North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-12-22
12/22/2010

On December 1, the North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly Standing Committee announced an order to elevate the position of the National Resource Development Office, which is overseen by the Cabinet’s Ministry of Extractive Industry, to the Ministry of National Resource Development. According to the Korea Central News Agency, this measure is aimed at increasing development and export of underground resources as international sanctions against the North further limit Pyongyang’s access to foreign capital.

The regime’s focus on increasing earnings can be seen in Kim Jong Il’s on-site guidance trips, as well. The KCNA reported on December 3 that Kim had recently visited Danchon, South Hamgyong Province, touring the Danchon Magnesia Factory, the Danchon Mining Equipment Factory, and the Danchon Port facilities. During his visit to the magnesia factory, Kim Jong Il emphasized the need for increasing the production of quality asphalt. In addition, after receiving a report on the status of implementation of CNC in the Danchon Mining Equipment Factory, he stated, “The factory needs to normalize at a high level of mass production to turn out the necessary numbers of mining and processing equipment.” Upon reviewing the Danchon Port facilities, Kim Jong Il urged staff to work towards ensuring a loud chorus of boat whistles in the port for the upcoming 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung in 2012.

U.S. financial sanctions levied against the North have made it difficult for Pyongyang to collect export earnings from its mining efforts, one of its key earners of foreign capital. In May of last year, when sanctions were strengthened in response to North Korea’s second nuclear test, European and even Chinese banks froze money transfers to North Korea. The [North] Korea Magnesia Clinker Manufacturing Group could not collect 4.6 million USD in earnings from the export of zinc to Europe. It appears that the North has tried to compensate for these losses by increasing the export of iron ore from Musan. Exports to China passing through the Musan customs office have more than doubled, rising from 1200 to 2500 tons per day.

The mines of Musan, holding more than seven billion tons of iron ore, are the North’s primary vehicle for earning foreign capital. In 2004, China’s Tonghua Steel and Iron Group signed a contract with North Korean authorities granting the group 50-year development rights at some key North Korean mines, and is planning to invest seven billion Yuan in developing the sites. Beijing plans to use the access to North Korean mines to meet some of the expected 80 million ton shortfall of iron ore in 2010. However, there are rumors that North Korea has canceled the contract with no explanation, causing much speculation about the direction of Pyongyang’s export strategy.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The European Union has decided to renew and extend its list of people and entities in North Korea who are subject to restrictive measures.

One individual and six entities were added to the list due to their involvement with the North’s nuclear arms program or other weapons-related activities.

The measures include both a visa ban and an asset freeze. The list, which currently contains 18 individuals and 12 entities, was published in the EU Official Journal on Thursday.

The EU says “the decision also limits financing activities and trade” with Pyongyang, particularly of arms and related materials that could be used in the development of weapons of mass destruction.

The official EU publication, featuring all of the specifics, can be found here (PDF).

Read the full story here:
EU Extends Visa Bans and Asset Freezes on N.Korea
Choson Ilbo
12/24/2010

According to Yonhap:

Inter-Korean trade has fallen about 30 percent this year, largely affected by South Korea’s move to cut almost all business relations with North Korea after the North sank one of its naval ships in a torpedo attack in March, the customs office said Wednesday.

According to data provided by the Korea Customs Service (KCS), trade between the two Koreas amounted to US$464 million during the January-November period, down from $649 million recorded a year earlier.

In May, a multinational team of investigators released a report saying that North Korea torpedoed the South Korean warship Cheonan on March 26 near their disputed western maritime border, killing 46 sailors. The North has denied any involvement.

In response, the Seoul government suspended almost all business relations with Pyongyang on May 24 with the exception of the industrial complex in the border town of Kaesong, where South Korean firms are doing business in cooperation with workers from the North.

South Korea’s exports to the North came to $130 million during the cited period, down 28 percent a year earlier, while imports dropped 29 percent on-year to $334 million, the data showed.

Despite such a sharp shrinkage, trade through the Kaesong industrial complex, tallied in a separate statistic, remained robust. Trade amounted to $1.31 billion during the 11-month period, up 62 percent from a year earlier.

“There have been some disruptions due to heightened geopolitical tensions but the overall number of companies operating there increased compared with a year earlier, which resulted in a hike in production,” a KCS official said.

The official said that companies in the North Korean border town numbered 121 as of November this year, up from 93 a year earlier. An economic recovery in the South also helped boost production in factories there, the official said.

South Korea is the North’s second-largest trade partner after China. A suspension of inter-Korean business would significantly impact the reclusive communist nation’s efforts to secure cash, according to experts.

The two Koreas remain technically at war as their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean trade falls sharply amid heightened tensions
Yonhap
12/22/2010

According to Yonhap:

Output at an inter-Korean industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong rose by over 10 percent in October from the previous month, data released by the Unification Ministry said Sunday.

In October, companies in the Kaesong complex produced goods totaling US$29.41 million in value, up by $2.72 million, or 10.2 percent, from $26.69 million in September, according to the data.

The figure increased by 8.9 percent from the same month last year, they showed.

Total output for the Kaesong complex had been on the decline since the Cheonan incident in March, in which 46 sailors died in a torpedo attack blamed on North Korea. The figure hit $26.41 million in July.

The data also showed that the number of North Korean workers in the border town complex marked 44,958 in October, rising steadily from 42,397 in March.

“Although the North shelled Yeonpyeong Island on Nov. 23, North Korean workers have been on the rise,” said a ministry official. “According to unofficial statistics, 45,300 North Koreans are working in Kaesong today.”

The Kaesong industrial park is considered the last remaining major symbol of reconciliation efforts between the two Koreas, whose relations have been tense over the past three years. The park began operating in 2004 as a product of the first inter-Korean summit held four years earlier.

Read the full story here:
Output for Kaesong industrial complex increases 10 pct in October
Yonhap
12/19/2010

According to the Korea Herald:

Although not so explicitly, the communist North Korea appears to be becoming more aware of capitalist cultures and trends, a change the Kim Jong-il regime has feared the most and tried to prevent for decades.

Not only the social upper crust, but the majority of the general public has seen popular South Korean TV series through copies that flow in from China and is aware of the financial gap between the two divided states, North Korean defectors said during a recent forum in Seoul.

According to the defectors ― among hundreds of others who attempt to abandon their impoverished state and escape to the wealthier South each year ― such changes are causing a headache for the North Korean leader trying to secure internal unity before handing over the regime to his youngest son.

“It is difficult to fend off South Korean products and TV shows from entering the country so as long as China remains to be its main trade partner and financial donor,” said Ju Seong-ha, a North Korean defector who graduated from the North’s top Kim Il-sung University.

“The recent phenomena may result in North Koreans choosing South Korea over their own country when the time comes for them to decide.”

North Korea, which is one of the world’s last remaining totalitarian states and also one of the most secretive nations, keeps its people largely isolated from outside news and strictly forbids them from possessing goods that are not distributed by the ruling Workers’ Party.

But the impoverished state’s heavy dependence on Beijing for food and other commodities is inevitably opening up its people to goods and cultures from capitalist nations, particularly South Korea.

China has emerged as the world’s second largest economy after abandoning Stalinist policies and is one of the largest markets for South Korean pop culture, also widely known as “hallyu.”

Most copies of popular South Korean TV series and news that flow into North Korea are produced in China, which is notorious for illegally making cheap, low-quality copies of copyrighted materials.

A 20-something North Korean who escaped to Seoul last year said he had been “shocked” at the sight of South Korea the first time he saw a soap opera starring the country’s top celebrities.

“We had been told South Korea was an underdeveloped country full of beggars,” the defector said, requesting not to be named for safety reasons. “What I saw were beautiful, trendy people living in a glamorous city.”

“I say 90 percent of North Koreans have seen a South Korean TV series at least once,” he said.

Even security and judiciary officials watch popular South Korean soap operas in secret, another unnamed defector told the Dec. 10 forum in Seoul.

“Because the DVD players are sold at a relatively cheap price in North Korea, many households possess them and share CDs among themselves,” the defector said. “Seeing for themselves how well-off and happy people in the South seem, many people build up admiration for the country.”

The apparent popularity of South Korean culture in North Korea coincides with President Lee Myung-bak’s recently made remarks during his trip to Malaysia.

“No one can possibly stop the changes brewing among the general North Korean public,” the South Korean president had said.

Read the full story here:
Changes brewing in ‘not so isolated’ North
The Korea Herald
Shin Hae-in
12/15/2010

UPDATE (12/7/2010): Austrian convicted for yacht sale to DPRK.  According to Reuters:

A Vienna court has fined an Austrian man 3.3 million euros ($4.4 million) over the sale of luxury goods, including yachts, believed destined for North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, a court official said Tuesday.

The businessman, who was not named, was also handed a nine-month suspended sentence late Monday for the dealings which violate an international trade embargo against Kim’s impoverished state, court official Christian Gneist said.

“The amount was 3.3 million euros because this was the amount he received as payment,” Gneist said. The trade violated U.N. sanctions against North Korea imposed over its nuclear bomb tests.

Working with a North Korean intermediary close to Kim, the Viennese man tried to procure two yachts and received payment for them, Gneist said.

Prosecutors also accused him of lining up eight top-end Mercedes-Benz S-Class cars and musical instruments including a Steinway grand piano for Pyongyang, Austrian daily Kurier reported.

The Austrian man pleaded guilty and told the court he had not realized what he was getting into, Kurier said.

“It doesn’t have anything to do with atomic bombs. I am not interested in politics. I am a businessman,” the paper quoted him as telling the court.

Italian financial police helped to break up the sale of the yachts last year, which prosecutors believed to be a birthday present for Kim. The Austrian bought them from the Azimut-Benetti boatyard, one of the world’s leading yachtmakers. Azimut-Benetti was not accused of wrongdoing and had cooperated fully in the investigation, Italian police have said.

The sale of luxury goods to North Korea is banned under a U.N. resolution in retaliation for the country’s nuclear testing program. The U.N. Security Council unanimously voted to widen its sanctions after North Korea’s nuclear test in May last year.

ORIGINAL POST (7/23/2009): According to Reuters (via Washington Post), UN sanctions have prevented the sale of two Italian yachts to the DPRK.  To top it off, the DPRK purchaser lost the deposit!  According to the article:

Financial police in the city of Lucca in central Italy said the vessels were worth nearly 13 million euros ($18 million) and had been purchased by an Austrian intermediary from the Azimut-Benetti boatyard, one of the world’s leading yachtmakers.

The Austrian intermediary then ceded the contract to a Chinese company, which in turn paid a Hong Kong business to take delivery of the vessels, police said.

“The difficulty was tracing it back to a violation of the sanctions,” said Colonel Antonio Leone, the Finance Police’s commander in Lucca. Asked if Kim was the intended final recipient of the vessels, he said: “It is an irrefutable fact.”

“There has been a thorough investigation, partly in Austria, backed up by confessions and investigative breakthroughs.”

The yachts were initially confiscated by Italy’s Economic Development Ministry but have since been returned to the boatyard, which has been allowed to keep the deposit.

Azimut-Benetti is not accused of wrongdoing and has cooperated fully in the investigation, police said.

The sale of luxury goods to North Korea is banned under a U.N. resolution in retaliation for the country’s nuclear testing program. The U.N. Security Council unanimously voted to widen its sanctions after North Korea’s May 25 nuclear test.

Given the complex chain of front companies involved in carrying out this transaction, the application of the UNSC resolution is a great illustration of what Haggard and Noland call “whac a mole“.  The North Koreans will now attempt to reconstitute their trade and proliferation networks using new front companies.  According to Haggard and Noland:

As a small country dependent on foreign trade and investment, North Korea should be highly vulnerable to external economic pressure. In June 2009, following North Korea’s second nuclear test, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1874, broadening existing economic sanctions and tightening their enforcement. However, an unintended consequence of the nuclear crisis has been to push North Korea into closer economic relations with China and other trading partners that show little interest in cooperating with international efforts to pressure North Korea, let alone in supporting sanctions. North Korea appears to have rearranged its external economic relations to reduce any impact that traditional sanctions could have.

Given the extremely high priority the North Korean regime places on its military capacity, it is unlikely that the pressure the world can bring to bear on North Korea will be sufficient to induce the country to surrender its nuclear weapons. The promise of lifting existing sanctions may provide one incentive for a successor government to reassess the country’s military and diplomatic positions, but sanctions alone are unlikely to have a strong effect in the short run. Yet the United States and other countries can still exercise some leverage if they aggressively pursue North Korea’s international financial intermediaries as they have done at times in the past.

Read Haggard’s and Noland’s complete analysis here.

Read the full stories here:
Italy blocks sale of yachts to North Korea’s Kim
Reuters (via Washington Post)
7/23/2009

Sanctioning North Korea: The Political Economy of Denuclearization and Proliferation
Peterson Institute Working Paper 09-4
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-12-3-2
12/3/2010

North Korean trade with China has jumped 26.7 percent during the first eight months of the year, with the bulk of its imports made up of crude oil, and its largest export being coal. Despite the increasingly severe food shortages in the North, food imports from China were actually down 7.5 percent, while on the other hand, fertilizer imports shot up by 162 percent.

The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) looked into the Chinese government’s import and export figures and determined that North Korean exports to China during the first eight months of the year were worth 650,000 USD, 20.6% more than during the same period last year, while DPRK imported 1.345 billion USD-worth of goods (30% increase), for trade worth a total of 1.995 billion USD, 26.7 percent more than 2009.

“Mineral fuel and mineral oil” topped the list of North Korean imports (321,000 USD), with crude oil (229,000 USD) and oil (63,000 USD) making up 90.7 percent of imported goods. However, while crude imports were 53 percent more expensive, the amount of oil imported only rose by 2.3 percent; the sharp increase in expenditure was due to climbing international oil prices. The second- and third-largest imports were listed as “nuclear reactor, boiler, and machinery” (127,000 USD) and “electromagnetic machinery, sound and video equipment” (106,000 USD). Other imports included cars and car parts, steel and steel goods, plastic and plastic goods, artificial filament, fertilizer, and grain. A KOTRA official stated that while “nuclear reactor” was listed among the goods imported by the North, there is no way to verify the Chinese statistics.

North Korea’s grain import expenditures increased by five percent, to 34,000 USD, but overall grain imports fell 7.5 percent, to 102,000 tons, due to increased costs. More specifically, rice import expenditures were up 8.4 percent to 16.6 million USD, but the amount of rice imported fell by six percent, to 38,400 tons. Corn expenditures dropped by one percent to 16.3 million USD while the amount imported fell by ten percent, to 62,000 tons. The cost of barley imports grew 190 percent, to 353,000 USD, with the amount of barley brought into the country up 89 percent to 1,011 tons. 277,000 tons of fertilizer were imported, 162 percent more than last year, at a cost of 40 million USD, 85 percent more than 2009. Almost all of the fertilizer was nitrogenous.

North Korea’s exports to China were made up largely of mining and fisheries. Coal topped the list (191,000 USD), although the amount sent across the border was 31 percent less than last year. Iron ore was second, and was not only down by 34 percent, it brought in 134 percent less than 2009, as it was worth only 111 million USD. Textiles and accessories worth 81 million USD, steel worth 64 million USD, and mollusks worth 32 million USD were also sent to China.

According to Yonhap:

Once hailed as vanguards of reconciliation but now threatened by simmering animosity between the Koreas, a group of South Korean businessmen pleaded Thursday with senior lawmakers to safeguard their operations in North Korea against further political fallout.

Since North Korea mounted a deadly artillery attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong on Nov. 23, these seasoned businessmen have had jitters over the fate of their factories built in the western North Korean border town of Kaesong.

Considered the last remaining symbol of reconciliation between the divided countries, the joint industrial complex houses more than 120 South Korean firms employing 44,000 North Korean workers.

Holding a commercial fair at the National Assembly, representatives from eight companies and officials from their association mingled with two dozen lawmakers and scrambled to tout their products as bearing the messages of hope and peace.

“We have achieved a level of quality that enables us to compete with any other industrial complexes in the world,” Bae Hae-dong, chief of the association of South Korean factories, said in a speech. “Yet, we remain easily affected by inter-Korean political circumstances. We especially deplore the situation that has arisen since North Korea attacked Yeonpyeong.”

The shelling of the small fishing community killed two marines and two civilians in the most indiscriminate attack on South Korean soil since the 1950-53 Korean War that ended in a truce.

A travel ban imposed on North Korea a day after the attack remains in place, allowing only a limited amount of raw materials to be sent to Kaesong and hamstringing manufacturing operations there.

“We are suffering a 10-15 percent decline in production due to the ban,” said Kim Ssang-kyu, general manager at Pyxis Inc., which produces jewelry cases and other accessories.

Sung Hyun-sang, president of Mansung Corp., which makes women’s clothing, claimed the damage in production amounts to as much as 50 percent.

“We understand the ban is for the sake of our safety, but we’re sure the North Koreans won’t hurt us. They know how important we are” to their cash-strapped economy, Sung said.

“We can only worry and pray for now,” an official at Shinwon, which produces men’s suits, said, asking not to be named because his remark could be taken sensitively.

About 410 South Koreans remained in Kaesong as of Thursday, a drop from 760 on Nov. 23 when the artillery exchange erupted between the Koreas, according to the Unification Ministry in Seoul.

The Kaesong complex produced its first articles — kitchen pans — in 2004 even though the two Koreas had agreed four years earlier on the project in an effort to lessen border tension.

Combining South Korean capital and know-how with the cheap labor in North Korea, the park recently reached a total of US$1 billion in production. Supporters of the estate say its significance goes far beyond economic benefits.

“Kaesong has been a safety pin whenever the security on the Korean Peninsula sagged to a dangerous level,” Kim Choong-whan, a legislator with the ruling conservative Grand National Party (GNP), said in a speech.

Park Joo-sun, who is with the liberal Democratic Party (DP) and sponsored the fair, expressed hope that the park will survive the crisis sparked by the North’s shelling.

The fair was scheduled before the crisis, organizers said. The lawmakers who attended it included Park Jie-won, a DP lawmaker who led the organization of the 2000 summit, and Lee Sang-deuk, President Lee Myung-bak’s older brother who is a GNP legislator.

“Sir, please help us,” Bae told the influential lawmaker touring the booths set up at the fair.

Gently embracing Lee with his arm in a show of friendship, another businessman smiled widely and whispered to Lee, “This is the lifeline of peace.”

In a brief interview on the sidelines, Lee downplayed the economic damage the South Korean firms said they have incurred since the travel ban on North Korea came into effect on Nov. 24.

“They should and can withstand this. It is a risk they were willing to take,” he said as he stepped onto the elevator taking him to his office inside the building.

Vice Unification Minister Um Jong-sik, who admitted in a speech that the companies were suffering drops in production, would not say how long the ban will stay in effect.

“All things and situations must be considered before we can make a decision,” he said after a long pause, when asked if South Korean artillery drills planned for next week in the Yellow Sea would prompt the ministry to extend the ban.

“For now, we’re doing our best to listen to these companies and address their needs as much as we can,” he said as he left the fair with two bags full of clothing he bought from Mansun Corp.

South Korea and the United States ended their four-day joint naval drills mobilizing an American aircraft carrier in the Yellow Sea on Wednesday, a move they believed would intimidate North Korea into calling off further acts of provocation.

The U.S. has 28,500 forces stationed in South Korea, a legacy of the Korean War in which it led U.N. forces to fight against North Korea. Since a U.S. commander drew a line separating the waters of the Koreas at the end of the war, the North has denied its validity, triggering a series of deadly naval clashes there with the South.

North Korea says any further artillery drills by the South on Yeonpyeong, less than 10 kilometers from the North Korean coast, are bound to violate its waters because the Northern Limit Line is null.

The communist state maintains that it fired at Yeonpyeong because it had been provoked by South Korean forces shooting artillery shells at its side across from Yeonpyeong.

Read the full story here:
Businessmen plead for help as tension threatens their factories in N. Korea
Yonhap
Sam Kim
12/2/2010

As the focal point of DPRK-PRC trade, Dandong has seen phenomenal growth in the last 5 years.

Here is just one area in southern Dandong:

Here is a separate area in northern Dandong where Yalu River high-rise development is underway:

And here is another island in the Yalu River:

Dandong has been the focus of increasing media attention over the last 10 years because it has economically benefitted from increased trade (and expected future trade) between the PRC and DPRK.  

Today it is probably the easiest place to collect “survey data” on the DPRK’s business environment. According to a recent article in the Associated Press (via San Francisco Examiner), the DPRK still has a long way to go before foreign investors will see a climate ripe for investment:

Just across the Yalu River from North Korea, this sleepy border town in China’s Rust Belt is booming.

Towering apartment blocks are going up on the city’s western edge near the new Friendship Road Bridge, which will soon be the second bridge connecting Dandong to the North Korean city of Sinuiju.

Offices for trade and export-import companies dot the main road along the riverfront. A new airport is being built. Shops sell North Korean liquor, blueberry wine, ginseng, stamps and music CDs. And North Korean restaurants offer popular Korean dishes such as stewed dog leg and spicy deep-fried dog.

Dandong – like other parts of northeastern China along the 870-mile border – aims to profit from China and North Korea’s growing cross-border trade, now close to $3 billion a year. At a time when the United States and its allies are looking to isolate the Pyongyang regime for its nuclear program and erratic behavior, including this week’s artillery attack on a South Korean island, this hardscrabble part of China is finding that being North Korea’s back door to the world can be a lucrative business.

China already provides an estimated 90 percent of North Korea’s energy needs and most of its food and weapons. And the most recent gauge of trade between the two countries, from 2008, showed an increase of more than 40 percent from the previous year, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

But even as officials map out grand plans for more cooperation, merchants and small-scale traders say doing business with North Korea remains problematic at best.

The government is unpredictable, they say, and rules change without warning. They tell horror stories about Chinese traders who have lost millions of dollars in goods or equipment that is expropriated or stolen outright. Many now insist on cash-up-front transactions and mostly conduct business on the Chinese side of the border, where they say they have more protections.

Moreover, while North Korean leaders have visited this part of China and professed admiration for China’s economic boom, local Chinese traders and businessmen in close contact with North Koreans say they don’t expect the country to shift to a market economy anytime soon.

“I haven’t seen any sign the North Korean government wants to open up,” said Cui Weitao, 47, who has been trading fruit, clothing, plastic bowls and chopsticks to North Korea for the past decade. “If they really wanted, they could learn from China and Russia. If they wanted, they could let people go back and forth and trade freely. . . . If they opened the border, their whole country would benefit.”

His friend, Wang Tiansheng, 47, another small-scale trader, agreed. “The thought of economic reform has been there for years but never happens. Not while the father is alive,” he said, referring to the country’s leader, Kim Jong Il. “Maybe when the son takes office.”

China and North Korea have been close allies since Chinese troops crossed the Yalu River to help North Korea fight American and South Korean troops during the Korean War, which is referred to here as the “War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea.”

Yet Chinese leaders themselves consider North Korea’s leader an often-troublesome ally because of his brinkmanship with the United States over his country’s nuclear capability and incidents such as this week’s artillery barrage of Yeonpyeong Island, which killed two South Korean marines and two civilians, and the sinking of a South Korean warship in March.

Chinese leaders are reported to be concerned about North Korea’s economic crisis, and they encouraged Kim to embrace market-based economic reforms when he visited China in May and August this year and met with Chinese President Hu Jintao, according to some Hong Kong and South Korean media reports of the visits.

In a bow to reforms, North Korea sent a dozen mayors and provincial chiefs to northeastern China in October to visit factories and chemical plants. Earlier this month, North Korean Premier Choe Yong Rim visited Harbin, in Heilongjiang province, to discuss joint economic projects.

North Korea agreed to lease two Yalu River islands to China to develop into “free trade zones.” Chinese high-tech companies were encouraged to signed agreements to hire North Korean computer experts. In September, after Kim’s second visit, China established a new 100,000-square-foot marketplace in Tumen – across from Namyang in North Korea – for North Koreans to come on one-day passes to sell or trade their goods.

But the Tumen market in many ways illustrates the difficulties of coaxing North Korea to open up. The vast market is now mostly empty because the North Korean government changed its mind about allowing its citizens to come to China to trade freely, Tumen residents said.

One of the few Chinese vendors in the market during a recent visit, who was selling North Korean crab, shrimp and frozen fish, said he lost a lot of money because his North Korean supplier increased prices without warning.

“It’s been really hard and risky to do business with North Korea, firstly because of the complicated procedures of going there,” the seafood vendor said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. He said Chinese traders need an invitation from a state-owned company and three stamps from three departments.

Once inside North Korea, he said, officials “are very greedy. They asked us for digital cameras or DVD players or even computers. We have to buy them dinner, and booze is a must for every time we meet.”

Even the new Friendship Road Bridge being constructed – to augment the existing single-lane bridge – has been difficult to negotiate. China agreed to foot the bill for building the bridge, more than $200 million. But then North Korea demanded China also build a five-star hotel and other infrastructure on the North Korean side, local businessmen said.

Economists said the experience of the local traders confirms their own research: that while North Korean officials publicly claim to want to pursue economic reform, and may speak of emulating China’s success, North Korea’s ruling elite remains deeply ambivalent about anything that might dilute its grip.

“The state has never been comfortable with the market,” said Marcus Noland, senior researcher with the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, who surveyed 300 Chinese companies operating in North Korea. “They see the market potentially as an alternative path to wealth and prestige, and perhaps political power.”

While trying to “deepen their economic integration with China” at the official level, Noland said, North Korean leaders at the same time take steps “to eradicate this kind of normal trading activity at the border” by denying visas and constantly changing the regulations.

“The Chinese do not trust the North Koreans at all,” Noland said.

According to a recent story in the Wall Street Journal, the second DPRK-PRC bridge in Dandong is still tentative:

Construction of the new bridge was originally slated to start in August. Zhao Liansheng, Dandong’s mayor, said in March that building would start in October, and be finished within three years.

“The new bridge is still waiting for the approval of central government,” said an official from the Dandong Transportation Department. “As far as I know, this project is not definite yet.”

I am not sure of the exact location of the new bridge.  If any readers are aware, please let me know.

Read the full stories here:
In Chinese Border Town, Trade With North Korea Can Be Lucrative but Problematic (Dandong, China).
Associated Press (via San Francisco Examiner)
Keith B. Richburg
11/26/2010

Border Bridge Reflects Dilemma
Wall Street Journal
Jeremy Page
11/28/2010

According to the Daily NK:

According to a former North Korean logger in Russia, instances of forestry workers running away from a “Forestry Mission” program organized by North Korea’s Forestry Ministry in the Russian Far East are increasing due to excessive salary deductions currently being imposed by the North Korean authorities.

Song Ki Bok, a 48-year old former logger who now lives in South Korea told The Daily NK on November 18th, “The Forestry Mission takes 70% of monthly salary in the name of Party funding. Who would want to work there when all the money you earn from working yourself to death is taken from you?”

Prior to 2008, North Korea took 30% of the North Koreans’ wages for “Party loyalty funds”. However, after sanctions put in place by the international community following the first North Korean nuclear test began to bite, the amount was increased to 70%.

The North Korean forestry workers do hard physical labor. Depending on the intensity of their work, they receive just $40 to $100 per month.

Therefore, once 70% is deducted as Party funds, the take-home pay of the worker is between $12 and $30. As a result, workers cannot even dream of wiring sums back to family in the North. They just deliver what cash they can gather via colleagues returning home.

Worse yet, with this kind of swingeing monthly deduction, many workers cannot even recover the bribe they had to offer Party officials in order to be sent to Russia in the first place. For example, the total amount Song ended up paying was nearly $400.

Before escaping from the forestry program, Song saw a monthly salary of $30, meaning that even if he had saved every penny he earned for a year he still would not have recouped the $400 he paid out in bribes.

In the beginning, he was buoyed by the ‘Russia Dream’. The family of a worker in a foreign country traditionally lives in better conditions than most people. Therefore, Song went to Russia in the belief that if he worked hard for three years, he could make 10 years of a North Korean working man’s salary; however, the reality was as harsh as the bitter cold of Siberia.

The Forestry Mission in Russia; Kim Jong Il’s hard currency provider

According to Song, there are 17 forestry sites in Russia which employ North Koreans. Depending on the size of the camp there are differences; however, approximately 1,500~2,000 North Koreans work at each.

The major activities of the Party Committee in each camp are surveillance and the collection of Party funds. A manager, Party secretary and an agent from each of the National Security Agency and People’s Security Ministry are assigned to each site, and 15 administrative officers below them manage operations.

The life of workers is the same as it would be if they lived in North Korea. They must partake of weekly evaluation meetings, and food is provided by distribution. They plant potatoes and wheat in cleared areas near their digs to supplement the insufficient state provisions.

If workers leave without permission, they are punished upon their return. If the crime is grave, the worker might be summoned to North Korea for reeducation.

Song commented, “Sometime people leave the camp to go hunting to earn money. They can only escape punishment by bribing the management.”

In total, the amount gathered in the name of Party funds by the North Korean authorities from each camp can exceed $140,000 per month. Calculations suggest that the annual North Korean government take from the program exceeds $25 million.

However, this harsh Party policy is driving escapes, according to Song, “Since most of their monthly salary began to be taken away as Party funds, the number of workers escaping started to increase. Just from those I know, the average has reached 30 workers per a year.”

Song, describing the harsh working conditions at the site, said, “In 2006, a wood cutter from Dukcheon in South Pyongan Province who had frostbite in both feet at work didn’t receive treatment in time. In the end, they had to cut off both his legs. His co-workers, who could not ignore the situation, raised it with the Party Committee there; however, not only was this opinion ignored, but the wood cutter was sent home with the explanation, ‘It was an accident caused by my own carelessness’.”

“The life of a forestry worker fighting against cold which can reach -40˚C in winter is unspeakably tough,” Song said. “Meanwhile, they don’t even receive a proper month’s salary, which reduces their will to work.”

“If a worker escapes, in the end he has no choice but to head to South Korea. When I think about those of my colleagues who couldn’t come to South Korea with me, it is still hard to sleep at night.”

Read more about logging camps in Russia (including satellite imagery) here and here.

Read the full story here:
Runaway Loggers on the Rise Due to Wage Cuts
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
11/22/2010