Delegates arrive in Pyongyang for WPK conference

September 27th, 2010

North Korea has released official photos of the delegates arriving at the Pyongyang train station for tomorrow’s party conference.  I have posted them below.  All photos via Daylife.com.

Caption: A man walks past a sign in Pyongyang September 26, 2010. North Korea’s ruling party will hold its biggest meeting in decades on September 28 to pick a new leadership, state media reported on September 21, and likely anoint an heir to the dynasty as Kim Jong-il’s health deteriorates. The sign reads, “Congratulations. Conference of the Worker’s Party of Korea”. Picture taken September 26, 2010.

Caption: In this photo released by Korean Central News Agency via Korea News Service, delegates to the ruling Worker’s Party meeting make their way upon arriving at Pyongyang station, North Korea, on Monday Sept. 27, 2010. North Korea holds its biggest political meeting in decades Tuesday, amid intense speculation that members of leader Kim Jong Il’s family will assume key positions in the ruling party to solidify their rule for another generation.

Caption: Party delegates from rural areas arrive to attend a meeting of the ruling Worker’s Party of Korea in Pyongyang September 26, 2010, in this picture released by North Korea’s KCNA news agency on September 27, 2010. North Korea’s ruling party will hold its biggest meeting in decades on September 28 to pick a new leadership, state media reported on September 21, and likely anoint an heir to the dynasty as Kim Jong-il’s health deteriorates. Picture taken September 26, 2010.

Caption: Party delegates from rural areas arrive to attend a meeting of the ruling Worker’s Party of Korea in Pyongyang September 26, 2010. North Korea’s ruling party will hold its biggest meeting in decades on September 28 to pick a new leadership, state media reported on September 21, and likely anoint an heir to the dynasty as Kim Jong-il’s health deteriorates. Picture taken September 26, 2010.

Additional Information:

1. The New York Times covered the arrival.  Read the story here.

2. Mike has more at NK Leadership Watch.

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“Rubber-stamping” party conference update

September 26th, 2010

Andrei Lankov writes in the Korea Times:

So, the third conference of the Korean Workers Party is officially scheduled to open on Tuesday ― at least, this is what the North Korean media reported last week.

The conference is expected to announce the new leadership which, at all probability, will include Kim Jong-il’s third son and his likely successor Kim Jong-un. The young man, now in his late 20s, will be formally introduced to the people and, perhaps, formally anointed as a “genius of leadership, fully capable of continuing the great Juche revolutionary tradition” (I am not sure about wording, but it will be flowery enough).

However, why do they need a party conference to have this announcement? Yes, it is true that Kim Jong-il himself was once anointed by a party congress (an enlarged version of a party conference) in 1980. But, on the other hand, when Kim Jong-il’s final promotion to the supreme leadership after his father’s death and three years of mourning took place in 1997, the North Korean autocrats did not bother to hold a conference or congress.

The coming conference might be another signal of a trend which was discussed by Pyongyang watchers recently: after years of relative neglect, Party is beginning to make a comeback.

Indeed, North Korea was initially established to be a typical Leninist party-state. In such a state, the Central Committee, as party’s central headquarters were known, controls everything and is clearly above the government, even though the Constitution does not even have references to such institutions as “Central Committee” or “Politburo.”

On paper, the Central Committee is a group of few hundred top bureaucrats who are elected by a party congress or party conference and who are supposed meet a few times a year to have the so-called “plenary session,” and also to elect a small permanent standing committee, known as Politburo.

However, as many other formal arrangements, those are seriously misleading. To start with, party congress or conference does not really elect candidates, but obediently and unanimously (always unanimously) vote for a pre-arranged list. Second, the infrequent ‘plenary sessions’ of the Central Committee are formal and ritualistic affairs, where participants sometimes hint at real issues but much more frequently spend time professing their loyalty to the current leadership. A communist state is run not by the “Central Committee” as such, but by its “Secretariat,” a large bureaucratic institution, whose top officials are appointed by the Politburo and/or party’s leader.

So, the top bureaucracy in a communist state is self-appointed. Politburo and its top leader appoint the Secretariat officials who are managing the country and those, in turn, appoint officials at lower levels. Usually, it is the top leader who makes most important decisions, but if a leader is weak, or absent, or just died, the Politburo (about dozen people, usually) can act as a collective dictator.

If the country is run by Politburo and Secretariat bureaucrats alone, why does it need to held congresses and the Central Committee “plenary sessions”? This is a good question. In the Soviet Union by some reasons they never asked this question and continued with the meaningless routine of congresses and plenary sessions.

In North Korea the leaders showed themselves to be more pragmatic and for a while it looked as if they decided to get rid of these formalities altogether. The last congress took place in 1980. The last party conference took place in 1966. It seems certain that after the death of his father in 1994, Kim Jong-il never even bothered to call a plenary session of the Central Committee and run the country via party bureaucracy which he appointed at will and with complete disregard for formalities.

And now we see the revival of the old (and, frankly, purely decorative) tradition. Why is it happening? The most likely explanation is that the old guard, the North Korean aging top bureaucrats, now have to think what will happen after the death of Kim Jong-il whose health seems to be deteriorating fast. Their major worry is, first, how to keep the country under control and, second, how to preserve one’s own power and privilege.

If this is the case, an existence of formally “elected” and hence more legitimate Central Committee will help. It is also remarkable that the person who seems to be best positioned to become the Prince Regent, Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law Cang Song-taek, is clearly a party man who cannot rely on the military to legitimize his power.

So, it is possible that in the next few years we will see a lot of the good old political shows, which the world has not seen since the collapse of the communist bloc. We will see party congresses, and Central Committee plenary sessions, and a lot of “elections” (with pre-arranged results). The party might be coming back, even though it is not clear whether it will make any difference as long as the actual policy is concerned.

Previous posts on the delay in the conference opening can be found here.

Read the full story here:
Rubber-stamping session
Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
9/26/2010

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Rason: beyond Pyongyang lies a different world

September 26th, 2010

Michael Rank writes in the Guardian:

If Pyongyang is North Korea’s showpiece city – albeit an empty and forbidding place – then the country’s interior is something else altogether.

In this desolate city [Rason] 800 kilometres from the capital, the main square turns to a sea of mud in the rain, and there are no street lights so it’s impossible to avoid the puddles at night.

Rason is 50km from the border with China, over a twisting dirt track through the mountains, but it could be another planet.

The cities on the Chinese side are frenetic with activity, skyscrapers sprouting like mushrooms in the rain and traffic jams unavoidable. Rason couldn’t be more different, stuck in a Stalinist time warp. Traffic chiefly consists of ox carts and Chinese lorries. Roads are repaired by teams of workers armed with shovels and picks.

Tourists are a rarity, just 20 so far this year and none at all in 2009, according to Simon Cockerell of Beijing-based Koryo Tours, which specialises in travel to North Korea.

Officially this is a “free economic and trade zone”. In practice that special designation doesn’t appear to make much difference.

The overwhelming majority of those who do venture in are Chinese, many of them lured by the area’s only apparent growth industry – a glittering casino and hotel built by a Hong-Kong multimillionaire.

The Emperor casino was supposed to have shut its doors in 2005 after a senior Chinese transport official gambled away more than 3.5 million yuan (£340,000), much of it public money.

But a few dozen Chinese were observed gambling in the smoky windowless rooms on the top floor of the venue on a recent evening.

Near the casino there is a small island that is linked to the mainland by a short causeway where tourists can relax over a seafood lunch consisting of raw sea urchins, chargrilled octopus and squid washed down with Chinese beer.

Not that Rason is awash with produce. In the 1990s, an acute famine killed many thousands. Although the worst is over, millions continue to go hungry and in Rason a British- charity, Love North Korean Children, makes enormous efforts to ensure that children in the area get enough to eat.

The charity feeds 2,500 children a day, and the youngsters in the Hahyeon nursery school looked well nourished when this reporter visited. But George Rhee, the charity’s founder and powerhouse, stressed that without the steamed buns his bakery provides “all these children would go hungry”.

Rason’s remoteness means it is easier to evade the central government’s relentless grip and benefit from trade, legal and illicit, with nearby China.

North Korea officially maintains the fiction that all economic activity is state-run. It therefore bans foreigners from visiting private markets which help to relieve dire shortages of even staple foods.

Yet during our visit, the Guardian was encouraged to shop in the market for crab for supper, which was cooked in a local restaurant. Apart from seafood, the market also sells cigarettes and alcohol imported from China.

For travellers who like to learn about their surroundings from the locals, North Korea is probably not the best destination.

The Guardian was closely manmarked by minders and ignored by locals. Local officials have been hoping to attract more tourists to Rason by building a golf course and racetrack, but it is hard to imagine these ever materialising in such an isolated and impoverished location.

Read the full story here:
North Korea: beyond the capital lies a different world
The Guardian
Michael Rank
9/26/2010

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Choson Exchange Update

September 26th, 2010

According to Choson Exchange:

Post-Lecture Brief on North Korea’s Economy/Business Environment

This is our report from our lecture series on Finance and Economic Strategy in Pyongyang. It captures things we learn that will enable us to provide better training, and helps to inform readers on North Korea’s business and economic environment. Highlights are below.

Need and demand for skills upgrading: Lecturers agreed that there is a strong need for training as participants’ financial knowledge and skills, with a few exceptions, are shallow. This is also reinforced by our survey findings. More importantly, participants expressed strong interest in further training programs, which is not always the case in North Korea.

Managing Knowledge-Based Economies & FDI of key interest: Based on discussions with participants, knowledge-based economies and the management of FDI inflows are of great interest to our audience.

Newly-formed economic institution non-operational as yet: An institution meant to play a key role in economic development and was formed in recent years have not yet become operational.

Choson Exchange also received some coverage in the Korea Times:

While the outside world has been keen to know what was going on inside North Korea regarding the unfulfilled high drama of a key Workers’ Party conference, a group of foreigners actually stayed in Pyongyang during that time, meeting with top officials such as Choe Thae-bok, secretary of the Workers’ Party Central Committee.

“Choe Thae-bok highly commended our work and sent the president of Kim Chaek University and the vice president of the State Academy of Sciences to meet with us privately,” said Geoffrey See, a Singaporean, who led an international group of 11 people, hailing from the United States, the U.K., New Zealand, China, and Malaysia.

Besides the group’s diverse country representations, their academic credentials are also pretty impressive. See is a recent Yale graduate. The others are from universities such as Oxford, M.I.T, and University of Chicago.

They were not in North Korea for political purposes, but their presence attracted enough attention from North Koreans. Reporters from the North’s official Korean Central News Agency also tagged along with them.

Apparently, the North Koreans were quite impressed by their academic backgrounds too. “The North Korean official would introduce us to others by saying: `This person is from this university.’ And people would respond: ‘Oh, I heard about the name of the school!’” See said.

What See and his friends are doing now may not hit the international headlines. But it’s potentially a very significant step that may have a lasting implication for the future of the world’s most isolated nation.

See is the director of the Choson Exchange, a non-profit organization that provides training to North Koreans in international finance, economics and law.

“North Koreans need some kind of help in these areas,” See said in an interview at a coffee shop in Beijing Friday afternoon.

In Pyongyang, See and his group members taught North Koreans how to use computers for e-training in finance. They also offered lectures on the U.S. subprime crisis and the possibility of the Chinese yuan as an international trade settlements currency.

Although North Korea is under international sanctions, what See’s group does is not illegal as they only offer educational training and don’t do business with North Koreans.

In interacting in an “up-close and personal” manner, See and his group discovered something surprising. “The North Koreans were actually quite sophisticated people. They know what’s happening in the outside world,” said a financial analyst who went to Pyongyang with See, but preferred not to be identified.

All people in the Choson Exchange work on a volunteer basis. For their North Korean trip, they bought their own airplane tickets, and paid for meals and lodgings too. They also have full-time jobs as bankers, consultants, lawyers and Ph.D. students.

Naturally, a question arises as to “why” they do all this?

“We get this question a lot,” said See. “Very few outside people are involved in North Korea today. We want to provide training and make a greater impact,” he said.

“The financial institutions we met are very keen to have us train them and help build the institutions ― especially the newly formed State Development Bank. There is an incredible demand for training,” See said.

Ultimately, the members of the Choson Exchange want their efforts to be part of a greater humanitarian engagement crusade to help North Korea to become integrated into the international community.

Adventurism and personal intellectual curiosity about the “veiled country” was part of their drive as well. “North Korea is opaque, which makes it even more interesting. It fascinates me,” said the financial analyst.

While being frank about their motivations, they were also cautious about not to be seen as naive either. “We don’t want to be seen as a young and idealistic bunch,” said See, who will spend several months at the Kim Il-sung University starting from March next year to share Singapore’s economic development model.

While they are committed to a long and determined effort, they are financially crunched. “What we need most at this time is more funding. We need at least two full-time staffers who will manage our administrative work,” said See, who also hopes to sponsor some North Koreans for overseas training programs.

It’s not clear whether See’s effort of helping North Korea to “come out” will work eventually.

“We don’t assume that they will open up,” See said. “But if you don’t try, you never know.”

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Conference of WPK to Be Held Sep. 28

September 21st, 2010

According to KCNA:

Pyongyang, September 21 (KCNA) — The Preparatory Committee for the Conference of the Workers’ Party of Korea made public as follows as regards the party conference:

The meetings of delegates of the party committees of the Korean People’s Army and provincial (political bureau), city (district) and county party committees took place to elect delegates to the conference of the WPK against the background of a high-pitched drive for effecting a new great revolutionary surge now under way on all fronts for building a thriving nation with the historic conference of the WPK and its 65th birthday approaching.

The meetings of delegates of the party committees of the KPA and provincial (political bureau) party committees elected General Secretary Kim Jong Il as delegate to the conference of the WPK representing the unanimous will of all the members of the party, servicepersons of the KPA and people.

The meetings elected working people and officials who have displayed patriotic devotion at the work sites for effecting a fresh revolutionary surge, remaining intensely loyal to the party and revolution as delegates to the conference.

The meetings once again powerfully demonstrated the might of our revolutionary ranks in which all the servicepersons and people are single-mindedly united around the headquarters of the revolution headed by Kim Jong Il.

The conference of the WPK for electing its supreme leadership body will take place in Pyongyang on Sept. 28.

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Caleb Mission

September 20th, 2010

According to Voice of America:

A little-known South Korean Christian group is doing its best to expand what outsiders know about neighboring North Korea. The Caleb Mission has gained some recognition in recent months for releasing clandestine video of life inside the reclusive North. And now it has provided VOA with what it says is a secret North Korean military manual that regional security analysts consider authentic.

One of South Korea’s smallest and most obscure religious communities is making a name for itself by providing rare glimpses of life inside North Korea, and revealing some of its secrets.

Reverend Kim Sung-eun runs the Caleb Mission in Cheonan, about 80 kilometers south of the capital, Seoul. His wife, he says, is a former lieutenant in North Korea’s army. She is one of 30 or so defectors from the North who are frequently seen at the mission.

Kim says he is in regular contact with collaborators inside North Korea. Some secretly videotape what is going on in the country, which is virtually sealed off from the outside world. Others, he says, smuggle out official documents.

The pastor gave VOA a partial copy of what appears to be a 2005 North Korean military manual that details electronic warfare countermeasures, such as using radar-absorbing paint to camouflage jets and ships.

He did not go into detail about how the Caleb Mission acquired the manual, but U.S. and South Korean officials who have seen it consider the document authentic.

A South Korean newspaper also has obtained part of the manual and has reported on its contents.

Kim says they decided to release the manual because their colleagues inside North Korea are taking great risks by working on their projects. Thus, he explains, he wants to see some recognition for their efforts.

Daniel Pinkston, a long-time North Korea scholar and an analyst in Seoul for the International Crisis Group, considers the document important. “It’s certainly useful for analysts on the outside. And I would agree anyone in North Korea, any KPA (Korean People’s Army) soldiers or officers who would smuggle such a document out of the country, if they were to be caught, would suffer serious consequences. It would be a great risk to them, of course,” he said.

In communist North Korea, those suspected of disloyalty face imprisonment. Convictions for treason or espionage – and many lesser offenses – usually mean a death sentence.

At Caleb Mission, Kim says he has or can gain access to other sensitive materials, including videos and documents, but he needs to provide compensation to those who risk their lives to provide it.

He hopes that by releasing the information more widely in South Korea, he can generate funds to pay his collaborators in the impoverished North.

Kim says he has information detailing North Korean-sanctioned manufacturing and exporting of illicit drugs and the country’s extensive network of internment and re-education camps for political prisoners.

The U.S. State Department has warned in the past that North Korea was involved in drug trafficking.

Analyst Pinkston says the apparent willingness of North Koreans to provide such documentation – whatever the motives – could be a significant signal of societal change. “If we see more of these things coming out – materials, information, people – especially from the military, then that could be a sign of some breakdown in discipline and control. I’m not saying that’s the case here,” he states, “but when we do see these things coming out, that’s something we have to think about.”

North Korean media unfailingly praise Kim Jong Il and his father, the country’s first leader, creating a personality cult that dominates the government. The state controls almost all aspects of life, including food supplies, access to the media and employment.

Human rights groups consider North Korea to be one of the most repressive nations in the world. The government also has struggled for nearly 20 years to feed its people. After the collapse of communist governments in Europe, which had supported the North financially, its economy has nearly collapsed and it relies heavily on international food aid to avoid mass starvation.

Change, however, could be coming to North Korea. A rare meeting of the ruling Workers Party is expected to start soon to fill leadership slots. Many North Korea experts believe supreme leader Kim Jong Il will name his third son, Kim Jong Un, to a prominent post as part of grooming him to be his successor. The son is believed to be about 27 years old and has yet held no official position.

There are reports, however, of growing dissatisfaction among North Koreans about passing power to a young, little-known member of the Kim family.

The country faces renewed food shortages and continuing economic instability. In addition, its people are increasingly aware – through clandestine exposure to outside news media – of the huge gap between their country and most of the rest of the world, especially neighboring South Korea.

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South Korea to send hundreds of additional workers to Kaesong

September 20th, 2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-09-20-1
9-20-2010

The South Korean Ministry of Unification announced on September 14 that the number of ROK workers allowed in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, previously limited to fewer than 600, would be increased by two to three hundred. In response to the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan, the South Korean government limited inter-Korean economic cooperation through the May 24 Measure, sharply cutting the number of South Korean workers in the joint industrial complex from around 1,000 down to 500. However, after companies in the complex voiced complaints over production losses caused by the measure, the government slightly raised the number of workers allowed, to 600, in mid-July. With this latest decision, the number will return to almost as many as were working prior to the May 24 Measure. This is the first sanction among those passed on May 24 to be practically rescinded.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Unification stated, “Companies in the KIC have been complaining about growing difficulties in maintaining quality and of worker fatigue due to the reduction of employees [allowed in the complex],” and announced that the ministry had decided to increase the number of workers since it sees no physical threat to them. This announcement came as inter-Korean relations, which took a sharp turn for the worse after the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan, appear to be improving, with North Korea returning South Korean fishermen seized last month, the ROK Red Cross decision on September 13 to send disaster relief in response to flooding in the North, and working-level discussions on a reunion for separated families being held. However, the spokesperson also stated that although the number of workers allowed to travel to North Korea was being increased, no new or additional investments were being allowed in the KIC, as originally dictated by the May 24 Measure.

Even before the announcement to increase the number of workers in the KIC, the South Korean government had shown flexibility when it came to the May 24 Measure; contracts made before the measure were honored, and North Korean manufactured and agricultural goods have continued to be imported under agreements reached before the sanctions. The government was flexible on humanitarian aid, as well, continuing to provide assistance to the most destitute in North Korea despite the decision to suspend aid on principle. Medical aid, particularly to prevent the spread of Malaria, has also continued. Recently, the South Korean government decided to allow the ROK Red Cross to send 5,000 tons of rice and 10,000 tons of cement, worth approximately 100 million won, to North Korea in response to massive flooding. This is the first time since the Lee Myung-bak administration came to power that any rice aid has been sent to the North. It is very likely that it will be sent as private-sector aid.

Seoul continues to ban visits to North Korea, but private-sector organizations have been allowed to travel to the Kaesong region. Despite the May 24 Measure, exceptions have been made for South Koreans involved with economic cooperation in the KIC and the Mount Keumgang areas. Among the sanctions passed in May, the ban on North Korean ships operating in South Korean waters and the ban on new investment in the North are still being enforced, but the suspension of inter-Korean exchanges, travel to the North, and provision of humanitarian aid have all been eased.

Among the Ministry of National Defense measures, the only psychological warfare tactic employed has been through radio broadcasts, while the distribution of leaflets and the broadcasting over loudspeakers were canceled after North Korean protests. Joint U.S.-ROK anti-submarine warfare exercises in the West Sea were postponed, while the U.S. put on a show of force with the deployment of an aircraft carrier to the East Sea in late July. Maritime interdiction drills led by the ROK military are planned for mid-October. The South Korean government insists that the May 24 Measure continues to stand unchanged, yet the enforcement and execution of the details is less than uniform.

The government’s position is that the restriction on workers in the KIC was not a sanction aimed at North Korea, but rather, a measure to protect South Korean workers; therefore, easing this restriction cannot be seen as a lifting of the May 24 Measure. Ultimately, it appears that a slight improvement in inter-Korean relations has led to a small amount of flexibility in implementing the May 24 Measure, but that the government will continue to enforce the measure until North Korea takes responsibility for sinking the ROKS Cheonan.

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German entrepreneurs in DPRK

September 17th, 2010

The German version of the Financial Times has published an interview (of sorts) with Volker Eloesser and his DPRK JV technology firm, Nosotek. Below I have posted an English translation of the article.

FT: You think the economy in North Korea is starving. That is right! Nevertheless, it attracts entrepreneurs there like Eloesser Volker from Germany. He tells Anna Lu the story of his life in the land of Kim Jong-il.

North Korea is one of the most isolated and inaccessible countries in the world. Nevertheless, there are millions of university trained Koreans and entrepreneurs living in the country. Volker Eloesser is one of the entrepreneurs. Eloesser runs a company in Pyongyang. The IT company is known as Nosotek and is a joint venture with the North Korean state. It is not very simple to talk to Eloesser about his life and work in North Korea. The lines are too unstable to North Korea, with numerous eavesdroppers. Not everything can be talked about openly. The following article is the outcome of countless emails between Pyongyang and Hamburg.

VE: “Why do we work in North Korea? There are signs that the country can develop into a booming region. Recently, a short report about the iPad was broadcast. Videos from South Korea are widely circulated amongst students. The policy change may not be imminent, but it is unstoppable. Once that happens, property prices will increase.

This is the strategy of most foreign companies here: Real estate speculation, even if the permits for foreigners are only granted in a joint venture status. Many of the companies produce products as a matter of form and do not make any significant profits. Other opportunities include buying up restaurants, shop buildings and swimming pools. Just imagine if someone would have built a restaurant in China in 1985 in Tiananmen Square. Or at Alexander Platz in East Berlin. Opportunities like these do not happen often in the world.

FT: Volker Eloesser operates an IT company in Pyongyang, North Korea and hopes the country develops into a booming region.

VE: Naturally, we only invest very little into production. Nosotek develops software and apps for the iPhone. We are quite successful. One time, we were even in the top ten in the App Store. Our customers do not want us to mention the name of our company or our employees’ names on the product. Although it is going well, we do not generate profits yet. Our headquarters is located in one of the most sought after residential areas in Pyongyang, not far from the center. The area boasts multi-story, stucco houses and easy metro access. These are some of the best conditions possible, so we are optimistic.

Unfortunately, many things are expensive here. The bulk of the goods are imported and therefore, cost twice as much as they would in China. Power, logistics and communications are almost prohibitive. However, wages are way below Chinese standards, which is a key benefit if you get good people. There are plenty here, all with a university degree in computer science or mathematics, some have doctorates. They seem to wait for an announcement of a job opening. I only have to ask my Korean partner and 14 days later new people are coming in for a trial. I can say nothing about the wages.

FT: In fact, the average salary in Pyongyang is around 3,000 Won a month. After a devastating currency reform and crop failures in recent years, this affords an employee about three kilos of rice. Eloesser does not say it, but we hear such things from aid workers in the region. The aid workers do not wish to be identified. Eloesser further:

Eating together in the common area.

VE: “In total we have 45 Korean employees, including five women. I, am the only European. We all eat in the company common area every single day. I particularly like the octopus salad and will miss it if I relocate. After work, colleagues remain a little longer and often sing songs to the guitar. The atmosphere is friendly. Nevertheless, it is not always easy. Koreans are very proud people who love their country and their culture and know nothing else.

It is not easy to convince them to do something differently. For many it is difficult to recognize a foreigner as an authority, and if they do not understand the meaning of a statement it is often not performed. However, the biggest difficulty is much different: We have an IT company without access to the internet. We solve this problem by delegating the development of online components to partner companies in China. Here in North Korea you can only do things offline. At home I have true internet access, but it is very slow and rather expensive.”

FT: In fact, one can only get on the internet via a satellite dish in North Korea. The acquisition cost to use the internet according to a local charity is the equivalent of 11,000 euros. The monthly expense may be up to 700 euros, depending on how many users share the connection.

VE: “Pyongyang itself has changed in the last few years. Since 2005, the first time I was here, the traffic has doubled. The days of empty roads are long gone, such images only haunt the internet. Instead of old taxis or Ladas, North Korean Pyonghwas and Malaysian Proton sedans are on the road now. Bicycles are hardly center. They may only drive on the sidewalks. There are lots of military jeeps or SUVs from Russian, Chinese and local manufacturers.

You meet uniformed people everywhere in North Korea, but not all are military. Civilians bear just as many olive green suits with no weapons or rank insignias. The rest are soldiers. Soldiers are often used to harvest and help with road and house construction. I never feel threatened by the military presence as a foreigner. I feel I am treated with respect. People think; if he was not important for our country, he would not be here. Nevertheless, I am of course aware that somebody writes reports about me. Wherever I go, if I am at a restaurant or at work, somebody knows me. He notes when and where I parked my car and statements like this interview will be read by the authorities. At first I thought they listened to me at my apartment. However, even if they have actually done this, I think it has become boring for them.

Sometimes I can understand their suspicions; the reports by many Western media outlets are biased. Recently, the North Korean government printed a picture of children splashing around in Wonsan. People abroad believed the picture was staged, but this type of activity is common in the summertime heat.

FT: Sense of unwritten prohibitions

VE: The authorities are particularly suspicious of journalists and tourists because they do not know their true intentions. We are entrepreneurs and largely left alone. We are not required to go to political events or memorials. As a business man you have one clear goal, business. It is understood and supported. Life would be easier if we knew what we can and cannot do. Unfortunately, this is not written anywhere. It is better to hold back. Over time, you develop a sense of unwritten prohibitions. I have my own opinion about the policy, but I will keep it to myself. I make sure I never have a camera with me, not even on my phone. I do this so no one thinks I want to photograph something without permission. I live in the Bulgarian Embassy because there are no mixed residences. I never visit North Koreans at home and do not talk to them on the street. I do talk to children occasionally. They are not afraid of foreigners and like to try out their English vocabulary. They will say things like; “How old are you?” Where do you come from? Bye-bye.” Then they run away giggling.

Basically, I lead a fairly normal life here. I can move around in my free time and go to the mountains and play golf or tennis. There is a night life in Pyongyang with bars and karaoke. More precisely, there are two types of night life, one for locals and one for foreigners. For example, I do not get tickets to the local cinema. Today I went to an amusement park that many North Koreans visit. The park was built in 2010 and is equipped with fair attractions like the kind they have once a year in small German towns.

Shopping is not a problem. There are no signs of a food shortage as the shops are packed. Curiously, a kilo of chicken on the market is often cheaper than a kilo of vegetables. This may be because chickens can live in backyards and on balconies. Vegetables cannot, that would require offseason greenhouses, which are not found in North Korea. Imported goods usually have astronomical prices. For example; a Hungarian salami costs the equivalent of 42 euros. Other products like yogurt cannot be found in the summer because the refrigeration is inadequate. Sometimes I shop at the diplomatic supermarket and buy things like Haribo, Mosel wine and milk chocolate.”

FT: Of course, the well-equipped shops have a catch; purchases must be paid for in euros.

VE: “By the way, last Saturday night something strange happened. I had an accident. A man ran out in front of my car. He was in dark clothing and came out of nowhere across the eight-lane main road. I slammed on the brakes, but the car hit him, and he fell onto the road. When someone came to help him up, he quickly departed from the scene of the accident. You call that a victim’s escape?

A short time later, three police officers arrived on motorcycles. They were friendly and professional, and they even offered me a cigarette. In some other countries, I would have been imprisoned or would have been asked to pay an exorbitant bribe. Here I was only given a warning, because I had forgotten my passport and driver’s license and the technical inspection (also here) was outdated by nine months. That was all. There was not a victim. Only screeching tires in the night.”

The original German verison can be found here:
Unser Mann in Pjöngjang
Financial Times (German edition)
9/12/2010

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How North Korea was lost to China

September 17th, 2010

Aiden Foster-Carter has written an long piece in the Asia Times on North Korea’s geopolitics.  It is a fairly long piece, so here is the punch line:

So there’s our winner. Its rivals’ missteps have helped, but Beijing has long played a skillful, patient game. Like Moscow, it irked the North by recognizing South Korea (in 1992), but unlike the abrupt Russians it worked hard to soothe sensitivities.

Eighteen years on, guess which power is the top trade partner of both Koreas? Now, there’s subtle hegemony for you. No prizes either for guessing who’s snapping up North Korea’s mines, and beginning the lengthy, costly process of modernizing its decrepit infrastructure.

Face it: who else has the motive, or the means? As all agree, China’s overriding worry about North Korea is not Kim’s nukes but fear of collapse, and the chaos this could cause on its own borders. Beijing’s consistent strategy is not to paint Kim into a corner, no matter what.

Knowing that, how did policymakers in Seoul or Washington delude themselves that China would hurry to join a chorus of condemnation over the Cheonan? No way. Beijing squirmed a bit, but the game was worth the candle. Let Washington and Seoul huff and puff. All that achieved was to push an ever-more isolated North Korea further into China’s orbit and influence.

Nothing is certain, especially about North Korea where forecasts (this writer’s not least) have a habit of turning out wrong. I expected North Korea to collapse long ago: guilty as charged, m’lud. I understimated this tough regime’s staying power, or the horrors it would impose on its people – including famine – to cling to power while refusing to see sense.

But this can’t go on forever. The old game of militant mendicancy is finally up. Kim Jong-il’s frail health, a delicate succession, and an empty treasury – United Nations sanctions have hit arms exports, and crime doesn’t pay like it used to – make defying the entire world just too risky.

North Korea needs a sugar daddy. There is only one candidate left standing, and one who fits the bill perfectly. It may not be a marriage made in heaven, mind you. Pyongyang will keep squawking, and even try the old game of playing off its interlocutors – as in its latest thaw with Seoul.

But at the end of the day Beijing is making an offer no one else can match, and which North Korea can’t refuse. It goes roughly like this: Okay, we’ll bail you out, we’ll guarantee your security, we’ll even stomach your weird monarchical tendencies – unless the kid turns out to be a complete klutz, in which case you know what to do. Jang Song-taek (brother-in-law to Kim Jong-il) knows the score.

You can count on us too not to shame you by spelling all this out and giving the game away. But yes, we do need something in return. Two things. First: markets. For goodness sake just leave them alone, nay let ’em rip – as we’ve been telling you to, ever since Deng Xiaoping.

Look where we are now, and where you are. We’ll do the heavy lifting of investment, so you have functioning factories and railways again. But you have to let it happen. No going back.

Second: no more trouble. We know it may take time for you to give up your footling pesky nukes. But we need an absolute guarantee of no more tests, or else. No other provocations, either. Our People’s Liberation Army will teach your Korean People’s Army how to adapt and how to make money. The new North Korea will be a good global citizen, trading like we do. The returns are good. It beats mugging any day.

And guess what? You’ll love it, all of you. You’ll prosper. No more worries. Your people will eat; your elite will make money. What’s not to like? Just stop all that shouting and marching; what a relief, eh? The rest of the cult can stay, if you must. All hail the young general Kim Jong-eun, finally fulfilling grandpa’s dream of peace and prosperity for all! (With a bit of help from his friends, but we’re modest.) You’ll love him. You really will.

This seems to me a plausible scenario for North Korea’s future. In fact, I struggle to imagine any other. Korean reunification? Maybe in the very long run – but right now, who wants it?

Not the North, whose elite know the fate of their East German counterparts after unification. Can we really expect them to put their faith in the tender mercies of Lee Myung-bak? Even under Kim Dae-jung or Roh Moo-hyun it would have been tricky. What place would there be for most of them, frankly, in a reunified peninsula? Not a privileged one, that’s for sure.

Ordinary North Koreans, too, have learned, from the trickle who have made it to Seoul, that South Korea is no land of milk and honey. True, they’d like a life, and to eat. But China, or a North Korea open to and learning from China, might look a better bet on that score.

Nor is the South enthusiastic, despite all the rhetoric. It would be embarrassing and galling to see the North become a Chinese satellite – yet perhaps also a huge relief. Let Beijing bear the brunt, the burden, and the costs of transforming the madhouse they have long sustained.

Further down the line, blood could prove thicker. By 2040 or so, a by then semi-transformed North Korea may tire of great Han chauvinism, slough off the Chinese yoke, and embrace the cousins south of the demilitarized zone (which would long ago have become more permeable). They’d be easier to absorb, too, now smoothed by a few decades of Chinese-style modernity.

Speculative, to be sure. But what other scenarios are there? And though from one viewpoint China has edged out rival powers as argued above, presumably to their chagrin, might some of them in truth be quietly relieved to be spared the responsibility? Let China take it on and deliver a new-style North Korea, vibrant and fit for a new century. It could last a long time, and spare the region and world much headache and risk. Does anyone have an alternative?

Aidan Foster-Carter is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University, and a freelance consultant, writer and broadcaster on Korean affairs. A regular visitor to the peninsula, he has followed North Korea for over 40 years.

You can read the full article here:
How North Korea was lost – to China
Asia Times
Aidan Foster-Carter
9/16/2010

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Sinuiju flood photos

September 17th, 2010

Samaritan’s Purse, the US-based, religious charitable organization, has published some pictures of their recent delivery of flood relief supplies to Sinuiju.

Here is one photo:

 

You should check out the other photos in the set here.

Here is a video they produced before takeoff.

Samaritan’s Purse is delivering a portion of the US government’s $750,000 flood relief campaign.

Additional information:
1. South Korean aid in response to the flood. China sends aid.

2. Video of Sinuiju. Official Chinese and DPRK photos of the flooding.

3. Here are previous posts about Samaritan’s Purse in the DPRK.

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