North Korean Economy Watch

By Michael Rank

North Korea is spreading its net wider in its quest to attract more tourists from China, and now has its eye on the southern province of Guangdong as well as Shanghai.

A Chinese website (link here) reports that a delegation of North Korean travel agents is expected to travel to Guangzhou next month and that local tour operators in Guangzhou and nearby Shenzhen, on the Hong Kong border, are eager to do business.

Tourists will have a choice of two routes to North Korea – they can either fly to Shenyang or Dalian in northeast China and then take the train to Pyongyang via Dandong, or they can fly to Pyongyang via Shenyang. It puts the price at 5,000 yuan ($730) but doesn’t say how many days the tours last or any further details. It says the main attractions will be the usual ones of Pyongyang, the DMZ at Panmunjom, the Myohyang mountains and the annual Arirang pageant.

As NKEW reported in July, North Korea is also targeting Shanghai as a source of tourism revenue, and there is further talk of charter flights from Qingdao in Shandong province to Pyongyang.

Quite apart from the question of how many Chinese are likely to be tempted to visit a Cultural Revolution-type theme park like North Korea, there are also bureaucratic hurdles to overcome. North Korea does not have “approved destination status” for Chinese tourists, which means in theory at least that travel there is restricted to business groups and official delegations. (Incidentally, South Korea doesn’t seem to be an ADS country either).

As the website notes, “An important issue within ADS is to avoid possible illegal immigration through tourism channels. All tourism groups travelling within the ADS framework are supposed to be monitored by both Chinese and foreign authorities to ensure they return to China. Embassies and consulates apply different methods to monitor the return of the Chinese tourists. Whenever a tourism group member does not return to China, the local travel agency is held responsible and sanctions are applied.” Not that there is much likelihood of Chinese tourists defecting to North Korea.

Furthermore, China is encouraging tourists to counter the world recession by spending their money at home, and although this is China-DPRK year marking the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations, a further obstacle is the fact that Chinese citizens now need a passport to travel there, not just a border pass that was all that was needed previously to cross into the country at Dandong by train.

Nick Bonner of Koryo Tours says: “We have noticed a sharp drop in Chinese tourists visiting DPRK in comparison to this time last year – even though the spectacle of the 100,000 strong performance of the mass games is still going on and has been extended to October 15th.

“I think next year Chinese tourism will be coming back strong – there is a certain ‘busman’s holiday’ attraction for Chinese tourists to visit DPRK.”

According to Yonhap:

Trade volume during the January-June period totaled US$1.1 billion, down 3.7 percent from a year earlier and the first decline since 1999, the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) said in an emailed release that cited official Chinese data. The drop was in striking contrast with a 41 percent increase during the same period last year and a 16 percent gain in 2007.

North Korea was put under U.N. sanctions for its nuclear test in May, barring its weapons trade and strictly limiting cash flows into the country. The sanctions, however, do not appear to have affected North Korea’s trade with China, an official at South Korea’s Unification Ministry said.

Prices of crude oil, which account for a quarter of North Korean imports from China, subsided this year after steep hikes in 2007 and 2008, said Jeon Dong-myeong, a ministry official overseeing North Korean trade.

“It’s not a steep decline. The 3.7 percent decline in trade volume can arise from price differences,” Jeon said.

North Korean imports from China amounted to $750 million, down 8.4 percent, while exports increased by 8.2 percent to $352 million, according to KOTRA.

By item, North Korea’s crude oil imports showed the steepest decline of 54 percent, or $111 million.

Food imports slightly increased to $23 million, and fertilizer imports considerably grew to $11.9 million, close to the amount the North brought in during all of 2008, $12.7 million.

Despite the international sanctions on the country, North Korea’s trade with Germany gained by 46.53 million euros during the first half of this year, according to KOTRA. Citing Germany’s figures, it said trade volume was up 160 percent from the same period last year, and up 30 percent from the total trade volume the two countries registered for last year.

Read the full story here:
N. Korean trade with China falls slightly in first half of 2009
Yonhap
9/23/2009

Further information and requests:
1. Here is the PR of China’s Ministry of Commerce database where trade data is published (does not work well with Mozilla). The usual caveats apply.

2. I have given up on the KOTRA web page.  Can someone please send me the KOTRA email mentioned in the Yonhap story?

3.  Here are general stories about North Korea’s trading activities. Here are stories mentioning specific trade statistics.

UPDATE: According to Yonhap, Chinese and Australian ships were shipping the arms:

North Korean cargo carrying arms exports to Iran left a western port five days after Pyongyang’s nuclear test in May and was transferred aboard Chinese and Australian freighters before being seized by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in July, according to an Italian company that handled the delivery.

Mario Carniglia, head of the international freight-forwarding firm Otim, said the containers, reportedly loaded with rocket launchers, detonators, and munitions, were shipped via the Chinese cities of Dalian and Shanghai and were transferred to an Australian vessel just after the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 1874 which bans the North from engaging in arms trade.

“(The containers) left the Nampo Port on May 30,” he said in a recent interview with Yonhap News Agency in Rome on Wednesday. A North Korean ship carrying the 10 containers arrived in Dalian two days later and a Chinese cargo ship moved them to Shanghai on June 13, he said.

“The containers were placed on (the Australian freighter) ANL-Australia in Shanghai,” he said, flipping through related documents.

The cargo was on its scheduled course until the UAE intercepted the ANL-Australia on July 22. The U.S. Navy had been focusing on trailing another North Korean vessel, the Kangnam 1, which appeared to be headed to Myanmar also carrying weapons exports.

The seizure was the first made under Resolution 1874 that calls upon all states to inspect cargo to and from North Korea if they have “information that provides reasonable grounds to believe the cargo contains” illicit weapons.

The Australian government said earlier, based on its own probe, that there were rocket-propelled grenades and other weapons in the seized containers, though Carniglia said his firm did not know the contents of the cargo.

He said North Korea provided documents identifying the content as “Oil Pumping Equipment.”

“We couldn’t see the contents as the containers were sealed when shipped from Nampo,” he said in the interview conducted in Italian. He refused to identify the exporter in North Korea, citing business ethics.

“All we were responsible for was handling the shipping from China to Iran,” Carniglia said.

He added that North Korea has not filed a complaint or asked for the return of the cargo, held at the UAE now for more than 50 days.

The UAE is reportedly in consultation with the U.N. sanctions committee on how to handle the seized shipment.

In a related move, the U.N. committee demanded an explanation from North Korea last month for the apparent arms export attempt.

The head of the North’s mission to the U.N., Sin Son-ho, sent a reply letter reiterating his country’s position that it is not bound by any U.N. resolution.

Sin also said that North Korea’s experimental uranium enrichment program is in a “completion phase,” claiming the country has made advancements in mastering an alternative route to producing nuclear weapons apart from its plutonium-based program.

ORIGINAL POST: According to Bloomberg:

The United Arab Emirates has seized a ship carrying North Korean-manufactured munitions, detonators, explosives and rocket-propelled grenades bound for Iran in violation of United Nations sanctions, diplomats said.

The UAE two weeks ago notified the UN Security Council of the seizure, according to the diplomats, who spoke on condition they aren’t named because the communication hasn’t been made public. They said the ship, owned by an Australian subsidiary of a French company and sailing under a Bahamian flag, was carrying 10 containers of arms disguised as oil equipment.

The council committee that monitors enforcement of UN sanctions against North Korea wrote letters to Iran and the government in Pyongyang asking for explanations of the violation, and one to the UAE expressing appreciation for the cooperation, the envoys said. No response has been received and the UAE has unloaded the cargo, they said.

…

he Security Council voted on June 12 to adopt a resolution that punishes North Korea for its recent nuclear-bomb test and missile launches through cargo inspections and enforcement of restrictions on financial transactions. The measure calls for the interdiction at seaports, airports or in international waters of any cargo suspected of containing arms or nuclear or missile-related materials going to or from North Korea.

According to the Wall Street Journal:

According to the Security Council diplomat, the weapons were carried on an Australian vessel, the ANL-Australia, which was flying under a Bahamian flag. According to an Aug. 14 letter sent to the U.N. sanctions committee, the exporting company was an Italian shipper, Otim, which exported the items from its Shanghai office.

“The cargo manifest said the shipment contained oil-boring machines, but then you opened it up and there were these items,” the diplomat said. ANL and Otim officials couldn’t immediately be reached to comment.

…

A spokeswoman for the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said the Australian government is aware of the incident and is investigating to determine whether any Australian laws may have been broken.

The seizure could also raise fresh questions about North Korea’s intentions. After taking an aggressive stance against the West earlier this year, Pyongyang appears to have softened its rhetoric, releasing two captive American journalists and sending a delegation to meet with South Korea’s president.

Read more here:
UAE Seizes North Korean Weapons Shipment to Iran
Bloomberg
Bill Varner
8/28/2009

Cargo of North Korea Matériel Is Seized en Route to Iran
Wall Street Journal
Peter Spiegel and Chip Cummins
8/29/2009

UPDATE: This story was picked up by Yonhap, the Korea Herald, and the Choson Ilbo  (twice).–probably because of Joshua.

ORIGINAL POST:
By Michael Rank

Chinese police have reported how the bodies of 56 North Koreans attempting to flee to China, including seven children, were found floating in the Yalu river in 2003.

An official notice issued by police in the border town of  Baishan in Jilin province describes how 53 corpses were discovered by local people on the morning of October 3, 2003, followed by three more at 5 a.m. the following day.

“An examination found that the dead were all citizens of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Postmortems showed that the 56 bodies had all been shot. The evidence suggests that they had been shot by Korean armed border guards when attempting to cross illicitly into China,” says the document, dated October 7, 2003.

The dead consisted of 36 males and 20 females, including five boys and two girls.

The bodies were cremated locally on October 6, and township officials are “awaiting instructions from higher authority” on what to do with the ashes and with possessions found on the bodies. The document was issued by Badaogou police station in Baishan, a town in Changbai Korean Autonomous County which covers a large area on the North Korean border.

I am grateful to “treasuresthouhast” who posted the document here. He took it from an unnamed Chinese blog which apparently reposted it from bbs.163.com.

According to Bloomberg, North Koreans in the Chinese city of Dandong have slashed purchases of ham, shirts, and candy at UK-owned Tesco:

At the Tesco store, Zhao said fewer North Koreans are coming in, and they’re spending less. Most North Koreans can’t freely cross the border, and only those with the ability to travel abroad shop in Dandong.

“Before this year, they would buy over 10,000 yuan in goods, now they typically only spend thousands,” she said. (10,000 yuan is about $1,460.)

Shopkeepers working within sight of the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge spanning the Yalu River that separates the countries said traffic is down by as much as half since May.

Fan Bo said he sells about 10 generators a month to North Korea, all to Chinese companies doing business there. “The North Koreans don’t need generators,” he said. “They don’t use electricity.” Mao Yifeng, a tire seller, blames the global financial crisis for the slowdown.

Over the course of half an hour on Aug. 12, two empty blue Chinese trucks crossed the bridge into Dandong. One diesel freight train, also Chinese, crossed to China from North Korea. The open door on one of its two cars revealed there was nothing inside.

Over 45 minutes the next morning, two empty trucks and three empty North Korean buses crossed into China. No trucks were seen heading into the North.

A souvenir salesman who only gave his surname, Huang, said he’s seen road and rail traffic on the Friendship Bridge fall by about half since North Korea’s nuclear test in May. “It was never busy, now it’s even less,” Huang said.

….Trade Aid

China is the North’s biggest trading partner. Its support for the regime can be gauged by the trade surplus it runs with the country, according to Nicholas Eberstadt, a Korea specialist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. That fell to $386 million in the first half of this year from $1.27 billion in all of 2008, as China’s imports of coal from North Korea hit the highest level in at least five years, China’s Ministry of Commerce data show.

“China is Kim Jong Il’s patron of last resort,” said Eberstadt. “If net transfers from China continue to shrink, it will be ‘back to the 1990s’ for North Korea. That can only be an alarming prospect for Kim Jong Il and his would-be successors.”

Official trade statistics, incomplete and not including goods smuggled by sea or across the 1,415-kilometer (880 mile) border, show two-way trade between China and North Korea fell 2.5 percent in the first six months of this year to $1.12 billion, according to China’s Commerce Ministry. Trade between China and South Korea during the same period was $67.6 billion.

Read the full artilce here:
North Koreans Spurn Tesco Ham as China Trade Withers
Bloomberg
Michael Forsythe
8/19/2009

By Michael Rank

Far fewer Chinese tourists are visiting North Korea from the border towns of Yanbian and Yanji due to nerves over the country’s recent nuclear and missile tests, a Chinese website reports.

This is normally the height of the tourist season, the report notes, but this year hardly any tourists taking tours to visit the nearby North Korean port city of Rajin (Najin) 라진/나진. “In previous years there have been about 300 or 400 tourists a day [crossing into North Korea] at this time, but recently there have been only about 20,” it quotes a Yanbian travel agent as saying.

Two-day trips from Yanji cost only 800 yuan ($117) per person but because the nuclear testing and rocket launch sites are nearby most tourists are keeping away, the report adds.  Rajin is in fact about 250 km north of the nuclear testing site near Gilju (Kilchu) 길주 but who know what is safe…?

The report claims that things are different in the biggest border city Dandong and that tourists are crossing the frontier at normal levels there.

But this was contradicted by a surprisingly frank report in the China Daily earlier this month which quoted Li Peng, general manager of the Dandong branch of the State-owned China International Travel Service (CITS), as saying: “The revenues from four-day tours and business trips to the DPRK have plunged at least 50 percent compared to last year.”

He said about 30,000 tourists have traveled with his company to the DPRK from Dandong in the past two years, with a four-day visit costing around 2,400 yuan ($350) per person.

“But during the first seven months of this year, we have seen 2,000 make the trip. Many canceled because of safety concerns,” he said, adding that the recent capture and imprisonment of two journalists from the United States had done nothing to ease those concerns.

The journalists have since been released, but it’s unlikely this will result in a massive rebound in China-North Korea tourism.

Another China Daily report was remarkably frank about smuggling which has also been badly hit by the nuclear furore. It also quoted Dandong Federal Business Corp Chairman Shan Jie, who said: “Most of the nearly 1,000 legal enterprises involved in border trade here have stopped operations.”

Meanwhile, the latest report focuses on a North Korean waitress in Dandong who “sports a luxury Gucci watch on her left wrist – and a Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) flag pin on her chest.”

“Her restaurant is one of Dandong’s most luxurious and one of the few establishments in the Chinese city bordering the DPRK that is still seeing brisk business in the wake of Pyongyang’s nuclear test in May and subsequent missile launches.”

China Daily reports on a North Korean restaurant in the Chinese border city of Dandong (hat tip to O.P.). According to the article:

Choe says she came to Dandong four months ago. Her restaurant is one of Dandong’s most luxurious and one of the few establishments in the Chinese city bordering the DPRK that is still seeing brisk business in the wake of Pyongyang’s nuclear test in May and subsequent missile launches.

The Korea Restaurant, is located near the only bridge linking Dandong and the DPRK, through which the Chinese army reached the DPRK and joined the Korean War in 1950. All of about 20 tables were full on the Saturday afternoon we visited recently, despite prices that are double that of common restaurants in Dandong serving the same food.

Some men from the DPRK in dark yellow or blue suits, with pins of DPRK leader on their chests, also dined there.

Choe’s colleagues, equally young and attractive, wait at tables in blue skirt suits and light makeup. They wear stylish, high-heeled shoes and watches, serving guests with smiles.

“The main reason for the restaurant’s good business is the DPRK waitresses. It’s the easiest way to meet people from that country,” said a taxi driver, surnamed Li.

“Though border trade has been slashed, more and more people are interested in the DPRK after the recent events. You can even see more Westerners here,” Li said.

Shan Jie, board chairman of the Dandong Federal Business Corp which runs cross-border trade, said the waitresses “are by no means common DPRK citizens”.

“They’re all children of DPRK cadres and graduates of Kim Il-sung University. They can speak Chinese, and are very talented in singing and dancing,” said Shan, who has conducted businesses with the DPRK for 16 years. Most of the DPRK cadres attend that university, he said.

The girls were sent to Dandong for training and will have “a promising future as civil servants” when going back home, Shan said.

“It’s a good opportunity for them to practice Chinese and meet Chinese people of all levels. Besides, they earn money for their country,” he said.

Pyongyang has many restaurants in Dandong, and many DPRK ministries such as the ministries of trade and security have their own restaurants there, Shan said.

Choe said the Korea Restaurant is of the same restaurant chain as Beijing Pyongyang Begonia Flower Restaurant, a famous luxury Korean restaurant said to be run by a DPRK merchant with a military background.

When asked whether she is the daughter of DPRK officials, Choe switched to speaking in Korean with a colleague before ending the conversation.

“The girls here mostly work for one and half years I’ll stay for about three years,” Choe said.

“Dandong is pretty and people here are quite nice. But I will go back to my country, Pyongyang is the most beautiful place in the world.”

If any readers in Dandong could help identify where these restaurants are, I would appreciate it.  I would like to mark them on Google Earth and Wikimapia.

Read the full article here:
DPRK waitress in China shares a day in her life
China Daily
Li Xiaokun and Wang Huazhong
8/14/2009

According to the Choson Ilbo:

A Chinese investment company developing a copper mine in North Korea with a North Korean company sanctioned by the UN Security Council has reportedly called an abrupt halt to the project.

An industry source in China said the investment firm sent a letter to NHI Shenyang Mining Machinery, the company it had commissioned to build facilities for the mine in Hyesan, North Korea, telling it to stop construction. An estimated 400,000 tons of copper are deposited there.

The Chinese firm had signed an agreement with (North) Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation (KOMID) [NKeconWatch: a.k.a. Korea Mining Development Corporation) to develop the mine in November 2006. But the North Korean partner was blacklisted by the UN Security Council after North Korea carried out its latest nuclear test.

The industry source said, “When Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang in June last year, he pledged full support for the development of the Hyesan copper mine so that it could become a model for investment by Chinese business in North Korea. This prompted NHI to hurry construction so that production could start in September this year.”

But he added the Chinese government apparently persuaded the investment firm to stop the project as Beijing takes part in the UN sanctions. “Otherwise, it’s unusual for a project to be stopped at this late stage,” he said. The investment firm reportedly gave NHI no reason for the cancellation.

Looking at Hyesan on Google Earth, this appears to be the only large-scale minig operation in Hyesan.

Read the full article below:
N.Korea Mining Project Buckles Under UN Sanctions
Choson Ilbo
7/31/2009

According to the Associated Press (via San Fancisco Examiner):

Chinese customs authorities have seized a stash of vanadium, a strategic metal used to strengthen steel, hidden in fruit boxes on a truck bound for North Korea, an official said Tuesday.

Vanadium has defense and nuclear applications — alloys with vanadium are used in missile casings — but it was not clear what the stash would be used for.

The seizure comes as the United States has been rallying international support for strict enforcement of a new U.N. resolution adopted to punish North Korea for its nuclear test on May 25. The sanctions seek to deprive the North of financing and material for its weapons program, and allows inspections of suspect cargo in ports and on the high seas.

The metal was found during a routine check of vehicles at the China-North Korea border on Monday, said a duty officer at the customs department of Dandong city in northeastern Liaoning province.

The officer, who would only give his surname, Chang, said the stash was worth about 200,000 yuan ($29,300).

He refused to provide further details, but the Dandong News Web site posted a photograph of border agents inspecting the seizure, contained in 68 bottles in cardboard boxes. The stash weighed 154 pounds (70 kilograms). The metal appeared to be in granular form.

Read the full story here:
China seizes steel-hardening metal hidden in truck bound for North Korea
Associated Press
Gillian Wong
7/28/2009

By Michael Rank

Direct flights are planned between Pyongyang and Shanghai, as well as charter flights from Chinese cities to the North Korean capital, a Chinese website reports.

It gives few details, but says the plans follow two visits by Shanghai tourism officials to Pyongyang in June.

At present the only direct flights are from Beijing and Shenyang. The report says there are hopes of attracting more tourists from the Shanghai region and mentions the possibility of charter flights from nearby Hangzhou.

It quotes the Shanghai officials who visited Pyongyang as finding the city “quiet” and “clean”. A separate report notes that because of “tension on the Korean peninsula” Shanghai residents haven’t been terribly interested in visiting North Korea, but this is now expected to change.

In loosely related news, a North Korean delegation in June visited the northern Chinese city of Tianjin, where they are reported to have toured the European Airbus factory where the A320 is being assembled and which opened last year. Rather surprising, given the high tech nature of such a plant… The first Airbus assembled in China was delivered the day after the North Korean visit. The North Korean delegation was led by the deputy chairman of the Central Inspection Bureau, Choi In-hak최인학.