Archive for the ‘Price liberalization’ Category

Rice price up 40-fold in last year

Thursday, December 2nd, 2010

According ot the Korea Herald:

The price of rice in North Korea has soared nearly 40-fold in the year after the country’s botched currency reform.

Rice is now traded at around 900 North Korean won per kilogram in Pyongyang’s markets, according to online media outlet Daily NK. This is up 3,990 percent from 22 won late November last year in the newly introduced currency.

The North knocked two zeros off the face value of its old currency on Nov. 30 last year, exchanging 100-won bills for new 1-won notes. Therefore the price of a kilogram of rice, which was 2,200 won in the old currency, was redenominated to 22 won.

Under the currency reform plan, a 100-won note in the new currency should have the exchangeable value of a 10,000-won bill in the old currency. However, due to 4,000 percent inflation, the new 100-won note is now only worth 250 won in the old currency.

The price of rice in North Korea is deemed the benchmark of all prices in commercial trade.

“The apparent purpose of the North Korean currency reform was to reduce the amount of money in the markets to stabilize prices, but it failed to achieve this due to an absolute lack of commodity supplies,” said Cho Myung-chul, a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

“The fact that rice prices jumped 4,000 percent based on the currency’s exchangeable value shows that the effect of the 100-fold revaluation has mostly disappeared.”

After major markets in the reclusive state were shut down in mid-January this year, rice prices in Pyongyang soared, hitting 1,300 won per kilo in early March. They dropped to the 400-won range in May as markets began to function again, but soared over the 1,000-won mark in August due to an exchange rate hike and damage caused by heavy rains.

When the North redenominated its currency, it placed a cap on the amount of money that could be converted per person, telling people to deposit the rest in state-run banks.

The measure, which was aimed at crippling the growing merchant class and reasserting control over market activities, tightened the distribution of food and stirred anti-regime sentiment.

This Daily NK story asserts that the average salary of a general worker is around 1,500 won a month, and it is not paid regularly.

Read the full story here:
N.K. rice price soars nearly 40-fold in a year
Korea Herald
Kim So-hyun
11/20/2010

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Food and the winter of 2010-11

Wednesday, November 10th, 2010

Click image to see all the prices

According to the Daily NK:

Winter is a tough time for average North Koreans, with a number of demanding economic issues to deal with. This year, as the traditional season for making “kimchi”, the indispensible side dish on any Korean dining table, approaches, ingredient prices in the market are become a focus for concern.

This is only the second winter since the currency redenomination of November 30th, 2009. Since then, prices have fluctuated unpredictably throughout the year due to various economic and political uncertainties. As a result, the overall situation now is not radically different from the period of high prices before the redenomination.

According to one inside source from North Hamkyung Province who spoke with The Daily NK on November 9th, “Wealthy people will have already finished preparations for heating and kimchi by the end of October; however, those belonging to underprivileged groups have not even prepared the kimchi for winter yet.”

According to the source, Chinese cabbage, the core constituent of the most popular form of kimchi, was being sold for as much as 100 won/kg and white radish for 60 won/kg in the market in Hoiryeong in North Hamkyung Province in recent days. The core seasonings for many forms of kimchi, garlic and dried red chili pepper powder, were being sold for 3,800 and 4000 won/kg respectively.

On October 25th, 2009, shortly before the currency redenomination, Chinese cabbage was being sold for 200 won, white radish for 150 won, garlic for 3,000 won and dried red pepper powder for 7,000 won in the same market. Thus, many of the effects of the currency redenomination appear to have been disguised by price inflation.

For a family of four, 500kg of Chinese cabbage and 300kg of white radish is needed to see them through the winter. To meet that requirement in full would, at current prices, require 50,000 won for cabbage and 18,000 won for white radish. Add in the price of the seasonings, including salt and green onion in addition to garlic and red pepper powder, and the total price is close to 100,000 won.

Other aspects of winter life are no less problematic. Heating is one example. For a household burning coal, a couple of tons are burnt between November and March. Currently, the price of coal in Hoiryeong market is around 20,000 won per ton. Meanwhile, houses which are heated with wood need roughly enough to fill two ‘Seungli-58’ trucks, or approximately five tons. Such a quantity costs 50,000~60,000 won (7,000 won/cart in Hoiryeong) at the current market price.

Another key factor in a comfortable winter is vinyl for shielding houses against the winter wind. This is now selling for 400 won/m. Most North Korean houses have three windows, to which people living in North Hamkyung and Yangkang Province apply two layers of vinyl, meaning that each household needs ten meters on average, including that to cover the door.

Therefore, taking Hoiryeong market as the average, people need a minimum of 150,000 won to prepare for the winter. When the average North Korean worker’s salary is between 1,500~3,000 won, it is clearly very hard for most to endure the winter in comfort.

According to the source, “The conditions in a household are revealed by the amount of dried red pepper powder in their winter kimchi. An affluent family’s kimchi is red and appetizing, but an poor family’s kimchi is like white kimchi with a few pieces of dried red pepper powder on the top.”

Read the full story here:
The Chilly Economic Wind of Winter
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
11/10/2010

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Prices and exchange rates increase following currency re-denomination

Thursday, October 28th, 2010

According to the Korea Times:

In North Korea, the price of rice and currency exchange rates have been on a roller coaster ride since the failed currency reevaluation last November, a ruling party lawmaker said Thursday.

In a booklet, titled “Collection of National Assembly’s Annual Audit: North Korea 2010,” Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun of the Grand National Party claimed that creating a thriving market is the key to resolving economic problems in the Stalinist society.

North Korea watchers said the presence of a free market was the result of the communist party’s halt of the public food distribution system after the devastating famine hit the impoverished economy in the wake of massive floods in the mid 1990s.

The lawmaker released the booklet based on data and reports from the Ministry of Unification.

According to him, the price of one kilogram of rice was approximately 20 won before the currency reform. But it skyrocketed after that and hit 1,000 won early this year.

The range in the price of rice in late July reached between 1,300 and 1,500 won.

Along with rice prices, Yoon said foreign exchange rates were on a volatile up and down fluctuation as well.

The exchange rate for the North Korean won against the U.S. dollar was 30 won per dollar. But the dollar rate was rapidly appreciated to 1,000 won per dollar this March and rose further to 1,300 won per dollar.

Citing a unification ministry’s report, Yoon said some 300 to 350 markets were open in the North and there are one or two markets for every country [sic:  “county”].

North Korean authorities implemented the currency reform last year in order to repress the markets, but the failed results proved their bold miscalculations, he said.

Read the full story here:
Rice prices on a roller coaster ride in N. Korea
Korea Times
Kang Hyun-kyung
10/28/2010

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Prices and DPRK/$USD exchange rate

Thursday, October 21st, 2010

According to Bloomberg:

The two sides of Chang Gwang Street (Satellite image here) in North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang show the gap between the Stalinist country’s elites and its capitalist-minded citizens. On one side, English-speaking officials mingle with Dutch traders at the Koryo Hotel. There, those with foreign currency can buy Heinekens for about a buck a can at the official exchange rate of 100 North Korean won to the U.S. dollar.

Across the street, a saleswoman at one of the private markets still allowed by the authorities giggles when a foreign guest says he doesn’t have the 200 won needed to buy a steamed vegetable bun. She flips the placard to reveal the cost in dollars, the currency of a country that doesn’t have diplomatic ties with North Korea. The price: 20 cents, implying an unofficial exchange rate of 1,000 won to the dollar.

Old Asia hands say this is one of the biggest spreads between the official and unofficial currency rate they have ever seen in the region. Back in the 1980s the gap between the official and market rates in China was not nearly as great as in North Korea today, says Ken Dewoskin, a director of Deloitte’s China Research and Insight Center in Beijing, who began his career watching China in the mid-1960s and first traveled there in 1977. “Even closed economies like Cambodia in the 1960s had only a 2-to-1 pricing discrepancy,” he says.

President Kim Jong Il moved late last year to revalue the won and limit the amount of cash that North Koreans could exchange for newly printed bills. The policy was designed to clip the wings of the private merchants who were increasingly creating an economy beyond the control of the authorities, according to the University of Vienna’s Rüdiger Frank, a political scientist who specializes in North Korea. The impact of the abrupt policy shift extended far beyond the merchants. “The revaluation not only wiped out people’s savings, but their trust in the government and their currency,” says Ha Tae Keung, founder of Open Radio for North Korea. “There’s a widespread belief among North Koreans that their money is going to get further devalued and they’ll get poorer just by holding onto it.”

The currency turmoil came amid mounting speculation that Kim Jong Il’s health was failing. Last month he promoted his son, Kim Jong Un, to four-star general, setting the stage for the country’s second hereditary power transfer. The government extended an unprecedented invitation to international media to witness the Oct. 10 anniversary celebrations marking the 65th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

The next day, Pyongyang residents queued up as usual to spend their won at the Chang Gwang Street market. Twenty-four shoppers patiently lined up to buy a small cone of vanilla ice cream at 20 won each. A similar number waited for shaved ice with sweet bean paste at 5 won a bowl. Fifteen were there to buy sweet potatoes at 60 won per kilo. No one was seen lining up to purchase sausages, which at 1,700 won each were priced at the equivalent of 16 cans of Heineken beer at the Koryo Hotel.

While price tags at the hotel are in won, the national currency isn’t accepted there. That wasn’t a concern for guests and shoppers buying foreign goods—Scotch whisky and Syrian olive oil were on offer—with dollars, euros, and Chinese yuan.

One hotel worker, who said he made about 2,500 won a month, said the government provided people with food and other necessities such as clothing and housing. The free markets like the one across the street were there to supplement their diets, he said, adding: “We don’t operate like a capitalist country.”

Read the full story here:
In Pyongyang, the Dollar Commands Respect
Bloomberg
Michael Forsythe, Bomi Lim, Frances Yoon and Zeb Eckert
10/21/2010

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Party conference pushing up food prices

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010

According ot the Daily NK:

Since the North Korean security forces have been on special alert for the last two weeks in advance of the Delegates’ Conference, there has been a contraction in market activity, and this is forcing up rice prices.

In September, when farmers normally start harvesting, rice prices tend to drop, but because regular citizens do not know when the Delegates’ Conference is going to start, things are not easy this year.

A source from North Hamkyung Province told The Daily NK yesterday, “In Hoiryeong Market, rice was 1,000 won per kilo in late August, but today it is 1,300 won. The reason is that the special alert has been in force for around two weeks in the run up to the Delegates’ Conference, so there is less food trading going on.”

During any “special alert,” which the authorities impose in preparation for important political events, controls over migration and so-called “anti-socialist” activities are reinforced on pretexts of national security and rooting out espionage agents. The selling of rice is one thing which is subject to control.

Meanwhile, the most desirable corn is currently worth 750 won per kilo, according to source. This is corn produced last year; newly harvested corn costs 500 won. People tend to prefer old corn to this year’s corn because when they put it in water to cook, its volume increases more.

The source also explained that the people know exactly who to blame, saying, “People are complaining that last spring the authorities irritated them in order to wage war against South Chosun, and now they are being bothered with the Delegates’ Conference, which is still on hold.”

“Due to a crackdown on ‘grasshopper traders’ around markets, only traders who can afford a stall within the market can do business,” he went on. “It is natural for rice prices to rise because there are fewer rice sellers.”

Grasshopper trader means one who does business in alley markets, moving location in order to avoid the authorities.

The source noted, “In late October or early November, food prices may stabilize, but I am not sure because flood damage was so serious this year.”

With rising rice prices, exchange rates also rose; in Hoiryeong, one Yuan is now worth 235 won, which is 10% more than in late August.

See Andrei Lankov’s comments on the delay in the party conference here.

Read the full story here:
Conference Security Hitting Cost of Rice
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
9/14/2010

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Clandestine video of post-flood Sinuiju

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

The video was originally released by the Choson Ilbo, but the Telegraph (Britain) has posted a high-quality version of it:

Click image to link to video

According to the Telegraph:

The video, obtained by Chosun Ilbo media agency, shows people [in Sinuiju] living in tents on streets with their water damaged belongings. Others can be seen buying water from a salesman.

The price of water has increased since the floods, according to the agency’s source, with a bowl costing 6 pence. The usual monthly wages are around £1.30.

Heavy rains in July and August have hit food production that, even in a good year, falls a million tonnes short of the amount needed to feed North Korea’s 23 million people.

According to the Chosun Ilbo, North Koreans in Shinuiju were complaining about the government and their inability to help the area properly.

Last week the South Korean government offered to provide £5.5m in emergency aid, including food, relief materials and first aid kits – but not rice nor construction equipment, as per Pyongyang’s request.

North Korea’s request was made through the Red Cross at the weekend, and is being reviewed, the Unification Ministry said in a statement.

South Korea has been reluctant to give rice to the North because it is worried it will not reach the people who need it most.

Pictures of the flooding can be found here.

Read the full story here:
Rare footage from inside North Korea reveals aftermath of floods
Telegraph
9/7/2010

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Recent fees and taxes in the DPRK

Monday, September 6th, 2010

According to the Daily NK:

North Korea is a “Tax-free country,” according to one of its many propaganda slogans, but this is contradicted by defector testimony, which suggests that residents carry a very heavy burden. According to defectors leaving the country after the North’s currency redenomination, North Korean people pay at least 20 to 30 percent of their monthly living expenses in the form of quasi-taxes to the state.

Since the redenomination, the minimum cost of living for a family of four has been in the vicinity of 50,000 to 60,000 won: around 35,000 for food and some 10,000 for other day-to-day necessities.

Next, North Korean residents pay at least 15,000 won for electricity and other utilities to the state.

Water and sewage and electricity cost, in total, around 1,000 won. Additionally, people have to give 30 percent of the earnings from their private fields every year. For a private field of around 40 pyeong (approximately 132m²), which is the general area for a single household, the farmer of the land has to pay around 3,000 won on average per month in usage fees, according to defectors.

In addition, if one adds other kinds of funding such as that for various kinds of local construction, military aid, fees for child education etc, the sum easily surpasses 10,000 won.

One defector, who arrived from Onsung in North Hamkyung Province in July of this year, said, “An elementary school in Onsung is instructing students to collect 10kg of apricot stones. If they cannot do that, the school forces them to give 5,000 won in cash. There are many cases of students who are unable to provide the apricot stones quitting school since they do not want to suffer under the burden.”

Another defector, who escaped from Hoiryeong in December last year, said, “Kim Ki Song First Middle School students had to pay 30,000 won every each three months for a school beautification project. However, many workers’ children were not able to tolerate that situation and quit.”

Another, who arrived in June from Hoiryeong, explained, “Even though the people were having to get food for themselves because of the absence of food distribution, the authorities took dogs, rabbits, leather or scrap from us all the time and, in addition, for the construction of a road, they pushed us to provide them with cement and bricks, so we had to offer all our income for several days.”

Besides all of this, the around 30 percent of people who do not have their own house have to pay at least 30,000 won in monthly rent.

Then, those who do businesses in the jangmadang have to pay between 300 and 2,000 won for each stall per day.

A defector, who did business in Chongjin until she defected in July last year, said, “The Provincial Committee of the Party took 300 won from each stall every day, and used 60,000 won of that for official expenses, gas for cars and entertainment for other cadres.”

Defectors say that the reason why the number of vagrants, so called kotjebi, has been increasing is also that they cannot afford to pay those fees.

Needless to say, while general people are weighed down by this heavy burden, high cadres in the Party, military or foreign currency earning bodies accumulate property through corruption, privilege, access to foreign currency earning businesses and the like, and enjoy their luxurious lives in high-class apartments in Pyongyang.

One defector who escaped from Pyongyang in February this year explained, “Since the currency redenomination, the preference for products rather than cash has been striking, so the price of apartments has risen a lot. In 2007, an apartment by the Daedong River was around $60,000, but now it is around $80,000 or $90,000.”

“While running errands, I visited one such apartment where high officials lived several times. It was amazing. They had foreign TVs, refrigerators and many other appliances. They used Korean or Japanese cosmetics and their shoes were all designer.”

A diplomat from the U.K. who visited Pyongyang in April, recently told the media that when he dropped by a fast food restaurant in Pyongyang most of the guests were students and some of them were wearing blue jeans and carrying cell phones.

The defector from Pyongyang criticized, “Newly built pizza or fast food restaurants in Pyongyang are like a playground for high officials’ children,” and concluded, “General local people are now struggling to feed this privileged class.”

The Daily NK conducted the interviews with defectors in this article with people who had just passed through the education course at Hanawon (the South Korean resettlement education center for North Korean defectors).

Read the full story here:
Tax Free North Korea Exists Only on Banners
Daily NK
Shin Joo Hyun
9/2/2010

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Regular food rations not provided as Prices Soar and food shortages grow in DPRK

Friday, August 6th, 2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-08-06-1
8/6/2010

Over the last five months, regular food rations have not been provided even to those in the capital city of Pyongyang, indicating the severity of food shortages in North Korea. According to the ROK Ministry of Unification, rice and corn were added to the list of goods with controlled prices in at least one market in Pyongyang. A list of controlled goods with state-set upper price limits has been distributed to each market throughout North Korea since 2003. While prices may vary slightly, comparing them with earlier price caps gives a good indication of the availability of goods.

The July appearance of rice and corn on the list of restricted goods, neither of which has been on the list even as far back as February, when strict market controls were enacted in the aftermath of failed currency reform measures, indicates that the ration system is not operating normally, even in Pyongyang. It also means that not only are officials not receiving normal rations, but that average residents are relying more on markets for their food. One Unification Ministry official stated, “Rice was on the list of controlled goods in markets outside of Pyongyang in February, but couldn’t be found in markets in the capital city…in July, rice and corn emerged [as items with price caps] in Pyongyang markets.” The official also explained that as the food ration system collapsed even in Pyongyang, the issuance of price caps on rice and corn was an indication that more people were turning to the markets to buy these staples.

Looking at other goods on the list, it appears that agricultural goods cost 3~7 times more in July than in February, and manufactured goods were as much as 7 times more expensive. Necessary goods, both agricultural and manufactured, have grown considerably more expensive in North Korea over just five months. More specifically, beans were up 3.6-fold; chicken, 3.3-fold; lettuce, 3-fold; apples, 6.3-fold; rice and corn, 2-fold. Ball-point pens and other daily-use items were up 5~6-fold. In July, rice sold for 550 won per kilogram, while corn was priced at 280 won per kilo.

The price caps are upper limits set by North Korean authorities, but the reality is that goods are often sold at higher prices. The shortage of agricultural goods, and the fact that the Chinese Yuan has appreciated 3-fold since February, has led to these record price-hikes. On May 26, Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) authorities issued a decree, “Regarding Korea’s Current Food Situation,” calling for residents to fend for themselves. As prices skyrocketed on agricultural goods, one measure adopted by North Korean authorities has been to more than double exports of iron ore from Musan, North Hamgyong Province to China, while drastically increasing the import of corn. This increased import of corn has brought down the price of rice from 1,200 to 900 won per kilogram in Musan, while corn itself has fallen from 600 to 500 won. On the other hand, the drop in the foreign currency exchange rate in mid-July caused a shortage of dollars, driving the price of rice up to as high as 1,200 won per kilogram in some regions.

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DPRK issues rule on bank deposits

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

According to the Daily NK:

North Korean authorities released a public announcement that they will exchange deposits, consigned to the Chosun (North Korea) Central Bank during the currency redenomination in November last year, into new bills at the rate of 100:1 within the limit of 500,000 won.

Last November the North’s authorities announced that they will exchange the existing denomination, to a limit of 150,000 won per household, to the newly issued bills at the rate of 100:1. They urged people to deposit their remaining cash into the bank.

However, many citizens have refused to follow the instructions after previous experiences with forfeited deposits during the country’s fourth redenomination in 1992.

This measure is designed to work towards curing the hardships of residents caused by the decline in value of individual property since the last redenomination. There are hopes that it will stimulate market activity by increasing the amount of money in circulation, particularly since a downturn in purchasing power amongst the people led to an economic depression.

However, even after the Central Bank’s announcement the people remain apathetic. A source said that, “Prices have risen to similar levels as before the redenomination. Rice now costs over 1,000 won per kilogram; when you get back your deposit of 5,000 won you can only buy five kilograms of rice. It’s meaningless.”

If the state-designated price of rice, around 24 won per kilogram in procurement stores, had been maintained then this measure would be significant. Now the prices have multiplied by 50 and the people say that the measure is nothing but a play on words.

In addition, February saw the authorities hand down a decree to raise all state-designated prices by 100 times to levels known before the redenomination. The decree was not applied to people’s deposits in the bank, a fact that has received criticism from the public. A source commented that, “The authorities actions are nonsense. They raised prices by 100 times but people’s deposits were the same value as last year. It is ridiculous.”

Read the full sotry here:
Bank Deposits Can Be Withdrawn at 100:1 Rate
Daily NK
Park In Ho
7/29/2010

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Hikes in prices and exchange rates again shake DPRK markets

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-07-19-4
7/19/2010

Market prices in North Korea, which had been falling since March, have again begun to grow since the second week of July. This year’s prices have not followed the trends normally seen in the North; usually, prices fluctuate around the April~May lean crop season. According to a Daily NK source within North Korea, rice cost 450-500 won/Kg at the Hyeryeong Market, in North Hamgyeong Province, up until the end of June. However, prices had shot up to 750 won/Kg by July 13. Corn had also risen to more than 400 won/Kg. Along with the rise in prices, the exchange rate for won-to-yuan rose to 150:1, indicating that the value of the North Korean won had plummeted to a very low level.

Since the mid-2000s, as market economics expanded in the North, food prices tended to shoot up during the lean season of April~May every year. After potato and barley harvests in late June, prices again rise until September, when food prices tend to drop in anticipation of fall grain harvests. Because of this trend, most market traders spend November and December concentrating on buying up food stocks, and they then actively sell their food stores after April. Government authorities have also been known to stockpile food at the end of a year in order to resell after April at considerably higher prices. This regular fluctuation of prices also leads most North Koreans to stockpile all the food they can in December and January.

However, with the currency reform efforts enacted last November 30, North Korea’s food prices set off on a very different trend. Because the North Korean authorities closed markets after last year’s currency reform, January rice prices soared to sixty times as much as before the reform measure. Markets were allowed to reopen after February 5, but food prices remained unstable through mid-March. As the food stockpiling that North Koreans needed to do in December was delayed until March, spring sales were driven more by demand than by supply.

At the beginning of April, Pyongyang authorized the distribution of a small amount of food. Residents of the capital city received enough corn to get through May and June, and these rations, along with rumors of food imports following Kim Jong Il’s trip to China, helped stabilize prices. However, this stability faltered after less than two months. Anticipated Chinese food imports never materialized, and authorities discussed food shortages. In May, North Ham Province party officials released an order titled ‘Each unit is to resolve the food problems in the latter half of the year’. The lack of food and confidence circulating even at government levels again undermined market stability.

A continually soaring exchange rate also drove up prices. The won-to-yuan rate had climbed to 110:1 by June, and in late July has risen to 150:1. North Korean prices rise with the exchange rate, so without food price stabilization measures from the government, food costs will likely continue to grow.

Traders in Hyesan, Yanggang Province have more freedom to trade than most in North Korea, and are permitted to cross over into China once every two weeks in order to purchase goods to sell in North Korean markets. However, prices in the region continue to grow as demand cannot be met, due in part to the rising exchange rate that makes it increasingly expensive to import Chinese goods.

In the aftermath of the currency reform, North Korean authorities have released some food originally slated for military use and enacted measures to force down prices in an attempt to sooth the public. But, these attempts provided only temporary stability, and cracks are again appearing under the weight of rising exchange rates.

North Korea is planning to hold the first meeting of Party leaders in 44 years, and the state media has been emphasizing the economic successes of Kim Jong Eun in order to shore up support for him. Despite the press, however, average citizens in the North only see rising prices. Recently, due to the harvest season, Hyesan markets have been open only between 3:00 and 7:00 in the afternoon. Despite the limited hours, when doors open there is no apparent crackdown on prices or on the use of foreign currency, and markets are operating freely. However, since increasing numbers of North Koreans find themselves broke after the currency reform, sales are still slow.

The North’s economic situation is likely to get worse. Flooding during the July-August rainy season could have a detrimental impact of fall harvests. Farms already suffered from frosts in the spring, raising expectations that this year’s harvests will be lean. If fall harvests are light, concerns over food could grow, further destabilizing the food markets. Food prices are expected to continue to rise, and if this inflation impacts other goods, as well, disturbances such as those seen in January are likely to occur.

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