Archive for the ‘UN Security Council’ Category

DPRK forges trade documents to dodge sanctions

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

According to the AFP:

North Korea is forging trade documents and changing the names of its trading firms to try to dodge international sanctions, a Seoul intelligence official and a media report said Wednesday.

Pyongyang changed the name of the Korea Mining and Development Corp to Kapmun Tosong Trade after the UN Security Council blacklisted the firm following the North’s missile test in April 2009, Dong-A Ilbo newspaper reported.

The communist state also renamed weapons trader Tangun Trade as Chasongdang Trade when the company was put on the sanctions list after the North’s second nuclear test in May 2009.

The tests prompted the Security Council to impose tougher sanctions targeting Pyongyang’s weapons exports and blacklisting companies suspected of such dealings.

The sanctions also called on UN member states to inspect ships and planes suspected of carrying banned cargo to or from the North.

Since then, the North has mostly used China to transport its arms exports, Dong-A said.

It had forged trade invoices on military products, for instance by labelling torpedoes as fish processing equipment and anti-tank rockets as oil boring machinery, the paper added.

A spokesman for Seoul’s National Intelligence Service confirmed the report but declined to give details.

“Intelligence authorities in South Korea and the United States are trying to crack down on the North’s forging of company names and export invoices, but it is becoming increasingly difficult since the North keeps coming up with new schemes,” the paper quoted one South Korean official as saying.

The impoverished North faces multiple sanctions imposed by the UN and the United States and targeting its illegal trade in arms, drugs and luxury goods.

The US Treasury Department announced Monday it was imposing sanctions on four people and eight organisations accused of aiding the communist government through illicit trade.

Of course these games are nothing new. About this time last year DPRK sanctions enforcement was in the news.  Marcus Noland referred to the task as “Whac-a-mole”.

Read the full stories here:
N.Korea forges trade documents to dodge sanctions
AFP
9/1/2010

N. Korea Fakes Trade Documents to Export WMDs 
Donga Ilbo
9/1/2010

Share

UN report explains sanctions decisions

Friday, August 6th, 2010

According to the Daily NK:

The 1718 Committee of the UN Security Council has published the final version of its “Report to the Security Council from the Panel of Experts established Pursuant to Resolution 1874,”

In the report, of which the Daily NK has obtained a copy, the 1718 Committee revealed North Korean overseas accounts which had likely been used for North Korea’s illicit activities such as conventional weapons transactions and luxury goods, and the names of entities and individuals involved in those activities. The lists were submitted by UN member states.

The report singles out 17 North Korean officials thought likely to violate UN Resolutions 1718 and 1874, and outlines the reasons why they were designated by the UN member states.

They are Jang Sung Taek, Vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission and the closest associate of Kim Jong Il, Vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission Oh Keuk Ryul, Kim Young Chun, the Minister for the People’s Armed Forces, Director of No. 39 Department Kim Dong Woon, Military Supplies Secretary in the Central Committee of the Party Jeon Byung Ho, former Yongbyon technical director Jeon Chi Bu, First Vice-director of the Ministry of the Munitions Industry Chu Kyu Chang, Standing Vice-director of the People’s Army’s General Political Department Hyun Cheul Hae, President of the Tanchon Commercial Bank Kim Dong Myung, Member of the National Defence Commission Baek Se Bong, Deputy Director of the General Political Department of the People’s Armed Forces Park Jae Kyung, President of the Academy of Science Byeon Youong Rip, Director of the General Bureau of Atomic Energy Ryeom Young, Head of the Department of Nuclear Physics of Kim Il Sung University Seo Sang Il, President of Kohas AG Jacop Steiger and Alex H.T. Tsai, who is known to have provided financial, technological and other support for KOMID, and his wife, Su Lu-chi.

It also released a list of autonomous designations provided by member states, covering 19 North Korean entities. That list was made based on information collected as of April 30th this year.

They are Amroggang Development Banking Corporation, Global Interface Company Inc., Hesong Trading Corporation, Korea Complex Equipment Import Corporation, Kohas AG, Korea International Chemical Joint Venture Company, Korea Kwangson Banking Corp, Korea Kwangsong Trading Corporation, Korea Pugang Trading Corporation, Korea Pugang Mining and Machinery Corporation ltd., Korea Ryongwang Trading Corporation, Korea Ryonha Machinery Joint Venture Corporation, Korea Tonghae Shipping Company, Ponghwa Hospital, Pyongyang Informatics Centre, Sobaeku United Corp., Tosong Technology Trading Corporation, Trans Merits Co. Ltd., and Yongbyon Nuclear Research Centre.

13 out of the 19 have direct or indirect links to Tanchon Commercial Bank and Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation (KOMID).

Amroggang Development Banking Corporation is the financial arm of KOMID and related to Tanchon Commercial Bank, which has also been designated by the 1718 Committee. Additionally, Global Interface Company Inc. is owned by Alex Tsai, who is thought to have provided, or attempted to provide, support to KOMID.

Sobaeku United Corp. is involved in activities related to natural graphite, producing graphite blocks that can be used in missiles.

The report points out, “North Korea has established a highly sophisticated international network for the acquisition, marketing and sale of arms and military equipment, and arms exports have become one of the country’s principal sources for obtaining foreign exchange,” and goes on to say, “Agencies under the National Defense Commission (NDC), the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) and the Korean People’s Army (KPA) are most active in this regard.”

The report explains, “The Second Economic Committee of the National Defense Commission plays the largest and most prominent role in nuclear, other WMD and missile-related development programs as well as in arranging and conducting arms-related exports.”

It adds, “The General Bureau of Surveillance of the Korean People’s Army is involved in the production and sale of conventional armaments.”

The report points out that North Korea has opened 39 accounts with 18 overseas banks in 14 countries. 17 of which are held with Chinese banks.

Besides China, 11 banks in eight European and former Soviet countries (Russia, Switzerland, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Italy, German, Belarus and Kazakhstan) hold 18 North Korean accounts. There is one account in Malaysia.

“The DPRK also employs a broad range of techniques to mask its financial transactions, including the use of overseas entities, shell companies, informal transfer mechanisms, cash couriers and barter arrangements,” the report notes.

According to experts on North Korea, since North Korean overseas illegal activities are all led by the loyal group surrounding Kim Jong Il, U.S. financial sanctions in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions 1817 and 1874 and also U.S. Executive Order (E.O.) 13382 have the potential to be a great pressure on the Kim Jong Il regime.

The Panel of Experts, which was appointed by the UN Secretary-General on 12 August 2009 to author the report, are David J. Birch (United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, coordinator), Masahiko Asada (Japan), Victor D. Comras (United States of America), Erik Marzolf (France), Young Wan Song (Republic of Korea), Alexander Vilnin (Russian Federation), and Xiaodong Xue (People’s Republic of China).

Read the full story here:
Report Explains Sanctions Decisions
Daily NK
Kim Yong Hun
8/6/2010

Share

DPRK’s Arms Exports Stay Steady

Thursday, August 5th, 2010

According to the Daily NK:

Despite the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1874 in June, 2009, North Korea’s weapons exports last year earned the country approximately the same amount as they have since Resolution 1718 was passed in 2006.

Song Young Sun, a lawmaker sitting on the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly, told reporters on Wednesday, “South Korea’s intelligence organizations have obtained a figure of around $50 million, and they assume that in practice the North has exported much more than that.”

Intelligence authorities apparently believe that the reason is that North Korea has exported parts and supported foreign munitions factories in other ways, rather than exporting finished weapons.

In September of last year, a Georgian cargo plane containing 35 tons of weapons parts including those for the Taepo-dong 2 was intercepted in Bangkok. Two months later, a ship heading for Congo was also revealed by South Africa to contain parts of the T-54 and T-55, North Korean tanks based on Soviet designs.

Meanwhile, the most successful period for the sanctions regime was immediately after UN Resolution 1718 was imposed on North Korea in 2006, when North Korean exports are estimated to have been reduced to $30 million, just 1/7th of the previous year’s total.

Read the full story here:
North Korea’s Arms Exports Stay Steady
Daily NK
Kim Min Su
8/5/2010

Share

Luxembourg to track DPRK bank accounts

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

According to the Choson Ilbo:

Luxembourg has promised to cooperate with UN and U.S. financial sanctions against North Korea, Radio Free Asia reported Wednesday.

A spokesman for Luxembourg’s Finance Ministry told RFA that the country is closely watching for any illegal activities by the North using offshore accounts and will take “appropriate legal steps” if it finds them.

He claimed Luxembourg regularly updates domestic laws in accordance with international norms to monitor and punish those involved in illegal activities.

The country is committed to implementing sanctions against the North under UN Security Council Resolution 1874, he added.

In March, the Daily Telegraph said North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has a US$4 billion slush fund stashed away abroad in case he has to flee the North. Kim’s operatives “withdrew the money — in cash, in order not to leave a paper trail — and transferred it to banks in Luxembourg,” it said.

But at the time, the office of the grand duchy’s prime minister said it had no information about North Korean financial assets and there was no need to check. Although Luxembourg is a member of the EU, it is not easy to keep track of bank accounts there because it has a different bank payment and settlement system from other members.

On July 22, Hong Kong started a legal review of Taepung International Investment Group, a North Korean firm founded to attract foreign capital, and other North Korean companies.

Open Radio for North Korea on Wednesday quoted a North Korean source as saying the country’s former ambassador to Switzerland Ri Chol returned to the North in March to make sure Kim Jong-il’s secret accounts overseas are safely handed over to Kim Jong-un, his son and heir apparent.

Read the full story here:
Luxembourg to Help Track N.Korean Bank Accounts
Choson Ilbo
7/29/2010

Share

Burma-North Korea Ties: Escalating Over Two Decades

Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

According to the Irrawaddy:

A recent New York Times op-ed article by Aung Lynn Htut, formerly a high-ranking Burmese military intelligence officer who defected in 2005 while he served as an attaché at the Burmese embassy in Washington, shed new light on the history of the still murky relationship between Burma and North Korea, two of the world’s most isolated, secretive and oppressive regimes.

Burma broke diplomatic relations with North Korea in 1983, when North Korean agents attempted to assassinate the South Korean president on Burmese soil. But according to Aung Lynn Htut, shortly after current junta-chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe assumed power in 1992, he surreptitiously moved to renew ties with Pyongyang.

“Than Shwe secretly made contact with Pyongyang. Posing as South Korean businessmen, North Korean weapon experts began arriving in Burma. I remember these visitors. They were given special treatment at the Rangoon airport,” Aung Lynn Htut said in his June 18 article.

The junta kept its renewed ties with North Korea secret for more than a decade because it was working to establish relationships with Japanese and South Korean businesses, Aung Lynn Htut said. By 2006, however, “the junta’s generals felt either desperate or confident enough to publicly resume diplomatic relations with North Korea.” 

In November 2008, the junta’s No 3, Gen Shwe Mann, visited North Korea and signed a memorandum of understanding, officially formalizing military cooperation between Burma and North Korea. Photographs showed him touring secret tunnel complexes built into the sides of mountains thought to store and protect jet aircraft, missiles, tanks and nuclear and chemical weapons.

According to Aung Lynn Htut, Lt-Gen Tin Aye, the No.5 in the Burma armed forces and the chief of Military Ordnance, is now the main liaison in the relationship with Pyongyang. Tin Aye has often traveled to North Korea as well as attended ceremonies at the North Korean embassy in Rangoon.

In September 2009, The New Light of Myanmar reported that Tin Aye went to the anniversary celebration of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), held in a hotel in Rangoon. In February, Tin Aye, along with other senior officials, attended the birthday event of the Dear Leader of North Korea at the embassy.

Flights and ships from North Korea to Burma have been carrying more than just Burmese generals. Analysts, including Burma military expert Andrew Selth, say that for years Burma and North Korea have used a barter system whereby Burma exchanges primary products for North Korean military technologies.

In June 2009, a North Korean ship, the Kang Nam I, was diverted from going to Burma after being trailed by the US navy. Then in April, another North Korean ship, the Chong Gen, docked in Burma carrying suspicious cargo, allegedly in violation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1874, which restricts North Korea from arms deals and from trading in technology that could be used for nuclear weapons.

In May, the seven-member UN panel monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea said in a report that Pyongyang is involved in banned nuclear and ballistic activities in Iran, Syria and Burma with the aid of front companies around the world.

According to the UN report, a North Korean company, Namchongang Trading, which is known to be associated with illicit procurement for Burma’s nuclear and military program and is on the US sanctions list, was involved in suspicious activities in Burma.

The report also noted three individuals were arrested in Japan in 2009 for attempting to illegally export a magnetometer—a dual-use instrument that can be employed in making missile control system magnets and gas centrifuge magnets—to Burma via Malaysia allegedly under the direction of another company known to be associated with illicit procurement for North Korea’s nuclear and military programs.

The UN experts also said that the Korea Kwangson Banking Corporation has handled several transactions involving millions of dollars directly related to deals between Burma and the Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation.
 
With this string of events and the suspicions surrounding them as a dramatic lead in, on June 4, Al Jazeera aired a news documentary prepared by the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) which was written by Robert Kelley, a nuclear scientist and former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The DVB report claimed that the ruling military junta in Burma is “mining uranium, converting it to uranium compounds for reactors and bombs, and is trying to build a reactor and/or an enrichment plant that could only be useful for a bomb.”

The IAEA wrote to Burma’s agency representative, Tin Win, on June 14 and asked whether the information provided in the DVB report was true. Burma, which is a member of the IAEA, a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and a signatory to the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, responded with a letter stating that the DVB report allegations are “groundless and unfounded.”

“No activity related to uranium conversion, enrichment, reactor construction or operation has been carried out in the past, is ongoing or is planned for the future in Myanmar [Burma],” the letter said.

The letter also noted that Burma is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the agency’s so-called safeguards agreement. “As stated in the safeguards agreement, Myanmar will notify the agency if it plans to carry out any nuclear activities,” the letter said.

The regime, however, has not signed the IAEA’s Additional Protocol, meaning that the agency has no power to set up an inspection of Burma’s nuclear facilities under the existing mechanism known as the Small Quantities Protocol.

Previously, on June 11, Burma’s state radio and television news had reported the Foreign Ministry’s denial of the allegations in the DVB report. The denial claimed that anti-government groups in collusion with the media had launched the allegations with the goal of “hindering Burma’s democratic process and to tarnish the political image of the government.”

The Foreign Ministry denial also addressed Nyapyidaw’s relationship with Pyongyang. “Following the re-establishment of diplomatic relations, Myanmar [Burma] and the DPRK, as independent sovereign states, have been engaging in promoting trade and cooperation between the two countries in the same way Myanmar is dealing with others,” the ministry said in its statement.

The regime did acknowledge that the Chong Gen docked at Thilawa Port near Rangoon in April. But the statement said the North Korean vessel was involved in importing cement from North Korea and exporting rice from Burma.

But in an article for Asia Times online, Burma analyst Bertil Linter noted that, “if carrying only innocuous civilian goods, as the statement maintains, there would seemingly have been no reason for authorities to cut electricity around the area when the Chong Gen, a North Korean ship flying the Mongolian flag of convenience, docked on the outskirts of Yangon.”

“According to intelligence sources, security was tight as military personnel offloaded heavy material, including Korean-made air defense radars. The ship left the port with a return cargo of rice and sugar, which could mean that it was, at least in part, a barter deal. On January 31 this year, another North Korean ship, the Yang M V Han A, reportedly delivered missile components also at Yangon’s Thilawa port,” Linter said.

Strategypage.com, a military affairs website covering armed forces worldwide, said, “Indications are that the North Korean ship that delivered a mysterious cargo four months ago, was carrying air defense radars (which are now being placed on hills up north) and ballistic missile manufacturing equipment. Dozens of North Korean technicians have entered the country in the last few months, and have been seen working at a military facility outside Mandalay. It’s unclear what this is for. Burma has no external enemies, and ballistic missiles are of no use against internal opposition.”

In his Asia Times online story, Lintner noted that on June 24, the DVB reported that a new radar and missile base had been completed near Mohnyin in Myanmar’s northern Kachin State, and he reported that work on similar radar and missile bases has been reported from Kengtung in eastern Shan State,160 kilometers north of the Thai border town of Mae Sai.

“Since Myanmar is not known to have imported radars and missile components from any country other than North Korea, the installations would appear to be one of the first visible outcomes of a decade of military cooperation,” Lintner said.

Lintner also reported that Western intelligence sources know that 30 to 40 North Korean missile technicians are currently working at a facility near Minhla on the Irrawaddy River in Magwe Division, and that some of the technicians may have arrived overland by bus from China to give the appearance of being Chinese tourists. 

North Korea has also issued adamant denials with respect to allegations regarding its relationship with Burma.

According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), on June 21 Pyongyang said, “The US is now making much fuss, floating the sheer fiction that the DPRK is helping Myanmar [Burma] in its nuclear development.”

The KCNA often highlights the close relationship between North Korea and Burma.

On June 20, the Pyongyang news agency reported that ex-Col Than Tun, deputy chairman of the Union of Myanmar Economic Holding Ltd., sent a statement cheering Kim Jong Il’s 46th anniversary at the Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.

On April 18, Korean state-run- media reported that Than Tun also issued a statement cheering the 17th anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s chairing of North Korea’s National Defense Commission.

“Kim Jong Il’s field inspection of KPA [Korean People’s Army] units served as a main source that helped bolster [North Korea’s] self-reliant defense capability in every way,” the statement noted.

Military sources said the Union of Myanmar Economic Holding Ltd, managed by the junta, is responsible for purchasing imported weapons for Burma’s armed forces, including transferring money to overseas banks such as Korea Kwangson Banking Corporation.

Meanwhile, in addition to its escalating relationship with North Korea, the Burmese military regime has recently boosted ties with Iran, which according to the UN report is also allegedly receiving nuclear and missile technologies from North Korea.

In recent years, Burmese and Iranian officials visited their counterparts homeland for the purported purpose of improving economic ties. Observers, however, said Than Shwe has made a tactical decision to develop relationships with other “pariah states,” particularly enemies of the US, to relieve Western pressure on his regime.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Ali Fathollahi met Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win and Minister of Energy Lun Thi during his trip to Burma on June 15-17.

“The two sides reiterated their desire to further expand the ties of friendship and economic cooperation and to increase cooperation in the regional international forums such as [the] United Nations and Non-Aligned Movement,” The New Light of Myanmar reported on June 18.

Fathollahi’s visit came three months after Maung Myint’s visit to Iran on March 8-11, when he met Iranian Foreign Minister Manochehr Mottaki and Deputy Minister of Petroleum H. Noghrehkar Shirazi.

Read the full story below:
Burma-North Korea Ties: Escalating Over Two Decades
Irrawaddy
Wai Moe
7/7/2010

Share

Most nations not inplementing DPRK sanctions

Monday, June 14th, 2010

According ot the Reuters (via Straits Times):

More than 100 countries may not be doing enough to implement punitive actions against North Korea, said a report from a United Nations panel that monitors compliance with sanctions on the North.

The latest report to the UN Security Council from the Panel of Experts on North Korea, obtained by Reuters, said 111 of the 192 UN member states, or 58 per cent – mostly developing nations – had not submitted reports on their implementation of the council’s two sanction resolutions.

Those resolutions – adopted in 2006 and last year in response to Pyongyang’s two nuclear tests – restricted arms deals, banned trade in technology usable in nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, called for travel bans and asset freezes, and banned North Korean imports of luxury goods.

Some 30 countries submitted reports on their implementation of the first sanction resolution, No. 1718, but not the second, No. 1874.

‘Basically, what this tells us is there’s a lot more work that needs to be done to implement the North Korea sanctions,’ a Security Council diplomat said, on condition of anonymity.

Another envoy agreed: ‘Often, developing countries simply don’t have the resources to implement the sanctions properly.’ He added this created potential weak spots and openings for countries such as North Korea and Iran to skirt UN sanctions.

Read the full story here:
6 in 10 didn’t report sanctions
Reuters (via Straits Times)
6/14/2010

Share

UN accuses DPRK of viloating sanctions

Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

According to the BBC:

A United Nations panel has accused North Korea of continuing to export nuclear and missile technology in defiance of a UN ban.

The experts said North Korea has used front companies and intermediaries to sell weapons and provide illegal assistance to Iran, Syria and Burma.

The preliminary report was compiled by a seven-member group that monitors Pyongyang’s compliance with sanctions.

The 47-page report outlined a broad range of techniques used by North Korea to evade sanctions imposed by the UN after the North’s nuclear tests of 2006 and 2009, the Associated Press reports.

The report said North Korea had moved quickly to replace banned individuals and entities with others to enable it to continue the nuclear trade.

Among a number of “masking techniques”, it said the North describes exports falsely, mislabels shipping container contents, falsifies information about the destinations of goods and uses “multiple layers of intermediaries, shell companies, and financial institutions”.

The report said North Korea has a range of legitimate trade offices but also sustains links with international criminal organisations to pursue the banned trades.

An unnamed diplomat told Reuters the findings were “not entirely surprising”.

“The point is that North Korea has been providing that kind of aid to Iran, Syria and Burma,” he said.

The report comes before a crucial day of talks in New York about the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

It also comes at a time of increased tension surrounding what international investigators say was a deadly North Korean torpedo attack on a South Korean warship in March.

Read the full article here:
North Korea ‘trading nuclear technology’ says UN panel
BBC
5/28/2010

Share

Einhorn named to enforce UN sanctions

Saturday, May 29th, 2010

According tot he Joonang Ilbo:

The U.S. government has nominated Robert Einhorn, an expert in nonproliferation issues, as its new coordinator for implementing UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea, diplomatic sources in Seoul said on Thursday.

Einhorn is currently the special adviser to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for nonproliferation and arms control, and a source here said Einhorn is one of Washington’s leading experts in Korean Peninsula and North Korean nuclear issues.

The sources said the United States is looking to streamline the process by which it implements sanctions, as it prepares to seek a UN resolution that addresses the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan. Last week, a multinational team of investigators concluded that North Korea attacked the 1,200-ton corvette with a torpedo on March 26.

“The U.S. administration was seeking more efficient management of implementation of sanctions, which had been divided between the State and the Treasury departments,” the source said. “Philip Goldberg, the assistant state secretary at the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, had been doubling as the implementation coordinator, but Einhorn is poised to take over.

“The U.S. government also tried to strengthen its sanctions system after the second North Korean nuclear test last year, when Goldberg was named the coordinator,” the source said. Goldberg was appointed to his Bureau of Intelligence and Research post in February.

Another source said Einhorn’s nomination is also part of the U.S. government’s efforts to follow up on President Barack Obama’s order to review “existing authorities and policies” on North Korea. Soon after South Korean President Lee Myung-bak unveiled Seoul’s countermeasures against Pyongyang Monday, the White House expressed its support and said in a statement, “This review is aimed at ensuring that we have adequate measures in place and to identify areas where adjustments would be appropriate.”

According to the State Department, Einhorn spent 29 years at the department and served as a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies from 2001 to 2009. He held arms control and nonproliferation positions at the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, and from 1999 to 2001 he was the assistant state secretary for nonproliferation.

In October 2000, Einhorn accompanied then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to Pyongyang, where he met Kim Jong-il twice. Einhorn was also involved in missile talks with North Korea.

“Aside from his knowledge of North Korean nuclear issues, Einhorn is tight with Gary Samore, the weapons of mass destruction coordinator at the White House, and other nonproliferation officials in the Obama administration,” another source in Seoul said. “Einhorn should be able to provide leadership in his new role.

“And since he’s also been dealing with financial sanctions on Iran as the special adviser at the State Department, Einhorn is a great fit to manage financial embargoes against North Korea.”

Another diplomatic source said the Obama administration needed to tighten its sanctions regime. The source said when North Korean overseas accounts were closed off by U.S. sanctions, they simply changed the name of the individual or the company which had opened the account and resumed transactions. The sanctions were aimed at banning transactions by companies or individuals suspected of involvement in the North’s weapons of mass destruction programs.

“U.S. officials have taken note of such [name-changing] practices and they’re preparing measures to eliminate them,” the source said.

U.S. officials are also continuing to press China to join them in punishing North Korea. In an interview with National Public Radio yesterday, Korean time, Kurt Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said that because China is cooperating with the United States about nuclear issues in Iran, he hopes it will do the same in dealing with the Cheonan case.

In another related move, Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama condemned the Cheonan attack in a phone conversation and pledged cooperation with South Korea. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano said Japan will lower the limit on the amount of undeclared cash that can be carried into North Korea to 100,000 yen ($1,097) from the current 300,000 yen, as part of Japan’s toughened sanctions.

Read the full story here:
U.S. nominates sanctions ace
Joongang Daily
Kang Chan-ho, Yoo Jee-ho
5/29/2010

Share

The sinking of the Cheonan

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

UPDATE 68 (2012-8-27): The Hankyoreh reports on a new study (order the study here) that asserts that the Cheonan could have been sunk by an abandoned South Korean mine.  According to the article:

An article has been published in an international academic journal arguing that the explosion that sank the South Korean Cheonan warship in March 2010 may not have been from a North Korean torpedo, but from a mine discarded by the South Korean navy.

This is the second scientific study on the Cheonan sinking published in an academic journal, the first being a seismic analysis published last year by Yonsei University Department of Earth System Sciences professor Hong Tae-kyung. That study supported the findings of the government’s joint investigation team.

In the study published in the international academic journal “Pure and Applied Geophysics,” Korea Seismological Institute director Kim So-gu and the Geophysical Institute of Israel’s Yefim Gitterman wrote that analysis of the seismic waves, acoustic waves and bubble frequency made it clear an underwater explosion took place.

They said the seismic magnitude of the explosion was 2.04, that of 136kg of TNT and equivalent to the individual yield of the large number of land control mines abandoned by the Korean navy after they were first installed in the 1970s.

The findings are noteworthy in that they differ greatly from those of the Civilian-Military Joint Investigation Group (MCNJIG), which found the cause of the sinking to be a North Korean CHT-02D torpedo with a yield of 250kg of TNT exploding at a depth of six to nine meters, producing a seismic yield of 1.5.

Read the full Hankyoreh story here.

UPDATE 67 (4/1/2011): A group of US lawmakers are working to add the DPRK back to the US list of state sponsors of terror.  According to Yonhap:

A bipartisan group of congressmen will soon submit legislation to re-designate North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism for its torpedoing of a South Korean warship and shelling of a South Korean border island that killed 50 people last year, sources said Friday.

“I understand Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has almost completed drafting the legislation, and she is likely to submit the legislation as soon as possible,” a congressional source said, adding several other Republican and Democratic congressmen are expected to sponsor the legislation.

Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, introduced similar legislation in May last year but it didn’t pass.

In June, she had wreaths laid at the tombs of the 46 South Korean sailors killed in the sinking of the warship Cheonan in waters near the western sea border with North Korea.

UPDATE 66 (3/31/2011): A member of North Korea’s National Defense Commission has now issued a statement about the Cheonan sinking, as well as a subsequent artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong Island by North Korean forces eight months later.  According to KCNA:

A spokesman for the inspection group of the DPRK National Defence Commission issued the following statement on Thursday:

One year has passed since warship “Cheonan” sank in the waters off Paekryong Island in the West Sea of Korea.

But the south Korean authorities and military warmongers, hell-bent on the inter-Korean stand-off and steeped in distrust in compatriots, are still linking the warship “Cheonan” sinking case with the DPRK and passing the buck for the Yonphyong Island shelling on it, escalating confrontation with it.

The inspection group of the NDC of the DPRK has already opened to the public the truth of the two cases twice.

At the outset of the occurrence of the “Cheonan” warship sinking case, the DPRK expressed regret at those who suffered the disaster from the viewpoint that they are members of the Korean nation though they were soldiers of the south Korean army who leveled guns at the DPRK.

Nevertheless, the south Korean authorities and military warmongers floated investigation results without any scientific ground and objective nature in a bid to deliberately lay obstacles in the way of achieving national reconciliation and unity and block the way of achieving peace and prosperity desired by all the fellow countrymen.

They have become evermore sinister and brazenfaced in their reckless anti-DPRK confrontation rackets with the first anniversary of the occurrence of the case as a momentum, in particular, only to touch off burning resentment of all the Koreans.

This situation compelled the inspection group of the NDC of the DPRK to re-clarify its principled stand internally and externally.

1. The south Korean authorities and military warmongers should no longer perpetrate such reckless act as linking the “Cheonan” warship sinking case with the DPRK.

Explicitly speaking once again, the DPRK has nothing to do with the case. This means something irrelevant to it can never be anything in which it is allegedly involved no matter how much water may flow under the bridge.

Any attempt to deliberately link the DPRK with the case while shunning this stark reality would only serve as a living testimony that they are only seeking to escalate confrontation with fellow countrymen and deteriorate inter-Korean relations.

The south Korean side walked out of the venue of the preliminary contact for opening the north-south high-level military talks without any patience. But it falsified the fact, claiming that the north was the first to walk out of the venue. They should stop such folly at an early date and no longer link the DPRK with the above-said case.

The further they bedevil inter-Korean relations while spreading the “story about the north’s involvement” full of lies and fabrications, the deeper pitfall of history they will find themselves.

The inspection group of the NDC will probe the truth about the “farce” by issuing the third and fourth statements till the above-said story has disappeared.

2. They should no longer work hard to pass the buck for the Yonphyong Island shelling on the DPRK.

Explicitly speaking, the above-said shelling incident was an unsavory case which occurred as they preempted a provocation against the DPRK.

Had they not preempted firing shells into the inviolable territorial waters of the DPRK, there would not have occurred the shelling on the island.

Various forms of firing exercises and drills targeted against the DPRK have frequently taken place in the areas of south Korea and waters around it for more than six decades since the division of the country. But the army of the DPRK has not taken any physical counteraction against them even once.

Any attempt to conceal the criminal preemptive shelling and shift the responsibility for it onto the other is an act of deceiving not only themselves but all the fellow countrymen and an anti-peace act little short of pulling the wool over the eyes of the whole world.

If they do not want to suffer the same disgrace as they did through the Yonphyong Island shelling incident, they should broad-mindedly halt such shameless act as shifting their blame onto the other and have a proper attitude to settle the issue.

Their oft-repeated talk about someone’s responsibility for the Yonphyong Island shelling would only harden the DPRK’s determination to protect the fair and aboveboard extension of the Military Demarcation Line in the West Sea.

3. The present south Korean authorities and military warmongers should stop the reckless anti-DPRK hysteria under the pretence of the two cases.

They are resorting to anti-DPRK confrontation rackets and reckless psychological warfare, anxiously waiting for “contingency” of someone to occur, and staging various forms of military exercises and drills, stoking a war atmosphere. But they should bear in mind that their much anticipated “contingency” is bound to take place in the south, not in the north.

Their anti-DPRK confrontation hysteria kicked up by them under the pretexts of the two cases is as foolish an act as shaking fist in the back lane after being hit hard in a street.

This is nothing but a thoughtless and traitorous action to calm down the distrust in the two cases shown by different circles of south Korea, settle the ever-growing “discord” in the south, adhere to the nonsensical “theory of principle” in dealing with the inter-Korean relations and stick to the wrong hard-line policy towards the north.

The inspection group of the National Defence Commission regards their anti-DPRK confrontation campaign being staged on the lapse of one year since the occurrence of the warship “Cheonan” sinking case as no more than a farce of “counting the age of a dead child”.

The DPRK wishes more ardently than anyone else to see the tension defused on the Korean Peninsula and achieve peace through the improved relations between the north and the south and this process leading to peace and prosperity of Northeast Asia and the rest of the world.

Precisely for this reason the DPRK proposed on its own initiative comprehensive dialogue and negotiations and has made every possible effort of goodwill to put them into practice.

The reality indicates that the nation is standing at the crossroads of detente and increased tension and peace and prosperity and war.

It is the stand of the Korean People’s Army to have bold dialogue or fight a real war.

The present south Korean authorities and puppet military warmongers should properly understand that they are standing on the crossroads of dialogue and war.

UPDATE 65: Production value at the Kaesong Industrial Zone returns to pre-Cheonan levels.

UPDATE 64: South Korea Abandons Demand for Apology Over Ship’s Sinking

UPDATE 63: DPRK offers samples to refute claims it sank the Cheonan.  According to Reuters:

North Korea offered on Tuesday to provide samples of its torpedoes to refute an international investigation that blamed Pyongyang for the sinking of a South Korean warship earlier this year.

UPDATE 62: Russia will not release its Cheonan report.  Read more in the Korea Times.

UPDATE 61: South Korea has issued another report claiming the DPRK is responsible.  Read about it here, here and here.

UPDATE 60: DPRK torpedo catalog includes name of torpedo exporter.

UPDATE 59: DPRK asked to hold summit before Cheonan incident.

UPDATE 58Russian team casts doubt on Cheonan findings.

UPDATE 57: The Daily NK reports that the alleged North Korean propeller came from Kagam, Kaechon county. 39°32’37.77″N, 125°50’47.24″E.

UPDATE 56: Barbara Demick writes about South Koreans skeptical of the government’s claims.

UPDATE 55: Nautilus Institute publishes inconsistencies in RoK Cheonan report.

UPDATE 54North Korean officials postpone warship talks with US (Washington Post)

UPDATE 53: UNSC condemns sinking but does not blame DPRK.

UPDATE 52: UNSC reaches deadlock.

UPDATE 51: North and South Korean ambassadors to South Africa exchange words at World Cup event

UPDATE 50: South Korea Rejects North on Joint Sinking Probe Idea

UPDATE 49: Cheonan Investigators Presented Wrong Torpedo Diagram

UPDATE 48: John McGlynn brings a skeptical eye to the Cheonan findings

UPDATE 47: Gomes has been threatened over the political fallout resulting from the sinking of the Cheonan.

UPDATE 46: EU Condemns N.Korea Over Cheonan Sinking

UPDATE 45UNSC raises no objections to RoK assessment of sinking.

UPDATE 44: 11 DPRK ships turned away from ROK waters 20 times.

UPDATE 43: South Korea adds regulatory barrier to inter-Korean trade.

UPDATE 42: Hankyoreh: Wide-ranging incompetence and cover-ups took place night of Cheonan sinking, audit reveals

UPDATE 41: South Korea has installed speakers along the DMZ (previously removed under the Sunshine Policy).  There seems to be some dispute about how many.  Korea Times says 2Yonhap says 11.

UPDATE 40: DPRK sends letter to UNSC.

UPDATE 39: Lankov was right.  The Russians are unconvinced. See here and here.

UPDATE 38: Russian experts complete investigation of Cheonan in Seoul but do not release findings. Lankov believes that the Russian government will come to know what actually happened, though their public comments will remain neutral.

UPDATE 37The Cheonan incident may have brought down the PM of Japan.

UPDATE 36: South Korea asks UN Security Council to act.

UPDATE 35: South Korea wants UN to send symbolic message, not increase sanctions.

UPDATE 34: China aims to be impartial.

UPDATE 33: Seoul still waiting for China to send an investigation team to examine the evidence.

UPDATE 32: Japan tightens sanctions.

UPDATE 31: South Korea refutes the DPRK’s counter-claims.  Read more here and here.

UPDATE 30: The South Korean govenrment delays propaganda broadcasts. Private groups continue to send propaganda. baloons.

UPDATE 29: The EU has cancelled a parliamentary delegation to the DPRK.

UPDATE 28: The Military Armistice Commission, under the United Nations Command (UNC), has completed its own investigation into the sinking of the “Cheonan” naval vessel.

UPDATE 27: The Russians have sent a team to Seoul to examine the ROK’s claims.

UPDATE 26: DPRK rejects ROK evidence. According to the AFP:

North Korea has flatly rejected evidence showing it torpedoed a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 lives, saying it does not even own a midget submarine allegedly used for the March attack.

The North’s powerful National Defence Commission (NDC), chaired by leader Kim Jong-Il, held a rare press conference on Friday and denied Pyongyang’s involvement, according to official North Korean media.

Major General Pak Rim Su, director of the policy department of the NDC, said the North does not have a 130-tonne “Yeono (salmon)-class” submarine, which the South says torpedoed its 1,200-ton corvette, the Cheonan, in the Yellow Sea.

“We don’t have anything like a 130-tonne Yeono-class submersible,” Pak was quoted by Pyongyang’s Chungang TV as telling reporters.

A multinational investigation led by Seoul concluded earlier this month that the March 26 sinking was caused by a torpedo attack from the North.

South Korean investigators said a Yeono class midget submarine had intruded into South Korean waters via international waters.

But Pak said: “It does not make any sense militarily that a 130-tonne submersible carrying a heavy 1.7-tonne torpedo travelled through the open sea into the South, sank the ship and returned home.”

But South Korea’s Yonhap news agency quoted South Korean officials as saying the North’s submarine fleet includes around 10 Yeono class submarines.

Pak also rebutted Seoul’s allegation that salvaged fragments of the torpedo matched design specifications that appeared on brochures the North allegedly sent to an unidentified potential buyer of North Korean torpedoes.

“Who in the world would hand over torpedo designs while selling torpedoes?” he said.

But Yonhap quoted an unidentified senior government official as saying that the South got hold of brochures sent by a North Korean state-run trading company to a potential weapons buyer that contain design specifications of three types of torpedoes.

Senior Colonel Ri Son Gwon dismissed as a “fabrication” a serial number hand-written on a torpedo fragment reading “1 bun” or number one.

South Korea said the serial number handwritten in Korean was strong evidence of Pyongyang’s involvement in the sinking.

“When we put serial numbers on weapons, we engrave them with machines,” Ri said. “We use ‘bun’ only for football or basketball players,” he said.

But South Korean investigators said the North also uses “bun” for numbering things to be assembled, attributing the information to defectors from North Korea.

Pak said the Seoul-led multinational team was not in a position to conduct an objective probe and attacked Seoul for rejecting Pyongyang’s demand to allow its own experts to investigate the cause of the sinking.

Voice of America has more.

UPDATE 25: Daily NK reports that DPRK is not on war footing.

UPDATE 24: China put in awkward position vis a vis South Korea, Japan.  See here, here, and here.

According to the New York Times:

Japan, which already bans trade with the North, said Friday that it would lower the limit on the amount of undeclared cash that could be carried to North Korea to 100,000 yen, or about $1,100, from the current 300,000 yen, or $3,300.

The maximum amount that can be sent to North Korea without being reported to the Japanese government was lowered to $33,000 from $110,000.

According to Washington Post:

A visit last week to Beijing and Seoul by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton served, at least, to put China on the spot. Ms. Clinton rightly pressed the Chinese leadership to consider the commission’s 400-page report. She spoke publicly about the need for “a strong but measured response” to the incident as well as cooperation on the future direction of North Korea, which some experts believe may be unraveling.

China’s best response came Friday when Premier Wen Jiabao, on a visit to Seoul, reportedly told President Lee Myun-bak in a closed meeting that Beijing would not protect the North if it concluded that the North was responsible. South Korean officials took that as a hint that China might not oppose Mr. Lee’s plan to seek a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the Kim regime. Yet China has offered no sign that it will take any action of its own to pressure the North, though it has far more leverage than any other country. Indeed, President Hu Jintao hosted Mr. Kim this month — and probably committed to supply him with more aid — even after the naval attack.

In the short term China’s behavior has benefited the United States. Watching Beijing defend the indefensible probably helped the Japanese government settle a dispute with the Obama administration over a U.S. base on Okinawa. It has shown South Koreans as well as people throughout Asia why the United States remains an indispensable guarantor of security in the region.

According to the LA Times:

South Korea and China are projected to do up to $200 billion in trade annually by 2012, according to Wen’s remarks Friday in Seoul; trade between China and North Korea is estimated at $1.5 billion.

UPDATE 23: The Financial Times puts together a list of scenarios which might explain the Cheonan’s sinking. I have paraphrased them below:

Revenge: North Korea wanted revenge for a sea battle in November, when one of its ships was badly damaged.

Succession: Some defectors have said he is trying to associate Jong-eun’s name with major successes in domestic propaganda.

Internal power struggle: Some analysts believe the attack could have been the work of a single rogue commander, possibly vying for patronage as the succession gathers pace. North Korea this month made the highly unusual announcement that it was removing Kim Il-chol, a senior admiral on the National Defence Commission, prompting speculation the navy could have exceeded its authority.

Reversion to hardline ideology: Some scholars say Kim Jong-il had, until last year, been increasingly open to advice from a more liberal faction, advocating market and currency reform. When this backfired, he had no choice but to listen more to Cold War-era ideologues.

Breakdown of command: Perhaps the most worrying of the possibilities is that Kim Jong-il is no longer in full command, possibly because of a stroke the North Korean leader suffered in 2008. This could mean the sinking was either the result of jostling commanders or poor judgment from Mr Kim himself. Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, believes the country has become a “rudderless ship” and that logical decision-making has fallen to pieces, as seen when Pyongyang revalued its currency to disastrous effect late last year.

Distract from economic woes: South Korea’s military intelligence argues the sinking of one of its warships by Pyongyang could distract from hunger and economic failure in the north.

Bitterness about G20 meeting in Seoul: Seoul has been turning its presidency of the G20 group of leading economies this year into domestic propaganda, parading how well it has developed economically since the Korean War of 1950-1953.

UPDATE 22: KCNA posts links to all of the DPRK’s official coments.

UPDATE 21: Lankov explains the inconsistent behavior of the South Korean government.

UPDATE 20South Korea halts all trade with the DPRK over the Cheonan incident.

UPDATE 19:(h/t Aidan Foster-Carter) DPRK military spokesman may be the same individual who led the capture of the USS Pueblo.  According to the Associated Press:

Evidence presented Thursday to prove North Korea fired a torpedo that sank a South Korean ship was fabricated by Seoul, North Korean naval spokesman Col. Pak In Ho told broadcaster APTN in an exclusive interview in Pyongyang.

He warned that any move to sanction or strike North Korea would be met with force.

“If (South Korea) tries to deal any retaliation or punishment, or if they try sanctions or a strike on us …. we will answer to this with all-out war,” he told APTN.

And according to KCNA (2003):

Pak In Ho, an officer and hero of the republic who was the head of the seven-member death-defying corps that captured the ship, briefs visitors on what the ship did, the combat for capturing it and the brazen-faced and crafty nature of the U.S. imperialists.

UPDATE 18: According to Reuters,  the United Nations Command (UNC) has launched an investigation into whether North Korea violated the Korean War armistice.  On Monday, South Korea will bring the case before the UNSC.

UPDATE 17: According to Voice of America,  the DPRK is demanding access to the ROK’s investigation of the Cheonan sinking.  Part of me wonders if the North Koreans even remember Park Wang-ja.

UPDATE 16: According to the Choson Ilbo:

…the submarine and support vessel left the base on Cape Bipagot, around 80 km from Baeknyeong Island on March 23 and maneuvered out of the sight of South Korean and U.S. intelligence. The ship apparently accompanied the submarine to provide support and offer aid in case the sub encountered difficulties. The submarine took a detour out into open seas and arrived in waters to the west of Baeknyeong Island on March 25. There it is believed to have awaited its prey 10 m under the surface for about a day.

cheonan-sinking-thumb.jpg

Click image for larger version

You can click here to see satellite imagrey of all the DPRK’s south-western naval facilities, including Bipagot.

Also according to the same story in the Choson Ilbo:

The submarine class was unknown until now. The 130-ton sub ranks between the shark (325 tons) and a Yugo class (85 tons). Air Force Lt. Gen. Hwang Won-dong, the chief of the intelligence analysis team, said, the sub “is similar to the shark-class submarine and was built recently for export, equipped with night-vision equipment and other high-tech gadgets, as well as a unique structure to enhance its stealth capabilities.” Intelligence experts say the sub is the same as the three “Ghadir” class midget submarines the North exported to Iran.

Planeman has some terrific information on the sub type.  Check out these pictures from Bluffer’s Guide to Iranian Naval Power: Sub outside, Sub interior.

According to his web page:

Dimensions: L 29m, W 2.75m
Displacement : 120 tons dived
Crew: ?
Endurance: ?
Speed (est): 11kts surfaced, 8kts submerged
Powerplant: Diesel-electric

Armament: 2 x 533mm (21”) torpedo tubes with 2 torpedoes, Skhval rocket torpedoes or ~4 mines. Possibly submarine launched anti-ship missiles but unsubstantiated.

Of North Korean design, the IS-120 Ghadir (Qadir) submarine closely resembles the North Korean “P-4 Class”.

Some models of the Ghadir appear to have conventional cruciform tail fins with conventional propeller instead of the North Korean sub’s unconventional control plane arrangement and co-axel twin propeller. Photos of a production boat however show the unusual under-tail hydroplane position as per the North Korean boats. The coaxil twin props of the P-4 is replaced by a single skewed skrew in the usual place, plus a small ducted skrew mounted above, possible steerable. The exact reasoning for the two propellers is not clear but it is likely that the smaller one is intended for slow/quite running and counter-drift. Its mast and unusual snorkel (which folds backwards into the hull -casing when not in use) is almost identical however. It is possible that there are several iterations of boat with varying tail arrangements and snort-mast stowage (some appear to remain above the deck when folded).

Another charactristic which has yet to be explained is a small container mounted externally on the forward deck just ahead of the sail. This resembles an oil drum. One guess might be compressed gas.

Estimates of the size of this submarine vary greatly but video evidence confirms that there’s barely enough room to stand up in the hull.

UPDATE 15: More media (H/T NKnews.org)

North Korea threatens war in English-language radio broadcast: Audio clip on YouTube.

Clinton Condemns Attack on South Korean Ship
New York Times
Mark Landler
5/21/2010

U.N. Command to probe whether N. Korea violated armistice
Yonhap
Kim Deok-hyun
5/21/2010

Int’l Experts Agree on Cheonan Findings
Choson Ilbo
5/21/2010

How Did N.Korea Sink the Cheonan?
Choson Ilbo
5/21/2010

UPDATE 14: (5/20/2010) Today the South Korean government officially accused the DPRK of intentionally sinking the Cheonan with a torpedo from a submarine.  Here are a number of stories and documents:

Seoul vows retaliation after confirming N.K. torpedo sank warship
Yonhap
Kim Deok-hyun
5/20/2010

Irrefutable Evidence Implicates N.Korea, Says Lee
Choson Ilbo
5/20/2010

Cheonan Sinking: Photographic Evidence
Daily NK
5/20/2010

Pentagon won’t say ship sinking is an act of war
AP via Washington Post
Anne Flaherty and Matthew Lee
5/20/2010

The BBC offers a PDF of the findings of the investigatory panel.  It is available in PDF here.

What’s going on in Pyongyang
Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
5/20/2010

UPDATE 13: South Korea to formally accuse the DPRK.  According to the Washington Post:

South Korea concluded that North Korea was responsible for the attack after investigators from Australia, Britain, Sweden and the United States pieced together portions of the ship at the port of Pyeongtaek, 40 miles southwest of Seoul. The Cheonan sank on March 26 after an explosion rocked the 1,200-ton vessel as it sailed on the Yellow Sea off South Korea’s west coast.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because South Korea has yet to disclose the findings of the investigation, said subsequent analysis determined that the torpedo was identical to a North Korean torpedo that South Korea had obtained.

Of the countries aiding South Korea in its inquiry, officials said that Sweden had been the most reluctant to go along with the findings but that when the evidence was amassed, it too agreed that North Korea was to blame. A spokesman for the Swedish Embassy declined to comment.

China has called on both parties to remain calm, but its fence-sitting risks damaging its ties with South Korea, East Asian officials said. “China wants to be a wise giant treating all parties the same,” said a senior diplomat. “But somebody committed murder here. This is ridiculous. This is a barometer for China. We are watching how they respond.”

To that end, South Korea will request that the U.N. Security Council take up the issue in an effort to tighten sanctions on North Korea, the officials said. The United States has indicated it would support such an action, U.S. officials said. President Obama and Lee spoke via telephone on Monday, according to the White House. Lee briefed Obama on the probe, the White House said, and the two “committed to follow the facts of the investigation wherever they lead.”

The Obama administration is also leaning toward relisting North Korea as a sponsor of terrorism, a move that would open the door for even more sanctions that could strike at the heart of North Korea’s economy.

Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada told his South Korean counterpart on Monday that Japan would also support taking the issue to the Security Council, the Japanese news media reported Tuesday.

It is unclear whether Beijing would support taking the issue to the Security Council; a senior Chinese official said China would first need proof that North Korea launched the attack.

Analysts said China would be reluctant to take strong measures against North Korea because its main interest is to keep the country intact. North Korea’s collapse would create hundreds of thousands of refugees and probably lead to the emergence of a Western-leaning united Korea on China’s border.

Also of interest….North-East Asia Matters translates a Choson ilbo piece which reports on the importance of some recovered torpedo fragments. According to the report, ” the joint investigation team reportedly was able to retrieve a pair of torpedo propellers in relatively good shape last week in the mud near the location where the Cheonan went down. After comparing the serial number imprinted on the retrieved propellers to a known North Korean sample, the investigation team reportedly found the font and the imprinting style used in the serial number of the retrieved propeller to be a match to the North Korean sample. Read more here.

More updates via NKnews.org:
1. Choson Ilbo on the torpedo serial numbers.
2. S. Korea briefs envoys of China, Russia, Japan on warship sinking

Read the full article here:
South Korea to officially blame North Korea for March torpedo attack on warship
Washington Post
John Pomfret and Blaine Harden
5/19/2010

UPDATE 12: South Korean Ministries asked to stop DPRK aid.

UPDATE 11: South Korea freezes spending on the DPRK.

UPDATE 10: Bermudez speculates on the DPRK’s submarines.

UPDATE 9: South Korea is examining DPRK trade and investment.

UPDATE 8: Here are the DPRK’s naval bases in the area where the Cheonan sank.

UPDATE 7: Seoul considers how it can respond should the DPRK be behind the sinking of the Cheonan.  It considers resuming broadcasts across the DMZ, reducing imports from the DPRK, and refraining from giving the DPRK a free feed of the World Cup.

UPDATE 6: According to the New York Times explosive residue has been detected on the Cheonan:

“It is true that traces of RDX, a chemical substance used in making torpedoes, have been found,” Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said Monday, referring to a component common to many military explosives. He said that there was “a high possibility” that a torpedo was the cause of the explosion, but that it was also too soon to conclude definitively that it was the cause.

The material was found on the ship’s smokestack and in samples of sand from the site of the sinking, said Rear Adm. Moon Byung-ok, a spokesman for the investigation team. He noted that RDX is also used in making mines.

UPDATE 5: Evan Ramstad writes in the Wall Street Journal how this event could influence the South Korean elections:

As South Korea gets closer to understanding what happened to a naval ship that sank near the maritime border with North Korea last month, the incident is shaping up to be a major influence on a legislative election in June that will be the political event of the year here.

The sinking of the Cheonan patrol ship on March 26 is already the most difficult challenge President Lee Myung-bak has faced since he took office in early 2008. It led to the death of 46 South Korean sailors—the most in a military incident here since the 1980s. And it raised suspicions of North Korean involvement, because it occurred near the inter-Korean maritime border where the South’s navy sent a North Korean vessel back in flames after a skirmish last November.

It also happened as South Korea nears the biennial legislative election on June 2, a vote that comes near the halfway point of Mr. Lee’s five-year tenure and, until the Cheonan incident, appeared likely to be a referendum on his policies and handling of the economic crisis.

“Generally speaking, people have a fairly high level of satisfaction with Lee government, especially over the economy,” says Kang Won-taek, a political scientist at Soongsil University in Seoul. “But people tend to use this election, like the U.S. mid-term election, to send a warning signal against the incumbent government.”

Now, the Cheonan sinking has added a new element. Politicians from Mr. Lee’s ruling conservative Grand National Party and a related faction are staking out a hard line in case North Korea is involved. The leader of a minority conservative party has already called for a military strike.

Meanwhile, opposition politicians, in progressive and nationalist parties, are using the incident to criticize Mr. Lee’s administration, with some seeking the resignation of top military officials.

North Korea stepped into the fray this weekend when its state-run news agency on Saturday relayed a commentary from an unidentified military source that blamed South Korea for the sinking and said Mr. Lee’s government was trying to use it against the North. However, the statement did not explicitly deny North Korean involvement in the sinking.

Last week, a salvage crew raised the stern of the ship from 37 metersof water and investigators found the bodies of 36 sailors inside. The stern sank first, while the bow floated for several hours as 58 sailors clung to it and were rescued.

Mr. Lee and top defense officials have said they won’t be able to determine what caused the sinking until the ship is fully recovered. Another salvage crew will begin lifting the bow, which settled in about 21 meters of water, as soon as Monday.

Survivors say the Cheonan was rocked by an external explosion. A preliminary examination of the stern confirmed that assessment, the military’s chief investigator said Friday, but he added that it will take more time to know whether it was struck by a torpedo or a mine.

If North Korea is found to be involved, Mr. Lee and his party may get a boost in what Mr. Kang called a “rally around the flag effect.” The political scientist added, “At the same time, the Cheonan case shows some poor performance of the incumbent government in military affairs and will lead to some discussion of political accountability.”

If North Korea is found to have caused the sinking, Mr. Lee will face a difficult decision over how to respond. Mr. Lee hasn’t publicly discussed his options, but analysts say they include economic penalties like cutting off more trade with Pyongyang, a return to the use of radio broadcasts to send messages to North Koreans and a variety of military strikes.

On Sunday, South Korean foreign minister Yu Myung-hwan told KBS, a South Korean TV network, that the country will likely first ask the United Nations Security Council to become involved in imposing a penalty if North Korea caused the sinking.

Much of the North Korean commentary released Saturday on the sinking was devoted to its effect on South Korean politics. North Korea’s authoritarian government has for years favored nationalist politicians in the South and has heaped criticism on Mr. Lee since shortly after he took office.

“If public opinion is built to claim that the accident occurred due to ‘an internal factor’ and its cause is not properly clarified, the group of traitors will be held directly responsible for it and, accordingly, will not be able to escape a heavy defeat in the forthcoming ‘June 2 local elections’,” the commentary said.

The language bore the assumption—which is standard in North Korea—that South Korea is actually a wayward part of a country that Pyongyang should run, is governed by traitors to its regime and conducts unfair elections. The commentary went on: “This will lead to the split of the conservative camp including the ‘Grand National Party’ and the weakening of its ruling power, throwing the group into an inescapable predicament.”

UPDATE 4: The Cheonan has been recovered and signs point to an external explosion (torpedo or mine).  According to Reuters (via MSNBC):

The likelihood North Korea sank a South Korean naval ship near their disputed border rose when Seoul said on Friday an external explosion probably caused the ship to split in two, killing dozens.

South Korea’s defense minister said this month the 1,200-tonne Cheonan may have been hit by a torpedo, immediately putting suspicion on North Korea and stoking concerns that the incident could start a conflict on the long divided peninsula.

“Conclusively, after a visual inspection, there is a higher chance of an outer explosion than an internal one,” Yoon Duk-yong, a top investigation official, told a news conference.

UPDATE 3: Aidan Foster-Carter provides context for the sinking.  Read his piece in the Asia Times here.

UPDATE 2: Andrei Lankov offers a rationale for the South Korean government’s handling of the situation.  According to the Herald Tribune (via the New York Times):

On the evening of March 26, Cheonan, a 1,200-ton South Korean corvette, was on patrol in coastal waters near the disputed border with North Korea when its stern was suddenly torn away by a powerful explosion.

The warship sank within a few minutes, taking the lives of 46 sailors. The South Korean government initially assumed the warship was attacked by a North Korean submarine and put its military on high alert.

However, the next morning the South Korean government began to work hard to dismiss or at least downplay the probability of a North Korean attack. President Lee Myung-bak and his officials warned against “premature conclusions” and emphasized that there was no definite evidence linking the Cheonan disaster to North Korea.

They might be right: despite occasional bouts of bellicose rhetoric, North Korea is currently in a negotiating mood (that is, seeking to squeeze more money from the outside world). But the evidence points to an external explosion roughly equivalent to that of 180 kilograms of TNT, so a mine or torpedo are the most plausible explanations.

If so, why is the Seoul government dismissing such an option? There are good reasons for this. If North Korean involvement was established, the Seoul government would face a hard choice: it would have to retaliate or be seen as spineless. This is a lose-lose situation for South Korea, since it has no way of “punishing” the North.

Full-scale war is out of the question. The military balance leaves almost no doubt that a war would be won by the South (with some American involvement), but the price of victory would be unacceptably high.

The Seoul metropolitan area, home to half of South Korea’s population, lies within range of a heavy concentration of North Korean artillery. A massive artillery barrage would leave many thousands dead and devastate vital parts of the country. Any advance north across difficult and heavily fortified mountainous terrain would also be very costly — not to mention the costs of postwar reconstruction.

So nothing short of a massive North Korean attack on major population centers in the South would likely be seen by Seoul as sufficient cause for a large-scale military operation.

Limited actions, such as raids against the North Korean naval and military installations, would make the Seoul government look strong in the eyes of voters, but would create many problems for which the same voters would soon start blaming the government.

Plus, such raids are useless. Kim Jong Il and his henchmen would not lose sleep if they learned that a few dozen North Korean sailors or soldiers were killed in a South Korean attack. In the North, even the death of many thousands is politically irrelevant so long as they are not members of Kim’s inner circle. At the same time, such raids would scare investors away from South Korea and damage its financial rating.

Financial sanctions, such as closing the Kaesong industrial park, a joint South-North economic development, or freezing the few remaining exchange projects, might seem attractive at first glance, but in the long run could be counterproductive. Contrary to some assumptions, the Kaesong park and other exchange projects are damaging for Kim Jong Il, since they represent a potentially dangerous contact with the outside world.

Without any means of retaliating, Lee Myung-bak’s administration may have decided to play down the likelihood of North Korea’s involvement or at least portray it as one of several possible explanations.

Whether North Korea was involved or not, the Cheonan affair is a sober reminder that if North Korea did choose to become aggressive again, not much could be done to counter it. Partial operations might be impressive but are inefficient, and large-scale retaliation would likely be quietly blocked by the South Koreans. This is understandable — they’re the ones who live on the front line.

(more…)

Share

Russia and Japan extend DPRK sanctions

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

According to the Associated Press:

Russia’s president has signed an order formally implementing U.N. Security Council-approved sanctions against North Korea.
The sanctions were passed in June by the Security Council, which includes Russia, after the country conducted a nuclear test. The sanctions are aimed at pushing North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.

To conform with the sanctions, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday ordered that all sales or imports of North Korean weapons and materials connected to them are forbidden.

It also bans weapons exports to the reclusive Communist country and bars transport of North Korean weapons through Russian territory, including its waters and airspace.

And according to Reuters:

Japan will extend sanctions against North Korea first imposed after the reclusive country tested a nuclear device and ballistic missiles in 2006, a senior official said on Tuesday.

The sanctions, previously set to expire on April 13, ban imports from North Korea and prohibit North Korean ships from calling at Japanese ports.

“Basically, I don’t see any reason for not extending (the sanctions),” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano told a news conference.

Asked whether the government would consider shortening the duration of the sanctions to six months from one year, Hirano said it would assess the outlook for multilateral talks that seek to persuade North Korea to roll back its nuclear program.

Japan has called for Pyongyang to return to the disarmament-for-aid talks hosted by China, in addition to pressing the country to reveal the fate of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 1980s.

Japan also banned exports to the country last year although the impact was seen as being small given limited trade flows.

Read the full stories here:
Russia implements North Korea sanctions
Associated Press
3/30/2010

Japan to extend sanctions against North Korea
Reuters
Chisa Fujioka
3/31/2010

Share