Seoul Seeks EU Investment in Kaesong

January 26th, 2007

Korea Times
Lee Jin-woo
1/26/2007

Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung Friday told European businessmen active in South Korea that the government would try its best to guarantee stability and predictability at an inter-Korean industrial complex in Kaesong, North Korea.

“Construction of the Kaesong industrial complex has fallen behind schedule but will proceed as planned,’’ Lee said at a luncheon meeting held by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Korea (EUCCK) at a Seoul hotel.

The speech was given in English. Lee, who gained his master’s degree from the University of Manitoba in Canada and his doctorate from the University of Trinity College in Toronto in 1988, enjoys delivering speeches in English.

The minister said a power grid with the capacity of transmitting 100,000 kilowatts of electricity will be established at the Kaesong site in the first half of this year. Seoul has discussed the construction of a communication center with Pyongyang to expand the communication network there.

“The South Korean government will foster the best environment to make the Kaesong an attractive investment site,’’ he said. “We’re looking forward to seeing many European enterprises join the upcoming expansion of the complex.’’

Lee said the flow of exchanges and cooperation between the two Koreas has continued and even expanded despite the North’s nuclear test on Oct. 9 last year.

“You may wondering why South Korea is focusing on economic cooperation with the North while putting aside many better investment chances,’’ Lee said. “That’s because we believe economic cooperation is a short cut to ensuring peace on the Korean Peninsula.’’

EUCCK plans to carry out its second visit to the site in March. The chamber’s trip in 2005 was the first visit by foreign enterprises.

“Seeing is believing,’’ Lee said. “If you go and see the factories there, you’ll fully understand what I’ve told you today. I promise to assist your visit to the utmost to ensure that you have a memorable and rewarding experience.’’

On Wednesday, Lee, who took office on Dec. 11, made his first visit to the site.

About 11,200 North Korean men and women are working together with 800 South Koreans at the joint inter-Korean industrial complex. The total production in the complex last December alone was worth more than $10 million.

The complex plans to house 300 companies, which would hire as many as 70,000 workers, when power and water supply grids are completed in the first half of this year.

Currently, the EU accounts for more than half of foreign investment in South Korea and is the nation’s second-largest export market after China. It has provided humanitarian assistance worth about $430 million to North Korea since 1995.

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3 Million NK Refugees Expected in Crisis: BOK

January 26th, 2007

Korea Times
Na Jeong-ju
1/26/2007

If at least one member of a North Korean household moves to South Korea after reunification, more than 3 million from the North may head south if the two Koreas are reunited, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said Friday.

According to the BOK’s Institute of Finance and Economy, if such an exodus takes place in North Korea after reunification, the South may face serious economic consequences, the report said.

If Koreas adopt a German model, in which West Germany extended financial support to East Germany before and after reunification, South Korea would shoulder a total of $500-$900 billion in reunification costs. If the money is spent appropriately, it will take 22-39 years for North Korea to top $10,000 in gross national income, the report said.

The institute proposed South and North Korea try to reduce economic gap through economic cooperation programs. If the South supports the North through development programs, using its capital and the North’s cheap labor, it can reduce reunification costs considerably, it said.

“It is desirable for the two Koreas to designate special economic zones to reduce their economic gap and conduct programs to develop the North Korean economy,’’ the report said.

With the development programs, the South can spend much less than adopting the German model, the report said. The reunification costs will be cut to $300-500 billion, while the period for North Korea to see a GNI of $10,000 will be shortened to 13-22 years, it added.

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UNDP to adjust North Korea program, bolster audit and monitoring

January 25th, 2007

Yonhap
1/25/2007

The U.N. Development Program (UNDP), recently accused of unmonitored activities in Pyongyang that led to a large, unintended influx of cash to the regime there, announced Thursday that it will adjust the North Korea program and delay its implementation until approved.

But the US$17.91 million resource allocation made in the original 2007-2009 program will be maintained, it said.

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Korean Dramas Regulated, 109 Groups Dispatched

January 25th, 2007

Daily NK
Kwon Jeong Hyun
1/25/2007

Since last year, North Korean authorities have been attempting to cut off all kinds of capitalist culture. Hence, another extensive hunt for Korean videos and radio broadcasts continues on.

North Korean authorities formed “109 Inspection Team” consisting of authority officials, inspectors from the National Safety Agency and Social Safety Agency, who have been focusing on regulating the major cities for watching and selling foreign VCDs. As of this year, the regions for inspection has extended to the provinces, an inside source informed. The regulations seem to have become an annual event.

The source from North Korea said “About 50 people who were caught watching foreign videos in the district of Woonsan, North Pyongan and now are being investigated” and “The preliminary hearing for about 10 people with no connections or who could not offer bribes, also the people found to be directly circulating the videos has ended and are now waiting a sentence.”

During the 80’s, video tapes were controlled by intercepting with electricity and any family found with videos in their video players were individually restrained. However, many families with video players also had chargers and so this method was ineffective. Now inspector groups consisting of 10~20 people have search warrants to thoroughly check all parts of the home.

The source said “The people sentenced will probably get sent to the labor training corps but of these repeaters if any person has issues with ideologies or are condemned as responsible for selling the videos, then they will be sentenced to jail.” The source added “People who are sentenced to jail because of videos are normally imprisoned for 4~5 years, but many are released after 2~3 years on special occasions like Feb 16th (Kim Jong Il’s birthday) or April 15th (Kim Il Sung’s birthday).”

On a different note, the latest issue of Democratic Chosun (issued on January 13), the government paper, obtained on the 20th stated “Imperial activists are sticking to us from within until death in order to sow the seeds of capitalist” and ordered a firm response “We must stick to them (capitalists) and austerely cut them off.”

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Analysis of North Korea’s “Market Economy” I.

January 25th, 2007

Daily NK
Kim Min Se
1/25/2007

Since 2002’s 7.1. economic reform measures, North Korea’s markets have become most vital part of peoples life. North Korean market system operates from ‘general market’ with huge process chain to small local ‘yard market’ in the remote countryside. And, in between, there are always some brokers.

An importer buys goods from China and transports them through cargo trains or trucks to large cities in North Korea, such as Hamheung, Chongjin, Pyongsung or Nampo. Wholesale traders take those products and resell to local businesspeople. In North Korean jargon, such process is called “running.”

Usually imported goods from China or North Korean domestic ones take three steps of circulation; one or two laps of ‘run’ is added in case of mountain area.

Wholesale is mostly carried out by cars. Since oil and vehicles are not enough, sometimes wholesalers rent cars by themselves.

A forty one-year old trader working in Dandong, China, Kim, said that he purchases goods from Chinese factories firsthand. If the amount of import is huge, Kim uses freight. If not, a few trucks are fine for him. At maximum, Kim bought 60 tons of texture from China at once and resold it to North Korean wholesaler in one month.

In Hyesan, Yangkang province, 38-year old Choi, a broker of mainly Chinese cloths and shoes, sells his stuff to nearby Chongjin. Choi told the Daily NK “There are two types of so-called running; first run and second run. “Running” requires a lot of capital like money for vehicles. So the person must be patient and cautious when buying and selling something.”

According to the interview with Kim, using vehicle in wholesale business takes from 3.5 million NK wons (roughly 1,000 US dollars) to 35 million wons. The money includes not only car rental but also “transportation permit” application fee. Transportation permit is required when vehicle and personnel move inter-province, and costs relatively large amount of cash.

Kim keeps about twenty percent of total sales as his profit. The other 80% is comprised of original price of goods, car tax, gasoline and multifarious types of ‘extra expenses,’ or bribe.

The “first run” business is apportioned to a few with privilege in North Korea. Those who can earn cooperation from Security Agency and police are able to do the first run. Without bribery, it is impossible to obtain various permits that are essential for any businessperson.

In addition, to trade with overseas Chinese merchants, one must possess enough wealth and credit. Credit enables North Korean businessmen to buy goods in China with comparatively low price. Those first runners are, in most cases, wealthy North Koreans with ten thousand US dollars cash on their hand at any moment.

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North Korea denies U.S. allegations it misused U.N. development funds

January 25th, 2007

Yonhap
1/25/2007

North Korea on Thursday rejected a U.S. allegation that it misused funds from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), accusing Washington of conducting a smear campaign to increase pressure on Pyongyang.

The United Nations announced this week that an audit will be conducted of the UNDP operations in North Korea after Washington alleged it had funneled immense cash payments to Pyongyang.

The UNDP aid projects in North Korea “have been carried out strictly in conformity with the U.N. regulations and in a transparent way,” a spokesman for Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry said in an answer to a question by the Korean Central News Agency, the North’s official media outlet.

U.S. deputy ambassador Mark Wallace alleged last week that the UNDP’s operation in the North had been run “in blatant violation of U.N. rules” for years and that millions of dollars ended up in the hands of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. The UNDP denied the U.S. allegation, while U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, a South Korean, announced an external audit of U.N. programs on Monday.

“Nevertheless, the United States is kicking up another anti-DPRK racket over not much aid funds of the UNDP from the outset of the year to meet its dirty political aims,” the spokesman said.

North Korea said it will continue to develop its cooperative relations with the UNDP.

“However, it will not allow any attempt to politicize the aid project nor accept conditional or unjust aid at all. The U.S. will be wholly accountable for all consequences to be entailed by its ongoing reckless campaign against the DPRK,” the unidentified spokesman said.

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N. Korea urges implementation of inter-Korean economic accord

January 25th, 2007

Yonhap
1/25/2007

North Korea has called upon South Korea to implement an earlier agreement to help revive its light industry in return for tapping into the communist nation’s natural resources, a senior unification official said Thursday.

During Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung’s first visit to the Kaesong Industrial Complex since he took office in December, Ju Dong-chan, head of the North’s Kaesong development agency “asked the minister to honor the agreement, saying it is not an aid, but only swapping of natural resources and raw materials,” the official said anonymously.

In July 2005, South Korea agreed to provide the North with US$80 million worth of raw materials to help it produce clothing, footwear and soap starting in 2006. In return, the North was to provide the South with minerals such as zinc and magnesite, after the mines are developed with South Korean investments, guaranteed by the Pyongyang government.

But the agreement was never carried out as North Korea abruptly cancelled scheduled tests of two cross-border railways in May 2006. North Korea’s subsequent missile and nuclear weapons tests further clouded hopes to implement the accord.

“Lee agreed in principle to honor the accord, but he held the position it is more important to create a favorable environment for carrying out the agreement,” the official told reporters.

Asked about the North’s denial of reports that it scrapped plans to change its partner for tours of Kaesong, the official said it is purely a matter of business, which does not require the intervention of the government.

Just hours after Lee returned to Seoul from Kaesong, an unidentified spokesman for the Korean Asia-Pacific Peace Committee (KAPPC) said the North “has no formal agreement with the Hyundai side over the issue of tour of Kaesong.”

Despite its earlier contract with Hyundai Asan, North Korea requested a new deal with Lotte Tours Co. in 2005. However, the South Korean government said the change can happen only when Hyundai Asan voluntarily concedes or pulls out of the business.

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N. Korea Bans Domestic Use of Foreign Currency

January 25th, 2007

Korea Times
Lee Jin-woo
1/25/2007

North Korea recently banned the domestic use of all foreign currency in a desperate effort to get hold of U.S. dollars possessed by individuals amid strict financial sanctions imposed by the outside world, reports said.

South Korea’s Ministry of Unification that deals with inter-Korean affairs said it is trying to clarify whether the report is based on the truth or not.

According to the Dong-a Ilbo, a vernacular daily, the Stalinist state Wednesday announced a ban on its people from paying with foreign currency without getting prior approval.

The decision will be applied to all kinds of foreign currency including the greenback and euro as well as the Chinese yuan, it said.

“It seems Pyongyang is trying to overcome its shortage of foreign reserves by gathering what its people are keeping at home,” a North Korean expert was quoted as saying on condition of anonymity by the newspaper.

Those who wish to pay with foreign currency must convert their foreign money into a sort of gift certificate at designated money exchange spots.

Back in the late 1980s, the North maintained a similar regulation, but later withdrew the decision. The measure was shunned in its socialist market.

Shops in the downtown shopping district of Pyongyang, the North’s capital, have sold goods priced in both North Korean won and U.S. dollars.

With the reintroduction of the measure, the North Korean won-U.S. dollar exchange rate in the North’s black market plunged from 3,285 won to 2,800 won, according to the report.

The North’s official, but not internationally accepted, currency ratio is $1 to 143 North Korean won.

However, the decision is unlikely to influence the two inter-Korean projects _ the Kaesong industrial complex and the tourism project to Mt. Kumgang _ as Pyongyang has not informed Seoul of any decision to ban the use of foreign currency including the South Korean won at the two sites.

South Korean companies in the Kaesong industrial complex pay $57.50 per month to their North Korean workers.

The Unification Ministry has explained that most of the U.S. dollars paid in wages to North Korean workers have been used to provide daily necessities for the workers, not to benefit Kim Jong-il’s regime or its nuclear and other weapons programs.

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North Korea bites a golden bullet

January 24th, 2007

Korea Times
Donald Kirk
1/24/2007

Gold fever is rampaging through the ruling elite of North Korea in the quest for relief from seemingly incurable economic malaise exacerbated by more than a year as a total outcast from the international financial community.

Word from Pyongyang is that trading companies and even individuals are offering payments in gold for imports from across the border with China and also in barter deals for products imported from elsewhere. Gold also has become a form of currency in the internal reward system of payoffs and bribes manipulated by Dear Leader Kim Jong-il to guarantee the loyalty of high-ranking officials.

The rush to sell gold – and, to a lesser extent, silver – has sharply escalated in the 16 months since the US Treasury Department blacklisted Banco Delta Asia (BDA) in Macau, banning all firms doing business with US firms from dealings with that bank. The Treasury Department charged that the BDA had been the principal conduit through which North Korea was shipping counterfeit US$100 “supernotes” printed on a highly sophisticated Swiss-made press in Pyongyang.

It’s well known that the US ban forced the BDA to impose a freeze on North Korean accounts totaling $24 million, but less well known that the bank also stopped purchasing gold produced by North Korea’s historic gold mines, in operation, sporadically, since the late 19th century.

Output of the mines, in mountains about 160 kilometers north of Pyongyang, fell sharply in the late 1990s as a result of flood and famine but, with foreign expertise, has begun to pick up in the past few years.

The impact of the ban, moreover, goes far beyond a single bank in Macau. Although North Korea last spring sold $38 million in gold and silver in Thailand, Pyongyang has been frustrated in reviving its presence on the London bullion market, the world’s largest marketplace for precious metals, amid increased US pressure on the large international banks that are the major buyers of gold.

It was in the aftermath of the ban on the BDA that North Korea’s Chosun Central Bank coughed up the information required by the London Bullion Markets Association (LBMA) for listing as a “good deliverer” of gold. North Korea from 1983 to 1993 had been in the LBMA’s good graces, averaging a ton a month in sales to London buyers that included some of the world’s leading banks, but had slipped off the list after failing to keep up deliveries.

The fact that the Chosun Central Bank again is listed with the LBMA, however, is no guarantee North Korea will be able to sell its gold. The US Treasury ban on dealings with the BDA – as well as sanctions unanimously imposed by the United Nations Security Council after North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test in October – has spooked buyers in London.

While the LBMA disavows “political criteria” in deciding on eligibility for its “good delivery list”, an LBMA memorandum leaves no doubt how buyers are likely to respond to overtures from a country or company on an international blacklist. None of them, according to Stewart Murray, the LBMA’s chief executive, is willing to take delivery from a company or country that is subject to sanctions.

Or, as the LBMA memorandum puts it, “If, for instance, a bullion custodian considered that it was bound by national or international sanctions that were in force against a particular country, it would have to refuse to accept bars from a refiner in that country.”

The memorandum, moreover, does not mince words when it comes to stating the importance of a “good deliverer” rating. “Given the status of London as the world’s leading center for bullion trading,” it says, “the LBMA List has become the de facto world list of quality refiners and Good Delivery accreditation is a highly sought-after accolade.”

In recent years, “the List” – capitalized in the memo – “has grown primarily due to the listing of refiners in China and Russia” and now totals 77 refiners in 31 countries.

Investors see North Korea as competing on a world stage once sanctions are lifted. “What we’re doing is normal business,” said Roger Barrett, whose firm, Korea Business Consultants, operates in North Korea from headquarters in Beijing. By reviving old minesand developing new ones, he argued, “We’re creating jobs for people, in line with the UN basic charter, in line with economic growth.”

Barrett also believes North Korea may somehow get around the sanctions by finding new markets. “Why would you go to the trouble of going to London?” he asked. “They’re totally entitled to sell their gold.” The fact is, however, that London remains the place to sell gold in significant quantities on a regular basis.

Under the circumstances, Colin McAskill, chairman of Hong Kong’s Koryo Asia Ltd and the guiding light of the Chosun Development and Investment Fund, dedicated to investing in North Korea, accused top US Treasury officials of waging a campaign to make sure the ban on banks dealing with the BDA extends to gold and silver.

McAskill accused US officials, led by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Stuart Levey, under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, of “using coercion, innuendo and sheer force to intimidate banks from dealing with North Korea”.

Among the victims of the US campaign is one of Koryo Asia’s projects, the Daedong Credit Bank, the only foreign bank based in North Korea, set up primarily to deal with accounts of foreign firms and embassies in Pyongyang. The freeze of North Korean accounts in the BDA, according to McAskill, includes about $7 million funds of Daedong Bank customers.

McAskill avidly supports North Korean demands for the US to lift the ban on the BDA – a move that would not only open up the frozen North Korean accounts but would provide the opening needed for Pyongyang to trade in a wide range of products around the world.

The financial issue is assumed to have ranked at the top of an agenda discussed in meetings in Berlin between the chief US envoy, Christopher Hill, and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Kye-gwan. Hill, reporting on the Berlin talks in stop-offs in Seoul, in Tokyo and Beijing, seemed hopeful about “progress” in the next round of six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons, expected to open in Beijing next month, after the failure of negotiators to get anywhere in the last round before Christmas.

South Korean media said North Korea had agreed to shut down its five-megawatt reactor at its nuclear complex Yongbyon in return for the US promise of massive aid, the crux of the 1994 Geneva Framework Agreement that blew up in 2002 amid US charges of a separate, secret North Korean program for developing warheads from enriched uranium.

There was no assurance, however, that the US is ready to relent on the BDA or that the UN Security Council will consider lifting its own sanction – enough to dissuade banks in London from buying North Korean gold regardless of the US ban on the BDA.

McAskill believes the rationale for the crackdown on the BDA is flawed. He questions the validity of the counterfeit charge and, in any case, says most of the frozen funds are not those of the North Korean government, even though they’re tired up in North Korean accounts. “We want to get a breakthrough on the six-party talks by getting the sanctions eased or lifted entirely,” he said. “We’re at a very delicate stage.”

Whatever happens, McAskill sees North Korea as ripe for investment, with precious metals high on the list of potential exports. “North Korea wants to move back into legitimate business,” he said. “They have a wealth of minerals – gold, silver, zinc, magnesite, copper, uranium, platinum – that needs investment to extract.”

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Kaesong tour to have limited influence in ramping up peace mood

January 24th, 2007

Yonhap
Sohn Suk-joo
1/24/2007

North Korea on Wednesday opened the main street of its medieval capital city to South Korean visitors, including Seoul’s top unification official, for the first time in half a year.

The move raised hopes for providing an impetus for improving the inter-Korean relationship, which hangs in the balance since the communist country’s surprise nuclear device test in October last year.

But analysts cautioned the trip will likely have a limited impact on bringing the South-North Korean relations back to the pre-nuclear test level, and the fate of the six-nation talks on the North’s nuclear weapons program may hold the key to their economic partnership.

Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung and his entourage toured downtown Kaesong, the capital of the Koryo Dynasty (918-1392), which has been closed off to South Korean citizens since July 2006 in retaliation for the South’s refusal to allow the North to change its South Korean tour partner.

Lee’s trip came just a few days after North Korea notified South Korean officials that it withdrew plans to change its partner for tours of Kaesong, suggesting Hyundai Asan Corp., the operator of the tourism business at the North’s Mount Geumgang, will soon promote the city tour to South Korean citizens.

Some analysts were quick to interpret the reopening of downtown Kaesong as part of North Korea’s efforts to cash in on hard currency to improve its people’s lives. North Korea is expected to undergo yet another bad food crisis in March or April as United Nations sanctions over its nuclear weapon test are put in place.

In its joint New Year editorial, North Korea stressed it will focus on solving the economic plight facing its people.

“North Korea is eager for more economic gains, but it is very worried about the volatile political situation in South Korea ahead of the presidential election,” said Lim Eul-chul, a research professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

Lim, traveling with the unification minister in Kaesong, said the smooth operation of the Kaesong economic complex and the city tour will be very limited in exerting influence on improving the inter-Korean relationship.

“After all, the developments of the six-party talks will largely decide the fate of the inter-Korean relationship, so it is too early to be optimistic,” said Lim, who also made a trip to Pyongyang last week and talked with North Korean scholars and officials.

The latest six-party talks — involving the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia — ended in Beijing in December without any progress or a date set for the next round. The six-nation talks started in August 2003.

But envoys to the talks said the negotiations could resume in a few weeks, and separate talks between the U.S. and North Korea over the financial sanctions were likely to be held on Wednesday in Beijing, according to reports.

In Berlin last week, Christopher Hill, the top U.S. negotiator at the nuclear talks, and his North Korean counterpart Kim Kye-gwan reconfirmed the principle of the September 2005 agreement, which is to ensure aid and security guarantees for the North in return for its nuclear disarmament.

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