North Korean Economy Watch

Daily NK
Park Hyun Min
12/28/2007

The future dream of North Korea’s teenagers is no longer to become party leaders or soldiers, or even join the Party, but to become “merchants.”

“Good Friends,” an aid organization for North Korea, said through “Today’s News on North Korea” No. 104 on the 27th, “Most of the elementary and senior middle school students nowadays, upon being asked what they would like to do post-graduation, say they would like to be merchants.”

The source relayed, “Many of their peers have stopped going to school and have started doing business. It is too burdensome for some students to attend school, so they sell noodles or vegetables by sticking around the jangmadang (markets) and contribute to their families’ livelihoods.”

(more…)

Yonhap
12/27/2007

South Korea plans to develop two resource rich regions in North Korea that can benefit both countries and fuel cross-border economic cooperation, the government said Thursday.

The blueprint calls for more funds to be funneled into North Korea so prospective developers can conduct geological surveys and compile detailed data for future reference, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said.

Resource-poor South Korea imports most raw materials to operate its heavy industry-centered economy. Lack of social infrastructure and mining knowhow have prevented North Korea from fully developing resources.

(more…)

Eugene Bell Foundation
Fall 2007 newsletter

Medical Support for Individual Patients Now Possible

The Eugene Bell Foundation, a non-governmental organization that provides medical support for North Korean tuberculosis (TB) patients, announces that countermeasures are urgently needed for the recent increase of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients in North Korea.   

After years of visiting and providing TB medicines for TB Care Centers in North Korea, EugeneBell estimates that over 30% of all TB patients in the country may be infected with MDR-TB. Evidence suggests the number of patients is increasing year-by-year.  

In response to this growing crisis, the delegation visited six different North Korean TB Care Centers in early 2007 and collected sputum samples from 20 patients thought to be infected with MDR-TB and brought them to South Korea for study. The test results identified at least two or more strains of MDR-TB virus in over 60% of the samples.   

In response, EugeneBell began a support program for MDR-TB patients when a delegation returned to North Korea (November 15 – 27, 2007). This fall, a follow-up delegation delivered a six-month supply of special MDR TB medication for the patient’s diagnosed with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis.  

As part of the new support program, EugeneBell and North Korean medical authorities have agreed to establish special wards for multi-drug resistant patients in four long-term care facilities. One center will be located in each of the following locations: North Pyongan Province, South Pyongan Province, Nampo City and Pyongyang City. These MDR wards will serve as centers for treating patients who do not respond to regular tuberculosis medications.

“Multi-drug resistant tuberculosis is a deadly, contagious disease that can spread resistant strains of tuberculosis that are extremely difficult and expensive to treat,” states Dr. Linton, EugeneBell Chairman. “Because MDR-TB threatens the health of every citizen, steps must be taken as soon as possible to meet this challenge.”

Unfortunately, even short-term countermeasures to meet the spread of MDR-TB in North Korea are difficult because no in-country testing facilities are available today. An even greater barrier to an effective national MDR program is the high cost of MDR medications. While it takes only six months to treat and cure a case of ordinary TB, MDR-TB requires at least 18 month, and special drugs that cost nearly 100 times as much as regular tuberculosis medications. In order to solve such difficulties, EugeneBell will initiate a ‘One-by-One MDR-TB Patient Support Program’ beginning in 2008.  This program will connect one patient in North Korea with individual donors to insure that each patient in the program receives the necessary support for long-term treatment.

Dr. Linton notes, “This small but significant start toward an effective MDR-TB program for people in North Korea that will begin with 20 patients and grow as additional support becomes available. Every human life is precious. While we hope we can eventually reach all MDR patients in North Korea, just saving one person who would otherwise die from this dreaded disease is well worth the effort.”

“North Korean medical professionals are delighted with the new program. Doctors who formerly had no effective way of helping their patients who failed to respond to ordinary tuberculosis medications now have hope that even the most ill tuberculosis patient may be saved. The enthusiasm with which they pitch in to collect sputum samples from their most difficult cases is heart-warming” continues Dr. Linton.

Dr. Park Seung-kyu, Director of Masan National Tuberculosis Hospital in South Korea, will make his hospital’s state-of-the-art research facilities available for testing sputum samples from North Korea. “As a matter of fact, MDR-TB is considered a serious problem not only for North Korea but also for South Korea and the world,” says Dr. Park. “There is a need for experts from both South and North Korea to discuss countermeasures together for the treatment of MDR-TB on the Korean Peninsula”

A EugeneBell delegation just returned from visiting thirteen medical institutions located in North Pyongan Province and Pyongyang City. Next spring, a follow-up delegation will deliver medications for the patients who provided samples this autumn.

EugeneBell also started two other pilot programs in 2007, one for mothers and infants and another for school-aged children. These will provide a steady stream of assistance through ‘Mother and Infant Packages’ and ‘Children’s Health Packages’ to three local hospitals, one in North Pyongan Province and two in South Pyongan Province.

Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
12/11/2007

The number of day labor jobs offered by private parties is gradually increasing in the North. Unlike those with full time jobs at State-run factories, individuals with day labor jobs work by the day.

According to inside sources and many defectors who came to the South earlier this year, individuals looking for day labor jobs normally work as gold miners, construction workers in cities, as luggage carriers for train passengers and maids.

In North Korea, these day laborers are called “Bulbulee (which means a person sweats for labor),” “Sakbari (which means a person waiting for wages)” or “Ilkkun (workers).” It is reported that there are day labor hiring centers in big cities and around the closed mining areas.

Daily laborers’ wages vary based on the type of work. Laborers working at gold mines are provided with housing and food and get paid 1,500 North Korean won per day. In the city construction sites, skilled laborers such as plasterers earn 2,000 won daily whereas unskilled laborers make less than 1,000 won. Daily laborers are making good money compared to factory workers whose average monthly wages fall between 3,000 and 5,000 won.

Kim Yong Chul (pseudonym), a defector who used to work as a day laborer at a mine in Hoichang of South Pyongan Province said, “Since 2004, day labor hiring centers started to appear in the jangmadang (market) of Hoichang. Employers hired young men and women in good health on the spot and took them to workplaces.” He used to work at a mine well-known across the country since the Japanese colonial period. Mr. Kim said, “Day laborers not only dug for gold but were also mobilized to build or fix houses for their employers.”

In Hoichang, there are some gold mines closed by the authorities that were thought to be tapped out. In the mid 1990s, some locals dug the mines again and made a great fortune. Years later, around 2003, these locals began looking out for workers and started hiring individuals from other provinces. Now the county has a great number of day laborers from various provinces working at mines.

Good Friends, the Seoul-based relief organization dedicated to North Korea, said in a recent report, “On October 23rd at around 10 A.M., a gold mine in Hoichang of South Pyongan Province collapsed, leaving three miners dead and two wounded.” In the North, private parties are banned from trading gold and pine mushrooms by law, and only the State can make these types of transactions. However, it is well known that many officials in charge of enforcing the ban frequently take bribes and allow those who pay them to dig for gold in closed mines.

Gold miners usually stay underground between 15 to 30 days each time they begin a mining operation. The miners dig up the ore, crush it using a machine called a Maguanggi (ore-polishing machine) and apply mercury to extract gold. The whole process is done in underground tunnels, and the processed gold is sold to gold dealers in Pyongsung and Sinuiju.

Individuals who run the crushing machine are laborers from other provinces, and most of them are females. With food and housing provided by their employer, they make 1,000 won daily. If they work year-round this way, they can earn decent money.

45-year-old Park Jong Moo (pseudonym) who came to the South this year said, “I earned 2,000 won per day when I worked as a plasterer, building a house for a man who made his money from trade in Chongjin City.”

Mr. Park’s son worked as a cargo porter at the Chongjin railway station. Since there were so many “Sakbari (referring to cargo porters working for daily wages)” at the station, competition among “Sakbari” was fierce. Normally, these porters made less than 1,000 won per day.

It is becoming popular among party cadres and the new wealth to have a maid who does housework and takes care of children. These people introduce the maid to their neighbors as a ‘distant relative’ because having a maid is unthinkable in the Socialist North. While performing maid services and getting paid for the work that she does, the maid pretends to be a family member and acts as if she is merely helping out with the housework.

A source inside the North said, “There was once a party official in Chongjin who employed a girl as a maid after having paid her parents. When the official was accused of having a maid, the official said she was a ‘relative.’”

Regarding the rise in day laborers, an expert on North Korea says, “Those North Koreans who made a fortune from mining or trade privately employ laborers to further expand their businesses…However, since the regime will never allow the rich to become too powerful, it will begin to regulate the employment activities of private parties at the proper time.”

Institute for Far Eatern Studies
NK Brief No. 07-12-5-2
12/7/2007

Kim Yang-gon, head of the DPRK Workers’ Party Unification Front department, led a North Korean delegation to the South, and after two nights and three days, returned to the North on December 1. The last time a North Korean head of the KWP’s Unification Front department visited the South was seven years ago, when, in September 2000, Kim Yong-soon visited Cheju Island. Government authorities are saying that Kim’s trip to the South was publicized in order to facilitate the smooth implementation of the 2007 inter-Korean Summit Declaration

On the day Kim’s delegation arrived, the group visited the Songdo Free Trade Zone, where he and his delegation were moved by a presentation by officials explaining the value of an Inchon-Kaesong-Haeju ‘West Sea Belt’. On the second day, the group visited Daewoo shipyards in Koje, the Busan Customs House, and other facilities.

The trip was reminiscent of when DPRK Cabinet Prime Minister Kim Young-il led a group of more than thirty North Korean entrepreneurs to Vietnam last October, spending four nights and five days walking around tourist areas, an export-processing zone, port facilities, and other industrial areas.

The Unification Front department is but one department within the Workers’ Party responsible for policies toward the South and other countries. Unlike the foreign liaison department, Office 35, and the strategy office, the Unification Front operates openly, but distribution of propaganda leaflets, management of pro-North groups, enticement of overseas Koreans, and other activities are also underway.

The trip South by Kim’s delegation happened just before ROK presidential elections, and highlights the fact that there is barely a month left before North Korea must have its nuclear program frozen and fully disclosed. Kim’s trip to the ROK was promoted and publicized from the beginning, but little information was given to the press, other than coverage of tours of economic facilities.

Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
12/4/2007

An internal source conveyed on the 30th that due to an extreme decree which prohibits all sales of medical goods, the suffering of citizens has been increasing.

The source maintained that “In August, the sale of medical products was banned, and by the start of anti-socialism inspections in September, no medical products could be found in the jangmadang.”

The North Korean authorities have long since stated its position in prohibiting the sale of medical goods, saying that the sale of medical goods in the jangmadang is a show of democracy that undermines the national medical system. However, regulations usually never went beyond formalities.

Recently, however, anti-socialism inspections have been conducted on a large-scale in Yankang with the theme of “Abolishing capitalist trends in the market.” Medical products, which are mostly from China and South Korea, have been regulated more aggressively. Some have said that the authorities have strengthened regulations due to frequent incidences involving Chinese sub-standard medical products.”

With the harbinger of regulation of medical products, pharmaceutical vendors have sold medical products to their acquaintances on a limited basis. The price has increased significantly as well. Chinese-made aspirin, “Zhengtongbian”, which costs 20 North Korean won per pill, has hiked up to 30 won. A bottle of anti-diarrhea medicine has increased from 150 won to 300 won and penicillin from 120 to 200 won.

Especially the smuggling of Electrolyte Solution, used in IV’s to hydrate hospital patients, has stopped due to regulations, causing a jump in price.

From mid-August to the end of October, the anti-socialism inspections in Hyesan, Yankang were cooperatively conducted by the central Party, the Prosecutor’s Office, the National Security Agency and the People’s Safety Agency. Along with the strict regulation of cell phones, the market, and capitalist “corruption,” the medical goods ban has cast a heavy burden on the civilians.

“Good Friends” reported in October that “Thirty people have been incarcerated as a result of the anti-socialism inspections in Yankang since mid-August, and regulations have tightened.”

When the sale of medical products completely ceased in the markets, citizens and doctors who must treat their patients have been extremely disgruntled.

The source said, “People have to go to the homes of pharmacists in order to buy medicine, but they cannot if the pharmacists do not know them personally. The price has increased dramatically due to the regulations of medicinal products.”

“Even hospitals do not carry medicine and there is no way to procure them, even at doctors’ request.” Doctors have complained, saying “Are we supposed to just sit by and watch the sick people?”

A majority of medical products that could be found in the markets were Chinese-made contraband goods. In some cases, Party leaders or army hospital leaders have illegally procured medicine as well.

The source commented that when civilian discontent rose, the Party Municipal Committee explained the cause of the cease in sale of medical goods as, “In a socialist society, hospitals have guaranteed medical goods, but during this temporary time of suffering, some immoral people have hoarded the national medical supply and are making a profit.”

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 07-11-30-1
11/30/2007

The first bi-monthly magazine reporting internal news directly through North Korean undercover journalists was launched on November 20th. The Korean language magazine, “Rimjingang,” is also expected to launch in English and Japanese by the end of this year. The inaugural issue contains interviews with staff members of the central state enterprise on current North Korean economic issues, public sentiment following the North Korean missile launch last year, interpretations of the North Korean internal image, as well as reports on local occurrences and accidents.

Once news is directly gathered and prepared by North Korean residents, the manuscript is then sent to the outside world where it is printed as the “Rimjingang” magazine. This magazine’s inaugural press conference was held at the Seoul Press Center on the afternoon of November 20th. The conference attracted enthusiastic coverage, with over 30 domestic and international press corps members in attendance, including Fuji TV and international wire services such as AP and Reuters.

With the help of Japan’s Asia Press, the North Korean journalists involved in the production of “Rimjingang” have been filming local footage, conducting interviews with residents, and recording the daily debriefing sessions of citizens for the past five years. Much of the video footage currently distributed to South Korea and Japan has been recorded by the journalists themselves.

Magazine publication officials revealed that the “Rimjingang” would also be distributed within North Korea. They added, “the North Korean reporters seek subject matter that reflects how North Korean people live, what they think, and what they want,” and, “the only real evidence that reflects how North Korea is changing is given through the North Korean people.”

There are currently 10 North Korean journalists affiliated with “Rimjingang.” The diverse list includes a staff member of the central state enterprise, a schoolteacher in his thirties, a worker from a foreign currency earning company, the first journalist to release his pen name to the outside world, a resident in her forties from Pyongan Province, and journalist in his thirties from South Hamkyeong Province.

An official from Asia Press said, “Over the years, more than 600 North Korean defectors have been interviewed around the China-North Korea border,” and, “there have been a few among them with intentions, like us, of delivering news from within North Korea to the outside world, so we have been training them in journalism since 2002.”

“We explained to them what ‘journalism’ was, and taught them the format of news articles as well as the operation of video camera..they then returned to North Korea and began gathering news, and since 2004, some of the news they collected has been released through Japanese and Korean press, as well as U.S. and European press.”

Institute for Far Eastern Studies
NK Brief No. 07-11-27-1
11/27/2007

Following Kim Jong Il’s August 26 announcement that, “Markets have become anti-Socialist Western-style markets,” measures to increase restrictions on markets across North Korea have also restricted individuals’ ability to migrate.

The Central Committee of the (North) Korean Workers’ Party released a statement in October, revealing that Kim Jong Il had stated, “The current state of anti-socialism should not be moderately opposed. A strong and concentrated attack must be laid out in order to thoroughly eliminate [this anti-socialist behavior].”

According to the Daily NK, an informant inside North Korea revealed that authorities are “contacting people who have applied for permission to travel to other regions at their trip destination and setting up interviews in order to verify that interviewees are conforming with their [stated] intentions,” and, “ultimately, long distance wholesalers are restricted in their movements, cause a reduction in the amount of goods circulating on the markets.”

Good Friends, a South Korean NGO for North Korean aid, also reported, “In North Hamgyung Province, if someone is absent from work for two days or not seen in their neighborhood, that person’s actions are carefully investigated,” and, “if someone does not check out, each of their family members are called in for interrogation.”

After the ‘Arduous March’, as market activity grew in North Korea, the number of whole-saling ‘middle-men’ grew considerably. These traders received travel permits by applying under the guise of visiting authorities, family matters, special occasions, or other personal reasons. Long-distance traders need a travel permit. In order to get such a permit, cash or goods were frequently offered as bribes.

Now, as it is becoming more difficult to receive travel documents, not only long-distance traders but also even normal vacationers are facing growing difficulties. In particular, people who need to travel to China for family visits are especially worried due to the increasingly strict issuance of travel permits.

The insider reported, “As markets grow, because wholesalers are gaining power as they make large amounts of money, authorities seem to be strongly restraining them,” and “if a wholesaler is caught, his goods are taken, leading to difficulties for market traders.”

According to a North Korean defector in the South with access to DPRK information, university students in Pyongyang are also being subjected to increasingly strict personnel inspections and restrictions. Even when they go to the library, they must fill out an exit record and can only remain out for one day before student leaders pay a visit to their home.

Students not strictly obeying school policies have their bags and pockets searched while being put under investigation and being further restricted. Of course, in the past, as well, students with problems faced inspections of their dormitory or personal goods, but recently, inspections of even everyday students are on the rise.

Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
11/16/2007

It is reported that the North Korean authorities have been regulating Jangmadang (markets) by placing age limit on who can do business in the market and controlling sales items and prices.

45-year old Ahn Hyuk Jun said in an interview with DailyNK conducted on Wednesday, “A decree is posted at the entrance to many markets in Pyongyang that the state would control sales prices and the quantity of sales items.” Ahn, a resident of Pyongyang, came to Yanji, China on November 4th to visit his relatives.

Mr. Ahn said, “According to the decree, the state forbids merchants from bringing out more than 15 items for sale and selling more than 10 kg of sea products in the market.”

The decree is another controlling measure of markets adopted by the state. Previously, the state has conducted a campaign to fight anti-socialist trends appearing in many market places. Moreover, it has banned female merchants who are under the age of 39 from doing business in the market. In Pyongyang, the age limit is 49. It seems that North Korea has adopted a rather extreme measure as both the number of people engaged in business and products circulated in the markets continue to increase.

However, few merchants would follow the new measure which limits sales items and prices because they cannot make a profit that way. It is certain that the new decree would likely turn out futile.

Mr. Ahn said, “For example, the decree lowered the price for octopus from 3,700 won/kg to 2,200 won/kg, and the price for flatfish from 3,500/kg to 1,800/kg.”

Ahn said, “No one in the market would abide by the state decree at the risk of losing profit,” adding, “many merchants would bring out items for sale that are low in quality and matches the state-imposed price anyway. However, a real business is done in a clandestine manner.”

According to Ahn’s explanation, the real business is done as follows. Many merchants on their way to the market stop at neighboring households and unload their sales items. Then they pay the households to keep their items there. At the market, they bring out low-quality items on sales stand, and post a sign with a list of real sales items right next the stand.

When there are customers checking the list, merchants approach to them and begin bargaining. Once it is done, they both come out of the market and go the household where the merchant hands over the asked item to their customers.

Ahn said, “Overall, many markets of Pyongyang are stagnant due to the state regulation on market transactions.” He added, “Many Pyongyang citizens argue that the state, instead of distributing food, should allow them to do business in the market so that they can make a living.”

“There is a rumor that Kim Yong Il was appointed as the prime minister because he pledged to close all markets,” Ahn said, “Many people worry that a man who lacks knowledge about how money works is now in charge of the nation’s economy.”

Good Friends, the Seoul-based relief organization dedicated to North Korea also reported yesterday that the North Korean authorities have lately produced a great amount of lecture material which bans business activities across the country.

According to the lecture material, the authorities asserted that market transactions would destroy North Korea’s own socialism from within and facilitate the infiltration of capitalism into the society. They urged that the state should strengthen mass ideological training in order to educate the public about why it is important to place age limit on who can do business in the market.

As mentioned earlier, North Korea has banned females under the age of 39 from doing business in the market. There is a rumor that the state would increase the age limit to 45 at the end of this year.

In North Korea most working age females are forced to work at factory complexes. In Pyongsung of South Pyongan Province, the state sends out a dispatch to local females under the age of 30 in order to have them work at neighboring factory complexes. However, few would actually work at the designated complexes because many complexes already have enough workers. Even if they could get a position at factories, it is reported that those employed barely receive wages and food distribution.

Bloomberg
Bradley Martin
11/2/2007

Fabien Pictet & Partners Ltd., a British money manager that specializes in emerging markets, plans to establish a fund focused on joint ventures in North Korea.

Fabien Pictet has applied to North Korea’s embassy in London for permission to visit Pyongyang to explore opportunities, Chief Executive Officer Richard Yarlott said in an interview. The closely held firm initially would buy into South Korean companies doing business in the north, he said.

“It would be very difficult to put more than $50 million directly into North Korea,” said Yarlott, 47, who helps manage $750 million of bonds and equities. “But it would be very easy to put $500 million into listed South Korean companies and then later, as we see specific private equity opportunities, go with them.” He declined to give further details.

A North-South agreement on economic cooperation, signed Oct. 4, may foster cross-border projects in industries such as mining and shipbuilding. Still, that prospect isn’t enough to lure billionaire investor Warren Buffett to a northern plunge.

“Things would have to change a whole lot before we can make investments,” said Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., during a visit to South Korea last week.

Buffett, who owns shares of South Korea’s Posco, Asia’s biggest steelmaker by market value, rates the nation’s stocks as “modestly cheaper” than most around the world. The benchmark Kospi index’s price-to-earnings multiple of 15.4 for current year estimated earnings is the lowest in Asia-Pacific after Thailand.

London-based Fabien Pictet, set up in 1998, invests in countries from Brazil to the Ukraine.

It started a South Korean equity fund, Three Kingdoms Korea Fund Inc., in 2004 partly to be ready for a northern push, Yarlott said.

LG Corp., Hyundai

South Korean companies — including units of LG Corp., the country’s fourth-largest industrial group, and Hyundai Corp. — have $2 billion to invest over the northern border, he said.

Three Kingdoms Korea has had a total return of 88.5 percent from April 30, 2004, to Sept. 28 this year. South Korea’s Kospi has risen 126 percent in the same period.

Foreign investment in North Korea has been legal since 1984 and repatriation of profits since 1992. The country doesn’t permit private ownership of assets and hasn’t established a stock exchange.

South Korea’s closely held Hyundai Asan Corp., which started a northern tourism business in 1998, has been reported to be struggling to avoid or reduce operating losses.

London-based Anglo-Sino Capital Partners Ltd., which in 2005 created Chosun Development and Investment Fund to focus on direct investment in North Korea, last month doubled its investment target, citing strong interest.

“We have raised the fund from $50 million to $100 million,” Colin McAskill, chairman in London of Koryo Asia Ltd., the Chosun fund adviser, said in an interview.

The fund will concentrate on direct transactions with North Korean companies that have been active internationally and have track records as foreign currency earners, he said.

Some investors say it’s too early to call North Korea an emerging market.

“I’m 77 years old and the thought that the day would come in my time — it’s very flattering but it’s a long way off,” said Buffett, also known as the “Sage of Omaha.”

Yarlott said the country was changing. “North Korea, like China, will develop a stock market,” he said.

“At this rate, even the sage will get a look-in.”