Archive for the ‘Agriculture’ Category

DPRK shipping sugar to Iraq

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

UPDATE: According to the Telegraph (of India):

But it transpired later that the management of the shipping company had asked the Mu San to loiter in Indian waters because they might get a better price for their cargo in India.

UPDATE:  The boat has been moved to yet another port for further inspection: Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh state.  Here is the location in Wikimpia.

ORIGINAL POST: This week there was a worry that another North Korean ship might be carrying military goods to Myanmar in violation of UN sanctions.  Despite the strange behavior of the North Korean crew, the ship appears to be shipping sugar to Iraq!

First–the chase (According to the New York Times):

The ship anchored without authorization in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a territory of India in the Bay of Bengal, last week, according to the Indian military.

Indian officials said it was carrying more than 16,000 tons of sugar bound for the Middle East. But the ship’s proximity to Myanmar, a North Korean ally, and the fact that it had no apparent reason to be in the area raised suspicions.

The coast guard intercepted the ship after chasing it for six hours, and detained 39 North Korean crew members.

After two days of searching and of questioning the crew, India’s Navy and Coast Guard handed the ship over to police and intelligence services, having found no evidence of illegal cargo, according to the Press Trust of India.

Ashok Chand, a senior police officer in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, told Reuters that further tests were being conducted.

But it remains a mystery why the ship was in Indian waters at all.

India has watched warily for signs that North Korea is helping Myanmar build a nuclear reactor.

The investigation turned up some strange detials, but no UN violations.  According to UPI:

A preliminary search showed the ship, as stated by its captain, was transporting 16,000 tons of sugar from Thailand to Iraq, Indian media reports said.

The ship, M.V. Mu San is detained at Port Blair after dropping anchor without authorization off Hut Bay in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal Wednesday.

Mu San sailed off Thailand’s Laem Chabang port July 27 but an investigation showed it berthed in Singapore three days later, although that was not a port of call, and that the crew’s passports were not stamped in Singapore, the Times of India reported.

The report said authorities were interrogating the ship’s captain Yon Jung-sun and the other 38-member crew, with only one or two among them speaking English.

Further information:

1. Here is a great research paper on the DPRK’s merchant fleet.

2. Here are some stats on the DPRK’s flagged fleet from the CIA.

3. Here is the location of Hut Bay, where the ship was anchored.

4. Here is the location of Port Blair, where the ship was taken.

Read the full artilces here:
India searches North Korean ship
UPI
8/9/2009

N. Korean Ship Searched for Radioactive Material
New York Times
Lydia Polgreen
8/10/2009

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North Korea exports total USD $1.13 billion in 2008

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-7-22-1
7/22/2009

According to a report released by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), mineral products again topped the list of DPRK exports, accounting for 41.3 percent of goods sent out of the country last year. The KOTRA report, “2008 DPRK Trade Trends,” states that the North’s 2008 exports, totaling 1,130,213,000 dollars, increased by 23 percent over the 918.77 million USD-worth of goods exported in 2007.

With the exception of plastic and wooden goods, North Korean exports grew in all areas. Mineral products accounted for 41.3 percent; non-ferrous minerals made up 16.8 percent, textiles accounted for 10.6 percent; chemical plastics made up 7.6 percent; electrical and electronic machinery made up 7 percent; and animal products accounted for 3.6 percent.

Mineral goods were up 33.5 percent over last year, recording sales of 465.44 million USD. This sector has shown continuous growth over the last five years. In 2004, trade in these goods brought in 152.28 million USD; in 2005, 243.66 million USD; in 2006, 244.43 million USD; and in 2007, 349.58 million USD.

Since 2003, North Korea has concentrated on invigorating the light-industrial sector, and has emphasized the export of manufactured goods. However, last year, exports of mineral products and non-ferrous minerals combined to make up a total of 58.1 percent of all exports; the North has been unable to restructure its export sector or satisfactorily boost light-industrial manufacturing.

North Korea’s imports grew as well, to more than twice that of exports. Bringing in goods worth 2,685,478,000 USD, imports grew by 32 percent over the 2.023 billion in imports during 2007. In 2008, mineral products accounted for 25.9 percent of imports; fibers accounted for 11.9 percent; electrical and electronic machinery, 11.5 percent; processed food items, 8.8 percent; chemical and heavy industrial goods, 7.5 percent; and non-ferrous minerals, 6.6 percent. Import of fibers, processed food, and mineral products grew, while the import of animal products, vegetable products and automobiles fell.

Crude petroleum, the North’s largest import item, was imported exclusively from China, and was up 46.9 percent (414.31 million USD) over 2007 (281.97 million USD). However, due to the loss of other sources of fuel, overall imports of crude grew by a mere 1 percent.

Import of grains fell in 2008, recording only 86.24 million USD – a fall of 25.6 percent from the 115.86 million USD in grain imports during 2007. KOTRA explains that due to instability in the grain market, imports from China of rice and barley were halted in April, while corn imports were halted in August.

(Note: Here is the KOTRA web page.  It is not a user-friendly site and I was unable to find the report in English.)

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DPRK land rezoning policy

Monday, July 13th, 2009

For at least a decade the DPRK has been rezoning state-owned agricultural land into standard grids.  Here is a good example of the policy as seen from Google Earth (Ryokpho, Pyongyang):

 

     

Before (2000-11-5)            After (2005-8-5)

The Handure Plain is one of the most “popular” areas where this policy has been carried out:

 

handure-plain.JPG

Here are some KCNA stories about the policy:

Rural Community of Korea Conspicuous with True Feature of Socialism
Pyongyang, July 6 [2009](KCNA) — The three revolutions, ideological, technical and cultural, have been pushed ahead and the assistance to and leadership over the countryside by the government stepped up, making it possible to assimilate the peasantry to the working class and industrialize agriculture rapidly and change the looks of the countryside day by day.

The fields under cultivation have been standardized like a paduk (go) board and unique gravity-fed waterways and many dwelling houses have been constructed across the country to convert the countryside into a socialist fairyland good to live in.

Typical of such model farms are the Migok Co-op Farm in Sariwon City, North Hwanghae Province, the Sinam Co-op Farm in Ryongchon County, North Phyongan Province, the Chongsan Co-op Farm in Kangso County, South Phyongan Province and the Samjigang Co-op Farm in Jaeryong County, South Hwanghae Province and others.

The Migok Co-op Farm has constructed dwelling houses in tiers so as to see the vast field and the road leads to each block and each house. A large orchard has been arranged in front of the village and a resting site built on the hill covered with forests.

Wonderful is the landscape of the Ryongchon Plain in North Phyongan Province where life-giving water is flowing along the Paekma-Cholsan Waterway and rice plants are growing well in the standardized paddy fields.

Poman-ri, Sohung County, North Hwanghae Province, was once an out-of-the-way place with nothing to show except wild geese flying over it. But it, with a fishing farm in front of it and a forest of fruit trees in the rear, is now called one of the eight beautiful spots in the Songun era.

The horizon in Handure Plain and sea of potato-flowers at Taehongdan are also well known among the Koreans as ones of the above-said beautiful spots.

Electricity finds its way to all parts of the country and methane gas has been introduced to villages. Increasing in number are apricot tree villages and houses with many pear trees and persimmon trees where all sorts of flowers are in full bloom in spring and are pervaded with fruit aroma in summer and autumn.

While giving field guidance to the Tongbong Co-op Farm in Hamju County, South Hamgyong Province some time ago, General Secretary Kim Jong Il said that the farm village with cozy modern dwelling houses built on a sunny hillside and the co-op fields where green crops are swaying and farm machines are working look like a beautiful picture. He stressed that this is the laudable real feature of our socialist rural community.

Today the agricultural working people of Korea are all out to bring about a turn in the agricultural production with the responsibility for being in charge of the main front for the building of a great, prosperous and powerful nation.

Land leveling and rezoning completed
Pyongyang, May 16 [2000](KCNA) — The appearance of the land in North Phyongan Province, the northwestern part of the DPRK, has changed beyond recognition.

Not only the cooperative fields on the west coast from the 40 km-long Unjon plain and Pakchon plain to Ryongchon plain but the fields in in-between and mountainous areas from Kwanha plain in Nyongbyon and Handure plain in Thaechon to Hongnam plain in Uiju have turned into a vast expanse of fertile rice fields.

At least 50,000 hectares of rice fields were leveled and rezoned into standardized fields, each with a thousand or hundreds of Phyong (one Phyong is six square feet).

Thousands of hectares of land came under plough after the disappearance of a lot of ridges between paddies and swamps.

This great change in the land in north Phyongan province is a shining fruition of the gigantic and bold operation and plan of the great leader Kim Jong Il.

After finding great possibilities of increasing grain production at present in the land leveling and rezoning project, he wisely led the overall project. He set the target and stages of the project and clearly taught details of the project such as order of work to be done, the area of a field and even the issue of increasing the fertility of the rezoned fields. He saw to it that necessary forces and means for carrying out the project were sent there and it was undertaken as a movement involving the entire party and army and all the people.

As a result, the gigantic nature-transforming project was successfully completed under the difficult conditions where the province was hard pressed for everything.

Farming preparations are now in full swing in these fields.

Active land rezoning in North Phyongan Province
Pyongyang, November 30 [1999](KCNA) — Land rezoning is in full force in North Phyongan Province, northwestern part of Korea.

This project is being carried on the basis of the experience of last year’s land rezoning in Kangwon Province with the nation-wide attention and support. Through it, land covering more than 9,000 hectares was readjusted in the last one month.

In particular, the Kangwon provincial workers engaged in land improvement in Tongrim county removed the soil of 1.062 million cubic metres and rearranged 1,100 hectares of land in a short span of time by displaying mass heroism and devotion.

The workers from Pyongyang are now carrying out their daily quota 2 times that in October and have readjusted in the main the Handure plain in Thaechon county covering some 1,600 hectares, in 40 days or 50.

Thus as many as 13,000 fields were reduced to 3,000 fields and scores of hectares of cultivated land obtained.

The workers of Nampho city and North Hwanghae Province in charge of land rezoning in Nyongbyon and Ryongchon counties have achieved successes in their work by introducing working methods suited to the topographical peculiarities and soil conditions.

Thanks to the efforts of the workers from different provinces, the patches are being rearranged into the standardized fields, 1,000-1,500 Phyong each, one after another in every part of North Phyongan Province.

Unfortunately, these types of policies, even if successful, are only a third- or fourth-best option for feeding the people.  These policies will never deliver the levels of food and wealth that are possible through opening up the country to investment and trade.  Even without opening up to foreign investment/trade there are a number of policies the DPRK could enact to increase the efficiency of domestic food markets.  It does not take a nobel prize winning economist to realize that the DPRK does not have a comparative advantage in food production.

UPDATE 1 : A valued reader recently made me aware of this informative article by Aidan Foster-Carter on the topic of land-rezoning (April 19, 2001):

TO ENGAGE or keep your distance? The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush has stirred up the Korean peninsula with its aloof, if confused, attitude to North Korea. But if Bush won’t engage, others will. The European Union, keen to be a player on the peninsula, will send Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson to Pyongyang and Seoul in early May to discuss missiles and mediate.

The goal of engaging North Korea is to force an end to dangerous behaviour. This matter is not merely military. North Korea is now in its sixth year of a food crisis which has cost the lives of at least one million people. Flood and drought may have been the catalysts, but the root problem remains the doubly disastrous mix of rigid planning and the whim of leaders, where pet projects get the lion’s share of resources while less favoured regions and sectors are deprived.

The projects that paved the way for the food crisis included years of the overuse of inorganic fertilizers, which resulted in physical and chemical damage to soil; poorly planned hillside terracing; and the tearing down of forests to plant maize in the mountains. All this on top of the follies of collective farming, restricting private plots and markets.

North Korea is an ecological disaster, with the policies of Kim Jong Il and his father, late leader Kim Il Sung, to blame.

The follies continue. When Persson meets Kim Jong Il, let him ask about land rezoning, a project, more or less, to bulldoze North Korea flat and turn it into farmland. As the official Korean Central News Agency describes it, this is “a grand nature-harnessing work, to level at least 400,000 patches and remove 30,000 kilometres of ridges between rice fields which had been handed down through generations, and repartition them into standardized fields, each covering 1,000-1,500 pyong” (3,300 to 4,950 square metres). In Kim’s plan, 100,000 hectares are due for flattening; 27,000 hectares have already been flattened, “changing their appearance beyond recognition.”

In a speech to the annual Supreme People’s Assembly on April 5, Prime Minister Hong Song Nam made clear the plan was central to the coming year’s priority to “develop agriculture to resolve the food problem of the people.”

The policy was first carried out in marginal farming areas in Kangwon. Kim delivered a speech on the plan in January last year–from the middle of a field. Standing in shiny shoes amid a sea of mud, Kim saw scenic nooks and hillocks bulldozed flat, and rejoiced.

The policy has now spread to Hwanghae, the rice-basket province in the southwest that is crucial to national food supply. On March 25, Vice-Marshal Jo Myong Rok, the country’s top military official, who met President Bill Clinton at the White House last October, led a rally to promote more levelling before rice transplanting begins in May.

The theory: The creation of larger fields will allow the mechanization of agriculture and “free farmers from backbreaking work,” as Kim said in his speech, repeating one of his father’s favourite mantras. But mechanization is a pipe dream when the most hi-tech tool that most workers are armed with is a trowel, and tractors lie rusting for lack of fuel.

THE PROBLEM WITH KIM’S PLAN

The North Korean leader knows this, and has called for “strenuous efforts to repair [them] . . . as has been instructed before”. He has pledged to supply 160 imported tractors, although North Korea is desperately short of foreign exchange and this could hardly help the whole country, just a favoured few.

Kim admits that rezoning won’t raise yields immediately: “It is natural that the fertility of rezoned fields decreases,” he said. So “the soil must be enriched by the application of rich organic fertilizer through a mass movement.”

In fact, Kim has another motivation, and it has nothing to do with yields or labour-saving. “The fields in the Handure Plain . . . have been laid out well in regular shapes . . . . I am greatly satisfied,” he said in last year’s speech. “The plain has been completely transformed . . . . It would be impossible now for a former landowner to find his land, if he were to come with his land register to take his land back. The Handure Plain now looks like the land of a socialist state.” Intriguing that the Dear Leader thinks the landlords who fled in the 1940s, or their children, might come back and claim their own–as has happened in Eastern Europe since communist rule collapsed. Is he afraid?

Worse, in North Korea’s current conditions, the attempt to mechanize agriculture makes no economic sense. Experts including Marcus Noland of the Institute for International Economics in Washington say that Pyongyang should not even try to grow food. Instead, they say, it should seek comparative advantage in exporting light industrial goods, and import grain with the foreign exchange it earns, like South Korea.

As Persson knows, all who aid Pyongyang–and it’s a long list–have the right to insist that policies and practices which killed a million or more North Koreans cease. The EU has added leverage in that it may soon propose the establishment of diplomatic relations with Pyongyang. The UN World Food Programme has its largest operation in the world there, and though other organizations such as Oxfam have pulled out, the WFP and many other non-governmental organizations look to be there for the duration. Yet rather than voice their concerns and insist on tighter conditionality, they have been coy to challenge the irrational policies which caused the crisis and which still go on.

The solution found in China and Vietnam–the development of family farms and markets–offers a good model. In January, Kim hinted that new times demand new methods. In reality, informal markets are the only thing standing between most North Koreans and starvation. But to openly embrace them seems to be too much for Kim Jong Il.

As for land rezoning, it’s a new nadir. The fields of what is now North Korea were shaped by generations of human labour down the centuries, and bulldozing them is comparable to the Taliban’s irreversible destruction of Afghanistan’s prized Buddhas.

What can be addressed is the fact that seven-year-old North Koreans, according to data analyzed by Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, are 20 centimetres shorter and 10 kilogrammes lighter than their southern peers. Persson and Kim should have a lot to talk about.

UPDATE 2: I recently obtained a copy of the North Korean book, Songun Banner of Victory. It referred to the land rezoning program in Kangwon in purely revolutionary terms, stating it had “obliterated the last trace of feudal land ownership”.

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UN World Food Program worried about DPRK

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

According to Reuters:

Countries appear even less willing to give following North Korea’s second nuclear test in May, Torben Due, the U.N. World Food Programme representative in North Korea, told a news conference in Beijing.

“It’s a very sensitive area. I understand to a certain extent why donors are questioning,” he said. “But my angle is as a humanitarian. Being a humanitarian organisation you should look at the needs of the people. WFP does not engage in the political part of it.”

Due said no new donations had been received following that second test.

An appeal for more than $500 million in food aid has been just 15 percent met, meaning a planned relief operation to reach 6.2 million people has been scaled back to target 2 million.

Due, who lives in Pyongyang and was passing through the Chinese capital, told of the human toll of the state’s struggling economy and international seclusion, with mothers and children stunted by starvation.

“We are now in the middle of the lean season in North Korea, where food supplies are low and it’s a very difficult situation for many people in the country,” he said.

“But more importantly it should be noted that we have a situation where a very large part of the population has been undernourished for 15 or 20 years.”

In some parts of North Korea, some women weigh just 45 kg (99 lb) when they give birth, he added, citing a medical survey.

“The children that survive these conditions will be born with compromised immune systems … and that will contribute to their stunting,” Due said. “It’s a problem which goes from one generation to the next.”

Given the DPRK’s prerogatives, however, the US is not inclined to send food aid.  According to the Associated Press:

The United States said Wednesday it is “very concerned” about the North Korean people but cannot send needed food aid without assurances from their Stalinist government that it will reach them.

“We currently have no plans to provide additional food aid to North Korea and any additional food would have to have assurances that it would be appropriately used,” Kelly told reporters.

“We remain very concerned about the well-being of the North Korean people,” the spokesman said.

“But we are very concerned because we need to have an adequate program management in place, monitoring and access provisions and we don’t have that right now,” he added.

He recalled that in March North Korea expelled non-governmental organization (NGO) monitors in line with its decision to reject US food aid.

“At that time we had about 22,000 metric tonnes in storage there. We’ve learned that the DPRK (North Korean) has distributed this food,” Kelly said. 

I have not seen any food prices from North Korean markets in a while.  If anyone has come across any, please send them to me. 

Recent defectors offer a more nuanced account:

The food supply in the North may have improved slightly in the past two years due to better weather, but Jo said food still is hard to come by. “Even last year, we had a campaign in Kangwon province of getting by with two meals a day. Soldiers sometimes would just get three potatoes a day.”

There is a thriving market economy in North Korea at the local level where the average person buys food staples and consumer goods often made in China. Private plots of land are increasingly used for providing food for one’s family, said Cho Myungchul, a researcher who was an economist in the North before defecting to the South 15 years ago. (Reuters)

Read more here:
U.N. says North Korea food aid has dried up
Reuters
Ben Blanchard
7/1/2009

US cannot send food aid to NKorea despites its concerns
AFP
6/1/2009

Life in North Korea: lies, potatoes and cable TV
Reuters
Jack Kim
7/1/2009

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Bank of Korea releases 2008 DPRK economic stats

Sunday, June 28th, 2009

North Korea doesn’t release official economic data.  Since 1991, the South Korean central bank has released its own estimates of the North Korean economy to fill the void.  Its figures are derived from information provided by the ROK’s National Intelligence Service and other sources.  The 2008 statistics can be downloaded here.

According to coverage by the Associated Press:

The North’s gross domestic product for last year was estimated at $24.7 billion, a 3.7% increase from 2007, Seoul’s Bank of Korea said in a news release. The impoverished North’s economy shrank 2.3% in 2007 and 1.1% in 2006.

The central bank said the North’s economic growth was mainly because of “temporary factors” such as favorable weather conditions that resulted in an increase in agricultural production, and the arrival of oil shipments under an international disarmament deal on its nuclear program.

The size of North Korea’s economy, however, was still about 2.6% of South Korea’s, the bank said, adding it was “difficult” to determine whether last year’s growth means the country’s internal economic conditions have improved.

The bank said the North’s agricultural production increased 10.9% last year compared with 2007. The production of coal, iron ore and other minerals expanded 2.3% and the manufacturing industry 2.5%.

…and BBC coverage:

Agricultural production rose nearly 11% in 2008 compared with 2007. And coal, iron ore and other mineral production grew 2.3% for the year.

UPDATE from Business Week:

The surprise underscores the tiny size of the North Korean economy, which could be easily swayed by such factors as weather and outside assistance. Just over two-thirds of the 3.7% growth came from the agricultural sector, and that is heavily dictated by weather. North Korea’s agricultural output increased by 10.9% in 2008 after falling by 12.1% in the previous year as it managed to escape from major floods and drought. Its 2008 manufacturing production also grew by 2.5%, compared with a gain of a mere 0.8% in 2007, thanks to heavy oil supplies by the U.S. and its allies as a result of Pyongyang’s agreement last year to begin dismantling its nuclear facilities.

Even as hope builds in South Korea about a recovery, with the U.S. and China showing signs of revival, prospects for North Korea’s economy are looking grimmer. North Korea’s nuclear test in May and the regime’s missile tests this year have led to an end to outside help and economic sanctions by the U.N. This heralds a poor performance in the manufacturing sector, which will almost certainly face an acute shortage of oil and electricity this year.

Pyongyang can’t count on the agricultural industry for any major contribution to economic growth in 2009, either. Even if North Korea manages to maintain the 2008 grain output of 4.3 million tons, which will be difficult to achieve unless last year’s exceptionally good weather is repeated, it won’t help the economy grow as it starts from a high base.

Those factors make North Korea’s economic growth last year an anomaly. “There’s no indication that North Korea’s growth engine has improved in any fundamental way,” says Bank of Korea economist Shin Seung Cheol. Even with last year’s extraordinary growth, North Korea’s gross domestic product was 1/38 of South Korea’s $935 billion and its trade volume was 1/224 of the South’s $857.3 billion in 2008. As long as North Korea’s reclusive leader Kim Jong Il refuses to open up his country, the gap is bound to keep expanding.

I have collected the most commonly referenced North Korean economic statistics here.

Read more here:
South Korea’s Central Bank Says North’s Economy Grew in 2008
Associated Press
6/28/2009

North Korea’s GDP Growth Better Than South Korea’s
Business Week
Moon Ihlwan
6/30/2009

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North Korea on Google Earth v.18

Thursday, June 25th, 2009

North Korea Uncovered version 18 is available.  This Google Earth overlay maps North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, markets, manufacturing facilities, railroad, energy infrastructure, politics, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, and national parks.

This project has now been downloaded over 140,000 times since launching in April 2007 and received much media attention last month following a Wall Street Journal article highlighting the work.

Note: Kimchaek City is now in high resolution for the first time.  Information on this city is pretty scarce.  Contributions welcome.

Additions to this version include: New image overlays in Nampo (infrastructure update), Haeju (infrastructure update, apricot trees), Kanggye (infrastructure update, wood processing factory), Kimchaek (infrastructure update). Also, river dredges (h/t Christopher Del Riesgo), the Handure Plain, Musudan update, Nuclear Test Site revamp (h/t Ogle Earth), The International School of Berne (Kim Jong un school), Ongjin Shallow Sea Farms, Monument to  “Horizon of the Handure Plain”, Unhung Youth Power Station, Hwangnyong Fortress Wall, Kim Ung so House, Tomb of Kim Ung so, Chungnyol Shrine, Onchon Public Library, Onchon Public bathhouse, Anbyon Youth Power Stations.

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UNICEF maintains operations in DPRK

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009

Although the UN World Food Program was asked to leave the DPRK in March, along with US relief workers, the UN children’s fund (UNICEF) is still distributing relief supplies.  Additionally, the UNDP is about to resume activities.  According to Yonhap:

The U.N. children’s agency said Wednesday its humanitarian aid operations in North Korea remain steady amid diplomatic tensions, and that Pyongyang will soon sign an agreement to allow a nationwide nutritional survey.

“The situation with regard to access and monitoring is the same as it has been in the past,” Gopalan Balagopal, UNICEF representative in Pyongyang, said in an email interview.

“UNICEF undertakes regular field visits to monitor progress of work and holds periodic review meetings with counterparts,” he said.

As part of efforts to improve the health of North Korean children and mothers, the agency will soon sign an agreement with the North Korean government to conduct a nutritional survey across the country, set to start in October, Balagopal said.

“We are finalizing a memorandum of understanding with the government shortly for going ahead with a multiple indicator cluster survey, which will have a nutrition component,” he said.

Another aid agency, the U.N. Development Program, is also preparing to restart its program in North Korea after a two-year hiatus, he said. Four UNDP members came to Pyongyang on May 19, and two of them are staying there, keeping “busy with work for restarting their program,” Balagopal said.

UNDP withdrew from Pyongyang in early 2007 after suspicions arose over North Korea’s misappropriation of development funds.

June is a typically lean period in the North in terms of food security, and UNICEF sees increasing numbers of malnourished children in nurseries and hospitals, according to the official.

North Korea’s harvest this year is expected to fall 1.17 million tons short of food needed to feed its 24 million people, according to the Seoul government. Even if the North’s own imports and Chinese aid are counted in, the net shortage will likely surpass 500,000 tons, it said.

Balagopal said his agency has secured about half of its US$13 million target budget for operations in North Korea this year.

He noted there are “some indications” that access to the provinces in the northeast may be restricted to the U.N. agencies. He did not elaborate and said the U.N. will stop its assistance if the access is not guaranteed.

Read the full article here:
UNICEF aid flowing steady in N. Korea: Pyongyang chief
Yonhap
6/3/2009

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DPRK price data

Friday, May 8th, 2009

Chris Green of the Daily NK offers the following price data (click on image to see full size):

prices-5-8-09.jpg

Source:
The Good, the Bad and the Optimistic
Daily NK
Chris Green
5/8/2009

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Commodity price decreases vs. sanctions

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

Writing in Reuters, Lucy Hornby and Tom Miles point out that the DPRK faces greater economic uncertainty from falling commodity prices than from new sanctions.  Below I have posted excerpts and charts:

Lower commodity prices may prove more painful to North Korea than the tightened sanctions, which will likely blacklist certain firms known to deal in military goods.

“Sanctions won’t have a big effect, they won’t change their actions,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

“There will be no impact on trade with China, which is mostly grains and basic materials … Sanctions may have some influence on luxury goods, but only a weak effect on overall trade volume.”

The isolated country’s $2 billion annual trade with China, equal to about 10 percent of the North’s annual GDP, is its most important economic relationship.

North Korea profited from strong prices for minerals and ores over the last few years, ramping up exports of zinc, lead and iron ore to resource-hungry China.

Most of those exports have dropped again since last summer, in line with sharp decreases in metals prices buffeted by the global economic crisis.

china-trade.jpg

The North’s mineral deposits could be worth $2 trillion, according to an estimate by the South’s Korea Resources Corporation. But dilapidated infrastructure and a broken power grid hinder mining and the transport of minerals out of the country.

The irregular pattern of North Korea’s alumina imports implies that its smelter only runs in fits and starts. Other ore exports are equally ragged, possibly indicating that North Koreans are only digging the easily accessible ores.

Chinese companies that have tried to invest in North Korean mines complain of constant changes in regulations and report that the North tries to tie mining access to commitments to build mills and other industrial projects.

“China and North Korea are friendly neighbors and we will continue to develop friendly cooperative relations with North Korea,” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said on Tuesday after the North’s withdrawal from the six-party talks.

Diplomats’ expectations that China might use trade to influence its prickly neighbor rose when China cut off crude oil shipments in September of 2006, as North Korea prepared to test a nuclear bomb. It had tested ballistic missiles that July.

In fact, energy trade data shows that China is reluctant to apply trade pressure. Increased oil products shipments offset the brief cut in crude supplies in 2006.

“The imposition of these sanctions (in 2006) has had no perceptible effect on North Korea’s trade with the country’s two largest partners, China and South Korea,” wrote Marcus Noland, of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Data since early 2006 show that Chinese crude shipments have in fact been overwhelmingly consistent, at 50,000 tons a month.

china-trade2.jpg

North Korea has imported very little Chinese grain since the 2008 harvest, reflecting the better harvest. Flooding and a disastrous harvest in 2006 and 2007 required heavy imports of grains from China in those years.

Chinese corn shipments to North Korea since August have dropped to 2,670 tons, from 136,595 tons in the previous twelve months and 32,186 tons in the year before that.

Rice and soybean shipments show a similar pattern.

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Read the full story below:
Little leverage left for North Korea sanctions
Reuters
4/14/2009
Lucy Hornby and Tom Miles

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DPRK food prices stable

Monday, March 23rd, 2009

The Daily NK offers some recent food price data from the DPRK:

A defector named Kim, who keeps in touch with his family in the North, reported Monday in a telephone conversation with Daily NK, “The current food prices remain stable, according to sources from Hoiryeong and Pyongyang.”

Mr. Kim explained, “Rice sells in the Hoiryeong jangmadang at between 1,600 and 1,800won, around 200 won lower than before. Other grains and foods have fallen too. Pork sells for 2,800 to 3,000 won per kilogram and corn for 600 won per kilogram. An egg sells for 350 to 500.”

He added that, “Pork sold for about 5,000 won around lunar New Year’s Day and now it sells at half the price. Egg prices have risen a bit; they used to sell for 250 to 350 won. In Pyongyang, the price of rice, which was 2,200 won per kilogram in mid-January, is 1,700 won now. Corn per kilogram fell from 900 won to 750 won.”

He accounted for the lower food prices: In January, to greet the 60th anniversary of the friendship between North Korea and China, Chinese rice came in through Nampo port, so rice prices fell and provision of food increased. Since last year, the authorities have been able to deliver provisions to workers in a few major cities like Shinuiju.

He also relayed news that, “In February, a month’s provisions, 14 kilograms, were delivered to workers and their dependents; corn was provided through food distribution offices.”

Mr. Kim predicted that the situation will be at its worst in May and June of this year, although the food situation is comparatively much better than last year. No matter how good the last harvest was, though, it is not so significant for those who have to buy their food in the jangmadang.”

“Since 1995, food prices have always soared in May and June, the spring shortage season. After the spring this year they will soar again.”

In March or April, food in stock runs out and potatoes, barley, and other vegetables are not harvested until June. Therefore, rising food prices are a chronic spring phenomenon.

Pyongyang must feel reasonably confident, or they want us to think they feel reasonably confident, about current and anticipated food stocks.  As reported last week, the DPRK has requested that all foreign NGOs and aid agencies responsible for distributing food aid to cease operations and head home.

Mr. Kim does offer some good news from North Korea’s markets (Jangmadang).

For some time we have heard news that the North Korean government is attempting to turn the clock back on local markets by regulating who may work in them (older women), when they may openwhat they may sell, and at what price.  All of these restrictions are supposedly part of a plan to break them down and reorient the population towards receiving goods from state-owned shops and the Public Distribution System.  These measures could be part of the “2012 Kangsong Taeguk” plans, or they might simply be part of a longer-term political strategy.

It is rumored that these kinds of regulations have lead to violent backlashes because the socialist economy is not capable of supporting the population, and (paradoxically) markets are considered the social “safety net”.  As a result, these market regulations are often ignored or “bypassed” by local officials and then quietly rescinded.  Mr. Kim offers anecdotal evidence that regulation of the markets has still proven unsuccessful:

“Decrees to close the jangmadang were posted at the entrances but in January they were all removed and the jangmadang operated as usual.”

Let’s hope that this is the fate of more recent regulations as well.

Read more below:
Previous posts on food.

Previous posts on North Korea’s markets.

Food Prices in North Korean Markets Stabilize
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
3/23/2009

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