Posts Tagged ‘Corona’

North Korea and China strike agreement on border security

Tuesday, September 29th, 2020

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Since North Korea closed the border with China due to fears of Covid-19, there have been reports of Chinese citizens being shot at and, in at least one instance, killed by North Korean border guards. The North Korean government ordered border guards to shoot anyone from the Chinese side entering buffer zones it set up along the border.

All of this seems to have been done rather hastily and with little coordination with the Chinese side. Moreover, as is often the case with governance in North Korea, most has been done through relatively unclear decrees. The same factor could possibly explain the recent killing of a South Korean man apparently intending to defect to North Korea over the northern limit line (NLL), for which Kim Jong-un later expressed regret.

Now, Daily NK reports, North Korea and China have struck an agreement about border security in the age of Covid-19:

North Korea and China recently signed an agreement to help ease tensions along their border following shooting incidents involving North Korean border guards and Chinese nationals, Daily NK has learned.

According to a Chinese diplomatic source familiar with the agreement, the Chinese requested consultations with the North Koreans to “protect their citizens” and an agreement on the “working-level measures” came about at the North Korean embassy in China on Sept. 10.

Based on this agreement, China will raise customs duties three-fold on goods entering the country (from North Korea) if North Korean border guards “indiscriminately” and “recklessly” shoot and kill a Chinese national. The agreement also requires North Korea to compensate a shooting victim with RMB 1,200,000 (around USD 175,922).

On Sept. 11, the Ministry of State Security and General Staff Department ordered the North Korean border patrol to abide by details of the agreement. The order was accompanied by a directive telling the border patrol to “refrain” from shooting at people in China who cross into North Korean territory.

“From this past Spring until last month, North Korean soldiers shot and killed several Chinese near the border but North Korea failed to apologize properly, so the Chinese government proposed [the agreement] as a way to protect their citizens,” the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told Daily NK.

The source said that the closure of the border because of the COVID-19 pandemic means that North Korea is unable to import many of the things it needs from China. “That’s why North Korea had no choice but to acquiesce to China’s demands,” he added.

CHANGING TACTICS ON THE BORDER

Another source in China who spoke to Daily NK on condition of anonymity recently reported on signs that North Korean border guards seem to be taking a different approach to Chinese who cross the border.

The source said that two Chinese men had brought their cow down to the Yalu River to drink water near Changbai, Jilin Province, on Sept. 21. When the men and the cow moved toward the line demarcating the Chinese border with Yanggang Province, North Korean border guards started to approach them.

Given that the North Korean border patrol had shot and killed a Chinese smuggler in May, the two men were reportedly “tense” because they feared they may be harmed by the border guards.

Despite their fears, the North Korean border guards just threw rocks at the two men while yelling at them to return to Chinese territory; the men took their cow and left the area without incident.

(Full article and source: Jang Seul Gi, “N. Korea and China recently signed agreement aimed at easing border tensions,” Daily NK, September 25th, 2020.)

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Update on North Korea and Covid19: June 7th, 2020

Sunday, June 7th, 2020

By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

A little over a week ago, I wrote an essay for Foreign Policy Research Institute about Covid-19 in North Korea. The long-term challenge of Covid-19, combined with sanctions, of course poses a major economic challenge for North Korea. However, as I attempt to lay out, there’s another issue. Much of Kim Jong-un’s legitimacy and policy focus has been tied up with economic construction and raising the people’s living standard. That looks like an increasingly distant prospect. With “just” sanctions, trade could have resumed and even expanded depending on the political moods in Beijing, and to a lesser extent, Moscow. Now with Covid-19, considerations are totally different:

Over the past few months, however, the tone of state rhetoric has changed. While before it breathed optimism, North Korean state propaganda now speaks much more—and more realistically—about problems and obstacles to economic development and about the old themes of autarky and economic self-reliance. For the time being, any plans to lift North Korea to a higher plane of economic development have largely been put on hold.

What does this mean politically for Kim Jong-un, who staked much of his credibility on delivering economic progress? The truth is that no one really knows. On the one hand, North Korea is perhaps the harshest dictatorship in the world, and the regime crushes even the slightest hint of dissent with an uncompromising iron fist. Over 100,000 people are estimated to be imprisoned in labor camps, many for crimes of political nature (or “speaking mistakes” as the Korean term goes), some for life. Kim Jong-un was in fact absent not just for one period of several weeks—the initial one that drew so much international attention—but for two different periods, and only appeared in North Korean media four times in all of April and May. Kim may be recovering from a medical procedure, but his absence may also be caused by caution against COVID-19. He may simply not want to conduct public visits or meeting sessions due to the risk of infection. In a system where so much power is centered around one single leader, his health is a top priority for national security in the eyes of the state, and will always be strongly guarded.

On the other hand, no dictatorship can truly function sustainably without any sense of at least tacit support from part of the population, such as the privileged, political core class. Kim has catered to this class in North Korea by overseeing their access to an essentially Western upper-middle class lifestyle in many respects, such as luxury department stores and a water park. The provinces have seen little of this development, and the massive and growing cleavage between the capital city and everywhere else is another long-term problem for the regime. Even so, life in the countryside has improved overall, albeit more marginally, thanks to the growth of the market system.

What happens when, over the course of a longer period of time, things not only cease to improve, but become markedly more difficult? The general public may heed the state’s call to get ready for some difficult times ahead for a while, but in the longer run, it may lead to widespread discontent. What that will mean for the North Korean regime, which has already survived challenges that seemed impossible, only time will tell.

(Full article here.)

In North Korea, it seems the regime is letting up on some of the strongest restrictions. For example, it will – and this says a great deal about the country’s complex economic system, where boundaries between illegal and legal trade are often unclear – “permit” smuggling to a greater extent:

North Korean authorities have decided to permit smuggling activities across some portions of the Sino-North Korean border from mid-June on the condition that smugglers pay foreign currency to purchase trade permits, Daily NK has learned.

According to a Daily NK source in North Korea on May 29, North Korea decided to allow traders in Sinuiju, Ryongchon, Uiju and Nampo Special City to conduct their activities from June 15. Traders who fall within the purview of the new measure include those working for trade companies affiliated with the military, Cabinet and other government agencies along with individual smugglers registered with companies.

WAKU BACK TO YOU

Traders must fulfill two conditions to restart their activities: 1) pay for their trade license (waku) in foreign currency; and, 2) in addition to their own imports, import items designated by the state and donate half of these imports to the government.

Even companies or individuals that already possess a waku must buy new permits with foreign currency because the permitted import lists on their trade permits must be changed to accommodate the import needs of the state.

North Korean authorities have reportedly ordered smugglers to include rice, flour, oil (cooking oil), sugar, MSG and other foods on their list of imports. Even traders who previously specialized in electric appliances or clothes must now include food items in their imports to be allowed to begin trading again.

The inclusion of these food items is likely the result of a measure handed down by the country’s Central Committee and Cabinet on Apr. 17 that restricted all “unnecessary” imports until the end of the year.

Following the announcement of the import restrictions, the prices of MSG, soybean oil and flour skyrocketed; there now appears to be great discontent among North Koreans about the scarcity of certain food products and the generally higher prices of food items. Daily NK’s source said that the addition of these food items to import lists is a direct result of this discontent.

North Korean officials have also announced that smugglers who hand over 70% of the food products – more than just the minimum of 50% – they import to the state will be given so-called “patriotic donation certificates.”

All in the all, the latest measure to open up smuggling across the border is aimed at both acquiring foreign currency (through the sale of trade permits) and stabilizing market prices by importing food items in demand.

UNEQUAL FOOTING

The decision to open up smuggling in certain areas is likely due to difficulties in controlling smuggling activities in places like Ryanggang Province and North Hamgyong Province.

Smugglers in those regions are reportedly faced with the significant burden of having to move their operations to North Pyongan Province or Nampo.

Moreover, they have to submit a “letter of intent” to a North Korean agency saying they will be importing items from a particular Chinese trader and the existence of these traders in China must be confirmed by the North Korean embassy in China. These traders also have to compete with traders already based in North Pyongan Province and develop trading routes from scratch.

Ryanggang Province-based traders have mixed opinions on the move to open up smuggling across the border. Some believe that they need to take the opportunity to start trade again, while others think they should wait until the authorities officially permit smuggling across the border in the province.

(Source: Jang Seul Gi, “N. Korea to permit smuggling over parts of Sino-NK border,” Daily NK, 1/6/2020.)

Meanwhile, schools are now open, with video clips to show it:

Schools in North Korea were supposed to start new semesters in early April, but the vacation period was extended repeatedly due to the coronavirus pandemic, though some colleges and high schools were allowed to open in mid-April.

In the footage, students were seen wearing masks, as were parents and teachers. Masks stayed on inside classrooms.

The resumption of schools might suggest concerns over the coronavirus have recently eased in North Korea or it could be aimed at projecting Pyongyang’s the country’s ability to contain the virus.

(Source: “N. Korean schools reopen during pandemic,” Yonhap, 3/6/2020.)

Meanwhile, news continue to come out of the country about deaths from symptoms similar to Covid-19, though of course, everything remains unconfirmed:

Dozens of people in two South Pyongan Province hospitals recently died after suffering symptoms similar to those caused by COVID-19 infections, Daily NK has learned.“The dozens of people who died recently were all patients at a facility caring for tuberculosis patients and the hepatitis care center at the Pyongsong City Hospital,” a source in South Pyongan Province told Daily NK on June 4.

The Pyongsong City Tuberculosis Care Center and the Hepatitis Care Center at the Pyongsong City Hospital are both focused on treating patients with infectious diseases. Patients in these facilities are typically discharged only after receiving permission from their doctors.

The patients who died were all being hospitalized for preexisting conditions, but expired while receiving intensive care after they began showing signs of COVID-19 infections.

Both hospitals quickly blamed tuberculosis or hepatitis for the deaths and hospital workers were ordered to stay silent about the dead patients, the source said.

The sudden spike in deaths led some patients in the hospitals to run away from the facilities out of fear of COVID-19.

“Groups of patients left the hospitals out of fear that they could die if they stayed there any longer,” the source told Daily NK, adding, “Local authorities along with hospital managers were alarmed by this.”

Local and hospital authorities were reportedly concerned that the runaway patients might infect broader society with their diseases.

Local rumors about the runaway patients reportedly focused on the reaction of the authorities, which suggested that officials are still concerned about COVID-19.

Late last month, public health authorities in South Pyongan Province reportedly conducted a province-wide survey of people who showed symptoms similar to those caused by COVID-19 infections.

According to the source, the survey found that there are around 1,500 people quarantined either at home or at medical facilities in the province after complaining of high fevers, coughing, difficulty breathing, and other symptoms. Most of them are self-quarantining at home, while only a few with severe symptoms are in medical facilities.

(Source: Jang Seul Gi, “Source: Dozens recently died at two Pyongsong hospitals,” Daily NK, 5/6/2020.)

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The wild fluctuations of North Korean exchange rates

Wednesday, May 20th, 2020

By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

New market prices for North Korea came out recently, and lots is happening. Rice prices are down significantly, but compared to last year, the levels so far are quite normal. We should expect them to rise as the country goes further into the lean season between May and September (roughly). Foreign exchange rates, perhaps most interestingly, are fluctuating quite significantly, and the dollar especially so. The USD took a dive late last month, but it’s been fluctuating quite significantly before that as well, which would be more visible if not for the recent dive in the graph:

KPW-USD rates in three North Korean cities. Data source: Daily NK.

It seems that uncertainty itself is one of the main reasons. One in-country source told Daily NK:

“Even ordinary sellers who have long conducted relatively stable transactions in foreign currency are now afraid of losses because of dramatic fluctuations in the exchange rate,” the source told Daily NK. “Recently, the changes have been so frenzied that it’s not exaggerating to say that the prices in the afternoon will be different from the prices in the morning.”

“Wholesalers at the Pyongsong Market whose main patrons are other wholesalers throughout the country are complaining about the impact of the fluctuations in the exchange rate,” continued the source. “There are such major changes in the exchange rate between when wholesalers receive goods and then pass them along to retailers that uncertainty prevails.”

Citing exchange rate fluctuations of around KPW 1,000 in the past, some people reportedly do not believe that the fluctuations are a big deal. Yet, “most people think that we can’t sit idly by because the prices of imported goods are [also] increasing,” the source said.

“The damage done to businesses due to the exchange rate [fluctuations] and the increase in commodity prices are making things difficult for those who deal with transactions in foreign currency,” he added.

(Source: Kang Mi Jin, “Fluctuating exchange rates cause headaches for N. Korea’s business people,” Daily NK, 19/7/2020.)

It’s not just the government’s Covid19-measures themselves, such as the border closure, that impact the exchange rate. As noted on this website yesterday, the state is taking coercive actions of various forms to bring in funds, such as reportedly banning the use of foreign currency for domestic transactions in the hope that people will see no choice but to exchange their foreign money for domestic, bringing in much needed foreign exchange to the state.

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What to make of the panic buying in Pyongyang and beyond

Sunday, May 10th, 2020

By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

There’s been a few reports over the past few weeks about panic buying in Pyongyang, particularly of imported goods. The foremost reason appears to be the government’s restrictions of imports, aside from essential goods (whatever these are). A quick thought:

On the one hand, on a closer reading beyond the term “panic buying”, it’s apparent that we aren’t really talking about fundamental, daily necessities for the most part, but about imported items such as batteries and certain vegetables. When we monitor economic developments for social stability, such analyses tend to focus on items like rice and, at least in countries other than North Korea, fuel, and not least the stability of the currency. So it may not matter all that much if people in a northern province cannot buy lighters imported from China, or if Pyongyangites can’t buy imported pepper and other non-staple goods. (As you will see in one of the articles below, Daily NK has not heard reports of panic buying in Hyesan at all.)

At the same time, however, these imported goods are quite essential in the everyday lives of many people. We don’t know how much of imported goods the average person consumes, and I suspect it’d differ greatly between provinces. Since at least a significant proportion of the population consumes imported goods on a regular basis, these difficulties in acquiring items imported from China would in many cases cause great annoyance and, in others, disrupt production processes of firms and industries, although some exceptions are granted for “essential” items. Who determines what’s essential is likely hinges on political and economic clout, and it certainly won’t be the mom-and-pop-shops of the backstreet markets.

I’ve gathered a few related articles here. AP wrote about the topic on May 7th, 2020, with intelligence sources in Seoul confirming the news:

The NIS said it cannot rule out a virus outbreak in North Korea because traffic along the China-North Korea border was active before the North closed crossings in January to try to stop the spread of the virus, according to the lawmaker.

The NIS declined to confirm Kim’s comments in line with its practice of not commenting on information it provides to lawmakers. Kim did not discuss how the NIS obtained its information.

Last Friday, Kim Jong Un ended his 20-day public absence when he appeared at a ceremony marking the completion of a fertilizer factory near Pyongyang. His time away triggered rumors about his health and worries about the future of his country.

The NIS repeated a South Korean government assessment that Kim remained in charge of state affairs even during his absence. His visit to the factory was aimed at showing his resolve to address public livelihood problems and inject people with confidence, Kim Byung Kee cited the NIS as saying.

The NIS said the virus pandemic is hurting North Korea’s economy, mainly because of the border closure with China, its biggest trading partner and aid provider. China accounts for about 90% of North Korea’s external trade flow.

The trade volume between North Korea and China in the first quarter of this year was $230 million, a 55% decline from the same period last year. In March, the bilateral trade volume suffered a 91% drop, the NIS was quoted as saying.

This led to the prices of imported foodstuffs such as sugar and seasonings skyrocketing, Kim Byung Kee quoted the spy agency as saying. He said the NIS also told lawmakers that residents in Pyongyang, the capital, recently rushed to department stores and other shops to stock up on daily necessities and waited in long lines.

The NIS said prices in North Korea “are being stabilized a little bit” after authorities clamped down on people cornering the market, Kim said in a televised briefing.

(Source: “Seoul reports panic buying in N. Korea amid economic woes,” AP/Mainichi, May 7, 2020.)

NK News was one of the first outlets to cover the topic, in an article on April 22nd:

“Panic buying” sprees have been spotted taking place in some of Pyongyang’s stores and groceries since Monday, multiple informed sources told NK News, resulting in increasingly empty shelves and a growing shortage of key staples.

It’s unclear what’s led to the sudden surge in demand, with one source describing empty shelves and a sudden absence of staples like vegetables, flour, and sugar.

Locals have been buying “whatever is there,” one expat said, saying that “you can hardly get in” to some stores.

Both the expat and another person in Pyongyang said the surge was particularly notable on Wednesday.

Another source said large groups of locals were seen buying big amounts of mostly-imported products in some grocery stores, resulting in abrupt shortages.

(Source: Chad O’Carroll, “North Koreans “panic buying” at Pyongyang shops, sources say,” NK News, April 22nd, 2020.)

Daily NK, of course, has reported extensively on the topic, from both Pyongyang and the provinces. Imported goods are not only consumed in Pyongyang:

“The prices of Chinese goods have risen sharply in markets across the province, including the Yonbong and Wuiyon markets in Hyesan,” a Ryanggang Province-based source told Daily NK on Apr. 28.

According to the source, the price surge has mainly affected Chinese products, including daily necessities such as sugar, flour, and other cooking products.

For example, the price of Chinese seasoning has increased fourfold to a KPW 40,000 (around USD 6). Flour, rice and other grain prices have also increased. Two weeks ago, imported Chinese rice was being sold at KPW 4,400 per kilogram but is now being sold at KPW 5,500.

The price hikes have not just affected food. Chinese cigarettes have also increased in price: a box of Chinese-made Chang Baishan cigarette packs, for example, which used to cost KPW 12,000, is now KPW 17,000.

“Even Chinese lighters, which usually cost around KPW 700, have seen a price hike of nearly threefold and now cost KPW 2,000,” the Hyesan-based source added.

The main reason for these price surges is the halt in Sino-North Korean trade following the closure of the North Korean-Chinese border in late January. The effects of the steep fall in Sino-North Korean trade were made clear in recent data published by China’s General Administration of Customs. According to this data, Chinese-North Korean trade in March dropped by 91.3% compared to the same period last year to just USD 18.64 million.

“Just two weeks ago merchants were feeling more optimistic given the improved situation in China. Now, they’ve lowered their expectations quite a bit,” the Hyesan-based source told Daily NK, adding, “Prices are rising because business people are intentionally sitting on their stocks with the hope that prices will increase even more.”

[…]

Meanwhile, Daily NK is unaware of any reports of panic buying in Hyesan [emphasis added].

(Source: Kang Mi Jin, “Ryanggang Province witnesses price spikes,” Daily NK, April 30th, 2020.)

And, more recently, a report from Pyongyang:

“There are a lot of ordinary stores that have closed or are unable to sell anything because they have no stock left,” a Pyongyang-based source told Daily NK on Apr. 30. “Right now 100 grams of imported pepper costs KPW 40,000, 450 to 500 grams of MSG costs KPW 48,000 and sugar can’t be found at all.”

PRICE SPIKES

The prices of imported food items nearly doubled after Apr. 17, when the North Korean government announced restrictions on imported goods deemed “unnecessary” for the North Korean economy. Prices began to rise rapidly once more before the publishing of this article in Korean on May 1.

According to Daily NK’s Pyongyang source, the price of imported pepper was just KPW 8,000 per 100 grams before the announcement, but doubled to KPW 16,000 after the decision was released. Now, the price has reportedly risen to KPW 40,000.

“The price of watch batteries and other small batteries for common household appliances like remote controllers for TVs have tripled or quadrupled,” the source further reported. “The price of batteries had remained stable even after the announcement, but several days ago it started to rise suddenly. The spike is probably because so many people began hoarding them.”

Although the price of batteries has risen to an unprecedented degree, Pyongyang residents reportedly continue to buy them in bulk, in boxes of 50, and as much as 10 boxes at a time. The hoarding is likely due to concerns that the price will only continue to rise and that soon there may not be any batteries left to buy.

“Many of the electronics stores throughout the city have closed down,” the source said, adding, “Stores that still have stock have closed perhaps because of rumors that Chinese products will no longer enter the country.”

In short, the source’s report suggests that state-run electronics stores, which command 20% of the market, have no stock left, while privately-run stores that take up the remaining 80% of the market have closed up despite still having stock on hand.

Based on the source’s report, owners of privately-run stores may have closed down their shops with the intent to sell their goods at prices even higher than they are now. The owners are likely under the belief that the recent import restrictions announcement means that various electronics accessories will no longer enter the country from China for some time.

(Source: Ha Yoon Ah, “Pyongyangites continue to hoard as prices keep rising,” Daily NK, May 4th, 2020.)

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North Korean economy updates, April 21st, 2020: schools opening, market prices down

Tuesday, April 21st, 2020

By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Here’s a brief compilation of some recent developments in the North Korean economy, mainly relating to the COVID19-situation, as most economic developments in the world are at the moment.

In recent reports, rice prices are down on markets, and quite significantly so. The average market price declined by around 19 percent between March 20th and 28th. Obviously, there is a reporting time lag here, but that can’t be avoided. Rimjingang’s latest reported figures (much earlier) are different but tend in the same direction.

Gasoline prices remained almost entirely stabile over the same period, climbing by 0.3 percent. The entirety of the price increase happened in Pyongyang, interestingly enough. As is generally the case, prices in Sinuiju are significantly lower than in the rest of the country, likely due to its proximity to China and North Korea’s main refinery near the border.

At the same time, we shouldn’t be too quick to assume this trend toward price stability will continue. There are currently no signs that border traffic will resume anytime soon, and this is very troubling not least because items such as fertilizers are in dire need for the approaching planting season (as noted by both NCNK and Rimjingang). While the latter reports that China is now refusing to start trade back up again in fear of COVID19 cases entering the country, Daily NK reports that Chinese trucks are crossing the bridge from Sinuiju, presumably after offloading goods in North Korea. North Korea is constructing a fertilizer factory in Suncheon, but reportedly struggling for construction parts and equipment.

This week, North Korea re-opened some schools and universities, after the extended winter break implemented as a measure against the spread of COVID19. Here is a rather chipper and, in its own way, very interesting clip from what is presumably a twitter account run by the North Korean government.

Finally, in some non-COVID-news, the re-forestation campaign apparently continues in the country. Rodong Sinmun ran an article on Tuesday April 21st about sapling research at Kanggye University. (Here is a link though I’m not sure it works.) And Rodong claims that coal production in one of the country’s mines is increasing due to better inefficiency. We have no way of telling whether this is true, but North Korean media touting coal production given the way things currently stand is interesting. Perhaps a tacit way of acknowledging, and touting, what the latest UN Panel of Experts report claimed about the significant amounts of coal exported by North Korea despite the sanctions in place to prevent it from doing so.

 

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Politburo meets, but SPA postponed (till following Sunday)

Sunday, April 12th, 2020

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

The SPA was expected to meet this past Friday. It didn’t. (Update 13/4/: it instead met on the following Sunday.) Instead, the politburo held a meeting to discuss measures the SPA would be adopting. There were scant but clear references to economic affairs (highlighted below), though the KCNA report is very vague. NK News suggests the SPA may instead convene Monday.

It adopted the joint resolution of the Central Committee of the WPK, the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and the Cabinet of the DPRK “On more thoroughly taking national measures for protecting the life and safety of our people from the worldwide epidemic disease”.

The joint resolution detailed the goals of continuously intensifying the nationwide emergency anti-epidemic services and pushing ahead with the economic construction, increasing national defence capability and stabilizing the people’s livelihood this year, and indicated the tasks facing every field and every unit including Party and government organs and working people’s organizations and armed forces organs and ways of carrying them out.

It studied and approved “On the execution of the state budget for Juche 108 (2019) and the state budget for Juche 109 (2020)”, the second agenda which is to be presented to the Third Session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly.

(Source: Political Bureau of C.C., WPK Meets under Guidance of Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, Korean Central News Agency,” 12/4/2020.)

Update 13/4/2020: the SPA was held on Sunday instead. KCNA:

The third Session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) was held at the Mansudae Assembly Hall on Sunday.

The SPA deputies attended the session.

Seen on the platform were Choe Ryong Hae, member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), first vice-chairman of the State Affairs Commission (SAC) of the DPRK and president of the Presidium of the SPA, and Pak Pong Ju, member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee, vice-chairman of the SAC of the DPRK and vice-chairman of the WPK Central Committee.

Also seen there was Kim Jae Ryong, member of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee, member of the SAC of the DPRK and premier of the Cabinet.

The platform was also taken by Ri Il Hwan, Choe Hwi, Ri Pyong Chol, Kim Tok Hun, Kim Yong Chol and members of the SAC of the DPRK and the Presidium of the SPA.

The chairman and vice-chairpersons of the SPA took their seats.

The opening address was made by Chairman Pak Thae Song.

The agenda items of the Third Session of the 14th SPA of the DPRK were decided at the session:

1. On adoption of the law of the DPRK on recycling resources

2. On adoption of the law of the DPRK on tele-education

3. On adoption of the law of the DPRK on providing living conditions for discharged officers

4. On the work of the Cabinet of the DPRK for Juche 108 (2019) and its tasks of Juche 109 (2020)

5. On implementation of the state budget for Juche 108 (2019) and the state budget for Juche 109 (2020).

6. Organizational matter.

The first, second and third agenda items were discussed at the session.

Deputy Thae Hyong Chol, vice-president of the Presidium of the SPA, made a report on the three agenda items.

He referred to the importance and significance of the laws to be discussed and adopted at the session, and explained the chapters of the laws.

He laid the adoption of the three laws before the SPA.

Ordinance of the SPA of the DPRK “On adoption of the law of the DPRK on recycling resources “, “On adoption of the law of the DPRK on tele-education” and “On adoption of the law of the DPRK on providing living conditions for discharged officers” were adopted with unanimous approbation at the session.

There was a discussion on the basis of an in-depth study of the reports on the fourth and the fifth agenda items.

The speakers said that the work of the Cabinet and the execution of the state budget for last year were correctly summed up, and that the tasks of the Cabinet for this year were clearly set and the state budget was properly worked out in the direction of implementing the decisions adopted at the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the WPK and the joint resolution adopted at the Meeting of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee. They voiced full support and approval.

In their speeches they analyzed and reviewed the successes, experience, mistakes and lessons in the work of their fields and units last year and referred to the methods of opening a broad avenue to the socialist construction and propping up the self-supporting economic power.

There adopted decision of the SPA of the DPRK “Report on the work of the Cabinet of the DPRK and on approving the implementation of the state budget for Juche 108 (2019)” and ordinance of the SPA of the DPRK “On state budget of the DPRK for Juche 109 (2020)”.

The session discussed the sixth agenda item.

At the request of Deputy Choe Ryong Hae, first vice-chairman of the SAC and president of the Presidium of the SPA upon authorization of the Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK, Deputy Choe Pu Il and Deputy No Kwang Chol were recalled from the membership of the SAC.

Also recalled were Ri Su Yong, Thae Jong Su and Ri Yong Ho.

Deputies Ri Pyong Chol, Kim Hyong Jun, Kim Jong Gwan, Ri Son Gwon and Kim Jong Ho were by-elected as members of the SAC.

Upon authorization of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee, Deputy Ko Kil Son was by-elected as the secretary general of the Presidium of the SPA and Deputy Kim Yong Hwan as a member of the Presidium of the SPA.

Members of the Cabinet were newly appointed.

Upon authorization of the WPK Central Committee, Deputy Yang Sung Ho was appointed as vice-premier, Deputy Kim Chol Su as minister of Natural Resources Development, Kim Jong Nam as minister of Machine-building Industry, and Ri Song Hak as minister of Light Industry.

Chairmen of the Subcommittees of the SPA were recalled and by-elected.

Deputy Kim Jong Ho was by-elected as chairman of the Legislation Committee of the SPA, Deputy Kim Tok Hun as chairman of the Budget Committee and Deputy Kim Hyong Jun as chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee.

Chairman Pak Thae Song made a closing address.

(Source: “Third Session of 14th SPA of DPRK Held,” Korean Central News Agency, 13/4/2020.)

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North Korean public health expert claims zero coronavirus cases

Thursday, April 2nd, 2020

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

In an interview with Kyodo earlier this year:

Pak Myong Su, president of North Korea’s State Hygienic Control Board, made the remark in an interview with Kyodo News and other foreign media outlets.

“If such a virus spreads in our country with a small population and a small territory, a serious disaster could not be avoided, in which thousands or tens of thousands of people are deprived of their lives,” Pak said in Pyongyang.

In mid-March, Gen. Robert Abrams, the commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, said at a press conference that North Korea “is a closed-off nation, so we can’t say emphatically that they have cases, but we’re fairly certain they do.”

South Korean media have also reported that many North Koreans have died from the pneumonia-causing virus currently sweeping the world.

Late last month, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi told reporters in Tokyo, “If there is no infected person in North Korea, which is contiguous with China and South Korea, it is extremely miraculous.”

Pak stressed that North Korea has stepped up measures to prevent a coronavirus outbreak, including cutting off traffic to and from China and Russia since earlier this year.

He added that citizens have been urged by the country’s health authorities to wear masks when they go outside.

(Source: “N. Korea has no infected people with new coronavirus: expert,” Mainichi/Kyodo, April 2nd, 2020.)

I’ve written here about why this is extremely unlikely to be true, bordering on the impossible.

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April 1st, 2020: Latest market prices in North Korea

Wednesday, April 1st, 2020

By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

In the past few days, Daily NK updated their market price index. The latest price data was sourced on March 20th, but posted at least a couple of weeks later. A few quick observations:

In general, rice prices continue to decline, although not by very much. The average rice price went down by 1.4 percent from the previous price observation, on March 7th. This is hardly enough to be truly significant. As I wrote on 38North recently, the price drop may not be caused by an increase in supply only, but also by increasing enforcement of price controls by the government.

Foreign exchange rates have appreciate significantly since before the coronavirus border closure, and continue to climb still. The RMB has, interestingly, appreciate much more than the US dollar. The dollar climbed by 1.4 percent in the last price observation compared with late December last year, while the RMB went up by almost ten percent during the same time period. Between March 7th and March 20th, the USD appreciate by 0.55 percent, and the RMB by 1.2 percent. North Korea thereby goes counter to the international trend, where the dollar has appreciated significantly over the RMB. This makes sense, however, since the border closure has cut the supply of Chinese goods drastically, thereby raising their price. A significant share of trade in these goods occurs in RMB, and it is only logical that the price would go up.

More on this during the weeks to come…

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Fertilizer shortages in North Korea due to border lockdown

Wednesday, April 1st, 2020

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Reports Daily NK:

North Korea’s farms in the country’s breadbasket are suffering from a lack of fertilizer and other agricultural supplies amid the shutdown of the Sino-North Korean border, Daily NK sources have reported.

“Farms are lacking agricultural supplies throughout the province even as we are heading into the planting season,” a North Hwanghae Province-based source reported on Mar. 31.

North Korean farms typically focus on preparing for the year’s farming during January to March, acquiring needed fertilizer, pesticides and other supplies.

The country’s agricultural sector, however, relies on imports of agricultural supplies and typically trading companies are putting on all their efforts into acquiring supplies during this period.

With the closure of the Sino-North Korean border and a general halt in trade and smuggling across the border, however, farms are not getting the supplies they need this year.

“North Korean authorities are telling farms to figure out things themselves, even telling them to make their own electricity,” the source said. “Farmers are upset.”

North Korean officials have moved to increase supplies of fertilizer to farms by ordering fertilizer factories throughout the country to increase their production beyond this year’s original production quotas.

“Factory managers are full of anxiety because they have to create massive amounts of fertilizer – more than they are accustomed to,” the source noted.

North Korean cities and counties typically have their own fertilizer factories. Most of these factories, however, are small-scale and are unable to produce enough to supply all the farms in their respective areas.

(Source: Ha Yoon Ah, “N. Korea’s farms face shortages of fertilizer and other supplies,” Daily NK, April 1st, 2020.)

More than immediate rice prices rising, this sort of news is perhaps the most concerning in the long run, and we’ll only begin to see the effects in a few months.

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North Korean ships not stopping in Chinese ports

Sunday, March 29th, 2020

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

The New York Times reports that North Korean ships that would usually transport goods to Chinese ports are now idle in Nampo:

The Royal United Services Institute satellite analysis shows that on March 3, 139 ships were idled in the Nampo area, which includes the anchorage and several ports, up from 50 ships a month earlier.

The fleet includes vessels previously implicated in sanctions evasion operations, which are often tracked through satellite imagery and aerial or ground surveillance by other states, independent research groups and the United Nations.

The institute’s analysis said the idled ships included some of the “most active and scrutinized oil tankers” used for the illicit import of refined petroleum products such as fuel. For example, the oil tanker New Regent, which had been spotted making unreported deliveries as recently as January 2020, and twice in 2019, according to the United Nations, was seen in Nampo in multiple satellite images. Other ships, too, have been floating unused for weeks, according to satellite imagery provided by Planet Labs, an earth-imaging company in San Francisco, and Maxar Technologies Inc., a space technology company in Westminster, Colo.

(Source: Christopher Koettl, “Coronavirus Is Idling North Korea’s Ships, Achieving What Sanctions Did Not,” New York Times, March 26, 2020.)

As the article points out, coronavirus really is doing what sanctions never fully could. It seems that the only fully confirmed mode of goods transportation between North Korea and China right now are trains (judging by the Rodong pictures of Corona prevention activities), and we don’t know how often they run.

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