Archive for the ‘Political economy’ Category

Warring Factions Competing for Power in North Korea

Monday, October 15th, 2007

Donga Ilbo
10/15/2007

Our source on the ground in North Korea informed us that he conducted various interviews with North Korean refuges in China yesterday, and shared this information with a variety of civilian experts on North Korea and the Bush administration officials.

― What was the difference Kim Jong Il showed this time, compared with the 2000 summit?

“He didn’t look good. Chinese, Russian and American exports do not believe that Kim could hold on to power for more than five years. When he’s gone, North Korea will probably get bogged down in a power struggle. That may be a critical moment on the peninsula. The South Korean government has to closely monitor the situations in North and has to prepare itself with diverse contingency plans. Washington does not give much attention to the inter-Korean matters. The Middle East primarily occupies America’s attention. That’s not going to help South Korea.”

– Despite the physical condition, Kim still looked powerful, didn’t he?

“Warring factions are constantly waging hostile power struggles around Kim. Each of them has its own access to arsenals and power to mobilize troops. Also, each faction has a well-established human network. In addition, army generals further divide the army. Diverse personal connections stemming from the old days have transformed into factions. A sudden disappearance of Kim from power will probably spur them into action, putting North Korea in a very dangerous situation.”

– We have noticed the different attitude of Kim Jong Il. He acted differently in the 2000 summit with Kim Dae-jung. What do you say of it?

“Yes, that’s true. First, his lukewarm attitude must have come from his weakened health. Second, he did not expect as much from Roh as from Kim [Dae-jung]. Kim [Jong Il] seems to have considered the recent summit as an opportunity to inform the world of his positions on various issues. Otherwise, he did not want to commit himself to binding promises.”

― Kim seems to have acted differently on the first day of Roh’s arrival compared to the second day. Do you agree?

“We don’t have to overreact to each and every move of Kim. His ailing physical condition may have led to different emotional reactions. On the first day, Kim did not approach Roh and did not smile. I believe he did it intentionally. He must have wanted to show that Roh could not boss him around, and his regime did not need anything.

― What impact, if any, will the recent inter-Korean summit have on Kim Jong Il’s power?

“I don’t think it will have any. Kim is the one who makes the final calls in North. Nonetheless, he has to maintain balance among the factions. In short, he cannot make decisions without considering their opinions. When Roh suggested the withdrawal of troops from the DMZ, Kim declined it vehemently on the spot. The incident demonstrated Kim’s prearrangement with the army and the army’s prior consent to the summit.”

― After the summit, Roh defined Kim Jong Il as competent ruler. Do you agree?

“Kim Jong Il is a shrewd ruler when it comes to internal control. Of course, his regime is immoral and oppressive. Still, Kim maintains his power by controlling and confronting factions against each other. Kim Jong Il is competent only in that respect. But I don’t believe he cares about ordinary North Koreans and their welfare when making policy decisions.”

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North Korean Students Know about Keynes and Freedman?

Thursday, October 11th, 2007

Daily NK
Yoon Il Gun
10/10/2007

A famous professor at Sunchon University in South Korea, Kim Yong Ok, who was invited to the Summit, opened to the public his discussion with Sung Ja Rip, the president of Kim Il Sung University, on October 8th in a JoongAng Daily Newspaper interview.

According to the article, Kim asked President Sung, “Did you study Freeman?” and the Chancellor answered, “Aren’t theories of Keynes and Freedman the basics?”

Seemingly, it sounds as if North Korean college students and intellectuals can freely study about economic theories of modern capitalism or modern thought.

Unfortunately, this is not true. Only cadres of the Party or those favored by the regime could have access to foreign books on modern thinking.

Kim Myung Chul (32, pseudonym) defected from the North while he was still a student at Kim Il Sung University. Mr. Kim’s testimony is as follows.

“There is a ‘closed library’ on the fourth floor of the Grand People’s Study House in Pyongyang. Foreign books at the library are only available for cadres of the Party or VIPs. Chancellor Sung Ja Rip must have read the theories of Keynes and Freedman at ‘the closed library’,” Mr. Kim said.

“There is discrimination in access to books and data against the general public,” Mr. Kim said, “general college students have no chance to study Keynes and Freedman.”

Since Kim Il Sung’s “May 25 Instruction” in 1967, most of books on western literature and philosophy have been burnt or smeared with ink, or pages have been torn out of books. Such vandalism was carried out under the so called “Book Arrangement Activity.” For some time thereafter, the general public had no access to books, even to those related to Karl Marx.

“Pyongyang Foreign Literature Publishing House” began to publish foreign books in 1984. From then on, the western classics in literature were made available. However, books on modern economics and modern thought are accessible only to the Party officials or some special groups at the “closed library.”

Mr. Kim said, “I had a chance to read the classics in North Korea but nothing on modern thought or economic theories. Only state-approved foreign books are readily accessible to the public. Ideologies or theories that seem to challenge the system are thoroughly denounced.”

Mr. Kim added, “In the late 1990s, the state education authorities approved classic economics and classic philosophy for public reading in order to stress the superiority of socialist economic theory and Juche Ideology.”

“In the 1990s, I checked out from library and read the classics such as Marx’s ‘Das Kapital,’ Engels’ ‘Ludwig Feuerbach and the End of Classical German Philosophy,’ ‘The Holy Family,’ and Lenin’s ‘The State and Revolution.’ But the books were so old that the pages were worn out and yellow,” said Mr. Kim.

Mr. Kim also borrowed some books from those who had access to “the closed library.” The books he secretly borrowed and read were “How to Win Friends and Influence People,” by Dale Carnegie, “From the Third World to First” by Lee Kuan Yew and “The Decameron” by Giovanni Boccaccio.

“Only approved literary works are translated and published. Many literary works which do not threaten the current system have been published,” Mr. Kim said, adding “When I was in college, I read many foreign books including novels written by Pushkin, John Byron, Heine, Shakespeare, Moliere, Stendhal, Tolstoy, Dumas, Victor Hugo, and Cervantes”

Unfortunately, Mr. Kim said, “I had never had a chance to read modern novels because only classics were made available. North Korea censors any books or information that it regards as a threat to the system or seems to produce illusions of capitalism.”

“Translations of up-to-date technology and information are weak,” Mr. Kim said, “When college students write their dissertations, they use outdated books as a reference.”

Mr. Kim also recalled that around 2001, it was all the rage among college students in Pyongyang to read “Gone with the Wind” by Margaret Mitchell, and “An American Tragedy” by Theodore Dreiser.”

Ever since the former US President Jimmy Carter gave Kim Il Sung “Gone with the Wind” on video tape as a present upon his visit to Pyongyang in 1994, such American novels have been translated and published.

Kim Myung Chul added, “The authorities approved of publishing such books because they did not consider the books challenging to North Korea’s system or status quo. However, those college students who read the American books loved the opportunity of reading them, for it served as a chance to learn about America.”

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N. Korea sees Koguryo legacy as way to promote inter-Korean relations

Thursday, October 11th, 2007

Yonhap
10/11/2007

North Korea sees the legacy of Korea’s ancient kingdom of Koguryo, which controlled northern Korean Peninsula and northeastern China for more than 700 years, as a means of improving inter-Korean relations and an eventual unification of the two Koreas, a senior North Korean official said Thursday.

“I’m passionate about opening this exhibition, as I am confident that it will further boost our people’s struggle to achieve a unified powerhouse nation and promote the improvement of (North) Korea and Japan relations based on a drastic clearance of their past,”said Hong Son-ok, a North Korean official in charge of external cooperation in cultural cooperation.

Hong made the statement to Yonhap News Agency at a ceremony here to open an exhibition of photos of artifacts of the Koguryo kingdom co-hosted by Yonhap News Agency and Japan’s Kyodo News Service. Hong’s statement was referring to North Korea’s chilly relations with Japan, which colonized the Korean Peninsula for about 35 years until 1945.

The exhibition is taking place at the Korean Central History Museum here amid signs of warming inter-Korean relations just a week after the leaders of South and North Korea held their second summit in seven years.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il “paid special care and courtesy” to the exhibition, Hong said.

It is the first time that the South Korean news agency has hosted an event in North Korea. The exhibition of 121 photographs of tombs and murals of the Koguryo Kingdom (37 B.C.-668 A.D.) continues until Nov. 10, and includes World Heritage sites.

“The murals of the Koguryo kingdom, which controlled the northern part of the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria (northeastern China), are an element that links the people of South and North Korea,”Yonhap President Kim Ki-seo said.

Kim cited the popularity in South Korea of television dramas and literature featuring the ancient kingdom, which he referred to as a spiritual root shared by the two Koreas. Kyodo’s president, Satoshi Ishikawa, was also on hand at the opening ceremony.

About 100 Pyongyang citizens attended the ceremony with most of the women guests wearing Korea’s colorful traditional costume, hanbok.

Citizens expressed pride in their ancient legacy.

“It’s a centennial powerhouse in the East,” a North Korean said. “We should inherit the great spirit of our forefathers and develop our nation into a unified powerhouse.”

Horse-riding warriors of Koguryo dominated politics and culture in Northeast Asia until they were defeated by joint attacks from the southern Korean kingdom of Silla and China’s Tang Dynasty.

The Koguryo people left paintings on the walls and ceilings of tombs depicting their daily lives and mythical beliefs. A mural from Anak Tomb No. 3 shows a vivid image of a woman in white stirring soup in a big pot in a kitchen beside a meat storeroom. Other murals show a hunting scene of horse-riding warriors and a nobleman enjoying an acrobatic performance.

A total of 107 Koguryo tombs have been discovered, 76 in and around the North Korean capital of Pyongyang and the rest around the North Korean border with China.

As much of the kingdom was located in what is now northeastern China, Chinese scholars have recently begun claiming that the Koguryo kingdom is part of Chinese history. Last year, Yonhap and Kyodo co-hosted an exhibition in Seoul of photos that Kyodo took at Koguryo tombs in North Korea.

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Washington Considers Representative Office in Pyongyang

Thursday, October 11th, 2007

Korea Times
Yoon Won-sup
10/11/2007

The United States is considering setting up a representative office in Pyongyang as a diplomatic mission, according to a report Wednesday.

Radio Free Asia said the United States will set up a diplomatic mission in Pyongyang, and its form would most likely be a representative office, not a liaison office or an embassy.

The U.S.-based media quoted a source as saying that the U.S. government and Congress are discussing the level of a diplomatic mission in Pyongyang, which will depend on progress in North Korea’s dismantlement of its nuclear weapons program.

Washington reportedly plans to remove North Korea off its list of terror-sponsoring states this year after North Korea disables its nuclear facilities and declares all its nuclear weapons programs. After the removal, the United States will likely begin the process of normalizing relations with North Korea, according to the report.

Experts showed optimism on the moves to normalize relations with North Korea.

A U.S. official who worked on the creation of a diplomatic mission in Pyongyang in 1994 told the radio station that it would be good for Washington to have representation in North Korea in order to understand it.

The official stressed that the absence of a mission may lead the United States to make policy based on wrong information.

However, the experts agreed that the prerequisite for the diplomatic mission was the denuclearization of North Korea.

“It is not so meaningful a debate to discuss whether to set up a representative- or embassy-level mission in Pyongyang because there will be a U.S. Embassy in the end,” a senior Korean government official said. “But the more important thing is that North Korea moves toward denuclearization for this to be realized.”

The United States promised to establish full diplomatic relations with North Korea, depending on North Korea’s actions toward denuclearization on the Oct. 3 agreement reached at six-party talks involving the two Koreas, the United States, China, Russia and Japan.

U.S.-North Korea relations have recently been improving. In early September, Christopher Hill, the top U.S. negotiator to the talks, had a successful meeting with his North Korean counterpart Kim Kye-gwan in Geneva on the normalization of relations.

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Gov’t refrains from using “reform, openness” to describe Kaesong industrial park

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007

Yonhap
10/10/2007

The Unification Ministry has dropped the words “reform and openness” to describe the South Korea-invested industrial park in the North’s border town of Kaesong from its Web site in an apparent bid not to provoke the North.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il complained in the second-ever inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang last week that South Korea has been using the Kaesong industrial park as a scheme to force reform and openness in the communist North, whereas Pyongyang had gained little from the inter-Korean economic cooperation project.

President Roh Moo-hyun responded by saying in the North Korean capital that North Korea should not be described as a subject of reform and openness.

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Reports cite high cost of North business

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007

Joong Ang Daily
Limb Jae-un
10/8/2007

Days after both Koreas vowed to heighten cooperation, a lawmaker said yesterday in a report that the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the experimental site combining South Korean technology and North Korean labor, has been unprofitable so far.

In addition, the Ministry of Construction and Transportation said in a report yesterday that repairs to the airport on Mount Paektu will cost 280 billion won, or $304 million.

One of the agreements signed at the inter-Korean summit Thursday calls for allowing South Korean tourists to visit the scenic mountain on the Korea-China border.

“In terms of the runway length, Samjiyon Airport can accommodate large airplanes, such as a Boeing 747, but the condition of the airport is bad,” said an official of the construction ministry, who asked for anonymity. The airport, located on a plateau 1,000 meters, or 3,280 feet, above sea level, needs advanced navigation facilities, he said.

Despite the optimistic discussions during last week’s summit, inter-Korean economic cooperation has so far had dismal results, according to a report from Grand National Party Representative Lee Han-koo. Thirteen out of 16 companies operating at the Kaesong Industrial Complex are currently in the red, he said. Their debt is four times higher than their assets, he said. The combined assets of the 16 companies is only 4.5 billion won and their average annual sales is 790 million won.

“The biggest problem of the economic cooperation is that the relevant information has been held back from the public,” Lee said.

Meanwhile, a top European official said North Korea must go through serious reforms to become a viable investment destination for Europe.

North Korea is unattractive for Europe because “the conditions for investment are not safe enough and the regulatory environment is not predictable,” Guenter Verheugen, the EU Industry and Enterprise Commissioner, said in an interview with The Associated Press on Saturday.

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Sound economics

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007

Joong Ang Daily
Jo Dong-ho
10/9/2007

The summit meeting was quite successful. Some say it was because North Korea’s nuclear program was not on the agenda. Relinquishing its nuclear ambitions is the North’s card for normalizing ties with the United States and receiving rewards.

Costs cannot worry us either, because South Korea’s economy has grown so much that we can now pave a road even for a village on a remote mountain. If the size of government projects for culture cities or innovation cities were reduced, we would have trillions won, or billions more dollars, available.

As an economist, I would like to focus on roles of the government and the market discussed in the summit meeting. The ultimate question of economics can be summarized as how the market and the government will divide their roles to get maximum benefits out of limited resources.

The economics of past 200 years concludes that the best way is for the private sector to make independent decisions in economic activities and for the government to manage the rules so that those activities will be carried out fairly and smoothly. This can be likened to the relationship between players and referees in a sporting event.

The same principle applies to economic cooperation between South and North Korea.

Easing military tension, which will reduce the risk of investing in North Korea, is something that only the government can do. Repairing railways and roads is also the responsibility of the government. To improve transportation, communication and customs are the same. The private sector cannot do those jobs on its own.

However, building a shipyard or developing tourism on Mount Baekdu is for the private sector to carry out. But as these projects were agreed upon in the summit meeting, they must be carried out without feasibility studies. These projects were being discussed even before the summit meeting.

Private companies have been interested in them for years, but they have not made the decision to pursue them for many reasons, including low profits. Now the leaders of the two Koreas have made an agreement so these projects must be carried out. North Korea will probably make more unreasonable demands. The South Korean government will have to provide subsidies, and that will increase the burden on the South Korean people.

Some may find it disturbing that I criticize a few projects when there were many other good agreements reached. But these projects show the South Korean government’s basic view on economic cooperation with the North.

In fact, in all the projects agreed upon, there is a vague guideline for the division of roles between the government and the market. The same is true with the agreement to complete the first step of construction at the Kaesong Industrial Complex earlier than planned and to start the second step. The Hyundai Asan Corporation and the Korea Land Corporation are the ones doing the industrial park project, not the government.

These companies have their reasons for managing the industrial park project in its first stages. The government cannot and should not agree to implement the project at a faster speed. After North Korea tested its nuclear bomb, there was pressure to halt that project. Then the government said it could not intervene because it was led by the private sector. But the government has now agreed to complete it at an earlier date.

Some maintain that these agreements will improve inter-Korean relations so there is no use in dividing the government and the market. But it is more important that economic cooperation between South and North Korea improves properly than quickly. Let’s say the improvement of economic cooperation between South and North Korea is of the utmost value so the government can lead economic projects. But there must be good reasons for the government to intervene in the market.

The government has said until now that it supported economic co-operation with the North in an attempt to induce North Korea to open its doors and reform its economy. But that no longer sounds like enough. When providing assistance, the supporter must make sure that the party that receives assistance tries to stand on its own. But the president said we should not mention this in the summit meeting.

Six months ago, at an event for businessmen in the fisheries industry, the president said the government would provide support if need be, but what is most important is their own will and efforts.

One of President Roh’s strengths is that he is not afraid to say what he needs to say. That he could not say what he had to say to Kim Jong-il is what is most regrettable about the meeting.

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Most N. Koreans Don’t Receive Rice Aid From South

Tuesday, October 9th, 2007

Korea Times
10/9/007

Most impoverished North Koreans do not have access to food aid sent by South Korea due to corruption and lack of proper monitoring, a human rights group said Tuesday.

“Many North Korean defectors have said they heard about a considerable amount of food aid from South Korea, but they have not received any of it,” said Kay Seok, a researcher for the United States-based non-governmental organization Human Rights Watch, citing North Koreans who recently defected from one of the world’s poorest countries.

The remark comes amid accusations by critics here that hundreds of thousands of tons of South Korean rice aid may be funneled each year to the North Korean military and elite groups.

The Roh Moo-hyun administration, which has engaged the communist North despite Pyongyang’s detonation of a nuclear bomb in October last year, has often been criticized for failing to ensure that the food aid is distributed to those in need.

In an interview with Washington-based Radio Free Asia, Seok said the food aid is sold for profit in the North, stressing that South Korea needs to demand proper monitoring to ensure that the aid reaches the intended recipients.

One of the reasons that South Korean food aid does not reach poor North Korean people is that the food is given to privileged people or sold for profit by them, she explained.

“At the moment the food aid arrives at the port, merchants flocked about and buy it with U.S. dollars,” she said.

“In the course of the shipment to the final destination, shippers, stationmasters and high-ranking officials take the food either for themselves or for sale. Even sentinels take it,” according to defectors who witnessed it, she said.

South Korea has been providing North Korea with food aid since the mid-1990s. It resumed shipping aid to North Korea in June after a hiatus of more than one year as the North began taking steps toward nuclear disarmament. The promised aid, which consists of 400,000 tons of rice, will be delivered over the coming months.

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People Who Cross the River

Sunday, October 7th, 2007

Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
10/7/2007

The Chinese-Korean border is easy to cross, and it is clear that numbers of the defectors are kept small only by security measures undertaken by the North Korean side. However, the story of the region is essentially the story of the cross-border movement. Technically, the narrow Tumen and relatively broad Yalu divide the territories of two different countries. However, both banks of the Tumen are inhabited by the Koreans, and for large part of the last century neither state was either willing or able to control the border completely. It has been porous for decades, and in a sense it remains porous nowadays. The cross-border migration, legal or otherwise, has never stopped completely.

It might sound strange now, but until the late 1970s North Korea was seen by the Chinese as a land of relative prosperity, so the refugee flow moved from China to Korea. In the 1960s many ethnic Koreans fled the famine and the madness of the “cultural revolution,” looking for a refuge in Kim’s country. There, at least, people were certain to receive 700 grams of corn every day. Many of those early refugees eventually moved back, but only a handful were persecuted by the Chinese authorities. In most cases the returned migrants just resumed the work at the factories and people’s communes where they had worked before their escape. This movement was large, it involved few ten thousand people at least, and many of those people were saved by their sojourn in North Korea.

This episode, not widely known outside the area, is still well remembered by the Chinese. Many of my interlocutors explained their willingness to help the North Korean refugees in the following way: “When life was harsh here, they helped us. Now it is our turn.”

The Chinese border protection system has always been quite lax, but from the 1970s North Korean authorities have tried to the keep border tightly controlled. However, all their efforts could not prevent a massive exodus of the North Koreans, which began around 1995.

In those years North Korea was struck by a disastrous famine which led to massive deaths. The number of its victims has been estimated at between 250,000 and 3,000,000 with 600-900,000 being probably the most reliable figure so far. The northern parts of the country, adjacent to the border, were the hardest hit.

So it comes as no surprise that many North Koreans illegally moved across the border to find work and refuge in China. Around 1999 when the famine reached its height the number of such people reached an estimated 200-300,000.

This movement was not authorized, but from around 1996 Pyongyang authorities ceased to apply harsh penalties to the border-crossers. Until that time, an attempted escape to China would land you a prison for years. From the late 1990s, an escape to China was treated as a minor offence. It is even possible that the North Korean authorities deliberately turned a blind eye on the defectors: after all, people who moved to China were not to be fed, and also, being most active and adventurous those people would probably become trouble-makers had they been forced to stay in North Korea.

A vast majority of those refugees stayed in the borderland area where one can survive without any command of Chinese (the ethnic Koreans form some 35% of the population, and Korean villages are common). The refugees took up odd jobs, becoming construction workers, farm hands, waitresses and cooks in small restaurants. The authorities hunted them down and deported them back to North Korea, but generally without much enthusiasm, since both low-level officials and population by and large was sympathetic to the refugees’ plight. The older Chinese know only too well what it means to suffer from famine.

Most of the refugees were women, some of whom married the local farmers – usually those who would not find a wife otherwise. In most cases it means that they were paired with drunkards, drug addicts or gamblers, but in some cases their partners were merely dirt-poor farmers. These marriages were not usually recognized by Chinese law since these women, technically speaking, did not exist. In some cases, they saved enough money to bribe the officials and had a Chinese citizen ID issued. If this happened, a refugee woman changed her identity, becoming a Chinese national.

Nowadays, the refugees’ number has shrunk considerably, even though old figures are often uncritically cited by the world media. Nowadays, people in the know believed that between 30-50,000 North Koreans are hiding in China.

Why did their numbers go down recently? There are few reasons for that. To start with, a remarkable improvement of the domestic situation in North Korea played a role, but most people with whom I talked to in China in July agreed that the major reason for this change is the revival of the North Korean border security in recent few years. Until 2004 or so, North Korean authorities usually turned a blind eye to mass exodus of their people to China. Now their position has changed. They understand that the border serves as a major conduit for unauthorized information about the outside world, and now this information is becoming dangerous. They also believe that the famine is over, so people can be fed if they stay in North Korea. So, it seems that the era of large-scale illegal migration is over. Nonetheless, history of the region indicates that this movement is unlikely to ever be stopped completely.

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North Korea on Google Earth

Saturday, October 6th, 2007

Version 5: Download it here (on Google Earth) 

This map covers North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, manufacturing facilities, railroad, energy infrastructure, politics, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, and national parks. It is continually expanding and undergoing revisions. This is the fifth version.

Additions to the latest version of “North Korea Uncovered” include updates to new Google Earth overlays of Sinchon, UNESCO sites, Railroads, canals, and the DMZ, in addition to Kim Jong Suk college of eduation (Hyesan), a huge expansion of the electricity grid (with a little help from Martyn Williams) plus a few more parks, antiaircraft sites, dams, mines, canals, etc.

Disclaimer: I cannot vouch for the authenticity of many locations since I have not seen or been to them, but great efforts have been made to check for authenticity. These efforts include pouring over books, maps, conducting interviews, and keeping up with other peoples’ discoveries. In many cases, I have posted sources, though not for all. This is a thorough compilation of lots of material, but I will leave it up to the reader to make up their own minds as to what they see. I cannot catch everything and I welcome contributions.

I hope this map will increase interest in North Korea. There is still plenty more to learn, and I look forward to receiving your additions to this project.

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