North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-1-9-1
1/9/2009

The Jochongryeon mouthpiece, Chosun Sinbo, reported on January 5 that North Korea is working to boost economic production by establishing “concrete attainment goals” in each sector in a “yearly, phased plan” from last year until 2012 in order to reach the goal of establishing a “Strong and Prosperous Nation” by the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung. The paper reported that the North had not made an official announcement regarding this plan, but that it was currently in the process of implementing a 5-year economic development plan

In the textile industry, North Korea is focusing efforts on upgrading equipment in five weaving factories, including major sites in Pyongyang and Sariwon, with the goal of increasing cloth production 400 percent by 2012. The newspaper also reported that North Korea is aiming to increase coal production over the next few years, with the goal of reaching 1980s-levels of production. Coal production peaked in 1989 at 43 million metric tons, and it is estimated that North Korea has over 20 billion metric tons of coal reserves, but the Bank of (South) Korea estimates that in 2007, the North mined a mere 24.1 million metric tons of coal due to a lack of electricity and spare parts. Many of North Korea’s coal reserves are below the waterline, and require constant electricity in order for pumps to maintain an environment in which mining can take place. Last year, in order to boost coal production, North Korea increased budget allocations for energy, coal and metal industries by nearly 50 percent.

This year’s New Year’s Joint Editorial placed heavy emphasis on the metals industry, and emphasized that efforts last year to modernize equipment and improve technology increased 2008 steel production by 150 percent at the Chollima Steel Complex and the Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex. The newspaper stressed that these plans were not merely wishful thinking, but that they were “the basis for meaningful achievements,” pointing out that last year, the North Korean cabinet increased investment into both basic industries and vanguard enterprises 49.8 percent. In 2008, North Korea either refurbished or newly constructed over 140 new production facilities, and, “in particular, actively promoted metal, instrument, science, and light industrial sectors.”

According to the newspaper, North Korea would continue to promote economic development in the new year, as well, citing the current global economic crisis and the need to build an independent economic foundation not reliant on South Korea.

On market regulations:  North Korean authorities issued three decrees restricting market activity: 1. Markets may only open once every 10 days  2. Only vegetables, fruits, and meat from private citizens can be sold in the markets.  Imported goods and products of state-owned companies are prohibited  3. To reduce the influence and growth of professional merchants, market booths will be allocated on a first-come, first-served basis (no fixed locations).

The “good” news is that the authorities are having trouble implementing these rules:

A Pyongyang source said in a phone conversation with Daily NK on the 7th, “Until now, markets in Pyongyang have been opening at 2 PM every day and operating normally. They are only closed once a week, on Mondays as usual.”

However, the sale of imported industrial goods from China such as clothing, shoes, cosmetics, kitchen utensils and bathing products has become more restricted in the market. Subsequently, street markets or sales of such goods through personal networks have become increasingly popular.

The source noted, “Inspection units regulate the markets with one eye closed and the other eye open, so it is not as if selling is impossible. With a bribe of a few packs of cigarettes, it is easy to be passed over by the units. However, the sale of industrial goods has rapidly decreased and, if unlucky, one can have his or her goods taken, so the number of empty street-stands has been increasing.”

So many North Koreans now buy Chinese kitchen utensils in the same way Americans purchase cocaine!

But even in Pyongyang they are having troubles enforcing the new rules:

“Since December, rations in Pyongyang have consisted of 90 percent rice and 10 percent corn and in the Sadong-district and in surrounding areas, rice and corn have been mixed fifty-fifty percent.”

“It has even been difficult in Pyongyang, where rations are provided, to convert to 10-day markets due to opposition from citizens, so restricting sales in the provinces, where there is virtually no state provision, is impossible in reality. It is highly likely that the recent measure will end as an ineffective decree, like the ones to prohibit the jangmadang or the sale of grain”[.]

On North Korea’s information blockade:  Radio Free Asia published an informative article on the ability and propensity of North Koreans to monitor foreign broadcasts.  The “good” news is that access to unauthorized information continues to grow.  

The whole article is worth reading (here), but here is an excerpt:

North Koreans manage to gain limited access to foreign media broadcasts in spite of increasing government crackdowns in the isolated Stalinist state.

“We clamped down on the people watching South Korean television sets, but it wasn’t easy,” a North Korean defector and former policeman who monitored North Koreans’ viewing habits said. He said channels fixed by the North Korean authorities could easily be altered to catch South Korean programming.

“You could watch South Korean television such as KBS and MBC in Haeju, Nampo, Sariwon, even in Wonsan,” he said, referring to regions of Hwanghae province, just north of the border with South Korea.

“They reach also to the port cities near the sea. But you can’t watch them in Pyongyang because it’s blocked by mountains.”

He said the police themselves used to watch South Korean television “all the time” along with their superior officers.

“We would enjoy what we watched, but outside in public, we would praise the superiority of our socialist system. We knew it was rubbish.”

“According to North Korean defectors interviewed who came to South Korea right after living in the North, educated, intelligent people in North Korea do listen to foreign stations despite the inherent danger,” Huh Sun Haeng, director of the Center for Human Rights Information on North Korea, said in a recent interview.

He said he made good money fixing people’s radios, so they could get better reception of foreign broadcasts.

“I made good money readjusting channels on radios, or upgrading them with higher frequency parts for local people who want to listen to broadcasts other than the North’s state-run radios. There were at least a few hundred people that I know of who listened to foreign broadcasts,” he said.

He said no television reception reached the northern part of the country near the Chinese border, so people there watched recorded programs on videotape and video CD (VCD) instead.

Read the full articles here:
Pulling Back from Converting to 10-day Markets
Daily NK
By Jung Kwon Ho
1/9/2009   

Growing Audiences for Foreign Programs
Radio Free Asia
Original reporting in Korean by Won Lee
1/8/2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-1-6-1
1/6/2009

Jo Jong-woong, assistant director of the North Korean Department of Light Industry, announced that this year, efforts would be concentrated on production of daily necessities, with a priority on resolving clothing issues.

In an interview on January 4 with the Chosun Sinbo, mouthpiece for the General Association of [North] Korean Residents in Japan, Jo stated, “Currently, the most important sector is textiles,” and, “regarding the easing of the people’s problems, and regarding our production of necessities as well, we have decided to move forward with resolving issues related to clothing shortages first.”

Jo emphasized that the government had been working since 2006 to revitalize the Pyongyang Weaving Factory, and since last year, with all equipment upgraded, quality and production capacity had been increased “several times over.”

He also stated that as much as possible, domestic resources would be used for raw materials, with those unavailable or in short supply being imported in order to meet demands of the factories.

Since 2006, South Korea has provided the North with the necessary materials for the production of shoes, clothing, soap and other daily necessities, in return for mining rights and production distribution rights.

Jo added, “We are pushing light industries to create a country in which all the people can live comfortably and affluently,” and stated that light industries were working to broaden the variety of goods available, while at the same time maximizing the quality of products manufactured for the good of the people.

According to an anonymous qoute by a South Korean intelligence official in the Choson Ilbo:

“Especially, North Korea developed its own DVD player in 2006 with a view to developing its own IT industry, this ironically provided momentum for the spread of South Korean soap operas.”

I had assumed the DPRK imported DVD players. 

Read the full article here:
Pyongyang Bids Korean Wave to Recede
Choson Ilbo
12/26/2008

Quoting from the Korea Times:

Inter-Korean trade fell 27.7 percent in November from a year earlier to $142.72 million, according to the ministry data posted on its Web site.

“Payments to North Korea are mostly made in dollars or euro, so the weak Korean currency has been the primary reason behind the falling trade,” a ministry official was quoted as saying.

More than 80 South Korean firms produce watches, shoes, clothes and kitchenware at a joint industrial complex in the North’s border town of Gaeseong. North Korea also exports sand to the South.

In October, South and North Korea traded goods and services worth $163.06 million, down 23.2 percent from a year earlier.

Meanwhile, inter-Korean trade from January to November reached $1.69 billion, an increase of 3.7 percent from the same period in 2007.

And According to the Hankyoreh (h/t OneFreeKorea):

According to a report, seven companies have canceled their contracts to build facilities at Gaeseong complex since October. Three of the seven bought space at a site reserved for machinery and metal cooperatives in June, and were in the process of constructing or designing factories. The report was submitted to Rep. Chun Jung-bae of the main opposition Democratic Party by the division supporting the Gaeseong Industrial Complex at the Ministry of Unification.

Two companies are in situations unrelated to the breakdown in inter-Korean relations, one had a fire last summer and another is suffering from losses incurred as a result of investment in KIKO, “knock-in knock-out” currency options trading.

The remaining five companies were believed to have abandoned their plans because of the deterioration in inter-Korean relations. An official at one of the five companies, which canceled its investment contract in December, said, “Although the economic crisis was one of the reasons why we canceled the contract, the main reason was that business prospects have darkened due to strained inter-Korean ties. Other companies that moved to (the Gaeseong complex) at the same time also decided to cancel their contracts for the same reason.”

In canceling their contracts, the seven companies forfeited their initial investments, which ranged from 17 million won (US$12,500) to 70 million won each. Land at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex was sold at 45,000 won per one square meter and the companies paid 10 percent of that price as part of their deposit.

Seven other companies also canceled their contracts last year, but they did so after an on-site feasibility study was conducted and it was determined that their businesses were not financially viable. All seven companies were able to receive their deposits under a special provision on contract cancellation, which allows companies to receive their deposits if the contract is canceled within six months of when it was signed.

The companies that canceled their contracts this year were not able to take advantage of the provision because they canceled over six months after signing their contracts.

There are growing concerns that more companies may be canceling their contracts as well. The head of Company “H,” who signed a contract to build a facility at the Gaeseong complex last year, said, “Though I would lose my initial investment of several millions of won, I’m considering canceling the contract because the tensions inter-Korean relations are likely to continue for another five years.”

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean Trade Falls for Second Straight Month
Korea Times
12/20/2008

More companies cancel contracts at Gaeseong complex
Hankyoreh
12/17/2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-17-1
2008-12-17

As the end of the year approaches, North Korea has launched a ‘Year-end Battle’ in order to encourage every sector of the economy to meet annual production targets, without exception.

On December 1, (North) Korean Central Broadcasting announced, “workers, laborers and technicians of the harvesting industry sector overcome difficulties and barriers with indomitable moral strength, while thoroughly accomplishing the (New Year) Joint Editorial’s fighting tasks, focusing all strengths on the struggle to brightly wrap up the deeply meaningful year,”while also reporting on the production innovation of the nation’s mining and smelting facilities.

The program also announced that each North Korean region’s hydroelectric power plants, “brightly bring the year to a close, while the issue more important than any other is ensuring the People’s Economy electrical use, strongly demanding power production, is supported,” reporting that efforts were being focused on ensuring power production equipment was operating at full capacity, and electrical production was being expanded.

Rail transportation in Pyongyang, Kaechun, Anju, and other areas also reported high achievements in distributing coal for electrical production and ores sent to metal factories, as efforts are put into the ‘Year-end Battle’, according to the broadcasters.

One member of the North Korean Cabinet’s office of light industry announced on November 30 that, in accordance with this year’s New Year Joint Editorial’s ‘prioritization of the lives of the people’, the government invested in the Sariwon Weaving Factory, the Haeju Textile Factory, etc., “struggling to produce more good-quality cloth” in textile factories under the guidance of the office of light industry’s department of textile industry management.

North Korea’s broadcasts also reported that the Ranam Coal Mine Cooperative Enterprise, the Musan Mine Cooperative Enterprise, the Chungjin Tractor Accessories Factory and others were also engaged in this ‘Year-end Battle’.

In South Hamgyung Province, a new lecture hall and electronic library were built at the Hamheung Medical Science College, and construction was underway to expand the number of classrooms. Also, the Heungnam Basic Foods Factory, the Hamheung Orthopedic Surgery Hospital and the Sinheung Irrigation were under construction as each locality is pushing forward with selected economic construction projects.

Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
12/10/2008

The North Korean authorities recently announced the intention to sell all industrial products in state-operated stores, soon after announcing the revised “10th-day farmers markets,” which open only on the 1st, 11th and 21st of every month, starting from next year.

According to an inside source in North Hamkyung Province, a new instruction on the sale of industrial products in state-operated stores was introduced during the latest cadres’ lectures. As rumors of the large-scale entry of Chinese goods onto the market due to Chinese loans circulate among people, there has been in a flutter in the market.

The source stated that the idea of industrial product sales was introduced during a cadres’ lecture on the 29th of November under the title, “measures to improve the current situation and people’s lives,” which also explained the transformation of the current market system into the “10th-day farmers market” system.

In the source’s opinion, “It signifies the government’s attempt to monopolize the industrial-product market, which was actively and spontaneously established by the people after the ‘march of tribulation’ in the late 1990s. Industrial goods to be sold in the state-operated stores would include both Chinese and North Korean products.

During the lecture, it was stated that “All industrial goods that have been passing through the jangmadang (markets) must now be sold in the state-operated stores and only vegetables or certain agricultural products can be sold within the farmers markets,” which suggests the prohibition of individuals selling food-related products and industrial goods.

With regard to the backdrop of this policy, the authorities explained that, “The current market was a temporary measure taken by the state considering the difficult situations caused by the march of tribulation. However, the markets after some time deviated from the state’s intention and socialist economic principles and have become a hotbed of crimes generating capitalist and anti-socialist trends. Therefore, we are ridding ourselves of all markets and reviving the farmers market.”

The source explained that this measure does not seem to “simply control the markets. But if they begin selling industrial products in the state-operated stores, they would be able to circulate money within the regime that has been circulating within private markets and among individuals by tying purchase profits to national banks.

He said, “Due to the jangmadang, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened. And, because money is not flowing within the regime, the authorities are getting rid of private sales to revive the banks so as to recover the regime economy… It seems the state-controlled economy will become better next year” he added.

However, the source also relayed that “Although they announced the selling of industrial goods only in the state-operated stores from next year, nothing, regarding exactly when and how, was mentioned during the lecture.”

“There is also another rumor that even ‘procurement stores’ would have to sell products on the same price level with the state-operated stores, or they would have to close down. It basically signifies that the regime will not permit any form of private sales, by selling all products that had been sold by individuals” he added.

The source reported that there have been heated debates on this decision among North Koreans.

“Famers gladly took this decision that industrial goods will sell in state-operated stores because they have been complaining that they sold agricultural products at next to nothing while buying industrial goods at such a high price. They are expecting that industrial goods will cost less than now” the source reported.

“However, workers in urban areas are extremely concerned that they cannot sell anything in the jangmadang. An average workers’ salary is 1,500 North Korean Won and if individuals are not permitted to sell, workers’ families will be harshly affected” he forecasted.

The source continued on and said, “Even though they say workers get paid well, how are they expected to live when a pair of military boots costs 9,000 North Korean won. One month’s salary is not even half a kilo of rice.”

The source in the end expressed concern because workers began “explicitly complaining about cadres who only fill themselves up. I personally think that there will begin a massive war within the markets starting from New Year’s Day”.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-8-1
12/8/2008

The North Korean online magazine ‘Our Nation (uri minjokkiri)’ emphasized on January 1 that development of national defense industries would be prioritized, stating that it was “the best way to move forward and harden a strong national defense while at the same time developing the entire economy.”

In an article titled, “The Path to Economic Construction of the Military-first Era,” the website reminded the reader of the goal of building a strong and prosperous nation by 2012, and stated that Kim Jong Il had said that building up the economy was the “main line of construction for the building of a Strong and Prosperous Nation.” It went on, “Today’s era is the era in which the national economic strength is determined by the amount of development of the national defense industries,” and, “National defense industries are in a leading position, while the independent establishment of the core economic structure is necessary, and a strong economic base can be constructed.”

The magazine emphasized, “The might of heavy industry can be further strengthened following the completion of the basis of the national defense industries, also ceaselessly developing light industry and agriculture.” The article also stressed that as North Korea’s national defense industries are at a comparatively high level internationally, matching that of the United States, and that he national economy overwhelming potential is easy to see.

The article noted that today’s military competition between nations is practically scientific and technological competition, and, “strengthening of national defense in every way based on science and technology, and establishing a framework of science and technology and deciding to quickly develop a strong and prosperous nation by focusing on science is really the path for building the economy in the Military-first Era.”

The magazine emphasized that this military-first era economic building plan was “truly for the people, and was the most civic path to prepare national economic strength for public services.” “In accordance with changes in the political atmosphere and actual conditions, the amount of energy applied to building of national defense and economic construction, citizens’ livelihoods, or other realms could vary, but the true requirement of the building of the socialist economy is to ceaselessly raise the level of the livelihoods of the people, and ultimately, this goal can never waver.”

Last week, North Korean Economy Watch reported Pyongyang’s irrational economic policy threats which could end the flow of millions of South Korean dollars into North Korean coffers.  I use the word “irrational” because government policies are typically designed to increase revenues to the treasury (or to coalition / constituent members), not scare them away.  Today, however, North Korea reaffirmed its commitment to closing the border with South Korea on December 1, though with some qualifications:

1. The North Koreans will end “the train to nowhere” (c) NKeconWatch. This is puzzling because of all the inter-Korean projects, this one is the least “contaminating.” The South Korean government pays the North Korean government to send an empty train across the border each day.  Why jeopardize this easy money?

2. The North Koreans will end the Kaesong day tours.  This will not be good for Hyundai Asan (HA), which is already suffering losses from the idle Kumgangsan resort.  On the plus side for HA, since this project merely bussed people around Kaesong, they will not be leaving much fixed capital on the northern side of the DMZ.  Still, it is strange that the North Koreans would seek to end this program.  Although it is slightly “contaminating” in that hundreds of South Koreans are shuffled through Kaesong every day, the North’s citizens are generally isolated from their wealthy neighbors. Additionally, I estimate that this program has grossed the North Koreans nearly USD$10 million since it was launched nearly a year ago. This is not an insignificant amount of money to the DPRK.

3. The ultimate fate of the Kaesong Industrial Zone remains uncertain.  Although the North Koreans have threatened to “selectively expel” up to half of the South Koreans in the facility, some managers remain optimistic:

“(The North) never said it would halt production or expel staff related to the production process. So even in the worst case of operating with only half of the staff, we think there won’t be any problem in production,” said Lee Eun-suk, an official at Shinwon Corp, which has clothing factories at Kaesong. (Reuters, via the Washington Post)

Unless North Korea’s policy makers are terminating the flow of economic rents into the country to curb the power of some particular official or interest group, there are not many instances where these actions could be considered shrewd.  Adding to the confusion, most analysts presume that the majority of the South’s construction and wage fees are distributed to the small cohort of high-ranking North Korean policy makers who ostensibly signed off on the projects in the first place.  So why would they now decide to end their own direct funding?

These policy decisions, moreover, will likely affect the North Koreans in ways they do not yet seem to anticipate, particularly when it comes to attracting private foreign direct investment (which is desperately needed).  Private investors will not be attracted to a business environment where the rules of the game are prone to changing every few months.  Investment entrepreneurs will not risk the appropriation of large scale fixed assets.  International aid and official foreign direct investment will probably go on as usual as these tasks have more to do with political decisions than economic.

So what is going on?  That is the million dollar question, and speculation in this case is not worth all that much.  The Daily NK, however, claims to have interviewed an “official” from Pyongyang who discussed recent developments in the Kaesong Industrial Zone.  His claim is that the North Koreans made the decision to close the Kaesong Zone for internal political reasons:

Q. What is the reason that North Korea is trying to suspend the business in the Kaesong Industrial Complex?

A. In fact, the story about the suspension of the Kaesong Complex has emanated from Pyongyang since this fall, but it had been decided as an instruction of the Party in Pyongyang late last year.

It is hard to say conclusively what is happening in Kaesong, because there are so many complicated things at work. People from the Party in Pyongyang say that the Kaesong Complex and tourism should fall into disuse and the Mt. Geumgang tourism site should be left alone. Whether or not the Kaesong Complex is thrown away is only up to our economy condition and also the General (Kim Jong Il)’s decision.

Q. Do you mean that instructions on the Kaesong Complex have already been decided internally by the Party?

A.Yes, you can say that. This was because at the beginning, they started it on in the precondition of switching workers once a year, but now they know that switching workers every year is impossible.

Additionally, rumors on South Chosun have been constantly circulating among workers and their families, so illusion of the South have now become uncontrollable among the people. The authorities cannot overlook this situation.

From the Party’s view, each worker in Mt. Geumgang and Kaesong is like a poster advertising capitalism. Due to them, our socialist system could be cracked.

As I know, at least 20 affiliates with Kaesong Complex came into questioning for advertising South Chosun and capitalism.

There was a thorough reshuffling in the Party last year. There is nobody who talks about Kaesong or Mt. Geumgang.

Q. Can North Korea ignore the abundant dollars from Kaesong in practice?

A. Frankly speaking, we have relied on it due to money. Even right now, if South Korea treats things like the Mt. Geumgang shooting accident flexibly and starts the tours again, everything is okay. The money we want does not need to come only from South Korea. There are Yuan, Rubles and dollars as well. They are all the same.

Although our economy is so terrible, we will not establish the national vision only targeted on making money. You should bear this point in mind.

Thoughts and opinions apprecaited. 

Read more here:
There Is an Internal Reason for the Bluff on Kaesong
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
11/16/2008

Kaesong Staff to Be Expelled
Daily NK
Kim So Yeol
11/24/2008

Kaesong Tour and Trains are Suspended
Daily NK
Jeong Jae Sung
11/24/2008

North Korea to Halt Cross-Border Rail Service, Tours
Bloomberg
Heejin Koo
11/24/2008

North Korea prepares to shut border with South
Reuters (via Washington Post)
Jonathan Thatcher
11/24/2008

N. Korea Stiffens Diplomatic Stance
New York Times
Choe Sang-hun
11/24/2008

From Wikipedia:

PyongSu Joint Venture Company, Limited is a pharmaceutical company jointly founded in 2002 by Pyongyang Pharmaceutical Company in North Korea and a company headquartered in Hong Kong which is a market leader in pharmaceuticals distribution and contract manufacturing in Asia. The corporate headquarters of PyongSu are in the Songyo district in Pyongyang. PyongSu started trial production in 2004 and, as of 2005, engaged in manufacturing mainly painkillers and antibiotics. At the end of 2006 the foreign-invested stake was sold to another investor. Felix Abt, the 3rd managing director (or president) managed to avoid the closure of the company by turning the heavily loss-making operation into a profit-making one. PyongSu became the first North Korean pharmaceutical factory to reach GMP (a universally recognized quality standard in the pharmaceutical industry as defined by the WHO), repeatedly inspected and confirmed by the WHO. It also became the first ever North Korean company to participate in tender competitions and to win contracts against foreign competitors from China, India, Germany and elsewhere. With an increasing cash-flow generated by itself, the company has even become able to buy and profitably operate pharmacies and other sales outlets in the country. Towards the end of 2008 managing director Felix Abt explained that the company now enjoys 1) a portfolio of products made by itself including an anti-helmintic and an anti-hypertensive drug that meets the patients’ needs well 2) a good reputation as a quality and service-minded company in the DPR Korea and the recognition as the “model company” of the domestic pharmaceutical industry. 3) a good market penetration thanks to wholesaling (that includes a variety of complementary products at affordable prices imported directly from reliable GMP-manufacturers) and its own profitable retail outlets (i.e. pharmacies) and 4) a healthy growth (including a high amount of orders on hand for 2009), sustainability and profitability.

Click here to read a recent interview by Mr. Abt in Interview Blog.