Archive for the ‘International Governments’ Category

Korea Telecom in deal DPRK firm

Monday, July 17th, 2006

Korea Times
7/17/2006

KT, South Korea’s leading fixed-line telecom carrier, signed a 360 million won ($380,000) outsourcing contract last week with a North Korean agency to develop six smart software programs.

A Ministry of Unification official yesterday said the deal between KT and Samcholli General Corp. was struck last Thursday as planned (see the front page of The Korea Times, July 13 edition).

“Samcholli agreed to develop six computer programs in such fields as next-generation networks and voice recognition by the end of this year for 360 million won,’’ said the ministry official, who declined to be named.

“Under the contract, KT can refuse to pay the promised money, if Samcholli fails to meet pre-set requirements by the operator,’’ he added.

However, the two sides could not reach an agreement on the pilot run of value-added processing this year with a pair of telecom items _ polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and splitters _ for some reason.

They initially planned to ink a deal on the test run of the value-added processing, under which KT will provide raw materials while Samcholli will crank out final products in return for commission.

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ROK aid to DPRK tops $1 billion since 1995

Sunday, July 16th, 2006

From the Korea Times:

South Korea’s economic assistance to North Korea in the first half of this year topped 141 billion won ($148 million), while the total government aid to the impoverished state since 1995 exceeded 1 trillion won ($1 billion).

According to government statistics on Sunday, the Unification Ministry gave assistance worth 141 billion won to the North in the first half of the year, the highest ever on a yearly basis. Last year’s assistance reached around 123 billion won, including rice aid.

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US evangelist to speak in DPRK

Sunday, July 16th, 2006

Update: from the Daily Comet (Its in Louisiana)

An Orange County pastor who wrote the best-selling book “The Purpose Driven Life” has delayed a planned visit to North Korea amid heightened tension with the U.S. over the country’s recent missile launches.

Rick Warren, pastor of Saddleback Valley Community Church, had planned to meet with North Korean officials Monday to arrange a future preaching trip, Warren’s spokesman A. Larry Ross said.

The trip has now been delayed, but may be rescheduled within the week, a statement from the church said.

The statement did not say whether the delay was due to the increased tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, which have flared since North Korea test fired seven missiles on July 4.

Warren was in Seoul, South Korea Sunday for meetings with church and government leaders and U.S. troops.

The proposed March 2007 preaching trip to North Korea would be to commemorate the 100th anniversary of a Christian revival in Pyongyang, now the country’s capital, and was to include a rally at a 15,000-seat stadium.

A 2002 U.S. State Department report estimated the country of 23 million has some 10,000 Protestants and 4,000 Catholics.

The U.S. does not maintain diplomatic relations with North Korea, though it has participated in negotiations over ending the country’s nuclear program.

Original Post: 7/8/2006

This is too bizarre to be fiction.  From World Net Daily (Which I do not read, BTW):

‘Purpose-Driven’ pastor to preach in N. Korea
Warren planning 1st evangelical stadium crusade in 60 years inside communist

Rick Warren may be put to a tough test next year when the Southern California preacher holds the first evangelical stadium crusade in 60 years in North Korea.

Warren, who is on a 40-day, 13-nation tour, will visit Kaesong on July 17 to plan for the March 2007 crusade after being invited by a group of North Korean businessmen who visited him at his Saddleback Church’s Lake Forest office last month.

“I will be the first preacher in 60 years to speak publicly in North Korea,” Warren told the Orange County Register. “I’m honored.”

He said the North Korean government would allow him to preach in a stadium seating 15,000 but a larger venue would be provided if he could fill the seats.

Because there are no diplomatic relations between the two countries, the businessmen, who say they met with Warren and extended the invitation to preach with approval of the North Korean government, are facilitating his visit next week.

“We are ready to go on our end. We’re just waiting for information back on approval and access,” Anne Krumm, a spokeswoman for the church, said.

North Korea’s missile tests have cast uncertainty on whether Warren, who is presently in Indonesia, can enter North Korea as planned.

“They’re trying to figure out how they can get in and how to do that,” she said.

Warren compares his opportunity to preach in the communist state to Rev. Billy Graham’s visit to the then-Soviet Union, saying he hopes to be able to promote religious freedom where it has been severely restricted since 1945.

“When you go in they have to loosen up on religious freedoms,” Warren said. “They have to just by your presence. It’s like Mandela going into a country. Automatically people start loosening up.”

Suzanne Scholte, chairman of the North Korea Freedom Coalition isn’t so sure.

“To go in there and believe that you could actually preach freely is an illusion. It won’t do anything to help the church. It will only put the true church at risk, and it will be used as a propaganda piece by the Kim Jong Il regime.”

Warren said he is aware that some might misinterpret his visit as an endorsement of the North Korean regime.

“When Billy Graham went to the Soviet Union, there was a lot of criticism of: ‘Well, they’re using you.’ And he said: ‘Well, yeah, they’re using me, but I’m using them too.’,” Warren said.

Graham was criticized following his 1982 visit to Moscow for letting himself be used by the communists when he said he had seen no evidence of religious persecution by the Soviet government and observed that religious freedom was somewhat greater among the people than he had anticipated.

When preaching at the Yelohovski Russian Orthodox Cathedral, Graham exhorted his audience to be better members of the communist state: “God can make you love people you normally would not love. He gives you the power to be a better worker, a more loyal citizen because in Romans 13 we are told to obey the authorities.”

Since 2001, North Korea has been designated a “country of particular concern” for violations of religious freedom. Its citizens may not belong to unauthorized religious groups, and believers who proselytize or have ties to evangelical groups in China are arrested, tortured or executed, a 2005 State Department report said.

Given North Korea’s history of persecution, Scholte’s fear is that the government will use the crusade to identify Christian believers who will be “rounded up and sent to a political prison camp” once Warren leaves the country.

Addendum from the Korea Times:

According to Warren’s own account posted on his Web site, a delegation of South Korean businessmen visited him at Saddleback Church in late June and invited him to speak at the public outdoor Christian service to be held in the North Korean capital in March next year marking the 100th anniversary of the Pyongyang Revival in 1907. The South Koreans had obtained permission for the service, which will be the first of its kind in 60 years as the dictatorial North Korean regime virtually bans any religious activities in public.

“My hope is that these visits will promote religious freedom in a country where the practice of individual faith has been tightly controlled and virtually prohibited since 1945,” he wrote.

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ROK halts DPRK humanitarian aid

Thursday, July 13th, 2006

The 2005 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics were selected for “having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis”.  I would check out thier work in order to make sense of the current DPRK/ROK diplomatic posturing.

From the Washington Post:

South Korea on Thursday suspended humanitarian aid to North Korea until it agrees to return to international nuclear disarmament talks.

The action infuriated visiting North Korean officials, who immediately cut off high-level talks in South Korea and stormed back home.

The decision to postpone consideration of a North Korean request for 500,000 tons of rice marked the South’s first punitive action against its impoverished communist neighbor since it defied the international community and test fired seven missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2, on July 4.

The move came as the administration of South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun has come under sharp public criticism at home for what many there viewed as a weak response by Seoul to the North’s missile tests.

South Korea on Thursday reiterated its deep opposition to a push by Japan and the United States to impose broader sanctions on North Korea through a draft resolution at the United Nation’s Security Council. Seoul has also vowed to maintain its “sunshine policy” of engagement, which has fostered the warmest ties between the Stalinist North and capitalist South since the Korean War divided them in two more than half a century ago.

But the decision to follow through with a previous threat to suspend food aid if North Korea tested missiles — a threat many experts doubted the South Koreans would stick to — displayed a new willingness by the South to use its significant economic clout to apply pressure on the North.

The North Koreans — for whom economic assistance by South Korea is topped only by China — appeared jolted by the decision. At talks being held in the South Korean city of Pusan that were originally scheduled to end Friday, Pyongyang’s delegation abruptly departed Thursday afternoon.

South Korea’s Yonhap news service reported that the North Korean officials left after circulating a statement calling the rupture the result of “reckless” attempts by South Korea to raise “irrelevant issues.” Those issues, South Korean officials said, were the recent missile tests and the North’s refusal to return to six-party talks on its nuclear programs.

The North bitterly condemned Seoul’s decision to suspend food aid, saying “the South side will pay a price before the nation for causing the collapse of the ministerial talks and bringing a collapse of North-South relations.”

South Korean officials, who in recent years have rolled out the red carpet for their visiting North Korean kin, this time offered them a simple meal and welcome bereft of customary sightseeing excursions and photo opportunities. When the North’s representatives understood they would not be returning with promises for more food aid, they simply left.

“The North Korean side expressed their position that additional negotiations would be unnecessary under the circumstance that additional humanitarian aid they need would be impossible,” Lee Kwan Se, a South Korean Unification Ministry official, told reporters.

For the United States and Japan, both pushing for a strong draft resolution at the United Nations that would ban international trade of North Korean missile and other military technology, the South Korean action was a rare diplomatic bright spot.

Christopher Hill, Washington’s top envoy on North Korea, left Beijing for Washington on Thursday after it became clear that Chinese efforts to persuade the Pyongyang government to come back to the six-party talks had apparently failed.

Before leaving, Hill said there was no indication that the North Koreans had changed their position to boycott the talks, which have been stalled since last November.

Japan, which has been deeply rattled by the North’s missile tests, vowed to continue pushing for a tough resolution that would impose sanctions on the North Koreas. But China and Russia back their alterative U.N. resolution unveiled on Wednesday. That draft would censure North Korea for its missile tests, but would endorse only voluntary measures aimed at restraining Pyongyang’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.

“The Chinese are as baffled as we are,” Hill told reporters in Beijing before departing. “China has done so much for that country and that country seems intent on taking all of China’s generosity and then giving nothing back.”

By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Foreign Service

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Half-Million Bucks Go to Kaesong Every Month

Wednesday, July 12th, 2006

Korea Times
Kim Yon-se
Staff Reporter

S-N Economic Cooperation Showpiece Under Double Threat

Nowadays the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the flagship of inter-Korean economic cooperation, is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
The United States has rejected a South Korean request to include it in their bilateral trade talks, taking away one of the few incentives for companies to set up shop there.

The Kaesong complex is a collaborative industrial park developed by South and North Korea located in North Korea close to the Korean Demilitarized Zone with direct road and rail access to South Korea.

The Kaesong complex is also bearing the fallout from Pyongyang’s missile tests that raised an uproar in the international community, giving Washington an excuse to push hard for its ongoing effort to choke the North’s cash flow.

“Kaesong is a lifeline that keeps alive inter-Korean business cooperation,’’ said an official who is involved in the project. “It is at a fragile stage so if anything happens that changes the current status of the Kaesong complex, there would be no turning back.’’

He said that the government is expected to keep the project going at all costs.

In the Kaesong complex, about 7,700 North Koreans work for Hyundai Asan, the project manager and scores of South Korean companies there. A North Korean worker there earns $64 in wages and allowances a month, making for half a million dollars in the monthly total payment. Most of the money is paid on the 10th of the month. This month, it was paid as scheduled.

“It is unthinkable that the wages would be withheld,’’ the official said, when asked what would happen if economic sanctions were slapped on the communist country. “I don’t think that the government would do that.’’

Some U.S. officials have said South Korea’s continuation of pushing Kaesong goods as an item for the FTA talks may be a big hurdle for signing the final pact.

“The agreement should only cover products of the U.S. and the Republic of Korea. That is our position,’’ Assistant U.S. Trade Representative Wendy Cutler told reporters.

Aside from the negative stance toward products created by North Korean employees from the North’s raw materials, the U.S. has strategies not to allow made-in-South Korea products, especially clothes, made from imported materials from China or Taiwan, according to sources.

If the U.S. allows the Kaesong products as an FTA item, it has no choice but to accept the products made from non-Korean textiles.

The U.S. clothing market has already been flooded with cheap products from China and Southeast Asian countries that are labeled as premium brands, such as Polo and Burberry.

Korean civic protestors argue the Korean government is unprepared for the talks and has few negotiation strategies. In fact, the government is falling short in making Kaesong products acknowledged as an FTA item.

According to the Chosun Ilbo, an ultra-conservative vernacular daily, a government official said Korea will ultimately drop the issue in the future talks though it will not scrap the issue on the official negotiation table.

Citing the officials’ remarks, the newspaper said it is impossible for Korea to receive concessions from the U.S. on Kaesong products and the government will use the issue as leverage for other issues.

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South’s Korea Telecom hires DPRK firm for software development

Wednesday, July 12th, 2006

From the Korea Times:

KT to Sign Deal With NK Firm

By Kim Tae-gyu
Staff Reporter

South Korea’s leading fixed-line telecom carrier, KT, Thursday plans to sign a 360 million won ($380,000) outsourcing contract in Pyongyang with a North Korean institute to develop six sophisticated software programs.

A Ministry of Unification official said Wednesday two KT executives went via Shenyang, China, to the North Korean capital to sign the deal with the North’s Samcholli General Corp.

However, when contacted, KT refused to confirm the contract.

Nonetheless, the ministry official, who declined to be named, said: “Samcholli will develop six computer programs in such fields as next-generation networks and voice recognition for 360 million won by the end of this December.”

“Plus, they are to agree to launch a pilot run of valued-added processing this year with a pair of telecom products _ polyvinyl chloride (PVC) coffins and splitters,” he said.

Under the envisioned agreement on the valued-added processing, KT will provide raw materials to Samcholli, which will manufacture the products in return for some commissions.

The official said the range of valued-added products will be substantially expanded next year should this year’s trials proved successful.

Asked whether the step will be an issue given the North’s soured relationship with Seoul over the recent test-firing of seven missiles, the unnamed official flatly rebuffed such concerns.

“Basically, we think this kind of Inter-Korean cooperation between private entities should continue regardless of political landscapes,” he said.

“In addition, this is a commercial contract, not one aimed at helping the North. If Samcholli fails to meet requirements of KT, the latter can refuse to pay the promised money,” he added.

Indeed, KT struck a similar deal with Samcholli last year and the former state monopoly paid 164,000 euros (nearly 200 million won) only after Samcholli finished developing the telecom software as scheduled.

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DPRK officials to get econ 101 in Switzerland

Tuesday, July 11th, 2006

From the Korea Times:

A group of North Korean officials will receive training on multilateral diplomacy and market economy in Switzerland this summer, a Swiss research institute said Tuesday.

The North Koreans, whose number was not immediately known, are slated to enroll for the training from Aug. 21 to Sept. 22 at the Geneva-based Center for Applied Studies in International Negotiations, center officials said.

The Swiss think-tank, founded in 1979, has been running a short-term training course for North Korean officials every year since 1997. Its program is financed by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, a governmental body which last year earmarked 5 million franc ($3.1 million) to help North Korea.

In 2004, 14 North Korean officials benefited from the center’s program.

During their stay in Switzerland, they visited the European Union, headquartered in the Brussels, Belgium, and met with members of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

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Summary of current and proposed trade sanctions on DPRK

Tuesday, July 11th, 2006

From the Korea Times:

You may be surprised to hear that North Korea is either in violation, or the target, of more than 13 U.S. laws, which include laws dealing with transfer of missile technology to other countries and human rights issues. Three of these laws, however, have direct bearing on U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea.

The first is the U.S. Export Control Act of 1949 that became the basis for the U.S. invoking a total embargo against North Korea on June 28, 1950, only three days after North Korea invaded South Korea. The second is the Trade Agreement Extension Act of 1951 that was the basis for banning the most favored nation (MFN) tariffs on North Korea’s exports to the United States. As you know, all member countries of the World Trade Organization have to abide by the MFN regulation that requires these nations to levy the same low tariffs to all member nations of the WTO. Without MFN, there is no way for North Korea to export anything to the U.S. because higher tariffs make them impossible to compete. The MFN is so widely spread that it is now known as the normal trade relation (NTR). North Korea was denied MFN tariff status on September 1, 1951.

The third is the Export Administration Act of 1979 that allowed North Korea to be branded as a terrorist state when its agents blew up KAL 007 on November 19, 1987. At the time of the explosion, Korean Air Lines 007 was in flight from Bagdad (Iraq) to Bankok (Thailand). The explosion killed 115 passengers and crew. On January 20, 1988, North Korea was placed on the list of countries supporting international terrorism.

Placement on the list made it impossible for North Korea to borrow development funds from international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

On May 25-28, 1999, former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry visited North Korea and delivered a U.S. proposal. On September 13, 1999, North Korea responded positively by pledging to freeze long-range missile tests. On September 17, 1999, President Clinton agreed to the first significant easing of economic sanctions against North Korea since the end of the Korean War in 1953 by announcing the lifting of most export restrictions applied to North Korea in response to North Korea’s willingness to cease long-range missile testing.

Details of eased U.S. economic sanctions on North Korea were announced on June 19, 2000. Key provisions included that the ban on exports to North Korea had ended, that U.S. passports were valid for travel to North Korea, and that U.S. travel service providers were authorized to organize group tours to North Korea. Among the notable U.S. sanctions that were not lifted are the denial of MFN status and the placement on the list of countries supporting international terrorism.

You may wonder what more economic sanctions can be levied against North Korea beyond the three already in place. To answer this question, you need to know the extent of North Korea’s foreign trade.

Contrary to what you may have heard or believe, latest United Nations trade data indicate that North Korea has trade relations of imports, exports or both with no less than 108 countries, which exclude South Korea because inter-Korean trade is not recorded as trade data in the U.S. trade database. North Korea’s major trading partners in 2004 were, in order of the amount, China ($585,651,972), Japan (164,101,115), Germany ($100,739,000), Brazil ($73,412,125), and Mexico ($47,662,978) for exports, and China ($799,450,316), Russia ($204,818,560), Brazil ($169,921,763), India ($121,080,999), and Netherlands ($120,525,232) for imports. The total amount of North Korea’s exports for 2004 was $1,256,533,361, while the total amount of North Korea’s imports for the same year was $1,937,738,240, with the trade deficit of $681,204,879, representing no less than 54.2 percent of total exports.

Now you have an idea. The new economic sanctions may take the form of a multi-national ban of trade with North Korea. The new economic sanctions may also include a complete ban of any transfer of money to North Korea from many Koreans who live in Japan and support North Korea.

There is no doubt that a complete ban of North Korea’s foreign trade, if imposed, would easily lower the current North Korean GNP to the 1999 level when hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of North Koreans starved to death.

In view of the large number of countries engaged in trade with North Korea, it would be impossible to impose a complete ban on North Korea’s foreign trade without naval blockade, which may escalate tensions on the Korean peninsula so rapidly that China and South Korea may not be willing to go along with multilateral economic sanctions.

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Japanese tax authorities crack down on DPRK aid

Tuesday, July 11th, 2006

From the Donga:

The Japanese media reported on July 10 that the Japanese prosecutors and taxation authorities raided a private organization providing humanitarian assistance to North Korea and a construction company supporting the aid group.

The Tokyo District Public Prosecutors’ Office and the National Tax Agency searched an office of “Rainbow Bridge,” a private group in Tokyo.

The group was established to provide North Koreans with clothes, food, trucks and power generators free of charge in April, 2000. In 2003, the secretary-general of the group drew attention after he visited the Stalinist country, met six offspring of abducted Japanese citizens, and brought and gave their photos and letters to their parents who had arrived in Japan.

The search was reportedly part of an investigation into Mizutani, a construction company on suspicion of tax evasion.

With regard to reasons to support Rainbow Bridge, Mizutani explained to the investigation authorities they considered it as an investment needed to prepare business in North Korea.

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What is the DPRK-China realtionship

Tuesday, July 11th, 2006

An interesting strategic analysis fo the DPRK/PRC realtionship in a regional competition context.  From the Council on Foreign Relations:

Introduction
China and North Korea have been allies for more than half a century. Beijing is a key provider of food and fuel to Kim Jung-Il’s regime, and it is heavily invested in preventing a destabilizing regime collapse that would send North Korean refugees flooding across its northeastern border. But as Kim tests ballistic missiles and develops his nation’s nuclear weapons capacity, China may be rethinking its support.

How strong is the current relationship between North Korea and China?
China has supported North Korea since Chinese fighters flooded onto the Korean peninsula to fight for the Communist Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 1950. Since the Korean War divided the peninsula between the North and South, China has given both political and economic backing to North Korea’s leaders: Kim Il Sung, and his son and successor, Kim Jung-Il. In recent years, China has been seen as one of the authoritarian regime’s few allies.

On July 4, North Korea test-fired a series of ballistic missiles despite explicit warnings from Beijing, Tokyo, and Washington. This led to an unusually public rebuke from Chinese officials, a sign of strain in the relationship. Despite their long alliance, experts say Beijing cannot control Pyongyang. “In general, Americans tend to overestimate the influence China has over North Korea,” says Daniel Pinkston, a Korea specialist and director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California. At the same time, China has too much invested in North Korea to halt or withdraw its support entirely. “The idea that the Chinese would turn their backs on the North Koreans is clearly wrong,” says Adam Segal, the Maurice R. Greenberg senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

How does North Korea benefit from the relationship?
Pyongyang is economically dependent on China, which provides most of its food and energy supplies. North Korea gets about 70 percent of its food and 70 to 80 percent of its fuel from China. Beijing is Pyongyang’s largest trading partner, and an estimated 300,000 North Koreans live in China, many of them migrant workers who send much-needed remittances back home.

China is also a strong political ally. “As an authoritarian regime that reformed, they understand what Kim Jung-Il is most concerned with—survival,” Segal says. China has repeatedly blocked UN Security Council resolutions against North Korea, including some threatening sanctions. China has also hosted the Six-Party Talks, a series of meetings in which North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and the United States have tried to resolve the security concerns associated with North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. There and in other international forums, China is seen as a buffer between North Korea and the United States and Japan, which favor punitive sanctions and other measures to prevent Pyongyang from gaining nuclear weapons.

How does China benefit?
China’s support for Pyongyang ensures a stable nation on its northeastern border, as well as providing a buffer zone between China and democratic South Korea. North Korea’s allegiance is also important for China as a bulwark against U.S. military dominance of the region and the rise of Japan’s military. And China gains economically from its association with North Korea; growing numbers of Chinese firms are investing in North Korea and gaining concessions like preferable trading terms and port operations. Chinese trade and investment in North Korea now totals $2 billion per year. “They’re becoming a stakeholder in the North Korean economy,” Pinkston says.

What are the drawbacks to the relationship?
Pyongyang is not an ally Beijing can count on. Kim Jung-Il’s foreign policy is, like its leader, highly unpredictable. “North Korea is extremely difficult to deal with, even as an ally,” says Daniel Sneider, the associate director for research at Stanford’s Asia-Pacific Research Center and a former longtime foreign correspondent specializing in Asia. “This is not a warm and fuzzy relationship,” he says. “North Korean officials look for reasons to defy Beijing.” Some experts say the missile tests were just one example of North Korea pushing back against China’s influence. “”It was certainly a sign of independence [and] a willingness to send a message to China as well as everyone else,” Segal says. The Chinese, who favor “quiet diplomacy” with North Korea instead of public statements, took the unusual step of making public the fact that Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, warned North Korea not to launch their missiles. The fact that Pyongyang did anyway has hurt China’s image, other experts say.

What kind of leverage does Beijing have over Pyongyang?
Not as much as outsiders think, experts say. Beijing has bullied or bribed Pyongyang officials to get them to the negotiating table at the Six-Party Talks many times. “It’s clear that the Chinese have enormous leverage on North Korea in many respects,” Sneider says. “But can China actually try to exercise that influence without destabilizing the regime? Probably not.” Pinkston says that for all his country’s growing economic ties with China, Kim still makes up his own mind: “At the end of the day, China has little influence over the military decisions.”

What are China’s goals for its engagement with North Korea?
“For the Chinese, stability and the avoidance of war are the top priorities,” Sneider says. “From that point of view, the North Koreans are a huge problem for them, because Pyongyang could trigger a war on its own.” Stability is a huge worry for Beijing because of the specter of hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees flooding into China. “The Chinese are most concerned about the collapse of North Korea leading to chaos on the border,” Segal says.

If North Korea does provoke a war with the United States, China and South Korea would bear the brunt of any military confrontation on the Korean peninsula. Yet both those countries have been hesitant about pushing Pyongyang too hard, for fear of making Kim’s regime collapse. “They’re willing to live with a degree of ambiguity over North Korea’s military capability,” Sneider says, as long as Pyongyang doesn’t cross the “red line” of nuclear testing. Even then, “the Chinese can live with a nuclear North Korea, because they see the weapon as a deterrent against the United States, not them,” agrees Segal. But North Korea’s military moves could start an arms race in Northeast Asia and are already strengthening militarism in Japan, which could push for its own nuclear weapons if North Korea officially goes nuclear.

How does Washington factor into the relationship?
The United States has pushed North Korea to verifiably and irreversibly give up its uranium enrichment activities before Washington will agree to bilateral talks. Experts say Washington and Beijing have very different views on the issue. “Washington believes in using pressure to influence North Korea to change its behavior, while Chinese diplomats and scholars have a much more negative view of sanctions and pressure tactics,” Pinkston says. “They tend to see public measures as humiliating and counterproductive.” Since U.S. officials have repeatedly refused North Korean invitations to establish bilateral talks, “the Chinese have some sympathy for the North Korean view that the United States is not interested in negotiating,” Segal says.

Pinkston says the adversarial Pyongyang-Washington ties will likely not improve. “I don’t think the relationship with the Bush administration is reparable,” he says. “It’s a complete disaster, and someone else has to pick up the pieces. We can only hope it doesn’t degenerate more, but that the status quo will be maintained” until a new U.S. administration takes over, he says. In the meantime, U.S. pundits and lawmakers who push China to take what it sees as destabilizing actions in its region—i.e. support punitive actions or sanctions against North Korea—”are living in a different world,” Pinkston says.

“There’s always been a difference between how the Chinese felt we should approach these negotiations and how the Bush administration felt about it,” Sneider says. “That tension has always been there, and both governments have gone out of their way to obscure that gap because they’re well aware that the North Koreans are good at exploiting those differences.”

What is likely to happen to the China-North Korea relationship?
Despite the tensions caused by the recent missile tests, the relationship will likely continue to be close. Each side has too much invested in the other to drastically change the situation, experts say. If North Korea continues to test missiles, it’s possible that China will react more strongly than it has in the past. Most of the nations involved in the crisis will try to bring North Korea back to the Six-Party Talks. But after that, it is unclear what happens next. “Everyone who deals with North Korea recognizes them as a very unstable actor,” Sneider says.

However, some experts say North Korea is acting assertively both in its relationship with China and on the larger world stage. “The North Koreans are developing a much more realist approach to their foreign policy,” Pinkston says. “They’re saying imbalances of power are dangerous and the United States has too much power—so by increasing their own power they’re helping to balance out world stability. It’s neo-realism straight out of an International Relations textbook.”

The China-North Korea Relationship
Esther Pan, Staff Writer

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