North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-3-22-1
3/22/2008

Recently, North Korea passed a measure prohibiting women younger then 49 from selling goods in markets, leading to clashes between police enforcing the rule and younger women wanting to work in markets.

The March 19th newsletter from ‘Good Friends’, an organization providing aid for North Korea, reported that on February 5th in Haeju, South Hwanghae Province, women who were not allowed to enter the local market and so were selling goods on a nearby corner physically clashed and police. This reportedly led to the arrest and detention of 9 people.

The newsletter reported, “The women held at the police station were subjected to harsh interrogation as to ‘who was the ringleader’, and after being subjected to four days of torture, one who could no longer hold out confessed to being the ringleader and was sent to a detention center, while the remaining women were all released.”

North Korean authorities announced the measure restricting women under 49 from selling goods in markets after December 1st last year, and that measure is being enforced not only in Pyongyang, but in rural areas as well.

According to Good Friends, “Just like other cities, Haeju City has received absolutely no food rations since March,” and “Women from households barely managing regular meals through market trading are being reduced to the weakest level by North Korean authorities’ prohibition on trading.”

It follows that in Haeju City, either authorities recognize that if these women can not sell in the markets their families will starve to death and so turn a blind eye to their activities, or these women, prevented from selling in markets, will continue to clash with authorities.

The newsletter also reported, “On March 3, in Chungjin City, North Hamkyung Province, organized protests by women prevented from market activities by the new regulations broke out, and Chungjin City authorities are now allowing all women, with no exception, to sell goods in markets.”

Immediately following organized protests by these women, Chungjin City officials reported the disturbances, but no policies to deal with the issue were forthcoming, and so it appears that all women, with no exception, are now allowed to conduct market activities.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Bfrief No. 08-3-13-1
3/13/2008

International fuel and food prices are skyrocketing, while the cost of Chinese goods continues to rise, so that this so-called ‘triple-threat’ is sending shockwaves through the North Korean economy. In this year’s New Year’s Joint Editorial, North Korea championed the banner of a ‘strong and prosperous nation’, and declared that this year would focus on the economy, however this ‘triple-threat’ will likely make it extremely difficult for the North to meet its policy goals.

With oil prices peaking at over 110 USD per barrel, if these high oil prices continue, North Korea, which imports crude and refined oil from China, Russia and other countries, will face a growing import burden. In accordance with the February 13th agreement reached through six-party talks, South Korea, the United States and others will provide some heavy fuel oil, and the agreement stipulated the amount of oil to be delivered, rather than the value, so this will not be affected by rising prices. However, this oil does not cover all of the North’s needs, and as for the remaining portion, either the amount imported will have to be reduced, or the North will have no choice but to invest considerably more in fuel. In addition, as a large portion of North Korea’s oil is imported from China, Pyongyang’s trade deficit with its neighbor will also grow.

According to the Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), North Korea imported 523,000 tons of crude oil from China in 2005, 524,000 tons in 2006, and 523,000 tons last year, each year accounting for approximately 25 percent of total oil imports. North Korea’s trade deficit with China has shown a steadily growing trend, reaching 212,330,000 USD in 2004, 588,210,000 USD in 2005, and 764,170,000 USD in 2006. With grain prices also skyrocketing, and North Korea depending largely on China and Thailand for rice and other grain imports, the burden on the North’s economy is growing, and this is one factor in the instability of domestic prices in the DPRK.

According to the Chinese Customs Bureau, North Korea imported 81,041 tons of rice and 53,888 tons of corn last year, increases of 109.9 percent and 37.4 percent, respectively. North Korea’s corn, rice and oil imports from China are subject to market price controls, so that rising international prices directly affect the North’s cost burden. Last year, the price of Chinese goods rose 4.8 percent, recording the largest jump in ten years, and this trend extends to a wide variety of goods. 80 percent of disposable goods in North Korea are produced in China, and rising Chinese prices are directly reflected in North Korean import costs, which is passed on to DPRK citizens.

As North Korea emphasizes the building of its economy, it appears unlikely that residents will feel any direct effects of Pyongyang’s promise to prioritize the stability of its citizens’ livelihoods.

From Reuters…

[Naguib Sawiris, CEO] said he was “astonished” how quickly the North Korean authorities wanted the service to start and he had high hopes for business in the country.

“We firmly believe that in the next three or four years we will be having a couple of million subscribers there and we will be seeing ARPUs in the range of $12 or $15 (a month),” he added.

Sawiris said that of the $400 million the company plans to invest in North Korea over the next three years, about $200 million would probably come in the first year, with $100 million in each of the two subsequent years.

Read the full story here:
Egypt’s OT seeks 100,000 N Korean subscribers from May
Reuters
3/12/2008

…against Japanese encephalitis, meningitis

The one-day campaign on Feb. 29 was a pilot project to study the feasibility of introducing both vaccines to the north’s routine inoculation program, the Seoul-based International Vaccine Institute said in a statement.

Some 3,000 children in Sariwon, south of Pyongyang, received the encephalitis vaccine, while the others in the city of Nampo, southwest of the capital, were administered with a vaccine against Haemophilus influenza type B – a bacteria that causes meningitis, it said.

Read the full story here:
6,000 North Korean children receive vaccines against Japanese encephalitis, meningitis
Associated Press
3/12/2008

…does not sound like very easy job based on the most in-depth media coverage of their operations published in the Washington Post.

The story portrays the sad state of the DPRK’s medical facilities and shows just how much local doctors struggle to serve their patients.  According to Eugene Bell Foundation Chairman Stephen Linton:

“I’ve seen doctors who tried to capture sunlight by reflecting it from a mirror,” [during surgery] he says.

By North Korean standards, [this] patient is fortunate. She’s been given a local anesthetic, which is rare in a country where surgeons routinely etherize patients, strap them down and try to finish the operation before they come to.

and  

Like most hospitals and care centers in North Korea, the facility employs a direct-fluoroscopy machine, an X-ray device that irradiates the patient from behind while the doctor examines an image projected on a fluoroscopic plate of glass between them. “The negative is the doctor’s retina,” says Linton, who frequently admonishes physicians for submitting themselves to the machines’ potentially fatal doses of radiation. Most physicians in North Korea use them regularly, and suffer the consequences. The radiologist at Kosong, for example, has receding gums and low hemoglobin, common signs of radiation sickness. Three of his colleagues have died over the years — one from radiation overdose, another from cancer and a third from tuberculosis.

But the toll poor infrastructure takes on the provision of good health care is only exacerbated by the difficulties the DPRK bureaucracy puts in his way:

Of the 36 NGOs that began operations in North Korea as famine gutted the rural population in the mid-1990s, all but a handful have left in frustration. And Linton is particularly demanding: He insists on delivering his supplies personally, lest they be diverted to another facility or end up on the black market. When government officials balk, Linton refuses to resupply the site. So each of his two resupply visits annually is preceded by lengthy and sometimes rancorous negotiations.

“They say they want to save wear and tear on the vehicles, so they need to cut our sites by a third. Fine. I’ll cut theirs as well. Mary, I’ll need a red marker.”

Most of the cancellations involve small sanatoriums in rural areas — the very sites his donors are so keen to support. Linton suspects his hosts want to avoid those facilities because, relative to the urban care centers, their poor sanitation makes them legitimately hazardous. And the wear-and-tear issue isn’t just a red herring. Spending days crisscrossing the countryside on unpaved roads takes a huge toll on the delegation’s fleet of SUVs — vehicles that, between Linton’s visits, the ministry is allowed to use for its own purposes. In resource-starved North Korea, even government officials must barter to replace broken fan belts and transmissions. The last thing the bureaucrats want is to risk losing a precious automobile.

Linton is also apparently given a curfew when he is required to be back at this guest house in Pyongyang.

It seems Tuberculosis is running rampant at the moment:

South Korean sources suggest that tuberculosis has affected as much as 5 percent of North Korea’s population of 23 million. Linton estimates the Eugene Bell Foundation has treated up to 250,000 patients, 70 percent of whom might have otherwise died.

The whole article is well worth reading.

Donations can be made here.

The full article can be found here:
Giving Until It Hurts
Washington Post
Stephen Glain
3/9/2008, Page W16

Anyone who has spent time visiting North Korea on Google Earth will have noticed the acute shortage of trees.  I am not alone in this observation.  Dr. Lankov recently reported that South Korean tourists to Kaesong also sense this.

Donating trees to the North might sound like a particularly harmless form of aid–all the symbolism of inter-Korean cooperation without the messy politics of monitoring food aid or investment.  But the reality is far more pragmatic:

[H]elping North Korea to plant more trees is one of President Lee’s campaign pledges.

He said the South will send seedlings to the North but no details were given as to whether or when the two Koreas will meet for the forestry project.

The spokesman said when the Kyoto Protocol takes effect, the South can buy the right to emit CO2 from North Korea.(Korea Times)

The South Korean government is not alone in hoping to make money off increasing North Korea’s stock of trees.   Singaporean entrepreneur Richard Savage started a tree farm in the DPRK back in 2002:

Richard Savage kneels in the rich brown earth of a field on the outskirts of Pyongyang and reverentially spreads out the broad, green leaf of a young paulownia tree. The saplings have been in the ground for only a month but already they are a meter high; the first harvest could take place in just five years. Eyes shaded by his black cowboy hat, the Singaporean native gazes down the rows of juvenile trees, each worth thousands of dollars at maturity, with a satisfied grin. The experimental lumber crop has survived the harsh North Korean winter and is flourishing in the loamy soil. “The paulownia loves this,” he says. Glancing at another leafy plant, a new hybrid, he confides, “We’re going to let the Dear Leader name it.” (Time)

UPDATE 2002 (Via Werner Koidl):

The IHT wrote on Oct. 27th, 2006:
“Richard Savage, executive director of Maxgro, a company based in Singapore, is probably one of the most ambitious foreigners in North Korea. He is developing a hardwood plantation on 1,500 hectares, or 3,700 acres, manufactures Snow Pine cigarettes for the local market and is building an eight-story financial center in Pyongyang in a joint venture with the government and other investors.”

Even the North Korean government, though, has noticed that the forests are not as dense as they used to be.  Bradley Martin reported in Bloomberg that Kim Jong il has been pushing a reforestation program for some time:

North Korea’s deforestation program dates back to a 1961 speech by Kim Il Sung. In a mostly mountainous country, he proclaimed, “it is necessary to obtain more land through the remaking of nature.” Not only tidelands but “hills throughout the country and plateaus” should be “brought under the plough,” he said.

“The hills and mountains still had trees, and I never heard of floods,” said Hiroko Saito, a Japanese woman who moved with her Korean husband to North Korea in 1961. Her husband joined one of Kim’s vast mountain work teams in the early 1970s, said Saito, now 66 and back in Japan.

…

Following Kim’s death in 1994 — just before a flood-linked famine gripped the nation — his son and successor Kim Jong Il continued the sacrifice of forest cover until 2000, when he began encouraging reforestation. But the shift hasn’t reversed the damage, and some analysts warn that another famine, close to the scale of the 1990s disaster that may have killed millions of people, might occur as soon as next year.

The government’s agricultural policies launched a cycle of events that lead to greater and greater numbers of trees being culled.  Clearing the forests contributed to seasonal flooding.  The floods exacerbated the food shortage, and pushed people to adopt coping mechanisms to meet their minimum caloric intake for survival.  These coping mechanisms take a toll on what remains of the forests–which exacerbates the flooding.  Repeat annually. This  cycle of destruction has seemingly frustrated Mr. Kim’s plans to bring back the forests:

“For the past few years, I have been telling you to work hard afforestation and have encouraged you at every opportunity.”

“However, an forestation has not met the criteria of authorities and is not going according to plan.”

What Kim Jong Il is trying to say is that, “The reason afforestation is not working is because of the people’s reckless slash-and-burn cultivation, as well as the inefficiency of officers unable to block it.”

After the food crisis in ’95, people uprooted vines and trees to suffice their underfed diets, as well as cultivating illegal farms for food. Further, to save themselves from freezing to death, people used trees as firewood.(Daily NK)

Spontaneous coping mechanisms aside, efforts at increasing forrest cover might prove more difficult than the government expects.  Even if it resolves the food shortage (which does not seem likely in the near term), it has seemingly lost control of its technocrats who have no problem selling DPRK lumber overseas:

…Oh Moon-hyuk, branch manager of the Ruengra 888 trading company in Yunsa, North Hamkyung Province, was executed after being implicated in the smuggling of timber. The trading company was responsible for the export of timber, and operates under the control of the Party’s accounting bureau. The inside contact stated that because of this incident, North Korean authorities carried out further inspections, leading in October of last year to the dismissal of one official receiving vice-minister pay, and the broadening of the inspections nationwide. (Institute for Far Eastern Studies)

The full articles can be found here:
S. Korea to Help N. Korea Plant More Trees
Korea Times
Kim Yon-se
3/5/2008

Kims’ Clear-Cutting of Korean Forests Risks Triggering Famine
Bloomberg
Bradley Martin
Hideko Takayama
11/21/2007

Cause of Barren Mountains: Imperialism-Natural Disaster-Officers
Daily NK
Han Young Jin
3/16/2007

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Bfrief No. 08-2-5-2
2/5/2008

Light from the North?
Time
Donald MacIntyre
8/11/2002

A couple of days ago, we had an interesting exchange in the comments that I want to make sure readers have an opportiunity to see:
———————–

Werner Koidl Says: 
 
In that Asia Times report Dr. Petrov wrote:
“… Last year the Russian auto plant KamAZ opened its first assembly line in North Korea, specializing in the production of medium-size trucks named “Taebaeksan-96″. …”

I would be interested in more details about that KAMAZ truck assembly line in North Korea ! Where ?, joint venture ?, size ?
———————–

Leonid Petrov Says: 
 
Concerning the “Taebaeksan 96″ truck assembling plant, the KamAZ set it up last year (2007 or Juche 96) in the town of Pyeongseong. The terms of this deal with NK were really “friendly” and last year KamAZ was having no or very little profit. The production volume last year was very limited (45 or 48 trucks). However, it’s just the beginning of such cooperation.

There is one technician-representative from KamAZ who manages the assembling process. He stays in Pot’onggang HTL and commutes to Pyeongseong. Many North Korean drivers and technicians seem to be technically ignorant (i.e. not knowing how to change the engine oil, etc.), so they need a new technological culture to be introduced. Russians train them well and the North Koreans are grateful.
———————–

Gag Halfrunt Says:

Now that explains the brochure for the Taebaeksan 96 I’d noticed on the Korean Friendship Association’s exports page. I was wondering how anyone could be making money from sticking badges on KamAZes and trying to sell them on. In any case, the export potential for the Taebaeksan 96 must be close to zero, since anyone outside the DPRK who wants a KamAZ can buy one assembled by KamAZ itself.

Trying to drum up interest in the DPRK as an investment destination, the KFA say, “All business made directly with the government, state-owned companies. No middle agents.” This is amusing, because, on the Pyeonghwa car brochure on the KFA website, they’ve sneakily deleted Pyeonghwa’s own contact details and replaced them with the KFA’s email and web addresses. I think this qualifies them a “middle agent” standing between Pyeonghwa and any potential export customers…
———————–

Werner Koidl Says:
 
The link “brochure for the Taebaeksan 96″ given by Gag Halfrunt seems to indicate that the KamAZ Taebaeksan-96 is assembled in a joint venture with Ryongwang [Ryongbong] Trading Company of North Korea. Ryongwang Trading is also the joint venture partner of Pyeonghwa Motors (Unification Church) to assemble the “Whiparam” in Nampo. And Ryongwang Trading company is also business partner of “Kohas” company from Switzerland. And because of its connections to Ryongwang this Swiss company got in troubles with the US administration.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies
NK Brief No. 08-3-7-1
3/7/2008
 
North Korea’s latest demand at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) is a 100 USD per person registration fee for South Korean workers residing in the complex’s dormitories. The North demanded the fee early in 2007 to cover registration and issuance of registration certificates regarding workers visiting or residing in the complex, and negotiations have been underway the entire year.

An unnamed source close to the South Korean government stated, “At the end of January, the North unilaterally decided on the KIC visiting and residing fees, and when they were not complied with [the North] notified [the South] that they would ban entrance” to the complex, however, “despite this, currently entrance into the complex is freely obtainable.”

The North set a 35 USD fee for registering a short-term stay of up to 90 days, and a 100 USD fee for registering a one-year residency, according to the source. A Unification Ministry official acknowledged, “The fee demanded by the North is not exorbitant, but from the perspective of the businesses in the complex, negotiations on reasonable measures were in progress.”

North Korea is making its demands based on the ‘Kaesong Industrial Zone Entrance, Dwelling and Residence Regulation’ enacted in December 2003. According to this regulation, fees must be paid for issuance and reissuance of registration papers when applying for short term stays up to 90 days, long term visits over 90 days, and residency of one year or more. Currently, there are over 800 South Korean employees who would need to pay fees for visiting or residing at KIC.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
Nk Brief No. 08-2-22-1
2/22/2008

The South Korean NGO ‘Good Friends’ has reported that government stores in North Korea are mourning the drop in sales of electrical appliance, which appear to be out of favor due to electrical shortages around the country. Good Friends, an organization focused on supplying aid to North Korea, printed in its latest newsletter, “From November of last year to this February electricity has not been available on a regular basis in Chungjin City. At one foreign goods store in the Pohang District, electrical appliances have been barely selling…not only have the store’s sellers have been unable to meet monthly sales targets for several months, sales in February are no different.”

In addition, the newsletter describes the seriousness of the North’s energy shortage, pointing out that “as it becomes more and more difficult for residents to see electricity, they are seeking out Chinese-made 12V batteries, car batteries, candles, and other alternatives.” According to the article, most well-off residents are using car batteries, while average laborers carry flashlights or small battery chargers to work, using electricity slated for industrial use to charge personal items. ”Authorities or people with relatively good jobs usually have around five rechargers in their offices, while some may have more than ten…people with no money or access to industrial-use electricity are buying candles for light.”

The article concluded with, “Electricity has not flown into Soonchun City since October of last year, and five hours of current provided for the people last January 1st, New Year’s Day, was practically the only [electricity]…when returning home after work in the evenings, there is no electricity and nothing to eat, making life difficult.” Along with this, the newsletter reported, “North Korean authorities will no longer permit private dummy corporations…in serious cases, public executions are carried out.”

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-2-13-1
2/13/2008

As South Korean materials used in light industry make their way to the North, some DPRK factories appear to returning to normal manufacturing operations. A source in North Korea recently reported, “Raw rubber, talcum (used for soap), perfumes, textiles, and other ROK raw materials made their way to a Sinuiju shoe factory and cosmetics factory, and production has returned to normal.”

South Korea is providing raw materials for light industry worth 80 million USD in return for mined goods from the Danchun and Kumduk areas of North Korea. According to the source, “9 containers of soap powder came to the soap department of the Sinuiju cosmetics factory. The factory is in full operation and most workers are reporting for work…Workers are receiving monthly wages and food rations, and [they] almost never come out to the traditional market.”

The workers at the Sinuiju cosmetics factory are mostly women, and up until now there were no materials or power, so there could be no production and business was off. However, since the middle of last November, as materials began to flow in, this factory was identified as a ‘special’ factory, power was turned back on, and the manufactured goods began to roll out. An inside source also reported that the goods have already begun to turn up on Sinuiju markets. “Sneakers began appearing in Sinuiju’s Chaeya and Chinsun Markets; The quality is good, and the residents have received them well … The response seen is that it is thanks to the South Korean shoe materials that the quality is good. Chinese shoes are not able to compete, and are not selling well.”

The source went on to report that the scent of laundry detergent was nice, and that it was only being used to wash undergarments. “Everyone knows that the light industrial raw materials are from South Korea …Everyone already knows that South Korea has flourished, so they publicly praise ROK goods.”

As production normalizes at the Sinuiju shoe factory, cosmetics factory, and other light industrial factories, factory workers are becoming objects of envy. Among residents, some worry about not being able to enter the factories, because in the factory, monthly wages and rations are received, and some products can be stolen and privately sold.

Goods now found in Sinuiju markets include some given to factory workers based on their piece rates, and some that are snuck out and find their way to vendors. However, in this first stage of production normalization, the North is not yet at a level at which large-scale rationing to the people is possible.