Archive for the ‘Economic reform’ Category

Kaesong reporting regulations eased

Tuesday, July 4th, 2006

Yonhap
7/4/2006

South Korean companies will be able to make remittances to their operations in an industrial complex in North Korea without having to make a prior report to the authorities in Seoul, the Finance Ministry said Tuesday.

The ministry said it has amended regulations governing remittances to North Korea to help South Korean companies operating in the inter-Korean industrial complex in Kaesong, just north of the heavily-armed demilitarized zone that divides the two Koreas.

Financial remittances to North Korea had previously needed to be reported to the Bank of Korea, South Korea’s central bank.

According to the ministry, a branch of South Korean lender Woori Bank that is located in the industrial complex will serve as the intermediary bank.

A total 13 South Korean companies are currently operating in the industrial complex, a key product of the 2000 summit between the leaders of the Koreas that boosted reconciliation and cooperation programs involving the two countries.

The number of South Korean companies in Kaesong is expected to reach 300 when the first phase of construction is completed next year. Seoul believes the industrial city will be able to house as many as 2,000 South Korean firms by 2012 when the complex is fully developed.

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Korea Business Consultants

Friday, June 30th, 2006

Their web page is here, but it looks like they have not updated it in a while.

According to their website,

[KBC is]  among the first to identify the opportunities that North Korea could offer to enterprising companies. As a result, KBC clients benefit from our considerable experience and well-established contacts with this hard-working and largely industrial nation which finds itself on the threshold of fuller integration with the world economy. We believe the significant economic changes that have started to unfold will create major business opportunities for foreign companies with the right strategy.

In the DPRK market, we work with (and for) our customers to secure business and investment opportunities, manage relations, provide effective business solutions and oversee the process of entering the North Korean market.

Specifically, they offer a newsletter.  The sample issue they have displayed is quite old, so I am not sure if it is still published.

They also promote business delegations (with golf) and trade exhibitions, such as the Pyongyang International Trade Fair (PITF),  and the International Technology and Infrastructure Exhibition in Pyongyang

And on the implementation side, Korea Business Consultants offers a full range of financial, legal and transportation services, including:

  • Project finance, legal advice and analysis of tax and investment laws of the DPRK.
    Investment seminars to attract inward investment: planned for 2002 – with DPRK support and involvement.
  • Participation in DPRK’s expanding and regular Trade Fairs and Exhibitions.
    Trading partners to facilitate the trade of commodities/metals and a full range of other DPRK goods.
  • Network of partners in London, Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Switzerland, Seattle and Toronto.
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ROK to promote knowledge sharing with DPRK

Thursday, June 29th, 2006

From the Korea Times:

Seoul to Promote Knowledge Sharing With N. Korea
By Kim Sung-jin
Staff Reporter

The government Thursday said it will continue to promote various projects to exchange economic knowledge with the reclusive North Korea.

Vice Finance and Economy Minister Bahk Byong-won said Thursday that private economic cooperation between the South and the North has become brisker than ever with the Kaesong Industrial Complex and North Korean tourism projects getting into full swing, but inter-government cooperation is still very limited.

“What we need more than anything else to further advance the cooperative inter-Korean economic relations is an extension of knowledge-sharing programs with the North,” Bahk said. He made the remarks at a conference on knowledge sharing for the economic development of North Korea at the Westin Chosun Hotel in downtown Seoul.

Participants in the conference included the Asia Foundation’s country representative in Korea Edward Reed, head of political section of the Delegation of the European Commission to Korea Maria Castillo Fernandez, former Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation’s (SDC) North Korean office resident director Rudolf Strasser and Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) president Lee Kyung-tae.

As Bahk noted, government-level economic exchange programs between the South and the North are still very limited although Seoul and Pyongyang agreed on revising a plan to dispatch economic inspectors across the demilitarized zone (DMZ) at the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation talks held on Cheju Island between June 3 and 6.

“The Korean government will make consistent efforts to widen knowledge sharing with the North as well as with the international community,” Bahk said.

“We also hope that academia, non-government organizations and international organizations will play a leading role in extending inter-Korean knowledge sharing programs,” he added.

Annual inter-Korean economic transactions, including the transaction of merchandise and services such as tourism, have made a significant improvement over the past five years regardless of the political tension on the Korean Peninsula. They expanded to $1 billion in 2005 from some $200 million prior to the inter-Korean Summit held in 2000.

Meanwhile, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) said Thursday that inter-Korean economic transaction, or trade, expanded 30 percent in the first five months of this year, thanks to vibrant industrial activity in Kaesong just across the inter-Korean border.

Between January and May, inter-Korean economic transactions amounted to $428.63 million, up 34.4 percent from the same period last year.

In the cited period, North Korea-bound South Korean goods jumped 35.4 percent to $264.97 million, and imports from the North increased 32.9 percent to $163.66 million.

Inter-Korean economic transactions are forecast to expand sharply next year as the number of South Korean manufacturers moving into the Kaesong industrial complex will reach 300 with the completion of the first phase of the industrial park construction project, up from current 15.

Seoul plans to help Kaesong house as many as 2,000 South Korean firms by 2012 when the complex is fully developed.

From Yonhap:

South Korea will intensify efforts in technical assistance and training for North Korea in order to help the communist state’s economy grow further, a government official said Thursday.

“We should help the North to enhance its understanding of economic principles and their operation mechanism, which will guarantee us more substantial and enduring results from economic assistance to North Korea,” Vice Finance Minister Bahk Byong-won said in a speech at a forum titled “Knowledge Sharing for Economic Development of North Korea.”

“Material assistance without economic knowledge and managerial capacity cannot contribute to sustainable economic growth,” he said.

Bahk said excessive transaction costs caused by the lack of adequate knowledge about economic principles, practices and international economy on the North Korean side have posed bigger threats to economic development than anything else.

“Some have suggested that inter-Korean cooperation has proceeded at a slow pace, but despite a rapidly changing environment, inter-Korean economic cooperation has shown remarkable strides,” he said.

Inter-Korean trade volume, which stood at US$2 million-$3 million before the 2000 inter-Korean summit, reached $1 billion last year, making South Korea the second-largest trading partner of North Korea, the official said.

Also, personnel exchanges and movement between South and North Korea have never been more frequent than recently, he said.

Bahk said economic cooperation between the Koreas, which has been regarded as one-sided, has also shifted to the one that is reciprocal and serves mutual interests, he said.

“South Korea, international organizations and nongovernmental organizations should seek to create synergies by exerting concerted efforts through sharing information among ourselves with regard to the knowledge-sharing experience with North Korea,” Bahk said.

The South Korean government will not spare any effort to vitalize knowledge sharing with North Korea for its economic development in close partnership with the international community, he said.

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China And North Korea To Build Hydroelectric Dam

Thursday, June 29th, 2006

From Industry Week:

June 29, 2006 — China and North Korea have signed an agreement to build a hydroelectric dam on the Yalu river which borders the two nations, state media reported June 28.  The deal was signed on Tuesday in Pyongyang between China’s Changchuan Hydroelectric Power Co. Ltd. of Jilin province and North Korea’s electric power and coal industry ministry.

China will fund the 350 million yuan (US$43.75 million) Wenyue Hydroelectric Project, while the infrastructure will be built in North Korea. The dam will have a capacity of 40,000 kilowatts although the electricity will be used in North Korea where power supplies are far more scarce.

Construction on the dam is expected to begin in September and will be completed in three years. The Chinese side will provide equipment for the dam.

Under the agreement the North Korean side will repay the investment on the dam to the Chinese side from proceeds from electricity sales.

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What are the origins of reform in the DPRK?

Wednesday, June 28th, 2006

Daily NK
6/28/2006

Would a governmental transition in North Korea be realized bottom-up, or top-down? On the 23rd of last month, a forum addressing North Korean governmental transition was held in the Conference Hall at Sejong Center.

Professor Choi Wan Gyu of the North Korea Graduate School estimated that, “At the end of the 1980’s, witnessing the sudden changes and the collapse of the Soviet Union and other Eastern European communist countries, our government [the ROK] and North Korea experts predicted that North Korea would undergo similar processes relatively soon, although North Korea has not, as of yet, shown any signs of a governmental shift or a collapse”.

Professor Choi pointed out that, “Unlike the Eastern European countries, the North Korean political system is one of hereditary totalitarianism. Because high-ranking officials and government organizations are ceaselessly reconstructed and controlled by one top leader, a self-regulating system cannot exist and therefore a nonviolent governmental shift is not an option”.

Governmental transition will be possible only through bottom-up revolution

He claimed that, “Under the hereditary totalitarian system, a top-down transition would be impossible, and only bottom-up attempts, such as mass demonstrations or protests, will lead to a change in the system”.

Yet, will bottom-up demands for a governmental transition, like those that occured in Romania, East Germany, and the Czech Republic, be possible in the case of North Korea?

According to Professor Choi, the possibility of a bottom-up transition is unlikely. Such a shift, through revolution, would require repetitive and gradually increasing mass demonstrations and protests, which currently are not taking place in North Korea.

He explained that such demonstrations are not occuring in North Korea, even after the dramatic economic crisis of the 1990s, because most North Koreans lack the motivation to induce such a change, and in North Korea there are no telecommunication and information distribution tools with which to gather anti-governmental forces and encourage mass demonstration.

Using the Romanian case as an example, Professor Choi explained that, “Compared to other Eastern European communist countries, the civil society in Romania was not powerful. Romania was able to induce a change with the help of Hungarian TV, Free Europe Radio Broadcasting Network, and the information distribution strategies of numerous international civil rights organizations”.

Top-down reformation following Chinese liberalization is necessary

However, he pointed out that after the 2000 South-North Korea Summit Conference, the South Korean broadcast to North Korea shifted in tone, to one of encouraging conciliatory gestures, cultural exchanges and cooperation towards North Korea, rather than urging the liberalization of North Korea, as in the past.

Professor Choi explained that a bottom-down shift in the North would be impossible because, “North Korea has no experience with capitalism, mass demonstrations against the government, democratization, or any sort of counter culture which would replace communism and the Juche ideology”.

He added that, “The core reason why North Korea has stayed stable in spite of the worst crisis since its establishment is because of the unique social control and monitoring system within the country”.

He concluded that, in order to initiate a change within the North Korean government, we should help North Korea pursue active reformation and liberalization policies, helping to solve the economic crisis and move away from the communist system we, including South Korea, the U.S. and China, should implement policies that enable North Koreans to use information telecommunications networks.

While internal changes will be difficult, pressure from neighbor countries will help

On the other hand, another participant at the forum, Professor Lee Dong Bok of Myung Gi University, refuted Professor Choi’s argument, saying that, “Because North Korea has a strong hereditary, idolatrous system established, the possibility of a bottom-up change is unlikely”.

Professor Lee claimed that with Chinese reformation and liberalization as a model for top-down governmental transition, a strategy which first removed the nation’s top leaders from a position of authority and idolatry, was necessary in order to make the transition possible.

Professor Park Seung Sik, of the Unification graduate program at Dae Jin University pointed out that, “It is unrealistic to assume that provided with information and telecommunications networks, the North Korean people would be encouraged to participate in revolutionary activities within such a completely controlled society”.

Professor Park asserted that, “If a North Korean governmental transition is not possible through ruling class or mass demonstrations, it is necessary that neighbor countries such as South Korea, the U.S, Japan, China and Russia impose pressure on North Korea, encouraging its reformation and liberalization”.

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China’s interest in the future of the DPRK

Wednesday, June 28th, 2006

from the Joong Ang:

Chinese specialists on Korean affairs have revealed greater concerns about the political stability in North Korea than at any other time since the height of the North Korean food crisis in 1996-97.

Chinese concerns do not necessarily mean that the political leadership in Pyongyang is near a collapse, but they reveal that China’s crisis is primarily about North Korea’s economic and political stability, not its nuclear weapons.

Chinese analysts are preoccupied with a fundamental dilemma in pursuing stability in North Korea: unless North Korea pursues reform and opens up, it cannot survive, but reform and openness could lead to political instability in North Korea, to the detriment of China’s own interests.

China’s primary objective is to prevent instability while simultaneously encouraging North Korea’s economic reform ― not to denuclearize North Korea as the United States desires or to promote South Korea’s unification aims. The exchange of summits in recent months between Hu Jintao and Kim Jong-il has strengthened China’s political influence in North Korea. Chinese investments in North Korea’s energy and other sectors and the widespread availability of Chinese products in North Korean markets have raised anxieties in Seoul that China is making North Korea into China’s “fourth northeastern province.”

China’s economic rise has given it new tools for promoting the stability of weak states on its periphery. Chinese government-led investments and cheap products are providing China with the decisive political influence to stabilize weak or failing state structures in neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Laos and Myanmar, as well as North Korea.

Chinese specialists recall their own experience with opening and reform, and fret that North Korea cannot claim a “peaceful environment” in which to pursue reform as long as there is nuclear confrontation with the United States. The Chinese want the United States to lessen tension and promote an environment conducive to North Korean economic reform.

North Korean leaders focus on the security threat from the United States, but the greatest enemy of the North Korean system is the penetration of external goods and information and the development of self-interest and individual choice as real options for the North Korean people. These bottom-up changes are eroding North Korea’s corporatist, leader-centered ideological controls and transforming the relationship between the individual and the state.

The rapid emergence of legal and illicit cross-border market interactions that have mushroomed outside state-level political controls in China or North Korea are the real threat to the North’s political stability. The seeds of North Korea’s demise, ironically, are likely to be “made in China,” not the United States.

Certainly, China prefers a Korean Peninsula that is friendly to China, or alternatively the maintenance of North Korea as a strategic buffer. Chinese analysts remain suspicious of American intentions. They believe a U.S.-North Korea confrontation is in America’s interest and that President Bush’s hopes for a peaceful, unified, free and democratic Korean Peninsula must be resisted.

Chinese analysts know that change in North Korea is inevitable, but they claim that there is no alternative to Kim Jong-il’s leadership, in which they have made a significant political investment. Despite North Korean efforts to restore political controls, disaffection with the top leadership that was almost unknown a decade ago is gradually spreading with the flood of external cultural influences that has invaded Pyongyang. This development is most worrisome to Chinese analysts concerned about North Korea’s stability.

It is no accident that Chinese military forces moved closer to the border with North Korea in recent years.

Military analysts admit that Chinese contingency plans are in place to intervene for “environmental control” to secure nuclear weapons and fissile materials in the event of regime instability, but the primary objective would be to protect China from the spillover effects of chaos in North Korea. Likewise, the United States surely has its own plans to secure North Korean “loose nukes” in the event of political instability, regardless of possible political or legal obstacles to such an intervention.

Given the low level of U.S.-Chinese military-to-military relations and high level of strategic distrust over the future of North Korea, there is no effective mechanism for official dialogue between the United States and China to mitigate the possibility of accidental conflict in the event that more than one state tries to secure “loose nukes” during political instability in North Korea.

The 2001 crisis involving an American intelligence aircraft brought down on Hainan Island revealed the risks that derive from poor channels of communication.

Regardless of whether or not North Korea’s regime is likely to fail or become unstable, there is a need to address such contingencies and clarify proper courses of action.

Advance discussions among the three countries might minimize the prospect of a conflict between special operations forces from the United States, China, and/or South Korea in any race to secure North Korea’s “loose nukes” during a period of regime crisis in the North. 

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South Korean Red Cross to aid DPRK

Wednesday, June 28th, 2006

From the Korea Times:

South Korea’s Red Cross will provide $400,000 (a little over 388,000,000 won) to its North Korean counterpart along with 10 buses and 6 cars to facilitate more on-screen reunion meetings of family members separated by the inter-Korean border.

The provision is in line with an agreement both sides signed earlier this month through an exchange of letters via the Panmunjom truce village.

According to the agreement, the South will provide the North with cash and vehicles for promoting family reunions and will also give the North necessary materials for building on-screen family reunion centers in the North at the earliest possible date.

The North, for its part, will concretely inform the South of its use of the money, vehicles and materials, the agreement says.

South Korean Red Cross officials will also be allowed to inspect on-screen family reunion center construction sites.

The two Koreas started operating on-screen family reunions through video link on Liberation Day, Aug. 15 last year. Four on-screen sessions have so far been held, while 14 face-to-face reunions have been held since August 2000, including the ongoing session at Mt. Kumgang in the North.

“Most of the separated family members have become aged and, considering this trend, we need to resolve the issue as early as possible,’’ a South Korean Red Cross official said. “To expand the on-screen family reunion sessions, we concluded that the North needs to be equipped with more facilities for on-screen reunions.’’

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Western businesses tour Kaesong complex

Monday, June 26th, 2006

From Joong Ang Daily:
June 26, 2006

KAESONG ― Even in the sweltering heat of a June afternoon, hundreds of hands were moving diligently, cutting and pasting on production lines of a factory floor that seemed just like any other.

But this plant was no ordinary capitalist factory: Workers here wore Kim Il Sung buttons and were laboring in the workers’ paradise of North Korea, one of the few remaining militant communist countries in the world.

Last week about 100 foreigners representing some 70 companies got a first-hand look at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a North Korean industrial park fueled by South Korean capital and mostly North Korean labor.

As Kim Dong-keun put it, Kaesong was a hot battlefield during the Korean War but is now a symbol of inter-Korean reconciliation. Mr. Kim is the head of the complex’s management committee.

The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency and Hyundai Asan organized the investment program. According to officials from the South Korean organizers, this was the first opportunity for a large group of potential foreign investors to get a look at what was there.

The group toured three South Korean factories; Taesung Hata, a cosmetic package manufacturer; Samduk Stafild, a shoe manufacturer; and ShinWon, a fashion outerwear manufacturer.

The Kaesong Industrial Complex is amazingly close to the Demilitarized Zone, a 60-year-old relic of wars hot and cold. The complex, which is still far from completion, is visible from the immigration office at the North Korean edge of the DMZ.

The mountains surrounding the complex were almost naked. “The trees were cut as a military strategy to observe enemy movements,” a South Korean blue-collar worker for Hyundai Asan said. “But it also seems that the North Korean people cut trees to use as firewood.”

The modern industrial site was a stark contrast to its surroundings, where farmers were plowing paddy fields with oxen, a sight that has vanished from rural areas south of the DMZ. The complex was fenced off with barbed wire. “It was necessary to separate the industrial complex from the general population because many North Koreans could sneak in and take away raw materials,” a Hyundai Asan official said.

The new plants were well air-conditioned. As many foreign investors on the tour commented, the workers were well-organized. The only sound to be heard in the factories was that of the machinery. The workers did not even glance at the unusual visitors, and trying to get a hint of a smile or a friendly nod was impossible. Even the South Korean workers at Kaesong were very careful in their actions. Some advised journalists against taking pictures of North Korean workers, because it might cause problems.

The only North Korean who spoke to the visitors, other than the inteperter, was a man who criticized U.S. intervention in North Korean human rights issues.

“If the United States keeps raising the issue of human rights,” he said, “there is a huge chance that we might not let their companies such as Pentium enter the Kaesong Industrial Complex.” He evidently was referring to Intel, which makes Pentium computer central processor chips.

An official of Taesung Hata, who said he had been living in Kaesong for a year, noted that the most challenging part of his job was that the workers in North Korea have no concept of factory work. Living in a non-capitalist society, he said, they were untrained to use machinery.

The South Korean said it took some time to train the North Koreans even to use western-style bathrooms. “They were squatting on top of the seats,” he said.

The trip came during a time when tension was rising in the global community over North Korea’s missile launch preparation.

But most of the touring businessmen said security issues didn’t bother them. Business was business, they said, and should be dealt with differently than politics. “Investors tend to take the longer view,” said Charles Henry of Tupperware.

John Boynton, Doran Capital Partners’ chief executive officer, said cooperation was better than distrust and that he didn’t think Kaesong had any serious security concerns to worry about, but he was speaking of physical security at the site. “Look around the world,” Mr. Boynton continued, “the World Trade Center, London ― Spain is as dangerous as Kaesong is.”

Jean-Daniel Rolinet of Samsung Thales, a defense contractor, said he had been worried that the missile tensions would cause the trip to be canceled. “I’m glad we’re here,” he said; the tour made him realize the quality of the work being done there.

“I would recommend Kaesong to the French community,” Mr. Rolinet said.

Whether for the ears of journalists and the tour organizers or out of real conviction, many other foreigners in the group said they were positive about Kaesong and would invest there. Labor costs seemed to be the biggest attraction. North Korean workers at the site receive $57.50 per month on average, pay that can rise to $70 per month with overtime. But those wages, a Hyundai Asan official explained, are paid to the central government, not to the workers.

Pressed about when those investments might arrive, however, most said it would be far in the future. “Kaesong Industrial Complex is surely impressive,” said Gordana Hulina, a risk manager at ING Bank, “but it is clear that Kaesong is for the most part a Korean-based project.”

One foreign investor said she thought most of her companions were there just out of curiosity, to see a country that is for the most part closed off to them.

Most of the visitors refused to comment on the U.S.-Korea free trade negotiations, where Korea is pushing to have goods produced in Kaesong treated as South Korean goods. The United States says it cannot accept that proposal.

Several visitors seemed hesitant, however, about the project’s future, citing policy inconsistencies in North Korea and the dearth of information about the nation. 

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Kaesong products poison pill for trade agreement

Monday, June 26th, 2006

from the Korea Times:

The top U.S. envoy in Seoul has expressed serious concerns about the status of products made in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, North Korea, labeling them “poison” to the currently negotiated free trade agreement (FTA) between South Korea and the United States, a source said Monday.

The products made in the Kaesong Industrial Complex could poison the negotiating process of the South Korea-U.S. FTA and later the ratification process in the U.S. Congress, the source quoted U.S. Ambassador to Seoul Alexander Vershbow as saying during the Korea-U.S. Business Council meeting in Seoul last week.

Vershbow requested that Seoul exclude the goods made in Kaesong from the FTA negotiation agenda and asked Korean officials to explain to Korean lawmakers the U.S. position since it could dampen the FTA talks, the source said, asking not to be named.

Though Seoul was aware of U.S. opposition to the idea that products made in Kaesong are considered Korean products in trade, it did not expect Vershbow to be so negatively disposed to Seoul’s proposal.

The Seoul government has been trying to include the Kaesong products with other South Korean goods in the FTA negotiations with the United States as in its FTAs with Singapore, ASEAN and EFTA.

The Kaesong Industrial Complex is the flagship of inter-Korean business cooperation where 15 small and mid-sized South Korean companies operate, employing some 7,000 North Koreans.

Meanwhile, the ambassador hinted at the possibility of South Korea joining the visa waiver program (VWP), which allows visitors from countries to enter the United States for up to 90 days without a visa.

In response, Trade Minister Kim Hyun-chong said that if the United States includes South Korea in the VWP, it will be welcomed by South Koreans and helpful for the successful conclusion of an FTA between the two countries.

However, a participant in the meeting, who wanted to remain anonymous, said that he got the impression that the U.S. ambassador tried to use the visa waiver as a wild card to lead the FTA negotiations in favor of the United States.

“From a legal viewpoint, the FTA has nothing to do with the visa waiver. The Korean government must keep this in mind,” he said.

Eligibility requirements for nations to join the visa waiver program include a visa refusal rate of 3 percent or less for two consecutive years.

The annual meeting of the 19th Korea-U.S. Business Council ended last week, announcing its full support for the Seoul-Washington FTA.

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DPRK economic battle-groud between ROK/PRC

Monday, June 26th, 2006

From the Joong Ang Ilbo:

During the JoongAng Ilbo’s 10-day survey of North Korean economic venues in May, North Korea’s high dependence on China was very prominent. Noting that trend, North Korea experts in Seoul recommended that South Korea make efforts to increase its industrial investment in the North to assist the failing economy and allow it to make ends meet. Donating food and other aid, they said, was contrary to the aphorism, “Give a man a fish and he can eat for a day; teach him to fish and he can eat for a lifetime.”

Throughout the trip from May 11-20, North Korean officials proudly displayed a series of automated factories, calling them the models of the reclusive communist country’s modernization. The Daean Friendship Glass Factory was on the tour; officials said China had built the factory at no cost to North Korea. Similarly, production lines in several other plants were overwhelmingly “made in China.”

The March 26 Cable Factory in Pyongyang used Chinese machines; its raw materials appeared to be from China as well. The Pyongyang Cosmetic Factory, which produces cosmetics, toiletries and toothpaste, was also equipped with Chinese machines. The toothpaste production line used equipment from Nanjing Machinery, and the soap production facility was equipped by companies in Quingtao.

At the International Trade Fair in Pyongyang, most booths were set up by Chinese firms. Among the 217 companies that participated in the fair, more than 80 percent were Chinese or joint ventures that included a Chinese partner.

North Korea’s trade is also overwhelmingly skewed toward China: in 2004, nearly half of the North’s trade was with its neighbor. “North Korean industries are 90 percent dependent on China,” said Kim Suk-jin, a North Korean economy researcher at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade.

That’s not entirely a bad thing, some economists here said; joining the world economy through China could become a catalyst for reform and opening of the North Korean economy. But they also said they were somewhat uneasy that China’s influence on the Korean Peninsula would become “unnecessarily” strong, reflecting deep-seated Korean unease about foreign influences on the peninsula. Referring to South Korea’s dependency on Japan in the 1960s and 70s for raw materials and facilities, they said that trade with Japan is still skewed in Japan’s favor.

Jeon Jong-mu, the president of HUM Construction Company, was in a party that traveled to North Korea for the international trade show with the journalists. He said North Korean officials had offered him the opportunity to participate in a project to mine aggregate ― rock, gravel and sand ―from the Chongchon River. In return for dredging the river, the offer reportedly went, the North would supply the material to his company.

According to the North Korean officials, the dredging is important to them because frequent flooding of the river damages nearby agricultural areas. “I thought the dredging work would be better for increasing rice production in the North than giving fertilizer,” Mr. Jeon said.

At the Chongsan Cooperative Farm, Ko Myong-hee, its manager, said no South Korean experts have ever visited there but that South Korea has provided it with rice and fertilizer. Lee Kyung-han, the manager of the Korean Standards Association, thought that was a symptom of a problem. He said experts from here should meet with their North Korean counterparts to improve productivity.

Others agreed that for the most part, the South has just been “giving fish” to the North. They said of the $1.6 billion in trade volume between the two Koreas, the South’s rice and fertilizer aid amounts to 35 percent. In the name of helping the poor, sick North Koreans, Seoul just ships rice, fertilizer and medicines.

Both Koreas should learn more about each other, said Kim Dong-ho of the Korea Development Institute. Some North Koreans believed that designating special economic zones would bring large foreign investments instantly, and complained that South Korean businessmen were not making investments in Kaesong Industrial Complex even after visiting the site. He said South Koreans also had a poor understanding of the North’s economy. He blasted the South Korean government and businesses here for making investments based on “rosy anticipations.”

Experts here said the government should focus more on building manufacturing facilities in the North. The March 26 Cable Factory in Pyongyang was modernized by a $2 million donation from North Koreans living overseas, said Kim Sok-nam, the plant’s manager. The Daean Glass Factory was also built with $24 million provided by China.

It would be asking too much, those experts said, to expect South Korean businesses to line up to make investments in the North after watching the woes of the Hyundai Group and the financial problems it faced after making its large investment in Mount Kumgang tourism.

If businessmen are reluctant to invest, perhaps the government should shift tactics. Rather than increase the amount of aid, which cost $365 million in rice and fertilizer alone in 2005, Seoul could offer investment assistance. That $365 million, after all, could have financed 15 Daean Glass Factory plants.

Mr. Lee of the Korean Standards Association proposed that government companies in the South might consider building factories in the North. Others agreed.

“The Kaesong Industrial Complex will take time to settle in,” said Kim Yeon-chul of the Asiatic Research Institute at Korea University. “On the other hand, Pyongyang, Nampo and other important economic venues in the North will be under China’s influence in as little as five years.”

Mr. Kim said South Korea should find ways to exercise its influence in core economic zones of the North. Instead of depending on the pioneer sprits of private firms, a state-run corporation in charge of industrial cooperation with the North should be formed to make profitable investments in the North’s industries, Mr. Kim suggested. “If such a firm existed, the South would have been able to carry out sustainable industrial projects in the North instead of providing light industry materials as aid,” he said. “There is a financial burden at the early stages, but that will eventually be reduced when the investment environment in the North improves, and the state-run corporation will be able to add resources from the international financial market on its own. That is why we need a state company for inter-Korean economic cooperation.”

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