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KOTRA – KDI higlight DPRK’ growing trade volume

Monday, December 7th, 2009

The North Korean economy’s dependency on international trade is nearing 40 percent, a think tank reported yesterday.

According to the Korea Development Institute’s report on North Korea’s economy in the 2000s, North Korea carried out international trade worth $5.64 billion last year.

The cross border trade figure of $5.64 billion recorded last year is equivalent to about 40 percent of the North’s gross domestic product, which is estimated to be about $15 billion.

In the report, the KDI said that the figures show that North Korea’s economy, which the regime boasted as having the most independent structure in the world, is taking a form increasingly dependent on the outside world.

The report said that North Korea’s cross border trade volume has risen rapidly, mainly due to increasing imports, and that such developments have been essential to the country’s economic recovery.

Since 2000, North Korea has managed to post positive growth rates.

However, North Korea’s GDP per capita is thought to be hovering below figures recorded in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, before the country’s economic crisis began.

According to United Nation’s statistics, North Korea’s GDP per capita was between $600 and $700 for the 2007 to 2008 period.

In comparison, the country’s GDP per capita was ranged between $900 and $1,000 in the late ’80s and the early ’90s.

The KDI estimated that applying the rate at which the North’s GDP per capita has been increasing since 2000, the country’s GDP per capita is likely to be between $700 and $1,300 in 2012.

The report also said that although the North Korean authorities are moving back toward a more tightly controlled economy, the country’s is unlikely to meet the targets set for 2012.

In addition, the report said that recording a trade deficit of $1.5 billion last year — equivalent to about 10 percent of its gross domestic product — makes it appear that the country is going to have a hard time digging itself out of trouble by itself.

Of last year’s $5.64 billion trade figure, exports accounted for about $2.06 billion, while imports came in at more $3.57 billion. According to the KDI’s figures, the North’s cross border trading has been increasing at an average rate of 11 percent each year since 2000, when the figure was recorded at about $2.39 billion.

Along with the increase in trade volume, North Korea’s trade deficit has also increased rapidly since 2000.

Between 2000 and 2004, North Korea’s trade deficits were maintained below or just above $1 billion. However the figure rose sharply in 2005 to reach $1.38 billion in 2005.

The KDI said that the North’s authorities have been able to offset trade deficits through the large amount of overseas capital that has flown into the country since 2000.

So where is that capital account surplus coming from to finance the trade deficit? It is NOT coming from South Korea.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea trade dependency hits 40%
Korea Herald
Choi He-suk
12/7/2009

Posted in International trade, Korea Development Institute, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), Statistics, Trade Statistics | 1 Comment »

Inter-Korean trade sees second monthly increase

Monday, November 16th, 2009

According to Yonhap:

Trade between South and North Korea grew for the second consecutive month in October amid improving global economic conditions and eased cross-border tensions, customs data showed Tuesday.

According to the data provided by the Korea Customs Service, inter-Korean trade totaled US$172.6 million last month, up 5.9 percent from the same month a year ago.

Shipments to the North totaled $71.9 million in October, while those from the communist country came to a monthly record $100.7 million, the data showed.

This marked the second straight month of expansion since September when trade turned positive after declining for the previous 12 months.

See the September trade increase story here.

See analysis of the previous year here.

Read the full article below:
Inter-Korean trade grows for 2nd straight month in Oct.
Yonhap
11/17/2009

Posted in International trade, South Korea, Statistics, Trade Statistics | 1 Comment »

China obscures trade relationship wth DPRK

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

China has ceased publishing its balance of trade with North Korea. Since China is the DPRK’s largest trading partner, this story has significant implications for all those who study the DPRK.

According to Reuters:

China has stopped publicly issuing trade data about North Korea, veiling the potentially sensitive numbers about its wary neighbour under another category while the two countries seek improved ties.

Destination and origin statistics on China’s imports and exports for September issued on Monday gave no separate numbers for second straight month for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the formal name of the North, as they have long appeared in the tables.

The trade tables for coal, crude oil, oil products and cereals issued by China’s General Administration of Customs instead used another category, “other Asia not elsewhere specified”, which for those commodities at least appeared to cover exclusively trade flows between China and the North.

Analysts and officials have used Chinese statistics to gauge otherwise opaque ties between the two communist neighbours. But North Korea has stopped appearing in the Chinese data since last month, when statistics for August also avoided mention of it.

The change may help Beijing to obscure shifts in economic flows with the North, which relies on China for most of its trade and aid.

In the build-up to North Korea’s first nuclear test in Oct. 2006, the trade data showed China cut crude oil shipments to the North in September, although it was unclear whether the stoppage was a calculated gesture or due to more prosaic problems.

An official in charge of data services at the Customs Administration told Reuters that the change would last, but would not say why. Reuters and other companies buy the data.

“We’re no longer issuing trade data about North Korea,” said the official, who declined to give her name. “We’re not allowed to issue the data anymore.”

She declined to answer further questions, referring them to another data services official.

That official, Xu Xianghui, said the data could not be released because of a “technical fault”. But Xu said it was unclear if that fault would ever be fixed.

This is a rather blunt statement by the unnamed Chinese official. There was not even an attempt to offer a justification. The decision to cease publishing the data obviously originated at the top of the Chinese leadership and the employees at the Chinese Customs Administration were probably told to relay (exactly) the simple message delivered above.

I wonder how long the Chinese officials at the top sat around trying to think of an acceptable public justification before just giving up. I am trying to think of one now but not having much luck.

Lets hope that his policy is eventually reversed.

UPDATE (quasi-related) from the Choson Ilbo:

When Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visited Pyongyang in October, North Korea and China boasted they had opened a new era of cooperation. The two countries described their talks as “constructive” even though no palpable progress was made in the North’s nuclear issue. But according to a senior source in North Korea, one significant step was a secret agreement to restore intelligence cooperation.

No details have been disclosed, but it is presumed that this refers to cooperation between traditional intelligence agencies including North Korea’s External Liaison Department and Operational Department rather than in ferreting out and repatriating North Korean defectors. The source said the two sides put the agreement into writing to strengthen their defense against South Korea, the U.S. and Japan.

North Korea is said to have asked China to provide intelligence about North Korean defectors and anti-North Korean government activities in China, while China reportedly asked the North to cooperate on cracking down on drug trafficking and counterfeiting of dollars or yuan.

Read the full article here:
China hides North Korea trade in statistics
Reuters
Chris Buckley
10/26/2009

Posted in China, Statistics, Trade Statistics | 2 Comments »

Inter-Korean exchange down over 20% in 2009

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-10-19-1
10/19/2009

Trade between North and South Korea has fallen more than 20 percent during the first eight months of 2009. Between January and September, exchanges between the two amounted to 929.7 million dollars, 24.1 percent less than the 1.2243 billion dollars recorded during the same period in 2008.

Inter-Korean trade has grown steadily over the past several years, marking 1.056 billion USD in 2005, 1.35 billion USD in 2005, 1.8 billion USD in 2007 and 1.82 billion USD last year. 2009 was the first year in which inter-Korean trade numbers have fallen. According to customs officials, inter-Korean trade in August, at 136.62 million USD, only registered 84 percent of that seen a year prior.

Trade numbers have continued to fall over the last 12 months. During that time, 3,399 items were exported, with a net worth of 53.81 million dollars, while 3,005 goods were imported, worth 82.8 million USD. A trade deficit of 28.99 million USD for South Korea is likely to continue through December. Sixty-four percent of goods exported from North Korea were light industrial products, the large majority being textiles. Fishery exports also made up 14 percent, or 1.24 million USD, of the North’s products sent to South Korea.

The South’s trade deficit, hitting 1.8 million USD, has been ongoing for the last 11 months. Overall, however, trade has been declining, largely due to the international financial difficulties and North Korea’s most recent nuclear test. South Korea, in accordance with UN resolution 1874, has restricted the export to North Korea of 13 different luxury goods in response to the North’s second nuclear test. Seoul has agreed to ban the export of thirteen different luxury goods, including wine, liquor, cosmetics, leather goods, furs, rugs, pearls and other jewelry, electronic goods, cars, boats, optics, clocks, musical instruments, art supplies and collectibles.

That said, as the South Korean economy recovers from the current global financial woes, it also appears that inter-Korean relations may improve. With the recent reunion of separated families and other North Korean moves to reengage Seoul, it may be possible for inter-Korean exchanges to again grow.

Posted in Foreign aid statistics, International trade, Statistics, Trade Statistics | 1 Comment »

Graft Mars North Korean Trade

Tuesday, October 6th, 2009

Radio Free Asia
Junho Kim
10/6/2009

North Korea is launching a crackdown on official corruption in its key mineral export sector, a crucial source of foreign exchange for a country where millions go hungry and the ruling party has total control of resources.

“[North Korea] is currently restructuring mineral exporting companies, because such trading entities have been found to be corrupt and inefficient and involved in various abuses,” said the China-based representative of a company importing minerals from North Korea.

The source added that many importers dealing with North Korean exporters had been negatively affected by their lack of professionalism and reliability.

“The overwhelming majority of North Korean trading companies are involved in exports of minerals, so the need to revamp them is evident and understandable,” the source said.

More than 58 percent of North Korea’s U.S. $1.13 billion exports in 2008 consisted of minerals and mining products.

The restructuring would target companies with unexplained gaps in their financial accounts and those that embezzled funds during the export process, the China-based source said.

Investigation slows exports

North Korea is a key source of magnesite, a mineral used in steel-making, synthetic rubber production, and the preparation of magnesium chemicals and fertilizers.

A China-based ethnic Korean businessman surnamed Nam said Chinese importers are having trouble filling orders for molybdenum, a metal used to make heat-resistant aircraft parts, electrical contacts, industrial motors and filaments.

“For about a month, discussions on imports of molybdenum from North Korea to China were suspended at the request of the North Korean authorities, who asked their Chinese counterparts to be patient and wait a little more,” Nam said.

In an attempt to further tap abundant mineral resources, the authorities are attempting a clean-up of the mineral export sector, the China-based source said.

Following an investigation of corrupt and inefficient mineral-exporting North Korean companies, export quotas might be assigned to such companies, and those found guilty of abuse could be imprisoned, the source said.

Swiss-based mining venture Quintermina was recently formed to secure magnesia materials from North Korea, the company said on its Web site.

It said the magnesite resources of North Korea, an extension of the magnesite-talc belt from the northeastern Chinese province of Liaoning, China, are estimated at 3 billion tons, and capable of producing around 100,000 tons per year.

Posted in International trade, Mining/Minerals, Statistics, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

DPRK-China trade (Q1,Q2 2009)

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

According to Yonhap:

Trade volume during the January-June period totaled US$1.1 billion, down 3.7 percent from a year earlier and the first decline since 1999, the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) said in an emailed release that cited official Chinese data. The drop was in striking contrast with a 41 percent increase during the same period last year and a 16 percent gain in 2007.

North Korea was put under U.N. sanctions for its nuclear test in May, barring its weapons trade and strictly limiting cash flows into the country. The sanctions, however, do not appear to have affected North Korea’s trade with China, an official at South Korea’s Unification Ministry said.

Prices of crude oil, which account for a quarter of North Korean imports from China, subsided this year after steep hikes in 2007 and 2008, said Jeon Dong-myeong, a ministry official overseeing North Korean trade.

“It’s not a steep decline. The 3.7 percent decline in trade volume can arise from price differences,” Jeon said.

North Korean imports from China amounted to $750 million, down 8.4 percent, while exports increased by 8.2 percent to $352 million, according to KOTRA.

By item, North Korea’s crude oil imports showed the steepest decline of 54 percent, or $111 million.

Food imports slightly increased to $23 million, and fertilizer imports considerably grew to $11.9 million, close to the amount the North brought in during all of 2008, $12.7 million.

Despite the international sanctions on the country, North Korea’s trade with Germany gained by 46.53 million euros during the first half of this year, according to KOTRA. Citing Germany’s figures, it said trade volume was up 160 percent from the same period last year, and up 30 percent from the total trade volume the two countries registered for last year.

Read the full story here:
N. Korean trade with China falls slightly in first half of 2009
Yonhap
9/23/2009

Further information and requests:
1. Here is the PR of China’s Ministry of Commerce database where trade data is published (does not work well with Mozilla). The usual caveats apply.

2. I have given up on the KOTRA web page. Can someone please send me the KOTRA email mentioned in the Yonhap story?

3. Here are general stories about North Korea’s trading activities. Here are stories mentioning specific trade statistics.

Posted in China, International trade, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), Statistics, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

Tesco reports drop in sales to North Koreans in Dandong

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

According to Bloomberg, North Koreans in the Chinese city of Dandong have slashed purchases of ham, shirts, and candy at UK-owned Tesco:

At the Tesco store, Zhao said fewer North Koreans are coming in, and they’re spending less. Most North Koreans can’t freely cross the border, and only those with the ability to travel abroad shop in Dandong.

“Before this year, they would buy over 10,000 yuan in goods, now they typically only spend thousands,” she said. (10,000 yuan is about $1,460.)

Shopkeepers working within sight of the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge spanning the Yalu River that separates the countries said traffic is down by as much as half since May.

Fan Bo said he sells about 10 generators a month to North Korea, all to Chinese companies doing business there. “The North Koreans don’t need generators,” he said. “They don’t use electricity.” Mao Yifeng, a tire seller, blames the global financial crisis for the slowdown.

Over the course of half an hour on Aug. 12, two empty blue Chinese trucks crossed the bridge into Dandong. One diesel freight train, also Chinese, crossed to China from North Korea. The open door on one of its two cars revealed there was nothing inside.

Over 45 minutes the next morning, two empty trucks and three empty North Korean buses crossed into China. No trucks were seen heading into the North.

A souvenir salesman who only gave his surname, Huang, said he’s seen road and rail traffic on the Friendship Bridge fall by about half since North Korea’s nuclear test in May. “It was never busy, now it’s even less,” Huang said.

….Trade Aid

China is the North’s biggest trading partner. Its support for the regime can be gauged by the trade surplus it runs with the country, according to Nicholas Eberstadt, a Korea specialist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. That fell to $386 million in the first half of this year from $1.27 billion in all of 2008, as China’s imports of coal from North Korea hit the highest level in at least five years, China’s Ministry of Commerce data show.

“China is Kim Jong Il’s patron of last resort,” said Eberstadt. “If net transfers from China continue to shrink, it will be ‘back to the 1990s’ for North Korea. That can only be an alarming prospect for Kim Jong Il and his would-be successors.”

Official trade statistics, incomplete and not including goods smuggled by sea or across the 1,415-kilometer (880 mile) border, show two-way trade between China and North Korea fell 2.5 percent in the first six months of this year to $1.12 billion, according to China’s Commerce Ministry. Trade between China and South Korea during the same period was $67.6 billion.

Read the full artilce here:
North Koreans Spurn Tesco Ham as China Trade Withers
Bloomberg
Michael Forsythe
8/19/2009

Posted in China, Foreign aid statistics, International trade, Statistics, Trade Statistics, United Kingdom | Comments Closed

North Korea exports total USD $1.13 billion in 2008

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-7-22-1
7/22/2009

According to a report released by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), mineral products again topped the list of DPRK exports, accounting for 41.3 percent of goods sent out of the country last year. The KOTRA report, “2008 DPRK Trade Trends,” states that the North’s 2008 exports, totaling 1,130,213,000 dollars, increased by 23 percent over the 918.77 million USD-worth of goods exported in 2007.

With the exception of plastic and wooden goods, North Korean exports grew in all areas. Mineral products accounted for 41.3 percent; non-ferrous minerals made up 16.8 percent, textiles accounted for 10.6 percent; chemical plastics made up 7.6 percent; electrical and electronic machinery made up 7 percent; and animal products accounted for 3.6 percent.

Mineral goods were up 33.5 percent over last year, recording sales of 465.44 million USD. This sector has shown continuous growth over the last five years. In 2004, trade in these goods brought in 152.28 million USD; in 2005, 243.66 million USD; in 2006, 244.43 million USD; and in 2007, 349.58 million USD.

Since 2003, North Korea has concentrated on invigorating the light-industrial sector, and has emphasized the export of manufactured goods. However, last year, exports of mineral products and non-ferrous minerals combined to make up a total of 58.1 percent of all exports; the North has been unable to restructure its export sector or satisfactorily boost light-industrial manufacturing.

North Korea’s imports grew as well, to more than twice that of exports. Bringing in goods worth 2,685,478,000 USD, imports grew by 32 percent over the 2.023 billion in imports during 2007. In 2008, mineral products accounted for 25.9 percent of imports; fibers accounted for 11.9 percent; electrical and electronic machinery, 11.5 percent; processed food items, 8.8 percent; chemical and heavy industrial goods, 7.5 percent; and non-ferrous minerals, 6.6 percent. Import of fibers, processed food, and mineral products grew, while the import of animal products, vegetable products and automobiles fell.

Crude petroleum, the North’s largest import item, was imported exclusively from China, and was up 46.9 percent (414.31 million USD) over 2007 (281.97 million USD). However, due to the loss of other sources of fuel, overall imports of crude grew by a mere 1 percent.

Import of grains fell in 2008, recording only 86.24 million USD – a fall of 25.6 percent from the 115.86 million USD in grain imports during 2007. KOTRA explains that due to instability in the grain market, imports from China of rice and barley were halted in April, while corn imports were halted in August.

(Note: Here is the KOTRA web page. It is not a user-friendly site and I was unable to find the report in English.)

Posted in Agriculture, Food, Institute for Far Eastern Studies, International trade, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), Light Industry, Manufacturing, Mining/Minerals, Statistics, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

Bank of Korea releases 2008 DPRK economic stats

Sunday, June 28th, 2009

North Korea doesn’t release official economic data. Since 1991, the South Korean central bank has released its own estimates of the North Korean economy to fill the void. Its figures are derived from information provided by the ROK’s National Intelligence Service and other sources. The 2008 statistics can be downloaded here.

According to coverage by the Associated Press:

The North’s gross domestic product for last year was estimated at $24.7 billion, a 3.7% increase from 2007, Seoul’s Bank of Korea said in a news release. The impoverished North’s economy shrank 2.3% in 2007 and 1.1% in 2006.

The central bank said the North’s economic growth was mainly because of “temporary factors” such as favorable weather conditions that resulted in an increase in agricultural production, and the arrival of oil shipments under an international disarmament deal on its nuclear program.

The size of North Korea’s economy, however, was still about 2.6% of South Korea’s, the bank said, adding it was “difficult” to determine whether last year’s growth means the country’s internal economic conditions have improved.

The bank said the North’s agricultural production increased 10.9% last year compared with 2007. The production of coal, iron ore and other minerals expanded 2.3% and the manufacturing industry 2.5%.

…and BBC coverage:

Agricultural production rose nearly 11% in 2008 compared with 2007. And coal, iron ore and other mineral production grew 2.3% for the year.

UPDATE from Business Week:

The surprise underscores the tiny size of the North Korean economy, which could be easily swayed by such factors as weather and outside assistance. Just over two-thirds of the 3.7% growth came from the agricultural sector, and that is heavily dictated by weather. North Korea’s agricultural output increased by 10.9% in 2008 after falling by 12.1% in the previous year as it managed to escape from major floods and drought. Its 2008 manufacturing production also grew by 2.5%, compared with a gain of a mere 0.8% in 2007, thanks to heavy oil supplies by the U.S. and its allies as a result of Pyongyang’s agreement last year to begin dismantling its nuclear facilities.

Even as hope builds in South Korea about a recovery, with the U.S. and China showing signs of revival, prospects for North Korea’s economy are looking grimmer. North Korea’s nuclear test in May and the regime’s missile tests this year have led to an end to outside help and economic sanctions by the U.N. This heralds a poor performance in the manufacturing sector, which will almost certainly face an acute shortage of oil and electricity this year.

Pyongyang can’t count on the agricultural industry for any major contribution to economic growth in 2009, either. Even if North Korea manages to maintain the 2008 grain output of 4.3 million tons, which will be difficult to achieve unless last year’s exceptionally good weather is repeated, it won’t help the economy grow as it starts from a high base.

Those factors make North Korea’s economic growth last year an anomaly. “There’s no indication that North Korea’s growth engine has improved in any fundamental way,” says Bank of Korea economist Shin Seung Cheol. Even with last year’s extraordinary growth, North Korea’s gross domestic product was 1/38 of South Korea’s $935 billion and its trade volume was 1/224 of the South’s $857.3 billion in 2008. As long as North Korea’s reclusive leader Kim Jong Il refuses to open up his country, the gap is bound to keep expanding.

I have collected the most commonly referenced North Korean economic statistics here.

Read more here:
South Korea’s Central Bank Says North’s Economy Grew in 2008
Associated Press
6/28/2009

North Korea’s GDP Growth Better Than South Korea’s
Business Week
Moon Ihlwan
6/30/2009

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Construction, Demographics, Electricity, Energy, Forestry, GDP statistics, Light Industry, Manufacturing, Mining/Minerals, Statistics, Trade Statistics | 1 Comment »

Inter-Korean exchange, investment reduced as relations crumble

Friday, June 19th, 2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-6-16-1
6/16/2009

The amount of inter-Korean exchange has shrunk considerably this year, as tensions between the North and South continue to mount. According to the ROK Customs Administration’s inter-Korean trade office, cross-border transactions between January and April of this year fell 24.8 percent from 2008; trade amounted to 426.35 million USD, down from 566.92 million USD during the same period last year. South Korean imports were down only 9.5 percent, at 260.19 million USD, but exports to the North amounted to a mere 59.4 percent of the amount sent last year, recording 166.17 million USD. 54.9 percent of these goods (by value) traveled across the border by passing through Dorasan Station; 32.8 percent went through Incheon Harbor; 6.4 percent through Busan Harbor, 1.6 percent through Sokcho Harbor; and 1.1 percent passing through Goseong.

In April, with the North’s launch of a long-range missile in spite of the opposition of the international community, inter-Korean trade dropped to 69.2 percent of last year’s level, falling to 105.53 million USD. In fact, inter-Korean trade fell relative to the same month in the previous year eight months straight, beginning in September of last year.

With last month’s sudden nuclear test and South Korea’s subsequent joining of PSI, inter-Korean trade is expected to continue to wither in the latter half of the year. The amount of trade seen from January to April of this year is equivalent to 23.4 percent of the total trade for last year (1.82078 billion USD), and even if the current level of trade is maintained for the rest of the year, it is expected to amount to a mere 70 percent of what was traded in 2008.

Inter-Korean trade had previously been recording significant growth; in 1999, during Kim Dae Jung’s ‘People’s Government’, inter-Korean trade was worth only 328.65 million USD, but began to climb, growing more than five-fold by 2008, topping out at 1.82078 billion USD last year. However, after the launch of the current government, the amount of goods imported by the North from the South began to fall; exports to North Korea in 2008 were worth 883.41 USD, 145.15 million less than in 2007.

North Korean companies involved in processing-on-demand, agriculture and fisheries work have been part of Pyongyang’s trade ambitions, and these companies have also been hurt by the freeze in inter-Korean relations, with dozens of businesses facing closure, and many more severely hit by the North’s shrinking trade.

Posted in Economic reform, Foreign direct investment, International trade, Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), South Korea, Special Economic Zones (Established before 2013), Statistics, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

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