Archive for the ‘Statistics’ Category

NK Economy Shrinks 1.1% in 2006

Thursday, August 16th, 2007

Korea Times
Na Jeong-ju
8/16/2007

North Korea’s economy posted negative growth in 2006 for the first time in eight years on decreased production of agricultural and fisheries goods, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said Thursday.

In its estimate for the North’s economic growth, the central bank said the North’s real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 1.1 percent in 2006 from a year ago, a turnaround from a 3.8 percent expansion in 2005. Until 2006, the North’s GDP had grown for seven years in a row since a 6.2 percent rise in 1999.

The GDP is the total output of goods and services produced within a country.

“Due to bad weather, North Korea’s agricultural, forestry and fisheries production fell with the construction industry remaining sluggish,” the BOK said. “North Korea seems to have suffered a blow as its international relations deteriorated due to its nuclear issues on top of a shortage of energy.”

The economic gap between the two Koreas grew larger last year.

North Korea’s nominal GDP increased 5.8 percent from a year ago to $25.6 billion last year, while South Korea’s GDP rose to $887.3 billion. South Korea’s GDP is 34.7 times larger than that of North Korea, widening from a 32.6-fold difference in 2005.

North Korea’s per-capita gross national income (GNI) came to $1,108 last year, up from $1,056 a year earlier, while South Korea’s per-capita GNI of $18,372 was 16.6 times bigger than that of the North, expanding from a 15.5 fold-difference. The North’s population reached 23.1 million, while the South’s was 48.3 million.

North Korea’s trade remained unchanged year-on-year at $3 billion last year, compared with South Korea’s $634.9 billion. The South’s trade was 212 times bigger than the North’s last year, rising from a 182-fold difference in 2005.

Pyongyang saw its exports dip 5.2 percent year-on-year to $950 million in 2006 as outbound shipments of animal products, non-metal goods and machinery decreased, while imports gained 2.3 percent to $2.1 billion.

Inter-Korean trade increased 27.8 percent from a year earlier to $1.4 billion. South Korea’s shipments to North Korea advanced 16 percent to $830.2 million, mainly on increased rice and fertilizer aid.

Inbound shipments from the North jumped 52.7 percent to $519.5 million on a hike in inter-Korean projects and mineral imports, the BOK said.

North Korea’s agricultural, forestry and fisheries industry declined 2.6 percent year-on-year last year, a turnaround from a 5 percent gain in 2005. The construction industry dipped 11.5 percent after gaining 6.1 percent the previous year.

The mining sector growth decelerated to 1.9 percent from 3.5 percent. Its manufacturing sector expansion slowed to 0.4 percent from 4.9 percent. The services industry grew 1.1 percent last year after increasing 1.3 percent in 2005, the central bank said.

North Korean economy posted 2006 downturn
Joong Ang Daily
Jung Ha-won
8/17/2007

North Korea’s economy shrank for the first time in eight years last year as agricultural production declined due to natural disasters and sluggish infrastructure development, according to estimates by South Korea’s central bank.

The Bank of Korea said yesterday that it believes North Korea’s 2006 gross domestic product declined 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the first downturn since 1999. The BOK, since 1991, has estimated the figures based on data from South Korean intelligence agencies and other research institutes. North Korea does not release economic data.

According to the estimate released yesterday, North Korea’s agriculture and marine industries last year declined 2.6 percent from 2005, when production rose by 5 percent.

“North Korea suffered from a serious flood last year, in stark contrast to 2005 when there was no major flood and farm production was good,” said a BOK official who refused to be named.

Growth in mining production, one of North Korea’s major industries, slowed to 1.9 percent from 3.5 percent in 2005. Manufacturing inched up 0.4 percent, down from 4.9 percent growth in 2005.

Construction sector production showed the biggest downturn at 11.5 percent from a year earlier, compared to 6.1 percent growth in 2005, as road and railway construction slowed, the central bank said.

Using satellite data, the bank estimated North Korea built just 49 kilometers (30.4 miles) of new roads last year, a sharp decline from 310 kilometers built in 2005.

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Lifting US Sanctions Key to NK’s Economic Revival

Wednesday, August 15th, 2007

Korea Times
8/15/2007

To understand what is at stake, we need to look back at key events in the past that led to North Korea’s isolation in the global economy.

U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea began on June 28, 1950, only three days after North Korea invaded South Korea, when the United States invoked a total embargo on exports to North Korea. Over the years, many more U.S. sanctions have been imposed against North Korea, and North Korean companies. Three of these sanctions have had a significant impact.

The first was the suspension of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status, imposed on September 1, 1951. This sanction, which is still in effect, made it impossible for North Korea to even consider exporting its products to the United States.

The second is the placement of North Korea on the list of countries that support international terrorism. This sanction, imposed on January 20, 1988, followed North Korea’s blowing up of Korea Air Lines 858 on November 29, 1987, off the waters of Thailand.

This sanction has entailed many restrictions, including denial of North Korea’s ability to borrow money from international financial institutions.

The third measure is not a single action, but has taken the form of a tightening grip around the financial network used to fund North Korea’s illicit financial activities.

Although the ultimate target is North Korea, the threat of actual sanctions has been targeted against banks, including Banco Delta Asia, which deal with North Korea’s accounts. These financial sanctions involving Banco Delta Asia have been the focus of recent overt and covert negotiations between North Korea and the United States.

On September 17, 1999, President Clinton agreed to the first significant easing of economic sanctions against North Korea since the Korean War ended in 1953.

The U.S. easing of sanctions against North Korea, announced on June 19, 2000, may have been too little to persuade the leaders of North Korea to give up their prized long-range missile technology. North Korea carried out a nuclear test on October 9, 2006, and the United Nations passed Resolution 1718, further tightening North Korean economy.

There is no doubt that all these sanctions are having an impact on the North Korean economy. For instance, the North Korea’s annual trade deficit has averaged between $800 million and $1 billion in recent years, depending on whether deficits against South Korea are included.

The huge trade deficit is not sustainable, and it will eventually lead to a decrease in North Korea’s trade and gross domestic product. Studies indicate that the entire trade deficit appears to have been financed by weapons sales, illicit activities, and funds flowing from South Korea through joint projects. With the two UN resolutions adopted during 2006 and the tightening of North Korea’s financial transactions that began in 2005, North Korea should find it increasingly more difficult to pay for its trade deficit.

The key issue is not whether North Korea deserves the lifting of all the sanctions imposed against the country on the basis of its behavior since 1950, but how to bring about a peaceful resolution of pending security and humanitarian issues without military confrontation. This brings us to the importance of the upcoming summit between President Roh and North Korean leader Kim.

My assessment is that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 led to an important change in the approach of North Korean leaders toward a better calculation of costs and benefits.

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Weekly Report on North Korea (July 30, 2007 – August 5, 2007)

Monday, August 13th, 2007

South Korean Ministry of Unification
Serial No.851 (July 30 to August 05, 2007)

Internal Affairs

  • According to the report by the Central Broadcasting Station on July 30, North Korea held the Election of Deputies to the Provincial (Municipality Directly under Central Authority), City (District) and County People’s Assemblies of the DPRK on July 29 and announced the result through the report by the Central Election Guidance Committee.
  • According to the reports by the Central Broadcasting Station from August 1 to 4, Chairman Kim Jongil inspected a sub-unit of KPA Unit 4318, the Unit 136, and the Unit 273.
  • The Central Broadcasting Station reported on August 2 that cooperative farms in Dahungdan-gun, Yanggang-do, are focusing on potato farming.

Inter-Korean Affairs

  • According to the reports by the Central Broadcasting Station and Pyongyang Broadcasting Services on August 3, the spokesperson of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland announced a statement on August 2 to criticize the U.S.-ROK joint military exercise Ulchi Focus Lens from August 20 to 31.
  • The Rodong Daily reported on August 4 that on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s work “Let Us Carry out the Great Leader Comrade Kim IL Sung’s Instructions for National Reunification,” North Korea held a Pyongyang city report session on August 3 and published a commemorative editorial on August 4 on the Rodong Daily.

Foreign Affairs

  • The standing committee chairman of the Supreme People’s Assembly Kim Young-nam made a formal visit to Algeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia from July 24 to 31.
  • North Korean delegates led by Minister of Foreign Affairs Pak Ui-chun visited the Philippines to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum from July 28 to August 2.
  • With the U.S. House’s adoption of the resolution on comfort women, North Korea is continuously criticizing Japan, maintaining Japan’s raising the abduction issue is causing trouble in the six party talks.
  • North Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Pak Ui-chun met South Korean counterpart Song Min-soon during the ASEAN Regional Forum and reaffirmed that the abolition of the U.S. hostile policy against North Korea should be the precondition of the implementation of the second step of February 13 Agreement. 
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Sunshine needs new directions

Wednesday, August 1st, 2007

Joong Ang Daily
Jo Dong-ho
8/1/2007

The environment for economic relations between South and North Korea has changed.

In 1998, when the Sunshine Policy was started, South Korea’s national per capita income was $7,355, while North Korea’s stood at $573. At the time, South Korea’s export volume was $132.3 billion, and North Korea’s was $600 million. In a nutshell, South Korea’s national per capita income was 13 times higher and its export volume was 220 times bigger than North Korea’s.

Since then, South Korea’s national per capita income has rapidly increased, to $18,372 as of 2006. Meanwhile, according to an estimate by the Bank of Korea, North Korea’s national per capita income hovers at around $900.

South Korea’s exports are worth $325.6 billion, nearly triple 1998 numbers, but North Korea’s export volume is merely $900 million.

Accordingly, the gap between the two Koreas’ economies has widened. Now, South Korea’s national per capita income is 20 times higher than North Korea’s. South Korea’s export volume is 325 times larger than North Korea’s.

In particular, South Korea’s economy has developed and matured a great deal in terms of quality because it opened its doors more widely after the financial crisis 10 years ago.

But North Korea still cries out for an independent, self-sufficient economy, leading to a wider discrepancy in the economies of the South and North.

In the meantime, economic cooperation between South and North Korea has developed a great deal. In 1998, trade volume between South and North Korea was worth around $200 million. In 2006, it was more than $1.3 billion. Today, large-scale projects by both the private and the public sectors are in progress, something that was unthinkable back in 1998.

Examples of these are a building project at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the government’s project for social overhead capital, such as railways and highways between the two Koreas. A variety of agreements have already been prepared, such as one protecting investments.

As a result, South Korea is North Korea’s largest export market, its second-largest trade partner and largest investor. South Korea also provides support and more assistance to North Korea than other countries.

The number of visitors to North Korea has increased as well. In 1988, 3,317 people went to North Korea, but last year more than 100,000 people visited there.

The reason why I included these lengthy statistics is to underscore the change in South and North Korea’s economies as wellas their economic relations.

In the past, South Koreans wanted to buy products made in North Korea out of curiosity, but now an item from North Korea is simply commonplace.

A small project involving North Korea made headlines in the past, but now many go unnoticed.

However, the Sunshine Policy, which has been in place since the Kim Dae-jung administration, has not changed at all.

The Sunshine Policy was aimed at inducing North Korea to change and expanding contact and exchange with North Korea was a means to achieve that goal.

That is why we did our utmost to cooperate economically with North Korea and to increase assistance to the country. As seen in statistics, these efforts have produced significant achievements on the outside.

But in the process, we became preoccupied with the means and forgot about the original goal of the policy. We continued economic cooperation with North Korea even though it carried out a nuclear test. We wanted a summit meeting with North Korea even though it meant we had to put a tremendous amount of money under the table. The Donghae line is not of much use because the railway does not run northbound from Gangneung. We connected it because North Korea wanted us to.

Maintaining contacts and exchange with North Korea has become the ultimate goal of the policy. Because of the Sunshine Policy, in which the means have become the goal, North Korea receives assistance even though it sticks to its old-fashioned ideology.

Thus, now we need to straighten out the means and the goal. The environment for economic relations between South and North Korea has changed. We can’t define the Sunshine Policy as either a failure or a success.

We have long since passed the stage where we have to pour all our efforts into the means, but we have not changed our direction to focus our energy and attention on a new goal. It is meaningless that presidential hopefuls discuss whether they will embrace or abolish the Sunshine Policy in its entirety.

In the past, starting economic relations with North Korea was the top priority even though it meant “shoveling aid across the border.” The time has come to steer the policy in the right direction.

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IFES Monthly report

Wednesday, August 1st, 2007

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
8/1/2007

INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS

Following two days of talks between economic representatives of the two Koreas at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, South Korea announced on July 7 that it would begin shipping raw materials to the North in exchange for DPRK natural resources. South Korea shipped 800,000 USD of polyester fabric on July 25, and is set to send the rest of the materials by the end of November. North Korea accepted South Korean prices for the goods, and will pay transportation, cargo working, and demurrage costs, as well. South Korea will pay for shipping, insurance, and the use of port facilities. On 28 July, a South Korean delegation left for the North in order to conduct on-site surveys of three zinc and magnesite mines. The team will spend two weeks in North Korea.

It was reported on 17 July that North Korea proposed a joint fishing zone north of the ‘Northern Limit Line’ dividing North and South territorial waters to the west of the peninsula. Seoul turned down the offer.

Inter-Korean military talks broke down early on 26 July after only three days of negotiations as North Korea insisted on the redrawing of the Northern Limit Line.

North Korea demanded on 27 July that workers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex be given a 15 percent pay raise. The North Korean workers will not work overtime, weekends or holidays beginning in August unless the raise is granted.

It was reported by the Korea International Trade Association on 26 July that inter-Korean trade was up 28.6 percent in the first six months of 2007, totaling 720 million USD.

RUSSIA-DPRK INVESTMENT

It was reported on 19 July that Russia and North Korea have agreed to connect Khasan and Najin by rail, enlisting investment from Russian oil companies interested in an inactive refinery at Najin Port capable of processing up to 120,000 barrels per day. The project is estimated to cost over two billion USD.

MONGOLIA-DPRK RELATIONS

During a four-day visit to Mongolia by Kim Yong-nam beginning on 20 July, the two countries signed protocols on cooperation on health and science, trade and sea transport, and labor exchange issues. This follows on the heals of an agreement to allow South Korean trains to travel through North Korean territory on to Mongolia in route to Russia and Europe.

JAPAN-DPRK PROPAGANDA

Japan took one step further to recover abductees in North Korea this month when the government began broadcasting propaganda into the DPRK intended for Japanese citizens. The broadcasts are made in Korean and Japanese (30 minutes each) daily, and updated once per week.

U.S.-DPRK PEACE PROSPECTS

U.S. Ambassador to the ROK Alexander Vershbow stated that Washington was prepared to negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula by the end of the year if North Korea were to completely abandon its nuclear ambitions.

 

EGYPT-DPRK INVESTMENT

The Egyptian company Orascom Construction Industries announced a 115 million USD deal with North Korea’s state-owned Pyongyang Myongdang Trading Corporation to purchase a 50 percent state in Sangwon Cement. To put this in perspective, the deal in worth more than four times the amount of frozen DPRK funds that had caused six-party talks to break down and delayed the implementation of the February 13 agreement.

NORTH KOREAN SOCIETY

The Economist reported on 7 July that, according to foreigners living in the North’s capital, concern for petty law appears to be weakening. Citizens are reportedly smoking in smoke-free zones, sitting on escalator rails, and even blocking traffic by selling wares on the streets.

It was reported on July 11 that a letter sent earlier in the year by the North Korean Red Cross indicated severe shortages of medical supplies. The letter stated that North Korea would accept any medicine, even if it was past expiration, and accept all consequences for any problems that arose from using outdated supplies. The (South) Korea Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association had no choice but to reject the request.

Events were held on July 11 in North Korea in order to promote women’s health and well-being issues. Marking World Population Day, a North Korean official stated that the DPRK has cooperated with the UN Population Fund since 1986, and is now in the fourth phase of cooperation.

Seeing entertainment venues as a “threat to society”, North Korean security forces have been implementing a shutdown of karaoke bars and Internet cafes. These venues mainly cater to traders in the northern regions of the country.

It was reported on July 13 that construction of North Korea’s first all-English language university was nearing completion. The Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, funded largely by ROK and U.S. Christian evangelical groups, will hold 2600 students and offer undergraduate and post-graduate degrees in business administration, information technology, and agriculture.

Local elections were held on 29 July for DPRK provincial, city, and country People’s Assemblies. 100 percent of 27,390 candidates were approved with a 99.82 percent turnout reported.

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Gaeseong output boosts inter-Korean trade

Monday, July 30th, 2007

Korea Herald
Ko Kyoung-tae
7/30/2007

Trade between South and North Korea expanded fast this year as South Korean manufacturers picked up investment and output at the Gaeseong Industrial Park, trade data showed yesterday.

The Korea International Trade Association said the inter-Korean trade rose to a record high $720 in the first half, up nearly 30 percent from a year earlier.

Imports from the North jumped over 60 percent to $390 million, while exports slightly declined to $330 million, according to the association.

The large leap in imports from North Korea largely resulted from the fast-growing manufacturing facilities in Gaeseong.

The two Koreas have traded around $190 million of products and machineries through the industrial complex in the first six months, up almost 80 percent from a year earlier.

The KITA officials expect the rising interests in the Gaeseong complex to further push up the cross-border investment and trade in the coming years.

South Korean conglomerate Hyundai Group built the manufacturing park in the North’s border city of Gaeseong in 2004 in a bid to attract South Korean manufacturers looking for cheap labor.

More than 20 South Korean companies currently employ around 11,000 North Korean workers.

Gaeseong’s output accounts for about one-third of the total inter-Korean commercial trade, the KITA noted.

Other regular trade also soared over 65 percent to $210 million as fishery and commodity imports grew in recent months.

In contrast, aid from South to North Korea remained stagnant.

Private cross-border aid dropped 15 percent to $140 million while government aid more than doubled to $20 million, the KITA noted.

The association estimated that 2007 inter-Korean trade would surpass $1.7 billion, four times that of 2000.

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S. Korea completes oil aid shipment to N. Korea under six-nation nuclear accord

Sunday, July 29th, 2007

Yonhap
7/29/2007

South Korea on Sunday sent 22,590 tons of heavy fuel oil to North Korea, its last oil shipment to the communist neighbor under the first stage of a landmark nuclear disarmament deal.

Under a Feb. 13 deal signed with five other regional powers, North Korea agreed to shut down its nuclear reactor in Yongbyon in return for 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil aid from South Korea.

The oil shipment, the fifth of its kind, left this southeast port at 1 a.m. and is to arrive at Sonbong Port in northeastern North Korea at 7 a.m. on Monday, South Korean officials said.

North Korea shut down the Yongbyon reactor after South Korea sent the first shipment on July 12. The February deal also calls for North Korea to disclose and disable all its nuclear programs in return for an additional 950,000 tons of oil or equivalent aid.

The six nations — the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan — met in Beijing earlier this month but the talks ended without setting a date to meet again.

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Korea Economic Institute published new data

Thursday, July 26th, 2007

KEI
May 2007

Link to KEI web site power point presentation.
PDF here:Korea Economic Institute.pdf

Topics covered:

Nominal and Per Capita GNI
Population and Per Capita GNI
GDP Growth
Industrial Structure in 2004 (% of total GDP)
GDP Growth Rates by Industry
North Korea’s External Trade
Trade with Major Trading Partners (2005)
North Korea’s Principal Trade Partners by Year
Inter- Korean Trade
South Korea’s Exports to North Korea By Type
South Korea’s Processing-on-Commission Trade with North Korea

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A Mass-Scale Trade Deficit Results after the July 1 Economic Measure

Thursday, July 26th, 2007

Daily NK
Park Hyun Min
7/26/2007
 
In North Korea, despite the additional reform measures on the table after the implementation of the 2002 July 1 Economic Management Reform Measure (July 1 Economic Measure), it appears that a mass-scale trade deficit has resulted.

Choi Soo Young, a Senior Researcher of Korea Institute for National Unification, said through a recently published report called “Five years after the July 1 economic measure, North Korea’s Economy and Process of Transformation” in the July issue of the Reunification Affairs Analysis, “The size of the deficit in North Korea’s revenues and expenditures (with the exception of North and South Korea trade) has increased from 790 million dollars in 2002 to 11 hundred million dollars in 2006.”

Researcher Choi said, “After the July 1 economic measure, North Korea, through regionalization of trade activities, which used to revolve around the Central Planning Administration, by allowing provincial-level offices such as the city and district offices, attempted trade revitalization.” However, to control inflation resulting from structural unemployment and shortage of supply, the North Korean government ignored revenues outside of national planning, which was the cause of the deficit.

After he also pointed out that, “When the North Korean economy’s dependence on China became chronic, the situation has become exacerbated,” he said, “North Korea’s export to China in 2006, compared to 2002, rose 72.7%, but on the other hand, import from China increased 163.8%.”

Between 2002-2004, North Korea’s size of trade deficit with China was only around 2 hundred million dollars, but in 2005 and 2006 each, it expanded to 5.8 hundred million dollars and 7.6 hundred million dollars. Further, North Korea’s reliance on trade with China, augmented from 48.5% in 2004, to 52.6% in 2005, and 56.7% in 2006.

Accordingly, North Korea has to depend on China in order to get equipment, energy, and raw materials for industrial production.

Simultaneously, Choi, from the perspective of macroeconomics on the basis of North Korea’s economic growth rate, North Korea’s economy has recovered from the worst situation and is maintaining a low-growth condition.

He analyzed, “From 1990 to 1998, a continuous 9-year negative economic growth has been recorded, but from 1999 to 2004, a positive growth has been achieved. After the July 1 economic measure, the North Korean economy’s low-growth originated from its verbal effort of increasing productions of agricultural and a portion of its light industry goods and the support of the outside world.”

However, he pointed out that it is not off-target to evaluate that the North has a foundation of undergrowth due to its sustained level of low-growth, that its shortage of food, energy, and raw material goods is continuing, and on the industrial front, productions increase has not shown any movement.

On one hand, researcher Choi said that going beyond the financial deficit, in order to realize a form of annual income and annual expenditures, an establishment of the power of taxation for an increase in tax revenues and restraining of unnecessary financial expenses are needed. Also, he ordered the acquirement of an objective tax system for the assurance of an effective financial plan and a fair tax.

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Inter-Korean Trade Jumps 28.6%

Thursday, July 26th, 2007

Korea Times
Jane Han
7/26/2007

Inter-Korean trade rose 28.6 percent in the first half of 2007 from a year earlier, the country’s leading trade agency said Thursday, attributing the boost to the Gaeseong joint industrial complex and the eased tension between Seoul and Pyongyang.

Trade amounted to $720 million during the January-June period, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) said.

While South’s exports to the North dropped 9.4 percent to $330 million, imports from the North jumped an impressive 63.3 percent to $390 million.

The trade group credited the big import leap to the expanded number of items produced in the industrial complex located at North Korea’s western border city.

But unlike the positive performance of the two-way trade, the Mt. Geumgang tour business has dropped 7.2 percent.

South Korean companies are currently employing about 15,000 North Korean workers in the Gaeseong complex and the number is expected to rise as the facility undergoes expansion.

Symbolic of the cooperation between the Cold War rivals, the industrial park began construction in June 2003 and its operation started the following year.

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