DPRK delpoys Pokpung-ho (Storm)

December 30th, 2010

Image from KCTV via Yonhap

According to Yonhap:

North Korea has deployed new battle tanks and bolstered the size of its special forces by 20,000 over the past two years, deepening the threat of unconventional warfare against South Korea, the South’s new defense white paper said Thursday.

The biennial defense paper also defined the North Korean regime and its military as the “enemy” of South Korea, a description stronger than before but short of reviving the symbolic tag of “main enemy” for the communist neighbor.

The new white paper was released as the South’s military resolved to strike back hard against future provocations by the North, which last month bombarded the South’s front-line island of Yeonpyeong, killing two marines and two civilians.

“Threats from North Korea’s asymmetric warfare capabilities such as special forces, artillery pieces and weapons of mass destruction have been on a steady rise since 2008,” Deputy Minister Chang Kwang-il told reporters.

Military officials here have said the North is increasingly focused on unconventional or “asymmetric” weapons, such as improvised explosives or low-cost missiles because the regime knows its aging conventional weapons are no match for the technologically superior South Korean and U.S. forces

The white paper confirmed for the first time that North Korea deployed its new battle tank, called the “Pokpung-ho,” which in Korean means “Storm Tiger,” believed to have been developed in the 1990s based on the Soviet Union’s T-72 tanks.

The North’s new tank is presumed to be equipped with either a 125- or 115-millimeter main gun, similar to that of the T-50 battle tank of the Russian Army, defense ministry officials said.

The paper didn’t say how many of the new tanks North Korea has “deployed for operational use,” but said the number of North Korean tanks rose to some 4,100 units as of November this year, from 3,900 in 2008.

Also, the paper said the number of lightly equipped North Korean special forces, who are trained to quickly infiltrate South Korea, increased to 200,000 from 180,000.

Overall, the total number of North Korean soldiers remained unchanged at about 1.19 million, but the North has reorganized its military to add four new divisions, the paper said.

Although its number of artillery pieces changed little over the past two years, its 170mm self-propelled artillery and 240mm multiple rocket launchers deployed on the front line are capable of carrying out a “massive surprise bombardment” on the South Korean capital of Seoul and its neighboring areas, the paper said.

North Korea is “presumed to have secured about 40 kilograms” of weapons-grade plutonium by reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods four times by 2009, the paper said.

Concerns about the North’s nuclear weapons program deepened last month when Pyongyang, which conducted two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, revealed a uranium enrichment facility to a visiting U.S. scientist. The uranium enrichment program could give the North a second route to build a nuclear bomb.

“Given that North Korea claimed that some 2,000 centrifuges are operational in November 2010, the North is presumed to have pushed for the highly enriched uranium (HEU) program,” the paper said.

Early this week, Chang told reporters that his ministry decided not to revive the “main enemy” tag for the North to “minimize controversy,” because the defense white paper is an official government document that is “used internally and externally.”

Thursday’s defense paper clarified that the “North Korean regime and military are our enemy” that poses a “grave threat” to the South’s security by “staging military provocations such as the torpedo attack on the Cheonan warship and the shelling on Yeonpyeong Island.” Forty-six sailors were killed when the North allegedly torpedoed the Cheonan warship in March in the Yellow Sea.

“Not using the expression ‘main enemy’ does not mean that we softened our stance,” Chang said.

The new description is aimed at sending a strong message of warning to the North and clarifying that the North Korean regime and its military, not the people, are aggressors, according to the official.

South Korea first used the label “main enemy” for North Korea in its 1995 white paper after North Korea threatened to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire” a year earlier. Seoul stopped using the expression in 2004 in an apparent bid not to antagonize Pyongyang amid then-thawing ties.

In its defense paper published in 2008 under the government of President Lee Myung-bak, South Korea called North Korea an “immediate and grave threat” to its national security.

The two Koreas are still technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in the South, a legacy of the three-year war.

The New York Times has more.

Additional information:
1. This web page does not focus on military affairs (except when it overlaps with Google Earth research or broader economics), but I have put some military information resources here for the convenience of readers.  Please let me know if anything should be added.

2. I have kept a chronological list of Yonpyong stories here.

3. I have kept a chronological list of stories related to the DPRK’s new uranium facilities here.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea deploys new battle tanks, boosts special forces
Yonhap
Kim Deok-hyun
12/30/2010

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Rumored $3.5b Chinese investment deal

December 30th, 2010

The Choson Ilbo begins this story with “Rumor has it”….

Rumor has it that China is getting directly involved in the development of North Korea’s Rajin-Sonbong Port, once the center of the UN Development Programme’s Duman (or Tumen) River project in 1991. A source in Beijing said Wednesday, “As far as I’m aware, North Korea and China’s Commerce Ministry recently signed a memorandum of understanding outlining Beijing’s investment of US$3.5 billion over five years beginning next year” in the special economic zone there. The source said China is investing in roads, ports and gas facilities in the region.

The Rajin-Sonbong area, at the mouth of the Duman River, is a strategic point of economic cooperation between the two countries, but neither bank is Chinese territory. One side is in North Korea and the other in Russia, so to get to the East Sea China had to borrow a port from either side. China did nothing about the UNDP initiative in the 1990s, but since the mid-2000s, it has set its eyes on the area.

North Korea for some reason rented out the best equipped dock there to Russia in 2008 but since last year it has been seeking investment from China to overcome dried-up aid from South Korea amid international sanctions. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il urged Chinese President Hu Jintao when he visited China in May this year to invest in the region.

But the rumor of direct investment from the Chinese government has not been confirmed. One diplomatic source in Beijing said, “I’ve heard nothing about the Chinese Commerce Ministry’s direct involvement in negotiations. It’s just one of many rumors since North Korea became active in developing the Rajin-Sonbong area.”

UPDATE from the Choson Ilbo:

Chinese officials with close ties with North Korea say the North has used to demand hard cash for business deals but is now taking a more flexible approach. The Global Times, a sister publication of the People’s Daily, published a series of reports Saturday about the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone of North Korea.

It said street lights and neon signs powered by windmills have appeared in the region, which had earlier been pitch dark at night, while the previously ubiquitous soldiers have vanished.

North Korea allowed 4,000 Chinese residents in the area to rent commercial property and agreed to designate an area in the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone to be jointly administered by the two countries.

North Korea had offered China to develop one or two islands in the estuary of the Apnok River on a 50-year lease, but when China demurred it apparently offered a 100-year lease and even allowed construction of golf courses and other recreational facilities.

Many private Chinese companies are reticent about investing in North Korea. Not only is there a lack of business laws to protect their investment, there are also too many political uncertainties. As a result, the Chinese government is not playing a very active role. In the case of the bridge across the Apnok River, North Korea apparently wanted Chinese state-run companies to take part in construction, but Beijing declined.

One source in Beijing said some Chinese companies are showing great interest in developing the Rajin-Sonbong area, but most are biding their time. “Chinese businesses still don’t seem to trust the sincerity of North Korea’s desire to open up its economy,” the source added.

Additional Information:
1. The Chinese and Russians currently lease docks at Rajin. You can see a satellite image of them here.

2. Here is more information on China’s 10-year lease of Rajin.

3. Here is information on the Yalu Islands China is reportedly leasing.

4. The Russians are also building Russian gauge railway line from the Russian border to the port in Rajin.

5. Here are all previous Rajin (Rason)posts

Read the full stories here:
Beijing ‘Pouring Money into N.Korea’s Special Economic Zone’
Choson Ilbo
12/30/2010

N.Korea’s Cross-Border Business with China Picking Up
Choson Ilbo
12/30/2010

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DPRK sends new year fax

December 30th, 2010

According to Yonhap:

Closing a tense year in cross-border relations, North Korea is faxing New Year’s greetings to South Koreans likely to support the resumption of cross-border aid next year, an official said Thursday.

A total of 35 organizations, including local governments near the border with the North, and 15 South Korean activists, have so far received such faxes, the government official said, asking not to be identified by post or name.

North Korea has often used fax documents this year to deny its involvement in the deadly March sinking of a South Korean warship and its responsibility for the artillery exchange between the two countries in the Yellow Sea in November.

Two South Korean marines and two civilians were killed in the artillery attack on the island of Yeonpyeong. The latest North Korean fax offensive did not refer to the attack, but contained calls for the South to honor their past two summit deals promising economic aid and cooperation for the North, the official said.

“We are here sending New Year’s greetings. We wish you success in your patriotic activities toward the reunification of the (Korean) nation and the defense of peace and stability under the banner of the inter-Korean declarations,” the fax was quoted as saying.

North Korea has sent similar faxes to South Korea annually since 2001, according to the official. The two countries held their first summit in 2000, and the second one took place in 2007.

The official said the recipients this year included the Incheon city government and the Gangwon provincial government, both of which are headed by liberals supporting assistance to North Korea.

“The North also appears to be trying to create a rift and trigger an anti-government struggle among us,” the official said.

The ties between the Koreas deteriorated after a conservative government took power here in early 2008, suspending unconditional aid and pushing the North harder to take denuclearization steps.

The two Koreas remain technically at war after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty. South Koreans are banned by law from contacting North Koreans without prior approval.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea faxing New Year’s greetings to S. Koreans
Yonhap
Sam Kim
12/30/2010

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DPRK rice price stubbornly high

December 29th, 2010

According to the Daily NK:

Even though the price of rice is over 1,300 won per kilogram in North Korean markets, cadres and the upper class are hoarding rice and grain. This is because a rumor is spreading saying that the international community may suspend food aid to North Korea next year due to the Yeonpyeong attack so the price of rice may not drop next year.

A source from Hoiryeong, North Hamkyung Province, said that, “In the Hoiryeong Jangmadang, rice sells over for 1,300 won per kilogram. Even though it is an unreasonably higher price than in previous years, the wealthy are hoarding the rice they will consume for the next year.”

Immediately after the Yeonpyeong attack, the price of rice soared to over 1,300 won and has stayed at that level. This is because the value of the Yuan has gone up since the currency redenomination last year.

The source explained, “Despite the high price of rice, people purchase it in bulk because they believe that next year the price may not decline considering the current trend.” He added, “A rumor that we won’t receive food aid next year due to being internationally isolated has been circulated by those who get international and domestic information via foreign radio or those who have visited China for private reasons.”

The source reported that, “Based on the experiences of the last decade, people know very well that there will be no food aid from the outside world when the situation is tense like it is this year.”

“Not only those who support themselves through commerce, but also family members of officials of the National Security Agency and People’s Safety Ministry, who primarily live off the national distribution system, are spending all the money they’ve saved to buy up food. They buy reserve provisions in order not to worry about a possible suspension of the distribution system.”

According to the explanation of the source, at the time of the November 30 currency redenomination last year, those who had goods to trade did not get hit hard. Therefore, wealthy people try to obtain more food despite the high price.

Read the full story here:
The Rich Hoarding Rice
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
12/29/2010

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Hot 2010 DPRK consumer goods

December 28th, 2010

According to Yonhap:

Skinny jeans, blue crabs, pig-intestine rolls and even human manure were some of the hottest items among North Korean consumers this year, according to a South Korean professor who has interviewed recent defectors from the communist country.

Kim Young-soo, a political science professor at Seoul’s Sogang University, said in a conference on Tuesday that adult movies, television dramas and instant noodle “ramen” made in South Korea are also selling “like hot cakes” in North Korea.

Skinny jeans refer to slim-fit pants that have gained popularity around the world, said Kim who interviewed about 2,000 defectors this year as part of a research project for the government.

He said that skinny jeans are so popular in the North’s capital, Pyongyang, that people there sometimes mistakenly believe Chinese wearing the stylish clothes are roaming their capital.

“These are signs that North Korea is easing its isolation,” Kim said in a telephone interview, noting that such lifestyle changes are conspicuous in Pyongyang and areas near the border with China.

The professor said many of the defectors he has interviewed had stayed in China no longer than a month before they came to South Korea, allowing him to have a relatively up-to-date glimpse of the latest culture in the communist country.

Kim said defectors told him pine mushrooms were also a “hit” among North Koreans this year because exports to South Korea had been diverted into the domestic market since cross-border tensions soared over the deadly March sinking of a South Korean warship.

After a multinational investigation in May found North Korea responsible for the sinking that killed 46 sailors, Seoul banned cross-border trade as part of its punitive measures.

Kim said blue crabs have met the same fate as pine mushrooms, allowing North Koreans to enjoy what was once a rarity for them. The professor even told of a shop in which human manure could be traded to be used as an alternative to chemical fertilizer, an item on which the North had heavily depended from the South for years.

“Soondae,” or sausage rolls stuffed with ingredients such as noodles and vegetables and wrapped in pig intestine films, has also made inroads into the market as a staple after the military stopped collecting pork and other food items from civilians, Kim said.

“These changes may not necessarily lead to greater ones in society, but they do bear a meaning,” he said.

Read the full sotry here:
Skinny jeans, pig-intestine rolls among “hit items” in North Korea this year: survey
Yonhap
Sam Kim
12/28/2010

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DPRK elevates status of national resource development office

December 28th, 2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-12-22
12/22/2010

On December 1, the North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly Standing Committee announced an order to elevate the position of the National Resource Development Office, which is overseen by the Cabinet’s Ministry of Extractive Industry, to the Ministry of National Resource Development. According to the Korea Central News Agency, this measure is aimed at increasing development and export of underground resources as international sanctions against the North further limit Pyongyang’s access to foreign capital.

The regime’s focus on increasing earnings can be seen in Kim Jong Il’s on-site guidance trips, as well. The KCNA reported on December 3 that Kim had recently visited Danchon, South Hamgyong Province, touring the Danchon Magnesia Factory, the Danchon Mining Equipment Factory, and the Danchon Port facilities. During his visit to the magnesia factory, Kim Jong Il emphasized the need for increasing the production of quality asphalt. In addition, after receiving a report on the status of implementation of CNC in the Danchon Mining Equipment Factory, he stated, “The factory needs to normalize at a high level of mass production to turn out the necessary numbers of mining and processing equipment.” Upon reviewing the Danchon Port facilities, Kim Jong Il urged staff to work towards ensuring a loud chorus of boat whistles in the port for the upcoming 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung in 2012.

U.S. financial sanctions levied against the North have made it difficult for Pyongyang to collect export earnings from its mining efforts, one of its key earners of foreign capital. In May of last year, when sanctions were strengthened in response to North Korea’s second nuclear test, European and even Chinese banks froze money transfers to North Korea. The [North] Korea Magnesia Clinker Manufacturing Group could not collect 4.6 million USD in earnings from the export of zinc to Europe. It appears that the North has tried to compensate for these losses by increasing the export of iron ore from Musan. Exports to China passing through the Musan customs office have more than doubled, rising from 1200 to 2500 tons per day.

The mines of Musan, holding more than seven billion tons of iron ore, are the North’s primary vehicle for earning foreign capital. In 2004, China’s Tonghua Steel and Iron Group signed a contract with North Korean authorities granting the group 50-year development rights at some key North Korean mines, and is planning to invest seven billion Yuan in developing the sites. Beijing plans to use the access to North Korean mines to meet some of the expected 80 million ton shortfall of iron ore in 2010. However, there are rumors that North Korea has canceled the contract with no explanation, causing much speculation about the direction of Pyongyang’s export strategy.

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DPRK plans Kim Jong-un lectures

December 27th, 2010

According to the Daily NK:

In advance of the new year, 2011, the North Korean authorities have released lecture materials to emphasize “Kim Jong Eun’s leadership.” It implies that they are going to make 2011 the year of Kim Jong Eun, though without the label of “successor.”

A source from Yangkang Province reported on Monday on “a lecture entitled, ‘In the New Year under comrade Kim Jong Eun’s leadership the whole people should be united impregnably around the Party and open the gate of 2012 as a strong and prosperous state.’ It has been spread to each organ and enterprise.”

The source added, “The secretary of the party cell reported that this material was handed down and said the party is going to hold a lecture around the 30th. He stressed that we definitely must attend the lecture.”

Since the North’s authorities announced publicly the Kim Jong Eun succession through the Delegates’ Conference of the Chosun Workers’ Party and on the founding day of the Party, they have been speeding up the process of the succession through releasing Kim Jong Eun’s public activities such as military or security related on-site inspections with his father through the state publications and orders handed down from Kim Jong Eun.

The source reported the mood there, saying that, “Even though the authorities have been clamoring for decades to ‘Protect the Suryeong (Absolute Leader) to the Death,’ there are still many citizens who don’t attend lectures. When they do go to the lectures, they think it is a time napping.”

He went on, “Nowadays as food prices and other prices are soaring, people say that it’s hard to live or they aren’t sure about the propaganda.”

The source construed the attempt to hold lectures about Kim Jong Eun’s leadership likely to be a countermeasure to eliminate people’s discontent with Kim Jong Eun.

Read the full story here:
Lecture Scheduled on Kim Jong Eun’s Leadership
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
12/27/2010

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ROK spends 5.6 pct of inter-Korean cooperation fund

December 26th, 2010

According to Yonhap:

South Korea has spent only 5.6 percent of its funds earmarked for promoting humanitarian and economic ties with North Korea this year, the unification ministry said Sunday, as inter-Korean relations tumbled to their worst in decades.

As of the end of November, the ministry said it had endorsed spending worth some 62.6 billion won (US$54.4 million) from its South-North Cooperation Fund, or 5.6 percent of the total allocated for this year.

Just over half the sum, or about 32.8 billion won, went toward financing loans for inter-Korean trade and economic cooperation, while another 27.8 billion won was spent on improving exchanges among families separated across the border and other humanitarian projects.

The low spending rate apparently reflects the ban on cross-border exchanges following the deadly March sinking of a South Korean warship, blamed on a North Korean torpedo attack, and escalated tensions on the peninsula since the North’s artillery attack on a southern island last month.

The fund’s implementation rate ranged from 37 to 92.5 percent between 2000 and 2007, but nosedived after President Lee Myung-bak took power in 2008 with a hard-line policy on the North. That year, the rate stood at 18.1 percent before dropping further to 8.6 percent in 2009.

Read the full story here:
S. Korea spends 5.6 pct of inter-Korean cooperation fund
Yonhap
12/26/2010

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DPRK trying to crack down on defections

December 24th, 2010

According to the Daily NK:

North Korea’s National Security Agency (NSA) is trying to use smugglers to crack down on defectors, an inside source has revealed to The Daily NK.

The source from Yangkang Province told a Daily NK reporter on Tuesday, “The Yangkang provincial NSA office has ordered smugglers investigated recently to report those who cross the river for the purpose of going to South Korea.”

In many border regions, smugglers play the role of brokers in river-crossing defections. As of late November this year, the commission earned by a smuggler for facilitating a river crossing was about 4000 to 6000 Yuan per person. For 500 to 1000 Yuan, the smugglers were willing to convey goods back across the Yalu River, too.

The source said, “About two hundred people convicted of smuggling were called in by the NSA,” explaining that they were told, “If they report river crossers to the NSA, the NSA promised to guarantee their smuggling activities.”

The reason for the new policy, the source also explained, is that “while the government keeps strengthening border controls and orders punishment for river crossers, the number of defections is not decreasing, so they have formulated a new plan. It has met with modest early success; on December 16th, three people who were crossing the Yalu River from Huchang to Changbai (China) were arrested by the NSA.”

However, the source pointed out, “Since some smugglers are cooperating with the NSA now, the number of river crossers might decrease for a while, but it will come back to normal. Those smugglers who report to the NSA will lose customers, and those who don’t will have more.”

Read the full story here:
Smugglers Told to Shop Defectors
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
12/24/2010

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EU Extends Visa Bans and Asset Freezes on DPRK

December 24th, 2010

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The European Union has decided to renew and extend its list of people and entities in North Korea who are subject to restrictive measures.

One individual and six entities were added to the list due to their involvement with the North’s nuclear arms program or other weapons-related activities.

The measures include both a visa ban and an asset freeze. The list, which currently contains 18 individuals and 12 entities, was published in the EU Official Journal on Thursday.

The EU says “the decision also limits financing activities and trade” with Pyongyang, particularly of arms and related materials that could be used in the development of weapons of mass destruction.

The official EU publication, featuring all of the specifics, can be found here (PDF).

Read the full story here:
EU Extends Visa Bans and Asset Freezes on N.Korea
Choson Ilbo
12/24/2010

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