Archive for the ‘International Governments’ Category

DPRK delpoys Pokpung-ho (Storm)

Thursday, December 30th, 2010

Image from KCTV via Yonhap

According to Yonhap:

North Korea has deployed new battle tanks and bolstered the size of its special forces by 20,000 over the past two years, deepening the threat of unconventional warfare against South Korea, the South’s new defense white paper said Thursday.

The biennial defense paper also defined the North Korean regime and its military as the “enemy” of South Korea, a description stronger than before but short of reviving the symbolic tag of “main enemy” for the communist neighbor.

The new white paper was released as the South’s military resolved to strike back hard against future provocations by the North, which last month bombarded the South’s front-line island of Yeonpyeong, killing two marines and two civilians.

“Threats from North Korea’s asymmetric warfare capabilities such as special forces, artillery pieces and weapons of mass destruction have been on a steady rise since 2008,” Deputy Minister Chang Kwang-il told reporters.

Military officials here have said the North is increasingly focused on unconventional or “asymmetric” weapons, such as improvised explosives or low-cost missiles because the regime knows its aging conventional weapons are no match for the technologically superior South Korean and U.S. forces

The white paper confirmed for the first time that North Korea deployed its new battle tank, called the “Pokpung-ho,” which in Korean means “Storm Tiger,” believed to have been developed in the 1990s based on the Soviet Union’s T-72 tanks.

The North’s new tank is presumed to be equipped with either a 125- or 115-millimeter main gun, similar to that of the T-50 battle tank of the Russian Army, defense ministry officials said.

The paper didn’t say how many of the new tanks North Korea has “deployed for operational use,” but said the number of North Korean tanks rose to some 4,100 units as of November this year, from 3,900 in 2008.

Also, the paper said the number of lightly equipped North Korean special forces, who are trained to quickly infiltrate South Korea, increased to 200,000 from 180,000.

Overall, the total number of North Korean soldiers remained unchanged at about 1.19 million, but the North has reorganized its military to add four new divisions, the paper said.

Although its number of artillery pieces changed little over the past two years, its 170mm self-propelled artillery and 240mm multiple rocket launchers deployed on the front line are capable of carrying out a “massive surprise bombardment” on the South Korean capital of Seoul and its neighboring areas, the paper said.

North Korea is “presumed to have secured about 40 kilograms” of weapons-grade plutonium by reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods four times by 2009, the paper said.

Concerns about the North’s nuclear weapons program deepened last month when Pyongyang, which conducted two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, revealed a uranium enrichment facility to a visiting U.S. scientist. The uranium enrichment program could give the North a second route to build a nuclear bomb.

“Given that North Korea claimed that some 2,000 centrifuges are operational in November 2010, the North is presumed to have pushed for the highly enriched uranium (HEU) program,” the paper said.

Early this week, Chang told reporters that his ministry decided not to revive the “main enemy” tag for the North to “minimize controversy,” because the defense white paper is an official government document that is “used internally and externally.”

Thursday’s defense paper clarified that the “North Korean regime and military are our enemy” that poses a “grave threat” to the South’s security by “staging military provocations such as the torpedo attack on the Cheonan warship and the shelling on Yeonpyeong Island.” Forty-six sailors were killed when the North allegedly torpedoed the Cheonan warship in March in the Yellow Sea.

“Not using the expression ‘main enemy’ does not mean that we softened our stance,” Chang said.

The new description is aimed at sending a strong message of warning to the North and clarifying that the North Korean regime and its military, not the people, are aggressors, according to the official.

South Korea first used the label “main enemy” for North Korea in its 1995 white paper after North Korea threatened to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire” a year earlier. Seoul stopped using the expression in 2004 in an apparent bid not to antagonize Pyongyang amid then-thawing ties.

In its defense paper published in 2008 under the government of President Lee Myung-bak, South Korea called North Korea an “immediate and grave threat” to its national security.

The two Koreas are still technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in the South, a legacy of the three-year war.

The New York Times has more.

Additional information:
1. This web page does not focus on military affairs (except when it overlaps with Google Earth research or broader economics), but I have put some military information resources here for the convenience of readers.  Please let me know if anything should be added.

2. I have kept a chronological list of Yonpyong stories here.

3. I have kept a chronological list of stories related to the DPRK’s new uranium facilities here.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea deploys new battle tanks, boosts special forces
Yonhap
Kim Deok-hyun
12/30/2010

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Rumored $3.5b Chinese investment deal

Thursday, December 30th, 2010

The Choson Ilbo begins this story with “Rumor has it”….

Rumor has it that China is getting directly involved in the development of North Korea’s Rajin-Sonbong Port, once the center of the UN Development Programme’s Duman (or Tumen) River project in 1991. A source in Beijing said Wednesday, “As far as I’m aware, North Korea and China’s Commerce Ministry recently signed a memorandum of understanding outlining Beijing’s investment of US$3.5 billion over five years beginning next year” in the special economic zone there. The source said China is investing in roads, ports and gas facilities in the region.

The Rajin-Sonbong area, at the mouth of the Duman River, is a strategic point of economic cooperation between the two countries, but neither bank is Chinese territory. One side is in North Korea and the other in Russia, so to get to the East Sea China had to borrow a port from either side. China did nothing about the UNDP initiative in the 1990s, but since the mid-2000s, it has set its eyes on the area.

North Korea for some reason rented out the best equipped dock there to Russia in 2008 but since last year it has been seeking investment from China to overcome dried-up aid from South Korea amid international sanctions. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il urged Chinese President Hu Jintao when he visited China in May this year to invest in the region.

But the rumor of direct investment from the Chinese government has not been confirmed. One diplomatic source in Beijing said, “I’ve heard nothing about the Chinese Commerce Ministry’s direct involvement in negotiations. It’s just one of many rumors since North Korea became active in developing the Rajin-Sonbong area.”

UPDATE from the Choson Ilbo:

Chinese officials with close ties with North Korea say the North has used to demand hard cash for business deals but is now taking a more flexible approach. The Global Times, a sister publication of the People’s Daily, published a series of reports Saturday about the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone of North Korea.

It said street lights and neon signs powered by windmills have appeared in the region, which had earlier been pitch dark at night, while the previously ubiquitous soldiers have vanished.

North Korea allowed 4,000 Chinese residents in the area to rent commercial property and agreed to designate an area in the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone to be jointly administered by the two countries.

North Korea had offered China to develop one or two islands in the estuary of the Apnok River on a 50-year lease, but when China demurred it apparently offered a 100-year lease and even allowed construction of golf courses and other recreational facilities.

Many private Chinese companies are reticent about investing in North Korea. Not only is there a lack of business laws to protect their investment, there are also too many political uncertainties. As a result, the Chinese government is not playing a very active role. In the case of the bridge across the Apnok River, North Korea apparently wanted Chinese state-run companies to take part in construction, but Beijing declined.

One source in Beijing said some Chinese companies are showing great interest in developing the Rajin-Sonbong area, but most are biding their time. “Chinese businesses still don’t seem to trust the sincerity of North Korea’s desire to open up its economy,” the source added.

Additional Information:
1. The Chinese and Russians currently lease docks at Rajin. You can see a satellite image of them here.

2. Here is more information on China’s 10-year lease of Rajin.

3. Here is information on the Yalu Islands China is reportedly leasing.

4. The Russians are also building Russian gauge railway line from the Russian border to the port in Rajin.

5. Here are all previous Rajin (Rason)posts

Read the full stories here:
Beijing ‘Pouring Money into N.Korea’s Special Economic Zone’
Choson Ilbo
12/30/2010

N.Korea’s Cross-Border Business with China Picking Up
Choson Ilbo
12/30/2010

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DPRK sends new year fax

Thursday, December 30th, 2010

According to Yonhap:

Closing a tense year in cross-border relations, North Korea is faxing New Year’s greetings to South Koreans likely to support the resumption of cross-border aid next year, an official said Thursday.

A total of 35 organizations, including local governments near the border with the North, and 15 South Korean activists, have so far received such faxes, the government official said, asking not to be identified by post or name.

North Korea has often used fax documents this year to deny its involvement in the deadly March sinking of a South Korean warship and its responsibility for the artillery exchange between the two countries in the Yellow Sea in November.

Two South Korean marines and two civilians were killed in the artillery attack on the island of Yeonpyeong. The latest North Korean fax offensive did not refer to the attack, but contained calls for the South to honor their past two summit deals promising economic aid and cooperation for the North, the official said.

“We are here sending New Year’s greetings. We wish you success in your patriotic activities toward the reunification of the (Korean) nation and the defense of peace and stability under the banner of the inter-Korean declarations,” the fax was quoted as saying.

North Korea has sent similar faxes to South Korea annually since 2001, according to the official. The two countries held their first summit in 2000, and the second one took place in 2007.

The official said the recipients this year included the Incheon city government and the Gangwon provincial government, both of which are headed by liberals supporting assistance to North Korea.

“The North also appears to be trying to create a rift and trigger an anti-government struggle among us,” the official said.

The ties between the Koreas deteriorated after a conservative government took power here in early 2008, suspending unconditional aid and pushing the North harder to take denuclearization steps.

The two Koreas remain technically at war after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty. South Koreans are banned by law from contacting North Koreans without prior approval.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea faxing New Year’s greetings to S. Koreans
Yonhap
Sam Kim
12/30/2010

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ROK spends 5.6 pct of inter-Korean cooperation fund

Sunday, December 26th, 2010

According to Yonhap:

South Korea has spent only 5.6 percent of its funds earmarked for promoting humanitarian and economic ties with North Korea this year, the unification ministry said Sunday, as inter-Korean relations tumbled to their worst in decades.

As of the end of November, the ministry said it had endorsed spending worth some 62.6 billion won (US$54.4 million) from its South-North Cooperation Fund, or 5.6 percent of the total allocated for this year.

Just over half the sum, or about 32.8 billion won, went toward financing loans for inter-Korean trade and economic cooperation, while another 27.8 billion won was spent on improving exchanges among families separated across the border and other humanitarian projects.

The low spending rate apparently reflects the ban on cross-border exchanges following the deadly March sinking of a South Korean warship, blamed on a North Korean torpedo attack, and escalated tensions on the peninsula since the North’s artillery attack on a southern island last month.

The fund’s implementation rate ranged from 37 to 92.5 percent between 2000 and 2007, but nosedived after President Lee Myung-bak took power in 2008 with a hard-line policy on the North. That year, the rate stood at 18.1 percent before dropping further to 8.6 percent in 2009.

Read the full story here:
S. Korea spends 5.6 pct of inter-Korean cooperation fund
Yonhap
12/26/2010

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EU Extends Visa Bans and Asset Freezes on DPRK

Friday, December 24th, 2010

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The European Union has decided to renew and extend its list of people and entities in North Korea who are subject to restrictive measures.

One individual and six entities were added to the list due to their involvement with the North’s nuclear arms program or other weapons-related activities.

The measures include both a visa ban and an asset freeze. The list, which currently contains 18 individuals and 12 entities, was published in the EU Official Journal on Thursday.

The EU says “the decision also limits financing activities and trade” with Pyongyang, particularly of arms and related materials that could be used in the development of weapons of mass destruction.

The official EU publication, featuring all of the specifics, can be found here (PDF).

Read the full story here:
EU Extends Visa Bans and Asset Freezes on N.Korea
Choson Ilbo
12/24/2010

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Inter-Korean trade falls sharply amid heightened tensions

Wednesday, December 22nd, 2010

According to Yonhap:

Inter-Korean trade has fallen about 30 percent this year, largely affected by South Korea’s move to cut almost all business relations with North Korea after the North sank one of its naval ships in a torpedo attack in March, the customs office said Wednesday.

According to data provided by the Korea Customs Service (KCS), trade between the two Koreas amounted to US$464 million during the January-November period, down from $649 million recorded a year earlier.

In May, a multinational team of investigators released a report saying that North Korea torpedoed the South Korean warship Cheonan on March 26 near their disputed western maritime border, killing 46 sailors. The North has denied any involvement.

In response, the Seoul government suspended almost all business relations with Pyongyang on May 24 with the exception of the industrial complex in the border town of Kaesong, where South Korean firms are doing business in cooperation with workers from the North.

South Korea’s exports to the North came to $130 million during the cited period, down 28 percent a year earlier, while imports dropped 29 percent on-year to $334 million, the data showed.

Despite such a sharp shrinkage, trade through the Kaesong industrial complex, tallied in a separate statistic, remained robust. Trade amounted to $1.31 billion during the 11-month period, up 62 percent from a year earlier.

“There have been some disruptions due to heightened geopolitical tensions but the overall number of companies operating there increased compared with a year earlier, which resulted in a hike in production,” a KCS official said.

The official said that companies in the North Korean border town numbered 121 as of November this year, up from 93 a year earlier. An economic recovery in the South also helped boost production in factories there, the official said.

South Korea is the North’s second-largest trade partner after China. A suspension of inter-Korean business would significantly impact the reclusive communist nation’s efforts to secure cash, according to experts.

The two Koreas remain technically at war as their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean trade falls sharply amid heightened tensions
Yonhap
12/22/2010

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Statue of Mao’s son killed in Korean war unveiled on North Korean border

Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

By Michael Rank

A statue of Chairman Mao’s son Mao Anying 毛岸英, who was killed in the Korean war, has been unveiled in a town on the North Korean border where he served, a Chinese website reports.

The 2.7 metres high statue has been erected in Hekou 河口村 village in Changdian 长甸 county, in Liaoning province, which was on an important supply route and from where Mao Anying left for Korea. It is almost certainly the only monument in China to Mao Anying, who was killed in an American bombing raid on November 25, 1950, aged 28. He served in the war as a Russian-language interpreter.

A separate Chinese report shows the Mao Anying school in Changdian which was opened in 2003, replacing three previous schools. It describes in some detail how the area was affected during the Korean war, including how a nearby railway bridge was destroyed in the war and is known as the duan qiao or “broken bridge”, just like the better known bridge in Dandong, about 60 km away.

It quotes Mao Zedong as saying, “People always die in wars, the Chinese Volunteers People’s Army has already contributed many lives, their sacrifice is glorious. Anying was an ordinary soldier, so this should not be considered a big thing just because he was my son.”

Mao Anying is buried in North Korea, in Hoechang county in South Phyongan province about 100 km east of Pyongyang. It is a leading pilgrimage site for Chinese visitors, and Premier Wen Jiabao paid tribute there in 2009.

Additional Information:
1. Here is a satellite image of the destroyed bridge in Changdian.

2. Here is the location of Mao Anying’s official grave.

3. Here are the locations of three other Chinese People’s Volunteer (CPV) Cemeteries in the DPRK: Pyongyang, Kaesong, Namyang.

4. More information in the comments.

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Daedong Credit Bank Press Release

Monday, December 20th, 2010

On November 18, 2010, the US Treasury Department issued the following press release:

Treasury Designates Key Nodes of the Illicit Financing Network of North Korea’s Office 39

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today designated Korea Daesong Bank and Korea Daesong General Trading Corporation pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13551 for being owned or controlled by Office 39 of the Korean Workers’ Party.  Office 39 is a secretive branch of the government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) that provides critical support to North Korean leadership in part through engaging in illicit economic activities and managing slush funds and generating revenues for the leadership. Office 39 was named in the Annex to E.O. 13551, issued by President Obama on August 30, 2010, in response to the U.S. government’s longstanding concerns regarding North Korea’s involvement in a range of illicit activities, many of which are conducted through government agencies and associated front companies. Korea Daesong Bank is involved in facilitating North Korea’s illicit financing projects, and Korea Daesong General Trading Corporation is used to facilitate foreign transactions on behalf of Office 39.

“Korea Daesong Bank and Korea Daesong General Trading Corporation are key components of Office 39′s financial network supporting North Korea’s illicit and dangerous activities,” said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey.  “Treasury will continue to use its authorities to target and disrupt the financial networks of entities involved in North Korean proliferation and other illicit activities.”

E.O. 13551 targets for sanctions individuals and entities facilitating North Korean trafficking in arms and related materiel; procurement of luxury goods; and engagement in certain illicit economic activities, such as money laundering, the counterfeiting of goods and currency, bulk cash smuggling and narcotics trafficking. As a result of today’s action, any assets of the designated entities that are within U.S. jurisdiction are frozen and U.S. persons are prohibited from conducting financial or commercial transactions with these entities.

You can learn more about the Treasury’s press release here.

Here is the US Treasury Department’s new North Korea resource page.

In response, the Daedong Credit Bank issued the following press release:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

US Treasury Press Release 18th November 2010

London UK/Pyongyang DPRK, December 20th 2010

Daedong Credit Bank (DCB) has noted the press release of 18th November 2010 by the US Treasury and makes the following comments:

1.    Korea Daesong Bank (KDB) is a 30% shareholder in DCB.  DCB is not, and never has been, aware of any activity by KDB which is in breach of any of its obligations, domestic or international.  In particular, DCB is not aware of KDB having acted in breach of any sanctions.  DCB is not aware of any cause of concern about the conduct of KDB.

2.    KDB has no executive control of DCB.

3.    DCB is majority owned by overseas investors and is foreign-managed.

4.    DCB does not act and has never acted in breach of any of its domestic or international obligations.  DCB acts in a manner consistent with domestic and international law.

5.    DCB is apolitical and promotes foreign investment in the DPRK as a positive development.

The Daedong Credit Bank looks forward to playing a significant part in facilitating normal commercial relationships between the DPRK and the international business community.

About Daedong Credit Bank

Daedong Credit Bank is a joint venture retail bank based in Pyongyang. It was established in 1995 as “Peregrine Daesong Development Bank”. The Bank underwent a change of name and foreign ownership in 2000.

Daedong Credit Bank is the first, by fifteen years, foreign majority held bank in the DPRK. DCB considers itself a flagship successful joint venture in the DPRK, and a key part of the infrastructure needed to assist the foreign-invested ventures, which drive the country’s economic reforms.

The bank’s principal function is to offer normal “high street” banking facilities in hard currency to; foreign companies, joint ventures, international relief agencies and individuals doing legitimate business in the DPRK.

Daedong Credit Bank was the first bank in the DPRK to introduce, and vigorously implement, a comprehensive set of anti-money laundering procedures. DCB’s anti-money laundering procedure manual was introduced seven years ago, and subsequently updated based on anti-money laundering guidelines provided by the Asian Development Bank. The manual has been sent to, and accepted by, DCB’s international correspondent banks.

Daedong Credit Bank also maintains strict procedures for the detection and rejection of counterfeit bank notes; it uses regularly updated note checking machines, and has personnel with over 10 years’ of experience of handling notes. DCB have encountered and impounded the so-called ‘superdollar’ notes, proving that these notes (despite media misconceptions) are not undetectable.

The wealth of experience garnered over Daedong Credit Bank’s 15 years of successful operation is unrivaled.

Daedong Credit Bank has a significantly strong position in relation to the future economic development of the DPRK and, being the oldest established foreign invested commercial bank in the DPRK, it is the intention of the bank to capitalise on these advantages.

CONTACT INFORMATION:

Daedong Credit Bank office address in Pyongyang is:

Daedong Credit Bank
401, Potonggang Hotel
Ansan-dong
Pyongchon District
Pyongyang
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

Phone Switchboard  +850 2 381 2228/9    ext 401
Direct line     +850 2 381 4866
Mobile          +850 193 801 8400 *
*Note, the mobile number may not be obtainable from certain countries (eg UK and Hong Kong).
Corporate Website www.daedongcreditbank.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

US Treasury Press Release 18th November 2010

London UK/Pyongyang DPRK, December 20th 2010

Daedong Credit Bank (DCB) has noted the press release of 18th November 2010 by the US Treasury and makes the following comments:

1. Korea Daesong Bank (KDB) is a 30% shareholder in DCB. DCB is not, and never has been, aware of any activity by KDB which is in breach of any of its obligations, domestic or international. In particular, DCB is not aware of KDB having acted in breach of any sanctions. DCB is not aware of any cause of concern about the conduct of KDB.

2. KDB has no executive control of DCB.

3. DCB is majority owned by overseas investors and is foreign-managed.

4. DCB does not act and has never acted in breach of any of its domestic or international obligations. DCB acts in a manner consistent with domestic and international law.

5. DCB is apolitical and promotes foreign investment in the DPRK as a positive development.

The Daedong Credit Bank looks forward to playing a significant part in facilitating normal commercial relationships between the DPRK and the international business community.

About Daedong Credit Bank

Daedong Credit Bank is a joint venture retail bank based in Pyongyang. It was established in 1995 as “Peregrine Daesong Development Bank”. The Bank underwent a change of name and foreign ownership in 2000.

Daedong Credit Bank is the first, by fifteen years, foreign majority held bank in the DPRK. DCB considers itself a flagship successful joint venture in the DPRK, and a key part of the infrastructure needed to assist the foreign-invested ventures, which drive the country’s economic reforms.

The bank’s principal function is to offer normal “high street” banking facilities in hard currency to; foreign companies, joint ventures, international relief agencies and individuals doing legitimate business in the DPRK.

Daedong Credit Bank was the first bank in the DPRK to introduce, and vigorously implement, a comprehensive set of anti-money laundering procedures. DCB’s anti-money laundering procedure manual was introduced seven years ago, and subsequently updated based on anti-money laundering guidelines provided by the Asian Development Bank. The manual has been sent to, and accepted by, DCB’s international correspondent banks.

Daedong Credit Bank also maintains strict procedures for the detection and rejection of counterfeit bank notes; it uses regularly updated note checking machines, and has personnel with over 10 years’ of experience of handling notes. DCB have encountered and impounded the so-called ‘superdollar’ notes, proving that these notes (despite media misconceptions) are not undetectable.

The wealth of experience garnered over Daedong Credit Bank’s 15 years of successful operation is unrivalled.

Daedong Credit Bank has a significantly strong position in relation to the future economic development of the DPRK and, being the oldest established foreign invested commercial bank in the DPRK, it is the intention of the bank to capitalise on these advantages.

CONTACT INFORMATION:

Daedong Credit Bank office address in Pyongyang is:

Daedong Credit Bank
401, Potonggang Hotel
Ansan-dong
Pyongchon District
Pyongyang
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

Phone

Switchboard +850 2 381 2228/9 ext 401
Direct line
+850 2 381 4866
Mobile
+850 193 801 8400 *
*Note, the mobile number may not be obtainable from certain countries (eg UK and Hong Kong).

Corporate Website www.daedongcreditbank.com

#004

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Seoul undertakes effort to measure North Korea’s longevity

Monday, December 20th, 2010

According to the Washington Post:

Hoping to better predict when North Korea might collapse, South Korea is spending $1.6 million to come up with a formula that measures the stability of the world’s hardest-to-measure country.

The formula will take into account political loyalty in the military, recent economic output, even the ups and downs of leader Kim Jong Il’s health – all despite a lack of verifiable information on any of those factors.

“The major problem with this is the lack of data,” said one senior government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the project, known as the North Korea Situation Index, is underway.

When the Unification Ministry finalizes the index within the next month or so, its assessment – probably expressed as a single number, the official said – will represent an attempt to introduce some certitude into the increasingly polarized debate about the North’s life expectancy.

Predicting the date of the reclusive state’s demise has long been a favorite parlor game among policymakers in Seoul and Washington, but a year of significant developments – with North Korea unleashing several military provocations, drawing closer to China and all but formalizing a hereditary power transfer – has somehow bolstered two opposing views. Where some see evidence of a nation in disarray, others see a nation stronger than it has been in years.

“Unification is drawing nearer,” South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said last week of the state of affairs on the peninsula, adding that North Korea’s control of its people is unsustainable.

“That’s either wishful thinking or irresponsible,” said former foreign minister and opposition member Song Min-soon. “There are no grounds to say that. Even in the drastic case, like Kim Jong Il dying tomorrow, the succession has been paved, and I do not think the regime will collapse.”

Veteran analysts often describe North Korea as a paradox – and a poor target for statistical analysis. Just enough information trickles out that experts and officials can form whatever opinions they please. A year ago, for instance, Pyongyang authorized a drastic currency revaluation that wiped out many citizens’ savings. Some experts now say that mistake fomented still-bubbling dissent. Others, noting that it did not cause an uprising, say it merely demonstrated the extent of Pyongyang’s social control.

A year ago, the North had no anointed heir set to take over should Kim die. Now it does – except that Kim Jong Eun is 27 or 28 and might not be ready.

And unlike a year ago, U.S. visitors to Pyongyang are coming away impressed, noting widespread electricity, bustling markets and busier-than-usual streets. North Korea might, however, be focusing its efforts on its capital as it prepares to celebrate the 100-year anniversary in 2012 of the birth of founder Kim Il Sung.

“North Korea is the land of contradicting pictures,” said Katy Oh Hassig, a North Korea specialist at the Institute for Defense Analyses, which conducts research for the Pentagon. “It’s both stable and instable. It is stable in the sense that with the military, the elites, there’s still an imposed level of control. But it’s unstable because of the level of frustration among ordinary people – not spoken or expressed, but it’s brewing beneath the surface.”

Even those working to develop the Situation Index admit that measuring North Korea’s stability involves more guesswork than science. According to the senior official, much of the input comes from non-quantitative sources, such as interviews with recent defectors or anecdotal accounts of North Korean political dissent.

Then there is the challenge of determining the state of Kim Jong Il’s health, among the biggest variables in assessing the North’s stability. Diplomatic cables released in recent weeks by the WikiLeaks Web site describe the 68-year-old as a chain smoker and a recreational drug user. The senior official said that in an effort to measure Kim’s health, South Korea keeps track of his field trips to factories and military bases. This year, he has made 153 on-the-spot visits – a supposed sign of stable health.

The South also analyzes photos and video of Kim, such as those taken during an Oct. 10 parade to mark the 65th anniversary of the Workers’ Party, sometimes submitting the footage to its own team of doctors. During the parade, Kim was seen limping on his left leg, evidence of an August 2008 stroke. But he was also seen standing – and he had been out late at a public festival the night before.

North Korea has long outlasted predictions of its demise. After Kim Il Sung’s death in 1994, South Korean diplomats told the United States that North Korea would collapse within two years. A year later, Washington-based expert Nicholas Eberstadt, voicing a widespread opinion, wrote, “There is no reason at present to expect a reign by Kim Jong Il to be either stable or long.”

“The whole question about predicting or foreseeing revolutions or regime changes is, at best, an art – and never has been a science,” Eberstadt now says. “But there’s always a desire on the part of policymakers to know the unknowable, and sometimes they’ll pay big bucks to learn the unknowable.”

Collecting and verifying information from within North Korea is exceptionally complicated.  Fortunately today we have more sources of information than ever.  Not only are there the DPRK’s offical and quasi-official news outlets, we also have significant satellite imagery, 20,000 defectors in the ROK, and multiple organizations that specialize in getting information: Daily NK,  Rimjingang, Good Friends, PSCORE, Open Radio, North Korea Intellectual Solidarity, etc.

Here is a great paper on the complexities of obtaining and analyzing information from the DPRK.

Read the full story here:
Seoul undertakes effort to measure North Korea’s longevity
Washington Post
Chico Harlan
12/19/2010

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UNSC split on cause of Korea tension

Sunday, December 19th, 2010

According to Reuters:

The U.N. Security Council met in emergency session on Sunday to try to cool tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but the five big powers were split on whether to publicly blame North Korea for the crisis.

….

The 15 Security Council members were meeting behind closed doors to try to agree on a statement that Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said he hoped would send a “restraining signal” to both the North and the South.

Western envoys inside the meeting said the five permanent veto-wielding members were split over whether to blame North Korea for the crisis, as the United States, Britain, and France — along with Japan — demand, or to urge both sides to avoid acts that could deepen the crisis, as Russia and China want.

I have been posting chronological links to Yonpyong stories here.

Read the full story here:
U.N. council split on North Korea statement: diplomats
Reuters
12/20/2010

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