North Korean Economy Watch

Daily NK
Kim Min Se
10/26/2007

There is a prospect of the rise of “second food crisis” next year because of the flood disaster and the resulting food shortage.

A senior researcher at Korea Rural Economic Institute, Kwon Tae Jin said warningly, “Unless North Korea comes up with a special plan to secure food supply, there will come another food crisis next year, which is as severe as the one in the mid and late 1990s.”

Kwon anticipated that North Korea would need 5.2 million tons of grain for domestic consumption. Unfortunately, it is expected that North Korea would produce around 3.8 million tons of grain. This means there will be a shortage of 1.4 million tons of grain.

The statistics indicates there is a real possibility of a food crisis. North Korean authorities announced that the flood inundated about 2.2 billion ㎡ of farmland, which accounts for 14 percent of the country’s farmland. It is estimated that 2.2 billion ㎡ of farmland produces at least 500,000 tons of grain.

However, another prospect says that although food shortage is inevitable, it will not lead to mass starvation in North Korea as it did in the mid-1990s. Most of defectors from North Korea said, “Since the mid-2000s, things have changed. There won’t be any serious starvation.” They said that the current situation is different from that of those days under the central food distribution system. They added that the Jangmadang (markets) economy has changed a way for life among North Korea people.

◆ The amount of demand for food is overestimated

It should be double-checked whether North Korea really needs a minimum of 5.2 million tons of grain. There is criticism that the estimate of food demand which was calculated by some South Korean experts on North Korea and relief organizations is unrealistic. It is also pointed out that the estimate is calculated based on the nutrition standard of South Korea.

Defectors said that mass starvation would not have occurred if North Korea had at least a half of 5.2 million tons of grain in the mid 1990s.

Although the international standard for daily nutritional intake is between 2,000 and 2,500 kcal/day, North Korea sets the standard at 1,600 kcal/day, which amounts to 450 grams of grain.

It is easy to estimate the minimum amount of food demand needed in North Korea. Let us say every individual including children and the elderly needs 550 grams of grain per day, which is equal to the daily amount of food distributed to every adult by the state. With the population of 22 million in North Korea, the country then needs 12,100 tons of grain each day and 4.4 million tons of grain per year.

It is known that the North Korean government provides 550 grams of grain for adults and 300 grams for both children and the elderly. According to CIA’s World Fact Book 2004, the population aged between 15 and 64 in North Korea is around 15 million, which accounts for 67.8 percent of total population. This means the population of children and the elderly together reaches about 7 million. If we do the math, we come into conclusion that the amount of food needed in North Korea every year is 3,777,750 tons of grain.

Recall that North Korean people had received the aforementioned amount of food through the state food distribution until early 1990s. Of course, the country did not suffer from mass starvation back then.

The mass starvation during the mid-1990s resulted from huge decrease in food production between 1994 and 1998. In those years, North Korea produced about 2 million tons of grain, which fell far below the needed levels of food production. Hwang Jang Yop, former secretary of the Worker’s Party also testified that in the fall of 2006, while he was still in North Korea, he once heard the secretary of agriculture Seo Kwan Hee worrying about extremely low food production.

Therefore, it is correct to estimate the minimum amount of food needed in North Korea at 3,777,750 tons of grain. If the food production decreases below 3 million tons, then the food prices will skyrocket, and the possibility of mass starvation will be increased.

◆ A New way of life among North Korean people helps prevent them from falling victim to starvation.

North Koran people do not believe in the state authorities any more. The people know that they suffered from horrible starvation because they relied on the state and its food distribution system. During the crisis, many people had desperately waited for food to be distributed until they collapsed and died. Nowadays, North Korean people find a means of living by themselves at Jangmadang.

“There is no free ride” is the words on everybody’s lips in North Korea, which means that everyone must work hard in order to make a living. The lowest class became a day laborer.

The mass starvation of the mid-1990s has brought a significant change into North Korean society. Except a few, most of North Korean people do not rely on the state’s food distribution system. Instead, they have come up with a variety of survival techniques such as engaging in business, illegal trade with China or real estate transactions, receiving support from defected family members, and house sitting.

In that manner, North Korean people make money and use it to buy rice. An affiliate at the Bank of Korea who studies price trends of North Korea said, “Since the adoption of the July 1 Economic Improvement Measure, the price of rice and corn has increased the least.” If the prices go up, people would tighten their belts and decrease their spending on every item except rice. This means they are not that vulnerable to starvation as they used to.

◆ Businessmen are good at securing food.

Recently, a number of rich businessmen have emerged. Some have tens of thousands dollars, and others as many as several million dollars. Groups of Jangmadang businessmen have been organized with these rich businessmen as the leaders.

These businessmen come and go to China as they please and supply food and goods to Jangmadang in North Korea. If the rice price in North Korea is expensive than in China, they buy Chinese rice and sell it at Janmadang. In this way, they help balance supply and demand at the market.

Furthermore, Chinese residents in North Korea and Chinese businessmen also joined the North Korean businessmen as providers at the market. They too sell food produced in China at Jangmadang when food prices go up in North Korea. If possible, they even sell rice reserved for the People’s Army. There was an accusation that the state authorities supplied food aid from overseas for the People’s Army while collecting food produced in North Korea at the same time.

Of course, some businessmen could deliberately keep a hold on food supply anticipating an increase in food prices. However, that kind of unfair activity is temporary. Although it is too early to tell, the “invisible hand” of the market, however small it is, is operating in North Korea and acting as a preventive measure against starvation.

Joong Ang Daily
10/23/2007

Regulatory filing requirements to invest in North Korea will be eased, and the Export-Import Bank of Korea will manage information on investment activities in the North, according to a Ministry of Finance and Economy release yesterday.

For an amount below $300,000, an investor will no longer need to hand in an annual financial report to the bank handling the company’s foreign exchange deals for investments in the North.

For an amount below $1 million, an investor will only need to report briefly.

The bank dealing with foreign exchange transactions will need to report the investor’s financial information to the Export-Import Bank of Korea instead of the Ministry of Unification and the Finance Ministry.

Yonhap
Lee Joon-seung
10/23/2007

A newly opened factory-apartment at the Kaesong Industrial Complex promises fresh possibilities for inter-Korean business cooperation, the developer of the facility said Tuesday.

The state-run Korea Industrial Complex Corp. (KICOX) said the dual-purpose manufacturing and residential facility is specifically designed for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that are currently being phased out of South Korea due to the lack of workers and high labor costs.

At the formal opening ceremony of the factory-apartment, KICOX President Kim Chil-doo said, “The new facility provides an ideal business model for South Korea’s labor-intensive SMEs trying to stay afloat, and is an ideal means to start off business in North Korea.” About 300 people from South Korea were present at Tuesday’s opening in Kaesong, including lawmakers and Vice Industry Minister Oh Young-ho.

The 32 companies that will use the new facility are generally small clothing companies that were at the critical juncture of deciding whether to move to China and Southeast Asian countries, or close their businesses altogether. The factory-apartment provides an alternative means to continue making goods and is beneficial to all sides, the developer said.

By moving to Kaesong, the companies can stay in business by hiring workers for about US$60 a month, while 2,700 North Korean workers benefit from new jobs. In addition, the dual arrangement permits cheaper operating costs, a better working environment and allows companies to cooperate with each other for logistics support, said the developer.

The corporation, which runs 11 similar factory-apartments in South Korea, said the five-story building covers 27,880 square meters and was built in 14 months at the expense of 21.1 billion won (US$22.8 million). It is equipped with a storage area, a training center, a product display room, two dining halls, a store and fitness center. The new building is equipped with 71 dormitories for South Korean workers and various support staff.

The monthly rent in the factory-apartments is 4,500 won (US$4.9) per square meter, and there are six different floor arrangements available, ranging from 396 to 1983 square meters.

KICOX said that based on the projected success of the first factory-apartment, up to seven more will be built in Kaesong by 2010. It said 19,489 square meters of land were reserved in May 2007 for the project.

A second factory-apartment is being built the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee (KIDMAC), and is scheduled for completion by late 2008.

Companies that have moved into the new factory-apartment, meanwhile, said they are satisfied with the proficiency of workers and cheap labor costs.

Ok Sung-seok, president of Nine Mode Co. and chairman of the corporate management committee at the KICOX factory, said Kaesong plants cost a third less to operate than similar plants in China. He added that his shirt-making company should turn a profit by next year.

“I ran a factory in Qingtao, China for four years, but the operating cost there is skyrocketing,” the businessman said. He said Nine Mode closed its Chinese factory and plans to downsize its operations in Seoul so it can concentrate on its efforts in Kaesong.

Ok said that depending on the type of business and size, four or five factories in the factory-apartments should turn a profit by the end of the year.

The Kaesong complex lies 60 kilometers northeast of Seoul, and is hailed as the crowning achievement of the historic 2000 inter-Korean summit. It has played a key role in expanding two-way economic exchange that stood at just $300 million in 1999 to $1.35 billion last year.

Construction of the industrial district began in June 2003, with 3.3 square kilometers of factory land have been built to house up to 450 firms. By 2012, 11.6 square kilometers of industrial park is to be laid down that can hold several thousand South Korean factories and hire over 200,000 North Korean workers.

There are at present about 13,000 North Korean workers employed by 57 South Korean firms in Kaesong that have churned out garments, watches, kitchen utensils, auto parts and other labor-intensive goods since 2004.

The complex just north of the demilitarized zone that separates the two Koreas has been in the spotlight after the second inter-Korean summit. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il agreed to build a region of peace and prosperity centered around Kaesong and the North Korean city of Haeju, 75 kilometers west of Kaesong.

“People at Kaesong expect progress to be made in such areas as communications and travel, which had previously been an obstacle to the development of the industrial district,” said a KIDMAC official. The prime ministers of the two sides are to meet in November to implement follow-up measures to the summit.

There is only one telephone line linking Kaesong with Seoul, while no mobile phones are allowed in the area. People and materials are also prevented from moving in and out of the complex.

Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
10/22/2007
(Click on image for original size)

According to DailyNK’s research on prices in North Korea conducted in late September, the prices in Pyongyang are similar to the prices in other parts of the country. The finding shows that Jangmadang (markets) economy has been going through integration and similar distribution process across North Korea.

In the past, domestic commodities were sold cheap, and foreign products were sold expensive in Pyongyang.

DailyNK has been conducting quarterly research on prices in the central such as Pyongan Province and Hamkyung Province and northern areas.

This time the research result shows that the price of rice in a Jangmadang in Pyongyang is 1,350 won/kg, which is similar to the price of rice in Sinuiju, 1,400won/kg. In North Korea, the rice price serves as a gauge for price trends.

In Pyongyang, the exchange rate is about 330 thousands won to 100 dollars, which is the same as the exchange rate in other places. The most famous imported cigarettes, Cat (Craven A) is sold at the same cost of 1,500 won in Pyongyang and other areas.

Subsidiary food is more expensive in Pyongyang. The price of cabbage is 400 won/kg, 50 won/kg higher than cabbage price in Sinuiju. The price of pork ranges from 3,500 to 4,000/kg, 500~1,000 won/kg higher than the pork price in other areas.

The prices of seafood such as brown and green seaweed, and dried Pollack are cheaper in Pyongyang. Seafood caught in Kangwon Province and neighboring areas is transported to markets in Pyongyang in refrigerator car. Since the demand is high, seafood is sold in great quantities, and the price remains low in general.

Movie ticket prices range from 200 to 400 won. Telephone service is charged five won per minute. Overall, the price range for each commodity is high, and many different kinds of goods are available in Jangmadang.

Imported items from China such as socks, sports shoes, or underwear are expensive being sold at a cost of 1,000 won in Pyongyang. That is because there are extra shipping rates and labor costs imposed on Chinese goods transported to Pyongyang. On the contrary, in Sinuiju, imported goods from China are circulated on the market right away.

Often, retail prices are higher in Pyongyang because of high levels of consumption among Pyongyang citizens. However, cigarettes or liquor produced in Pyongyang, or clothes from South Korea circulated to other areas via Pyongyang are sold cheap in Pyongyang.

However, in these days the differences in regional price levels have almost disappeared.

A defector from Pyongyang, Ahn Chul Min (a pseudonym) who came to South Korea in 2006 said, “Prior to 2002, there were individuals who hung around from place to place and made money on price differences. But nowadays, the retail prices are almost uniform across the country because people just use a telephone and find out where to get items they want at what prices.

“Since there is no big difference in retail prices, retailers are not doing well in business,” Ahn added, “Instead, individuals driving a truck and selling goods wholesale are making good money.”

Ahn said, “Not everyone who lives in Pyongyang is well-to-do. Despite of their locations whether in Pyongyang or Chongjin, all markets have goods from South Korea and China. The poor people even if they live in Pyongyang should buy cheap and low quality of products from China. In contrast, those who live in Chongjin and have money can buy goods from South Korea anytime.”

Market Prices Consistent Throughout DPRK
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 07-10-25-1
10/25/2007

The results of a survey conducted by Daily NK on the price of goods in Pyongyang at the end of September show that prices in the capital were similar to those in rural areas. This is an indication that markets throughout the country are integrated, and evidence that goods can be circulated from region to region.

In the past, the price of domestic goods in Pyongyang was relatively cheep, while imported goods were sold at high prices. During that time, Daily NK carried out local price surveys in central regions such as Pyongan and Hamkyung provinces, as well as in northern areas. According to this latest survey in Pyongyang, the cost of one Kg of rice, the standard measure of the cost of goods in North Korea, was 1,350 won, similar to the 1,400 won price in Sinuiju, and the 1,250 won cost in Hyeryung. An exchange rate of 3,300 won per USD is also in line with rural exchange rates, as is the 1,500 won price tag on a pack of Craven A cigarettes, the most favored imported cigarette in North Korea.

Non-essential food goods are more expensive in Pyongyang than in outlying areas, with one Kg of lettuce selling for 400 won, 50 won more than in Sinuiju. Also, pork in the capital runs between 3,500 and 4,000 won per Kg, which is 500 to 1,000 won more than it would cost elsewhere in the country.

On the other hand, seaweed, dried Pollack, and other marine products are cheaper in Pyongyang than elsewhere. Ocean harvests from Kangwon and neighboring provinces are brought to Pyongyang markets by way of refrigerated trucks. Because of high demand, a variety of goods get delivered, yet overall, prices are held fairly low.

Overall, the price range on a particular ware was very wide, indicating that there was a variety of products available in the markets. The survey found that goods such as undergarments, socks, sneakers imported from China were selling for the high cost of 1,000 won each. In Sinuiju and other northern areas, goods from China are brought directly to markets, but by the time these same goods reach Pyongyang, additional labor and transportation costs force prices up. Pyongyang residents typically have more money to spend than those in rural areas, also leading vendors to raise prices on some goods, however cigarettes and alcohol produced in Pyongyang and distributed to rural areas, as well as South Korean goods which reach DPRK markets by way of Pyongyang, are slightly less expensive in the capital.

Recently, regional price differences have nearly disappeared. Prior to 2002, some traders earned their living traveling from region to region exploiting price differences. However, now with one simple phone call, North Koreans can find out where and for what price goods are being sold, leading the majority of retail prices to be similar throughout the country.

The DPRK Chamber of Commerce was inaugurated on August 25, 2004 with the purpose of developing economic and trade relations with different countries over the world.

The Pyongyang Chamber of Commerce (PCC), the predecessor of the DPRK Chamber of Commerce, had been established on March 1, 2000 and granted an associate membership of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) at its 33rd World Congress held in Budapest, Hungary in May, 2000.

The PCC had conducted such service activities as trade, finance, arbitration and consultation helpful to the domestic and foreign trade and economic organizations in close relations with the ICC, national chambers of commerce and world trade and economic centres.

It was registered in the directory of addresses published by the ICC, the International Trade Centre and other international economic organizations.

With a view to expanding exchange and cooperation with foreign countries in all fields of the economy, the PCC was developed into the Chamber of Commerce of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

At present, it is extensively carrying on its commercial business in closer ties with the ICC and national chambers of commerce around the world.

The DPRK Chamber of Commerce makes efforts to promote bilateral and multinational exchange and investment with Korean joint venture and individual enterprises in foreign countries as its full members and with foreign individual enterprises and entrepreneurs residing in Korea, overseas compatriots and foreign enterprises who hope to have business transactions with Korean partners as its associate members.

It has an organizational structure consisting of secretariat, trade information committee, trade arbitration committee and exhibition committee as well as non-permanent credentials committee for full members or associate members.

The trade information committee engages in such business as collection and distribution of information data on world economy and trade, international commodity and financial markets.

The trade arbitration committee handles correct examination and settlement of disputes relating to economy and trade.

The exhibition committee organizes the opening of national trade fairs at home and abroad and provides every convenience for the participation of its members in the fairs.

The DPRK Chamber of Commerce will make a positive contribution to the promotion of foreign trade, invitation of investment and economic exchange with other countries.

——

The DPRK Chamber is headed by Ri Hak Gwon.  I have been unnable to determine any other posts he might have held in the past.

——

The Chamber has two addresses on line:

DPRK Chamber of Commerce
c/o Ministry of Foreign Trade
Central District
Pyongyang
D.P.R. of Korea
E-Mail: micom@co.chesin.com
(This address seems to indicate it is an office within the Ministry of Foreign Trade)

DPRK Chamber of Commerce
Jungsong-dong, Central District,
Pyongyang, DPR Korea
P.O.Box 89
Tel: 850-2-3815926
Fax: 850-2-3815827
E-mail: micom@co.chesin.com

——–

Externally, the DPRK Chamber liases with numerous external business organizations to promote DPRK exports and foreign direct investment (FDI):

European Business Association

The EBA cooperates with the DPRK Chamber of Commerce and supports it as well as the Korea International Exhibition Corporation under the Ministry of Foreign Trade to help European companies participate [in the Pyongyang International Trade Fair].  European companies participating at the European booth [in the most recent fair] said they were very satisfied. European businesses that would like to participate at the European booth during the next trade fairs (11th PYONGYANG SPRING INTERNATIONAL TRADE FAIR, May 12 – 15, 2008 and the and the 4th PYONGYANG AUTUMN INTERNATIONAL TRADE FAIR, September 22 – 25, 2008) are welcome to contact EBA from now on. Details on these fairs will also be given shortly on the EBA-website under “Services”

Friedrich Nauman Foundation

“It is a great honour and a token of both appreciation and trust” , said Mr. Kim Myeong-ho, Deputy Director of the Department of International Relations of the Korean Workers’ Party welcoming two representatives of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation at the Headquarters of the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) in Pyongyang. Since their meeting at the beginning of February this year the international political situation has changed dramatically: the February 13 Agreement on the Denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula was signed between the six parties DPR Korea, USA, China, Republic of Korea, Japan and Russia. Meanwhile, the parties have taken necessary steps to ease the tensions on the Korean Peninsula and to move towards denuclearization. Both the U.S. and the DPR Korea have started negotiations on the normalisation of bilateral relations within the framework of the Six-Party Talks. Finally, both Koreas agreed to hold a second summit on 2-4 October.

Mr. Kim Myeong-ho expressed his appreciation of the training activities of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in the DPR Korea. Referring to the New Year’s editorial of the Rodong Shinmun, the KWP’s newspaper, he mentioned the priority of modernizing the economy in the sectors of agriculture, light industry, IT and banking. According to him, of particular interest are methods of farm management, renewable energy and food security but also city management.

The representatives of the KWP accepted FNF’s offer of having a study tour to Germany for party officials in 2008 presuming further progress in the Six-Party Talks. The members of the delegation would have “fresh ideas” after being back in the DPR Korea, FNF was told.

Walter Klitz, Resident Representative of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Korea, also had meetings with representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the DPRK’s Chamber of Commerce. In cooperation with the European Union, FNF will hold the 3rd EU-DPRK Economic Workshop in October, its fourth seminar this year.

Here is the agenda for a training seminr held last April. Here is their summary of the event.

New Clients:

South-North Korean Economic Cooperation Forum

A major South Korean business organization said Thursday (Sept. 27) it plans to form a civilian body for economic cooperation with North Korea on the occasion of the 2007 South-North Korean Summit next week.

The envisioned body, tentatively named the South-North Korean Economic Cooperation Forum, is to be set up in October and have 50 members, including 35 entrepreneurs, the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) said.

It would be the first non-governmental channel for inter-Korean economic cooperation. Currently, the South’s Ministry of Unification and the North’s National Economic Cooperation Federation are the sole channels for inter-Korean economic cooperation.

“The establishment of the body is designed to further promote inter-Korean economic cooperation on a civilian level,” said Kim Sang-yeol, vice chairman of the KCCI.

The planned group will conduct economic cooperation projects with the North and help improve North Korea’s investment environment, the KCCI said.

To that end, the chamber will try to sign a deal with its counterpart, the DPRK Chamber of Commerce, and send an investment inspection team to the North after the end of the summit. DPRK is the acronym for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Established in March 2000, the chamber of commerce, which includes members of 100 major companies, has carried out external economic exchanges and attracted foreign investment in the North, according to the KCCI.     

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun is scheduled to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il from Oct. 2-4 in Pyongyang. Seoul has hinted that the promotion of economic cooperation will be high on the agenda of the 2007 South-North Korean summit, as it was in the first summit in 2000.

Alejandro Cao de Benos

In his own words: “[The KFA is] looking into development of new areas to expand into, especially those related to economy that are critical also for the development and life improvement of the DPRK. Since KFA has played an important role in building friendship, now we also can play our part in building business.

For accomplishing this goal, I announce the creation of the IKBC (International Korea Business Center).  As a sister organization of the KFA, the IKBC will strictly take care of business issues, facilitate business information to private investors and companies around the world.

In close collaboration with the DPRK Chamber of Commerce, IKBC will become the reference link between the DPRK and foreign businessmen. The spirit is to build a DPRK Chamber of Commerce outside the DPRK that will approach the countless possibilities in trading that will benefit all sides involved.

Alejandro’s involvement raises questions about the relationship between the DPRK’s cultural diplomatic efforts (since he is a client of the Committe for Cultural Relations with Foreign countries) and its business outreach efforts auspiciously under the Ministry of Foreign Trade.  I suspect that various DPRK agencies have been blurring the boundries between the two activities for fiscal reasons.  As access to hard currency comes to play a greater role in the DPRK system, I predict that we will see more of this kind of mission creep on the DPRK side.

They also undertake external activities:

A delegation of the DPRK Chamber of Commerce (KCC) took part in the 5th China International Equipment Manufacturing Exposition on Aug. 29, 2006 and the 2nd China Jilin Northeast Asia Investment & Trade Exposition on Sep. 2, 2006.

During its participation in the expositions, the delegation held an interview on investment and discussed matters of investment in the development of a vanadium mine, stone dressing, the production of agrochemicals and calcium carbonate, seafood breeding and processing and so on.

The KCC secretary-general made an introductory speech entitled “On the trade and investment policy of the DPR Korea”.

At the interview, a series of technical matters on joint ventures and processing trade as well as investment guaranty were discussed and agreed between traders.

A trade and investment seminar for European businessmen was held in Pyongyang under the sponsorship of the KCC on October 30, 2006.

There was the general explanation on the DPRK trade and investment policy and the investment environment.

Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
10/19/2007

A study reveals that market prices have skyrocketed in North Korea since the massive flood disaster in August.

According to the study conducted by DailyNK in late September this year, the rice price in the northern part of North Korea increased by 500 North Korean won on average between early July and September. In the market in Sinuiju of North Pyongan Province, the rice price rose from 980 Won/kg to 1,400 Won/kg.

The price of imported rice from China also went up to 1,250 won/kg. The rice from South Korea was sold at 1,450/kg. In Gwaksan of North Pyongan Province, the domestic rice was sold at 1,370/kg, the rice from China at 1,500/kg, the rice from South Korea at 1,300/kg.

In Hoiryeong of North Hamkyung Province, the price of domestic rice was 900 won/kg in July but rose to 1,250 won/kg. In Kilju of North Hamkyung Province, the domestic rice was sold at 1,200 won/kg. This shows that the rice price in North Hamkyung Province did not increase as highly as the price in Sinuiju of North Pyungan Province. In Hoiryeong, the price of rice has been rising steadily from 820 won/kg in March.

The rice in Hoiryeong is cheaper than in Sinuiju because demand for corn is relatively high and food distribution is partly being operated in Hoiryeong.

Between July and late September, the price of wheat also rose from 900 won to 1,200 won, and the price of noodles from 1,000 won to 1,600 won. However, the price of whole corn, the staple food for the low-income families remained stable for the same period.

It was believed that the surge in food prices resulted from the massive flood damage which stroke North Korea in early and middle August. When vast areas of land in South Pyongan and Hwanghae Province, the major granary of North Korea, were submerged during the flood, it was expected that domestic crop production would decrease.

After the food crisis in 1990s, the demand for rice increases in every fall during which rice price is low and people tend to purchase in advance one-year supply for food. In this fall, however, the price of rice greatly rose because the shortage of food was anticipated.

Meanwhile, the surge in rice price illustrates that overseas food aid was not distributed to the people of North Korean. The illicit sale of rice originally distributed to the party cadres or People’s Army has not been fully activated in the market. In addition, the rise in rice price was triggered by the fact that the number of wholesalers stocking up rice in advance increased with the news that there would be a shortage of food.

In early August, the price of rice once surged to a high of 1,950 won/kg in the market in Sinuiju. Thereupon, there was a rumor going around that the rise in rice price resulted from the state’s ban on rice sale and had nothing to do with the flood. Anyhow, the rice price has been on the decrease since then, and in September it had remained at around 1,500 won/kg.

As opposed to the rise in rice price, the price of corn, the main diet for the low-income families remained stable. This means the possibility of massive starvation in North Korea is low this year. Moreover, that the corn price remained moderate when rice price went up by 500 won reflects that the economic situation of middle class has been stabilized over the years.

Along with the rise in food prices, the prices of industrial products or others have been soaring sharply. The price of pork increased from 2,300 won/kg to 3,000 won/kg, and the price of frozen Pollack from 3,500/fish to 4,800/fish

The prices of brown seaweed or fruit juice went up to around 2,000 won each. The price of the popular imported cigarettes, Cat, rose by 200 won being sold at a cost of 1,500 won.

As winter is coming soon, the heating fuel price increased. Brown coal was sold at a cost of 1,300 won for 20 kg, gasoline at a cost of 3,000 won/liter

The exchange rate also increased from one dollar to 3,100 won to one dollar to 3,300 won.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 07-10-18-1
10/18/2007

One year after the DPRK nuclear test, North Korea is still focusing all of their policy efforts on restoring their economy. North Korean leaders are convinced that an economic revival is crucial for the survival and stability of their regime.

The DPRK stated in this year’s New Year Joint Editorial, a publication that presents the regime’s policy direction for the year, that “the founding of a strong national economy is a crucial requirement for the revolution and advancement of our society, and is a historic undertaking toward becoming a fully prosperous and powerful nation.” The emphasis on “focusing all the state’s efforts on solving the economic issue,” was indicative of their sense of imminence regarding economic revival.

The Joint Editorial presenting the DPRK’s national goal of “founding a strong national economy” came out three months after the October nuclear test, which took place just over one year ago. Since its publication, the North Korean media has been stressing that the DPRK already realized powerful military strength and strong political ideology, and must now strive to establish a strong national economy. The military might of the nation was epitomized by the success of the nuclear test.

A copy of the North Korean quarterly publication “Politics & Law Review” obtained on September 14th emphasized the need to establish a strong national economy, stating that “without a strong national economy, it is impossible to strengthen the forces of political ideology and military power,” and, “the only way to block the infiltration of economic imperialism is by strengthening economic power.” It also added that “if we are weaker than South Korea, we will naturally look to them and depend on them.”

North Korean press claims that Kim Jong Il’s decision to carry out a nuclear test was the reason the 6-party talks have been working since January’s meeting between the United States and the DPRK in Berlin, thus easing tensions on the Korean peninsula by ameliorating the U.S.-DPRK relationship and advancing inter-Korean relations. The fact that 18 out of 55 public appearances (a significantly higher proportion than that of last year) made by Kim Jong Il this year were visits to economic bureaus also reflects North Korea’s economic ‘all-in.’ North Korea’s pro-active movement toward ameliorating relations with the United States, and its determination to expand inter-Korean economic cooperation, all stem from its urgency to develop their economy in order to stabilize their regime.

Daily NK
Han Young Jin
10/17/2007

Due to the flood damage which heavily affected the central region of North Korea last August, the next year’s price of rice has been putting an increasing burden among civilians.

Min Nam Su (pseudonym), a North Korean trader who has come to Dandong, China, said on the 15th, “In Hwanghae and South Pyongan Province this year, farming has been affected for the flood damage, so the price of rice has been showing signs of an increase. Currently in the Jangmadang (markets) in Shinuiju, 15kg of rice costs 25,000 North Korean won (KRW8,000, USD8.7).

“The farmlands in Hwanghae and South Pyongan have been completely submerged, so we were only able to look to farming in North Pyongan Province. It is obvious that they will be taken up for provisions for the People’s Army, so people who have money are already busy buying and hoarding rice.”

A majority of urban civilians are directly purchasing rice from the jangmadang, with the exception of Hwanghae and Pyongyang, after the breakdown of the provision system in North Korea. If the price of rice skyrockets, the livelihood of North Korean citizens will be directly affected.

It is possible that the rice aid from South Korea or international society, which will be distributed from the end of this month, may stabilize the price of rice.

Good Friends, beginning early this month, relayed through its newsletter, “Only when the rice aid comes in quickly will the overall price of rice decrease, no matter whose hands it falls into. It is difficult to buy a kg of rice for 1,700~1,900 won.”

Rice aid to North Korea flows in through Pyongyang, Nampo, or through Chongjin Harbor. The rice, after it goes to the People’s Army or large-city political employees, travels down a path of smuggling into the jangmadang. NGOs for North Korea estimate that the actual amount of rice allocated to civilians is around 30% of all the aided rice.

The North Korean authorities recently gave an instruction to factories and offices to guarantee six-months worth of food provisions to laborers, but the factories are reportedly in a difficult situation due to the rice shortage.

Mr. Min said, “From now on, 15kg of rice is supposed to hike up to 50,000 North Korean won (approx. USD17.4). In places like Yongcheon plain and Jungju plain, some farming has been well done, so the armies are mobilized and will do harvest. This year in particular, there will probably be a lot of thieves in farmlands.”

He said further, “The price of rice is supposed to have risen even more in Kaecheon, Suncheon, and Pyongsung in South Pyongan Province than in Shinuiju. There have been news that people are even coming from the Hwanghae region, which is a famous farming province, to North Pyongan to buy rice.”

Mr. Min said, “In early August, when the initial flood damage occurred, a kilogram of rice rose to 1,960 (approx. USD0.7) in the Shinuiju and in the second week of August, remained stable at 1,500 won (approx. USD0.52). It seems like the price of rice will continue to rise. But, the situation would change when the support is distributed to the civilians, but who expects that?”

Institute for Far Easter Studies
NK Brief No. 07-10-16-1

The Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee reported on October 10 that after two years and nine months of operation, the total value of goods manufactured in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) surpassed 200,000,000 USD. In 2005, production by companies in the KIC totaled 15,000,000 USD; in 2006, 74,000,000 USD; and in the first 9 months of 2007, 124,000,000 USD, for a total since 2005 until last September of 213,000,000 USD.

There are currently a total of 45 companies operating in the complex, employing 19,433 North Korean workers and 800 workers from South Korea, for a total of over twenty thousand employees. The Committee’s report further detailed that the production output of the North Korean workers averaged 1,275 USD per person during the first half of 2007, up 28 percent over last year’s per-capita output of 989 USD.

After overall production surpassed 100,000,000 USD at the end of last January, the 200,000,000 USD barrier was broken in only eight months. This expansion of production is a result of a stable business environment, the increase in the number of companies entering the complex and the number of North Korean workers employed, and overall productivity growth.

The 1,275 USD per-capita production output for the first half of the year shows a 28 percent increase over the 989 USD per-capita recorded in 2006, and 15 percent higher than the 1,108 USD per-capita average of the first two quarters of last year. Despite employment regulations calling for continually increasing numbers of workers, which tend to lower productivity statistics, overall North Korean workers’ average per-capita production numbers did not fall, and the increase shown is significant.

The increase in productivity is not unrelated to the level of education of the workers. Currently, the majority of workers in the KIC have at least a high-school education, and more than 20 percent have completed some form of technical college or higher. A technical training center scheduled for completion in October of this year will provide even more formal technical training for the workers, further increasing productivity.

Yonhap
Tony Chang
10/16/2007

More than 400 government and business officials from South and North Korea gathered Tuesday at an industrial complex in the North to celebrate the completion of the first-phase of development of the landmark reconciliation zone, organizers said.

The industrial park in Kaesong, a border town 60 kilometers northeast of Seoul, has been hailed as a major outcome of the historic 2000 inter-Korean summit and is being built in three stages with completion scheduled for 2012. Over 13,000 North Korean workers now employed in Kaesong earn some US$60.4 each a month working for South Korean firms producing garments, watches, utensils and other labor-intensive goods.

“The Kaesong complex is an achievement that shows that our people can do anything when they pull together,” Kim Jae-hyun, head of the Korea Land Corp. (KLC), said in a congratulatory speech during a ceremony held at the complex, according to the company.

KLC, South Korea’s state-run real-estate company, is responsible for selecting the companies that operate there.

Other dignitaries from Seoul included Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung and Hyun Jeong-eun, chairwoman of the Hyundai Group that is involved in various projects in the North. Some 100 North Koreans, of whom none were identified, were present at the ceremony, according to the KLC.

“The significance of the industrial park was highlighted once more during the recent inter-Korean summit, paving the way to further expand development (of the zone),” Lee said in his speech.

The first-phase construction of the park, which began in June 2003, covers 3.3 million square-meters. As of April, some 220 companies have signed up to move into the complex. Currently 57 firms operate in the zone.

Approximately 8.26 million square meters of land have been allotted for the second-stage of development. Construction of the second stage is expected to begin early next year. It is expected to be used for material-oriented and technology industries, such as synthetic fibers and electronics parts, according to the KLC.

In the second inter-Korean summit held early this month, South and North Korea agreed to make Haeju, a militarily sensitive town for North Korea roughly 75 kilometers west of Kaesong, a special economic zone, similar to the Kaesong complex.