Posts Tagged ‘Fuel’

Could Xi Jinping give Kim Jong-un fuel deliveries for his 35th birthday?

Wednesday, January 9th, 2019

By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

At the present time of writing, Kim Jong-un is still in China, though some signs suggest his train may have taken off back to North Korea. Kim spent is 35th birthday in Beijing, and visited a high-tech factory zone and other sites relevant to his economic and industrial policy focus.

But what did Xi Jinping give Kim for his 35th birthday?

If the past is any indicator, Xi’s present may have been sanctions relief in the form of increased fuel deliveries. The data suggests that this is precisely what happened after Kim’s third visit to China last summer, on June 19th of 2018. Consider the following graph, from a forthcoming working paper:

Average gasoline and diesel prices on markets in three North Korean cities, January–August 2018. Data source: Daily NK price index. Graph: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein/North Korean Economy Watch.

(If the image is too small, click it to see a larger size.)

Look closely at the dip in the blue line, in the right-hand side of the graph. This shows a significant drop — 50 percent! — in average gas prices on markets in three North Korean cities. This price drop came right at the time of Kim’s third visit.

Coincidence? Could be.

Market prices, however, tend to move for a reason, and there are no obvious factors that can explain this particular price drop. Other than Kim’s visit, that is. This is, of course, circumstantial speculation, but it makes a great deal of sense. China may have simply upped fuel deliveries to North Korea as a show of good faith prior to Kim’s visit, or after a direct request from Kim.

Should Kim have asked Xi for similar sanctions relief during this visit, it wouldn’t be all that surprising. It’s also worth noting that exchange rate for both US dollars and Chinese renminbi have gone up quite significantly on North Korea’s markets in the past few weeks, as I noted a couple of days ago, hinting that the economy may be under some distress. North Korea may not be under any general economic crisis as a result of the sanctions, but things surely aren’t looking great.

We should know when the next price update from Daily NK or other sources comes in, and just because Kim seems to have gotten sanctions relief at one point after a meeting with Xi doesn’t mean it’s a given for every single occasion. But it is reasonable to expect that Kim did get something from the trip. It did, after all, coincide with his birthday.

Share

Lack of fertilizers behind North Korea’s subdued harvest

Saturday, August 4th, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

History repeats itself, it seems, and shows how fragile North Korea’s more or less autarkic agriculture still is. Much has changed in the way agriculture is managed in the country, to be sure, but the bottleneck of lack of fuel translating into lack of fertilizer, remains. That’s one of the main reasons this harvest is expected to lag behind that of last year. It remains to be seen what actually happens, as actual harvests don’t always correspond with expectations. In any case, things don’t look great. Korea Times:

“With the record heat, food production in North Korea is expected to be reduced by 5-10 percent this year, said Nam Sung-wook, professor at Korea University’s Department of Korean Unification, Diplomacy and Security.

“In particular, a fall in July precipitation will have a negative impact on rice farming,” said Nam, whose study focuses on North Korean agriculture and economy.

However, he said that there was a more fundamental reason ― a lack of fertilizer, agricultural machinery and agricultural chemicals.

“North Korea’s repeated failure year after year to achieve its crop production goal shows that the country does not have the economic conditions to maximize productions,” Nam said. “For example, North Korea cannot produce chemical fertilizers because they are made out of refined crude oil. North Korea’s crude oil imports have been under sanctions since last year.”

He said North Korea’s media often promoted the development of compound fertilizers to increase agricultural production, but those compounds were organic, and there was a limit. Another problem was the way the socialist cooperative farms operated, with no incentives for workers.

“The development of the general economy and the introduction of private farms to give incentives are necessary to increase food production,” he said. “The Rodong Sinmun reports can also be seen as a signal to both South Korea and the U.S., to offer food aid, while also calling on residents to be patient.”

The workers’ party mouthpiece carried front page reports on Thursday and Friday for two consecutive days about the country’s struggle with drought.

Rodong Sinmun also emphasized that solving the food problem was a “pressing task,” as was securing an adequate supply of water.

Article source:

Lack of fertilizers adds to North Korea agriculture crisis
Jung Da-min
Korea Times
2018-08-04

Share