North Korean Economy Watch

As a dutch citizin, I’d like to add some comment here. It is perhaps a known fact that the Netherlands have had a struggle with water practically all the time, because of it’s low level and flat land shape, whith many rivers and close to the north sea border. In 1953 a large part of the country drowned, and only with the aid of many foreign countries (including pakistan) we survived. After many years a plan was made to finally deal with the risks of floodings (mainly from sea), which is known as the ‘delta works’. Also we are famous for our technological know how on building dikes and mounds and structures to protect against sea- and river water. Just yesterday we had a large TV show for raising money to the people in Pakistan which had serious floodings.
As for China and DPRK, countries with a fairly good level of technoligcal know how (they both master the building of nuclear power stations and sending rockets into space, etc.) I think it would be good if they would sent their specialists to the Netherlands, to inform themselves how we have built protection systems against the (sea) water. And perhaps we could even aid them in developing their own system of protection against flooding from rivers that swell from rainfall.

Perhaps the first thing to do is to create a virtual model of the river flows, and gather data about rainfall and river level, in order to create an early warning system, so that people can be warned early and evacuate on time.
The next step then would be to design several structures that can manage even the most worst conditions of rainfall and flooding, and takes into account that such conditions might occur more often and maybe even with more rainfall in the future, as a consequence of climate change (rising temperatures in oceans will cause more serious rainfall).

For instance, in the whole region in which water flows into a river (for example the Yalu / Amnok river) one could create barrierers that could hold large amount of water for sufficient large amount of time, and only release the water when the rivers downstream can accomodate for that.

There is the opportunity also to have these waterbarriers aid also in:
a. The production of extra electricity for hydro energy (which helps in having the system pay-back itself)
b. Allows for water storage that can be used when the dry season occurs, and thus create a more constant output of water to the lower regions, where most of the agricultural areas are located.
c. Implemented also with additional works for water irrigation and extension of the electricity grid.

Behind those barriers, which are sufficiently upstream in hilly and mountanous areas, needs to be accomodated for sufficient water storages, and areas must be prepared . Since most of the areas are not very much ppulated, only a small amount of people need to be reallocated to higher locations or other areas. Sine those areas can be flooded occasionally, it should not have any agricultural or economical activity, or only very little.

Downstream and in addition at places where the current dikes are not high enough for accomodating the highest water levels, the dikes need to be adjusted accordingly to protect the land and buildings behind it.

Between the constructions upstream (water barriers with large water storage capacity) and the constructions downstream, there is a trade-off, and the optimum configuration should be able to be calculated, if a precise enough model of the system can be created, based on both historic data and estimates for future situations, in combination with the economic costs.

Also the trade-off between on the one hand the chance of inundation and the economic losses that occur, and on the other hand the costs of building the water protection constructions to protect against that damage, should be able to calculate fairly exactly to find an optimum between construction costs and avoided yearly economic losses from flooding.

For the DPRK in particular, since it might not have the sufficient means to construct this on their own, perhaps the Chinese could be the main investor, and DPRK can pay back the investment by exporting additional quantities of hydro electricity, and by delivering building materials and labor for the project.

Additional funds may come from international help organisations, which currently provide food aid to the DPRK, as this plan helps to restore the ability of the DPRK to grow their own food and protect their agricultural areas from flooding, and which would lead to less destruction of harvest as the consequence of flooding.

As a secondary issue, the additional hydro capacity is most usefull when used in combination with sources like wind-energy, as the hydro power plants can normally provide back up for wind power. The set back is however that in case of heavy rainfall, this backup facility may not be usefull because of the risk of flooding down river. But this only happens during a short period per year.

Of course, an intermediate strategy, which increases the water carrying capacity of the mountaneous regions, by replanting as much trees, should be carried out too, but this will probably not really solve the problem sufficiently.