North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE 4 (2011-9-9): The statue appears to no longer be under wraps.  It was covered up apparently to protect it from nearby construction debris. Read more here.

UPDATE 3 (2011-6-30): According to images on display at the 2011 Pyongyang Architecture Exhibition, the Mansudae Grand Monument appears to keep its basic structure after the renovations are completed.  So this raises the question of what exactly they are doing to the statue…

Pictured above are architectural  and satellite imagery of Pyongyang’s  Mansudae area, currently under renovation.

UPDATE 2 (2011-6-8): According to the Pyongyang Times, the North Koreans are building “a monumental structure in the area in central Pyongyang where the statue of President Kim Il Sung stands”.

UPDATE 1 (2011-6-5): We have some pictures of the monument renovation:

Pictured above we can see a recent photo of the Kim Il-sung statue at the Mansudae Grand Monument.  It is covered in a white sheet (or plaster?).  There is some scaffolding around the lower half of the statue and a crane overhead.

The surrounding neighborhood is also being renovated.

ORIGINAL POST (2011-6-1):

Pictured above (Google Earth): The Kim Il-sung statue on Mansu Hill, Pyongyang

A recent visitor to the DPRK emailed me to say that the Mansudae Grand Monument has been covered up and will be closed to visitors until next March.  It appears they are renovating the national icon for Kim Il-sung’s 100th birthday next year.

I am unsure if just the Kim Il-sung statue is covered or if the entire monument is under wraps.

An undertaking this prestigious would have to be approved at “the highest level”.

Construction of the Tower of the Juche Idea was similarly shrouded in secrecy until it was unveiled to Kim Il-sung in 1982 to commemorate his 70th birthday.

Projects like this are conducted by a special division of the Mansudae Art Studio located in Phyongchon District, Pyongyang.

The Pyongyang residential neighborhood to the south of the monument is also being renovated.

If you plan on visiting the DPRK in the near future, please try and get a picture!

International Federation of the Red Cross
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea MAAKP002
30 April 2011

Download PDF here.

The IFRC supports the DPRK Red Cross in four areas: health and care, water and sanitation, disaster management, and organizational development. The provision of essential drugs to 2,030 clinics nationwide remains the largest component of Federation support. At the same time, the health and care programme has successfully piloted the community-based health and first aid (CBHFA) programme in two counties. Within the water and sanitation programme, the ongoing construction of 19 water and sanitation systems will bring the total number of people supplied with clean drinking water in the past ten years to over 600,000.

Western Aid: The Missing Link for North Korea’s Economic Revival?
AEI Working Paper
Nicholas Eberstadt

Download PDF here.

[T]his past January, for the first time in over two decades, Pyongyang has formally unveiled a new multi-year economic plan: a 10-year “strategy plan for economic development” under a newly formed State General Bureau for Economic Development. The new economic plan is intended not only to meet the DPRK’s longstanding objective of becoming a “powerful and prosperous country” [Kangsong Taeguk] by 2012 (the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung), but also to promote North Korea to the ranks of the “advanced countries in 2020.”

Details on the new 10-year economic plan are as yet sketchy. South Korean analysts report that the plan envisions massive amounts of new investment in North Korea: up to $100 billion, by some accounts.3 But even if the investment target is more modest than such rumors suggest, North Korea will be counting on more than just domestic capital accumulation to secure this funding. It will have to rely upon major inflows of both foreign private capital–and foreign aid.

*Both reports have been added to the DPRK Economic Statistics Page.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 11-02-08
2011-02-08

In last month’s New Year’s Joint Editorial, North Korean authorities reaffirmed the national drive to strongly develop the country’s light industrial sector by 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung. On February 2, the Choson Sinbo, the newspaper of the pro-North Korean residents’ league in Japan, proclaimed that all efforts were being focused on delivering high-quality light industrial goods by April of next year.

North Korea’s minister of light industry, forty-seven year old Hu Chul San, was interviewed by the paper’s Kook Jang Eun. Hu stated that light industrial zones already in operation would be further bolstered and the provision of raw materials would be prioritized for celebrations surrounding the 100-year birthday of the country’s founder.

The North Korean regime has set 2012 as the year in which it will “open the doors to a great and prosperous nation,” and Kim Il Sung’s April 15 birthdate has been set as the first target for economic revival. Just as in 2010, this year’s Joint Editorial called for light industrial growth and improvements in the lives of the North Korean people as the ‘strong and prosperous nation’ goal is pursued.

Minister Hu gave one example of the expected boost in production, stating that all students, from elementary school to university, would receive new school uniforms by next April. “Originally, school uniforms were issued to all students once every three years, but as the nation’s economic situation grew more difficult, [the regime] was unable to meet the demand.” He promised that for the 100-year anniversary, “Rationing would take place as it did when the Great Leader was here.”

The minister also explained that all preparations for distributing light industrial goods to the people next April needed to be completed by the end of this year, since Kim Il Sung’s birthday fell so early in the spring. He stated that a strong base had already been established for the production of high-quality goods, and that many organizations had already mass-produced high-quality goods for the celebration of the 65th anniversary of the Korean Workers’ Party founding last year, offering the Pyongyang Sock Factory, the Sinuiju Textile Mill, the Botong River Shoe Factory, and the Pyongyang Textile Mill as examples.

When asked how North Korea would resolve raw material shortages, the minister explained that since the February 8 Vinalon Complex began operations last year, Vinalon and several other types of synthetic materials were available. The Sunchon Chemical Complex and other industries were also providing synthetic materials to light industrial factories throughout the country, strongly supporting indigenous efforts to increase production. He added, “Raw rubber, fuel and other materials absent from our country must be imported,” but that “national policies were being implemented” to ensure steady supply.

Minister Hu admitted that there was no shortage of difficulties, but that every worker was aware of the importance of meeting the April deadline, and that because raw material shortages were being resolved, light industries were now able to press ahead with full-speed production.

According to the Joongang Daily:

North Korea’s leadership wants “renovations” of its capital city of Pyongyang, a South Korean government source said yesterday, and much of the so-called renovations will reflect the rising power of the military.

The source said that leader Kim Jong-il and heir-apparent Kim Jong-un had given orders to hand the Ministry of Capital City Construction Development over to the military.

The source also said military men took over key positions in the ministry.

The modernization of the capital is a long-term project that began in 2001. The Ministry of Capital City Construction Development was included in the cabinet in that year.

In 2006, Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law Jang Song-thaek, often called the second-most powerful man in North Korea, took charge of the ministry.

It is unclear, however, whether Jang will continue to head the ministry after the military takes over.

The change is being seen as part of North Korea’s often stated goal of becoming a “strong and prosperous country” by 2012.

That will also include improving Pyongyang and the economy as a whole, with the military controlling much of the activity.

Temporary youth brigades were mobilized last September to help with construction throughout the country. They were assigned to military brigades as regular soldiers.

North Korea analysts have said that the change in the ministry was for “mobilization and stronger control.”

“North Korea has recently stopped calling laborers and farmers the ‘leaders of the revolution,’ and said the soldiers are,” said Jung Chang-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Kookmin University in Seoul.

“Assigning civilian groups to the military means that the leadership aims to mobilize the people and gain effective control to create a strong and prosperous country by next year,” Jung added.

Kim Jong-il said in October 1996, during a speech honoring the 50th anniversary of Kim Il Sung University: “Only the military can be trusted.”

Kim’s reliance on the military and the mobilization of civilians into the military reflects his songun, or “military-first,” ideology.

The moves also aim to solidify Kim Jong-un as the next leader of North Korea, with his name on the orders along with his father’s. If the projects improve people’s lives, the positive results can be attributed to Kim Jong-un, said Lee Jo-won, professor of political science at Chung-Ang University in Seoul.

The number of facilities in Pyongyang that have been renovated over the past 10 years are too numerous to mention here.  Most showcase factories, schools, theaters and restaurants have been renovated.  Some more than once.

Additionally, the North Korean government has sought to boost the quantity of housing in the city.  A high-profile project near the Potonggang Gate has already been completed, and labor units are busy trying to complete 100,000 new housing units by next February.

Here are previous posts on: Real estate and Construction.

Read the full story below:
Kims want to ‘renovate’ Pyongyang for people
Joongang Daily
Jeong Yong-soo
2/9/2011

According to Yonhap:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il conducted the largest number of public activities last year since he inherited the communist country from his father in 1994, according to figures aggregated by the South Korean government.

The 68-year-old appeared in North Korea’s official media a total of 161 times, the Unification Ministry said Tuesday in a release that suggested Kim was trying to tamp down outside speculation over his health. About one fifth of his activities last year were joined by his third son and heir-apparent Kim Jong-un, the ministry said.

Kim Jong-il reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008, a year during which he showed up only 97 times. Kim appeared in official media 159 times in 2009, increasing his visits to factories and other economy-related facilities. Last year, he made 63 visits to economic sites and 38 to military ones, the ministry said.

“He seems to be trying to unite the regime by showing both internally and externally that he remains healthy and that he is focused on enhancing the living standards of people,” a ministry official said, asking not to be named.

North Korea is trying to revive its economy ahead of 2012, which marks the centennial of the birth of Kim Il-sung, who founded the country and later passed his power to Kim Jong-il upon his death.

Outside analysts say the heavy focus on the economy is aimed at creating a setting favorable for another hereditary power succession, this time, to Kim Jong-un, believed to be about 28.

North Korea’s media have yet to report on Kim Jong-il’s first public activity this year.

Read the full story here:
N. Korean leader most active last year despite health woes
Yonhap
Sam Kim
1/4/2011

According to the Daily NK:

In advance of the new year, 2011, the North Korean authorities have released lecture materials to emphasize “Kim Jong Eun’s leadership.” It implies that they are going to make 2011 the year of Kim Jong Eun, though without the label of “successor.”

A source from Yangkang Province reported on Monday on “a lecture entitled, ‘In the New Year under comrade Kim Jong Eun’s leadership the whole people should be united impregnably around the Party and open the gate of 2012 as a strong and prosperous state.’ It has been spread to each organ and enterprise.”

The source added, “The secretary of the party cell reported that this material was handed down and said the party is going to hold a lecture around the 30th. He stressed that we definitely must attend the lecture.”

Since the North’s authorities announced publicly the Kim Jong Eun succession through the Delegates’ Conference of the Chosun Workers’ Party and on the founding day of the Party, they have been speeding up the process of the succession through releasing Kim Jong Eun’s public activities such as military or security related on-site inspections with his father through the state publications and orders handed down from Kim Jong Eun.

The source reported the mood there, saying that, “Even though the authorities have been clamoring for decades to ‘Protect the Suryeong (Absolute Leader) to the Death,’ there are still many citizens who don’t attend lectures. When they do go to the lectures, they think it is a time napping.”

He went on, “Nowadays as food prices and other prices are soaring, people say that it’s hard to live or they aren’t sure about the propaganda.”

The source construed the attempt to hold lectures about Kim Jong Eun’s leadership likely to be a countermeasure to eliminate people’s discontent with Kim Jong Eun.

Read the full story here:
Lecture Scheduled on Kim Jong Eun’s Leadership
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
12/27/2010

On December 2, KCNA announced that Kim Jong-il visited the port in Tanchon County, South Hamgyong County (40.412522°, 128.917731°) where he gave guidance on the port’s reconstruction.

Judging by the satellite imagery of the area on Google Earth, it appears that the project had already begun by May 13, 2009, where we can see concrete blocks ready to be used to extend the jettys (breakwaters).  I have outlined the proposed port project on Google Earth imagery below and provided a picture of the completed project from KCTV:

After the jettys are extended, the major construction work and dredging can begin.  Below are images of the port’s main construction site as it appears on Google Earth and a prediction of the project’s conclusion from KCNA:

It appears from the picture that the port will be connected to the railway system—likely via the nearby Tanchon Smeltery and Magnesia Plant (both recently renovated) whose products will probably be exported from the port.

Tanchon is also home to the DPRK’s Komdok and Taehung Youth Hero Mines (among others).  As is well known to readers, raw materials exports are the DPRK’s most significant (legal and transparent) source of hard currency.  According to Yonhap’s North Korea Handbook 2002:

Geomdeok [Komdok] Mine is a special company in Bonsan-dong, Dancheon, South Hamgyeon Province, and is very famous for about 300 million tons of deposited leads and zincs. This mine annually produces 52,000 tons of lead, 124,000 tons of zinc, both of which account for 47% of total production in North Korea, and more than twice as much as the production of Eunpa Mine, North Korea’s second largest mine, in Eunpa-gun North Hwanghae Province. Concentrates of lead and zinc produced from Geomdeok Mine are processed into electric zinc at Dancheon refinery. Opened in 1932, this mine produces 14,200 tons of raw ore annually with three ore dressing plants. Annual production capacity can reach up to 11 million tons. The first dressing plant was completed in July 1953, near the end of the Korean War. It now processes a million tons of ore a year. The second dressing plant was opened with a production capacity of 3,200 tons of ore. The third one constructed in September 1983 can process 10 million tons of ore.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-11-30
11/30/2010

North Korea has recently revised the Pyongyang City Management Law in order to support ongoing modernization efforts by increasing the management and operational authority of the Cabinet and of the State Planning Committee. On October 21, the Cabinet newspaper ‘Minju Chosun’ ran an article emphasizing the need to ensure that necessary capital and supplies were guaranteed for the construction of 100,000 new residences in Pyongyang and now it appears the North is backing up this modernization drive with the law.

The legal code was revised in accordance with Order No. 743, passed down by the standing committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly on March 30 of this year, but was just recently made public in South Korea. What stands out in this newly revised law is that the central government has strengthened its hold on management and operations within the city.

Article 47 of the city management law states, “The Cabinet must naturally take control of and supervise Pyongyang management operations,” and Article 48 stipulates that the State Planning Committee and the Pyongyang People’s Committee establish and strictly follow detailed plans for each sector of management operations within the capital city. Article 47, of the former law (enacted on 26 Nov. 1998), which covered management projects within Pyongyang, was removed while five new articles were added. Article 17 covers housing construction, Article 27 covers management of street lighting, Article 43 covers the delivery of publications, Article 46 stipulates basic working conditions, and Article 51 guarantees that goods will be produced for Pyongyang markets.

Article 17 stipulates that “the construction of housing must completely guaranteed,” and Article 51 states that planning for and production of commercial goods for Pyongyang must be ensured “without fail.” Housing, goods, electricity, capital and other necessities for the modernization of Pyongyang have now been essentially legally guaranteed. New housing in the capital has been a priority for the North, with construction already underway and plans for 30,000 additional units next year and 35,000 more in 2012. In order to show off these new renovations day and night, Article 27 calls for the “logical installation of street lights” to brighten walkways, roads, and national monuments. The new legal revision appears to be yet another step toward shoring up the framework for establishment of a ‘Strong and Prosperous Nation’ and transition of power to yet a third generation of Kims.

The new law reinforces Pyongyang’s centrality in North Korea’s revolutionary ambitions, referring to the capital as “the home of Juche,” “the heart of the Korean people,” and “the face of the nation.”

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The North Korean regime is enacting sweeping changes to the law to bolster state control. A source familiar with North Korean affairs on Tuesday said four North Korean laws covering economic planning were revised in April and laws governing management of Pyongyang were revised in March.

The revised laws, which the source claims to have seen, “show the central regime’s intention to control everything, from the economy to the daily lives of the people.” North Korea has changed or enacted at least 17 different laws since November last year, just before a botched currency reform.

The revised economic planning law deletes a phrase in Article 17, which stipulated that the economy is planned “in line with methods that are presented from lower levels.” According to the source, the regime inserted the phrase when it announced timid economic reforms in July 2001 in order to give more authority over production to individual factories and businesses. “The deletion of the phrase demonstrates the intention to retrieve that authority,” the source said.

Instead, the terms “provisional figures” and “control figures” were revived after their omission in 2001. “The term ‘provisional figures’ refers to the potential output each factory sets, while ‘control figures’ represent the actual output amount assessed by the central government,” the source said. “So the terms strengthen the centralized economic planning regulations of the past.”

In Article 27, a new clause was inserted which reads, “The planning of the people’s economy is a legal task.” The source said, “This means that the partial freedom given to individual factories over production has now been taken away completely.”

The law on the management of Pyongyang, which was revised on March 30, also stresses the role of the state. Originally, maintenance and management of the capital were up to the Pyongyang City People’s Committee. But under the revision it falls into the hands of the State Planning Committee and the Cabinet. Also, all Pyongyang residents over the age of 17 have been ordered to carry their resident identification cards at all times.

Also added were articles that bind the central government to guarantee housing and the supply of necessities for the residents of Pyongyang. This shows the clear intention of the regime to take charge of housing and goods supply. “Labor and commercial laws also contain clear intentions to bolster government control,” the source said.

Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University, said as conditions worsened after the failed currency reform and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s son has been lined up to succeed his father, “the regime seems to feel that tighter internal control is better than aggressive reform. Even if North Korea is looking to partially open up through economic cooperation with China, this will be difficult to achieve with such a conservative approach.”

The Donga Ilbo also covered the story.

Read the full story here:
N.Korea Reverts to Hardline State Control
Choson Ilbo
11/17/2010

Tania Branigan visited Pyongyang for The Guardian and wrote a long article on North Korean culture.  Most of the information is familiar to long-time DPRK watchers, though there were a few nuggets of information I had not heard before.  I have posted these below:

But who knew that The Da Vinci Code was a hit in this strictly controlled city? That Céline Dion is a karaoke favourite? Or that the mass performances are not only a tribute to the leadership and motherland, but the way that many young people find partners?

…

Few foreigners see this city at all. Around 2,000 western tourists visited last year, plus perhaps 10 times as many Chinese visitors. The expatriate population, excluding Chinese and Russian diplomats, and including children, stands at 150.

…

There are certainly signs of change here: Air Koryo has new planes and three gleaming airport buses to ferry passengers from runway to terminal. Last week a vast new theatre opened, as did an apartment complex, although it may be destined for officials. The 105-storey Ryugyong hotel – more than two decades in construction – is finally glass-sheathed and due to open in 2012. That year will mark the 100th birthday of the country’s founder, Kim Il-sung. But it is hard to see how it can achieve its pledge to become “a great, powerful and prosperous nation” by then – even given the Stakhanovite industrial efforts lauded in its newspapers.

…

Pyongyang is lucky: no one is plump, but nor is there noticeable emaciation. Dr Andrei Lankov, associate professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, says the official income in Pyongyang is around 3,000 won a month, but many have ways of making money on the side and – unlike other North Koreans – its residents receive subsistence food rations. Most top those up at markets that are legal though never formally acknowledged (officials insist that “everything is public”). At the turn of the year, the government embarked on currency reforms to eradicate an increasingly independent group of “kiosk capitalists”. But wiping out hard-won savings caused highly unusual public discontent and even, reportedly, unrest.

You can read the full article here:
The cultural life of North Korea
The Guardian
Tania Branigan
10/15/2010