North Korean Economy Watch

Korea Herald
4/17/2007

London investor Colin McAskill yesterday said he would attempt to transfer $7 million from Macau’s Banco Delta Asia, which the U.S. Treasury has labeled a money launderer, to test if North Korean-linked accounts have access to the international financial system.

The money is part of some $25 million in Banco Delta accounts belonging to North Korean entities and individuals that Macau authorities froze in 2005 after the United States said the bank was laundering money for the communist state. The funds were unfrozen last week as a concession in talks with North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program.

McAskill, who has agreed to buy North Korea’s Daedong Credit Bank and advises a fund that seeks to invest in the country, said legitimate bank transfers of all the deposits are needed to demonstrate the U.S. Treasury is not shutting North Korea out of the international financial system. He declined to name the bank or country he would attempt to move the funds to.

“I am not sending a truck, or queuing outside in a trench coat with a battered old suitcase to bring the money out in cash, and neither should the DPRK,” McAskill said, using the initials for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the formal name of North Korea. “The money should and has to be moved through the international banking system to verify both the efficacy and the integrity of the apparent concession by the United States.”

North Korea on Friday said it will only implement a Feb. 13 accord on ending its nuclear program once it confirms “valid” release of the entire $25 million. It missed an agreed upon deadline on April 14 to begin shutting down its nuclear facilities and allowing inspections by the United Nations’ atomic energy agency.

North Korea should “realize fully its commitments under the Feb. 13 agreement by inviting back the IAEA immediately” and sealing the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in a statement posted on the department’s website on Sunday.

Maria de Lurdes Costa, a lawyer and member of Banco Delta Asia’s administration committee, said yesterday that she did not know which if any North Korea-related depositors had been talking with the bank about withdrawing their funds. Even if she knew, “still I wouldn’t tell you,” she said, emphasizing the matters are confidential.

She declined to say if the bank had enough dollar reserves to disburse the full $25 million in U.S. currency. “I would not reply to any of those questions,” she said.

The administrative committee chair, Herculano Jorge de Sousa, received similar queries by fax, a secretary in his office said, but had not had time to respond. The Banking Supervision Department at Banco Delta Asia declined to comment.

The U.S. Treasury ruling that Banco Delta Asia is a “money-laundering concern” becomes final on Wednesday this week, raising the possibility international banks will not do business with the Macao institution. (Bloomberg)

Yonhap
4/12/2007

Saddled with a severe food shortage problem, North Korea is poised to raise people’s standard of living this year by concentrating on agriculture and light industry.

In a session of its parliament held on Wednesday, North Korea said its major economic goal is “to improve the living standards of people on the basis of the existing foundations of agriculture and light industry.”

In a related move, the North replaced Prime Minister Pak Pong-ju, the control tower of its economy. It named Transport Minister Kim Yong-il as its new premier. Pak is believed to have been in conflict with senior North Korean officials over electricity supplies.

“Kim is in his early 60s, relatively young for North Korean cabinet members, and he has no prestigious political or educational background. He seems to be credited by his track record of economic expertise and achievement,” a senior Unification Ministry said, asking to remain anonymous.

The impoverished country has depended on international handouts to feed a large number of its 23 million people.

In a recent meeting with U.N. World Food Program officials, a North Korean vice agriculture minister acknowledged that the communist country has a shortfall of about 1 million tons of food and called for aid from the outside world.

“The cabinet will concentrate state efforts on agriculture this year, too, considering it as a mainstay, to thoroughly implement the WPK’s policy of agricultural revolution and make a signal advance in the efforts to settle the people’s problem of food,” Vice Premier Kwak Pom-gi said in a report to the delegates at the session. WPK is the acronym for the North’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.

To that end, North Korea plans to raise spending on agriculture by 8.5 percent and on light industry by 16.8 percent compared with last year.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il also attended the meeting of the parliament, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.

The North is officially headed by its titular leader Kim Yong-nam, the president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, the country’s parliament.

But Kim Jong-il rules the country with an iron grip. He is officially the chairman of the National Defense Commission and general secretary of the ruling Workers’ Party. He reserves the office of president for his late father as a way of showing filial piety.

The North also said it will kick off a drive to modernize major light industrial factories and reinforce the production of daily necessities, while state efforts will be channeled into the construction of houses in major cities, the KCNA said.

The North earmarked 40.8 percent of the total budget expenditure for the national economy this year, and in particular, spending on the development of science and technology will rise as much as 60.3 percent compared with last year.

Based on the report from the North’s parliament, South Korea’s Unification Ministry estimated the North’s 2007 budget at US$3.09 billion, up 5.9 percent from a year earlier.

Yonhap
Park Hyun Min
4/11/2007

An report estimated that it would cost North Korea 39.7 trillion won (approx. US$ 42.7 billions) during the first 14 years of reform and development.

A report released on the 9th by Managing Director Kim Won Bae and fellow associates of the Northeast Asian Regional Development Center for the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, analyzed the costs required by North Korea to commence essential reform based on agreements made to the resolution of North Korea’s nuclear issues.

On an optimistic premise that North Korea and foreign diplomatic relations normalize and that proactive reform and development policies are implemented, the report forecasted that the North Korean economy would rapidly grow similar to China and Vietnam. Contrastingly, if reform policies remained passive and the normalization of foreign relations delayed, the report predicted that the country would be unable to escape from the adverse state.

The report estimated that a minimum of 23.7 trillion won and maximum 39.7 trillion won would be needed for investments, if active reform were to take place. Retrospectively, if reform were to take a slow stance, then approximately 11.5~26.4 trillion won would be needed.

For every 1 trillion won North Korea invested in construction, the report claimed that it would gain approximately 2.7 trillion won. If South Korea were to invest 1 trillion won in North Korea, then the affect would be a little less with a profit of 2.5 trillion won.

Furthermore, if North Korea development was based on South-North cooperation, then South Korea would have the burden of supporting North Korea 319~698 billion won annually during the first phase (2007~2011), and then an additional 1.29~1.95 trillion won during the second phase (2012~2020).

If the international community became involved, South Korea would only need to support 336~515 billion won annually in the first phase and 651 billion won to 1.11 trillion won during the second.

The report also claimed that the direction of the development on the Korean Peninsula should be based on cooperation between South and North Korea with the possibility of transferring this support to neighboring countries.

Further, basic facilities managed by South-North Korea cooperation would be supervised into three industries and development around the border locations currently separating South and North Korea would be managed by North Korea. This would extend to raw materials and production also.

Mr. Kim who was in charge of the research project said, “Already, cooperation between the South and the North is accurately and effectively taking precedence over the North Korea issue within the international community” and added, “North Korea, the Korean Peninsula, nations interested in understanding North Korea and the international community must join to destroy North Korea’s nuclear development, support the North Korean economy and help solve its issues.”

Joong Ang Daily
Lee Young-jong and Ser Myo-ja
4/7/2007

South Korea hand-delivered $400,000 in cash to North Korea yesterday for Pyongyang’s purchase of video communication equipment. The North will spend the money to buy computers and display screens to reunite families separated for more than a half century by the demilitarized zones through video conference calls.

Two South Korean Red Cross officials boarded a cargo ship in Incheon for Nampo of North Korea Thursday morning. They carried a suitcase containing 40 bundles of one hundred, $100-dollar bills. The ship arrived in North Korea yesterday morning.

According to Red Cross officials, the cash was handed over to their North Korean counterparts at the port. “We told the North Koreans to inform us of the specific spending of the money,” an official was quoted as saying, adding that he received a receipt from the North Koreans for the cash.

The two Koreas’ Red Cross societies agreed last year that the South will fund the equipment for high-tech reunions and the promise was reaffirmed in March. South Korea was unable to provide equipment directly to the North because of U.S. regulations banning the export of dual-use goods to the North. Under the U.S. export administration regulations, strategic goods that include more than 10 percent of U.S.-made components or technology are banned for export to state sponsors of terrorism.

The money was from the inter-Korean cooperation fund. The Unification Ministry wired it to the South Korean Red Cross bank account and informed the Bank of Korea about taking the large sum of foreign currency out of the country. The money had to be hand-delivered because North Korea has had trouble accessing the international financial system since its funds were frozen at the Banco Delta Asia.

“It is sad that the North Koreans do not have a proper bank account that we can wire money to,” a Roh administration official said. “It shows the unfortunate reality of North Korea as an outsider of the international community.”

KCNA
4/5/2007

A carrot approach being taken by the imperialists serves as a lever to carry out their appeasement strategy. This is a very crafty and wicked plot to create illusion about them by appeasing and deceiving their opponents in a bid to benumb their anti-imperialist spirit and completely disarm them ideologically and morally.

Rodong Sinmun Thursday observes this in a signed article.

It goes on:

The above-said approach may bring consequences as dangerous as open aggression by force of arms.

One should not interpret the above-said approach as a sort of change in the aggressive nature of the imperialists. The carrot approach of the imperialists which is bound to be accompanied by appeasement tactics and smiling diplomacy is designed to do harm to their opponents at a slow pace till they prove ineffective in face of their moves for domination and end up collapsing.

It is the aim sought by the imperialists in the above-said approach to create illusion about them and thus put other countries under the yoke of domination and subjugation and gratify their interests.

The imperialists, while acting an “apostle of peace” by abusing the wish of humankind for a peaceful free world, are craftily working to confuse the spirit of people and cause them to harbor illusion about imperialism.

They are intensifying economic domination and subjugation of other countries by such levers as “aid”, “cooperation” and “loan”.

This is eloquently proved by the reality of those countries which have been put under the yoke of political subjugation after receiving the “aid” and “loan” offered by the imperialists as a “kind gesture.”

There will be disastrous consequences for those countries which abandon their revolutionary principle and meet the imperialists’ demand, taken in by glossy words uttered by them as part of their appeasement policy. Worse still, their wrong behavior may lead to the loss of their sovereignty. All countries should, therefore, be vigilant against the imperialists’ carrot approach and should not be tempted by it under any circumstances.

United Press International
Marc S. Ellenbogen
4/2/2007

The most effective way to influence the future of North Korea is through economic development and incentives. The 500 million euro North Korea Investment Fund exists to economically engage the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. While the six-party talks continue — which they should and must — Global Panel and the Prague Society will continue to grow this fund.

At the 4th Session of the North Korea Initiative in Bratislava just weeks ago, there was a consensus that growing the NKIF is a good strategy for engaging the DPRK. The NKIF will be used for entrepreneurial ventures, to provide micro loans, for knowledge transfer, healthcare and for building, energy and infrastructural projects.

The biggest task facing Pyongyang is converting one of the worlds most centrally planned and isolated economies into something remotely resembling a free market. Industrial capital stock is nearly beyond repair as a result of years of underinvestment and shortages of spare parts. Industrial and power output has declined as well. The development of former East Germany cost 1.2 trillion euros. It is calculated that the redevelopment of the DPRK will cost 5 trillion euros. Pyongyang will only allow development if it can simultaneously protect its power position.

In the 1980s companies failed to predict the collapse of the centralized Soviet system. They were wholly unprepared and certainly had few dedicated funds in place (George Soros was an exception) when the changes in Central Europe came about. The NKIF seeks to remedy this mistake by having funds in place that can be used to aid a changing North Korea at the point change takes place. The NKIF targets investors who know a return of investment is years in the future but recognize the need for such a fund.

A prerequisite for the fund’s future success is confidence-building measures. General Dieter Stockmann, the former NATO deputy commander, made comparisons to China. As the head of the bilateral German-China security talks, he noted that “we need access to human resources.” He was quick to point out that the DPRK military will play an indispensable role in the DPRK’s economic future.

Paul Beijer, Sweden’s special representative on Korean peninsula issues, noted that the Australians have experience with micro-loan projects. Others observed that Sweden, Switzerland and the European Union have separately held conferences in Pyongyang focused on economic reform. There have been both government and private — through international foundations — conferences in the DPRK.

Poverty is out of control in the DPRK. The World Food Program and the Carter Center have calculated some 50 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Even the nascent micro-markets have virtually collapsed. The gap between the wealthiest and poorest is staggering — amongst the most dramatic on earth.

Previously, there had been a period when small and middle-sized entrepreneurs had done fairly well in North Korea. Tapping into these existing entrepreneurs must be a key goal of the NKIF. The NKIF must provide educational training for this entrepreneurial class and help it grow. Training, also of those doing the training, will be a specific area to add value.

The selection process will be difficult, and nearly impossible without a physical presence in the DPRK. North Korea is a huge market for the development of a financial infrastructure and financial services. Companies interested in participating in the future can aid in these trainings and seminars, which would give them a chance to get their foot in the door.

One expert commented that the DPRK government is highly compartmentalized and that it is extremely difficult to get the different agencies to sit together. It was suggested that a conference in Pyongyang focusing on a narrow topic — modern accounting, microfinance — might be of value. Eduard Kukan, until recently the long-serving Slovak foreign minister, cautioned that Pyongyang remains very weary of outsiders and that even good intentions could very likely be seen as interference.

Any investment must be linked to certain performance benchmarks. It must be linked to practical steps and an action plan. A critical component must be systems in place to monitor outcomes. At the moment, this is virtually impossible with the DPRK. Many who criticize the concept of engagement believe monitoring to be the weakest link. They argue one cannot make sure investments are being used solely for intended civilian economic and industrial purposes.

It is difficult to engage a country that is essentially disinterested in being engaged or only interested in doing so under very strict conditions.

Even the government in Pyongyang cannot ignore basic facts. It recognizes the problems that exist but fears losing its power base. Any solution must convince the current elite that the future is good for it. This, on the other hand, is a very difficult sell to many who wish to punish the current DPRK government.

Regardless, before the NKIF is put to use, a monitoring process should be in place. And this allows time for the fund to grow and to find its niche.

Daily NK
Han Young Jin
4/1/2007

Singaporean newspaper “Singapore Lianhe Zaobao” reported, “Though the recent BDA issue ended in shambles, Macao and BDA did face some trials” and “With the U.S. able to strangle any county with international financial sanctions, the BDA issue rang alarm bells for illegal acts occurring throughout the world.”

The Zaobao’s online site reported on the 24th, “7~8 small scale family run banks in Macau banks are faced with the threat of closing down as BDA concluded that these banks were acting as North Korea’s ‘laundering black money.’ Macau has been caught in this political issue after being targeted as a place dealing North Korea’s money laundering.” The newspaper also analyzed that the international community had questioned China’s morals.

“All these things have occurred because BDA agreed to supplement North Korea’s gold into dollars” the Zaobao added.

It continued, “During the last 3 years, BDA has exchanged 9.2tons of North Korean gold into $120 million” and “Even last year, North Korea exported gold and silver to Thailand and exchanged $38 million.”

The site reported, “The U.S. is empowering the international financial market and as a result, no financial marketer can oppose the willpower of U.S.” and consequently financial transactions between North Korea and London have ceased. In the past, North Korea had been placing at least 1ton of gold on London markets.

The amount of trade that occurs weekly in London’s gold market equals $2000~3000 million, which in turn equates to 43% of the world’s gold trade. The newspaper pointed out that North Korea’s detachment from London’s markets means that North Korea has now been excluded from the world’s mainstream market.

In the end, even China endured finite investigations as a result of BDA and North Korea’s funds and is now acting in a cautious manner added the report.

In all, the report analyzed that North Korea’s annual production of gold to reach 6 tons.

Washington Post
William Foreman
3/27/2007

A British investor who is buying a North Korean bank said Tuesday he is trying to block the transfer of money it holds in a Macau bank in a move that might complicate a deal with the North to shut down its nuclear programs.

North Korea refused last week to return to nuclear disarmament talks until about $25 million of its funds frozen at a Macau bank is transferred to the Bank of China.

The transfer was supposed to occur last week, but was delayed for reasons that have not been fully explained.

The British investor, Colin McAskill, told The Associated Press he “would take whatever steps necessary” to stop the unauthorized transfer of $7 million of the funds held in Macau’s Banco Delta Asia. He said he has written twice to the territory’s bank regulator, the Macau Monetary Authority, without receiving a reply.

McAskill has agreed to buy North Korea’s Daedong Credit Bank, which is majority foreign-owned, and is representing it in discussions with Macau authorities.

He denied a report that he threatened legal action but said that is an option.

Asked whether the money came from legitimate ventures, McAskill said in an e-mail, “I have answered this question many times and been widely quoted as saying, Yes it is.”

The $25 million was frozen in September 2005 after the U.S. accused Banco Delta Asia of helping North Korea launder money and handle counterfeit U.S. currency.

The move enraged the North Koreans, who boycotted the nuclear talks for more than a year. They recently returned to the negotiations after the U.S. agreed to settle the banking issue. The funds were to be transferred to a North Korean-owned account at the Bank of China to be used for humanitarian purposes in North Korea.

McAskill said Daedong wants to be allowed to move the money to a temporary account at another Macau bank and later move it one of Daedong’s correspondent banks.

The U.S. has decided to cut off Banco Delta Asia from the American financial system, and McAskill said Daedong wants to move its money before that ban takes effect in mid-April, making it difficult to transfer money out of U.S. dollar accounts.

On Monday, a senior Treasury Department official held talks with Chinese officials to try untangle the dispute over North Korea’s frozen funds.

Daniel Glaser, deputy assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, met officials from China’s Foreign Ministry to discuss the money held at Banco Delta Asia, said Glaser’s spokeswoman, Molly Millerwise.

Glaser’s meeting was “positive and cordial,” with officials focused on “solutions to the implementation matters and our common interest in addressing this issue as quickly as possible,” Millerwise said in an e-mail.

A statement from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing said Glaser met with officials from the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, but it gave no details.

The U.S. agreed to let the money be transferred to a North Korean account at the Bank of China in Beijing, but the release was delayed by the Chinese bank’s concerns about accepting money that had been linked to counterfeiting and money-laundering.

Joong Ang Daily
Lee Sang-il
3/26/2007

North Korean bank allegedly gave counterfeit U.S. $100 notes to a foreigner working for the United Nations Development Program when he cashed a check at a bank in Pyongyang in 1995, a diplomatic source in Washington told the JoongAng Ilbo.

A spokesman for the UN agency confirmed the suspicion, adding that the bills will be handed over to the U.S. Treasury Department for verification.

In 1995, the UNDP’s Pyongyang office issued a check to an Egyptian consultant for his services on a North Korea project.

The consultant claimed that he cashed the check at the Foreign Trade Bank in Pyongyang and that the bank gave him 35 $100 bills.

After returning home, the consultant attempted to exchange the bills for Egyptian currency, but the bills were rejected as fakes, the source said.

The Egyptian sent the bills back to the UNDP office in Pyongyang, and the UN officials confronted the Foreign Trade Bank and asked for real money, the source said. The request was turned down, and the UN agency has been holding the bogus bills for 12 years.

The revelation of the incident highlights charges by the American government that North Korea has been passing so-called “supernotes” ― fake $100 bills ― for many years. Washington’s claim that Banco Delta Asia in Macao was a conduit for the release of the notes was one reason for the freezing of $25 million in North Korean funds in September 2005.

That money is now due to be released as a precondition for progress in the six-party talks. The U.S. has cut the suspect bank’s access to the American financial system.

In an e-mail interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, David Morrison, spokesman for the United Nations Development Program, said the agency is in the process of giving the notes to the Treasury Department. Mr. Morrison said he was not aware of any other incidents.

Mr. Morrison added that the Egyptian consultant has not provided further evidence that the bills were passed by the Pyongyang bank. He also said that UNDP had used Banco Delta Asia to send money to the North to finance projects from January 2000 to December 2002. He said they chose the bank for its convenient financial services.

Asked if North Korea asked the agency to use Banco Delta Asia, Mr. Morrison said it was an independent decision. He said the UN body stopped transactions with the Macao bank when the settlement currency was changed from dollars to euros.

UNDP opened its office in Pyongyang in 1980 and has carried out public hygiene, agricultural, energy and environmental projects.

Chris Gelken has an interesting insight into the Banko Delta funds…

“It was quite a rude awakening to hear on the news that my money was going to be used for charity,” the holder of an account with the Macau-based Banco Delta Asia told me on the condition that I didn’t reveal his identity.

“What needs to be understood,” he said, “is that not all the funds belong to the North Korean government, but that a substantial amount belongs to private customers.”

Bloomberg quoted Colin McAskill, chairman of the London-based fund Koryo Asia Ltd, as saying he contacted the Macau Monetary Authority warning them that the money held by private businesses based in Pyongyang did not belong to the North Korean government and must not be included in the proposed transfer to settle the 18-month dispute between the North and the U.S. Treasury.