North Korea, China Will Start $10 Billion Fund, Yonhap Reports

November 13th, 2007

Bloomberg
Bomi Lim
11/13/2007

North Korea’s Daepung Investment Group will set up a $10 billion fund with China Development Bank to help Chinese firms operating in North Korea, Yonhap News reported, citing the company’s vice president.

The fund will be used to help Chinese companies build roads, railways and ports in North Korea, Daepung Vice President Bae Kyeong Hwan was quoted as saying. Bae didn’t say how much each country will contribute the fund.

Daepung also plans to set up a bank to attract investment from overseas, the report said.

China is North Korea’s biggest trading partner and an important provider of food and fuel. North Korea is isolated from most of the rest of the world and has received virtually no foreign investment.

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Posted in Automobiles, Banking, China, Economic reform, Finance, Foreign direct investment, International trade, Korea Taepung International Investment Group (Daepung Investment Group), Railways, Sea shipping, Transportation | Comments Closed

N. Korea upbeat about economic future as relations with U.S. thaw

November 13th, 2007

Yonhap
11/13/2007

North Korea Tuesday expressed confidence in the recovery of its ailing economy devastated by years of mismanagement, economic embargoes and floods as multilateral talks on the North’s nuclear disarmament make progress.

“The circumstances for our revolution are changing in a very favorable way,” Rodong Sinmun, the organ of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party, said in an editorial. “The international prestige of the country is rising extraordinarily, and our economy is vigorously bouncing back with enormous energy.”

Pyongyang’s upbeat mood comes as Washington is moving to take the communist country off its list of terrorism-sponsoring countries and to lift its trading ban on condition that the North completes the disablement of its nuclear facilities and declares its nuclear programs by the end of the year under an agreement signed in early October.

North Korea started disabling its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang, in early November.

In return for its actions, North Korea will receive 1 million tons of energy assistance from the other parties of the deal, including South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia.

The North has already received 100,000 tons of heavy fuel oil from South Korea and China. The end of the application of the U.S. Trading with the Enemy Act to the North will allow the communist state to participate in international economic activities.

“Only when we thoroughly achieve the combatant work in front of us this year, can we make a breakthrough for a new march toward the construction of economic power and decisively engage in next year’s combat,” the newspaper said.

Recent reports have painted a bleak picture of the North Korean economy. According to figures released by South Korea’s Bank of Korea, the North’s economy probably shrank 1.1 percent in 2006 compared to a year earlier because of the weakness of its agricultural and construction sectors. The decease in North Korea’s gross domestic product was a reversal of the 3.8 percent expansion in 2005 and the 6.2 percent rise in 1999.

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Posted in Economic reform, Foreign direct investment, GDP statistics, International Aid, Nuclear | Comments Closed

Civilians along the North Korea-Chinese Border Prefer Small-Size TVs?

November 13th, 2007

Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
11/13/2007

Recent demand for small-sized TVs has been rapidly increasing in North Korea’s border regions, resulting in a huge price increases.

According to an inside North Korean source, the price of 12-inch (dubbed “chok” in North Korea) and 14-inch TVs, compared with prices this time last year, increased by 50 thousand to 100 thousand won (approx. USD15-30). Despite the increase, these small TVs are selling out, resulting in a supply shortage in stores located throughout the border regions.

Most 12-inch black and white TVs are Chinese-made. These TVs, which could have been purchased for a mere 150,000 won (approx. USD46) up until the end of last year, have recently sold for as much as 250,000 won.

The reason for the increase in the border region is that the state has strengthened inspections in these areas of those who watch Chinese TVs. The recent preference for small-size TVs comes from the fact that they are relatively easy to conceal.

A majority of border region civilians from North Pyongan to North Hamkyung Province can receive Chinese TV signals, thanks to the close distance. Among the channels able to be viewed is once broadcasted via Yanbian TV and South Korea’s China TV (www.openchina21.com). In accordance with a 2004 agreement between these two companies to promote broadcasting and cultural exchange, diverse South Korean dramas and movies as well as advertisements of South Korean products can be viewed.

The North Korean government collected remote controls to prevent the viewing of Chinese TV along the border region and implemented measures such as sealing the channels. Throughout the China-North Korea border region, inspections conducted by the No. 27 Bureau (under the Central Communications Office) are still very much underway.

The source said, “No. 27 Bureau agents come knocking at the door and turn on the TV at once to verify which channels have been viewed. Further, they inspect the state of sealed channels; if the seal has been damaged, the TV is confiscated.” When inspections take place, 30~50 sets are taken at a time, and in order to retrieve them, several thousand won in bribes is needed.”

However, in cases where these methods have failed to prevent the viewing of Chinese TV, technicians have entered homes and intercepted the circuits inside the TV, re-sealing the attached apparatus with high-strength adhesives. By doing so, the channels are forcibly fixed on Chosun Central TV broadcasting.

When the government carried out such invasive measures, the civilians put up a strong resistance, “Are they planning to just break TVs?” However, the government enforced the regulation of internal equipment, even when faced with civil rebellion.

The source said, “The apparatus inside televisions have been fixed so that people cannot watch Chinese TV channels, and inspections have been occurring randomly, so people have been watching and hiding small-size TVs in their homes.” This activity is reflected in the price increase.

One defector who has experience in selling used TVs in Rajin in North Hamkyung Province said, “Small-size TVs by which people could watch South Korean broadcasting were originally in high demand in South Pyongan, Kangwondo and South Hwanghae.” He said, “Since they cannot pass through customs, they are usually smuggled into and sold on the black market.”

The People’s Safety Agency handed down a decree stating that, “Those who pose a threat to the state and social system will be severely punished. Get rid of all kinds of places offering karaoke, movies, film subscriptions, PCs, and games.” It further emphasized the National Security Agency’s tightening of cell phone regulations along the border region.

Since last year, severe regulation of illegal films (foreign and South Korean DVDs and VCDs) has continually been enforced. Since this year, the North Korean government has gotten headaches from regulating the houses of civilians.

The North Korean government claims that the purpose of the regulations is “Destroying enemy maneuvers and directly impugn acts that pose a threat to society and the system.” North Korea’s opening and reform still seems far off.

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Posted in Central Communications Office, China, Civil society, International trade, Manufacturing, Television | Comments Closed

Surfing Net in North Korea

November 12th, 2007

Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
11/12/2007

Kim Jong-il loves to surf the net. In 2001 he asked the U.S. Secretary of State for her e-mail address, and in 2002 he told a visiting North Korean dignitary that he spent much time going through South Korean sites. He repeated this statement during the recent summit describing himself as ”an internet expert.”

Despite his relatively advanced age, Kim Jong-il takes the IT industry seriously. He obviously believes that the IT industry might become a wunderwaffen (super weapon) which one day will save the ailing North Korean economy (Kim Jong-il has always believed in simple, one-step, technology-based fixes for problems).

Now and then, news agencies report on North Korean efforts to train software specialists, or on a technology firm established by the North Koreans, or even on Kim Jong-il’s plans to create a large industrial complex which would become the North Korean reply to the Silicon Valley.

Efforts to create a computer industry go back to the late 1970s. In those days, the U.N. Development Program helped the North build a small pilot integrated circuit plant. Its history was plagued by one misfortune after another: the plant’s building proved to be badly insulated, the electricity supply was unreliable, and the engineers who were sent overseas for training arrived too late (most of them did not speak English, anyway). However, by late 1985 the plant was operational, producing ICs, an essential component of a computer.

By the early 1990s, the North was producing some 20,000 computers a year. Not much, but enough to provide for the military and even earn some money from export (over 60 percent of them were said to be exported).

In the early 1990s the North Koreans developed their own software, including a word processor. The latter had, among others, a peculiar function: it could automatically insert the names of the Great Leader and Dear Leader through a specially designated hot key.

In the North the PC was never meant to be a personal computer. It is reserved for office or industrial use, not for home – not least because the Internet is unavailable. For a regime which (correctly) assumes that its survival depends on its ability to keep the populace ignorant about outside world, the internet presents a mortal danger. Matters are further exacerbated by the unique success of the South Korean internet. If North Koreans were allowed to surf the numerous Southern sites at will, the carefully constructed picture of the world would instantly fall apart.

Thus, the internet is outlawed – but not completely. In recent years, foreign embassies have been allowed to connect to Chinese internet providers, but they have to pay the exorbitant fee for an overseas call (currently, $2 a minute). The connection is unreliable, but if your bills are paid by your country’s taxpayers, you probably can check your email… Access to email through business centers and even Internet cafes is becoming possible as well _ as long as one is a foreigner and is willing to pay exorbitant prices.

Only the privileged few have unlimited high-speed access to the Internet. But these trusted people are numbered in the hundreds or, perhaps, count a few thousands. Access is provided for the military, intelligence, and few privileged research centers only. Rooms where the internet-connected computers are installed are considered off limits for the North Korean personnel, and only people with proper security clearance can access this source of dangerous knowledge.

Less privileged institutions have access to local networks with limited connections to the World Wide Web. Their task is to let scientists and engineers retrieve the data they need without unduly exposing them to the dangers of overseas decadence.

There have been attempts to make money through IT. None of the grand plans for selling locally developed software on the international market have come to fruition, but there are easier ways to make a buck. In 2002 the North Koreans started an on-line gambling site in cooperation with a South Korean company. It targeted South Koreans, since gambling is illegal here. Its message board attracted much popularity since it was a place where the Southerners could exchange messages with the North Korean staff. The ability to chat with the Northerners was exciting (even though the largely young participants probably did not realize to which extent their interlocutors were controlled). The combination of gambling and propaganda obviously terrified Seoul, and the site was closed down.

Another area where North Koreans are trying their luck (and obviously not without moderate success) are game development and computer animation. Indeed, even major studios are sometimes inclined to outsource their animation work to North Korea.

The Internet remains a hot potato for the North Korean leaders. They understand its importance, but they do not know what to do about its political dangers. While facing such a choice, they have always opted for political security.

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Posted in Animation, Art, Communications, Computing/IT, Email, Gambling, Internet, Light Industry, Manufacturing, Sports, UNDP | Comments Closed

North Korea authorities “Stop Operating Chinese Motorcycles for Commercial Use”

November 12th, 2007

Daily NK
Kwon Jeong Hyun
11/12/2007

North Korean authorities recently started regulating motorcycle operation in order to control private market.

Motorcycle is most preferred means of transportation especially for North Korean salespersons. And in North Korea, everybody must get a license from the government to operate cars, motorcycles or even bicycles.

North Korean authorities now give license to only Made in DPRK “Bugang Motorcycle,” which is considerably more expensive than those imported from China.

Choi, a 33 years old resident of Sinuiju visiting his relative in Dandong, China, said on last Thursday “getting operator’s license for Made in China motorcycles has become ridiculously difficult.” According to Choi, only domestic motorcycle owners receive license and popular dissatisfaction increased.

It seems that North Korean authorities want to stop growing of private market by making it impossible to operate motorcycle, a vital part of transportation of goods.

Choi added “even before, someone had to bribe police officer to get a license, but now, bribery doesn’t work for Chinese-built motorcycles at all.”

Why people prefer Made in China? “Korean motorcycles manufactured in Pyongyang cost 1,500 US dollars and often break down. However, Chinese ones cost only 600 dollars while perform far better.”

Choi complained that “some people who operated Chinese motorcycle without license got their bikes confiscated.”

The loots were sent to the Army troops on DMZ.

Chinese motorcycle has become prevalent since 2002 when North Korean residents whose relatives lived in China received it as gift and operated for commercial purpose.

According to Choi, “Motorcycle can carry a certain amount of goods to inlands and it is so convenient. Even if motorcycle is expensive, everybody wants to own one. People buy seafood on the coast and bring them to the cities or sell small commodities.”

For alluvial gold, price differs among regions, so transporting it fast with motorcycle is lucrative business.

Lee, defected Pyongyang last year, said “In the past, a few rich people bought used Japanese motorcycles like Honda or Yamaha, but now many people operate Chinese ones for commercial purpose.”

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Posted in Automobiles, Bicycles, Black markets, China, Civil society, Economic reform, International trade, Manufacturing, Transportation | Comments Closed

Ignoring Buffett, Fabien Pictet Eyes North Korea Fund

November 11th, 2007

Bloomberg
Bradley Martin
11/2/2007

Fabien Pictet & Partners Ltd., a British money manager that specializes in emerging markets, plans to establish a fund focused on joint ventures in North Korea.

Fabien Pictet has applied to North Korea’s embassy in London for permission to visit Pyongyang to explore opportunities, Chief Executive Officer Richard Yarlott said in an interview. The closely held firm initially would buy into South Korean companies doing business in the north, he said.

“It would be very difficult to put more than $50 million directly into North Korea,” said Yarlott, 47, who helps manage $750 million of bonds and equities. “But it would be very easy to put $500 million into listed South Korean companies and then later, as we see specific private equity opportunities, go with them.” He declined to give further details.

A North-South agreement on economic cooperation, signed Oct. 4, may foster cross-border projects in industries such as mining and shipbuilding. Still, that prospect isn’t enough to lure billionaire investor Warren Buffett to a northern plunge.

“Things would have to change a whole lot before we can make investments,” said Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., during a visit to South Korea last week.

Buffett, who owns shares of South Korea’s Posco, Asia’s biggest steelmaker by market value, rates the nation’s stocks as “modestly cheaper” than most around the world. The benchmark Kospi index’s price-to-earnings multiple of 15.4 for current year estimated earnings is the lowest in Asia-Pacific after Thailand.

London-based Fabien Pictet, set up in 1998, invests in countries from Brazil to the Ukraine.

It started a South Korean equity fund, Three Kingdoms Korea Fund Inc., in 2004 partly to be ready for a northern push, Yarlott said.

LG Corp., Hyundai

South Korean companies — including units of LG Corp., the country’s fourth-largest industrial group, and Hyundai Corp. — have $2 billion to invest over the northern border, he said.

Three Kingdoms Korea has had a total return of 88.5 percent from April 30, 2004, to Sept. 28 this year. South Korea’s Kospi has risen 126 percent in the same period.

Foreign investment in North Korea has been legal since 1984 and repatriation of profits since 1992. The country doesn’t permit private ownership of assets and hasn’t established a stock exchange.

South Korea’s closely held Hyundai Asan Corp., which started a northern tourism business in 1998, has been reported to be struggling to avoid or reduce operating losses.

London-based Anglo-Sino Capital Partners Ltd., which in 2005 created Chosun Development and Investment Fund to focus on direct investment in North Korea, last month doubled its investment target, citing strong interest.

“We have raised the fund from $50 million to $100 million,” Colin McAskill, chairman in London of Koryo Asia Ltd., the Chosun fund adviser, said in an interview.

The fund will concentrate on direct transactions with North Korean companies that have been active internationally and have track records as foreign currency earners, he said.

Some investors say it’s too early to call North Korea an emerging market.

“I’m 77 years old and the thought that the day would come in my time — it’s very flattering but it’s a long way off,” said Buffett, also known as the “Sage of Omaha.”

Yarlott said the country was changing. “North Korea, like China, will develop a stock market,” he said.

“At this rate, even the sage will get a look-in.”

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Posted in Anglo-Sino Capital Partners Ltd, Banking, Economic reform, Fabien Pictet & Partners Ltd, Finance, Foreign direct investment | Comments Closed

Chongryun feature on Japanese telivision

November 11th, 2007

Via Youtube:

congryun.JPG

This feature is the only of which I am aware that so extensively covers the Chongryun in Japan.

Cick on the image to see it.

 

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North Korea Shuts Down Most of Its Complex Microbial Fertilizer Factories

November 11th, 2007

Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
11/11/2007

A source inside North Korea reports that most of the country’s complex microbial fertilizer factories built during the mass starvation period in 1990s for increase of food production have been shut down.

The source said, “Those factories built between 1996 and 1997 in Kyongsung county of North Hamkyung Province had produced fertilizers only for one year following the construction. The year after, they were shut down. Now, the factory buildings are cleared”

North Korean media has praised till quite recently about North Korea’s advanced technology for producing complex microbial fertilizers. They said that the country’s fertilizer-producing technology and nature farming methods helped solve the food crisis and protect the ecosystem of North Korea. South Korean media have also once positively reported upon North Korea’s new fertilizer-producing technology.

However, the source said, “The situation is pretty much the same across the country. Most factories had stopped operating the year after the construction. It was Kim Jong Il who gave orders to build those fertilizer plants. But many factories fell into ruins.”

North Korea had built more than one hundred complex microbial fertilizer plants throughout the country during the mass starvation period in 1990s because it needed quite an amount of fertilizers to increase crop production.

The agricultural technology, which uses complex microbial fertilizers is a natural farming method developed by Dr. Teruo Higa, a professor at Ryukus University, Okinawa, Japan and the founder of Effective Microorganisms(EM) technology. Since complex microbial fertilizers contain 100 times more nutrients than ordinary fertilizers, they are used in many places in South Korea such as Yichu city of Kyungki Province where environment-friendly agriculture method is being practiced.

When crop production rapidly decreased in the mid 1990s, the failure was attributed to soil acidification, and Kim Jong Il urged his people to spread burnt soil, decomposed grass and compound fertilizers composed of soil, manure and chemical fertilizers over the field.

Unfortunately, that did not work. Then, Kim Jong Il gave another order to produce complex microbial fertilizers in large quantities in an attempt to increase crop production. Upon his order, North Korea started promoting the construction of complex microbial fertilizer plants through Chongryon (General Association of North Korean Residents in Japan) and built more than one hundred factories nationwide for the period of one year including ‘Patriotic Center for Complex Microorganism,’ whose construction work was completed in June, 1997.

Many North Koreans had to use pure grain to make complex microorganisms instead of costly granulated sugar. However, that was a bad idea because there was food shortage across nation and a great number of people were staving to death. Moreover, North Korea should not have wasted grain for microorganism production in such situation because it takes three years to see any effect of the use of microorganisms on crop production.

Kim Yong Hwa (pseudonym), a defector from Hyesan city of Yangkang Province, who used to work at ‘Patriotic Center for Complex Microorganism’ said, “350 kg of corn is used to make one ton of fermentation solution. That amount of corn is sufficient enough to feed one person for an entire year. Overall, the plant had used 38 tons of corn during its first two- year operation.”

The defector said, “The workers received food ration, but it wasn’t enough. So, many people stole corn power and even fermentation solution from the factory.” The defector added, “When people heard that we were using corn to make fertilizers, they found it hard to believe at first, but soon flared up in anger, saying ‘those microorganisms are eating us.’”

The defector said, “In addition, we did not know what to do with microorganisms we had produced because we didn’t have gas and a means of transportation. Sometimes, containers for storing microorganisms were lost or broken. We also had difficulty to move around microorganisms because they were produced in liquid form.”

Kim said the locals did not believe the expert’s explanation that microorganisms would produce germs three years later, which produce nitrogen gas, and therefore make soil rich. He said that the locals disapproved the use of corn for the production of microorganisms, and had no interest in sowing microorganisms in the field. Therefore, Kim said, the plant had to close.

South Korean experts have continued to point out the problem of soil acidification in North Korea and encourage the use of organic fertilizers. Nevertheless, many defectors criticized the use of grain for the production of complex microbial fertilizers for being detached from the realities of food situation in North Korea.

Lee Min Bok, a defector who used to work at North Korean Academy of Agricultural Science, said, “Staring with 1979, soil acidification became a serious problem, and Kim Jung Il has been giving orders to improve soil condition. The use of microorganisms can better the condition to some extent. However, North Korea needs to come up with comprehensive policies on its agricultural structure, anti-flood afforestation, and the establishment of production systems for chemical and organic fertilizers to solve the acidification problem.”

The source inside North Korea said, “In 1996, the authorities began praising about the effect of complex microbial fertilizers. Disappointedly, there weren’t any significant effect. So, starting with 1999, many fertilizers plants began to shut down.” The source added, “Most plants fell into ruin except few large factories such as Patriotic Center for Complex Microorganism in Pyongyang and a fertilizer plant in Rasun.”

North Korea began to display an interest in the production of complex microbial fertilizers because it had failed to produce enough manure and chemical fertilizers before. The South Korean government agreed to provide North Korea with 300,000 tons of chemical fertilizers this year and 400,000 tons next year.

According to Rodong Shinmun (North Korean state newspaper), Kim Jong Il spoke about the worldwide decrease in the production of chemical fertilizers, and stressed the importance of the use of microbial fertilizers in May, 2004.

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Posted in Agriculture, Labor conditions/wages, Manufacturing | Comments Closed

Google Earth North Korea (version 6)

November 11th, 2007

The most authoritative map of North Korea on Google Earth
North Korea Uncovered: Version 6
Download it here

kissquare.JPGThis map covers North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, manufacturing facilities, railroad, energy infrastructure, politics, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, and national parks. It is continually expanding and undergoing revisions. This is the sixth version.

Additions to the newest version of North Korea Uncovered include: Alleged Syrian nuclear site (before and after bombing), Majon beach resort, electricity grid expansion, Runga Island in Pyongyang, Mt. Ryongak, Yongbyon historical fort walls, Suyang Fort walls and waterfall in Haeju, Kaechon-Lake Taesong water project, Paekma-Cholsan waterway, Yachts (3), and Hyesan Youth Copper Mine.

Disclaimer: I cannot vouch for the authenticity of many locations since I have not seen or been to them, but great efforts have been made to check for authenticity. These efforts include pouring over books, maps, conducting interviews, and keeping up with other peoples’ discoveries. In many cases, I have posted sources, though not for all. This is a thorough compilation of lots of material, but I will leave it up to the reader to make up their own minds as to what they see. I cannot catch everything and I welcome contributions.

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Posted in Advertising, Agriculture, Architecture, Automobiles, Aviation, Banking, Black markets, Committee for Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries, Communications, Computing/IT, Dams/hydro, Department Store No. 1, Economic reform, Education, Electricity, Energy, Environmental protection, Film, Finance, Fiscal & monetary policy, Football (soccer), Forestry, Gambling, Gasoline, General markets (FMR: Farmers Market), Golf, Google Earth, Hana Electronics Company, Health care, Hoteling, Hwanggumphyong and Wihwado Economic Zones (Sinuiju), Hyesan Youth Cooper Mine, Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), Kim Il Sung University, Korea Computer Center (KCC), Library, Light Industry, Mansudae creative Company (art studio), Manufacturing, Mass games, Maternity Hospital, Military, Mining/Minerals, Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Foreign Trade, Mt. Kumgang Tourist Special Zone, Musan Mine, Music, Nuclear, Pyongyang Embroidery Institute, Pyongyang Film Studio, Pyongyang Informatics Center (PIC), Pyongyang International Information Center of New Techn, Pyongyang International Trade Fair, Pyongyang Metro, Railways, Rason Economic and Trade Zone (Rajin-Sonbong), Real estate, Religion, Restaurants, Sea shipping, Special Economic Zones (Established before 2013), Sports, Steel, Supreme Peoples Assembly, Television, Tourism, Transportation, Water, Wind | Comments Closed

N. Korea Offers Evidence to Rebut Uranium Claims

November 10th, 2007

Washington Post
By Glenn Kessler
11/10/2007
Page A01

North Korea is providing evidence to the United States aimed at proving that it never intended to produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons, undermining a key U.S. intelligence finding, South Korean and U.S. officials said this week.

In closely held talks, the North Korean government has granted U.S. experts access to equipment and documents to make its case, in preparation for declaring the extent of its nuclear activities before the end of the year. North Korean officials hope the United States will simultaneously lift sanctions against Pyongyang as the declaration is made.

If North Korea successfully demonstrates that U.S. accusations about the uranium-enrichment program are wrong, it will be a blow to U.S. intelligence and the Bush administration’s credibility.

The U.S. charges of a large-scale uranium program led to the collapse of a Clinton-era agreement that had frozen a North Korean reactor that produced a different nuclear substance — plutonium. That development freed North Korea to use the plutonium route toward gathering the material needed for a nuclear weapon. Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test last year, detonating a plutonium-based device, and has built a plutonium stockpile that experts estimate could yield eight to 10 nuclear weapons.

“They have shown us some things, and we are working it through,” a senior U.S. official said yesterday, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the talks are confidential. “We are having a discussion about things. Some explanations make sense; some are a bit of a stretch.”

“This is now in the process of being clarified,” a senior South Korean official said in an interview. “The North Koreans are now ready to prove that they did not intend to make a uranium-enrichment program by importing some materials.”

He said North Korea is attempting to show that the materials it imported — including 150 tons of aluminum tubes from Russia in June 2002 — were intended for conventional weapons programs and other dual-use projects, not for weapons of mass destruction.

The South Korean official said North Korea’s efforts mark an important shift. “In the past, North Korea simply said no,” he said. “Now they are trying to convince us.”

U.S. intelligence first concluded in July 2002 that North Korea had embarked on a large-scale program to produce highly enriched uranium for use in weapons, saying it was constructing a facility that would be fully operational by 2005. “We discovered that, contrary to an agreement they had with the United States, they’re enriching uranium, with a desire of developing a weapon,” President Bush said in a November 2002 news conference.

U.S. officials have also asserted that a senior North Korean official admitted the existence of the program in an October 2002 meeting in Pyongyang between officials from both nations. North Korea later denied that any such admission took place.

After the administration accused Pyongyang of violating a 1994 agreement struck with President Bill Clinton to freeze its plutonium facilities, North Korea ejected U.N. inspectors from the country and restarted its plutonium reactor, allowing it to stockpile its weapons-grade material.

For years afterward, during the impasse over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, the Bush administration insisted that North Korea first admit having the uranium facility, rejecting arguments from other nations that it was more important to freeze the plutonium facility in order to halt the nation’s production. After North Korea tested the nuclear device, the administration agreed to a deal in which Pyongyang froze and then disabled the plutonium facility in exchange for international aid.

Plutonium and highly enriched uranium provide different routes to building nuclear weapons. The North Koreans were able to reprocess 8,000 spent fuel rods — which had been held in a cooling pond and monitored by U.N. inspectors under the 1994 agreement — to acquire the weapons-grade plutonium. A uranium program would have required Pyongyang to build a facility with thousands of centrifuges to obtain the highly enriched uranium needed for a weapon. Iran’s nuclear program, which the United States alleges is intended for weapons, involves enriched uranium.

The administration this year began to back off its earlier assertions that North Korea has an active program to enrich uranium. In February, the chief U.S. intelligence officer for North Korea, Joseph R. DeTrani, told Congress that while there is “high confidence” that North Korea acquired materials that could be used in a “production-scale” uranium program, there is only “mid-confidence” that such a program exists.

David Albright, a former U.N. inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, said in a report this year that there is “ample evidence” that North Korea was trying to put together a small-scale research program involving a few dozen centrifuges but that claims of a large-scale effort were flawed.

Albright said yesterday that the tubes acquired by North Korea needed to be cut in half and shaped in order to be used as the outer casings of centrifuges. If Pyongyang proves that the tubes were untouched, he said, it could “shatter the argument” that they were meant for a uranium program.

But Albright said it is difficult to see how North Korea could explain away a set of centrifuges that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said a Pakistani nuclear-smuggling network provided to Pyongyang. “I think the North Koreans are making a big mistake” if they deny they had any interest in uranium enrichment, he said. “They are going to create a lot of trouble if they stick to this.”

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Posted in Energy, Nuclear | Comments Closed

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