Archive for the ‘Economic reform’ Category

Daily NK reports rice prices falling

Monday, June 23rd, 2008

According to the Daily NK, the price of rice in North Korea is falling faster than the purchasing power of the Won.  My congratulations to the few individuals who no doubt figured out how to short North Korean rice (borrow it, sell it, then buy some more at the new lower price to pay back the loan). For the poor North Koreans who bought into the bubble at its peak, as many North Koreans of modest means might have, they now know what it feels like to own real estate in the US. Unfortunately, there is no insurance, options, or other hedges available for North Korean entrepreneurs to diversify their holdings, so asset bubbles probably hurt much more than in developed economies.

From the Daily NK:

An inside source from North Hamkyung Province said in a phone conversation with Daily NK on June 19, “Some people started hoarding huge volume of rice after hearing the rumor that the price of rice would go up as high as 5,000 won/kg. However, these people are now suffering heavy losses as the price has plunged dramatically lately. ”

The source said that around mid-late March this year, the price of rice started rising and a rumor began to circulate in the market that the price of rice would rise as high as four to five thousand won per kilogram. It was about that time when people with big fortunes started stockpiling rice, which further contributed to the increase of rice price, the source said.
 
“Around the end of May, rice price started falling dramatically because another rumor began to circulate that rice aid from foreign countries would arrive at Nampo Port and merchants, upon hearing the rumor, rushed to bring out their rice for sale,” the source said. “Right now, those who borrowed money from family and relatives to hoard rice are going crazy over the situation,” the source added.

As of June 17, the price of rice in major border cities of North Korea ranges between 2,100 won/kg and 2,500 won/kg. In fact, the price of rice dropped almost by half in the last one month.

This is not to suggest that food is now plentiful in North Korea and we are seeing a necessary downward adjustment in prices, but rather a demonstration of the volatility of North Korea’s markets.  Prices disproportionately rise and fall on rumors because there is no way to easily verify information.  North Korea has neither a mercantile exchange, futures contracts, nor an effective communications or transportation system.  Simply dealing with these initial problems would go a long way towards stabilizing and rationalizing food prices. 

UPDATE: On June 9, a Good Freinds report was published in Yonhap which indicated China increased its quota on food exports to the DPRK.

To read the full article, click below:
Rice Price Falls by Half, Bringing Misfortune to Traders Hoarding Rice
Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
6/23/2008

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North Korea’s continuing social change

Friday, June 20th, 2008

The Daily NK posted a fascinating interview with a local North Korean merchant.  He provides interesting anecdotes of everyday life:

Tongil Market (Featured in A State of Mind):

Nowadays, the way to survive is selling in the jangmadang (market). With the exception of the residents of the Joong-district and its vicinity, who are often mobilized to national events, seven out of 10 households do business in the jangmadang. In the Pyongyang Tongil (unification) Market alone, the number of people doing business is between 5,000~6,000 people. The size of a street-stand is approximately 50cm by 50cm large. There are also about 2,000 people selling outside of the market.”

“There are people also selling in the alleyways. The Tongil Market usually consists of people from the Tongil Street, so merchants from the other regions cannot do business there. In the Tongil Market alone, there are around 8,000 people [doing business]. Because the Market is so large, the cadres from the other regions frequently come to buy goods.”

Even in North Korea, capital enhances worker productivity: 

Mr. A said that in the markets, the sale of industrial goods (all kinds of products such as clothing brought from China) and cosmetics are supposed to be lucrative. The traders usually bring in about 5,000 won per day and 15,000 won per month. Such an amount of money can buy about 2kg of rice per day. The people who make a lot of money are the marine product merchants. They make around 7,000~8,000 won per day. Marine products are often purchased by officials who have money and rice.

The people in the lowest class do not have the capital to do business, so a majority of them sell noodles or food. They make about 1,500 won per day, which can purchase about a kilogram of corn. People who sell food sell rice, sidedishes, and snacks on site. To them, selling is a battle to survive.

Coping mechanisms:

Mr. A relayed that not-so-affluent households raise several domestic cattle, collect medicinal herbs or brew liquor to sell. The remnants of the liquor are used as livestock feed. Selling two bottles of liquor made of corn as raw material generates about 500 won in profit. However, the authorities have strictly been regulating brewing liquor in homes, resulting in difficult situations. If exposed for making liquor, both the person-in-charge and the People’s Party Unit chairman are banished to the countryside.

Beekeeping is seasonally supposed to be lucrative. In May when the acacia flowers start to bloom, the number of people who collect honey in the mountains increases. In the surrounding areas of Pyongyang, there are at least trees on the mountains, so beekeeping has been feasible. One person can collect about 100kg of honey per month by keeping around 15 beehives. The honey is usually consumed by people who want to use it in medicine or by officials.

Work overseas:

“The utmost goal of workers in Pyongyang is to go to another country to earn money. Recently, they have even gone to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Once they leave, they do not return for three years. They can go back or stay in Pyongyang. Workers who have gone to Russia or to Congo for farming come back with 10,000~20,000 dollars in three years.”

“With that money, they can buy a house and prepare a significant amount of capital for business. Those who have gone abroad not only do the work ordered by organizations, but also engage in private farming, do business and save as much money as they can. There have been a quite a few people around me who have gone abroad recently to make money this way. Out of 100 male workers, there is at least one or two. In order to go overseas, one has to pay 300~400 dollars in bribes.”

Read the full article here:
Doing Business Is a Battle
Daily NK 
Jung Kwon Ho
6/18/2008

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DPRK food prices falling?

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

The Daily NK reports food prices are falling in North Korea on news that international aid is due to arrive—proving that although the politics might not make much sense, the economic actors are rational: 

The price of rice in Pyongyang ha[d] risen to 3,000 won per 1kg, but since late May, the high-quality polished rice has been around 2,500 won, the medium quality rice around 2,400 won and unpolished brown rice around 2,300 won. Wild rice imported from Northeast Asia has been around 2,300 won. [Which was the price in April].

The price of corn is still around 1,500 won. Rice is not lacking in the jangmadang [markets], but corn has been. The reason for that is that last year, there was a rumor that planting soy and making tofu is lucrative, so everyone planted soy instead of corn.”

UPDATE: The article does not suggest that the food situation is getting better.  People are also economizing their consumption which mutes demand to some degree (eating two meals a day for instance). 

Read this very interesting article here:
Doing Business Is a Battle
Daily NK 
Jung Kwon Ho
6/18/2008

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Russia donates food to DPRK

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

After China and the USA made high-profile food donations to North Korea, the Russians finally joined the game.  Russia’s Foreign Minister claims that by the end of June his country will have sent 3,000 tons of flour to UN World Food Program distributors in North Korea. The first aid deliveries arrived in North Korea by train on June 11.

I am surprised Russia waited so long to get into the game.  Russia has been prodding North Korea to link its Trans-Siberian rail traffic to South Korea, and they want to make sure the Chinese don’t squeeze them out of North Korea’s Raijin Port (which does not freeze in the winter).  Food aid might not have helped these processes along, but waiting so long to jump on the bandwagon can’t have helped. 

In March of this year, the Russians inked a deal to renovate the railway lines between their border and Raijin (the tracks are different gagues).

Read about the aid here: 
Russia to deliver 3,000 tons of flour to North Korea
Novosti
6/9/2008

Russia sends food aid to North Korea
Associated Press
6/19/2008

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China softens food export ban on DPRK

Monday, June 9th, 2008

Good Friends reports (via Yonhap) that China recently increased its yearly grain export quota to North Korea from 50,000 to 150,000 tons to help ease the DPRK’s food shortage.  China initially restricted food exports because of its rising domestic food prices.

North Korea’s corn imports from China rose 1,523 percent to 27,600 tons in February this year alone from the same period last year, according to statistics released recently by the Chinese authorities.

Read the full story here:
China softens food export ban to help alleviate N.K. food shortage: aid group
Yonhap
6/9/2008

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Recent rice prices skyrocket in DPRK

Friday, June 6th, 2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
5/6/2008

Even North Korea’s North and South Hwanghae Provinces, an area known as the DPRK’s ‘Ricebowl’, now appears to be suffering severe rice shortages, with prices at the end of last month hitting 4,000~4,500 DPRK Won per kg, more than three times the cost of a kilogram of rice last February, according to a June 5 report by Good Friends, a human rights group focusing its efforts on North Korea.

According to Good Friends’ latest newsletter, prices across South Hwanghae Province all rose to 4,500 DPRK Won on May 30, and at the same time, prices in South Hwanghae rose to over 4,000 DPRK Won per kg. In Sariwon, North Hwanghae Province, rice was 1,350 DPRK Won/kg in February, rose to 1,700 DPRK Won/kg in March, climbed again to 2,200 DPRK Won/kg in April, then shot up to 2,500 DPRK Won/kg on the 10 th of last month, 3,500 DPRK Won on the 25 th, and 4,200 DPRK Won on the 30 th. As the average monthly wage of a North Korean laborer is thought to be around 3,000 DPRK Won, rice selling at 4,000 DPRK Won/kg is well out of reach.

Corn prices in the Sariwon region at the end of last month was 1,950 DPRK Won/kg, 270 percent higher than the 720 Won prices seen in February, and the newsletter reported that prices throughout North and South Hwanghae Province were generally 1,950-2000 DPRK Won/kg. In particular, the newsletter stressed that at one military base in the Hwanghae area, rations have run so short that officers with children under the age of 12 will be ordered to send their families to their parents’ or in-law’s house until rations are reissued in November.

The newsletter drives the point home by pointing out, “These officers that send their families will take their meals on base…this is the first time since the ‘arduous march’ that there has been an order to send families [away] because of this kind of ration shortage.”

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“The Economist” on Pyongyang Trade Fair

Sunday, June 1st, 2008

From The Economist:

Originally designed to promote business-to-business contacts, the trade fair, along with a companion event in the autumn, has become one of the few opportunities for North Koreans—or, more accurately, a few thousand residents of the capital—to buy, or gawk at, foreign merchandise. More than 100 Chinese companies, together with some from Taiwan, Indonesia, Britain and North Korea itself, offered up everything from T-shirts to heavy machinery. Cutting-edge technology it wasn’t. Duvets, refrigerators, flat-screen televisions, DVD players, cooking pots and cosmetics were the most popular items. More than 15 units of one of the show’s most expensive items, a $1,200 refrigerator from Haier, a Chinese company, were snapped up. Counterfeit iPods were also popular, even if downloading is illegal.

In pursuit of the country’s goal of becoming a net exporter, around 40 local enterprises also displayed their wares, including medicines, oil paintings, machinery, spectacles and a polarised-light device that the makers claimed could cure any disease. But it was the imports that galvanised people’s inner shopper. A billboard at the entrance trumpeted the slogan “Building an Independent National Economy” and included numerous photographs of Kim Jong Il and his father inspecting farms and factories, a reminder to visitors of the all-embracing love and compassion of the Kim family. As the shopfest ended, however, some North Koreans refused to leave, demanding that the event’s organiser allow them to continue their buying spree. The dear leader’s love apparently wasn’t enough.

For a different perspective, read this post by Dr. Petrov.

Read the article here:
North Korea’s new rich
How the other 0.0000001% live
The Economist
5/29/2008

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Blame it on the weather…

Wednesday, May 28th, 2008

As with the famine that struck the DPRK in the 1990’s, known as the “Arduous March,” the North Korean government is again blaming the weather for the food shortage. 

From Reuters:

North Korea’s farm sector will take a hit due to cold weather and low precipitation this planting season, its official media said on Wednesday, after experts had warned the destitute state could be heading toward famine.

“The current spring weather has a bad effect on agriculture in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea),” its official KCNA news agency reported.

“The abnormal weather has seriously affected the growth of maize crops on a vast acreage of fields, cultivation of rice-seedlings and the striking of roots of rice-seedlings in the west coastal areas, the granary,” KCNA reported. 

From the Associated Press (via the IHT):

North Korea’s average high temperature in May has been about 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than in previous years, with temperatures in northern parts of the nation dipping below the freezing point, the official Korean Central News Agency said.

It is true that the weather is a factor, but these effects can be mitigated by better policy solutions.  Cracking down on local markets and chasing after entrepreneurs certainly does not help either.

According to Glyn Ford, member of the European Parliament:

[T]he Vice-Chair of the State Planning Comission said when I met him, “Agricultural reforms proved better than fertilizer at raising productivity.”

Read the full articles here:
Food-short N.Korea says farms hit by bad weather
Reuters
5/28/2008

North Korea says cold weather seriously affecting farming
Associated Press (via Herald Tribune)
5/28/2008

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DPRK gets new golf course

Wednesday, May 28th, 2008

UPDATE:  The Kumgangsan Golf Course is located here (Wikimapia), though it is still under construction in these dated images.

ORIGINAL POST: The DPRK’s golf facilities are all easily recognizable from Google Earth:  There is the 18 hole course half-way between Pyongyang and Nampo; there is a smaller 9-hole course next to the Yangakdo Hotel; there is a driving range in the Sosan sports district; and there is even a three hole course east of town just south of the Ponghwa Barrage on the Taedong River (This area could be the Ponghwa Executive Apartments mentioned in Kim il Song’s North Korea).

According to Yonhap, the DPRK has successfully expanded their number of golf holes by 60%–increasing them from 30 to 48:

The “Kumgang Ananti Golf and Spa Resort,” including a 18-hole golf course, will open to the public Wednesday after nearly four years of construction, Emerson Pacific Group, a Seoul-based leisure firm, said.

Built on about 1.7 million square meters of land, the resort also has a spa, a hotel and restaurants that provide nice sea and mountain views, according to Kim Min-jeong, a publicity official of the company.

The golf course has already drawn media attention over its 929-meter number three hole, the world’s longest.

The facility, however, will be operated on a membership-only basis for the time being, Kim said, adding that the company plans to open the facility to individual tourists around next year.

Emerson Pacific is waiting for Pyongyang to give the company permission to employ about 200 North Koreans, including 60 caddies, at the resort, the official said.

Read the full story here:
Golf course to open at North Korea’s Mt. Geumgang
Yonhap
5/27/2008

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South Korea to ease regulations on DPRK ventures

Thursday, May 22nd, 2008

Institute for Far Easter Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-5-22-1
5/22/2008

Earlier this month, the South Korean government announced that it would seek to relax regulations concerning cooperative ventures and exchanges with North Korea. Currently, South Korean companies, organizations or individuals wishing to enter into business agreements with North Korean partners were required to get government permission not only for the project, but for the individuals involved in the project.

On May 8, the Ministry of Unification announced plans to abolish the system granting (or denying) permission to individuals involved in these ventures, and to maintain only the system through which it grants authority to carry out specific projects.

Cross-border traffic faced similar red tape, as permission was required not only for goods being imported or exported, but for the importers and exporters themselves. The new plan includes measures for these import and export regulations to be loosened so that it is only the goods that need review, not the people involved in the trade. In addition, trucks and other equipment used to carry goods across the border will be certified for a period of five years, more than twice as long as the current two-year licensing system.

The government is also moving to ease requirements calling for South Korean citizens to report all contact with North Koreans, and instead to require reports on conversations only if the topic falls outside that of the approved project.

Reflecting the growing amount and diverse nature of inter-Korean cooperative projects, and the ROK government’s policy of encouraging such exchange, this new proposal is aimed at reducing the red tape and paperwork hassles necessary to launch and carry out these projects by reducing the amount of information required by the applicant and the volume of cross-checking required by government offices. At the same time, the proposal calls for the introduction of fines for those found to be filing false applications or reports.

If this proposal does not get mired in the Cabinet or other committees, it is expected to reach the floor of the National Assembly sometime in June.

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