North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far East Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 07-8-22-1

The Bank of Korea released a report on August 17 that details economic estimates on a variety of sectors in North Korea. Overall, North Korea’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 1.1 percent during 2006, the first time since 1999 that the North has failed to increase its GDP. Inclement weather was one factor that played into a fall in agricultural production, and there also appears to have been little progress in the construction of public works in the country. Overall, North Korean GNI was 2.9 percent of that in the South, with per capita GNI at 1,108 USD, 6 percent of the 18,372 USD per capita GNI in South Korea.

The entire economy of the DPRK is approximately 1/35th that of the South, with the Gross National Income (GNI) a mere 1/17th the level seen in the ROK. This shows a growing divide between the two Koreas, as the comparisons in the previous year were 1/33rd and 1/16th, respectively. Due to the North Korean nuclear issues and other foreign relations problems faced during 2006, a worsening of diplomatic relations with other countries, energy shortages and other economic woes befell the North, putting the entire economy in a difficult situation.

The North showed a weakening of the agricultural and forestry industries, increasing production by a mere 2.4 percent, 2.6 percent down from 2005. Corn and other cereal production grew by 7 percent, but rice was down 6.4 percent, and bean production was down 6.6 percent from the year before, leaving overall grain output down 3.6 percent. On the other hand, shellfish and crustacean harvests grew by 1.5 percent, while timber and livestock harvests remained unchanged.

On the mining front, coal and other non-metal mined resources showed promising increases, but production of lead, zinc, and copper fell by 1.7 percent, compared to the 3.5 percent growth posted in the previous year. Despite promising increases in production of manufactured goods and growth in the chemical and heavy industries in 2005, last year North Korean production growth rates in these fields fell flat at a mere 0.4 percent, increasing production rates of fibers, clothing and shoes, but turning out less kitchenware and food-related products. Coal and fuel products looked favorable, but fabricated metals and machine parts, as well as nonferrous metal products grew at a rate of 1.1 percent, down from 5.4 percent.

Gas-fired electrical generation was up 17 percent, while hydroelectric power grew only 2.7 percent, falling from 4.4 percent in 2005. Other infrastructure projects were also on the decline, with only 49 km of road paved in 2006.

The number of foreign tourists declined, with visitors to Kumgang Mountain falling from 366,000 in 2005 to only 265,000 last year, adding to the 21.8 percent decline in the food and lodging sector, but the transportation and communication sector grew by 5.1 percent, leading to an overall gain of 1.1 percent in the service industry.

The gap in overseas trade between the two Koreas increased from 182-fold to 212-fold as North Korean foreign trade fell off 5.2 percent. Imports in the North were up 2.3%, although seafood imports were down 48.4 percent. The slack was made up by a 34.1 percent increase in the import of plastics, a 31.2 percent increase in imported chemical goods, and a 12.4 percent increase in imported machinery.

During 2006, inter-Korean exchanges grew 27.8 percent, reaching 13.5 billion USD. South Korean exports to the North grew 16 percent as Seoul increased rice and fertilizer aid, and exports to the Kaesong Industrial Complex grew. On the other hand, North-South cooperative projects grew 52.7 percent as South Korea increasingly imported North Korean zinc, sand, and other natural resources.

In order to give some perspective to the North Korean economic data, the Bank of Korea offered the following comparisons:

DPRK/ROK/Ratio
Population (thousand) 23,079/48.297/2.1
Economic Growth (2006) -1.1%/5.0%
Nominal GNI (100 million USD) 256/8,873/34.7
Per Capita GNI (USD) 1,108/18,372/16.6
Exports (100 million USD) 9.5/3,254.6/343.8
Imports (100 million USD) 20.5/3,93.8/151.0
Coal Production (10,000 tons) 2,468/280/0.11
Electrical Use (10,000 kW) 782/6,551/8.4
Electrical Production Capacity (100 mill. KW) 225/3,812/16.9
Petroleum Imports (10,000 bbl) 384/88,843/231.4
Cereal Production (10,000 tons) 448.3/530.0/1.2
Rice Production (10,000 tons) 189.4/468.0/2.5
Seafood Harvest (10,000 tons) 92.3/303.3/3.3
Iron Ore Mining (10,000 tons) 504.1/22.7/0.05
Nonferrous Metals Mining (10,000 tons) 8.6/187.7/21.8
Automobile Production (10,000) 0.44/384.0/872.8
Steel (10,000 tons) 118.1/4,843.3/41.0
Cement (10,000 tons) 615.5/4,920.9/8.0
Fertilizer (10,000 tons) 45.4/318.3/7.0
Chemical Products (10,000 tons) 2.9/145.7/50.2
Railways (km) 5,235/3,392/0.6
Roads (km) 25,544/102,061/4.0
Port Loading Capacity (10,000 tons) 3,700/69,213/18.7
Shipping Capacity (10,000 tons) 90.4/1,180.2/13.1

AFP
8/17/2007

The United States is providing 100,000 dollars in humanitarian aid to flood-stricken North Korea, the State Department said Friday.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) would provide 50,000 dollars each to two US non governmental organizations operating in North Korea — Mercy Corps and Samaritan’s Purse, department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

“The intention is that the money would be used to provide blankets, shelter materials, water containers and other supplies to those in need,” he told reporters.

Almost 300 people were dead or missing in the North Korean floods, according to an aid agency quoting official figures in the nuclear-armed hardline communist nation.

Official media in the reclusive state has painted a grim picture of inundated crops and homes, flooded factories and mines and washed-out roads.

UN agencies said on Friday that half of North Korea’s main health centres have been submerged by floods and warned that the situation in the country could deteriorate unless aid arrives rapidly.

The United States, together with China, Russia, Japan and South Korea, have promised to provide the North Koreans aid and security and diplomatic guarantees if it scraps its nuclear weapons program.

But any flood relief provided by the United States would not be linked to a planned gradual shipment of one million tonnes of fuel or its equivalent to North Korea if it completely dismantles its nuclear weapons program, McCormack had said.

North Korea has already got 50,000 tonnes of fuel aid for closure of its key nuclear reactor under the six-party nuclear talks.

October 20-27, 2007 (Beijing/Pyongyang)
GPI Consulting

GPI Consulting (Netherlands) is one of the few western companies that has done an audit of the DPRK’s IT capabilitites and has published about them.

They are organizing an IT delegation to visit the DPRK this October.  Here is their marketing flyer and itinerary: NK-IT-tour.pdf

From the Marketing Flyer:

North Korea offers interesting business opportunities in several fields, such as software development, production of computer games, animation and cartoons, data entry en digitization. In order to provide detailed information about the IT opportunities in North Korea, a unique IT Study Tour will take place from 20 – 27 October 2007.

The trip to North Korea will focus on offshoring in the field of IT and BPO (Business Process Out-sourcing). We expect participants from IT- and software organizations that are investigating offshoring, or from consultants researching new offshore locations. Companies interested in exploring a new potential export market are also welcome to join the tour.

Europe still lacks sufficient knowledge about the promising North Korean IT sector. The goal of the business mission is to give the participants detailed information about offshoring, and especially about the opportunities in North Korea. We will strive to have participants from large, small and medium sized companies taking part in the IT study tour.

In order to make a business trip of 7 days attractive, the delegation will visit various companies in Pyongyang in the field of IT, animation, cartoons, computer games and BPO. The business mission will have an informal character with a visit to a university and also with attention to cultural and tourist elements. The participants of the tour will meet in China (Beijing); after returning from North Korea, an extension of the stay in China is possible.

The organizer of this mission is KCC (Korea Computer Center), a major IT services provider in North Korea with offices in several cities, including Pyongyang and Beijing. The European contact for this business mission will be Mr. Paul Tjia, founder and director of GPI Consultancy, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.  Established in 1995, GPI Consultancy is a specialized Dutch consultancy firm in the field of offshore sourcing. It is regularly involved in IT study tours to various offshore countries in Asia.

European Business Association
September 24-27, 2007

The European Business Association (EBA) in Pyongyang and DPRK Chamber of Commerce are orgaizing a booth for European business at the upcoming international trade fair in Pyongyang.  European companies are invited to make use of this opportunity to introduce their business to the North Korean market.

European companies interested in taking advantage of this opportunity are invited to visit the EBA website www.eba-pyongyang.org – please click through to membership for the statutes. The membership fee of 500 Euro will include the following services for companies who would not send their own representative to the trade fair:

• Poster display (maximum size DIN A2)
• Distribution of flyers (maximum size DIN A4)
  Feedback for Korean inquiries by e-mail: any contact request and any inquiry by a Korean company will be registered in a special format and will be supplied asap by   e-mail to your company.
• Photos documenting the participation of your company in the fair.

If a representative will take part, the joint European booth is of course open for him/her to be used during the fair and EBA will support and assist you actively in making contacts and business meetings with potential Korean partners. According to a special arrangement between the EBA Pyongyang and the DPRK Chamber of Commerce, the deadline for visa application has been extended for European businesses to August 20, 2007.

Learn more here

Institute for Far Easter Studies
NK Brief No. 07-8-14-1

The second inter-Korean summit meeting is coming up soon, scheduled to open on August 28 in Pyongyang, and interest is building regarding discussion on economic cooperation. It is true that the North is prioritizing political and military issues in order to shore up its government by normalizing relations with the United States. However, considering its serious economic woes, the ability of South Korea to offer a ‘gift package’ can significantly influence the success or failure of this summit.

It is not yet clear how economic cooperation will fit into the agenda, but Seoul and Pyongyang have been constantly discussing this issue, so some insight has been given. In particular, the ‘consumer’ North has been referring to domestic and international cooperation, and through Pyongyang’s requests, some clarity has been added to what goals could unfold during the upcoming meeting.

Energy Sector

The North Korean economy is saddled with severe shortages of electricity and fuel oil, causing production to slow and therefore stagnating consumption, putting the country into an ongoing vicious circle of economic depression. North Korea possesses facilities to produce 7.7 million kW of steam- and hydro-electric power, but in reality is incapable of operating these facilities at more than 30%.

The opinion that expansion of North Korea’s electrical infrastructure is necessary, not only for the North, but also for South Korea, is gaining strength. South Korean projects to develop North Korean mines and import its coal have been delayed due to a lack of electrical power. In the future, enterprises looking to set up in North Korea will also require a steady supply of electricity.

In what way the two Koreas will cooperate on energy is not yet known, but North Korea is sticking to its demand for light-water nuclear reactors. If construction were restarted on the reactors begun by the now-defunct Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), North Korea could quickly have not only the energy production amount currently available, but an additional 2 million kW, as well.

North Korea’s power facilities are in a state of deterioration, but the number of facilities in the North are adequate for the current state of the economy, so a plan for the restoration of generation and transmission facilities, or the 2 million kW of electrical power offered by the South Korean government two years ago could be considered sufficient.

Natural Resource and Infrastructure Development

One other highly probable agenda item on inter-Korean economic cooperation will be development of natural resources. This is because a model in which North Korea’s relatively abundant underground natural resources are developed, and in which these resources being used by South Korean businesses, would create a ‘win-win’ result for both Seoul and Pyongyang.

According to a report given by the Korea Resources Corporation at a conference last year, North Korea possesses upward of forty different valuable minerals, including iron-ore. Analysis of these North Korean resources shows that a considerable amount of South Korea’s 40 trillion won (430 billion USD) worth of mineral imports per year could be brought in from North Korea instead.

As development projects in North Korea’s graphite mines are already underway, and the import of North Korean anthracite is being considered in order to meet quickly growing demand for charcoal in the South, cooperation in the natural resource sector appears to be one of the core points to inter-Korean economic cooperation.

As for North Korea’s railways, the heart of the country’s distribution infrastructure, completion of the section of track on the Kyungui Line between Kaesong Station and Moonsan Station, as well as the section of the East Sea Line between Mt. Kumgang Station and Jejin Station, means that the infrastructure for regular service between the two countries is now in place, although talks regarding the details of such regular service are not being held.

If regular service on these two lines between North and South Korea can be achieved, expensive transportation costs can be reduced, and of course, in the future, connection of the railway with continental rail networks such as the Trans-Siberian Rail and the Trans-China Rail would help to enable the Korean Peninsula to emerge as the hub of North East Asian distribution.

Furthermore, considering the fact that North Korea’s mining facilities and technology, as well as its ports, loading facilities, and other transportation infrastructure, are severely lacking, a plan linking development of natural resources to projects developing infrastructure also appears viable. It is also already known, to some extent, the nature of North Korean needs in its infrastructure sector, and if this upcoming summit closes successfully, it is expected that an inventory of these needs will become more concrete.

Vitalizing Kaesong Industrial Complex

The Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) is also an important undertaking. At the moment, a problem has arisen concerning the construction of a second KIC, but even if only the originally planned 26.4 million square-meter complex is built, the fact is that currently the first 3.3 million square-meter stage is complete, and considering that it employs North Korean labor, this is no easy feat. Companies moving into the KIC are asking that easy communication with South Korea and simplified import procedures be prioritized.

Yonhap
Lee Joon-seung
8/13/2007

Repairing North Korea’s existing power generation infrastructure is an effective way to help North Korea cope with its chronic power shortage, a South Korean state-run think tank said Monday.

The Korea Energy Economic Institute (KEEI) said refurbishing North Korea’s existing infrastructure may be a more effective way to boost electric power than building new thermal generators and nuclear reactors.

South Korean Ministry of Unification
Serial No.851 (July 30 to August 05, 2007)

Internal Affairs

• According to the report by the Central Broadcasting Station on July 30, North Korea held the Election of Deputies to the Provincial (Municipality Directly under Central Authority), City (District) and County People’s Assemblies of the DPRK on July 29 and announced the result through the report by the Central Election Guidance Committee.
• According to the reports by the Central Broadcasting Station from August 1 to 4, Chairman Kim Jongil inspected a sub-unit of KPA Unit 4318, the Unit 136, and the Unit 273.
• The Central Broadcasting Station reported on August 2 that cooperative farms in Dahungdan-gun, Yanggang-do, are focusing on potato farming.

Inter-Korean Affairs

• According to the reports by the Central Broadcasting Station and Pyongyang Broadcasting Services on August 3, the spokesperson of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland announced a statement on August 2 to criticize the U.S.-ROK joint military exercise Ulchi Focus Lens from August 20 to 31.
• The Rodong Daily reported on August 4 that on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s work “Let Us Carry out the Great Leader Comrade Kim IL Sung’s Instructions for National Reunification,” North Korea held a Pyongyang city report session on August 3 and published a commemorative editorial on August 4 on the Rodong Daily.

Foreign Affairs

• The standing committee chairman of the Supreme People’s Assembly Kim Young-nam made a formal visit to Algeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia from July 24 to 31.
• North Korean delegates led by Minister of Foreign Affairs Pak Ui-chun visited the Philippines to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum from July 28 to August 2.
• With the U.S. House’s adoption of the resolution on comfort women, North Korea is continuously criticizing Japan, maintaining Japan’s raising the abduction issue is causing trouble in the six party talks.
• North Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Pak Ui-chun met South Korean counterpart Song Min-soon during the ASEAN Regional Forum and reaffirmed that the abolition of the U.S. hostile policy against North Korea should be the precondition of the implementation of the second step of February 13 Agreement. 

Institute for Far Eastern Studies
NK Brief No. 07-8-7-1
2007-8-7

According to a recent report from a North Korean insider, the border city of Sinuiju, in North Pyongan Province, was redesignated as a ‘Special Economic Zone’ in the first part of this year, and accordingly, full-fledged city development has been underway since last June, including the relocation to the city of 3000 families from Pyongyang.

The “NK Chosun” reported that this development was revealed by a North Korean official during a meeting with an associate in Dandong while on a recent visit to China. The official was quoted as stating, “Pyongyang citizens are being temporarily transferred to Sinuiju because they are ideologically prepared.” The official went on to share that the Pyongyang residents being moved to Sinuiju are the laborers that will work in the industrial zone, state security officials, police, and their families.

According to the associate in Dandong, “due to rumors of the relocation of Pyongyang residents, real estate prices in the Sinuiju area are skyrocketing.” While DPRK authorities are instituting a plan to relocate Pyongyang residents to Sinuiju, at the same time 3000 Sinuiju families are being banished from the city. Rumor has it that Sinuiju police and security forces have begun identifying residents with problematic blood lines and those considered to have ideological problems and announcing lists of ‘purgees’.

Even as large scale aggregate gathering at the mouth of the Yalu River is growing, all residents living in the vicinity of the Sinuiju train station were removed and barbed wire and dirt walls were set up around the outskirts of the area following its designation as a ‘Special Economic Zone’.

One DPRK source in Dandong stated, “The past plan for the Sinuiju Special Economic Zone promoted by Chinese [businessman] Yang Bin aimed to make money through a casino and entertainment facilities, but this time, according to the directives of Chairman of the National Defense Commission Kim Jong Il, a city is to be constructed that can fulfill the role of Kaesong Industrial Complex as well as Rajin-Sunbong .”

Institute for Far East Studies (IFES)
8/3/2007

Pyongwha Motors, the South Korean company producing automobiles in North Korea will expand into truck manufacturing from this year. According to an official from the company, the manufacturer, currently producing six models, plans to begin truck production within the year, and is working together with Hwacheon Motors and other enterprises in the Chinese city of Shenyang.

Pyongwha Motors currently manufactures three models in the ‘Bukkuki’ (Cuckoo) SUV series, a pickup truck, the mid-size sedan ‘Wuiparam II’ (Whistle II), and the minibus ‘Samchunri’ (Throughout Korea). As of yet, the company has not decided what type of truck it will produce. The company’s truck production is a result of demand in North Korea. Farms, organizations, factories and other consumers have been asking Pyongwha Motors to “produce a truck that will allow a little bit more to be loaded” onboard, and the company has been listening.

An official from the company stated, “if truck production gets underway, last year’s production of 600 to 700 vehicles will be surpassed and more than 1000 vehicles [will be produced] this year,” and went on to explain that the next step is to decide on an exact model through cooperation between North Korean and Chinese counterparts.

Pyongwha Motors, operated through an equity joint venture between South Korea’s Pyongwha Motors Group and North Korea’s Chosun People’s Leisure Group, first produced an automobile based on a model of an Italian Fiat, and in its second stage of operations, produced SUVs and pickup trucks. Today, the company is in its third stage of operations, producing minibuses, trucks, and mid-size sedans.

Yonhap
8/1/2007

Pyeonghwa Motors Corp., a South Korean automaker with exclusive rights to produce cars for the North Korean market, said Wednesday it has been in talks with Chinese automaker Brilliance Automotive Holdings Ltd. to assemble trucks in North Korea, a company official said Wednesday.

In North Korea, Pyeonghwa Motors is assembling some 600-700 vehicles, including sport-utility ones, sedans and mini buses, a year at its plant in Nampo, near the capital Pyongyang.

The North has requested Pyeonghwa Motors to produce trucks for farmers and factory workers, the official said.

“We will soon select a truck model after consultations with North Korean and Chinese sides,” the official said on the condition of anonymity, citing protocol.

If the North Korean plant begins production of trucks, annual vehicle sales of Pyonghwa Motors in North Korea will exceed 1,000 units, the official said.

The North’s economy went into a steep decline in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to reports released by South Korea’s Bank of Korea.

However, since the late 1990s, the North Korean economy has been growing again, helped by an influx of foreign aid and better weather, the South’s central bank said.