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Chinese Entrepreneurs Poised to Pounce on North Korean Border

Thursday, March 8th, 2007

Bloomberg
Bradley Martin, Allen Cheng
3/6/2007

Chinese entrepreneur He Ho was burned by his first North Korean investment, a bakery in the shabby border city of Sinuiju. He lost his entire $20,000 when the plan to make the city a special economic zone stalled in 2003.

If another opportunity comes along, though, “I’ll be the first to go in,” the 34-year-old said in an interview in Dandong, the bustling Chinese city facing Sinuiju across the Yalu River. “North Korea’s a good investment because so many things are lacking.”

Business executives in Dandong, one of the main conduits for trade in and out of North Korea, see opportunity in the recent six-nation agreement to end Kim Jong Il’s nuclear-weapons program. They think the 65-year-old North Korean leader will now focus on fixing his country’s nearly flattened economy and may revive plans for a special economic zone — an area designed to promote foreign investment, with fewer rules and regulations than elsewhere in the country — on the western border with China.

“Most of North Korea’s trade with China is via Dandong, so a special zone in this corridor could make sense,” said Marcus Noland, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “This could be the North Korean equivalent of the Chinese coastal SEZs in the early years of the Chinese reform.”

No Guarantee

There’s no guarantee against another disappointment for entrepreneurs like He Ho, said Peter Beck, Seoul-based Northeast Asia project director for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization that works to resolve crises around the world.

“The eternal optimist in me hopes that Kim will see the light and recognize the direction in which he needs to lead the economy,” Beck said in a telephone interview. “But the jury’s still out.”

At the same time, “the North Koreans have been talking about putting a special economic zone in the far northwest aimed at China for a decade,” said the Peterson Institute’s Noland. “If they get the politics right, this venture could work.”

China is North Korea’s top trading partner, with 2006 exports of $1.23 billion and imports of $468 million, according to its Ministry of Commerce.

A little over a year ago, Kim visited six booming Chinese cities, including the special economic zone of Shenzhen, bordering Hong Kong. North Korea’s Central News Agency described the nine-day trip as a visit to places “where the cause of modernization is being successfully carried out.”

Executives’ Speculation

Business executives in Dandong speculate that North Korea will develop a new zone in Cholsan County, a peninsula on the east side of the mouth of the Yalu some 50 to 60 kilometers (31 to 37 miles) south of Dandong and Sinuiju. China’s commerce and foreign ministries and North Korea’s embassy in Beijing didn’t respond to faxed requests to comment on their plans.

In 1991, North Korea built a special economic zone at Rajin-Sonbong, in the remote northeast of the country, which has failed to attract much foreign investment because of its location. Another zone near the southern border at Gaeseong, only 60 kilometers from Seoul, has proven more popular, especially with South Korean manufacturers in search of low-cost labor.

In 2002, North Korea announced plans for the zone in Sinuiju, which would have included export factories and casinos to lure gamblers from China. Kim named Dutch-Chinese businessman Yang Bin governor of the zone. China, which hadn’t given its approval, squelched the plan by arresting Yang and jailing him in 2003 on charges of fraud and illegal land use.

Strained Relations

Kim’s test of a nuclear device in October, which strained relations with the Beijing government, didn’t halt commerce on the border, according to Shen Yuhai, general manager of Dandong Jade Ocean Trade Co. “We didn’t stop trading at any time,” he said in a recent interview.

Shen’s office overlooks a busy parking lot where Chinese customs officials examine trucks departing neon-lit, high-rise Dandong for the run-down and darkened Sinuiju.

The trucks cross on the Friendship Bridge’s single lane in the morning with manufactured goods and return in the evening, either empty or carrying minerals, silkworm cocoons and seafood, Shen said. Four trains a week cross in each direction, connecting the North Korean capital of Pyongyang with Beijing.

China is supplying its neighbor with “daily necessities, home electrical appliances and, in this season, farming tools and chemical fertilizer,” said Shen.

While business is booming, he said he’s still cautious about the risks. He requests payment in yuan, dollars or euros, not North Korean won, and accepts bank transfers only after business relations have been established.

Even then, he said, “sometimes we are cheated.”

–With additional reporting by Hideko Takayama in Tokyo and Lee Spears and Dune Lawrence in Beijing.

For a copy of a list of banned goods to North Korea: http://www.state.gov/t/isn/76138.htm

Posted in Agriculture, China, Foreign direct investment, International trade, Sinuiju Special Administrative Region, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

Outlook for Inter-Korean Business Bright

Wednesday, March 7th, 2007

Korea Times
Park Hyong-ki
3/7/2007

The outlook for inter-Korean trade this year seems bright, as North Korea agreed to dismantle its nuclear weapons programs at the six-party talks in Beijing last month.

According to a survey conducted by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), about 45 percent of South Korean companies doing business with North Korea were optimistic that the volume of inter-Korean trade will grow this year. The survey was conducted on 150 firms in February.

Some 35 percent believe that the bilateral trade will remain the same as last year’s, while only 15 percent showed negative responses toward this year’s trade, saying that the volume will “drastically” decrease.

Only two companies said they will pull out of North Korea this year, while five companies were undecided.

Last year, inter-Korean trade amounted to about $1.3 billion, up 28 percent from 2005. Key trading commodities were agricultural, chemical and textile products.

Despite North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests as well as chilly inter-Korean relations last year, South Korean companies operating in the Kaesong Industrial Complex saw their sales grow 69 percent to $298 million.

The Kaesong site is one of the major cross-border projects symbolizing economic ties between the two Koreas, which utilize North Korea’s cheap labor and South Korea’s technological skills.

The Ministry of Unification is hoping to attract about 2,000 manufacturers to Kaesong by 2012. Currently, there are 55 South Korean firms operating in the joint economic zone, which account for 22 percent of overall South-North business, according to the trade association.

The other joint business _ the Mt. Kumgang tour managed by Hyundai Asan _ suffered from the aftermath of North Korea’s nuclear weapon test. The tourism project recorded only $57 million in sales, down 35 percent from the year before.

Specifically, a total of 477 South Korean companies participated in inter-Korean trade last year, down from 523 firms in 2005, due to heightened risks following Pyongyang’s nuclear test.

About 44 percent of those surveyed said that the test had negatively affected their business with the North. The report showed that only 39 percent reaped a “little” profit last year while doing business with North Korea.

Half of firms upbeat for North trade
Joong Ang Daily
3/8/2007

Almost half of South Korean companies doing business with North Korea said they have a bright outlook for inter-Korean trade this year due to expectations for better ties with the North, a poll said yesterday.

According to a survey of 67 companies conducted by the Korea International Trade Association, 45 percent of the respondents said inter-Korean trade will likely increase this year. Thirty-five percent expected trade to remain at the same level as last year while 15 percent said it will likely decline.

The poll also said 75 percent of local companies operating in the industrial park in the North’s border city of Kaesong had an optimistic outlook for trade. The industrial complex, mainly for smaller South Korean firms, is considered a model for reconciliation and cooperation between the two Koreas. Currently, 21 garment and other labor-intensive South Korean plants are operating there, employing about 11,000 low-paid North Korean workers.

The survey said among the firms that forecast inter-Korean trade to rise, 17 percent said their continued trust in North Korean firms was the reason for their upbeat outlook, while 16 percent and 14 percent said it was a rise in new orders and expectations for inter-Korean reconciliation. The survey was conducted before a deal on dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program was reached, reflecting that local firms have maintained a positive view toward inter-Korean trade. The agreement calls for Pyongyang to shut down and disable its main nuclear reactor and dismantle its atomic weapons program.

Posted in Foreign direct investment, International trade, Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), Korea International Trade Association (KITA), Mt. Kumgang Tourist Special Zone, South Korea, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

Shinuiju Customs Strictly Controlled by North Korean Authorities

Monday, March 5th, 2007

Daily NK
Kim Min Se
3/5/2007

North Korea customs at Shinuiju is under strict control by Central Committee of North Korea Workers Party.

An inside source from Shinuiju said on the 4th, “Authorities are currently undergoing investigations at Shinuiju customs, looking for tax evasions and illicit acts. The parties subject to these crimes include customs officers at Shinuiju customs and merchants engaging in North Korea-China trade.”

The source added that the investigations had virtually terminated North Korea-China trade between Shinuju and Dandong.

Shinuiju customs is critically important for North Korea as 80% of food and daily necessary goods between North Korea and China are imported and exported from here.

According to Kim Young Hee (pseudonym), a North Korea-China tradeswoman in Shinuiju, “Trade merchants have given up on trade and are in a state of panic because of authorities making investigations at Shinuiju.”

Kim said “At times like this, keeping is a low profile is the way to survive” and expressed her concern, “They have made orders to arrest at least 10 people. Who knows, anyone could be unlucky and caught.” She said “Like there is any trade merchant who does not engage in some sort of illegal act” and retorted “Simply obtaining a permit from authorities is generating money.”

“Prior to authority investigations, on average 50~100 cars would pass through Shinuiju-Dandong, per day. Now the figures have drastically reduced with only 5~10 cars passing through” she said.

Kim continued “There is not an article that falls through the cracks of authority officers. All goods approved by customs, whether it be minerals to seafood is confirmed by authorities… All things are left up to the hands of authority officials.”

On the other hand, the source also informed that despite recent investigations placing trade between North Korea and China in a state of lull, apparently counteracting effects such as dramatic rises in Shinuiju markets have not yet occurred.

Posted in Black markets, China, Economic reform, International trade, Trade Statistics, Worker's Party | Comments Closed

S. Korea Refuses North’s Request for Restored Aid

Saturday, March 3rd, 2007

washington Post
3/3/2007

South Korea on Friday added pressure on North Korea to comply with an international disarmament agreement, refusing the impoverished nation’s demand to restore full aid shipments until after its main nuclear reactor is shut down.

At the first high-level talks between the two Koreas since the North’s underground nuclear test in October, the communist nation “agreed to make joint efforts for a smooth implementation” of its pledge last month to take initial steps toward dismantling its atomic program, according to a final statement.

The North and South also agreed to resume family reunions of relatives split by their border and planned test runs of railway lines between the countries.

North Korea and the International Atomic Energy Agency have agreed on March 13 as the starting date for a two-day visit by the agency’s chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, U.N. officials said Friday. The officials asked for anonymity because they were not authorized to reveal specifics of the trip, which is expected to help alleviate some misgivings that the unpredictable regime might renege on its agreement to shut down its nuclear facilities.

This week’s meetings in Pyongyang were part of the historic reconciliation launched between the Koreas since their leaders met in their first and only summit in 2000. The countries remain technically at war because the cease-fire that ended the 1950-53 Korean War has never been replaced by a peace treaty.

But attempts to bring the countries together have been complicated since 2002, when Washington accused North Korea of secret uranium enrichment efforts that the Bush administration said violated an earlier disarmament deal.

The situation deteriorated further last July when North Korea test-launched a series of missiles, prompting South Korea, one of the North’s main sources of aid such as rice and fertilizer, to put the shipments on hold.

Relations worsened after North Korea’s Oct. 9 nuclear test. But a breakthrough came last month after a revival of six-nation nuclear negotiations — including China, Japan, Russia, the United States and the two Koreas — in which the North pledged to make moves toward abandoning its nuclear program.

Two Koreas agree on fertilizer aid, reunions
Joong Ang Daily
Ser Myo-ja
3/3/2007

A May reunion of some family members separated since the Korean War and the resumption of fertilizer aid to North Korea are among the agreements the two Koreas announced yesterday in Pyongyang.

Video conference calls will take place March 27 to 29, and the face-to-face reunions will happen in early May at the Mount Kumgang resort in North Korea, according to Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung and his North Korean counterpart, Kwon Ho-ung.

The two released a joint statement yesterday wrapping up their four-day meeting. The reunions will be the 15th held; the last round took place in June of last year.

In the talks, which had been stalled since North Korea tested a missile in July, the two Koreas also agreed to quickly resume a project to build a permanent reunion center. Working-level Red Cross officials from both countries will meet Friday at Mount Kumgang to discuss it.

More Red Cross talks are scheduled April 10 to 12 at the same venue to address issues associated with “those who have gone missing since the Korean War.” The term refers to the South Korean war prisoners and kidnap victims still alive in the North.

Although there was no specific mention of rice and fertilizer aid in the statement, Mr. Lee said Seoul will provide them as it has done in the past. Speaking to journalists after wrapping up the talks, Mr. Lee said, “The North will fax its request for fertilizer aid, and the South will provide it accordingly.” He added that “spring is coming fast, so we probably need to hurry.” Seoul has been providing an average of 150,000 tons of fertilizer, used in spring farming, per year. It will provide 300,000 tons this time.

According to the pool report from North Korea, Mr. Lee also said “the matter about rice will be discussed at the economic talks in April and an official decision will be made there.”

The two ministers agreed to expand economic cooperation ― including finalizing of 400,000 tons of rice aid ― during economic talks April 18 to 21 in Pyongyang.

“Since we agreed to meet in Pyongyang in April for economic talks, we will be able to discuss rice aid, taking into account how far the North implemented the Feb. 13 nuclear agreement,” a South Korean official said on the condition of anonymity.

He was referring to the agreement reached last month at the six-nation nuclear talks, in which Pyongyang promised to shut down its main nuclear facility within 60 days in return for aid and economic assistance from other countries.

The two Koreas also agreed to conduct test-runs of inter-Korean railroads before the end of June, as soon as both sides’ military arms are comfortable with the safety measures in place. On March 14 and 15, economic committee representatives will meet in Kaesong to address the plan. The military guarantee is the key for the trains to cross the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas.

Mr. Lee and Mr. Kwon agreed the next round of ministerial meetings will take place in Seoul for four days starting May 29.

Posted in Civil society, Foreign aid statistics, International Aid, Mt. Kumgang Tourist Special Zone, South Korea, Special Economic Zones (Established before 2013) | Comments Closed

Russia to reopen trade talks with NK next month

Wednesday, February 28th, 2007

Yonhap
2/28/2007

Russia and North Korea will resume meetings of their trade and economic cooperation committee late next month, ending an over six-year suspension, Russian government officials here said Wednesday.

The joint panel’s last meeting was held in Pyongyang in October 2000, the officials said.

The upcoming meeting, the fourth of its kind, will be held in Moscow from March 22-23, and discussion will focus on Pyongyang’s financial debt to Moscow, according to the officials.

The North’s debt reportedly amounts to US$8 billion dollars, and a considerable part of it is expected to be written off.

Russia, N. Korea to discuss debt payment, other issues in Moscow
Novosti (Hat Tip DPRK Studies)
2/27/2007

Russia and North Korea will meet March 22-23 in Moscow to discuss debt repayment by the reclusive regime and other economic matters, a Russian official said Tuesday.

Russia and North Korea agreed February 27 on a timeframe for the intergovernmental bilateral commission on economic, scientific and technical cooperation to hold its first session since 2000, Yevgeny Anoshin, press secretary of the Russian half of the commission, said.

Konstantin Pulikovsky, the former presidential envoy in the Far Eastern federal district and now head of the Russian technical standards body, Rostekhnadzor, will lead the commission on behalf of Russia, Anoshin said.

“The intergovernmental commission will yield real results only if Russia’s and North Korea’s finance ministries find during February an acceptable solution to the repayment of Pyongyang’s debt to Russia,” Pulikovsky earlier said.

According to Russian experts, North Korea owes more than $8 billion to Russia, including interest.

In addition to the debt repayment, the commission is expected to focus on Korean labor in Russia, plans to continue building the trans-Korean railroad and connecting it to the Trans-Siberian rail, and the possibility of delivering and refining Russian crude in North Korea.

Representatives of Russia’s economics, transport and finance ministries and the rail monopoly Russian Railways will attend the commission’s session, Anoshin said.

Posted in International Aid, International trade, Russia, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

Key facts on relations between North and South Korea

Monday, February 26th, 2007

Reuters (Hat tip DPRK studies)
2/26/2007

Senior officials from South and North Korea resume talks on Tuesday, seven months after dialogue broke down in acrimony over Pyongyang’s missile tests.

Following are key points in the ties between the two:

STILL AT WAR

– An armistice ending the 1950-53 Korean War dominates the relationship between the two Koreas. Nearly 1.2 million North Korean soldiers and South Korea’s 680,000 troops remain in a tense military standoff despite political and commercial ties that have warmed since 2000.

– The two have enough missiles and artillery pointed at each other to largely destroy major cities on both sides of the Korean peninsula.

POINTS OF EXCHANGE

– An industrial park in Kaesong just a few minutes’ drive from the heavily-fortified border is home to 21 companies employing about 12,000 North Korean workers.

– About 1.4 million South Koreans have visited the Mount Kumgang resort in the North just above the border on the east since the tours began in 1998. Roughly a quarter of a million made the visit in 2006 even as tension spiked following the North’s missile and nuclear tests.

– About 102,000 people crossed the border last year, not including Kumgang tourists and most of them South Koreans visiting the North for business. The total exchange of people was 269,336 as of the end of 2006.

TRADE

– Cross-border trade was $1.35 billion in 2006 up from $1.05 billion a year ago, largely from the strength of the Kaesong industrial park.

HUMANITARIAN AID

– South Korea has supplied between 200,000-350,000 tonnes of fertiliser a year to the North since 2000.

– It has also shipped up to 500,000 tonnes of rice a year to the North in the form of low-interest, long-term loans. Food aid has been suspended since the North’s missile tests in last July.

REFUGEES, PRISONERS OF WAR AND ABDUCTEES

– South Korea believes more than 1,000 of its people are still alive in the North either as civilian abductees or as prisoners captured during the Korean War.

– North Korea has said 10 South Korean POWs and 11 civilians were alive there.

– More than 1,000 North Koreans each year have fled hunger and persecution in the North and sought refuge in the South. In the first six months of last year, 854 arrived in the South for a total of 8,541. (Source: South Korean Unification Ministry, Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee, Reuters)

Posted in Economic reform, Emigration, Emigration statistics, Foreign aid statistics, Foreign direct investment, International Aid, International trade, Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), Military, Mt. Kumgang Tourist Special Zone, South Korea, Special Economic Zones (Established before 2013), Statistics, Tourism, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

Deliver Humanitarian Aid Directly to the Starving Affected Areas

Tuesday, February 20th, 2007

Daily NK
Kang Jae Hyok
2/20/2006

Every year when spring arrives, North Korea faces yet another food crisis. 10 years after the “march of suffering,” North Korea has still made little change.

The greatest change that has occurred is by the North Korean people. The most of North Koreans have surpassed the ‘march of suffering’ and have survived by relying on themselves

In comparison to last year, the Korea Rural Development Administration (RDA) estimated that North Korea had experienced a loss of 1.8% (60 thousands tons) in agricultural production at 4.48 million tons of cereal. The World Food Program (WFP) also predicted similar figures at 4.3 million tons.

On the other hand, a national North Korea aid organization Good Friends reported that only 2.8 million tons of agricultural production had been made and that if any less than 1.5 million tons of food aid was supported, North Korea would be faced with another severe food crisis.

In the 90’s foreign aid could block mass starvation

During the “march of suffering” that began in the mid-90’s, food distributions were suddenly terminated. Nonetheless, people went on working, starving, believing that food distributions would begin once again.

However, one month passed then two, and still the distributions did not resume. In the end, the number of deaths from starvation began to arise. Yet, North Korean authorities did not respond with any countermeasures. As a result, in 3~4 years, 3mn North Korean citizens died of starvation.

Nonetheless, the tragic mass starvation that occurred at the time could have been stooped if it weren’t for the irresponsible acts of North Korean authorities. We can view this by analyzing the figures denoting the amount of aid supplied from 1995~1999.

Year   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999
Production of food
         3490   2500   2680   2830   4280
Aid from FAO
           980   1070   1440   1490   1190
Aid from S.Korea
           960   1050 1630   1030 1070
Food distributions in North Korea
         4450 3550   4120 3860 4450
       ~4470 ~3570 ~4310 ~4320 ~5476
Death rate
               615    1704    549
         (Unit: 1,000 tons, million persons)

Table of North Korea’s food production and foreign aid in the 90’s in comparison to the death rate. (Good Friends 06.12.22)

According to the table above, South Korea and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) aided North Korea with 2mn tons of food annually from 1995~1999.

If we consider that only 10,000 tons of food is needed to provide the whole of North Korea a day, then there would be no reason for a shortage in food distributions with a total of 3.7mn tons of food aid being supplied. According to the table above, annual aid provided to North Korea was 3.55mn tons at the minimum and 4.45mn tons maximum. This equates on average at 4.09mn tons of supplies.

However, during this period 3mn people died of starvation and 30mn people defected from North Korea. Contrary, there has never been a time where so much foreign aid was supplied to North Korea. Why then at a time where greatest aid was given to North Korea, was there the greatest number of deaths?

One of the essential reasons behind this occurrence was the fact that foreign aid never reached the provinces of North Hamkyung, Yangkang and Jakang where food was most needed. If food aid had been distributed to the areas most dire of starvation, then at the least, this incident would not have occurred.

At the time, most of the aid was distributed preferentially to soldiers, authorities and powerful ministers in Pyongyang. On the whole, aid to North Korea had been sent via ship through Nampo, Haeju and Wonsan harbor, then supplied to Pyongyang and South Pyongan province.

During the 90’s, transportation of cargo was practically immobilized due to the shortage of electricity and lack of fuel which ultimately led to the suspension of locomotives. On the whole, goods are transported via railroad, however, in the 90’s, both passenger and freight trains had come to a halt.

Basically, it takes about a fortnight to travel return, from Wonsan, Gangwon province to Najin, North Hamkyung on train 21. The Pyongyang-Tumen River train which departs from Pyongyang to Sunbong, North Hamkyung on train 1, also takes more than 10 days travel return.

Back then, it took twice as long to for a freight train to reach its destination in comparison to a passenger train. 10,000 tons of foreign aid that arrived at Wonsan harbor took 2~3 months to transport from North Hamkyung to Chongjin. In other words, it would take more than 2 years to distribute 100,000 tons of food to Wonsan in Gangwon province to Chongjin in North Hamkyung province. Hence, it is pointless to rely on railroad to distribute goods.

Losses incurred while transporting aid

Further, 30~40% of goods go missing while being transported. Every time a cargo train stops, guards responsible for the goods sell rice to traders at wholesale prices so they can use the profits to live. Also, street kids and thieves often steal the goods so that the intial 1,000 ton of rice is often depleted to 600~700 tons upon arriving at its destination.

The problem is that North Korean authorities well aware of this fact that are unwilling to modify the routes or assert change. Ultimately, foreign aid is distributed throughout the regions of Pyongan province where the situation of food is relatively good in comparison to the rest of North Korea.

As rice only lands in the hands of people living in Pyongyang and Pyonan where influential ministers and Kim Jong Il’s elite reside, it can only be analyzed that this situation is occurring under specific motives. In the end, the majority of deaths occurred in Hamkyung, Yangkang and Jakang, and the situation has remained the same until today.

Following the missile launch and nuclear experiment, last year South Korea and the international community suspended food aid to North Korea, and in Feb 13th, the third phase of 5th round 6 Party talks ended with the South Korean government confirming that food aid would resume.

Undoubtedly international food aid is important but unless rice is distributed to the areas in most need, a similar situation to the 90’s will occur once again.

More importantly and urgently, aid must be delivered directly to the provinces of Yangkang, Hamkyung and Jangang. Thinking that North Korean authorities will wisely distribute food aid throughout the country is merely a South Korean fallacy.

Posted in 1990s Famine, Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Arduous March, Energy, Good Friends, International Aid, International Governments, Railways, Statistics, Transportation, UN Food and Agriculture Organization | Comments Closed

Seoul Wants 6 Nations to Shoulder Burden for Energy Aid to NK

Sunday, February 11th, 2007

Korea Times
Park Song-wu
2/11/2007

South Korea is thinking of chairing a working group for energy aid to North Korea as the United States is trying to differentiate this round of the six-party talks from a 1994 process, a Seoul official said on Sunday.

But Seoul has a firm position that all parties should jointly pay the “tax” for peace, he said.

“Denuclearization will benefit all parties, so the burdens should be shared jointly,” he said. “But we are thinking of taking the lead in the working group for energy aid, considering the circumstances of the other parties.”

He did not elaborate. But Tokyo is not expected to raise its hand to chair the working group, considering the Japanese anger over the North’s abduction of its nationals in the past.

Russia prefers forgiving the North’s debts instead of providing it with energy.

China, host of the multilateral dialogue, is already playing the most important role of chairing the six-party meeting.

What the United States apparently has in mind, and consented to by all parties, is the necessity to differentiate the result of these on-going negotiations from the 1994 Agreed Framework.

Since it was signed by Robert Gallucci and Kang Sok-ju in Geneva on October 21, 1994, Washington provided 500,000 tons of heavy oil annually to Pyongyang over the following seven years.

But the North’s promise to freeze its graphite-moderated reactors in return for two light-water reactors was not obeyed, causing the Bush administration to criticize the deal as a diplomatic failure of his predecessor, Bill Clinton. After that, U.S. diplomats even avoided meeting their North Korean counterparts bilaterally.

The U.S. policy, however, has recently reached a turning point.

“The Bush administration may have been driven to greater negotiating flexibility by a need to achieve a foreign policy victory to compensate for declining public support for the Iraq war and the loss of the Republican leadership of Congress,” Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow for the Heritage Foundation said in a recent article.

But one thing that has not changed is the U.S. hope of not repeating the “mistake” it made with the Geneva agreement.

From 1994 to 2002, Pyongyang received 3.56 million tons of heavy oil, equivalent to $500 million, from the now-defunct Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), and the United States shouldered the largest share of $347 million.

To shake off that bad memory, Washington wants to use the term “shut down” instead of “freezing” and even wants to avoid providing fuel oil to the North, reportedly citing the possibility that it can be used for military purposes.

So the talks have dragged on. And, to make things worse, the North Koreans are demanding a lot.

Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported that North Korea had demanded 2 million tons of heavy oil or 2 million kilowatts of electricity in exchange for taking the initial steps towards denuclearization.

Christopher Hill, the top U.S. envoy, expressed hope on Sunday that such technical issues could be discussed at working group meetings. On the same day, the Seoul official hinted that South Korea will chair the working group.

Posted in China, Electricity, Energy, Foreign aid statistics, International Aid, Japan, Nuclear, Oil, Russia, South Korea, USA | Comments Closed

DPRK population: $23 million- economy: $20.8 billion

Friday, February 9th, 2007

Companies Must Grow in Size
Joong Ang Daily
Song Byung-nak
2/9/2007

Ethiopia has a population of 70 million and its economy is valued at $7.7 billion, while North Korea has a populace of 23 million and an economy worth $20.8 billion. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics has 70,000 workers, and its sales amount to $72 billion, with value added assessed at $21.6 billion, according to a 2004 issue of Fortune magazine. Value added produced by Samsung Electronics is larger than that of North Korea’s economy and three times larger than that of Ethiopia.

Ethiopia used to be better off and assisted us during the Korean War. But now it has become the second-poorest nation in the world. Due to socialist policies that impede corporate activities, Ethiopia has no large companies with an international presence and few medium- or small-sized companies. Its per-capita income is only $110.

Let’s take a look at the United States, the world’s richest country. Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, has accumulated assets worth $50 billion. The assets of General Electric are larger than those of the 227 affiliates of Korea’s top 10 companies combined. The sales value of the world’s largest company, Exxon Mobile Corporation, is $380 billion and its net profit is $39 billion. Washington prioritizes the protection of national interests when devising its foreign policies. At the core are measures to protect and boost its companies.

Advanced countries have many companies that represent them. Among Fortune’s list of 500 global corporations, there are 170 U.S. companies and 70 Japanese. France and Britain combined have 38 companies on the list. Twelve Korean companies appear, the same number as Switzerland, even though the European country has only one- sixth of our population.

As there are many global companies in the United States, people can choose between many alternatives when they look for a job. As wages are good, Americans have stable finances. As there is a system to make money through stocks, people do not spend excessive energy and time on trying to find ways to make more money, the kind of thing that creates instability in Korea.

According to the World Bank’s annual World Development Report, Korea’s economy is the world’s ninth-largest among advanced countries, but it ranks 11th if China and India are included. The International Monetary Fund also included Korea in its list of the 28 most advanced countries.

However, Korea has too few large-scale companies to compete effectively on the global stage. In order to become a truly competitive country, Korea needs to develop and foster its companies.

There is another reason the country needs to develop big companies: a shortage of jobs. Every year, 630,000 people with degrees come on to the labor market. But the number of available jobs is only half of the number of job-seekers.

The government plans to create jobs to fill this gap, but it is not the right body to create jobs. The number of government civil servants is now 1 million.

Even if the number doubles, that cannot resolve the problem of long-term unemployment. As civil servants are paid with taxpayers’ money, to increase their numbers means an increase in taxes and bureaucracy. That is something that we should avoid.

We need to nurture companies to increase our penetration of global markets and we need to make partnership companies become listed enterprises in order to create more jobs. There are three things to do.

First, we need to grant prizes and honor to world-class companies and entrepreneurs, just as we grant medals and lifetime bonuses to athletes who become world champions.

These days, young people flock to become government officials, members of the judiciary or lawyers. Instead, we should encourage them to become world-class entrepreneurs if we want to win any battles in the economic war.

Second, most of Korea’s global companies have been founded and developed by conglomerates.

Peter Drucker advised that Korea should develop its current conglomerates into global ones, instead of dismantling them.

These days, there is no such thing as one correct way to run a company or an organization. We should help a company that is not part of a large conglomerate to become big enough to represent the country.

Third, in preparation for a free trade agreement with Washington, we should develop a more competitive corporate environment that is like the one in the United States. We must lift regulations on all forms of investment. The government, companies and the people should do their best to develop companies that can represent the country on the international stage.

Posted in GDP statistics, Statistics | Comments Closed

NK Imports 15,000 Tons of Rice From China in Late 2006

Friday, February 9th, 2007

Korea Times
2/9/2007

North Korea purchased about 15,000 metric tons of rice from China late last year, reflecting a severe food shortage in the communist state, according to South Korea’s state-run trade agency Friday.

The impoverished communist country imported 7,423 tons of rice in October, 3,910 tons in November and 3,928 tons in December, the Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) said.

The amount of rice imported over the three-month period is about 2.6 times more than that of the same period in 2005, and it accounted for almost half of its annual rice imports totaling 38,479 tons, KOTRA said.

“North Korea’s massive rice imports following the harvest season means that its food situation is so severe. Due to the imported rice, North Korea’s market rice prices are stable so far,’’ said Kwon Tae-jin, a senior researcher at the state-run Korea Rural Economic Institute.

Another North Korea expert said the communist country might have had to take such measures because of United Nations sanctions on the North following its nuclear weapon test in October as well as South Korea’s suspension of its food and fertilizer aid to North Korea since July.

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, China, Foreign aid statistics, General markets (FMR: Farmers Market), International trade, Statistics, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

North Korean Economy Watch