Archive for March, 2010

RoK estimates DPRK 1,000 missiles

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

According to NTI:

In the last two years, North Korea has increased the size of its estimated missile arsenal by 25 percent to 1,000 weapons, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young asserted today

The North’s cache of missiles includes intermediate-range ballistic missiles, Rodongs and Scuds, said a ministry spokeswoman to Agence France-Presse. In 2008, the agency believed that Pyongyang had 800 missiles.

A significant number of the missiles are fielded close to the two nations’ border and are aimed at Seoul and other sites within South Korea, officials have said.

The Yonhap News Agency recently reported that Pyongyang had established a new army detachment assigned to manage deployment of medium-range missiles that are thought to be able to reach U.S. military installations in Guam and Japan.

North Korea has also carried out three test-firings of intercontinental Taepodong missiles, which are potentially meant to fly as far as Alaska

Read the full story here:
North Korea’s Missile Stockpile Jumps to 1,000, South Says
NTI
3/17/2010

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DPRK revises law on Rason zone and enacts law on coal to attract foreign investment

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-03-17-1
2010-03-17

Following North Korea’s decision to raise the status of the Rajin-Sonbong region to the ‘Rason Special City’, it has revised the ‘Law on the Rajin-Sonbong Trade Zone’, considerably boosting the likelihood that the region will attract the foreign investment necessary to develop the free trade zone, as the revised law further protects investor activities in Rason.

The Rajin-Sonbong region was designated a ‘Free Economic and Trade Zone’ in 1991, but had very little economic impact. Over the years, North Korean authorities have enacted a few measures to try to keep the project alive, but there has been no significant turnaround. With the revision of the law on Rason, North Korean authorities are again focusing their attention on the region, with the goal of ‘opening the door to a strong and prosperous nation’ by 2012. It is also possible that the regime is eyeing the development of the region as a tool to solidify the transfer of power to yet a third Kim.

In December, 2009, after designating the special economic and trade zone, Kim Jong Il traveled to ‘Rason City’ for the first time in 18 years. Jang Song Thaek, director of the administrative bureau of the (North) Korean Workers’ Party, has also visited the area, leading observers to believe that even working-level preparations are being made following the policy decision to highlight the area.

The law on Rason, revised on January 27, is now made up of 5 chapters and 45 articles. 6 of those articles specifically concern promotion of the investment area and trade with overseas Koreans.

The most eye-catching article is no. 8, which addresses economic and trade activities by overseas Koreans. This type of activity was already protected by the existing law, but the revision reiterates that Koreans living outside of the North are allowed to carry out economic activities and trade in an attempt to snare investments from North Koreans living in China and Japan, as well as other diasporas.

In addition, Article 21 addresses the economic dealings of enterprises, groups and organizations outside of the zone, and stipulates that these groups operating within the Rason Special City would be able to engage in business activities with North Korean businesses in other regions. This essentially legalizes the sale of goods produced in the zone throughout the country.

Article 3, addressing investment opportunities, stipulates that investors are allowed to engage in business regarding manufacturing, farming, construction, transportation, communications, science and technology, tourism, distribution, and finance.

By revising the existing law, North Korean authorities have strengthened incentives for investors.

The latest revision also set the basic income tax of enterprises at 14 percent, while stating that enterprises specifically designated by the government would be taxed at a rate of 10 percent.

Furthermore, Article 2 of the revision emphasizes the tourism and investment roles of the special zone, referring to the zone as one for ‘investment, a transport hub, finance, tourism, and public service,” adding ‘investment’ and ‘tourism’ to those activities stipulated in the original law. The Rason Zone Law has been revised five times since its passing in 1993, undergoing change in 1999, 2002, 2005, 2007 and now 2010.

Authorities also revised the law on coal, which now legally regulates the exploration, distribution and use of coal, by the addition of Chapter 6 Article 76 of the ‘Coal Law’. Article 1 lays out the basis of the North’s law on coal, while Article 2 covers exploration, Article 3, ‘mine development,’ Article 4, ‘coal production,’ Article 5, ‘coal distribution and use,’ and Article 6, ‘management structure regarding the coal industry.’ The new law advocates “expansion of cooperation and exchange with other countries and international organizations on the exploration and mining development, as well as production and use.”

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DPRK should open dialogue for funds

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

According to the AFP:

North Korea should first open dialogue with the world if it wants foreign investment to revive its troubled economy, a senior World Bank official said Monday.

Jim Adams, World Bank vice president for East Asia and Pacific, said it had yet to be approached by Pyongyang in connection with its reported plan to raise foreign funds by setting up its own development bank.

Adams, in Tokyo to meet Japanese officials and lawmakers, said it was a “key challenge” for the communist state to first map out its own plan to approach the outside world.

“Once those decisions are made, I think there can be an appropriate response,” Adams told a news conference. “But so far I don’t see those decisions having been made.”

There is no doubt that the DPRK needs foreign investment.  The problem is credible commitment to contract terms and the kinds of concessions investors will require.

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Altai to begin supplying flour to North Korea

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

According to Itar-Tass:

The Altai Territory will supply a test batch of flour to North Korea weighing 2,000 tons. The concern Altaiskiye Melnitsy (Altai Mills) signed a corresponding contract with the foreign trade state amalgamation of North Korea, ITAR-TASS learnt at the enterprise on Tuesday.

“Further increasing of volumes of supplies will mainly depend on the export price of flour,” general director Sergei Klinov said. The currently in force railway tariff from the Altai Territory to the border with North Korea, and this is about 3,600 roubles per ton, exceeds half the cost of flour in the export price structure. In such a situation, the issue of quality may become secondary for North Korea, and it will continue buying flour in China.”

Read the full stoy here:
Altai to begin supplying flour to North Korea
Itar-Tass
3/16/2010

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DPRK Merchants (1)* vs. Somali Pirates (1)

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

UPDATE: Well I am very surprised. Someone (probably a Singaporean) paid the ransom for the North Korean crew. According to the AFP:

Somali pirates on Tuesday freed a chemical tanker with 28 North Korean sailors on board after receiving 3.5 million dollars in ransom, a maritime official said.

The Virgin Islands-owned, Singapore-operated MV Theresa VIII was hijacked on November 16 some 180 nautical miles northwest of the Seychelles.

“It was freed today. The crew is safe,” said Andrew Mwangura, the head of the East African Seafarers Assistance Programme.

Mwangura said a 3.5 million-dollar ransom was paid to free the tanker.

The European Union naval force off the Somali coast confirmed the payment of a ransom.

“An unknown ransom was exchanged on the morning of 16 March and the ship is now underway and heading out to sea,” the EU NAVFOR said in a statement.

“No immediate assistance has been requested but EU NAVFOR will continue to monitor the situation,” it added.

The ship had been moved between the pirates’ stronghold coastal villages of Garaad and Harardhere in northern Somalia.

Its captain, whose nationality was not revealed, died a few days after the hijacking in which the pirates opened fire.

The MV Theresa VIII was headed to the Kenyan port town of Mombasa, its initial destination, Mwangura said.

The Somali pirates, who raked in at least 60 million dollars in ransom money last year, currently hold at least six ships and around 120 seamen hostage.

There is also a DPRK flagged vessel that was hijaked by Somali pirates in February.  As best I can tell, this vessel is still being held for ransom.

ORIGINAL POST: In October 2007 the US Navy assisted some North Korean merchants in their victory over Somali pirates.  In a grudge match this week, however, the North Koreans succumbed to the new Somali pirate team.  The score is now 1-1.

According to the BBC:

A chemical tanker with a crew of 28 North Koreans has been hijacked by pirates in waters off Somalia, the EU’s naval force (Navfor) says.

The MV Theresa VIII, a Singaporean-operated tanker, was taken on Monday in the south Somali Basin, 180 nautical miles north-west of the Seychelles.

It had been heading for Mombasa, Kenya, but was diverted north, Navfor said.

The MV Theresa VIII, the owner of which is based in the Virgin Islands, is a tanker of 22,294 deadweight tonnes, said Navfor, the EU naval force operating in the region to protect shipping.

Some thoughts:

1. Globalization in action: The ship is owned by someone in the Virgin Islands, managed by a Singaporean company, operated by a North Korean crew, and taken hostage by Somali pirates.

2. As sad as it sounds, hiring North Korean crews might be an effective anti-piracy strategy.  Here is why: Pirates hold (a) the ship, (b) the cargo, and (c) the crew as hostages to be traded for ransom. Using simple expected value calculations, this means that the rational pirate will pillage if:  [P(probability of success)] x [$(a+b+c)] > the next best opportunity to earn income.  This ignores risk tolerance, but you get the idea. If you lower the $ value of the payload by hiring workers who will not earn a ransom, then the expected value of the captured ship falls and fewer pirates will attack.  If this plays out in a way that the Somalis lose money on North Korean crews (because who is going to pay their ransom), we should expect to see more shipping companies hiring North Korean crews and painting North Korean flags on their vessels! Old ships + North Korean crew + agricultural goods = waste of time for pirates.

*  win with assistance from the US Navy.

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Pscore’s got the word on helping new defectors

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

Joong Ang Daily
Eldo Kim
3/17/2010

Walking through the busy streets of metropolitan Seoul, Lee (an alias) seems no different than the hundreds of Koreans around her.

Stopping by a cafe, she purchases a cup of coffee and hurries out to the subway station. Following the everyday actions of millions of fellow urbanites, there is nothing unusual about her.

But there is something that sets her apart. Lee is a North Korean refugee who defected in 2005. Lee is also a student at People for Successful Corean Reunification, or Pscore.

Established in 2006, Pscore is a non-governmental organization consisting entirely of volunteers, with bases in Washington, D.C. and Seoul.

While it provides news coverage of North Korea and helping defectors become South Korean citizens, a unique aspect of this organization is that it offers educational programs for refugees. Tutors, a mix of foreigners and English-speaking Koreans, meet one-on-one on a weekly basis with individuals to teach subjects ranging from English to mathematics.

Although Pscore has only run its tutoring program for 20 months, at any given time there are around 60 to 70 refugee students registered.

According to the Ministry of Unification, in 2000, only 312 North Korean refugees escaped to South Korea. In 2008, the number of escapees rose to 2,809. In the past few years, the population of North Korean refugees in South Korea has grown so rapidly that the government is only offering $10,000 in resettlement money per refugee, instead of to the previous amount of $28,000.

Also, Hanawon, a government-sponsored training center for North Korean escapees, has reduced its program cycles from three months to two months.

Pscore seeks to fill the gaps in already existent assimilation aid for North Korean defectors.

One Pscore student, Chae, who asked to be anonymous, defected from North Korea in April 2006. After enrolling in college to study medical science, she was surprised that 40 to 50 percent of the lectures were in English. Looking for English lessons, Chae found Pscore through friends who were being tutored already. A year has passed, and she feels that her English lessons will be invaluable to her goal of becoming a nurse in the United States.

Like Chae, 70 percent of Pscore students seek help mostly in English as its usage has increased in South Koreans’ daily lives and the workplace.

“In the 21st century, the acculturation process of South Korea has been profoundly influenced by the West. The culture shock that North Korean emigrants experience when they settle in South Korea is worsened by the constant presence of English, a language that is restricted mostly to the elite in North Korea,” said Choi Hyun-chul, the president of the Korean Society for Journalism and Communication Studies.

As a young organization, there are still problems that the organization must fix.

“Frequently, there are tutors who are not very sincere about their work or do not put in all their effort in teaching refugees.” says Lee, a 35-year-old North Korean college student, citing several English tutors who frequently canceled meetings or didn’t show up. She said that perhaps Pscore should be more selective in choosing its volunteer tutors.

Score hopes that South Koreans would be more willing to welcome North Korean refugees with open arms, rather than a cold shoulder.

“On a societal level, the atmosphere in South Korea is not very supportive or encouraging of the refugees. The average citizen doesn’t care much about their issues,” said An Seung-woo, secretary general of Pscore.

Mary Anderson, an American teacher in Seoul who tutors for Pscore, commented likewise.

“Tutoring the students is simply delightful, and without a doubt, they’re some of the hardest working students I’ve ever seen. But, there is shockingly a lot of prejudice. I knew a North Korean woman dating a Canadian man in South Korea who desperately wanted to move to Canada because of how unwelcome she felt in South Korea.”

Pscore is looking forward to conducting research about reunification of the two Koreas and expanding their tutoring program in the future.

“Whenever a refugee gets accepted into college or achieves employment, we feel a sense of distinct accomplishment and pride,” says Pscore.

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Kim’s European bank accounts

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

According to the Daily Telegraph (UK):

Kim Jong-il, the Supreme Leader of North Korea, has a $4 billion (£2.6 billion) “emergency fund” hidden in secret accounts in European banks that he will use to continue his lavish way of life if he is forced to flee the country.

South Korean intelligence officials told The Daily Telegraph that much of the money was held in Swiss banks until authorities there began to tighten regulations on money laundering.

Mr Kim’s operatives then withdrew the money – in cash, in order not to leave a paper trail – and transferred it to banks in Luxembourg.

The money is the profits from impoverished North Korea selling its nuclear and missile technology, dealing in narcotics, insurance fraud, the use of forced labour in its vast gulag system, and the counterfeiting of foreign currency.

“I believe this is the most extensive money-laundering operation in the history of organised crime, yet the final destination of the funds has not been given the proper attention it deserves,” said Ken Kato, the director of Human Rights in Asia.

“Somewhere in the world, there are bankers who are earning a large sum of money by concealing and managing Kim Jong-il’s secret funds, and at the same time, almost nine million people in North Korea are suffering from food shortages,” he said. “I believe the secret bank accounts are now in Luxembourg, or have recently been transferred from Luxembourg to other tax havens.”

A spokesman for the Luxembourg government said that it was obliged to investigate all transactions involving Stalinist North Korea.

“The problem is that they do not have ‘North Korea’ written all over them,” he added. “They try to hide and they try to erase as many links as possible.”

Read the full article below:
Kim Jong-il keeps $4bn ’emergency fund’ in European banks
Daily Telegraph (UK)
Oliver Arlow
3/14/2010

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North Koreans working on South African football stadiums

Sunday, March 14th, 2010

UPDATE:  Football officials deny DPRK laborers working on stadiums. South Korea trying to confirm.

ORIGINAL POST: Over the last few years I have developed a growing catalogue of North Korean-made buildings and monuments in Africa (like this)–so I was very interested to read that North Korean laborers are working on South Africa’s World Cup football stadiums.

According to the Joong Ang Daily:

When North Korean national football players take the field against the Ivory Coast in their final Group G match in the 2010 International Football Association’s World Cup in South Africa, they will be playing at a stadium their compatriots helped build.

South Korean sources said yesterday North Korean laborers are helping to put the finishing touch on stadiums across South Africa ahead of the World Cup, which will kick off in June.

“North Koreans have been put to work on four to five stadiums that require renovation, including Soccer City stadium in Johannesburg [satellite image here], where the opening and closing ceremonies, plus the final will be staged,” a source said. “There are an estimated 1,000 North Koreans there.”

One such stadium is Mbombela Stadium in Nelspruit (Location here but image takem before construction). The North will face the Ivory Coast on June 25 in this 43,500-seat stadium.The South African government has slated 12 billion rand, or $1.6 billion, for 10 stadiums in nine different cities, and North Korean laborers are expected to reap tens of thousands of dollars for their job.

“During the Kim Il Sung era, North Korea built football stadiums and even presidential halls in African nations,” recalled Lim Il, a North Korean defector who used to work for a construction company in the North. “Perhaps such experience helped secure the South African job.”

North Korea and South Africa established formal diplomatic ties in August 1998. This is their first major personnel exchange since then. It is not yet clear if the workers in South Africa will return home upon completing the World Cup work or will be dispatched to other construction projects.

Helping South Africa can be interpreted as an attempt to earn some much-needed foreign capital. North Korea has up to 30,000 laborers in China, Russia and some Middle Eastern countries. Last September, North Korea sent nearly 50 workers from the state-run Mansudae Art Studio in Pyongyang to construct the 160-foot, $27-million statue depicting a family rising from a volcano in Senegal.

One South Korean government official said, “The North government will likely demand loyalty from those workers and collect their wages to add to their foreign currency reserve.”

If anyone can help me identify the stadiums on which the North Koreans are working I would appreciate it.

Read the full story here:
North hard at work on Cup stadiums
Joong Ang Daily
Lee Young-jong
3/15/2010

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DPRK seeks hike in embassy rent

Sunday, March 14th, 2010

According to the Joong Ang Daily:

North Korea has unilaterally raised rental fees for offices of foreign embassies and international agencies by 20 percent this year, at the same time that it tightens its grip on communications at the establishments, sources said.

A source privy to North Korean affairs said last week that the North Korean Foreign Ministry sent notices to the foreign offices last October and the increase took effect at the beginning of this year. The source also said commodity prices in markets specifically set up for foreigners have soared.

“Following the currency reform last November, the North may have wanted to earn some foreign currency by raising the rents and commodity prices,” the source said. “As far as I know, diplomats and their families are angry that the North has violated diplomatic protocols.”

Pyongyang has diplomatic offices for 25 nations, plus the office for World Food Program among other the United Nations agencies. Most rent out space in buildings owned by North Korea.

Pyongyang-based diplomats have also been asked to celebrate North Korean holidays by purchasing flowers or writing congratulatory messages.

“On Kim Jong-il’s 68th birthday last month, the North asked the diplomats to buy wreaths, made up of ‘the Kim Jong-il flowers,’ and write messages praying for Kim’s health under the ambassador’s name,” one source explained. The source did not know if the diplomats complied.

North Korea is also cracking down on the flow of information within foreign missions and agencies. The North rejected a request by a UN agency to use the Internet to send documents to UN headquarters. When diplomats make international phone calls, North Korean interpreters are there to listen in on the conversation, sources said.

“The North may want to block any details on Kim Jong-il’s health, disruption after the currency reform or other domestic affairs from reaching the outside world,” a South Korean government official said.

One Western diplomat, asking for anonymity, recently complained to a South Korean government official that diplomats in Pyongyang can’t talk to each other freely for fear of others listening in, and that they only vent their frustration when they’re out of North Korea.

In addition to making money from the foreign embassies in Pyongyang, the DPRK earns revenue from its embassies abroad.  See here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Most Pyongyang embassies (aside from Russia and China) are located in Munsudong (satellite image here). Recent photos of Pyongyang’s diplomatic quater here.

This is a fascinating topic.  What are the rental rates now?  How are they determined?  If anyone has an idea, please let me know.

Read the stories below:
Diplomats in North face price hike
Joong Ang Daily
Lee Young-jong
3/15/2010

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DPRK revises Rason investment law

Sunday, March 14th, 2010

According to Yonhap:

North Korea has recently revised a law governing its Rason free trade zone in a bid to speed up its development and attract more foreign investment, including from South Korea, officials in Seoul said Sunday.

According to the South Korean officials, a clause allowing “Korean compatriots living outside the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)” to engage in economic and trade activities in Rason has been newly included in the legal code.

The Korea Times has some more information:

The North had banned South Korean investors from Rason in a 1999 revision.

Under the latest revision, the reclusive state will lower tax rates and simplify administrative procedures for foreign investors who want to establish branch and agent offices there, the official said.

The revision took effect Jan. 22 when Pyongyang upgraded the status of Rason to a special city, he said.

The official anticipated that South Korean firms would do business in the zone, saying the latest revision is a positive sign of North Korea opening its doors to outside world.

The North designated Rason and nearby Sonbong, located on the country’s northernmost coast close to both China and Russia, as an economic free trade zone in 1991. The zone was renamed Rason later.

But efforts to attract foreign investment and capital have failed. North Korea aimed to attract $7 billion worth of foreign investment into Rason, but actual investment amounted to only $140 million.

There are an estimated 400 foreign businesses operating in North Korea, but most of them are small businesses run by Chinese or North Korean residents of Japan.

The Choson Ilbo adds more:

Article 8 of the revised law makes it possible for “Koreans” living outside North Korea to do business in the special zone, apparently with a view to attracting South Korean investors.

It also removes a clause requiring foreign companies to obtain government approval when they open sales offices or branches in the zone, making it easier to enter the North Korean market.

Instead, approval is with a new agency overseeing the Rajin-Sonbong zone.

But foreign firms and their staff are explicitly under North Korean jurisdiction, including all the draconian laws that apply to North Koreans.

The previous law permitted foreign investors unconditional no-visa entry and stay in North Korea, but under the new rules they are restricted to the zone.

Corporate income tax is reduced from 14 percent to 10 percent “in sectors particularly promoted by the state.” But other terms related to customs, land lease and bank loans remain unchanged.

One former investor is shouting caveat emptor.  According to the Choson Ilbo:

“I blew $500,000 on Rajin-Sonbong 15 years ago,” recalls Roh Jeong-ho, who headed the first South Korean business to set up operations in North Korea’s Rajin-Sonbong Economic Special Zone in 1995.

Roh (46) is scathing about North Korea’s latest attempts to woo investment to the impoverished Stalinist nation. “It’ll be a repeat of the 1990s, which ended in a belly-flop,” he said. “Nothing has changed in North Korea.”

Roh was once touted by the South Korean media as one of the young leaders in his early 30s who were expected to lead the post-unification era when he exported 44 km of barbed-wire fences to Rajin-Sonbong in 1995. North Korea had asked Roh to supply the fences to isolate the area from ordinary North Koreans. In return, the North offered him the use of 33,000 sq. m of land in the free zone for 50 years.

But there was a catch. The problem was a clause in the contract stipulating that the groundwork on facilities to be built within the leased land must be completed within two years. North Korea continued to make unreasonable demands regarding construction when the area was devoid of crucial infrastructure like roads, running water and electricity, and construction had to be delayed.

At first, the North threatened to scrap the barbed-wire order, complaining that the deal was revealed to South Korean media. Roh managed to calm the North Koreans, but then they started making new demands. They even told Roh to supply equipment to guards who were posted along the fence, including tazers and high-voltage current generators.

“North Korean government workers operate under a bizarre, performance-based system,” Roh said. “Their performance is gauged based on how much they are able to extort from South Korean businesses.”

Roh said his North Korean business partners often changed as they were either promoted or demoted based on their performance, requiring negotiations to start from scratch every time. After two years passed without Roh being able to complete groundwork on his allotted land, the right was revoked. He ended up wasting close to US$1 million, including expenses on top of the $500,000 cost of producing the barbed wire.

“If you’re not careful, you could end up losing everything,” he warned. He added that the business prospects are riddled with traps. “We tend to believe that the North Koreans would be accommodating since we are ‘compatriots,’ but that’s a big mistake,” Roh said. “North Korea extends its invitation to South Korean businesses in order to use them as window dressing to attract Chinese and Russian investors.”

Additional information:

1. At least one South Korean company is making the move to Rason.

2. China now has a 10-year lease in Rason.

3. I mapped out the fence built with Mr. Roh’s wire.

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