Women compose 80% of defections

May 28th, 2011

In a May 28th article, the Choson Ilbo reported the DPRK’s National Defense Commission (NDC) is trying to make it harder for women to defect by more stringently enforcing domestic travel restrictions.  According to the article:

The North Korean regime has reportedly ordered border guards to stop all women from traveling on railways and roads to the North Korea-China border. The order, which targets all girls and women between 10 and 60, came recently from the powerful National Defense Commission.

Whether the story is true or not remains to be seen, but the article does highlight the significant gender imbalance among North Korean defectors:

More than 400 defectors arrive in South Korea every month, and about 80 percent of them are women.

There are several reasons given for this lopsided sex ratio.  I have supplemented the list of those items and classified them below:

On the supply side (push factors):

1. Women, as the primary bread-winners in the DPRK’s markets (the place to go for unsanctioned rumors), are exposed to more information about the outside world.

2. The DPRK’s efforts to reign in market activity have made many women despondent.

3. Women, who in many cases do not need to appear at an official job every morning, face lower monitoring costs, and thus have an easier time disappearing.

Demand side (pull factors):

1. Since there is a market for North Korean women in China, smugglers have an economic interest in facilitating defections.

2. It is easier for North Korean women to marry South Korean men than for North Korean men to marry South Korean women.

Of course Haggard and Noland have done systematic surveys of North Korean defectors.  You can learn more here.

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American, Jun, released by DPRK

May 27th, 2011

UPDATE 13 (2011-6-1): KCNA has posted video of Ambassador Robert King leaving the DPRK with Mr. Jun.  You can see it at the new KCNA web page in an article titled, “Delegation of U.S. State Department Leaves” (May 28, 2011).   There are also pictures here, here, here, here, and here.

UPDATE 12 (2011-5-27): The DPRK has announced that they released Mr. Jun.  According to KCNA:

American Young-su Jun Released

Pyongyang, May 27 (KCNA) — As already reported, American Young-su Jun has been under investigation by a relevant institution after he was arrested in Nov. 2010 on charges of anti-DPRK crime.

The investigation proved that Jun committed serious crime against the DPRK which he frankly admitted himself.

Robert King, special envoy for Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues, U.S. State Department on a visit to the DPRK, expressed regret at the incident on behalf of the U.S. government and assured that it would make all its efforts to prevent the recurrence of similar incident. Earlier, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and Reverend Franklin Graham visited the DPRK and repeatedly asked it to leniently pardon him. Taking all this into account, the DPRK government decided to set him free from the humanitarian stand.

During his detention, the DPRK allowed him to make regular contacts with the consul of the Swedish embassy representing the U.S. interests in the DPRK as well as correspondence and phone call with his family. It also gave him hospital treatment for his health reason.

You can read more in the Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times.

UPDATE 11 (2011-5-18): The Daily NK asserts that Jun has been beaten and was supporting a network of underground churches n the DPRK.

UPDATE 10 (2011-5-11): The AP (via Washington Post) reports Eddie Jun has been visited by Swedish diplomats six times since March.

The U.S. government says that an American detained by North Korea since November is being well cared for and has been permitted to speak to his family by phone.

State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Wednesday Swedish diplomats have visited Eddie Jun six times since March and were continuing at U.S. request to ask for regular consular access.

Read the rest of this entry »

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New DPRK status symbols

May 26th, 2011

According to the Daily NK, motorcycles, computers, and “big dogs” have replaced the rice cooker and wristwatch as the cutting edge status symbols among North Koreans.

According to the article:

In today’s North Korea, where wealth inequality is growing more and more extreme, what is a symbol of upper class income status? Just a few years ago, the answer was a branded South Korean rice cooker, the ‘Cuckoo’. So much so, indeed, that the brand name has totally usurped the dictionary description, ‘pressurized electric rice cooker’, altogether.

However, according to a new interview with a cadre from an enterprise in Chongjin published in the new, June edition of NK Vision, the most potent recent symbols of a wealthy family are motorcycles, notebook computers and military dogs!

“Nowadays in Chongjin, transport agents are being stationed here and there because of motorcycle accidents. There are usually around three motorcycle accidents per day, and people are losing their lives,” the cadre explained.

The majority of the motorcycles ridden in North Korea are Chinese brands such as Jangbaeksan costing around 2,000-3,000 Yuan (with 1 Yuan worth 400 North Korean won). Meanwhile, even second-hand versions of Japanese brands including Yamaha and Honda cost considerably more than 5,000 Yuan.

The cadre continued, “The bicycle is still the basic means of transport, as it has been until now. But the bicycle is now just a really ordinary means of transport; it is no longer a symbol of wealth.”

A notebook computer is another symbol of economic good health. Among other reasons, this is because in random inspections by the North Korean authorities they check computers, and since notebook computers can be hidden easily, they are enjoying great popularity.

The source explained, “On average, computer checks crop up once every two or three months, and since this happens without warning, we cannot get rid of things like foreign movies or Korean songs. Seeing these checks getting more serious, nowadays notebook computers are the most popular thing.”

Big dogs are, similarly, growing in popularity, even though one dog can cost as much as 100,000 North Korean won, or more than 50kg of rice. According to the cadre, there is sound logic to this, too.

“Affluent households need dogs to deter thieves, and a military dog can be raised for around seven years then it leaves meat to the house,” he explained.

Yesterday, Martyn Williams informed us about the DPRK’s juche laptop!

Read thee full story here:
Motorcycles and Notebook Computers
Daily NK
Kim So-yeol
2011-5-26

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Retail competition in the DPRK

May 25th, 2011

A visitor to the DPRK sends in a picture of a 10% discount coupon received at a hard currency shop in Pyongyang.

The coupon is issued by the 6.17 Trading Company, and according to a member of my crack translation team it reads:

One coupon per party is given when the party has spent more than 50 Euros at our restaurant during their visit. The next time you visit our restaurant, 10% discount will be applied to your bill.  This coupon cannot be used twice or split over visits. The expiration date of this coupon is in two months.

I am also told that the coupon lexically equates “discount” with “service” as in “we will serve you at 10% lower price”.

The coupon is interesting because it signals that there seems to be some real price competition among hard currency shops in the capital. These shops not only cater to foreigners, but also to North Koreans with sufficient forex balances, so they don’t just have to compete against each other, but also with the black market.

Do other readers have any experience with discount coupons in the DPRK, or is this a relatively new phenomenon?

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ROK seeks to gain greater control of sanctioned cash flows to DPRK

May 25th, 2011

According to KBS:

South Korean firms doing trade with North Korea must will soon make payments only at government-designated banks.

The Unification Ministry said it will revise the law on inter-Korean cooperation and exchange to this effect. It said the measure aims to provide a greater understanding of the monetary flow of inter-Korean trade and secure transparent transactions.

The ministry has announced the qualifications a bank must meet to deal in inter-Korean trade payments and through June third, any of the 18 commercial banks in the country can apply for the designation. Two or three banks will be selected.

The revised law will also state in clearer terms the conditions and procedures relating to cross-border exchanges. It further calls for obtaining government approval when South Korean residents wish to transfer money to families in North Korea or when overseas chapters of South Korean firms seek to invest in North Korea.

The South Korean government is also seeking to gain control over remittances to families of DPRK defectors.

Read the full story here:
Designated Banks to Process S-N Trade Payments
KBS
2011-05-25

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DPRK appears to be manufacturing laptops

May 25th, 2011

Martyn Williams reports in PC World (2011-5-25):

North Korea might be an unlikely place to find a PC factory, but the country has started manufacturing three models of computers, according to a recent state TV report.

The three computers consist of two for educational use and one for office use.

The educational computers each run the same custom software and come in two versions: one is a netbook-sized laptop, and the other is a bland-looking box with a keyboard and mouse, that’s designed to be connected to a television.

“You can use multimedia educational materials,” said Pae Myong-sok, a factory representative interviewed in the TV report. “For example, you can view elementary and middle schools textbooks, do intellectual training exercises, view various types of dictionaries, edit documents and even learn foreign languages.”

The office computer is a laptop and runs productivity software and includes a web browser, Pae said. It’s also netbook-sized and has dual USB ports — something that’s not included on the educational machines — for data transfer. The battery lasts about two and a half hours, the report said.

No other specifications or details were offered in the report. The operating system was unclear from the TV images, but it didn’t appear to be Windows. North Korea has developed its own version of Linux called “Red Star” and it’s possible the computers are running that.

“The devices and programs of these computers were designed and developed purely using our own expertise,” said Pae. “These computers have low prime cost but are designed to carry out all the necessary functions without difficulty.”

The factory was identified as belonging to the “Information Technology Institute.” No other affiliation was provided, but the name matches a unit of Pyongyang’s Korea Computer Center (KCC). The KCC is one of North Korea’s centers for information technology study and learning and has successfully marketed a handful of software applications overseas.

I have posted the segment from the North Korean evening news that features the computers to YouTube.  You can watch it here (2011-3-10).

A reader later pointed out on Martyn’s blog that the DPRK computer is identical to a discount computer sold in the USA. According to Martyn:

Son has posted a comment noting the similarity of the office laptop to a $99 netbook sold in CVS stores in the U.S. The netbook carries the Sylvania brand of Siemens.

From the looks of the two machines, they are identical. It’s either the same or similar basic hardware.

The North Korean manufacturer could be supplying them to Sylvania, or both companies could be buying the laptops from another manufacturer, likely in China, and customizing them. (Just because the Sylvania model runs Windows CE, it doesn’t necessarily mean the North Korean laptop has the same software.)

Below are pictures of the two computers via North Korea Tech:

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KWP worried about deterioration of information controls…

May 24th, 2011

According to the Daily NK:

…Now, The Daily NK has confirmed the existence of this initiative to control information circulation in the form of an education document for Party cadres, ‘On thoroughly eliminating anti-socialist phenomena in every area of community life’.

The 15-page document appears to have been published by the Chosun Workers’ Party’s own publishing house in advance of the Party Delegates’ Conference in September last year for circulation by the Propaganda and Agitation Department of the Workers’ Party.

In it, the Party states three broad goals: “We must pull out the roots of individualism and selfishness, and firmly arm ourselves with group awareness”; “We must thoroughly eliminate the illusion of money and the illusion of foreign currency”: “We must battle fiercely against the invasion of imperialist ideology and culture.”

The document even outlines the schedule and approach which should be adopted for lectures on the subject, ordering that Party cadres receive a 90-minute and Party members and laborers a 60-minute lecture on these ‘anti-socialist phenomena’ occurring both in the community and in their specific work area, methods of discovering those phenomena and ways of eliminating them.

“You must find and explicate cases of the phenomenon of failing to concentrate on the revolutionary mission and trading for the purposes of earning money; the phenomenon of diverting state organ and enterprises’ materials and products or focusing solely on the organ, the phenomenon of working-age women who fail to attend work in order to trade etc.”

It states, “Now, cadres and laborers are getting caught up in the illusion of money and foreign currency, meaning that their economic activities, morals, and worse still their ideology, are lacking.”

This frank admission of the problems being caused by illicit capitalist trade and the need to stop it are clear evidence of the worries felt by the authorities.

It states, “We must absolutely not allow the selling in markets of items which encroach upon the state or public good, including those which spread undesirable trends, products produced by state factories and enterprises, products unhygienic or otherwise threatening to human health.”

“Transferring imported goods to private traders and earning money through their sale in the market on the part of trade and foreign currency earning enterprises, which also helps the market to develop, must be eliminated, and selling by the entire state sector must be reinvigorated.”

Again, later, it reaffirms, “The phenomena of promoting the transferring of products to private traders, thereby earning money secretly and promoting this secret trade, must be thoroughly eliminated.”

This, the documents claim, are serious issues because the outside world is striving to undermine the socialist system of the country, with the ‘imperialists’ ideological and cultural invasion capturing the people and leaving them “ugly beings knowing nothing but themselves and nothing but money, an animalistic existence.”

Elsewhere, the document also attacks the circulation of foreign information, asserting, “Here the important thing is to thoroughly eliminate the circulation of, watching of and listening to of these foul recordings. In particular, we must avert the eyes of housewives and young people.”

The circulation of such information, it alleges, must be stopped “so as not to become tangled in the enemies’ psychological scheming” and to cease the “circulation of capitalist ideology and culture.”

To which end, it concludes, “The role and responsibility of the Party and enterprise cadres must be enhanced, while community watch guards and security under people’s units must be strengthened.”

Read the full story here:
Party Reveals Worries over Foreign Wind
Daily NK
Choi Cheong Ho and Jeong Jae Sung
5/25/2011

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Lankov on the rise of China and Korean unification

May 23rd, 2011

Andrei Lankov recently wrote a paper on the rise of China and the implications for Korean unification for a Korean-language publication.

You can download a PDF of the paper in English here.

Abstract
The rise of China can be seen as the single most important strategic problem which Korea faces currently. In the late 1970s, China entered a phase of high-speed economic growth, which still seems to be almost unstoppable. According to World Bank estimates, the average annual increase in China’s GDP in the years 2000-2009 was 9.7%. This is the world’s highest growth rate. Perhaps for the first time in modern history, the country which has the highest growth rate is the country with the largest population.

The future of Korea depends on its ability to find how to handle the Chinese challenge. It is going to be difficult, but there are hopeful signs, too: Chinese political elite may be remarkably realist, even Machiavellian, in their outlook but also rational and averse to adventurism. This gives Korea some hope that compromises with China will be possible. Without such compromises no unification of Korea will be possible in a new world where China is bound to be a major player.

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ROK moves to control inter-Korean remittances

May 23rd, 2011

UPDATE (2011-5-26): Defectors are not too happy with plans by the South Korean government to get control over remittances to the DPRK.  According to the Korea Herald:

North Korean defectors here are strongly opposing a government plan to require them to gain approval before making remittances to relatives in the cash-strapped state.

They say that the approval process could put them and their loved ones in the North in dangerous situations and make brokers demand more money for delivering funds.

They also say that since their remittances are made through “complicated multi-layered” procedures, it would be difficult to detect those sending money without approval.

On Tuesday, the Unification Ministry put on public notice a revision bill mandating defectors to obtain approval when remitting more than a certain amount of money, with the cut-off figure yet to be set. Officials said the revision is aimed at “securing transparency in inter-Korean exchanges.”

“We have been scrimping on food, clothes and others to send some of the hard-earned money ― at most 1 million won ($917) ― to help our family, not the North Korean regime. The approval system is wrong,” a 43-year-old North Korean defector, who has taken asylum here since 1997, told The Korea Herald, declining to be named.

“Our remittances have been transparently made and we always check whether our relatives have received the money by talking directly to them by cellphone. Through the talks, albeit brief, defectors tell them the truth about Korean society and help enlighten them and bring about change there.”

He also pointed out that the planned system may not be effective.

“All these have so far taken place secretly. Who would ever like to willingly tell the authorities about their remittances at the risk of revealing their identities and those of their relatives in the North? One out of 10 may be willing,” he said.

A Unification Ministry official said that the government will carry out the approval system after taking into account opinions from the defectors and experts.

“There has been controversy over the legitimacy of their remittances, which has stemmed from the absence of government procedures over them. The system is aimed at systemizing their sending of the money to the North,” the official said.

“We will consider various opinions including those regarding the amount of money for which they should secure approval and measures to protect their family in the North.”

North Korean defectors usually send their money through ethnic Chinese people here, who ask their Chinese relatives or acquaintances inside the North or near the North Korea-China border to deliver the money. The brokers are known to take 30 percent of the total remittances.

According to a survey by a private Seoul-based group, which was released early this year, nearly half of North Korean defectors here have sent money to their families in the North.

The survey by the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights found that 49.5 percent said they had sent money to their families in the North, while 46 percent said they had not and 4.5 percent said that they have no family there.

The survey was conducted on 396 North Korean defectors residing in the South, aged 15 or older, from Dec. 14-31 last year.

Seoul officials estimate that North Korean defectors’ annual remittances amount to $10 million.

Some people say the remittances could stimulate North Koreans’ longing for the affluent life south of the heavily fortified border. Others, however, are concerned that the money could get into the wrong hands in the notoriously autocratic regime.

The number of North Korean defectors living here stands at 21,294 as of April. It is expected to rise as food shortages and oppression continue in the reclusive state.

And according to Yonhap:

The Unification Ministry has announced its plans to revise a law that would require defectors to receive government approval before sending money to their families.

The ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, said the move is aimed at legalizing the money transfers and increasing their transparency.

Defectors said their families in the North usually receive some 70 percent of their remittances as brokers who arrange the deals take some 30 percent of the money as a fee.

The ministry said it would give some wiggle room for defectors by exempting them from receiving mandatory approval in case they remit a certain amount of money for their families to support them or to help them seek medical treatment.

Details have yet to be arranged. The revision process would take months as other government ministries must screen any changes before the new law’s submission to the legislature for approval.

The new revision is expected to take effect as early as the second half of next year.

The move “is not trying to regulate humanitarian money remittance,” a government official said on condition of anonymity, citing office policy.

Still, the proposed move triggered a backlash from defectors, who fear that the government regulation could complicate the process of money remittance and jeopardize their families in the North.

“I have no choice but to give money to family members in the North as they live on the money I send to them, but I cannot give any information to the government,” a defector said, asking not to be identified, citing security concerns for family members in the North.

ORIGINAL POST (2011-5-23): According to the Korea Herald:

South Koreans who wish to send money to their families in North Korea will be required to get government approval in advance under a revised law, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said Monday.

All remittances between the South and North, including investments or aid to the North from an overseas corporation set up by a South Korean citizen, will require government approval, according to the revised law on inter-Korean exchange and cooperation, aimed at increasing transparency of the cross-border exchanges.

So far, only payments for commercial transactions were subject to obtain government permission in advance, raising concerns that it was hard to track other kinds of cash flow into North Korea.

North Korean defectors who have settled in the South or members of families separated by the border after the 1950-53 Korean War have occasionally remitted money to their kin in the impoverished North through bank accounts in third countries such as China.

But under the new law taking effect in the second half of this year, South Koreans are obliged to get government approval before sending or passing on inheritance to their family in the North. There will be exceptions, however, for remittances of small amounts for basic living costs or medical costs of their kin in the North.

If a corporation established by a South Korean citizen in a third country plans to invest in the North, the South Korean proprietor will now have to report to the Seoul government in advance.

South Koreans planning to send goods purchased in third countries to the North will also have to attain government permission.

A South Korean Christian aid group recently sent flour, bought in China through a Chinese nongovernmental organization called Amity Foundation, to North Korea.

South Korean companies trading with entities in the North will also be required to register, under the new law.

“Between 700 and 800 companies are believed to have records of trade with the North so far, but only 580 have been confirmed so far in a survey conducted after the May 25 regulation (on inter-Korean exchanges) last year,” a ministry official said.

“The others have either stopped doing business in the North or have gone out of contact, making it hard for the government to keep track.”

The ministry plans to set up a state-funded agency to support inter-Korean nongovernmental exchanges at all times.

So far, the ministry has allocated financial aid to support inter-Korean exchange to selected non-profit organizations once or twice a year.

Previous reports indicated that the level of remittances from the ROK to the DPRK can reach USD$10m per year.

Read the full story here:
Seoul tightens rules on cash flow to North Korea
Korea Herald
Kim So-hyun
2011-5-23

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KJI’s no 8. trip to China

May 23rd, 2011

UPDATE 7 (2011-5-30): According to the Choson Ilbo, the Hwanggumpyong Island groundbreaking ceremony was cancelled without any announcement.

UPDATE 6 (2011-5-27): According to the Irrawaddy, KJI’s delegation visit to Beijing overlapped with a Myanmar delegation.  Maybe the two met?

UPDATE 5 (2011-5-25): According the Choson Ilbo, Kim Jong-il’s security in China is facing an all new challenge: Yoku!

UPDATE 4 (2011-5-25): According to Yonhap and the Choson Ilbo, Kim Jong-il’s consort, Kim Ok, is traveling with him.

UPDATE 3 (2011-5-25): KJI is now in Beijing for talks with PRC President Hu Jintao (Yonhap).  According to a colleague, Xinhua claims KJI also met with Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew in Beijing.

UPDATE 2 (2011-5-24): China confirms that Kim Jong-il is in the PRC (Nanjing on Tuesday).  China usually waits until KJI has returned to the DPRK before announcing his visits.  See the Wall Street Journal: China Real Time, Yonhap, AFP.

UPDATE 1 (2011-5-23): More coverage is coming out on KJI’s trip to the PRC:

1. Aidan Foster-Carter writes about Kim Jong-il’s previous trips to China in 38 North.

2. China claims Kim’s trip is focused on economic issues (WSJ):  “China invited North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, who began his seventh trip there on Friday, to learn more about its economic development, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told South Korean President Lee Myung-bak Sunday.”

3. PRC-DPRK trade up significantly in the last year (Bloomberg): “North Korea’s trade with China jumped 30 percent last year even after the United Nations stepped up sanctions following its second nuclear test in May 2009, according to China’s commerce ministry.”

4. Yonhap reports that Kim Jong-il will possibly attend a groundbreaking ceremony for development of the Hwanggumpyong Island (see more here) .  This ceremony is supposedly scheduled for May 28th.

5. The Hankyoreh has an update of KJI’s travel itinerary as of today.

ORIGINAL POST (2011-5-20): This morning there were dozens of conflicting stories about whether Kim Jong-il and/or Kim jong-un had traveled to China.  Right now, the emerging view seems to be that Kim Jong-il is definitely in China and Kim Jong-un is possibly (probably not) in China.

So let’s back up a couple of days.  Kim Jong-il was just reported to have given on the spot guidance visits to the Ryongjon (룡전과수농장) and Toksong  (덕성과수농장) Fruit Farms on May 18th.  The Ryongjon Fruit Farm is located in Pukchon County (북청군, 40.172649°, 128.338476°) and the Toksong Fruit Farm is located in neighboring Toksong County (덕성군, 40.325806°, 128.262423°).  Those are the coordinates of the farms themselves if you want to check them out on Google Earth.

These farms lie on railway lines that indicate KJI was traveling north to cross into China at either Manpho (만포시) or Namyang, Onsong County (남양로동지구, 온성군).

So was Kim Jong-un traveling with Kim Jong-il?  Maybe, but I don’t think so…

KCNA reports from Kim’s guidance tours:

[Kim Jong-il] was accompanied by Kim Ki Nam and Choe Thae Bok, members of the Political Bureau and secretaries of the C.C., WPK, Thae Jong Su, alternate member of the Political Bureau and secretary of the C.C., WPK, and Kwak Pom Gi, chief secretary of the South Hamgyong Provincial Committee of the WPK.

Now I know that Kim Jong-un has reportedly accompanied his father on guidance trips without being listed as part of the official entourage and that he could have been omitted from official coverage precisely to hide his presence on the train to China.  In these situations I generally look to occam’s razor for the answer, and the razor says “no”.  Now I will just wait to be proven wrong.

The Wall Street Journal has more.

Here is coverage of the trip in the Washington Post.

Here is a headline (but no story) from Yonhap.

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