North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE 2: Here is a translation of part of the paper:

2011 North Korea GDP per Capita 720 dollars

HRI Speculation Model of North Korea GDP: Hyndai Research Institute developed ‘HRI North Korea GDP Speculation Model’ to speculate North Korea’s GDP per Capita using the ‘Child Mortality Rate Report’ of 2011 August. In order to enhance the explicability of the original ‘HRI North Korea GDP Speculation Model’, in this report, the model has been modified adding annual agricultural production rate into consideration.

Speculating 2011 North Korea‘s GDP per Capita: According to the calculations of the modified ‘HRI North Korea GDP speculation model’, North Korea’s GDP per capita of 2011 was 720 dollars, 32 dollars increased from the previous year’s 688 dollars. North Korea’s GDP per capita is less than 3% that of South Korea which is $23,749. Even compared to other Communist nations such as China($5,194), Laos($1,204), Vietnam(1,362), North Korea’s economy is significantly deficient. Nations holding similar average income with North Korea is Bangladesh($690) and Nepal($644) of Asia, and Zimbabwe($735) of Africa.

Background on 2011 North Korean Economy’s growth

Domestic background: North Korean Economy is analyzed to have experienced a concentrated growth due to government’s planning and showering of its resources. According to FAO(Food and Agriculture Organization), North Korea’s agricultural production total has increased 7.2% from 4420 thousand tons in 2011 to 4740 thousand tons in 2012. Also, North Korean government focused their resources on food preservation, building 100 thousand households, and resolving electricity problem.

International Background: Internationally, DPRK-China trade expansion, Gawesung Factory, International Society’s aids were the three main backgrounds. DPRK-China trade total experienced a steep increase of 62.4% from 34.7 billion dollars in 2010 to 56.3 billion dollars in 2011. Gawesung Factory’s trade was 17 billon dollars which is a 17.7 % increase from 2010’s 14.4 billion dollars. International Society’s aid towards DPRK spiked the highest of 9, 7710 thousand dollars since 2007, which is more than three times that of 2, 1780 dollars from the pervious year.

UPDATE 1 (2012-3-13): Marcus Noland weighs in on the report’s findings here.

ORIGINAL POST (2012-2-26): According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s per-capita gross domestic product probably expanded more than 4 percent in 2011 from a year earlier on an improved grain harvest and intensified state efforts, a report said Sunday.

The North’s per-capita GDP for last year is estimated at US$720, up 4.7 percent from $688 a year earlier, Hyundai Research Institute said in the report based on the communist country’s infant mortality rate and grain production.

The North’s 2011 per-capita GDP amounts to a mere 3 percent of that for archrival South Korea.

“The increase stemmed from better grain crops,” the think tank said. “Pyongyang also stepped up its efforts to meet its goal of building a strong and prosperous nation in 2012.”

According to data by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, North Korea’s grain production reached 4.74 million tons last year, up 7.2 percent from a year earlier.

Other positive factors were North Korea’s expanded trade with China, its staunchest ally and largest benefactor, the existence of an inter-Korean industrial complex in the border city of Kaesong and aid from the international community, according to the report.

Pyongyang’s trade with China surged 62.4 percent on-year to $5.63 billion last year, the report said.

I have been unable to locate an original copy of this report.  If you have a copy please send it to me.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s per-capita GDP grows 4.7 pct in 2011: report
Yonhap
2012-2-26