Archive for the ‘Energy’ Category

China sends soft signal to DPRK

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009

According to Bloomberg:

China suspended government exchanges with North Korea after Kim Jong-Il’s regime last week tested a nuclear device and fired short-range missiles, Yonhap News said.

China has halted plans to send officials to North Korea and won’t accept visits from Kim’s government either, the Korean- language news agency said today, citing unidentified diplomatic sources in Beijing.

China’s foreign ministry has said the country “resolutely opposes” North Korea’s nuclear test. China on May 25 agreed with the U.S., Japan and Russia to work toward a United Nations Security Council resolution censuring North Korea. The U.S. and Japan want the statement to call for cutting the communist country’s global financial ties, UN diplomats said.

This is slightly more significant than the “tough talk” Beijing is dishing out to the DPRK in the Chinese press. According to Voice of America:

China’s state-run media these days are running stories bluntly criticizing North Korea.  

Tuesday’s English edition of the Global Timesnewspaper quotes Chinese North Korea analyst, Zhang Lianggui, as saying the catastrophe of a mishandled North Korean nuclear test is “an unprecedented threat” to China.

Monday, the paper quoted Tsinghua University professor Sun Zhe as saying North Korea’s nuclear test has apparently spoiled the traditional bonds between the two countries, saying Pyongyang no longer follows Beijing.

 And according to Reuters:

The top item on the Chinese website of Beijing’s embassy in Pyongyang is a condemnation of North Korea’s nuclear test.

That, and a recent blast of blunt criticism of North Korea in China’s state-run press, suggest the rancor that officials feel toward their communist neighbor — anger likely to bring Beijing behind a U.N. resolution condemning the May 25 test and threatening fresh sanctions.

North Korea’s second nuclear test took place 85 km (53 miles) from China’s border, and the tremors from the blast forced many schools on the Chinese side to evacuate, wrote Zhang Lianggui, a prominent Chinese expert on the North.

He warned of catastrophe if Pyongyang mishandles a nuclear test.

“Future generations of the Korean people will have no place of their own, and China’s reviving northeast will burst like a bubble,” Zhang wrote in the Global Times, a popular tabloid, on Tuesday.

“This is an unprecedented threat that China has never faced in its thousands of years.”

The web page of the PRC embassy in Pyongyang is here.  I do not see any of this language on their page.  The top line states “DPRK top leader inspects industrial, farm facilities” and the main story says “Year of China-DPRK friendship aims at enhancing bilateral ties.”  Additionally, in the section devoted to Chinese media on the DPRK, the last story was posted on July 4, 2007.

Read the full story here:
China Suspends North Korea Exchanges, Yonhap Reports
Bloomberg
Kyung Bok Cho and Dune Lawrence
5/31/2009

China Withholds Talk Tough Toward North Korea 
VOA News
6/2/2009

China anger with North Korea echoes in the press
Reuters
6/2/2009

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Equity markets erase DPRK nuclear test worries

Wednesday, May 27th, 2009

According to Forbes:

The upbeat U.S. consumer confidence figures as well as Japan’s improving trade data wiped out worries over North Korea’s recent belligerance, boosting Asian shares across the board on Wednesday.

Tokyo shares opened higher after the U.S. Conference Board said overnight that the U.S. consumer confidence index surged to 54.9 in May from 40.8 in April, the biggest monthly jump since April 2003, and better than the market consensus of 42.3.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 1.5% to 9,446.80 after the midday break. Investors placed buy orders after Japan’s exports showed modest signs of recovery in April.

Read the full article here
Asian Markets Up on US Confidence
Forbes
Vivian Wai-yin Kwok
5/27/2009

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Commodity price decreases vs. sanctions

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

Writing in Reuters, Lucy Hornby and Tom Miles point out that the DPRK faces greater economic uncertainty from falling commodity prices than from new sanctions.  Below I have posted excerpts and charts:

Lower commodity prices may prove more painful to North Korea than the tightened sanctions, which will likely blacklist certain firms known to deal in military goods.

“Sanctions won’t have a big effect, they won’t change their actions,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

“There will be no impact on trade with China, which is mostly grains and basic materials … Sanctions may have some influence on luxury goods, but only a weak effect on overall trade volume.”

The isolated country’s $2 billion annual trade with China, equal to about 10 percent of the North’s annual GDP, is its most important economic relationship.

North Korea profited from strong prices for minerals and ores over the last few years, ramping up exports of zinc, lead and iron ore to resource-hungry China.

Most of those exports have dropped again since last summer, in line with sharp decreases in metals prices buffeted by the global economic crisis.

china-trade.jpg

The North’s mineral deposits could be worth $2 trillion, according to an estimate by the South’s Korea Resources Corporation. But dilapidated infrastructure and a broken power grid hinder mining and the transport of minerals out of the country.

The irregular pattern of North Korea’s alumina imports implies that its smelter only runs in fits and starts. Other ore exports are equally ragged, possibly indicating that North Koreans are only digging the easily accessible ores.

Chinese companies that have tried to invest in North Korean mines complain of constant changes in regulations and report that the North tries to tie mining access to commitments to build mills and other industrial projects.

“China and North Korea are friendly neighbors and we will continue to develop friendly cooperative relations with North Korea,” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said on Tuesday after the North’s withdrawal from the six-party talks.

Diplomats’ expectations that China might use trade to influence its prickly neighbor rose when China cut off crude oil shipments in September of 2006, as North Korea prepared to test a nuclear bomb. It had tested ballistic missiles that July.

In fact, energy trade data shows that China is reluctant to apply trade pressure. Increased oil products shipments offset the brief cut in crude supplies in 2006.

“The imposition of these sanctions (in 2006) has had no perceptible effect on North Korea’s trade with the country’s two largest partners, China and South Korea,” wrote Marcus Noland, of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Data since early 2006 show that Chinese crude shipments have in fact been overwhelmingly consistent, at 50,000 tons a month.

china-trade2.jpg

North Korea has imported very little Chinese grain since the 2008 harvest, reflecting the better harvest. Flooding and a disastrous harvest in 2006 and 2007 required heavy imports of grains from China in those years.

Chinese corn shipments to North Korea since August have dropped to 2,670 tons, from 136,595 tons in the previous twelve months and 32,186 tons in the year before that.

Rice and soybean shipments show a similar pattern.

china-trade3.jpg

Read the full story below:
Little leverage left for North Korea sanctions
Reuters
4/14/2009
Lucy Hornby and Tom Miles

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North Korea Google Earth

Wednesday, March 11th, 2009

North Korea Uncovered v.16
Download it here

laurent-kabila.jpg

The most recent version of North Korea Uncovered (North Korea Google Earth) has been published.  Since being launched, this project has been continuously expanded and to date has been downloaded over 32,000 times.

Pictured to the left is a statue of Laurent Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo.  This statue, as well as many others identified in this version of the project, was built by the North Koreans. According to a visitor:

From the neck down, the Kabila monument looks strangely like Kim Jong Il: baggy uniform, creased pants, the raised arm, a little book in his left hand. From the neck up, the statue is the thick, grim bald mug of Laurent Kabila (his son Joseph is the current president). “The body was made in North Korea,” explains my driver Felix. In other words, the body is Kim Jong Il’s, but with a fat, scowling Kabila head simply welded on.

This is particularly interesting because there are no known pictures of a Kim Jong il statue.  The only KJI statue that is reported to exist is in front of the National Security Agency in Pyongyang.  If a Kim Jong il statue does in fact exist, it might look something like this.

Thanks again to the anonymous contributors, readers, and fans of this project for your helpful advice and location information. This project would not be successful without your contributions.

Version 16 contains the following additions: Rakwon Machine Complex, Sinuiju Cosmetics Factory, Manpo Restaurant, Worker’s Party No. 3 Building (including Central Committee and Guidance Dept.), Pukchang Aluminum Factory, Pusan-ri Aluminum Factory, Pukchung Machine Complex, Mirim Block Factory, Pyongyang General Textile Factory, Chonnae Cement Factory, Pyongsu Rx Joint Venture, Tongbong Cooperative Farm, Chusang Cooperative Farm, Hoeryong Essential Foodstuff Factory, Kim Ki-song Hoeryong First Middle School , Mirim War University, electricity grid expansion, Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (TSLG)” is also known as the “Musudan-ri Launching Station,” rebuilt electricity grid, Kumchang-ri suspected underground nuclear site, Wangjaesan Grand Monument, Phothae Revolutionary Site, Naedong Revolutionary Site, Kunja Revolutionary Site, Junggang Revolutionary Site, Phophyong Revolutionary Site, Samdung Revolutionary Site, Phyongsan Granite Mine, Songjin Iron and Steel Complex (Kimchaek), Swedish, German and British embassy building, Taehongdan Potato Processing Factory, Pyongyang Muyseum of Film and Theatrical Arts, Overseas Monuments built by DPRK: Rice Museum (Muzium Padi) in Malaysia, Statue de Patrice Lumumba (Kinshasa, DR Congo), National Heroes Acre (Windhoek, Namibia), Derg Monument (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia), National Heroes Acre (Harare, Zimbabwe), New State House (Windhoek, Namibia), Three Dikgosi (Chiefs) Monument (Gaborone, Botswana), 1st of May Square Statue of Agostinho Neto (Luanda, Angola), Momunment Heroinas Angolas (Luanda, Angola), Monument to the Martyrs of Kifangondo Battle (Luanda, Angola), Place de l’étoile rouge, (Porto Novo, Benin), Statue of King Béhanzin (Abomey, Benin), Monument to the African Renaissance (Dakar, Senegal), Monument to Laurent Kabila [pictured above] (Kinshasa, DR Congo).
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Korea Business Consultants Newsletter (1/09)

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

Korea Business Consultants has published their January newsletter.

Here is a link to the PDF.

Topics covered:
New Year Joint Editorial
Year of DPRK-China friendship
UNDP to resume DPRK operations
Buddhist Leader to Head DPRK’s ROK Affairs
DPRK Railroad Engineers Study in Russia
Housing Construction Progresses Apace
Orascom Opens Bank in Pyongyang
DPRK Tackles Clothing Shortage
“DPRK Harvest Best in Years”
China to Invest in NK Coal
US$ 3.75 Million in Australian Aid for DPRK
The Principles of the DPRK’s Foreign Trade
ROK Farmers Send Rice to DPRK
New SNG Kaesong Plant Idle
“Inter-Korean Trade Slides Due to Weak ROK Won”
ROK to Build Nursery in Kaesong Complex
DPRK Opens Consulate in Dandong
DPRK, China Foreign Officials Meet
Seoul Forum Highlights DPRK Films
“NK Martial Arts Team Best in World”
PUST Opening Delayed
DPRK TV Takes Note of Park Ji-sung
The Korean War

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North Korean party delegation visits Britain amid hopes for restart of dialogue

Friday, January 30th, 2009

By Michael Rank

asha_centre.jpg

Pictured above on the left: Pak Kyong Son, Vice Department Director of the Korean Workers Party Central Committee.  Pictured on the right: Glyn Ford, Member of the European Parliament.
Photo by Irina kalashnikova, [email protected]
www.irinakalashnikova.com

LONDON – Britain is hosting the first ever delegation from the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) amid hopes that this will help to restart a dialogue between Pyongyang and the European Union on human rights, denuclearisation and other issues and lead to transfers of renewable energy technology to North Korea.

Labour Party member of the European Parliament (MEP) Glyn Ford, one of Europe’s top North Korea experts who has visited Pyongyang a dozen times, told NKEW that he was pressing the delegation to agree to reopen the dialogue that was broken off in 2005 after the EU sponsored a resolution at the United Nations in Geneva that was highly critical of North Korea’s human rights record.

He said it was hard to tell whether the four-member delegation would recommend reopening of the dialogue to decision-makers in Pyongyang. “It’s not the style of North Korea to make decisions on the spot,” Ford noted. He said he personally had opposed the resolution, which was supported by the US and Japan, because it was almost certain to result in suspension of the highly sensitive dialogue which had only just begun.

The four-man delegation is visiting Britain for a week and they are also going to Bristol and Cambridge. Ford accompanied the group to Bristol as this west of England city lies in his Euro-parliamentary constituency, and it is close to the possible site of a giant barrage across the river Severn which is currently being considered as a source of generating green electricity.

He said a deal on the nuclear issue and on reviving the human rights dialogue could result in the EU agreeing to provide wind, tidal and other renewable technology to North Korea, just as the EU has provided €500 million ($640 million) in humanitarian aid over the last eight years.

The delegation includes a scientist with a background in renewable energy, added Ford who has an MSc in marine earth science. He said the west coast of Korea has a tidal range of 11 metres (36 feet), which could make it highly suitable for an electricity-generating barrage. The Severn has a tidal range of 14 metres, the second highest in the world.

Tidal barrages are an attractive means of generating electricity because tides, unlike wind, are highly predictable, but the environmental cost of building a barrage over the Severn, up to 10 miles long, could be huge and there is considerable public opposition to the plan. But such factors are likely to loom less large in North Korea.

Ford said he had met three of the four-man delegation on previous visits to Pyongyang, and that he knew two of them fairly well. He is hoping to visit Pyongyang again with a European Socialist delegation at the end of March.

The group have already had a meeting with Foreign Office officials, who Ford said had presumably also pressed the North Koreans on human rights and the nuclear issue.

Apart from the North Korean visit to the UK, Britain’s Lord Alton, a veteran campaigner for human rights in North Korea, is due to visit Pyongyang early next month. Alton, a devout Catholic, is scheduled  to meet the chairman of Korean Religion Association and visit the Russian Orthodox church and the Jangchung Catholic church in Pyongyang. He will be one of the first Western visitors to the Russian Orthodox church, which opened in 2006 amid considerable official fanfare.

The WPK delegation’s visit to Britain has received little if any media attention so far. In fact hardly anyone would have known about it if the generally extraordinarily uninformative North Korean news agency KCNA had not announced on January 27 that “A delegation of the Workers’ Party of Korea led by Pak Kyong Son, vice department director of its Central Committee, left here today to visit the UK.”

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Daily NK reports DPRK train wreck

Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

From the Daily NK:

A source from Yangkang Province reported on the 27th in a telephone conversation with the Daily NK that, “On the 15th in Woonheung, 8 freight wagons carrying a total of 480 tons of gasoline and diesel overturned at dawn. The National Security Agency and the provincial security agency are examining the causes of the incident.”

In Youngha Workers-gu, which adjoins Baekam where this incident occurred, a train on the Hyesan-Pyongyang line overturned on March 27th, 2008, killing or wounding hundreds.

According to the source, there were 16 casualties, including merchants and an engineer on the freight train. 8 freight wagons completely overturned, causing the spill.

Right after the incident, North Korean authorities mobilized citizens to deal with it and dispatched the NSA to examine the causes.

The source said that, “As the train was going down a slope, a blackout occurred so the brakes did not work. However, the NSA presumes it happened deliberately, because similar incidents have occurred in this region.”

The North Korean authorities have been claiming to citizens that such incidents, which happen every year in Youngha Workers-gu, Woonheung and Baekam in Yangkang Province, are maneuvers by enemies. However, no criminals have been detained.

Thoughts:
1. The DPRK’s railway system is outdated to say the least.  Many of the lines were laid during the Japanese occupation of the peninsula (pre-WWII).  After the Korean war, large sections were reconstructed, but needless to day, for the last 50+ years the system has suffered severe under-investment.  Recently it has been targeted as a major focus of the policy to create a “strong and prosperous nation” by 2012. 

2. We know from multiple tourists that the Pyongyang-Sinuiju line is operational.  We now know that the line from the Russian border to Pyongyang is operational.  Other than these two lines, the functionality of the DPRK’s railway system is largely a mystery to the outside world.

3. The Daily NK also reported a DPRK railway accident in April 2008 (here and here).

4. No word yet on whether the DPRK purchased life insurance for the passengers!

5. An excellent map of the DPRK’s railway system can be downloaded to Google Earth here.

6. You can read past blog posts about the DPRK’s railway system here.

You can read the full Daily NK story here:
Freight Train Overturned in Yangkang, 16 Casualties
Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
1/27/2009

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DPRK outlines region-specific economic growth plans

Saturday, January 24th, 2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
Nk Brief No. 09-1-23-1
1/23/2009

Following the recent North Korean New Year’s Joint Editorial and its calls for economic measures, on January 5, more than 100,000 people attended a rally in Pyongyang at which customized economic tasks were presented for each of the North’s provinces, taking into account each region’s particular industrial concentration or specialty.

According to North Korean media reports on January 20, Pyongyang stressed reforms in steel, power, coal, railway, and other sectors it considers ‘Priority Sectors of the People’s Economy.” It also presented tasks for the promotion of housing construction, refurbishment of pig farms, and the increase in production of farms and light industries providing daily necessities to the people of the North.

South Pyongan Province was tasked with increasing the production of ‘Juche’ steel’ at the Chollima Steel Complex, which kicked off the “new revolutionary upsurge” late last year during an on-site inspection by Kim Jong Il, as well as full operation of the newly built ‘superpower electric furnace’, and called on all the people of the province to increase production of organic fertilizer in order to boost food production.

For North Pyongan Province, “mass reforms” for the metalworks sector and concentrated efforts to increase electrical production at the Supung and Taechon power plants were called for. In addition, increased production at the Kujang Earth Colliery Complex, Rakwon Machinery Complex, and the Sinuiju Cosmetics Factory were ordered, as was the institution of advanced agricultural management methods.

Efforts in South Hwanghae Province are to be focused on increasing iron ore mining and scrap iron collection at sites such as the Eunryool and Jaeryung mines, and agricultural production goals are to be met through the introduction of high-yield crops and double-cropping.

North Hwanghae Province was ordered to focus on increasing production at the Hwanghae Iron Complex, the Yesong River Youth Power Plant No. 1, the 2.8 Madong Cement Factory, the Sariwon Poultry Farm, and the Sariwon Pig Farm. In addition, high-yield crops are to be introduced and construction of irrigation systems is to begin, as land management efforts are to be implemented in order to expand agricultural land in Mirubol. North Hwanghae Province is also to build a new library, a new arts theater, and a new housing.

In South Hamgyung Province, efforts are focused on construction of the Keumya River and Keumjin River Guchang power plants, as well as improving mining capacity at the mines in the Danchun area while renovating production facilities at the Sudong Mines. Aggressive promotion of construction on the second stage of the 2.8 Vinylon Complex was also emphasized. Provincial authorities were also ordered to complete the initial stage of refurbishment in the Heungnam Pharmaceutical Plant, improve production at the Kwangpo Duck Farm and the Hamju Pig Farm, and accelerate home construction in Hamheung City.

North Hamgyung Province was tasked with perfecting ‘North Korean-style steel production methodology’ at the Kim Chaek Iron Complex and Sungjin Steel Complex, and modernizing exploration, mining and processing equipment at the Musan Mining Complex in order to boost output, along with bringing the Seodusu Power Plant and Chungjin Thermoelectric Power Plant fully on-line. Another important task prioritized was the completion of the second stage of the Urangchun Power Plant.

In Kangwon Province, construction of the Wonsan Army-People Power Plant, increased production at the Munchon River Ironworks, modernization of the Wonsan Shoe Factory and the Wonsan Textiles Factory, and the refurbishment of the Munchon Poultry Processing Plant were emphasized, along with the diversification of management in farming communities in order to resolve food shortage problems.

Ryanggan Province, in the northern Gosan region, was tasked with improving management of the Samsu Power Plant, which entered service in May 2007, and construction of the Baekdu Mountain Military-first Centennial Power Plant and other electrical facilities, and the establishment of a ‘hometown of potatoes’ for the quick increase in potato cropping.

The Jagang Province was tasked with modernizing its metalworks sector and increasing electrical production at the Gangye Youth Power Plant and Janga River Power Plant, construction of small and medium-sized power plants, and increasing its logging production. Jagang Province was also tasked with normalizing production in its pig, duck, and chicken factories, and software development for local organizations was emphasized as a priority task for the Electronic Business Research Institute in Ganggye City, which was visited by Kim Jong Il after its grand opening last year.

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DPRK looks to sell (un)spent fuel rods

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

UPDATE:  A reader points out in the comments that the DPRK is in fact looking to sell its remaining UNUSED fuel rods…so I made a fairly substantial mistake here.  My confusion on the subject seems to have come from my reading of the Joong Ang Ilbo‘s coverage, but I take full responsibility for not paying close enough attention to the other stories.

Here is the specific quote: “The North asked us to focus on discussing how to handle the spent fuel rods as much as possible” (Joong Ang Ilbo)

The revised facts:

1. The DPRK has 14,800 fresh fuel rods—equivalent to just over 100 tons of uranium (RIA Novosti)
2. The materials are reportedly worth over US$10 million (Yonhap). 

ORIGINAL POST:
Hwang Joon-gook, a South Korean diplomat in charge of the denuclearization talks with Pyongyang, led a team of South Korean officials and civilian nuclear experts on a fact-finding mission to the DPRK  to decide whether to buy Pyongyang’s spent fuel rods.

The facts:
1. The DPRK has 14,800 spent fuel rods (Joong Ang Ilbo)
2. This is equivalent to just over 100 tons of uranium (RIA Novosti)
3. The materials are reportedly worth over US$10 million (Yonhap). 
4. The rods are apparently up to 15 years old (Yonhap).
5. The US alleges that the DPRK is enriching uranium as well.  Richardson has more information here.

Just last week, Selig Harrson reported that the DPRK told him “it has already weaponized the 30.8 kilograms (67.8 pounds) of plutonium listed in its formal declaration and that the weapons cannot be inspected.” This amount of plutonium could fuel four or five warheads.

According to NTI:

“Even if the D.P.R.K.-U.S. diplomatic relations become normalized, our status as a nuclear-armed state will never change as long as the U.S. nuclear threat to us remains, even to the slightest degree,” said the [DPRK’s] Foreign Ministry, which issued a similar message several days earlier.

For its own reasons, Russia does not consider the DPRK a nuclear power despite the fact that they have detonated a nuclear device—a fact that would raise eyebrows across the DPRK if reported by the local media. In fact, it was the Russians who supplied the DPRK with the Yongbyon reactors in the first place!

In support of Russia’s position, however, Yonhap offers the following:

North Korea detonated its first atomic device in 2006. The relatively small underground test had less than a kiloton in yield, below what is considered a successful nuclear test.

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Russia to complete fuel supplies to DPRK this month

Monday, January 19th, 2009

According to RIA Novosti:

Russia is to supply a total of 200,000 metric tons of fuel to North Korea as part of a denuclearization deal. Moscow hopes that in exchange for heating oil deliveries Pyongyang will complete the phasing out of its Yongbyon nuclear complex.

The full article can be found here:
Russia to complete fuel supplies to N.Korea in Jan.
RIA Novosti
1/16/2009

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