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(UPDATE)DPRK food update

Friday, October 24th, 2008

UPDATE 3: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland chime in with “Famine in North Korea Redux”.

UPDATE 2: IFES notes that Pyongyang is acknowledging the food shortage:

DPRK stressing unaided resolution to food crisis
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-10-24-1
10/24/2008

On October 22, the North Korean Workers’ Party newspaper, Rodong Shinmun, reported on the international food crisis, and stressed, ‘The only things we can trust in the face of today’s severe food crisis are the efforts and self sacrifice of our blood, sweat, and tears,’ emphasizing an autonomous resolution to the food problem.

According to the paper, Kim Jong Il stated, “Today in our country, the agricultural problem is a very important problem that must be decisively resolved in order to build a strong and prosperous socialist nation.”

In particular, the paper stressed the urgency of the food problems, reporting, “Rice and food are of the utmost importance, like a lifeline to us,” while admitting that fertilizer, agricultural chemicals, fuel, and other essential items were in short supply, but adding, “the basis of agricultural production is not physical conditions, but determination.” By emphasizing that ‘determination’ would be key to solving the problem was a way of indirectly admitting that the government did not have the means to provide the supplies necessary to increase agricultural output.

The tone of the article conveys the idea that as the food crisis worsens around the world, international food aid to North Korea is being reduced, causing the worsening of the food crisis in the DPRK. It would appear that the government is trying to calm the people’s discontent by blaming outside influences, while at the same time mobilizing the efforts of North Korean farm workers.

While all of North Korea’s media sources have been repeatedly reporting the current global food crisis, they have emphasized that most others do not have rice to give, and those that do are not giving it, so that the North’s domestic food shortages need to be resolved by the North Koreans themselves.

UPDATE: Jess adds some great statistics in the comments.

The Daily NK reports on the Ministry of Unification’s claims about the DPRK’s food situation.

ORIGINAL POST:We are getting some mixed messages on the state of the DPRK’s agricultural production and access to food….

Last month, IFES and the Daily NK reported that the DPRK was expecting a decent harvest this fall since the country’s farmlands were spared the seasonal flooding of the previous years:

A source involved in China-North Korea trade at a company in Shenyang was quoted on the 30th as saying, “[North Korean] rice traders are expecting this year’s food production to be considerably improved compared to last year,” and, “This year, with no large natural disasters, rice paddies and crop fields are doing well, and crop production will probably be much greater than last year.”

In a related matter, one North Korean insider reported, “With the [North Korean] food situation, no one is doing as well as the wholesalers,” and, “As the fall harvest season has come, traders have come by farms in each province and reported that rice and corn harvests are very good.”

The source went on to say, “This year, farming was not difficult, so as autumn passes, the market price of rice looks likely to fall. The price of corn will fall even faster, hitting the 1000 won per kilogram level by mid October.” In fact, by the end of this year’s fall harvest, the price of food is expected to return to pre-shock levels. Currently, rice is selling for 2200 won and corn for 1300 won per kilogram in North Korean markets. (IFES)

This week, however, the UN World Food Program sent the opposite signal, highlighting the acute food shortages they are seeing:

The UN food agency said Thursday that millions of North Koreans face a food crisis, but a South Korean official said that Seoul has not decided whether to respond to a request for food aid to the communist country.

“Some areas of the northeastern provinces in the country … have become extremely vulnerable, facing a situation of a humanitarian emergency,” Jean-Pierre de Margerie, the WFP’s country director for North Korea, said at a forum on North Korea.

Around 2.7 million people on North Korea’s west coast will also run out of food in October, the WFP said in a report released Tuesday.

The food shortages have forced many North Koreans to go to hills to collect wild food to complement their daily rations and reduce the number of meals per day to two, said de Margerie.

Asked if North Koreans face starvation, he said his agency hasn’t seen any evidence of starvation but said, “We have reached (a) very critical level and we shouldn’t wait for another starvation before ringing the alarm bells.”

The WFP also said the food shortages have especially affected urban households in areas with low industrial activity due to higher food prices, reductions in public food rations and lower employment.

Donor countries should back us up … Now is (the) time to act,” de Margerie said. (AP via New Zealand’s 3 News)

According to another report in the Times of London:

On Tuesday, WFP announced that some 2.7 million people on North Korea’s west coast will run out of food in October, and that, because of the worsening food situation, it was increasing from 1.9 million to 6.5 million the population which it seeks to help with food aid.

“Some areas of the north-eastern provinces in the country have become extremely vulnerable, facing a situation of a humanitarian emergency,” the organisation’s programme director for North Korea said. “We have reached a very critical level and we shouldn’t wait for another starvation before ringing the alarm bells.”

Additionally, UN’s point man on North Korean human rights, Vitit Muntarbhorn, has gone so far as to claim North Korea is clamping down on mobile phones and long distance telephone calls to prevent the spread of news about a worsening food crisis (Times of London).

The South Korean Ministry of Unification, however, is publicly disputing the UNWFP’s numbers:

A South Korean official has disputed the U.N.’s assessment that millions of North Koreans are at risk of food shortages, saying Friday that the impoverished communist country does not appear to face a “serious” food emergency.

Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon said that North Korea’s harvest this year is not bad, citing South Korean civic officials who recently visited the country.

“We believe that the North’s food condition is not in a serious crisis situation,” Kim told reporters, adding that the weather has been good and there were no heavy rains like the ones that devastated the North last year.

His comments came a day after the U.N. food agency said millions of North Koreans face a food crisis and called on donor countries, including South Korea, to provide urgent food aid.

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Food, Foreign aid statistics, Institute for Far Eastern Studies, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program | 2 Comments »

DPRK economic statistics roundup

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

Reuters published a short article stating many of the DPRK’s economic statistics. Most of these can already be found on this site, but in terms of a quick update, this is not bad. The author even acknowledges the wide disparity of the DPRK’s national and per capita income estimates, which is something most articles on these topics fail to address:

*SIZE OF ECONOMY

Annual gross domestic product in 2007 was just over $20 billion, a fall of 2.3 percent from the previous year due to the effects of widespread flooding, according to South Korea’s central bank. However, a report commissioned by a former South Korean unification minister estimated it was less than half that.

*HOW MUCH DO NORTH KOREANS HAVE

Estimates of per capita income range from $400 to $1,000. Whichever figure is true, the population of around 23 million is one of the world’s most destitute. That compares to around $20,000 in capitalist South Korea, once the poorer of the two halves of the Korean peninsula. North Korea’s economy has declined over the past two decades.

*HUNGRY NATION

North Korea’s state doctrine preaches self-reliance. But for years it has been unable to produce enough food for its people and relies heavily on foreign aid. Even in good harvests, it produces about 20 percent less than it needs. An estimated 1 million North Koreans perished during famine in the 1990s.

Last month, the U.N. World Food Programme estimated that North Korea would need some $500 million in food aid over the next year to avoid a humanitarian crisis.

*WHO TRADES WITH NORTH KOREA AND WHAT CAN IT SELL?

Constantly running a trade deficit, North Korea offers cheap labor mostly for relatively low-skilled manufacturing industries, such as textiles. Its chief attraction, especially to neighboring China, is its natural resources, especially coal and minerals.

Some sources, including the U.S. government, believe it bolsters its trade through the illicit exports of weaponry, drugs and counterfeit U.S. dollars.

Its biggest trade partner is China which, by one estimate, accounted for an estimated two-thirds of its total foreign trade last year. By contrast, in the first eight months of this year, Pyongyang accounted for just 0.12 percent of China’s total foreign trade.

Of China’s imports from the North, close to 60 percent were coal and minerals such as iron ore, zinc, lead, molybdenum and precious metals.

South Korea is Pyongyang’s other main trade partner. The two operate an industrial park on the northern side of the border where manufacturers from the South use cheap local labor.

The full article can be found hrere:
FACTBOX: Some facts about the North Korean economy
Reuters
Jonathan Thatcher
10/20/2008

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Coal, Foreign aid statistics, GDP statistics, International trade, Mining/Minerals, RoK Ministry of Unification, Statistics, Trade Statistics | Comments Closed

Korean height gap

Sunday, October 19th, 2008

This week the Wall Street Journal did a pretty thorough review of the North – South Korean “height gap” after John McCain mentioned it in a presidential debate. Here is a hefty quote from the post (well worth reading here):

…Several checked and (here, here, and here) found studies supporting his claim of a height gap, though the gap’s size depends on which South Koreans and North Koreans you’re measuring. The researchers behind these studies told me that McCain’s statement is true of younger Koreans, but not of adults. (A McCain campaign spokesman didn’t respond to my request for the source of the claim.)

One study of North Korean refugees compared to South Koreans of the same age found that South Korean young men were 2.3 inches taller than their North Korean counterparts, while the gap among young women was 2.6 inches. Meanwhile, among non-refugee boys and girls living in both countries between the ages of one and a half and six and a half, a separate study found that the height gap was around three inches (varying slightly by age and gender); between six and a half and seven and a half, the height gap was 4.9 inches for girls and five inches for boys.

The height gap is so age-dependent for two reasons, researchers told me: People of different ages experience peak growth at different times, and at different times the discrepancies between the two Koreas in nutrition, health and overall well-being may differ. Also, adults who were undernourished as children may catch up slightly later.

“Adults were raised 20 to 50 years ago — thus, you proxy the environmental impact in the past, so it does not really make sense comparing different time periods,” Daniel Schwekendiek, author of the study of child heights, said.

Schwekendiek, an economist at Germany’s University of Tuebingen, was a postdoc student of Sunyoung Pak, a biological anthropologist at Seoul National University who conducted the refugee study. Pak said it’s unclear whether refugees are a representative sample of the North Korean population, though she did point out that the older people she studied, born in the 1930s, were taller than their southern-born counterparts, suggesting that there has been a growing height gap, as North Korean height growth stagnated. (People, like other mammals, tend to be heavier and taller at greater latitudes, Pak said.)

Schwekendiek’s samples were randomly selected — in North Korea, by the United Nations in 10 of 12 provinces, to investigate malnutrition, and in wealthier, healthier South Korea, by the Korean Research Institute of Standards and Sciences, on behalf of industries that wanted to produce goods that fit children.

Both researchers said height is a useful measure of well-being because North Koreans and South Koreans share genetic ancestry, and also because height numbers are more reliable and objective than economic stats coming out of Pyongyang. “As height and weight are measured physically, this leaves less room for political manipulation compared to conventional health and human welfare indicators,” Schwekendiek said.

Wall Street Journal
The Numbers Guy
The Korean Height Gap
10/15/2008

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Civil society, Demographics, Emigration statistics, Food, Statistics | 1 Comment »

DPRK expecting bumper crop this fall

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-10-7-1
10/17/2008

It appears that many in North Korea are expecting an exceptionally large increase in this years’ harvest. According to a report issued on September 30 by Daily NK, a South Korean organization working for North Korean human rights, rice and corn market traders and those involved in food distribution are saying that grain harvests this year are significantly larger than last year, that by the end of the harvest season in November, North Korea’s food shortage crisis will be considerably eased, and that the price of rice will stabilize as well.

A source involved in China-North Korea trade at a company in Shenyang was quoted on the 30th as saying, “[North Korean] rice traders are expecting this year’s food production to be considerably improved compared to last year,” and, “This year, with no large natural disasters, rice paddies and crop fields are doing well, and crop production will probably be much greater than last year.”

In a related matter, one North Korean insider reported, “With the [North Korean] food situation, no one is doing as well as the wholesalers,” and, “As the fall harvest season has come, traders have come by farms in each province and reported that rice and corn harvests are very good.”

The source went on to say, “This year, farming was not difficult, so as autumn passes, the market price of rice looks likely to fall. The price of corn will fall even faster, hitting the 1000 won per kilogram level by mid October.” In fact, by the end of this year’s fall harvest, the price of food is expected to return to pre-shock levels. Currently, rice is selling for 2200 won and corn for 1300 won per kilogram in North Korean markets.

The reason harvests are expected to be more abundant this year is that the North has not suffered from flooding, as it had for the past several years in a row. Therefore, the government has called on the people to take care not to let any grain go to waste as harvesting is already in full swing in Hwanghae and South Pyungan provinces.

North Korean food wholesalers have become the suppliers of rice for markets since the government ceased to ration foodstuffs. They now contract with farms, paying in advance of harvest seasons so that the farms can use the funds to purchase fuel and other supplies necessary for preparing and transporting the food.

Because these traders personally visit the farms to predict harvests and set prices, the information is considered to be relatively accurate. These traders were also the first to predict the jump in prices earlier this year, warning of shortages even before last year’s fall harvest.

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Food, General markets (FMR: Farmers Market), Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Price liberalization, Statistics | 1 Comment »

North Korea juggles South, Japan, Russia, and US

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

The DPRK’s recent efforts to reconstruct the Yongbyon 5MW nuclear reactor seem to have brought implementation of the “second” Agreed Framework to a halt, though it was already behind schedule. This week the US sent Chris Hill to Pyongyang to try and rescue the process which is hung up on verification protocol. The North claims to have sufficiently declared their nuclear capabilities and believe they should be removed from the US list of state sponsors of terror. The US does not believe this condition has been met and seeks to establish a protocol to verify if the North’s declaration is accurate.

Japan is also set to extend sanctions (due to expire) on the DPRK. According to Bloomberg:

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party decided to extend sanctions against North Korea for six months after their Oct. 13 expiration date, Jiji Press reported.

LDP lawmakers agreed to extend the sanctions because North Korea took steps to reactivate its nuclear program and made little progress in an investigation into Japanese nationals abducted by North Korean agents, Jiji reported.

Prime Minister Taro Aso’s Cabinet is likely to endorse the extension by Oct. 10., the Japanese wire service said.

The sanctions include a ban on North Korean imports and the entry of North Korean ships into Japanese ports. The extension will be the fourth since sanctions began after North Korea’s October 2006 nuclear test, Jiji said.

Just as the DPRKs hopes of restoring/establishing relations with Japan and the US start to dim, however, they have reached out to South Korea, with whom political relations had recently gone sour due to the South’s policy change from unsupervised aid provision under the “sunshine policy” to a quid-pro-quo relationship under a “policy of mutual benefits and common prosperity“. Additionally, the fatal shooting of a South Korean tourist in Kumgangsan led to a deterioration in cooperation between the two governments and suspension of the inter-Korean project (a cash cow for the North).

How much was the Sunshine Policy worth to the North? South Korean GNP lawmaker Jin Yeong, who analzed data submitted by the Unification Ministry and the Export-Import Bank of Korea, claims that the Kim and Roh administrations oversaw the transfer of 8.38 trillion South Korean Won in aid and loans since 1998.

Taking office in February 2003 after the second North Korean nuclear crisis emerged in September 2002, Roh doled out 5.68 trillion won to Pyongyang over his five-year term, double that of his predecessor Kim (2.70 trillion won).

Kim and Roh gave to North Korea 2.4 trillion won for building light-water reactors and in food aid; 2.5 trillion won to pin the price of rice aid to that of the global market; 2.8 trillion won for other aid including fertilizer; and 696 billion won in aid from advocacy groups and provincial governments.

In 2003, South Korean aid to the North reached a high of 1.56 trillion won. Then after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il declared that his country had gone nuclear in 2005, the Roh administration sent 1.48 trillion won to the North.

Jin said, “South Korea gave a loan with rice first in 2000. Payments on the loan are deferred for 10 years. Thus, we are to receive the first repayment installment in 2010. But most of the 2.4 trillion won in loans seem irrecoverable.”

PricewaterhouseCoopers Korea audited the fiscal 2007 accounts of Seoul`s inter-Korean cooperation funds, saying, “Considering the characteristics of the North Korean government, grave uncertainty exists over the possibility of redeeming the loans given to the regime. The ultimate outcome depends heavily on the conditions around the Korean Peninsula.”

Since President Lee Myung-bak took office this year, exchanges between the two Koreas have been rare. Still, aid to the light-water reactor and the Gaesong industrial complex projects and civilian donations have continued, amounting to a combined 211.3 billion won. (Donga Ilbo)

It appears the Russians are doing their part to bring the North and South together through a project they can all agree on—building a natural gas pipeline from Russia to South Korea via the DPRK:

South Korea plans to import $90 billion of natural gas from Russia via North Korea, with which it shares one of the world’s most heavily fortified borders, to reduce its reliance on more expensive cargoes arriving by sea.

State-run Korea Gas Corp. signed a preliminary agreement with OAO Gazprom, Russia’s largest energy company, to import 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas over 30 years starting in 2015, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said in a statement. The accord was signed in Moscow during President Lee Myung Bak’s three-day visit that began yesterday.

Gazprom Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller said after talks today between Lee and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that the exact delivery route hasn’t been determined and that shipments could begin as early as 2015.

“Russia suggested a pipeline via North Korea, which is expected to be more economical than other possible routes,” the minister said in a news briefing. “Russia will contact the North to discuss this.”

“Transporting gas through North Korea could be risky for South Korea,” said Kim Jin Woo, a senior research analyst at Korea Energy Economics Institute. “But the project will ease tensions on the Korean peninsula if Russia successfully persuades North Korea” to accept the plan.

North Korea could earn $100 million a year from the gas- pipeline project, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said.

“Russia will supply the fuel in the form of LNG or compressed natural gas if negotiations with North Korea do not work out,” according to the ministry’s statement. South Korea and Russia will sign a final agreement in 2010 when a study on the route is completed.

South Korea is turning to Russia, holder of the world’s biggest proven gas reserves, as it faces intensifying competition for energy resources from China and Japan. Asia’s fourth-largest economy depends on gas for 16 percent of its power generation.

Under the agreement, a pipeline to South Korea will be laid via North Korea from gas fields on Sakhalin Island in Russia’s Far East. The pipeline would initially carry 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year, or about 20 percent of South Korea’s annual consumption. The cost of the gas link’s construction is estimated at $3 billion, the ministry said.

Read the full articles here:
South Korea Seeks $90 Billion of Russian Natural Gas
Bloomberg
Shinhye Kang
9/29/2008

Liberal Gov`ts Gave W8.38 Bln to North Korea`
Donga Ilbo
9/30/2008

Posted in Agriculture statistics, Energy, Finance, Fiscal & monetary policy, Foreign aid statistics, International Aid, International trade, Japan, Mt. Kumgang Tourist Special Zone, Natural Gas, Nuclear, RoK Ministry of Unification, Russia, South Korea, Special Economic Zones (Established before 2013), Statistics, USA | 1 Comment »

New CRS reports on North Korea available

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008

I have updated the list of Congressional Research Service (CRS) reports published on North Korea and posted them here. I have also added a hyperlink under “pages” on the menu tab to the right.

Updates include:
US Assistance to North Korea: July 31, 2008
North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat: January 24, 2008
North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program: January 21, 2008
North Korea’s Abduction of Japanese Citizens and the Six-Party Talks: March 19, 2008
The Kaesong North-South Industrial Complex: February 14, 2008
The North Korean Economy: Leverage and Policy Analysis: August 26, 2008

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Demographics, Energy, Foreign aid statistics, GDP statistics, International trade, Manufacturing, Military, Mining/Minerals, Political economy, Statistics, Trade Statistics, USA | Comments Closed

Chinese official confirms DPRK grain smuggling

Wednesday, September 17th, 2008

Markets work because price increases send entrepreners strong signals of relative scarcity and potential profit opporunities (unless these price increases are caused by inflation). Entrepreneurs who pick up on these signals, then, have a strong incentive to move the desired resources from where they are valued less to where they are valued more.

A Chinese official in Jilin claims entrepreneurs in his province hear these signals loud and clear—and they respond the way humans have for thousands of years–they arbitrage:

The head of the grains bureau of Jilin, the Chinese province bordering North Korea, Zhu Yehui, says a drought in North Korea is very serious, and there is a lot of corn smuggling from China into North Korea.

He says the price in North Korea is more than 10 times the domestic price in China.

I am going to go out on a limb to suggest that these Chinese smugglers (entrepreneurs) are also delivering food more cheaply (on average) than the World Food Program, and I also am willing to wager that they have better access to “sensitive areas.”

Addendum: According to Yonhap North Korea’s grain crop last year reportedly amounted to 4 million tons. The U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization told U.S.-based Radio Free Asia last month that the North will harvest a half million tons less than last year.

Read the full article here:
China reports grain smuggling business active into North Korea
Australian Broadacsting Corporation
9/17/2008

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Food, Price liberalization, Statistics | 1 Comment »

A Dangerous Opportunity in North Korea

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

United Methodist Church: Kentucky Annual Conference
Dr. Bill Moore
7/31/2008

Dr. Bill Moore, the pastor of Southern Hills United Methodist Church in Lexington, was in North Korea May 14-29. The son of United Methodist missionaries, he is a member of a humanitarian aid group called Christian Friends of Korea. He offers a perspective on a deepening crisis.

I traveled to North Korea during the last two weeks of May as a member of a six-person delegation from a non-government organization (NGO) called Christian Friends of Korea. We flew into the capital city of Pyong Yang to confirm the arrival and proper distribution of donated goods, to deliver donors lists and greetings, and to build relationships and trust. The Board of Directors for this group, of which I am a member, is composed of former missionaries to Korea, the children of missionaries, and others with a concern to relieve the suffering and hardships of the people of this grim Communist dictatorship called the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. It is often hard to see the suffering faces of the 23 million North Koreans hidden behind the headlines of international diplomatic struggle and nuclear intrigue. Famine, floods (two devastating events in 2007), and mismanagement have left the nation in economic ruin. Christian Friends of Korea (CFK) has been quietly working in the DPRK for 13 years, meeting some of the most basic needs of thousands of people struggling with the life-threatening, but curable disease of tuberculosis. CFK’s efforts to show love and compassion to people who continue to endure food shortages, poverty, disease, and oppression are building trust and chipping away at long-standing hostility.

North Korea is a beautiful place in May. Everything had greened up nicely. The cottonwood trees had deposited wind-blown piles of downy fluff in the roadways, blanketing the bushes and spider webs. The guest house on the banks of the Taedong River near Pyong Yang where our Christian Friends of Korea Team stayed for most of the visit had a dense backdrop of vegetation, populated by ring neck pheasant, which appeared unfazed by the foreigners nearby and sounded off regularly. The acacia trees were in full bloom.

As we moved through the countryside, the workers on the collective farms were transplanting rice plants into the paddy fields. This is a critical phase of life in the north, and everyone is expected to take part. Backs bent, barefooted workers move slowly across the fields. On the mud dikes of the water-filled paddies there are often patriotic slogans on placards, revolutionary red flags flying, and even sound trucks playing inspirational songs. This idyllic picture of a worker’s paradise belies a truth that is not readily apparent. The coming fall harvest, which is vital to a nation where one-third of the people suffer from malnutrition, is already in jeopardy. Previous large shipments of fertilizer from South Korea have been withheld this year for political reasons. China has pledged to fill the gap, but nothing has arrived yet. Aid workers from other countries told us that the potato crop is already stunted, and predicted that the rice crop will be twenty-five percent less this year. Even in years of good harvests, North Korea still falls about 1 million metric tons short of food, out of an estimated 5 million tons needed. This year the shortfall is expected to exceed 1.6 million metric tons. For those receiving rations, the daily government ration of grain per person was reduced from 250 grams to 150 grams in June. Uncertain food aid, coupled with poor food security (effective agricultural production) means an increase among the populace in susceptibility to disease, particularly tuberculosis, which afflicts an estimated five percent of the North Korean people. In fact, since last year, the registered cases of TB have risen from 52,000 to 100,000 cases.

This was the backdrop for our journey to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea as an NGO working to provide medicine (specifically tuberculosis treatment drugs), medical equipment, farm machinery, vehicles, construction materials and food for the people of the DPRK. The needs are real, and the urgency is intensifying. The Chinese character for “crisis” is composed of two other characters: “danger” and “opportunity.” As we traveled to fourteen different medical facilities, we could see that there is a “dangerous opportunity’ to make a difference in this land, and bring hope to many lives.

Our team was a diverse, ecumenical mix of six people. Our Executive Director, Heidi Linton, grew up in Alaska, married into a famous Presbyterian missionary family, and has effectively immersed herself in the work of Christian Friends of Korea for the last 13 years. By her indomitable spirit, genuine integrity, and meticulous attention to detail for providing aid and assistance, she has endeared herself to the North Korean leaders assigned to us through the Ministry of Public Health and forged a working relationship which is highly effective. Dr. John Somerville, retired Presbyterian missionary, was our official Korean speaker on the trip. A Harvard graduate in Asian studies, Dr. Somerville spent many years teaching in South Korea, and has visited the north on 10 previous visits. Paul Moffett, a pastor at Lighthouse Christian Center in Puyallup, WA, is the great-grandson of pioneer Presbyterian missionary Samuel Moffett, who came to Pyong Yang in 1905. Lee Wheeler is an agricultural engineer from Hesston, KS, representing the Mennonite Central Committee, a CFK partner. He is a greenhouse expert who has also made 10 trips to the DPRK. Terry Smith, Heidi’s able assistant, came from Memphis, TN and now lives in Black Mountain (headquarters of CFK). I rounded out the team. I’m the son of United Methodist missionaries, James and Margaret Moore. My grandfather, Dr. Stanley Martin, was a Canadian Presbyterian medical missionary in China and Korea. I grew up in Seoul, South Korea.

Our purpose in traveling to North Korea for Christian Friends of Korea was to make a “confirming” visit, checking to make sure that the supplies and equipment (more than three million dollars worth sent since January) had been properly received, inventoried and distributed; to present lists of donors to the facility directors; and to build relationships and trust with everyone with whom we had contact. We were accompanied at all times by young government officials who were both personable and efficient, and escorted us to every location. They shared with us a passion and concern for the welfare of their people. Part of this work was to visit two warehouse locations to make sure supplies were moving out to the facilities. This is important also to make way for incoming shipping containers. It is noteworthy that our North Korean counterparts in the Ministry of Public Health value the aid assistance of CFK and a similar NGO so much that they actually built a spacious warehouse just for receiving shipments to be distributed to CFK ministry sites. A forklift sent by CFK donors was in use there. The other main task of confirming was to visit the actual facilities, interview directors, staff, and patients, and assess the priorities and needs of each place. These visits were the heart of our schedule.

A typical trip to one of the hospitals or TB rest homes began with a convoy of vehicles traveling to the locations scheduled for the day. The road surface usually began with paved roads of varying quality that soon gave way to a washboard gravel road, a muddy track snaking up into the hills, or even a rocky stream bed that had to be forded. Once we arrived, we were greeted by the director, doctors, nurses, and various local officials. We would be seated around a table with refreshments provided for the visitors (strawberries, peanuts, tea), introductions would be made, the donor list presented in Korean with an explanation, and Heidi Linton would begin the process of inquiry. What is the current situation in this place? How many TB patients are there? How did the devastating floods of 2007 affect the facility and patients? What are your priorities here? Is there enough food for the patients? Local Communist party officials who attended the meetings were visibly uncomfortable about discussions of flood damage or food shortages. Furtive glances were sometimes exchanged before hospital staff would answer such questions. The stock answer: “The government provides us with food.”

Questions would be asked about the arrival of vitamins, health kits, bedding, laundry soap, Pedialyte, doctor’s kits, hospital beds, and TB medicine. Food shipments of canned meat, soy beans and dry vegetable soup mix were checked on. A list of donors was presented to the directors at each location. New equipment was sometimes delivered, including new electronic microscopes and a “Lab in a Suitcase,” a sophisticated package of diagnostic equipment to identify infected TB patients. Some sites had cargo tri-motorcycles to transport supplies slated for delivery. A new kind of greenhouse, which does not require an additional heat source even in frigid temperatures, was offered at each place. A tour of the facilities meant a chance to meet the patients, to inquire about their health, and to offer best wishes and prayers for swift recovery. Outside, the greenhouses, which are so important for supplementing meager government rations, would be inspected. Walking tractors and bicycles provided by CFK were noted.

One of the highlights of the journey was to see the wonderful progress that has been made in the construction of modern surgical facilities at both the North Hwangae TB Hospital in Sariwon and the South Hwangae TB Hospital in Haeju. The surgical suites, built with the expertise and direction of CFK Technical Teams, feature new anti-microbial tile on the walls, non-skid floor tiles, power conditioners and new electrical wiring, heating/AC, lighting, and new surgical equipment and supplies enabling more complicated procedures and greatly improved surgical outcomes. One patient, who had been brought to Sariwon for an operation from a TB rest home, remarked when he saw the gleaming facility, “I feel like I am cured already!” The result of the renovations is stronger confidence among patients that healing will occur, and the number of patients willing to undergo surgery has tripled. Because of the sterile conditions, post-operative infection has been greatly reduced. Eighty percent of the patients used to have post-op infections. Now it is down to 1 in 5 patients. We also saw the preparations for a similar renovation at the Kaesong Provincial Pediatric Hospital (serving 144,000 children) where the surgery area has been stripped to the bare stones in preparation for the $200,000 make-over made possible by a CFK donor. In earlier days this was a Methodist mission hospital, visited by my grandfather who installed x-ray equipment there in the early 1920’s. At Hwangju TB Rest Home construction is under way to build new facilities that will house150 or more patients. The buildings will replace two others that were destroyed in last year’s floods. They need a roof right away, followed by windows and doors. This is a critical need, and participation from United Methodist Churches would be most welcome in raising funds for this vital construction need.

While there are very encouraging signs of progress at CFK projects, there are specific needs that must be immediately addressed. There is an expected shortfall in TB medicine, especially in terms of DOTS (Directly Observed Treatment Short Course) drugs which, when given under supervision, are very effective. Because of a loss of funding by the World Health Organization, CFK is being asked to provide 12,000 treatments in our regions (North and South Hwanghae and Kaesong) which will cost in excess of $245,000. In response to the deepening food crisis, two 40-foot containers of canned meat will be shipped before the end of the year in a joint effort with the Mennonite Central Committee, who generously provides $500,000 worth of this commodity to CFK projects annually.

Everywhere the CFK Team went on this confirming visit there were expressions of gratitude. When one director was asked what further assistance he needed for his facility, he exclaimed, “You have already sent a lot!” Heidi Linton responded that God in His love had provided these things. The director’s response: “Please send thanks to our Christian friends in America.”

You might be asking: what does the work of Christian Friends of Korea have to do with The United Methodist Church? It is difficult to do any kind of Christian ministry in North Korea since traditional denominational mission work is not allowed, but an effort through a non-government organization makes it possible. When needs are critical, we must find mission partners wherever we can. The mission of CFK also addresses two of the priorities coming out of General Conference: engaging ministry with the poor (preventing starvation) and making the world malaria free, AIDS-free, and tuberculosis free. Here’s a piece of good news—the US government is in the process of shipping a total of 500,000 tons of food to North Korea as a result of some movement in the nuclear negotiations. The United Nations World Food Program will distribute 400,000 tons throughout the DPRK. As a part of this initiative, on June 30 it was announced that the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) office of Food for Peace will work with 5 aid agencies to distribute 100,000 metric tons of food to 550,000 people at risk, mostly children, elderly and nursing mothers, in two North Korean provinces. The agencies involved in this effort are World Vision, Mercy Corps, Global Resource Services, Samaritan’s Purse, and Christian Friends of Korea.

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Christian Friends of Korea, Disease prevention, Epidemics, Food, Foreign aid statistics, Health care, International Aid, Ministry of Public Health, Pediatrics, Statistics | Comments Closed

(UPDATED) UN World Food program gearing up for operations

Wednesday, July 30th, 2008

Update 3: The second shipment of US food aid has arrived in North Korea. Also, DPRK has suffered terrible rains in August. Story here and here.

UPDATE 2: The Daily NK reports some good news on the DPRKs food production:

With the stabilization of food prices in North Korea, which had skyrocketed during the first half of the year, the potato harvest which began at the end of June has been lifting the food burden of the citizens.

A source from North Korea said in a conversation with the Daily NK on the 26th, “In the border regions of North Hamkyung Province the first round of harvesting was successful. Accordingly, the price of new potatoes has fallen below 300 won since mid-July.”

The source added, “In the market in Hyesan, Yangkang Province, potatoes cost 280 won per kilogram. Newly-harvested barley has also been appearing; it’s a huge help to the civilians.”

Until the first week of June, the jangmadang price of potatoes in North Korea was 300 won in Pyongyang, 400 won in Hoiryeong, and 450 won in Chongjin per kilogram.

Regarding the price of rice and corn, the source continued, “In the North Hamkyung and Yangang Provinces, the price of rice is 2,200~2,400 won (per kg) and the price of corn 1,200~1,400 won. Originally, during the collective farm’s harvest distribution in December, 4kg of potato was equivalent to 1kg of corn, so the prices of rice and corn are not actually any more expensive now.”

UPDATE 1: Here (link) are the results of the UN World Food Program/FAO June DPRK survey. Some highlights:

The RFSA covered 53 counties in eight provinces (Ryanggang, North Hamgyong, South Hamgyong, Kangwon, North Hwanghae, South Hwanghae, South Phyongan, Pyongyang). Experts visited hundreds of households, child institutions and hospitals across the country in the most comprehensive assessment on food and nutrition conducted in DPRK since 2004. Key findings indicate:

Food availability, accessibility and utilization have deteriorated sharply since 2007.
Close to three quarters of the households have reduced their food intake.
More malnourished and ill children are being admitted to hospitals and institutions.
Diarrhoea caused by increased consumption of wild foods was one of the leading causes of malnutrition amongst children under five.

The experts found that the majority of the families surveyed have cut out protein from their diet, and are living on cereals and vegetables alone. Food prices have soared — rice now costs almost three times more than a year ago, and maize has quadrupled. Heavy reliance on support from relatives as a means of coping with food shortages is widespread in areas such as North Hamgyong Province, one of the worst affected regions.

Donors to WFP’s current programme in DPRK include the United States (US$60 million), Republic of Korea (US$20 million), Russian Federation (US$8 million), Switzerland (US$6.6 million), Germany (US$3.4 million), Australia (US$4.2 million), UN CERF (US$2.3 million, for CERF see: http://ochaonline.un.org), Multilateral funds (US$1.9 million), Cuba and Italy (US$1.5 million each), Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg and Norway (US$1 million each), Finland (US$737,000), Turkey (US$150,000), Greece (US$ 45,000) and private donors (US$17,000).

ORIGINAL POST: North Korea’s food crisis has been out of the headlines since US food aid arrived a couple of weeks ago followed by the destruction of the Yongbyon cooling tower, six-party talks progress, ASEAN non-aggression treaty, and Kumgang shooting incident. But now that the UN World Food Program is preparing operations, the crisis is back in the news. From the Wahsington Post:

The main U.N. aid agency in North Korea, the World Food Program, will resume emergency operations there in the next two weeks to help feed more than 5 million people over the next 15 months at a cost of $500 million, said Jean-Pierre de Margerie, the agency’s country director in Pyongyang.

“The situation is indeed very serious,” de Margerie said at a news conference in Beijing.

The resumption of emergency operations, which were scaled back in 2005 on a request from the North Korean government, was decided after a U.N. survey last month showed the most severe and widespread hunger among North Koreans in a decade. The survey was taken after the Pyongyang government, in an unusual gesture, officially acknowledged a growing hunger crisis and appealed for international aid.

and

[…] the United States recently pledged to give North Korea 500,000 tons of food over the next six months, most of which will be distributed by the World Food Program as part of its emergency effort. De Margerie said the first delivery, 37,000 tons of wheat, arrived in a North Korean port two weeks ago, and more shiploads are expected soon.

In contrast to past practice, the North Korean government has been willing to allow U.N. aid workers more leeway to monitor delivery of the new food supplies, de Margerie said. Similarly supple oversight rules were negotiated by the United States as a condition for its 500,000-ton donation.

The ballooning food crisis began mainly because of flooding last summer that damaged fields, leading to insufficient crops and soaring food prices. At the same time, de Margerie said, imports dropped dramatically this spring, particularly from South Korea and China.

This exacerbated a perennial shortfall of around 20 percent, or 1.6 million tons, in the amount of food needed to adequately nourish North Korea’s 23 million inhabitants. As a result, prices of such staples as rice, eggs and corn doubled, tripled and even quadrupled, de Margerie said.

Now, de Margerie said, resumption of emergency operations will aim at getting food to between 5 million and 6 million people by September, which is considered a critical period because this autumn’s crops will not have entered the government-run distribution system. Quick donations of about $20 million are needed to get the new program running swiftly, he added.

And where are these funds going to come from. Well, New Zealand has made public its intentions to fund the effort:

New Zealand will provide half a million dollars to the United Nations to help North Korea which is facing a food shortage.

New Zealand previously gave $500,000 via the Red Cross after last year’s floods.

New Zealand established diplomatic relations with North Korea in 2001.

According to Yonhap:

The areas undergoing the crisis include the Hamgyong and Ryanggang provinces, the site said, adding that the World Food Programme plans to launch a new project to address the food needs in these northeastern regions.

Read the full stories here:
U.N.: Millions Hungry in North Korea
Washington Post Foreign Service
Edward Cody
7/30/2008

NZ to give aid to North Korea
National Business Review
6/29/2008

Northeastern NK in serious food crisis: UN Web site
Yonhap
7/26/2008

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Food, Foreign aid statistics, General markets (FMR: Farmers Market), International Aid, Price liberalization, Public Distribiution System (PDS), UN, UN World Food Program | Comments Closed

DPRK economy shrinks for second year: Bank of Korea

Tuesday, June 17th, 2008

North Korea does not publish economic data. The size of North Korea’s economy is estimated by South Korea’s Central Bank (Bank of Korea), the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and other think tanks such as the Sejong Institute (Lee Jong Seok).

According to a recent report by the Bank of Korea, North Korea sufferd its second full year of economic contraction (as defined by GDP), 1.1% in 2006 and 2.3% in 2007. The bank estimates North Korea’s 2007 gross national income (GNI/GNP) at $26.7 billion, per capita GNP at $1,152 (assuming population of 23 million). If you are interested in knowing the difference between GNP and GDP, click here.

Here are some highlights from the report:

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries marked a 9.4% decrease following a 2.6% decrease in 2006

Mining increased 0.4% in 2007, down from 1.9% increase in 2006

Manufacturing increased 0.8%, higher than 0.4% 2006 increase. -1.7% growth in light industry, due to the decrease in food products and beverages. +2.3% growth in heavy industries led by expansion of metal and machinery products.

Electricity, gas & water production increased 4.8%, (+2.7% in 2006), from hydroelectric and steam power generation.

Construction production -1.5%, (-11.5% in 2006), from reduced non-housing construction and civil engineering.

Services +1.7%, (+1.1% in 2006). Hotel, restaurant, transport, post & telecom industry expanded.

Trade volume (goods) fell 1.8% to $2.941 billion, 1/248 South Korea’s. Exports fell 3.0%, imports fell 1.3%.

These estimates are based on trade figures obtained from the Korea International Trade Association, Korea Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, fuel and food aid figures from aid groups such as the International Red Cross and the World Food Program, as well as information provided by frequent visitors.

More information here:
Full report by Bank of Korea and data (recomended)

North Korea’s Economy Shrank in 2007, Second Annual Contraction
Bloomberg
Heejin Koo
6/17/2008

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Bank of Korea, Construction, Copper, Dams/hydro, Demographics, Energy, Forestry, GDP statistics, Hoteling, International trade, Light Industry, Lumber, Manufacturing, Mining/Minerals, Real estate, Restaurants, Statistics, Tourism, Trade Statistics, Transportation | Comments Closed

North Korean Economy Watch