their allegiance to the communist country, experts noted.

“For the time being, North Korean officials are likely to continue to flee the communist country or seek asylum, which would weaken the regime of the North’s leader Kim Jong-un,” said Chang Yong-seok, a researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, also noted, “Desertion by these people may take place intermittently in the process of solidifying the Kim Jong-un regime and securing the regime’s stability.”

Since taking power in late 2011 after his father Kim Jong-il’s sudden death, the junior Kim has resorted to unusually brutal means to solidify his power base.

In late 2013, Jang Song-thaek, the husband of Kim’s aunt and once the country’s second most powerful official, was executed on charges of treason, along with many other officials with close ties with Jang.

Former defense chief Hyon Yong-chol was also purged in late April apparently due to his disloyalty to Kim.

Still, experts stressed that the terror-driven exodus may not immediately lead to a collapse of the Kim regime although it is likely to resort to military provocations outside the country in order to quell potential political instability inside.

“If Kim’s reign of terror prolongs, his governing style could bring about an instability in the communist country,” said Jung Sang-don, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA). “Then, there is a possibility that North Korea could make provocations in a bid to tide over its internal problems.”

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, also dismissed the view that a series of defections by officials meant instability in Kim’s regime, saying that there have been no signs of abnormal activities among the North Korean military power or other citizens.

Here is coverage in the Korea Times.

Read the full story here:
Portion of female N. Korean defectors tops 80 pct this year: data
Yonhap
2015-7-5

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Lankov on the cost of emigrating

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

1,516 North Koreans who arrived in South Korea in 2013–approximately the 2012 number. In 2011, 2,706 defected. Why the drop off? Lankov writes in NK News:

From 2010-11, the number of military patrols on the hitherto poorly protected border with China increased dramatically. Military personnel are also frequently rotated to ensure that soldiers do not develop overly cozy relations with the locals, and severe punishments for graft have been introduced.

Additionally, in 2010 Chinese authorities – obviously prompted by the North Koreans – began to build a tall wire fence along the border with North Korea. This fence is not a formidable obstacle, nonetheless it still makes the act of crossing the border more risky. The construction of the fence was completed in 2012, so nowadays the border between two states appears much better protected than ever.

The “defection market” reacted to the new situation in the most certain way. In the past one could cross the border for free or, at worst, would pay the border guards a small bribe of $30-50 (smugglers had to pay a bit more). Now the price increased to the hitherto unthinkable $3,000-5,000 – and one still has to pay an additional $3,000 to a professional guide who will ensure safe transit to a South Korean embassy in Mongolia or Southeast Asia. The steep rise indicates how much more dangerous the defection has become under the new conditions. It also means that that even under the best possible circumstances one needs some $8,000-9,000 to arrange even a simple defection.

In the original article, Lankov also discusses other tactics used to reduce the number of defections.

Read the full story here:
North-South migration, part 4: After 2011, the stream dries out again?
NK News
Andrei Lankov
2014-2-19

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DPRK visitors to China in 2013

Tuesday, January 21st, 2014

UPDATE 2 (2014-1-21): According to Yonhap:

The number of North Korean visitors to China rose about 11 percent on-year to top 200,000 for the first time in 2013, Chinese government data showed Tuesday, in the latest sign that the flow of people between the allies was unaffected by geopolitical tensions.

About 206,600 North Koreans traveled to China last year, compared with 186,000 in 2012, the data from China’s National Tourism Administration showed.

It was the first time that the annual number of North Korean tourists to China exceeded 200,000 since the Chinese tourism administration began releasing data in 2005.

NK News reports additional data:

93,300 work visas were given to North Korean citizens[.]

Goeffrey See comments that part of the increase can be explained by repeat travelers.

Read the full story here:
N. Korean tourists to China rise 11 pct in 2013
Yonhap
2014-1-21

Work visas for North Koreans going to China up 17.2%
NK News
Oliver Hoffman
2014-1-21

UPDATE 1 (2013-7-18): According to the Japan Times:

The overall number of visitors to China dropped 5.2 percent to 12.75 million in the six-month period.

But North Korean visitors to China increased 11.7 percent to 99,100, the highest since 2005 on a first-half basis.

Nearly half of the North Koreans came to China to work, mainly at factories and restaurants. These North Koreans are low-cost labor for China, while the data signal that North Korea continues to actively use its manpower to earn foreign currency.

Read More here:
China sees 26% fewer Japanese visitors in first half but North Korean arrivals up by 12%
Japan Times
2013-7-18

ORIGINAL POST (2013-4-26): Number of DPRK visitors to China up 14% in first quarter 2013. According to Yonhap:

About 45,800 North Koreans traveled to China, the North’s closest ally, in the January-March period, compared with 40,200 recorded in the same period in 2012, according to the report by the Washington-based Voice of America (VOA), which cited data from China.

The increase is seen as showing that North Korea-China relations have not been disturbed by China’s recent shift to take an active role in implementing the U.N. sanctions against the North, adopted following the country’s December rocket launch and its third nuclear test on Feb. 12.

The majority of the North Korean travelers to China, 48.3 percent, crossed the border to work in the world’s second-biggest economy and 25.8 percent went there for business purposes, according to the report. Only 1.5 percent were on trips to China for tourism.

Out of the total visitors, 78 percent were male North Koreans while 44.5 percent of the total were aged between 45 and 64.

Read the full story here:
Number of N. Korean visitors to China up 14 pct in Q1
Yonhap
2013-4-26

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2013 DPRK defection numbers

Thursday, January 2nd, 2014

UPDATE 1 (2014-1-13): Yonhap reports on the 2013 defection numbers:

The [Ministry of Unification], which handles inter-Korean affairs, said a total of 1,516 North Koreans settled in South Korea in 2013, up slightly from 2012 when 1,502 North Koreans arrived in the South, with women accounting for 76 percent of the total.

The ministry said South Korea is now home to 26,124 North Koreans.

And according to the Daily NK:

A total of 1516 North Koreans sought refuge in South Korea last year, bringing the total number of defectors living in the South to 26,124, 69% of whom are female.

ORIGINAL POST (2014-1-2): The Hankyoreh offers some decent data on DPRK defectors entering South Korea in 2013:

An estimated 1,500 North Korean refugees entered South Korea in 2013.

The estimate, which is roughly equivalent to the 2012 total, shows that the number has dwindled to less than 2,000 annually for the two years since Kim Jong-un took power in Pyongyang.

According to a Dec. 25 announcement by the Ministry of Unification, a total of 1,420 refugees had received protection authorization following government questioning as of November 2013. When the individuals currently undergoing questioning are factored in, the total number of refugees entering the country for the year is expected to be around 1,500 – roughly equivalent to the 1,502 refugees who came to South Korea in 2012.

The number would bring the total refugees arriving since the 1990s up to 26,100. The annual tally of refugees passed 2,000 for the first time in 2006. For five years, it remained in the 2,000 to 3,000 range, with 2,548 in 2007, 2,805 in 2008, 2,929 in 2009, 2,402 in 2010, and 2,706 in 2011.

But in 2012, the year the Kim Jong-un regime took over, the total fell to 1,500 a year, a drop of approximately 500 to 1,500.

Analysts said the decrease under the Kim regime was likely tied to stronger border defense aimed at securing the regime, along with more aggressive anti-defection policies, including actions to repatriate those who crossed the border.

Indeed, North Korea is known to have markedly stepped up its border defense since just after the 2011 death of Kim’s father and predecessor Kim Jong-il.

Another possible reason given for the drop was an improvement in food and economic conditions in North Korea in 2012 and 2013.

Meanwhile, North Korea continues to adopt a proactive policy of readmitting refugees who left for South Korea. In 2013 alone, thirteen defected opted to leave the South to return to the North.

While I am perfectly willing to admit that some DPRK defectors living in the ROK might have returned home, I believe it is not accurate to assert “thirteen defected opted to leave the South to return to the North” without mentioning that the DPRK has the ability to threaten family members who remained in the North to draw defectors back to the land of their birth.

Read the full story here:
Total number has dipped since Kim Jong-un took power due to tighter border control and N. Korea welcoming some refugees back
Hankyoreh
Kim Kyu-won
2014-1-2

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DPRK National Nutrition Survey final report

Tuesday, March 19th, 2013

The official UN web page is here.

Here is the description:

Conducted in all provinces of DPRK from September 17th to October 17th, 2012, the National Nutrition Survey was a joint collaboration between DPRK Government, involving the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Child Nutrition Institute, the MOPH and the National Coordination Committee as well as WHO, WFP and UNICEF.

Amongst others, the results of the survey show that Stunting remains an area of great concern in DPRK. About 28% of Korean children are stunted (Chronic Malnutrition) with provincial disparities. Acute malnutrition (4%) is present and varies according to provinces but even if the prevalence is not alarming, support is still needed to treat these children because of the high mortality risk associated with acute malnutrition. The survey also provides detail on children’s and women’s feeding practices.

You can download a PDF of the report here.

I have added this report to my “DPRK Economics Statistics Page”.

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DPRK visitors to China in 2012

Friday, January 18th, 2013

UPDATE 1 (2013-1-18): According to the Daily NK:

The number of North Koreans visiting China legally reached a record high of 180,600 in 2012, an 18% increase over the 2011 figure of 152,300.

Radio Free Asia released the news today, citing Chinese statistics. According to the report, the most common reason for the visits was ‘employment’ (79,600, 44%) followed by ‘business’ (55,200, 31%).

The number visiting China for ‘business’ increased by roughly 10,900 over the 2011 figure, while the number of those visiting for ‘employment’ increased by 4,300.

According to RFA, “This is because of the greater number of exchanges and joint ventures going on between North Korea and China in the economic sector.”

Elsewhere in the statistics, 4,500 (2.5%) North Koreans also visited China last year for purposes of tourism and leisure, and 200 (0.1%) went to visit friends and relatives.

Read the full story here:
Legal North Korean Visitor Numbers Rise
Daily NK
Jeong Dae Sung
2013-1-18

ORIGINAL POST (2012-4-24): Number of visitors up in first quarter of 2012. According to Yonhap (via Korea Times):

The number of North Koreans visiting China in the first three months of the year surged more than 40 percent from a year ago, with the majority arriving for employment or business purposes, a report said Tuesday.

A total of 40,200 North Koreans visited the neighboring country in the first quarter, up 40.5 percent on-year, according to the Voice of America, which quoted data from the China National Tourism Administration.

About half, or 19,300 visitors, were seeking work in China’s manufacturing and dining industries, while another 10,800 visitors arrived for business purposes, the report said. Only 1,100 North Koreans toured China for sightseeing.

By age group, 19,100 visitors were aged between 45 and 64, followed by 17,200 people who were aged between 25 and 44.

Ferries transported the highest number of passengers at 17,400, while 9,300 people traveled by automobile.

The number of male visitors came to 33,200, or 83 percent of the total, far exceeding the number of females.

The data did not include defectors or other North Korean visitors who arrived by unofficial means, the report said.

See a report of North Korean visitors to China in 2011 here.

Read the full story here:
NK visitors to China swell in first quarter
Yonhap (via Korea Times)
2012-4-24

 

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DPRK imports CCTV cameras

Monday, January 14th, 2013

According to the Choson Ilbo:

North Korea is tightening surveillance of the population using tens of thousands of Chinese-made surveillance cameras. According to Chinese customs data, the North imported a total of 16,420 CCTV cameras worth about US$1.66 million from China from January to November last year.

In 2009, the first year China published statistics on bilateral trade, the North imported a whopping 40,465 surveillance cameras from China. In 2010 the figure was 22,987 and in 2011 22,118. Altogether the North has imported over 100,000 cameras worth about $10 million.

Meanwhile, crude oil and oil products were the major products the North imported from China between January and November last year with a total value US$526 million. Next came naphtha products ($101.7 million), cargo trucks ($92.2 million), and flour ($58.8 million).

Read the full story here:
Chinese Cameras Help N.Korean Regime’s Surveillance
Choson Ilbo
2013-1-14

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