North Korean Economy Watch

You can download a PDF of  the Bank of Korea’s report here.

I have a collection of previous Bank of Korea reports on the North Korean economy here.

Yonhap reports on the findings:

The North Korean economy contracted for the second straight year in 2010 due to tougher international sanctions and sluggish agricultural production, the South Korean central bank estimated Thursday.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) estimated that the communist country’s economy shrank 0.5 percent on-year last year, compared with a 0.9 percent contraction in 2009. The data stood in sharp contrast to the 6.2 percent expansion of the South Korean economy in 2010.

The North Korean economy grew 3.1 percent in 2008 on one-off factors after shrinking 1 percent in 2006 and 1.2 percent in 2007, when heavy flooding hit its agricultural production and its relations with the international community deteriorated.

“Last year, the North Korean economy contracted as economic conditions at home and abroad worsened amid energy shortages and international sanctions and its manufacturing sector remained sluggish,” said Park Yung-hwan, an official at the BOK.

North Korea suffers chronic food and energy shortages due to years of isolation, mismanagement and natural disasters. The communist state has relied on international handouts since 1995 to help feed its more than 20 million people.

Last year, inter-Korean relations turned sourer following the North’s deadly sinking of a South Korean warship in March and its shelling of a border island in November.

The North’s agricultural and fishery industry contracted 2.1 percent last year from a year earlier, more than double the 1 percent fall of 2009. Its manufacturing sector declined 0.3 percent in 2010.

North Korea’s nominal gross national income (GNI) amounted to 30 trillion won (US$26.5 billion) last year, which is only 2.56 percent of South Korea’s GNI of 1,173 trillion won.

Meanwhile, inter-Korean trade grew 13.9 percent on-year to $1.91 billion, the BOK said.

Park said although chilly inter-Korean relations and following economic sanctions cut off trade such as humanitarian aid, shipments of goods produced at the Kaesong industrial complex rose.

The value of North Korean products shipped the South reached $1 billion last year, up 11.7 percent from the previous year. South Korean shipments to the North grew 16.6 percent to $868.3 million.

Bloomberg reports on the findings here:

North Korea’s economy shrank for two consecutive years as cold weather and rain hurt farming and power and raw material shortages cut industrial output, South Korea’s central bank said.

Gross domestic product contracted 0.5 percent in last year after a 0.9 percent decline in 2009, according to an estimate published by the Bank of Korea in Seoul today. Measured using nominal gross domestic product, a figure that isn’t adjusted for inflation, North Korea’s GDP totaled 30 trillion won ($26.5 billion) in 2010, compared with South Korea’s 1,173 trillion won, the central bank said in an e-mailed statement. North Korea’s per capita income was 1.24 million won while South Korea’s was 24 million won, according to the estimate.

“Major industries were hampered by bad weather, poor energy and raw material supply, and the international economic sanctions on the country,” the Bank of Korea said.

North Korea has relied on economic handouts since the mid-1990s when an estimated 2 million people died from famine, according to South Korea’s central bank. The United Nations and the U.S. last year increased economic sanctions imposed on the country as a result of its nuclear weapons activities after attacks that killed 50 South Koreans.

South Korea, whose economy is 40 times larger than North Korea’s, plans to set up a fund as early as this year to begin raising as much as 55 trillion won to pay for eventual reunification with North Korea, the South Korean Unification Minister Yu Woo Ik said in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this week.

Nuclear Program

The fund would meet the minimum cost of unification estimated by external researchers, assuming it takes place within the next 20 years and is a peaceful transition. Yu said the cost may be as high as 269 trillion won, or almost a quarter of South Korea’s 2010 gross domestic product.

North Korea and South Korea remain technically at war after their 1950-1953 conflict ended in a cease-fire. Six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, involving China, Japan, Russia, the U.S. and South Korea, haven’t convened since 2008. U.S. and North Korean officials resumed direct talks last month.

The UN increased sanctions banning trading in weapons and restricting financial transactions after North Korea carried out its second nuclear test in May 2009. The country’s first test occurred in 2006.

Intelligence Reports

The nation’s economy has contracted during four of the last five years, according to data collected by the Bank of Korea.

North Korea doesn’t release official economic data. South Korea’s central bank releases an annual estimate of North Korea’s economic growth, based on information from the National Intelligence Service of South Korea and other related organizations.

North Korea’s population rose to 24.19 million last year from 24.06 million in 2009, about half of South Korea’s. Inter- Korean trade rose 13.9 percent from a year earlier to $1.9 billion last year, South Korea’s central bank said.

North Korea relies on China to prop up its economy, with bilateral trade accounting for 83 percent of the country’s $4.2 billion in international commerce last year, according to the Seoul-based Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency.

North Korea’s exports, except for shipments to South Korea, rose 42.5 percent to $1.5 billion last year, driven by minerals, base metals, and textiles, according to the Bank of Korea. Imports increased 13.2 percent to $2.7 billion in 2010, the central bank said.

Agriculture and fisheries account for 20.8 percent of North Korea’s industry compared with 2.6 percent in South Korea. Manufacturing took about 22 percent in North Korea, less than South Korea’s 31 percent, according to the central bank.

The Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) published the following:

The North Korean economy is facing a minus growth rate for two years straight as a result of worsening climate conditions and a slumping manufacturing industry.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) announced that North Korea’s real GDP last year decreased 0.5 percent against the previous year. According to the bank’s estimation, North Korea’s GDP recorded a 3.1 percent increase in 2008, a plus growth since the financial crisis. However, it fell into the minus growth range for two consecutive years from 2009.

South Korea’s economic growth, on the other hand, recorded an increase of 0.3 percent in 2009 and 6.2 percent in 2010, and the difference in growth between North and South Korea went from 1.2 percentage points to 6.7 percentage points, demonstrating about 5.6 times disparity between the two states.

In the BOK report, the North Korean economy is experiencing minus growth in agriculture, forestry and fishing industries, which are suffering from the extreme weather and sagging manufacturing industry — a consequence of the heavy focus placed on light industry.

The cold-weather and typhoon damages last year negatively impacted the agricultural production, recording a decrease of 2.1 percent against the previous year.

As for the mining industry, metallic and nonmetallic production increased despite the decrease in coal production, which fell 0.2 percent from the year before.

In spite of the increase in production in the heavy chemical industry, the manufacturing industry suffered from a decline of 0.3 percent, with waning production in light industry.

However, the service sector showed a 0.2 percent rise with improvement in the wholesale-retail and hospitality industries and increased businesses in transportation, communication, finance, insurance, and real estate.

The BOK has been publishing “GDP of the DPRK” and “Economic Growth of the DPRK” every year in June since 1991 based on information from the National Intelligence Service (of the ROK). This year’s report, however, was not released until just this month.

Contradictory to the report, some experts are claiming that there is a high possibility North Korea recorded a plus growth rate. Despite the BOK’s report that coal production fell 2 percent from the previous year, the Korea Institute of Unification Studies assessed that production of coal and iron ore recorded slight increases due to the improvements and expansion of facilities and power supply in the mining industry.

In addition, the BOK report’s view of North Korea’s economic revitalization is inconsistent with the testimonies and reports from domestic and overseas experts and officials who recently visited the North.

Some experts argue that, if the statistics provided by the BOK showing increased growth in the social and service sector were factual, “the construction plan of 100,000 house units in Pyongyang should create added value and continue to stimulate economic growth.”

The Daily NK also reported on the Bank of Korea findings.

The Financial Times also reported on the findings.

Here is the response in KCNA:

KCNA Commentary Terms ‘DPRK′s Economic Meltdown’ Absurd

Pyongyang, November 10 (KCNA) — Dishonest persons in the United States and south Korea are busy talking nonsense about the DPRK’s economic situation.

They have asserted that the economy in the DPRK has been on the decline for two consecutive years and that a certain country distributed a document recommending investors to be “careful” in their investment in the DPRK.

All these are sophism aimed to distort the true picture of the DPRK’s self-supporting economy.

The recent two years, mentioned by them, are a stirring period in the DPRK in which unprecedented miracles and innovations have been wrought in the efforts to improve the people’s standard of living and build socialism.

In this period the DPRK witnessed the successive completion of its plans for economic modernization, so ardently desired and accelerated by it with much efforts. In other word, it ushered in an epochal phase in building an economic power.

Today the DPRK’s economy is at the highest tide of its development ever in history.

Significant progress has been made in putting the national economy on a Juche-oriented, modern and scientific basis.

Epochal changes equivalent to the industrial revolution in the 21st century are taking place in the DPRK.

The DPRK entered a higher stage of socialist economic construction in which knowledge promotes the modern industry.

The Ryonha General Machinery Plant pushed back the frontiers in 11-axes processing. It is leading the world in CNC technology and machine-building industry.

The Juche-based steel-making system was perfected and Juche fibre and Juche fertilizer are being churned out in the country.

The DPRK also succeeded in nuclear fusion and made a signal progress in bio-engineering development.

The day is near at hand when a light water reactor entirely based on domestic resources and technology will come into operation in the DPRK.

Solid foundations have been laid for providing the people with rich material and cultural life and are now paying off in the country.

All these are a great fruition of the era of advance for great surge in which the Workers’ Party of Korea and the DPRK government secured powerful nuclear deterrent and, on this basis, concentrated efforts on the economic construction and the improvement of people’s living standard.

Our country has tremendous economic foundations and potentials and abundant resources, and it is in eco-geographically excellent location as a center in the Asia-Pacific region. Accordingly, other countries’ zeal for investment in it is growing higher with each passing day.

Signal turn is being brought in the development of its economic relations with neighboring countries.

This being a hard fact, some dishonest forces are getting hell-bent on smear propaganda. It is an absurd and reptile deed intended to hinder other countries’ investment in the DPRK and intercept its external economic relations. Lurking behind such deed is an ulterior scheme to sow discord in between the DPRK and China and between the DPRK and Russia the relations of which are developing on good terms day by day.

The talk about “DPRK’s economic meltdown” is little short of a false rumor floated by those who are astounded at the DPRK’s vigorous advance toward the victory in 2012.

The economic meltdown or collapse can be seen in the U.S. which has about 20 million destitute persons or in south Korea where more than 40 persons commit suicide everyday due to unemployment and destitution.

Poor sophism made by the hostile forces of the U.S. and south Korea means that they admitted themselves their defeat in the showdown with the DPRK.

It is the disposition and tradition of the army and people of the DPRK to advance with self-pride full of conviction despite the enemies’ despicable smear campaign.

The DPRK will as ever boost cooperation with all other countries friendly to it while more strikingly displaying the potentials and might of its independent economy.

UPDATE 1: Marcus Noland also made a few comments on the report.

UPDATE 2: Some additional analysis here.

Read the stories here:
N. Korean economy shrinks for 2nd year in 2010: BOK
Yonhap
2011-11-3

North Korea’s GDP Shrank in 2010, South’s Central Bank Says
Bloomberg
2011-11-3

Visits: According to the Daily NK, 116,400 North Koreans have visited China this year:

116,400 North Koreans visited China officially between January and September, 2011, according to new statistics released by the National Tourism Administration of China.

The statistics reveal that 55,000 of them visited to find work; 27,000 for a business trip; 3,000 were tourists; and 100 were visiting relatives. 24,000 did not record the purpose of their visit.

45,000 of them traveled by boat; 24,900 by airplane; 14,300 by train and 3,700 entered on foot.

The largest proportion was between the ages of 45 and 64 (52,000); 47,000 were between 24 and 44. 95,000 were men, and 14,900 were women.

According to the same statistics, the highest number of visitors to China in the same period came from South Korea (3.2 million trips), followed by Japan (2.6 million trips). Overall, North Korea ranks 11th out of the 15 countries in Asia.

Trade: According to the Associated Press:

China’s trade with its close ally North Korea nearly doubled in the first seven months of the year compared with the same period in 2010, state media reported Sunday.

The 87 percent increase to $3.1 billion was announced at the start of a visit to the North by Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang that reaffirms strong ties between the communist neighbors.

…

North Korea relies heavily on China for food and fuel aid and many consumer products. Chinese companies are the main investors in North Korean mining, and the sides recently signed agreements on road building and jointly developing an industrial park on an island near the Chinese city of Dandong.

“The economic and trade cooperation between the two countries has shown great potential, with bilateral trade and investment volume reaching new highs,” Xinhua said, citing the Chinese ambassador to Pyongyang, Liu Hongcai.

Bilateral trade between China and North Korea still is dwarfed by economic ties between China and South Korea. China is South Korea’s largest trade partner.

Trade between Beijing and Seoul rose more than 20 percent in the first eight months of the year to $159 billion and is expected to hit about $250 billion for all of 2011.

It should go without saying that officially reported merchandise trade between the PRC and DPRK understates the economic relationship between the two nations.   What goes unreported is illicit border trade, aid, military assistance and other forms of financial support.

Read the full stories here:
China says trade with NKorea has nearly doubled
Associated Press
2011-10-22

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2011-9-29

This year’s trade volume between China and the DPRK reached an all time high.

According to the (South) Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency, the trade volume between China and North Korea between January and July of 2011 recorded 3.097 billion USD, surpassing last year’s 3.472 billion USD by 88 percent.

This is the second year since 2008 for the yearly trade volume to continue to break the record of the previous year.

During the same period, China exported 1.783 billion USD and imported 1.314 billion USD to North Korea. Compared to the same period last year, exports increased by 53.3 percent while imports increased by 169.2 percent, and its trade surplus decreased by 30.4 percent.

The main exports of China are oil, diesel freight vehicles, nitrogenous fertilizers, and grains while the top imports were anthracites, steel, and non-alloy pig irons.

The total amount of fertilizer North Korea imported between January and June totaled 193,960 tons (equaling about 39.88 million USD), a hike of 91 percent against last year’s 99,588 tons (25.4 million USD).

The price per ton of imported fertilizers was 188 USD for ammonium sulfate fertilizer (164,456 ton) and 346 USD for urea fertilizers (25,577 ton). Last year, 59,110 tons of ammonium sulfate fertilizer and 45,310 tons of urea fertilizer were imported. A drastically higher amount of ammonium sulfate fertilizer was imported this year compared with the previous year, the cause of which is speculated to be either a radical decrease in the fertilizer production in North Korea or an attempt to improve the country’s food production.

The total amount of grains imported from China from January to June totaled 149,173 tons, a boost of 5.5 percent from the previous year. The price of grain per ton went up from 372 USD to 404 USD, a rise of 8.6 percent. The cost of imported grain increased 14.4 percent against last year, an increase from 52.7 million USD to 63.1 million USD.

The grains imported were corn (38.2 percent), flour (37.5 percent), rice (16.9 percent), and bean (7.2 percent). Compared to last year, corn and flour imports rose while rice and bean slightly decreased. This year’s average price per ton of grain was 661 USD for bean, 538 USD for rice, 395 USD for flour, and 304 USD for corn.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported nearly three times as much grain from China in August as last year, an expert said Thursday, an unusual increase that may suggest food shortages in the impoverished nation have worsened.

The North purchased 47,978 tons of corn, flour and rice in August, up from 16,723 tons in the same period of last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

“It is unusual that the North increased grain imports sharply in August ahead of the harvest season in fall,” Kwon said. “It is believed that the North increased imports as its grain stock is falling low.”

The North imported 216,535 tons of grain from China in the first eight months, a rise of 20 percent compared to the same period last year.

China is the North’s key ally, economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

North Korea suffered devastating floods in recent months that washed away tens of thousands of hectares of farmland, damage that is feared to threaten its already fragile food situation.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

Back in June 2011, Yonhap reported:

North Korea imported more than 50,000 tons of grains from its key ally China in May, an expert said Thursday, amid chronic food shortages in the North.

The North purchased 50,328 tons of corn, flour and rice in May, up 31.5 percent compared to the same period last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

The North also imported 114,300 tons of fertilizer from China in the first five months, a rise of 39 percent compared to the same period last year, Kwon said, citing figures from Seoul’s Korea International Trade Association.

China is the North’s last remaining ally, key economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

In March, the U.N. food agency appealed for 430,000 tons of food aid to feed 6 million vulnerable North Korean people, a quarter of the country’s population.

Washington sent its delegation to North Korea in May to assess the food situation, though no decision on food aid has been made yet.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

However, the outside aid has dwindled following the North’s missile and nuclear tests and other provocations.

There are basically two conflicting narratives being played out in the media in regards to this kind of news. The first narrative is that heavy seasonal floods and typhoon damage wiped out a large percentage of North Korea’s fall harvest and they are in desperate need of food assistance. The second narrative is that the DPRK is boosting food stocks in advance of 2012, the year the country is supposed to transition into a “Strong and Prosperous Country” (according to official propaganda). Since the DPRK’s appeal for large-scale food aid has gone largely ignored by the international community (despite the best efforts of organizations like the UNWFP and charities like Samaritan’s Purse), the country is forced to increase food stocks through international trade if it wants to live up to the expectations it has created among the domestic population.  Meeting these expectations is especially important right now as they will play an important role in facilitating the leadership  transition to Kim Jong-il’s designated successor, Kim Jong-un.

I have been posting stories about this year’s food shortage here (though neglected for a couple of weeks).

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea’s grain imports from China increase threefold
Yonhap
2011-9-29

N. Korea increases grain imports from China
Yonhap
2011-6-30

According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s trade dependence on China deepened over the past four years, in contrast to a reduction in South Korea’s share in the North’s external trade, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said in a report Sunday.

The proportion of China in North Korea’s foreign trade is on the rise, increasing from 41.6 percent in 2007 to 49.5 percent in 2008, 52.7 percent in 2009 and 57.1 percent last year, the report said.

By contrast, South Korea saw its share of the North’s trade declining from 38.0 percent in 2007 to 33.0 percent in 2009 to 31.4 percent last year, it noted.

In terms of trade volume, too, bilateral trade between North Korea and China jumped from US$1.97 billion in 2007 to $2.68 billion in 2009 and $3.47 billion in 2010, the report said, adding the inter-Korean trade volume slightly increased from $1.8 billion in 2007 to $1.91 billion last year.

I looked on the Ministry of Unification’s web page, but I was unable to find the report mentioned above.  It  has obviously not been published in English.

As this information was released in South Korea, the DPRK’s premier, Choe Yong-rim, is in China.  According to the Korea Times:

The North’s Premier Choe Yong-rim and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao “pledged to promote trade, investment and economic cooperation” between the nations during a meeting held on Monday night during Choe’s official visit to China, Xinhua news agency said.

“Under the context of the complicated regional and international situation, the parties, governments and peoples of China and the DPRK (North Korea)…made joint efforts to push forward bilateral ties,” Xinhua quoted Wen as telling Choe during the talks.

Wen hailed the North’s achievements in developing its economy and vowed that Beijing will continue to offer assistance within its capability, according to the report.

He then called on the two sides to speed up mutually beneficial cooperation in fields such as trade, investment, infrastructure, natural resources and agriculture, the report said.

Here is the Xinhua report.

Scott Snyder had some interesting comments on the DPRK-PRC trade relationship:

South Korea’s perceived failure to compete with China for economic influence in the North as a result of heightened tensions in inter-Korean relations remains an active subject of frustration in South Korea, especially among progressives, but North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear and missile tests and other tension-raising provocations against the South make it clear that China has been unable to use the North’s economic dependency on Beijing as a tool for imposing political restraint on Pyongyang.

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea deepens trade dependence on China
Yonhap
2011-9-25

Premiers of NK, China vow to boost economic cooperation
Korea Times
2011-9-27

Pictured above (Google Earth): Hyesan Youth Copper Mine.  See in Google Maps here.

According to Xinhua (China):

Hyesan-China Joint Venture Mineral Company, a large joint project between China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), started operation at Hyesan of Ryanggang province on Monday.

The mineral company was jointly set up by Wanxiang Resources Limited Company of China and the Ministry of Mining Industries of the DPRK on Nov. 1, 2007. Its main business was to produce and sell copper.

DPRK Mining Industries Minister Kang Min Chol and Chinese ambassador Liu Hongcai attended the opening ceremony.

Kim Chol, chairman of the people’s committee of the Ryanggang province, said at the ceremony that the joint venture was one of the symbols of the development of the DPRK-China friendship and would be a model of modernization, science and economic benefits.

Liu believed the company would make profits for both sides, benefit the two peoples and promote traditional China-DPRK friendship.

According to Reuters:

The mine was located a few miles from the Chinese city of Changbai in the northeastern province of Jilin and was 51 percent owned by Wanxiang, a source with direct knowledge of the project told Reuters on Tuesday.

The mine had a designed annual capacity of 50,000-70,000 tonnes of copper concentrate, expected to contain 20-30 percent copper, he added.

“All the concentrate will be sold to China,” the source said.

The source said the joint venture would conduct second-phase construction to expand the capacity of the mine if production ran smoothly, but did not give details on timing or expanded capacity.

China is the world’s top copper consumer but does not produce sufficient concentrate to meet demand. The country imported 3.4 million tonnes of copper concentrate in the first seven months of 2011, down 11 percent from a year earlier.

According to KCNA:

The Hyesan Youth Mine in Ryanggang Province was successfully updated as required by the new century.

The workers and technicians of the mine together with Chinese technicians and skilled workers completed the vast modernization project and successively ensured their commissioning.

The modernization of various production processes including mining, carriage and ore dressing made it possible to boost mineral production and thus contribute to economic development and the improvement of the standard of people’s living.

A ceremony for the completion of the modernization project at the Hyesan Youth Mine and the Hyesan-China Joint Venture Mineral Company was held on Monday.

Present there were Kang Min Chol, minister of Mining Industry, Kim Hi Thaek and officials concerned, Liu Hongcai, Chinese ambassador to the DPRK, and staff members of his embassy and Han Youhong, president of the Wanxiang Resources Co., Ltd. of China, and personages concerned.

Ri Mun Yong, manager of the Ryanggang Provincial Mining Complex, made an address to be followed by congratulatory and other speeches.

At the end of the ceremony, the participants went round production processes.

That day a reception was given in connection with the ceremony.

Although foreign investors and aid groups frequently build/ repair / upgrade North Korea’s state owned enterprises, it is rare that they are given any credit for their work in the official media.

Previous posts about the Hyesan Mine:
1. Poor electricity supply (2011-5-16)

3. Mine is flooded (2007-11-1)

4. China investing in mine (2007-4-12)

5. Chinese investing in mine (2006-12-24)

Additional mining information:
1. DPRK – China minerals for food program (2011-8-19)

2. DPRK looking to export rare earths (2011-7-23)

3. DPRK – China trade: 1995 – 2009 (2011-6-7)

4. Increase in DPRK’s mineral resources exports to China expected again for this year (2011-2-28)

5. DPRK – China mining deal (2011-2-6)

6. China expanding mining rights in DPRK (2010-1-15)

Pictured above in Wonsan: Possibly a new yacht (see more here)

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The North Korean regime has spent US$1.04 billion since 2008 importing luxury goods in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions.

According to data Grand National Party lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun obtained from the Foreign Ministry and other government agencies, the regime imported luxury goods worth $272.14 million in 2008, $322.53 million in 2009, and $446.17 million in 2010.

TVs, digital cameras, and video recorders made up the largest proportion, jumping from $115.47 million in 2008 to $215.95 million in 2010.

Luxury cars and parts came second and movie equipment such as film cameras and projectors third.

UN Security Council resolutions 1718 and 1874 ban exports of luxury goods and weapons of mass destruction to the North.

The amount the regime spent buying luxury goods was about 10 times the total humanitarian aid of $107.29 million it received from South Korea and the international community over the same period.

Read the full story here.

Additional information:
1. Back in July, there were several estimates of DPRK luxury goods imports based on Chinese data.

2. The DPRK maintains appx 200-300 foreign trade companies.

3. Office 38 is reportedly responsible for engaging in trade deals.

4. On the life of an overseas North Korean trade agent.

5. Here is an American Hummer parked at the Yangakdo Hotel.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

According to the Unification Ministry, 123 firms were operating in the industrial park as of July, with combined production output amounting to US$34.87 million in May, up 25 percent from $27.79 million year-on-year.

The total volume of inter-Korean trade through the industrial park reached $825.88 million in the first half of this year, up 19.5 percent from last year and a whopping 135.8 percent from 2009.

South Korean staff dwindled from 1,461 in 2008, when inter-Korean trade was at its height, to 801 in May this year, but the number of North Korean workers rose from 36,650 to 47,172. And some 3,700 more North Korean workers were hired even since May last year when the South banned new investments there after the North sank the Navy corvette Cheonon in March.

At the moment, the regime is unlikely to shut down the industrial park, since nearly 50,000 North Koreans are working there. But experts stress that the government should take the seizure of the properties in the resort as a warning and be prepared for anything that the regime could do.

“There’s nothing we can be sure of in inter-Korean relations,” said Dong Yong-seung, a researcher at the Samsung Economic Research Institute. “Risk factors always exist because the government launched the Kaesong project without providing any safety net to protect its people and properties, as in the case of the Mt. Kumgang tour project.”

South Korean investments in the industrial park amount to W920 billion (US$1=W1,079) — W540 billion invested by the 123 firms, and W380 billion from the government and public corporations to lay the infrastructure, including electricity and communications facilities, and landscaping.

If the regime shuts down the industrial park, the South would suffer double the losses it incurred from the regime’s seizure of the properties in Mt. Kumgang, which are worth W484.1 billion.

Read the full story here:
Kaesong Firms Worry as N.Korea Seizes Mt. Kumgang Assets
Choson Ilbo
2011-8-24

Pictured above (Google Earth): The Musan Mine, the DPRK’s largest.  See in Google Maps here.

According to the JoongAng Daily:

During his surprise May visit to China, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il secured free fertilizer and discounted food to help alleviate the impoverished country’s chronic food shortages.

A source in Beijing who monitors North Korea-China relations told the JoongAng Ilbo on Monday that Chinese officials agreed to provide 200,000 tons of fertilizer free of charge as well as 500,000 tons of corn at a discount in exchange for rights to North Korea’s abundant natural resources.

“When 200,000 tons of fertilizer is planted on North Korean soil, it can bring about a three-fold increase in the harvest,” the source said. “This can be the equivalent of giving 600,000 tons of food.”

The source added that China agreed to sell the 500,000 tons of corn for half of the international rate, which would be $30 per ton.

The corn, the source said, had already crossed the border into North Korea from northeastern China.

In exchange, Kim will allow China access to his country’s natural resources.

“The two parties agreed to participate in the extraction of buried rare earth minerals in Musan in Hamgyong Province,” the source said. “It’s quite a profit for China as it is thirsty for materials.”

North Korea is estimated to have around 20 million tons of rare earth minerals, which are vital in the production of high-tech goods.

The Beijing-based source said the agreement gives China the responsibility for the cost of building roads to transport the natural resources as well as lending equipment.

In exchange, North Korea will hand over 50 percent of the extracted rare earth minerals free of charge to China, with the rest to be sold to China at international market rates.

Meanwhile, other sources said that Kim also received a health checkup during his stay in China.

“When Kim Jong-il was visiting Yangzhou, he received a special examination from an oriental medicine doctor that the highest Chinese elite have gone to over the years,” a source familiar with North Korean issues said

The source added: “Kim Jong-il has never trusted China’s Western medicine. I heard from a Chinese official that Kim received an oriental medicine diagnosis by taking his pulse and that it did not involve drawing blood.”

Additional Information:

1. Here is a post linking to all the major DPRK food stories this year.

2. The media has reported on other DPRK food barter deals with Cambodia and Myanmar.

3. The role of the Musan Mine in DPRK-PRC relations has been quite interesting.  Here are previous posts on the mine.

Read the full story here:
North got fertilizer on Kim’s trip to China
JoongAng Daily
Chang Se-jeong
2011-8-19

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2011-8-11

Despite the current impasse in inter-Korean relations, the trade volume in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) continues to rise, up about 20 percent against last year.

According to the ROK Ministry of Unification, the inter-Korean trade via Kaesong totaled 825.88 million USD in the first six months of 2011. In comparison to last year’s 691.09 million USD, this is a 19.5 percent increase (134.795 million USD) and a whopping 135.8 percent climb (475.64 million USD) from 2009.

The total import reached 444.98 million USD, up 36.4 percent from last year. The total export recorded 389 million USD, a slight increase of 4.3 percent.

As of June 2011, there are about 123 companies reported to be in Kaesong. A total of 560 South Korean staffs work in the KIC, 155 of which joined since June of last year. There was also a boost in the number of North Korean workers; 3,161 new workers joined the complex from the year before, making the current number of North Korean employees 47,172.

In comparison, both commercial trade including general trade (mineral and agricultural products) and noncommercial trade such as humanitarian assistance and socio-cultural exchanges dwindled 16.2 percent (161.34 million USD) from the previous year.

The figure suggests the plunge was triggered by the sanctions imposed by the South Korean government on North Korea since May 24 of last year — a response to North Korea’s deadly provocation in March 2010 — cutting off most of the humanitarian assistance and exchanges. According to the ministry of unification, before the sanctions went into effect, general trade that comprised 30 percent fell below 1 percent and humanitarian assistance became nonexistent.

According to a recent survey conducted in the complex, economic loss engendered by the May 24 sanctions are estimated to be 3.875 billion USD. Out of the 154 total economic cooperation and trade firms in Kaesong, 104 claimed to have suffered economically, totaling over 430 million USD in losses.

The survey was conducted from January 24 to March 25 with 154 firms: 79.2 percent indicated the recent sanctions have significantly impacted their businesses; 3.2 percent answered “a little” effect; none answered “no effect at all.”

Moreover, 78.6 percent responded that the sanctions led to interruption in business operations and 12.3 percent replied that the sanctions resulted in complete shutdown.

In addition, reduction of staffs was also linked to the sanctions, in which 34.4 percent reported to have downsized by 20 percent, while 26.7 percent reported 30 to 40 percent cut backs in the number of staff.