Electricity Resumption in Border Area, Temporarily

December 21st, 2006

Daily NK
Kang Jae Hyok
12/21/2006

Inside source from North Korea said each house in Musan, Onsung, Hoeryong in North Hamkyong Province, would receive electricity from the December 19th to 24th, commemorating Kim Jong Il’s mother, Kim Jong Suk’s birthday (Dec. 24).

In a telephone interview with the Daily NK, thirty-eight years old resident of Musan, North Hamkyong “K” said electricity supply was resumed on Tuesday. “Public service workers visited each house and asked them to use only one light bulb per household.”

K said with delightful voice “I’m so happy that I could eat in a bright house, and I could watch TV and VCR, too.”

In this year, North Korea’s electricity production has been worsened than ever that only army barracks, strategic facilities and rice mills were provided electricity.

Lack of electricity has been common since the mid-1990s economic collapse. And it becomes worse in winter, because hydro-electric power plants, which comprise most of North Korea’s electricity-production, cannot produce energy in arid season.

Therefore, North Korea in winter is once described as a “wilderness” by a Korean-Chinese visitor.

Some wealthy North Koreans are equipped with own electric generators, including Chinese solar-light collectors.

In North Korea, electricity is supplied on holidays such as Kim Il Sung’s birthday April 15, Kim Jong Il’s birthday February 16, or Party Foundation Day. Since 1997, Kim Jong Il’s mother, Kim Jong Suk’s birthday has become an official holiday.

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Frozen bank accounts hold $12 million from Hyundai

December 21st, 2006

Joong Ang Daily
12/21/2006
Choi Hyung-kyu, Kwon Hyuk-joo

Half of the $24 million in North Korean assets held in the frozen Banco Delta Asia accounts came from the Hyundai Group of South Korea, sources here told the JoongAng Ilbo yesterday. Other sources said North Korea will be able to access some of the frozen holdings next week, because the money had been proven “legitimate.”

The Macao-based bank froze the North Korean holdings last year after the U.S. government accused Pyongyang of financial crimes, such as money laundering and counterfeiting U.S. dollars. Since then, the North has made the unfreezing of those assets a precondition for the nuclear disarmament negotiations.

A U.S. source who requested anonymity said yesterday the $12 million was a part of Hyundai Group’s payments to North Korea for inter-Korean businesses. The money was wired in several payments, the source said. The payments were initially sent to other bank accounts that deal with North Korea, the source said, and then forwarded to the Banco Delta Asia accounts from there.

To deposit a large sum, an account holder must inform the bank in Macao about the source of the money and its purpose. The source showed North Korean account holders’ statements which claimed the deposits came from Hyundai.

Another source well informed about Banco Delta Asia affairs also said the money came from Hyundai.

“It is not easy to distinguish how much of the North Korean assets was earned from legitimate economic activities,” a senior South Korean government official said. “To sort the matter out, the United States and North Korea should meet and discuss the issue.”

In Beijing, O Kwang-chol, the president of the Foreign Trade Bank of Korea, has been meeting with U.S. Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Daniel Glaser since Tuesday.

Signs also pointed to a thawing of the freeze on the accounts in the near future. Other sources said Pyongyang has dispatched officials to the city of Zhuhai in China with papers necessary to withdraw the $12 million from the bank in Macao. They said access will likely be granted Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Hyundai Asan, Hyundai Group’s North Korea business arm, said yesterday it has not sent any money to a Banco Delta Asia account. The Mount Kumgang tour program began in 1998.

The company said it has wired $1 million a month to an overseas bank account designated by North Korea.

A senior official with Hyundai Asan said North Korea frequently changed the account. “I don’t know if our payment was later wired to BDA accounts or not, but I think that could be possible,” he said.

Hyundai Group provided $500 million to North Korea on the eve of the 2000 inter-Korean summit by wiring the money to a North Korean account with a foreign bank, but the sum currently frozen at the Banco Delta Asia accounts is not connected to that, the sources said.

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South powers up support for Kaesong

December 21st, 2006

Joong Ang Daily
12/22/2006
Ser Myo-ja

Amid the ongoing six-party talks and criticism that inter-Korean economic projects have helped North Korea finance its nuclear arms program, South Korea celebrated a cross-border power cable connection yesterday for the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

A ceremony to mark the connection took place yesterday inside the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas. Also yesterday, the nation’s top North Korea policymaker said the economic cooperation programs are crucial to maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula.

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Seoul to soon restore ties with Pyongyang

December 21st, 2006

Yonhap
12/21/2006

The South Korean government may resume its humanitarian assistance to North Korea in the near future as part of efforts to mend soured ties with the communist nation, the country’s point man on North Korea said Thursday.

“The government has a principle to resume the North-South dialogue at the earliest date possible,” Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung told reporters.

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Seems some DPRK traders support Kim Regime

December 20th, 2006

Daily NK
12/20/2006
Kim Min Se

Pride and confidence spread among armed forces, government officials and the rich in North Korea since nuclear test.

A 41-year old North Korean businessman, K, had a telephone interview with the Daily NK from Dandong, China, on Tuesday. During the interview, K described confidence in the regime. He said “Whether Americans do it (sanctions) or not, we Koreans don’t care. We now have nuclear weapons and we are pretty sure that we will win. Soldiers think so.”

When asked if ordinary people believe North Korea possessing nuclear weapons, K boasted “Everybody in (North) Korea knows that except for infants. We are not afraid of Yankees.”

K is a typical member of the North Korean wealthy class. North Korea’s upper class’s confidence after the nuclear test contradicts worldwide expectation of escalation of domestic disorder due to international sanctions.

K said that armed forces and ordinary people are convinced to defeat the U.S. Such attitude is opposite from the actual popular reaction of ignorance to the nuclear test.

While most of the population struggles to live, a small portion of North Koreans have earned fortune from trade with China or Japan. This newly created wealthy class is now a key supporter of Kim Jong Il and his regime.

Also, another interpretation might be that since the Chinese government does not restrict trade with North Korea despite the UN Security Council’s resolution, participants of the Sino-N. Korean trade are not damaged yet.

On people’s lives after the nuke test, K optimistically said “Everything is going well.” “Cost of rice is stable and there are plenty of goods at the market.”

And “Whether the international society punishes Korea, we would not worry if we keep normal trade relationship with China,” K assured.

K’s confident remarks prove that Kim Jong Il’s nuclear strategy works well, at least among the army, government and upper class in North Korea.

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Difficult to Recover British-American Tobacco Funds

December 20th, 2006

Daily NK
Yang Jung A
12/20/2006

Difficult to Recover British Funds Caught in BDA North Korea Accounts

In amongst the North Korean accounts that were frozen from Macao’s Banco Delta Bank (BDA) was joint funds from a British tobacco company which has been deemed difficult to recover.

The U.K. Financial Times reported on the 18th that the $7mn of the $24mn in North Korea funds frozen in BDA accounts is from Korean trusts and banks of which half the funds is estimated to from a joint account by British American Tobacco (BAT) and a tobacco company trading by North Korea.

BAT’s spokesperson Catherine Armstrong revealed in an interview with Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 18th “The money has been certified as legal so we’re very keen to get the money out of the frozen account.”

Regarding the amount of frozen funds, Armstrong said “As there are no substantial data, an actual figure cannot be revealed but I am aware it is nearing tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

Raphael Perl, a specialist at the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) said “We don’t necessarily know on its face that the North Korean tobacco company is not also involved in criminal activity” and revealed “As North Korea sells fake cigarettes on a large scale, every tobacco company in North Korea is being suspected of conspiring illegal acts.”

Perl said “Even in the case a company is internationally based, a company is not completely owned internationally but if a joint ownership, it is even more difficult to discern whether or not the transaction was legitimate.”

In another sense, as reports suggest that “The U.S. Administration told North Korea $12mn of the $24mn frozen funds appears to be unrelated to North Korea’s illegal actions,” others are cautiously anticipating progress from the six party talks as North Korea’s legitimate funds are released.

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DPRK Railway map: now on Google Earth

December 19th, 2006

Using various maps, legends and available photos, I have mapped out the entire North Korean railway system. Interesting highlights include special railway lines to large palaces in Sinuiju and on the east coast, the collection of railway lines around coal mines in the center of the country, and the railway line in Kaesong that crosses the DMZ to South Korea.

Download it to your own Google Earth here

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Kumgang tourism numbers not meeting expectations

December 18th, 2006

Mount Kumgang tour goal to fall well short of 400,000
Joong Ang Daily
12/18/2006

The number of South Korean tourists to a scenic North Korean mountain resort is expected to fall far short of the initial target of 400,000 for this year due to inter-Korean tensions, South Korean tour organizers said yesterday.

About 1.3 million South Koreans have visited Mount Kumgang since the communist North opened the area to outsiders in 1998 to earn badly needed hard currency.

The South Korean tour operator, Hyundai Asan Corp., had planned to attract 400,000 tourists to the area this year, but the number is expected to reach slightly more than half of the the target, company officials said.

The sharp drop in the number of tourists to the resort can be attributed to recurring tensions caused by the North’s multiple missile tests on July 5 and its first-ever nuclear weapons test on Oct. 9, they said.

“We had aimed for 400,000 visitors for the year, but the North Korean nuclear crisis caused a significant problem,” a Hyundai Asan official said, citing the North’s missile and nuclear tests.

According to Hyundai Asan, a total of 230,224 people, mostly South Koreans, visited the resort in the first 11 months of the year, and the number of visitors in December is not expected to be more than 10,000.

The North’s mountain resort is reachable from South Korea by bus within an hour.

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ROK scenario planning for DPRK power shift

December 18th, 2006

Donga
12/18/2006

North Korean Military: New Regime?  

If that happens, the report forecasts that the military is highly likely to control the government and independent units, such as the escort command, and the security command and the operation command will attempt to take control of the government by joining forces or individually.

Yesterday, Dong-A Ilbo obtained a report titled “North Korea’s Crisis Management System and Our Countermeasures” released by the information committee of the National Assembly. The report predicts that “we cannot rule out an abrupt collapse of the Kim Jong Il regime. But, given the neighboring countries do not have firm grounds for intervention, the fall of North Korea will happen gradually.” It was submitted to the committee on December 13 by three researchers of Peace Foundation, Cho Seong-ryeol, Kim Hak-rin and Kang dong-ho.

Kim Jong Il in Trouble in North Korean Emergency-

The report argues that a national crisis is likely to be caused when Kim Jong Il, the chief of the North’s Workers’ Party, the government and the military, is in trouble.

If that happens, the report forecasts that the military is highly likely to control the government and independent units, such as the escort command, and the security command and the operation command, will attempt to take control of the government by joining forces or individually.

In particular, it also expects Oh Geuk Ryeol, the 75-year-old operational director of the Workers’ Party who is considered to be the most powerful among Kim Jong Il’s cross associates, to act before others by utilizing his independent commanding authority and his elite unit equipped with advanced weapons.

The report says the first thing the North Korean military should do, after taking control, is to declare a national emergency in the name of the central military committee of the Workers’ Party, which is entitled to command and control all military power in the country according to Article 27 of the party rules. But the report also predicts that the national defense committee will be at the center of administration of power and that the new regime will maintain a group leader system temporarily.

Who Will Be the Acting Commander in Chief?-

According to the report, if the North engages in war with the outside world, the country is likely to shift an emergency control system with the commander in chief in its center, as it did during the Korean War.

Cho Myeong Rok, the 78-year-old director of the General Political Department of the Korean People’s Army, is highly likely to be appointed as a commander in chief by hierarchy. But, considering age and health, Kim Yeong Chun, the 70-year-old Chief of the General Staff of the Army responsible for military operation of the one million-strong forces, is the shoo-in, according to the report.

Establishment of the Succession System-

It has been analyzed that the establishment of a succession system is more urgent for Kim Jong Il than the overcoming of the economic crisis through reform and market opening or the formation of diplomatic ties with the U.S., since Kim is well aware that an emergency in the absence of the succession system will lead to a civil war.

For this reason, it says, chances are that Pyongyang will formalize the succession system internally in the first half of 2007, when internal cohesion following its nuclear test and the supportive atmosphere for the third-time succession of military authority to protect the vested interest of the “Military First politics” still remain.

The report also connects the gradual stabilization of the succession system and the resolution of the North’s nuclear problem. It estimates that Kim will demand approval of the succession system and massive economic assistance in return for denouncement of nuclear weapons, and that the Pyongyang-Washington ties will be normalized if Washington accepts the demand.

Korea Herald
12/18/2006

N.K. general to lead if Kim loses power

A top military commander is expected to take the reins in North Korea in the event its leader Kim Jong-il loses power during an emergency, a South Korean parliamentary report said yesterday.

The report on a possible North Korean crisis pinpointed General Oh Geuk-ryul, chief of central combat operations of the Workers’ Party, as the strongest candidate to take contingency leadership of the communist country.

The report was written by the Peace Foundation, a private think tank on security affairs commissioned by the National Assembly Intelligence Committee.

The report said if Kim loses control, it will trigger fierce power struggles among leaders of different military groups such as Kim’s security guard, the Army headquarters, the intelligence command and the combat operations department.

None of them are in position to take control of the entire military. Kim is known to have controlled all military forces through a system of checks and balances among the several independent military groups. Each separate group is directed by Kim, with no influence on one another.

Among the powerful candidates, Oh, 74, is expected to take the lead in mobilizing his well-trained soldiers equipped with the North’s most modern weapons systems, the report said.

In the event the North Korean crisis triggers intervention from outside forces, the new leadership could fall under Kim Young-chun, deputy marshal of the Korean Peoples’ Army, the report expected.

Kim, 69, is likely to lead the North’s military in fighting against any foreign interventionist forces although Cho Myoung-rok, another deputy marshal of the KPA, is higher in rank, it said. Cho, 77, was cited as weaker than Kim due to his age and suspect health.

The report also said Pyongyang’s crisis may lead to the development of a crisis management system instead of the collapse of the North Korean regime.

The new authority is expected to exercise a military-led collective leadership after invoking martial law throughout the country, it said.

With regard to the possibility of North Korean military aggression, a full-scale invasion of South Korea is unlikely to occur at the time of such a crisis although the North could trigger local conflicts in frontline areas, the report said.

The report advised that South Korea needs to prepare to deal with the North’s new leadership and to enhance military preparedness for any possible clashes.

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Luxuries for North’s elite keep on flowing

December 18th, 2006

Joong Ang Daily
12/19/2006

Despite United Nations sanctions aimed at preventing the North Korean government from buying luxury goods for its ruling class, government sources here said a North Korean trading company is still busy providing Kim Jong-il loyalists with their perquisites.

Tian Ming Trading Company, in the center of this former Portuguese enclave now with the same China-affiliated status as Hong Kong, says its main business line is carpets, and little more. Three office workers said there were no North Koreans at the company and that it has never traded with North Korea. The company’s president was out of town on business, they said.

But a source with close ties to the trading economy here said that Park Su-dok, a 53-year-old North Korean, is in Macao and obtained a visa as an employee of the company.

Another source said, “Tian Ming is a joint venture by North Korean and Hong Kong investors, and its main business is buying luxury goods from Hong Kong for shipment to North Korea.” He added that Tian Ming’s president, a Hong Kong resident, is buying luxury watches, gold products and expensive liquor at North Korea’s request, using a Hong Kong branch office for the purpose.

Other Macao government officials said 18 North Korean firms were registered in Macao as of late November, and 115 North Koreans carry Macao visas as employees. Twenty have become Macao citizens, they added.

Since Washington threatened to impose sanctions on Banco Delta Asia here, allegedly for helping North Korea launder cash from its alleged dubious business lines, some of those companies have shut down. Ten are still in limited operation, however, these government sources said.

Separately, a South Korean banker in Hong Kong told the Joong-Ang Ilbo that a North Korean businessman had visited him in an attempt to sell gold bars through one of the South Korean bank branches in Hong Kong.

The banker reportedly spurned the overture, although the transaction would not have violated any South Korean laws or regulations on North-South dealings. He said he simply did not want to get involved in such a deal given the international attention being paid to commercial dealings with North Korea. The banker suggested that the offer may have been a sign of the foreign currency problems North Korea is facing because of the UN sanctions and U.S. pressure on financial dealings with North Korea.

Banco Delta Asia has said that between 2003 and 2005, it had sold 9.2 tons of gold bars that it had purchased from the North, where gold production is estimated to be about 25 tons per year, mostly for export.

Wall Street Journal
12/18/2006
Gordon Fairlcough, p.A1

Close-Out Sale: North Korea’s Elite Shop While They Can

A North Korean businesswoman with heavy makeup and a bouffant hairdo studied herself in a mirror as she modeled fur-lined leather coats at a small store in [Dandong, China] this frigid northeast border city.

During a three-day excursion late last month, the woman also tried on shoes and looked at large-screen television sets before buying furniture and fresh fruit and heading home to Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital city.

The United Nations has called for a crackdown on luxury-goods shipments to North Korea as a way of pressuring the country to drop its atomic-weapons programs, which came under new fire after an October nuclear test.

If anything, the uncertainty about the flow of fancy goods appears to have whetted the appetites of some privileged North Koreans — whose impoverished country cultivates a Spartan socialist image.

In Dandong, North Koreans, many wearing lapel pins with a picture of North Korea’s founding dictator, Kim Il Sung, stroll through hotels and department stores. Signs are often written in Korean, with storekeepers advertising computers, karaoke machines and the erectile-dysfunction drugs Viagra and Cialis.

A few North Koreans have bought new cars at a Toyota dealership near the Dandong customs checkpoint, according to a salesman. One man paid about $50,000 in cash for a luxury sedan.

Gold is also gaining a following. Wang Xiaoju, a saleswoman at the jewelry counter at Xin Yi Bai Department Store, says North Korean women come in nearly every day, mostly to buy gold chains and other gold jewelry.

Women from the North also are frequent visitors to a riverfront spa, favoring milk baths and massages, according to staff there. A saleswoman at the Xin Yi Bai L’Oreal counter says North Koreans are regular customers. Among the big sellers: body sculpting cream for women who want to look thinner.

In the first 10 months of this year, Chinese exports of fur coats and fake furs to North Korea soared more than sevenfold from the year-earlier period, according to Chinese Customs figures. Exports of televisions and other consumer electronics were up 77%, while perfumes and cosmetics were up 10%.

Some North Koreans are even buying real estate in Dandong. One high-rise building, where three bedroom apartments go for nearly $100,000 each, has sweeping views of a decrepit North Korean village with crumbling cinder-block houses across the border. A North Korean buyer recently purchased one of the units with cash, according to the building’s sales agent.

“Life is quite comfortable” for senior party members, military officers and traders, who have prospered despite widespread shortages of food, fuel and medicine in North Korea, says Pak Yong Ho, a former high-ranking North Korean official who defected to South Korea two years ago.

North Korea’s Communist Party has long had overseas agents in Macau, Switzerland and elsewhere dedicated to maintaining supplies of luxuries for top military and government personnel, according to former North Korean officials. Their jobs, in the wake of the U.N. sanctions, could get much harder.

The U.N. so far has let individual countries decide which high-end products to block. Washington has barred U.S. companies from selling everything from iPods to Harley-Davidson motorcycles. But that move was largely symbolic, as there is very little direct trade between the U.S. and North Korea.

Japan, which has for decades been a source of luxuries for the North Korean ruling class, has banned exports of 24 fancy products from caviar and gems to watches and art.

But the key to whether the sanctions will work is in the hands of China, North Korea’s largest trading partner.

A steel-girder bridge here spans the Yalu River, connecting Dandong to the city of Sinuiju in North Korea. That has helped Dandong, whose name means “Red East,” become a popular shopping destination for North Koreans with money. It is unclear how much that will change because of the sanctions.

So far, China hasn’t disclosed what specific kinds of high-end exports — TVs or luxury automobiles, for instance — it will block. A Chinese foreign-ministry spokeswoman, Jiang Yu, has said the list “should not be allowed to impact normal trade transactions” between the socialist neighbors.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, whose own taste for expensive French cognac and other imported luxuries is well known, uses money and goods liberally in an effort to buy the loyalty of the elite, according to U.S. and South Korean officials. Some of these officials say that depriving the ruling class of its creature comforts could alienate them from Mr. Kim, long known as “Dear Leader.”

But many North Korea watchers and North Korean defectors doubt that the elite would revolt against Mr. Kim’s government, because their fates are so closely tied to his now. “Under this regime, the privileged have had a very good life,” says Kim Dok Hong, the second-highest North Korean official to defect. “If the regime collapses, the people they’ve mistreated will be looking for revenge.”

At the peak of the famine that killed more than a million North Koreans in the mid-1990s, Mr. Pak, the former government official, says his parents weren’t short of food. Their home had three refrigerators regularly replenished with imported provisions by the Communist Party. Mr. Pak uses a pseudonym to protect family members still in the North from government retribution.

“The elites have had more freedom to do their own business” since economic overhauls in 2002, says Yang Chang Seok, a senior official at South Korea’s Unification Ministry, which oversees relations with the North. “People have earned a lot of money from trading.”

These days in Pyongyang, members of the ruling class are ferried around in imported cars and live in well-appointed — and well-guarded — apartment complexes. Their children race around city parks on in-line skates and play American computer games.

Says Mr. Pak: “If you can afford to pay, there’s nothing you can’t get.”

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