North Korean Economy Watch

(UPDATE BELOW)
Press Statement by Sean McCormack
December 30, 2008
US Department of State web site

Question:  Will you please provide an update on the deliveries of food aid to North Korea?

Answer:   To date, over 143,000 metric tons of U.S. food (wheat, corn, and soybeans) has been delivered to North Korea. Of that amount, the latest shipment of 25,000 metric tons of corn and soybeans arrived in North Korea on November 23 and has completed unloading for distribution by the U.S. NGOs. The latest shipment of food aid (totaling 21,000 metric tons), which was expected to arrive by the end of December, is now expected to arrive in the DPRK on January 2, due to recent rough seas.

The United States has not stopped food aid to North Korea. Under the terms of our agreement with the DPRK, there is to be no limit imposed on the Korean language capabilities of the World Food Program (WFP) and U.S. NGO staff implementing the food aid program. The lack of sufficient Korean speakers on the WFP program is one of the key issues in ongoing discussions. The issuance of visas for Korean-speaking monitors for the WFP program is another issue currently being discussed, along with other technical issues. A delegation that recently visited North Korea, identified problems in the implementation of the world food program portion of the food aid program. Those problems are not yet resolved.

Under the most recent agreement reached at the six party talks, the US has committed to sending 500,000 tons of food assistance to North Korea within the 12 months beginning in June 2008.  So far the US has shipped 143,000 tons. 

South Korean civil society is also contributing:

Two South Korean charities say they’ve shipped food and fuel to impoverished North Korean families suffering in the cold.

A shipment of food for babies and their mothers worth about $302,300 is to be distributed in Hoeryong by the Seoul-based Jungto Society, a Buddhist group, Yonhap News Agency reported Tuesday.

Families in Hoeryong are particularly vulnerable because the town sits on the remote northeastern tip of North Korea and and receives less assistance from other regions, said Kim Ae-Kyung, a Jungto spokesman.

The shipment includes dried seaweed powder, flour, milk powder, sugar and salt for 2,500 mothers and 6,300 infants and children.

Another South Korean charity, Briquet Sharing Movement, said it has delivered 50,000 charcoal fuel briquets to North Korean border towns Kaesong and Kosong.

In all, the two towns have received 800,000 briquets from the charity this year, enough to help heat 3,200 homes, Yonhap reported.

(UPDATE) From the Korea Times:

[T]he “Easter Star” was en route to the reclusive country with 21,000 metric tons of corn and will soon arrive at the port of Nampo.

American NGOs, such as Mercy Corps, World Vision and Global Resource Service will distribute the aid in Jagang and North Pyeongan Provinces, the official added. The State Department originally expected the aid to reach the port by the end of this month.

It will be the sixth shipment of the 500,000 metric tons of promised food aid. In May, the U.S. agreed to resume the aid in June for 12 months. The United States given 143,000 metric tons of food assistance so far, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters in Washington last week.

The NGO official also said 4,940 metric tons of a corn-soya blend and corn oil will be separately shipped to North Korea in mid-January as the seventh shipment, and NGOs will distribute them in the same regions.

NGOs have been a regular channel for Washington to distribute its promised assistance. The World Food Program under the United Nations has also distributed food assistance on the U.S. government’s behalf.

The shipment will be the first aid package reaching North Korea after talks on dismantling the North Korean nuclear program came to an abrupt end without substantial agreement in early December.

In spite of the stalemate on the nuclear issue, McCormack said, “Our humanitarian program will continue.” U.S. attention is now shifting to stationing Korean-speaking staff working with the WFP and NGO programs at the point of distribution.

Read the full articles here:
Charities send food, fuel to North Korea
UPI News
12/30/2008

US Corn Aid to Arrive in North Korea Jan. 3
Korea Times
Kim Se-jeong
12/28/2008

Korea Business Consultants published their December 2008 newsletter.  You can read it on line here, or download the PDF here.

The following topics are covered:
Orascom Launches DPRK Mobile Phone Service
Pyongyang Undergoing Facelift
Obama’s DPRK Options
US Brothers Light Up DPRK Hospitals
Kuwait to Lend DPRK US$21.7 Million
DPRK Finds More Natural Resources
DPRK Engineers to Study Russian Rail Operations
Swedes to Make Jeans in DPRK
KNIC Wins Insurance Case
DPRK, ROK Agree on Tokdo
DPRK to Strengthen China Ties
Russia’s House Speaker to visit DPRK
DPRK, Singapore Sign Investment Agreement
DPRK Praises Yemen’s Reunification Example
ROK Wave on the Wane in DPRK
DPRK Girls World Soccer Champions
New DPRK Destinations
Korean Cuisine

Working Paper (Download PDF here)
Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Abstract: This study finds that North Korea’s nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on North Korea’s trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea’s trade with its two principal partners.

In retrospect, North Korea may have calculated quite correctly that the direct penalties for establishing itself as a nuclear power would be modest (or, alternatively, put such a high value on demonstrating its nuclear capability that it outweighed the downside risks, however large). If sanctions are to deter behavior in the future, they will have to be much more enthusiastically implemented.

Keywords: Sanctions, North Korea, Nuclear, United Nations, Trade equations
JEL codes: F51, P2, D74

This subject was covered in the Washington Times this morning.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-19-1
12/19/2008

On October 28, 2005, an office housing the Inter-Korean Council for Economic Cooperation was established in order to create a channel for routine dialog between North and South Korean authorities and to assist with direct business deals between the two countries. Now, three years later and as inter-Korean relations have stalled, the office has completely closed its doors, causing economic cooperation to wither.

For over three years, the office served as a window fro North and South Korean businesses and workers, assisting with agreements between businesses, passing on documents, delivering samples, and more. In particular, it facilitated a total of 1,269 consultations and deliberations, with a mere 43 in 2005, growing by more than one thousand percent to 446 in 2006 and continuing to grow to 510 in 2007, while only 270 were held this year, bringing together a total of 4070 South Koreans with 3634 North Koreans, for a total of 7704 people making use of the services this office had to offer.

The office also served as a go-between for 10,539 documents sent from the South and 10,656 documents drafted by the North, and mediated the drafting of 668 new regulations for enterprises in the complex. This includes company proposals and promotions, delivery of samples, letters of recommendation, notarization of authentication, and other documents related to economic cooperation.

Of the 1354 samples that passed through the office, 560 were from the South, while 794 were from the North. There were eleven officials from the Ministry of Unification, Ministry of Finance, and other related South Korean government bureaus in the office, as well as another ten officials from the South Korean Trade Council, KOTRA, the Export-Import Bank, the Small and Medium Business Corporation, and the North Korean National Economic Cooperation Federation.

However, on March 24 of this year, North Korea ordered all South Koreans to evacuate the office after Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong stated that “it would be difficult to expand the Kaesong Industrial Complex if the North Korean nuclear issue is not resolved,” and three days later, all eleven government officials were ordered out, leaving only three officials, from KOTRA, the Export-Import Bank, and the Small and Medium Business Corporation behind, along with two employees to manage the facilities.

Now, with North Korean measures restricting land crossings over the military demarcation line, the full closure of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Office, and the expulsion of South Korean workers implemented on the 24th of last month, all South Korean workers in the office had to return to South Korea on the 28th. This is causing considerable difficulties for small and medium businesses that could previously trade with or invest in North Korea at lower costs through the office.

UPDATE: Here is an older paper by Stacey Banks which I have not read: North Korean Telecommunication: On Hold.

ORIGINAL POST: On Monday the Orascom 3G mobile network launched in North Korea.  Just about everyone covered this story…so here are the highlights:

Telecommunications in North Korea: Has Orascom Made the Connection?
Working Paper: Marcus Noland

The topicality of the second paper, on the Egyptian firm Orascom’s role in North Korea’s telecommunications modernization, received a boost this week with the announcement in Pyongyang that Orascom was finally rolling out its cell phone service and creating a joint venture bank with a North Korean partner.  The planned Orascom investments are large: if actualized, they would be the largest non-Chinese or non-South Korean investments in North Korea, and would exceed total private investment in the Kaesong Industrial Complex to date

Financial Times

Orascom is confident North Korea is opening up its economy and says it has been assured by the ­government that everyone will be allowed to buy a mobile. However, experts think that such a volte-face is highly unlikely and reckon only senior military and government officials will be allowed access, and then only to a closed network.

When asked how many people would ultimately use the service, Orascom’s chairman Naguib Sawiris said: “We have a modest target of 5 to 10 per cent of the population.” The population is about 23m. Mr Sawiris expects 50,000 subscriptions in the first three-to-six months.

Jim Hoare, Britain’s former chargé d’affaires to Pyongyang, says the new network is bound to have severe restrictions.

“It’s unlikely that a country that doesn’t allow you to have a radio unless it’s set to the state frequency will suddenly allow everyone to have mobile phones. It’s more credible that there will be a limited network for officials in Pyongyang and Nampo.”

Dong Yong-sung, chief of the economic security team at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul, believes another obstacle to ordinary North Koreans owning phones will be the cost. “As far as I know, mobile phone registration costs about $1,000,” he said, a sum equivalent to the average annual income.

(NKeconWatch: Others put the price at $700…and there are many problems with asserting that the DPRK’s per capita income is $1,000 per year.)

Bloomberg

The inauguration of Koryolink took place today in North Korea, Orascom Telecom said in an e-mailed statement. Orascom Telecom Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Sawiris attended the event, a company official said, requesting anonymity. The Cairo- based company got a 25-year license and exclusive access for four years in January. It plans to spend as much as $400 million on a high-speed network and the license for the first three years.

The North Korean venture is “in line with our strategy to penetrate countries with high population and low penetration by providing the first mobile telephony services,” Sawiris said in a statement earlier this year.

CHEO Technology JV Company, the North Korean unit that will operate under the Koryolink name, is 75 percent owned by Orascom Telecom and 25 percent by the state-owned Korea Post and Telecommunications Corporation.

The unit will see average revenue per user of $12 to $15 this year as Orascom Telecom targets three of the country’s biggest cities, according to company forecasts.

Koryolink has rolled out its so-called third-generation grid to initially cover Pyongyang, with a population of 2 million.

Orascom is counting on four potential markets in the Stalinist nation, according to a study by Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The military and government officials are the top targets, followed by foreigners working for UN organizations and diplomats. The others are customers from South Korea, which has several economic projects with its neighbor, and local demand from rich North Koreans.

To protect its investment, Orascom “hedged its bet, committing only half of its investment at the outset and making additional investment conditional on its assessment of conditions going forward,” Noland said.

If the deal is threatened, Orascom may withdraw specialized equipment or technicians, reducing the value of the network to Pyongyang, Noland said in his study.

“Orascom may have spread the wealth informally, creating beneficiaries within the decision-making apparatus who would stand to lose if the agreement failed,” according to the study.

Bloomberg

Orascom Telecom, the Middle East’s biggest wireless company, opened Ora Bank in Pyongyang in the presence of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Naguib Sawiris, a company official said on condition of anonymity. Ezzeldine Heikal, who is also head of Koryolink, Orascom’s North Korean mobile-phone network, was appointed president of the bank, the official said without providing further details.

“This is a big deal, especially as far as North Korea is concerned, because the current banking system is virtually non- existent,” Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said in a telephone interview from Washington, D.C. “It’s a ground that others have feared to tread and is perhaps an endorsement for North Korea that says ‘we’re open for business.’”

Ora Bank is a joint venture between Orascom Telecom and North Korea’s state-owned Foreign Trade Bank, North Korea’s official news agency reported today. The director of North Korea’s central bank Kim Chon Gyun and Egypt’s ambassador to Pyongyang Ismail Abdelrahman Ghoneim Hussein, were also present at the opening ceremony, the news agency said.

Radio Free Asia

Chinese traders who regularly travel back and forth to North Korea said local residents showed little enthusiasm for the new service, which cost more than U.S. $900 to set up before the Ryongchun explosion.

North Korean defector Kim Kwang-jin, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul, said the fact that the government had once pulled the plug on North Korean cell phones meant that it could easily do so again.

“In the beginning, people will be hesitant, because a few years ago many of them made a big investment in cell phones. But service was suspended abruptly, so they are still very concerned that might happen again,” Kim said.

“People are also worried that the ability to pay such a high amount of money for a cell phone may raise a red flag and bring them under scrutiny by the North Korean authorities.”

Most foreigners are banned from using cell phones while in North Korea, although a network for government officials is believed to exist in the capital, Pyongyang.

(NKeconWatch: I personally saw elite North Koreans use mobile phones and even some western journalists in 2005.)

The Guardan

North Korea first experimented with mobile phones in 2002, but recalled the handsets 18 months later after a mysterious train explosion that killed an estimated 160 people. Some experts argue that officials feared the incident was an attempt to assassinate the regime’s “dear leader”, Kim Jong-il, and that mobile phones were involved.

BBC

Some reports suggest that handsets for the new network will cost around $700 each, putting them far beyond the reach of the vast majority of people in the impoverished country.

Choson Ilbo

Although the technology would enable users to send and receive text messages and video content, North Korean customers will only be allowed to speak over their phones.

BMI Political Risk Analysis, Dec 16, 2008 (h/t Oliver)

BMI View: North Korea has officially begun third-generation (3G) mobile phone services, thanks to Egypt’s Orascom Telecom (OT). However, the growth of the network could be limited by the regime’s fear that mobile phones will increase the scope for anti-regime activities.

North Korea has officially commenced third-generation (3G) mobile phone services, thanks to an investment by Egypt’s Orascom Telecom (OT). The firm’s initial target is 100,000 subscribers in three major cities, including Pyongyang, and it eventually hopes to develop a nation-wide network connecting North Korea’s 23mn citizens. OT has promised to invest US$400mn in network infrastructure over the next four years. It has signed a 25-year contract with the North Korean government, and owns 75% of their joint-venture (known as Korealink). OT’s exclusivity rights will last for four years. Orascom’s foray is something of a coup, given that North Korea’s communications network is so rudimentary (for further background see December 8 2008, Industry Trend Analysis – North Korea Prepares For Mobile Network Launch).

Why Pyongyang Fears Mobile Phones
North Korea launched a mobile phone service operated by a Thai subsidiary firm in 2002, but reversed course in 2004, apparently because of a devastating bomb blast on a train in Ryongchon in April of that year. Given that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s personal train had passed through the area only a few hours earlier, there was speculation that the explosion had been an assassination attempt, possibly triggered by mobile phone. Since then, only those living in areas close to the border with China have had access to mobile phones, thanks to the proximity of the Chinese network.

Aside from the notion of mobile phones as bomb triggers, they can also make it easier for citizens to communicate with one another. This would increase citizens’ ability to organise anti-government activities – such as protests or sabotage. For example, the popular uprising that led to the overthrow of Philippine president Joseph Estrada in 2001 was dubbed the ‘text message revolution’, because that is how the marches were announced and coordinated. Admittedly, the Philippines is a far more open society than North Korea, but the subversive aspect has not been lost on the regime.

Mobile phones would also make it easier for North Koreans to communicate with the outside world, and thus allow the real-time transmission of information or intelligence to foreign media or spy agencies, and vice versa. They would also allow the North Korean elite to communicate more efficiently, allowing dissident elements to plot against the regime.

Thus, even something as basic as mobile phones are seen as potentially regime threatening.

Mobile Service Difficult To Spread
Consequently, Orascom will surely find it difficult to spread its mobile service across the country. For a start, registration will be tightly watched. Secondly, the cost of the handsets, at several hundred dollars, will mean that only the political and moneyed elites will be able to afford mobiles. Of course, elements of the elite can ‘misuse’ their phones to arrange subversive actions if they deem it worthy, but it seems that the regime are counting on loyalty. Indeed, depending on the sophistication of their equipment, the regime will probably be able to snoop in on the elite’s conversations and movements, giving them an additional layer of security.

Read the full articles below:
Orascom eyes North Korean network
Financial Times
Christian Oliver
12/14/2008

Orascom Telecom’s Sawiris Signs North Korean Deal
Bloomberg
Tarek Al-Issawi
12/15/2008

Orascom Telecom of Egypt Opens Bank in North Korea
Bloomberg
Tarek Al-Issawi
12/16/2008

North Korea Brings Back Cell Phones
Radio Free Asia
Jung Young
12/16/2008

Secretive North Korea launches restricted mobile phone service
The Guardian
Tania Branigan
12/16/2008

N Korea launches 3G phone network
BBC
Steve Jackson
12/15/2008

N.Korea Restarts Cell Phone Service
Choson Ilbo
12/17/2008

The Koryo Tours December newsletter went out this week.  You can read it here. Interesting highlights below:

1. Apparently the areas open for tourism in the DPRK are expanding.

“We opened a few new areas to tourism over the course of the year including the East Coast city of Chongjin and the nearby Chilbo mountain area, Haeju in the south west of the country and various sites around Pyongyang. We stayed in a few different hotels, many of which we are now able to offer to our clients and in 2009 we intend to go to even more places than ever before, some wholly new areas and some new and expanded attractions in more familiar places – we can’t give out all details (some innovate, others imitate – have to keep some of it off the website for now to protect our interest!) but trust us – you’ll never have another holiday quite like this one if you choose to go with us next year. We have vastly expanded our range of tours to be ever-more inclusive to all demands.”

“2008 was also the year in which we continued our innovation in new kinds of tours; we ran a football tour where a foreign side played against a Korean team in a friendly, and the first ever Ice Hockey, Volleyball, and even Cricket (yes, cricket!) tours took place, all of them between visiting westerners and local Koreans. We continued our school trips and cultural exchange programs and assisted in several interesting and worthwhile projects, some of which are outlined further below. We also ran Pyongyang’s first ever pub quiz. It was a very interesting year for us all and we hope to repeat this innovation in 2009 so if you have any ideas for trips to DPRK then we would be more than happy to hear them, there are a great many restrictions on what can be done there but we have many years of experience and a track record of getting things done which is second to none, if it can be done, then we will organise it for you.”

2. Koryo Tours took in about 950 tourists this year.
3. Mass Games are presumed to be on in 2009.
4. Tour dates here.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-17-1
2008-12-17

As the end of the year approaches, North Korea has launched a ‘Year-end Battle’ in order to encourage every sector of the economy to meet annual production targets, without exception.

On December 1, (North) Korean Central Broadcasting announced, “workers, laborers and technicians of the harvesting industry sector overcome difficulties and barriers with indomitable moral strength, while thoroughly accomplishing the (New Year) Joint Editorial’s fighting tasks, focusing all strengths on the struggle to brightly wrap up the deeply meaningful year,”while also reporting on the production innovation of the nation’s mining and smelting facilities.

The program also announced that each North Korean region’s hydroelectric power plants, “brightly bring the year to a close, while the issue more important than any other is ensuring the People’s Economy electrical use, strongly demanding power production, is supported,” reporting that efforts were being focused on ensuring power production equipment was operating at full capacity, and electrical production was being expanded.

Rail transportation in Pyongyang, Kaechun, Anju, and other areas also reported high achievements in distributing coal for electrical production and ores sent to metal factories, as efforts are put into the ‘Year-end Battle’, according to the broadcasters.

One member of the North Korean Cabinet’s office of light industry announced on November 30 that, in accordance with this year’s New Year Joint Editorial’s ‘prioritization of the lives of the people’, the government invested in the Sariwon Weaving Factory, the Haeju Textile Factory, etc., “struggling to produce more good-quality cloth” in textile factories under the guidance of the office of light industry’s department of textile industry management.

North Korea’s broadcasts also reported that the Ranam Coal Mine Cooperative Enterprise, the Musan Mine Cooperative Enterprise, the Chungjin Tractor Accessories Factory and others were also engaged in this ‘Year-end Battle’.

In South Hamgyung Province, a new lecture hall and electronic library were built at the Hamheung Medical Science College, and construction was underway to expand the number of classrooms. Also, the Heungnam Basic Foods Factory, the Hamheung Orthopedic Surgery Hospital and the Sinheung Irrigation were under construction as each locality is pushing forward with selected economic construction projects.

Putting the “International” into the “International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers,”  Dan and Dennis McCarty, retired from Local 48, traveled with Mercy Corps to Haeju, North Korea, to install electrical systems in three area hospitals:

The men did all pre-planning and preparation work by working from photographs. But that wasn’t the only obstacle the twin brothers had to overcome.

“We experienced low quality electrical power and long hours without electricity,” said Dan McCarty. The language barrier also proved to a challenging, as well as working with a limited number of tools, materials and equipment.

“If you don’t have it with you when you arrive, your only option is to improvise while upholding safe practices,” said Dennis McCarty.

But the brothers didn’t let anything stand in their way. The project was pronounced a resounding success by North Korean’s hospital directors. All three power systems are operational and are currently in service.

Read the full story here:
Twin Brothers Light Up Hospital
IBEW Local 48
11/17/2008

Korea Business Consultants has published their latest newsletter.  You may download it here.

Topics include:
DPRK to Close DMZ Crossing Points
ROK Catholic Priest To Work In DPRK
South’s DLP to Send Team to Pyongyang
Inter-Korean chicken business booms despite chilly ties
”Unofficial DPRK Mission for US”
China Eyes Trade Zone for DPRK Business
Bicycles Becoming More Popular in Pyongyang
“DPRK, China to Up Water Cooperation”
“Kaesong Better that PRC Option”
ROK Business Leaders Visit Kaesong
ROK Charity Sends Flour to DPRK
ROK Eases DPRK-Related Business Rules
“Kaesong goods carried by road”
Kaesong’s Fall Scenery Lures ROK Visitors
DPRK Loses to Thailand 1-0
Names and Titles

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-11-18-1
11/18/2008

The South Korean civic organization ‘Good Friends’ recently reported that North Korean authorities have prohibited North Koreans from working private plots in the mountains which had been cleared and used for grain production, and have recently begun replanting trees in these areas.

A source for Good Friends stated, “The Central Party decreed last September 29th, ‘The Fatherland’s mountains and fields must be adorned with green so that not one single desolate plot exists by the year 2012.’” Accordingly, garden plots are already being reclaimed from individuals and planted with trees.

North Korea is declaring 2012, the year which marks the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung and the 70th birthday of Kim Jong Il, ‘The Year Opening the Gates to a Strong and Prosperous Nation’.

The source stated that local residents in Booryung, North Hamm planted corn, potatoes, beans, and millet on those plots, relying on them for between 3 and 6 months worth of food, and that with the new decree prohibiting farming, more people would die. 

*NKeconWatch: The DPRK just recently replaced its Minister of Forestry.  This is his first large-scale policy initiative.