Archive for the ‘Military’ Category

More UN sanctions

Friday, July 17th, 2009

On Thursday the UNSC adopted a travel ban on five North Koreans, an asset freeze on five DPRK organizations (and the five individuals), and banned the export of graphite and para-aramid fiber to the DPRK.  Below are the details:

UNSC Sanctions effective: July 16, 2009.

Officials named:
1. Ri Je-son, director at North Korea’s General Bureau of Atomic Energy (GBAE)
2. Hwang Sok-hwa, director at North Korea’s General Bureau of Atomic Energy (GBAE)
3. Yun Ho-jin, director of Namchongang  Trading Corp.
4. Ri Hong-sop, former director of North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear research center
5. Han Yu-ro, director of Korea Ryongaksan General Trading Corp.

Organizations named:
1. General Bureau of Atomic Energy (GBAE)-DPRK weapons agency
2. Namchongang Trading Corp-alleged to have procured Japanese vacuum pumps and aluminum tubes used to enrich uranium.
3. Hong Kong Electronics-transferred millions of dollars to Tanchon Commercial Bank and Korea Mining Development Trading Corp., both subject to sanctions by Security Council agreement in April.
4. Korea Hyoksin Trading Corp
5. Korean Tangun Trading Corp-primarily responsible for the procurement of commodities and technologies to support” North Korea’s defense research and development program

Further Notes:
1. The North Korean’s actually have a web page for the Hyoksin Trading Corp.

2. Here is a previous post summarizing most of the sanctioning activites this year.

Read more below:
U.N. council sanctions North Korea entities, officials
Reuters (via Washngton Post)
Patrick Worsnip
7/17/2009

North Korea Officials Sanctioned by UN for Travel, Nuke Program
Bloomberg
Bill Varner
7/17/2009

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Myanmar – DPRK relationship grows

Friday, July 10th, 2009

According to Aung Zaw in the Wall Street Journal Aisa:

A government report leaked by a Burmese official last month shed new light on these ties. It described a Memorandum of Understanding between Burma and North Korea signed during a secret visit by Burmese officials to Pyongyang in November 2008. The visit was the culmination of years of work. Diplomatic relations between the two countries were cut in 1983 following a failed assassination attempt by North Korean agents on the life of South Korean President Chun Doo Hwan while he was visiting Rangoon. The attack cost 17 Korean lives and Burma cut off ties.

One of the first signs of warming relations was a barter agreement between the two countries that lasted from 2000 to 2006 and saw Burma receive between 12 and 16 M-46 field guns and as many as 20 million rounds of 7.62 mm ammunition from North Korea, according to defense analyst Andrew Selth of Griffith University in Australia. In exchange, Burma bartered food and rice.

The two countries formally re-established diplomatic relations in April 2007. After that, the North Korean ship the Kang Nam — the same ship that recently turned away from Burma after being followed by the U.S. navy — made a trip to Burma’s Thilawa port. Western defense analysts concluded that the ship carried conventional weapons and missiles to Burma.

This laid the ground for the MoU signed in November, when Shwe Mann, the regime’s third-most powerful figure, made a secret visit to North Korea, according to the leaked report. Shwe Mann is the chief of staff of the army, navy and air force, and the coordinator of Special Operations. He spent seven days in Pyongyang, traveling via China. His 17-member delegation received a tour around Pyongyang and Myohyang, where secret tunnels have been built into mountains to shelter aircraft, missiles, tanks and nuclear and chemical weapons.

The MoU he signed formalizes the military cooperation between the two countries. According to the terms of the document, North Korea will build or supervise the construction of special Burmese military facilities, including tunnels and caves in which missiles, aircraft and even naval ships could be hidden. Burma will also receive expert training for its special forces, air defense training, plus a language training program between personnel in the two armed forces.

Shwe Mann’s delegation also visited a surface-to-surface missile factory, partially housed in tunnels, on the outskirts of Pyongyang to observe missile production. The Burmese were particularly interested in short-range 107 mm and 240 mm multirocket launchers — a multipurpose, defensive missile system used in case of a foreign invasion. Also of great interest was the latest in antitank, laser-guided missile technology.

Previous Myanmar – DPRK posts here.

Read the full story below:
Burma and North Korea, Brothers in Arms
Wall Street Journal Asia
Aung Zaw
7/10/2009

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DPRK admits to enriching uranium

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

For the last several years there has been intense debate among “North Korea watchers” over whether the DPRK was enriching uranium.  Strong cases were made on both sides of the debate, but if we are to believe the North Koreans, the debate is over.  According to the Associated Press:

After repudiating negotiations on dismantling its plutonium-based nuclear program, North Korea admitted this month to having an even more worrying way to make bombs.

Following nearly seven years of adamant denials, North Korea announced it can enrich uranium – a simpler method of building nuclear weapons than reprocessing plutonium. Uranium can be enriched in relatively inconspicuous factories that can better evade spy-satellite detection, and uranium bombs may work without test explosions.

The admission – made in a threatening response to a June 12 U.N. Security Council resolution punishing Pyongyang for an underground plutonium bomb test last month – poses a new challenge to the U.S., China, South Korea, Russia and Japan as they seek to stem the reclusive country’s atomic ambitions.

Read more here:
Uranium gives NKorea second way to make bombs
Associated Press (via the Washington Post)
Kwang-tae Kim
6/28/2009

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The Political Economy of North Korea: Implications for Denuclearization and Proliferation

Tuesday, June 16th, 2009

Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
East-West Center Working Papers
Economics Series, No. 104
Download paper here (PDF)

Abstract:
Despite North Korea’s turn away from economic reform and the constraints of the second nuclear crisis, the country has in fact become more economically open. But it has emphasized closer economic relations with China and other trading partners that show little interest in political quid-pro-quos, let alone sanctions. Yet the U.S. can still exercise economic leverage by going aggressively after third-party financial intermediaries. This particular form of sanction does not require multilateral coordination, since foreign banking institutions that conduct significant business in the United States have a strong interest in avoiding institutions that the United States Treasury has identified as money laundering or proliferation concerns.

There is some evidence that North Korea moderated its missile proliferation activities during periods when rapprochement with the United States, and to a lesser extent Japan, was a priority, but in the absence of such interest and as legitimate trade, investment, and aid dry up, the incentives to intensify proliferation activities increase.

The internal organization of the North Korean economy has important implications for any policy seeking transformation via engagement. The economy is structured in such a way that outside economic ties are still largely monopolized by stateowned enterprises and other gatekeepers, such as the military. Under such circumstances, the precise design of engagement policies requires very close scrutiny. Even nominally commercial relations can be exploited if the North Korean counterparties believe that they are ultimately political in nature, subsidized and thus vulnerable to blackmail. If economic ties are truly commercial in nature, those choosing to trade and invest with North Korea do so at their own risk. Under these circumstances, private actors will make economic decisions fully factoring in political risk, and North Korea will bear the costs if it chooses to renege on commitments or fails to provide a supportive policy environment.

Paper prepared for the conference on “North Korean Nuclear Politics: Constructing a New Northeast Asian Order in the 21st Century,” University of Washington, June 4-5, 2009. We would like to thank the Smith Richardson, MacArthur, and Korea Foundations for financial support and Jennifer Lee for research assistance.

UPDATE: A shorter version of this paper can be found here.

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N. Korea digs tunnels in Myanmar to earn dollars

Friday, June 12th, 2009

Korea Herald and Yale Global
Bertil Linter
6/12/2009

burma-tunnels.jpg

Missiles and weapon technology, counterfeiting money and cigarette smuggling, front companies and restaurants in foreign countries, labor export to the Middle East – North Korea has been very innovative when it comes to raising badly needed foreign exchange for the regime in Pyongyang. But there is a less known trade in service that the North Koreans have offered to its foreign clients: expertise in tunneling. A fascinating new glimpse of this business has now been offered in secret photos from Burma obtained by this correspondent.

The photos, taken between 2003 and 2006, show that while the rest of the world is speculating about the outcome of long-awaited elections in Burma, the ruling military junta has been busy digging in for the long haul – literally. North Korean technicians have helped them construct underground facilities where they can survive any threats from their own people as well as the outside world. It is not known if the tunnels are linked to Burma’s reported efforts to develop nuclear technology – in which the North Koreans allegedly are active as well. (See Burma’s Nuclear Temptation by Bertil Lintner, YaleGlobal, Dec. 3, 2008)

The photographs published here show that an extensive network of underground installations was built near Burma’s new, fortified capital Naypyidaw. In November 2005, the military moved its administration from the old capital Rangoon to an entirely new site that was carved out of the wilderness 460 kilometers north of Rangoon.

Meaning the “Abode of Kings,” Naypyidaw is meant to symbolize the power of the military and its desire to build a new state based on the tradition of Burma’s pre-colonial warrior kings. But underground facilities were apparently deemed necessary to secure the military’s grip on power. Additional tunnels and underground meeting halls have been built near Taunggyi, the capital of Burma’s northeastern Shan State and the home of several of the country’s decades-long insurgencies. Some of the pictures, taken in June 2006, show a group of technicians in civilian dress walking out of a government guesthouse in the Naypyidaw area. Asian diplomats have identified those technicians, with features distinct from the Burmese workers around them, as North Koreans.

This is quite a turn around as Burma severed relations with Pyongyang in 1983 after North Korean agents planted a bomb at Rangoon’s Martyrs Mausoleum killing 18 visiting South Korean officials, including the then-deputy prime minister and three other government ministers.

Secret talks between Burmese and North Korean diplomats began in Bangkok in the early 1990s. The two sides had discovered that despite the hostile act in the previous decade they had a lot in common. Both had come under unprecedented international condemnation, especially by the United States, because of their blatant disregard for the most basic human rights and Pyongyang for its nuclear weapons program. Burma also needed more military hardware to suppress an increasingly rebellious urban population as well as ethnic rebels in the frontier areas. North Korea needed food, rubber and other essentials – and was willing to accept barter deals, which suited the cash-strapped Burmese generals. “They have both drawn their wagons in a circle ready to defend themselves,” a Bangkok-based Western diplomat said. “Burma’s generals admire the North Koreans for standing up to the United States and wish they could do the same.”

After an exchange of secret visits, North Korean armaments began to arrive in Burma. The curious relationship between Burma and North Korea was first disclosed in the Hong Kong-based weekly Far Eastern Economic Review on July 10, 2003. A group of 15-20 North Korean technicians were then seen at a government guesthouse near the old capital Rangoon. The report was met with skepticism, especially because of the 1983 Rangoon bombings. But, when North Korean-made field artillery pieces were seen in Burma in the early 2000s, it became clear that North Korea had found a new ally – several years before diplomatic relations between the two countries were restored in April 2007.

“While based on a 1950s Russian design, these weapons (the field guns) were battle-tested and reliable,” Australian Burma scholar Andrew Selth stated in a 2004 working paper for the Australian National University. “They significantly increased Burma’s long-range artillery capabilities, which were then very weak.” Since then, Burma has also taken delivery of North Korean truck-mounted, multiple rocket launchers and possibly also surface-to-air missiles for its Chinese-supplied naval vessels.

Then came the tunneling experts. Most of Pyongyang’s own defense industries, including its chemical and biological-weapons programs, and many other military as well as government installations are underground. This includes known factories at Ganggye and Sakchu, where thousands of technicians and workers labor in a maze of tunnels dug under mountains. The export of such know-how to Burma was first documented in June 2006, when intelligence agencies intercepted a message from Naypyidaw confirming the arrival of a group of North Korean tunneling experts at the site. Today, three years later, the dates on the photos published today confirm the accuracy of this report. By now, the tunnels and underground installations should be completed, as would those near Taunggyi. This well-hidden complex ensures there is no danger of irate civilians storming government buildings, as they did during the massive pro-democracy uprising in August-September 1988. Sources say that the internationally isolated military junta may also consider these deep bunkers as their last repair in case of air strikes of the kind that the Taliban in Afghanistan or Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq endured.

It is not clear how much, or what, Burma has paid for the assistance provided by the North Korean experts, but it could be food – or gold, which is found in riverbeds in northern Burma. Or some other mineral. Burma, of course, is not the only foreign tunneling venture by North Korea.

In southern Lebanon following the 2006 war, Israel’s Defense Forces and the United Nations found several of the underground complexes, which by then had been abandoned by Hezbollah militants. By coincidence or not, these tunnels and underground rooms – some big enough for meetings to be held there – are strikingly similar to those the South Koreans have unearthed under the Demilitarized Zone that separates South from North Korea. Under small, manhole cover-sized entrances hidden under grass and bushes were steel-lined shafts with ladders leading down to big rooms with electricity, ventilation, bathrooms with showers and drainage systems. Some of the tunnels are 40 meters deep and located only 100 meters from the Israeli border. North Korea’s possible involvement in digging these tunnels is however, difficult to ascertain. According to Israeli investigative journalist Ronen Bergman, a senior officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who had defected to the West, revealed that, “thanks to the presence of hundreds of Iranian engineers and technicians, and experts from North Korea who were brought in by Iranian diplomats ?¶ Hezbollah succeeded in building a 25-kilometer subterranean strip in South Lebanon.”

Beirut sources suggest that it is more likely that Hezbollah has used North Korean designs and blueprints given to them by their Syrian or Iranian allies – both of whom are close to the North Koreans. (Both Iran and Syria have acquired missile technology from North Korea, and what was believed to be a secret nuclear reactor in Syria built with North Korean help was destroyed by the Israeli air force in September 2007.) Either way, North Korean expertise in tunneling has become a valuable commodity for export. And Pyongyang is flexible about the method of payment as long as it helps the international pariah regime.

Bertil Lintner is a Swedish journalist based in Thailand and the author of several works on Asia, including “Blood Brothers: The Criminal Underworld of Asia” and “Great Leader, Dear Leader: Demystifying North Korea under the Kim Clan.” He can be reached at [email protected] – Ed.

UPDATE: Burmese whistle-blowers sentenced to death
BBC
1/7/10

Two Burmese officials have been sentenced to death for leaking details of secret government visits to North Korea and Russia, the BBC has learned.

The officials were also found guilty of leaking information about military tunnels allegedly built in Burma by North Korea, a source in Burma said.

A third person was jailed for 15 years, the source added.

The military rulers in Burma (Myanmar) have so far made no public comments on the case.

The source told BBC Burmese that Win Naing Kyaw, a former army major, and Thura Kyaw, a clerk at the European desk of Burma’s foreign ministry, had been sentenced to death by a court in Rangoon on Thursday.

They were found guilty of leaking information about government visits to North Korea and Russia, which reportedly took place in 2008 and 2006.

The two men were also convicted of leaking details of a network of tunnels reportedly being built in Burma.

It is thought the tunnels were built to house communications systems, possible weapons factories and troops in the event of an invasion.

The third man, Pyan Sein, was given 15 years in prison on Thursday.

Burma still has capital punishment, but it has not carried out executions in recent years.

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DPRK military strenghtens hold on economic interests

Wednesday, June 10th, 2009

UPDATE: IFES has contacted us with an update to this report:

“North Korea exports between 2-3 million tons of coal, collecting approximately 200 million USD.”

Original Post:
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-6-9-1
6/9/2009   

The North Korean military, which has recently taken a hard-line position internationally with rocket launches, a nuclear test and inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch preparation, appears to be strengthening its position domestically, as well. It has reportedly taken charge of coal exports, previously the responsibility of the Cabinet, and other key economic interests.

According to sources inside North Korea, authority to export anthracite, the North’s most valuable export item, was transferred from a trading company under the control of the Cabinet to a military trading company earlier this year. North Korea exports between 200-300 tons of coal each year, collecting approximately two billion USD in foreign currency. Previously, this was shared among branches of the government, with the military, the Korean Workers’ Party and the Cabinet all similar export quotas.

One source stated, “Recently, China’s trade minister signed a contract for 60,000 tons of coal from a military-run trading company, and delivered one million USD-worth of corn as payment,” noting, “previously, North Korea’s trade partner [with China] was the Cabinet-controlled trade company.” The same source went on to note that it was “exceptional that as North Korea suffers from foreign capital shortages, it demands payment not in cash, but in corn…it looks like it is measure for military use.”

Other sources reported that, as of this year, the military has also taken control of the Bukchang Thermoelectric Power Plant, the country’s largest steam-powered electrical station. The Bukchang plant, built with Soviet supplies in 1968, can produce up to 2 million kW of electricity. It was formerly operated by the Ministry of Electric Power Industry, which is under the control of the Cabinet, but at the beginning of year, some authorities were purged on charges of bribe-taking and providing power designated for government facilities to foreign capital enterprises and other businesses. Since then, the military has run the plant.

The increased number of economic assets in control of the military reflects the military’s recently-strengthened position within the regime. The North Korean economy can be divided into several sectors: Kim Jong Il’s private fund, managed by Party operations; the military-industrial ‘second economy’; and the official economy, under the control of the Cabinet. The military’s increasing control over the official economy appears to be a move to completely implement ‘Military-first Politics.’

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China sends soft signal to DPRK

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009

According to Bloomberg:

China suspended government exchanges with North Korea after Kim Jong-Il’s regime last week tested a nuclear device and fired short-range missiles, Yonhap News said.

China has halted plans to send officials to North Korea and won’t accept visits from Kim’s government either, the Korean- language news agency said today, citing unidentified diplomatic sources in Beijing.

China’s foreign ministry has said the country “resolutely opposes” North Korea’s nuclear test. China on May 25 agreed with the U.S., Japan and Russia to work toward a United Nations Security Council resolution censuring North Korea. The U.S. and Japan want the statement to call for cutting the communist country’s global financial ties, UN diplomats said.

This is slightly more significant than the “tough talk” Beijing is dishing out to the DPRK in the Chinese press. According to Voice of America:

China’s state-run media these days are running stories bluntly criticizing North Korea.  

Tuesday’s English edition of the Global Timesnewspaper quotes Chinese North Korea analyst, Zhang Lianggui, as saying the catastrophe of a mishandled North Korean nuclear test is “an unprecedented threat” to China.

Monday, the paper quoted Tsinghua University professor Sun Zhe as saying North Korea’s nuclear test has apparently spoiled the traditional bonds between the two countries, saying Pyongyang no longer follows Beijing.

 And according to Reuters:

The top item on the Chinese website of Beijing’s embassy in Pyongyang is a condemnation of North Korea’s nuclear test.

That, and a recent blast of blunt criticism of North Korea in China’s state-run press, suggest the rancor that officials feel toward their communist neighbor — anger likely to bring Beijing behind a U.N. resolution condemning the May 25 test and threatening fresh sanctions.

North Korea’s second nuclear test took place 85 km (53 miles) from China’s border, and the tremors from the blast forced many schools on the Chinese side to evacuate, wrote Zhang Lianggui, a prominent Chinese expert on the North.

He warned of catastrophe if Pyongyang mishandles a nuclear test.

“Future generations of the Korean people will have no place of their own, and China’s reviving northeast will burst like a bubble,” Zhang wrote in the Global Times, a popular tabloid, on Tuesday.

“This is an unprecedented threat that China has never faced in its thousands of years.”

The web page of the PRC embassy in Pyongyang is here.  I do not see any of this language on their page.  The top line states “DPRK top leader inspects industrial, farm facilities” and the main story says “Year of China-DPRK friendship aims at enhancing bilateral ties.”  Additionally, in the section devoted to Chinese media on the DPRK, the last story was posted on July 4, 2007.

Read the full story here:
China Suspends North Korea Exchanges, Yonhap Reports
Bloomberg
Kyung Bok Cho and Dune Lawrence
5/31/2009

China Withholds Talk Tough Toward North Korea 
VOA News
6/2/2009

China anger with North Korea echoes in the press
Reuters
6/2/2009

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Unha-2 (Kwangmyongsong 2) Compendium

Sunday, April 5th, 2009

UPDATE 7: Here is the Wikipedia Page.

UPDATE 6 (2009-4-5):  The DPRK claimed to have successfully launched its second satellite, the Kwangmyongsong-2.  (Aside: “Kwangmyongsong” means or “Lodestar” in Korean and it is a nickname officially attributed to Kim Jong il–the lodestar of the 21st centuryin a poem by his father.)

According to KCNA:

Scientists and technicians of the DPRK (North Korea) have succeeded in putting satellite Kwangmyongsong-2, an experimental communications satellite, into orbit by means of carrier rocket Unha-2 under the state’s long-term plan for the development of outer space.

Unha-2, which was launched at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground in Hwadae County, North Hamgyong Province at 11:20 (3:20 a.m. British time) on April 5, accurately put Kwangmyongsong-2 into its orbit at 11:29:02, nine minutes and two seconds after its launch.

The satellite is going round the earth along its elliptic orbit at the angle of inclination of 40.6 degrees at 490 km perigee and 1,426 km apogee. Its cycle is 104 minutes and 12 seconds.

Mounted on the satellite are necessary measuring devices and communications apparatuses.

The satellite is going round on its routine orbit.

It is sending to the earth the melodies of the immortal revolutionary paeans ‘Song of General Kim Il-sung’ and ‘Song of General Kim Jong-il’ and measured information at 470 MHz. By the use of the satellite the relay communications is now underway by UHF frequency band.

The satellite is of decisive significance in promoting the scientific researches into the peaceful use of outer space and solving scientific and technological problems for the launch of practical satellites in the future.

Carrier rocket Unha-2 has three stages.

The carrier rocket and the satellite developed by the indigenous wisdom and technology are the shining results gained in the efforts to develop the nation’s space science and technology on a higher level.

The successful satellite launch is symbolic of the leaping advance made in the nation’s space science and technology was conducted against the background of the stirring period when a high-pitched drive for bringing about a fresh great revolutionary surge is under way throughout the country to open the gate to a great prosperous and powerful nation without fail by 2012, the centenary of the birth of President Kim Il-sung, under the far-reaching plan of leader Kim Jong-il.

This is powerfully encouraging the Korean people all out in the general advance.

The US and South Korea claim that two of the rocket’s stages and its payload fell into the ocean and that the satellite did not reach orbit.

So if we can believe the North Korean media, there are now TWO satellites in orbit broadcasting the “Song of General Kim il Sung” and the “Song of General Kin Jong il” at 27 MHz and 470 MHz.  Too bad short wave radios are so rare in the DPRK.

To date, however, no other country has verified the Kwangmyongsong No. 1 is in orbit–with one minor exception.  That minor exception came from the Russian space agency which seems to have offered a temporary confirmation of the satellite (followed by a quick retraction) so the DPRK could assert that another country verified the satellite’s existence.

Repeating history, Russian Foreign Ministry “verifies” Kwangmyongsong No. 2 satellite launch:

The DPRK sent an artificial Earth Satellite into a low-Earth orbit on the morning of April 5. According to Russian aerospace monitoring data, the launch trajectory did not pass over the territory of the Russian Federation. The parameters of the satellite’s orbit are being specified.

The DPRK had informed the Russian side ahead of time about the launch.

We call on all concerned states to show restraint in judgments and action in the current situation and to proceed from objective data on the nature of the DPRK launch.

We intend to watch further developments attentively, remaining in close touch and holding consultations with all concerned sides.

Note that the above quote is from the Russian Foreign Ministry—not its space agency—and it is coupled with a call for political restraint.  This is entirely a political statement, not a scientific acknowledgement of the satellite’s existence.  Essentially, this quote asserts that for the purposes of public diplomacy, the Russian Foreign Ministry classifies this event as a satellite launch rather than a missile test. This follow up story in RIA Novosti is much more agnostic.

But the original satellite’s importance to domestic politics seems to have faded.  Even KCNA’s coverage has significantly tapered off over the years.  Below is a table of KCNA mentions of the Kwangmyongsong No. 1 satellite from its launch date through today:

 

kcna-satellite.JPG

Let’s see if 10 years from now reporting on the Kwangmyongsong No. 2 is any different.  Meanwhile, we can all feel sorry for the people at KCNA who will now have to report on TWO satellites that do not exist.

Below are additional links and media related to this story:

1. Satellite image of the rocket lift off

2. Joint US-EU statement

3. Scott Snyder identifies the missile’s political targets

4. Evan Ramstad focuses on the recket’s use in domestic politics

UPDATE 5 (2009-3-16): The Choson Ilbo reports that the DPRK spent at least $30 million on the missile:

Experts speculate that impoverished North Korea spent at least US$30 million on development of a missile it is apparently poised to launch. While the North says it is launching a rocket to propel a satellite into orbit, many in the West are convinced this is in fact a Taepodong-2 long-range missile.

When North Korea test-launched seven medium and long-range missiles in July 2006, South Korean military authorities estimated the total cost at about $63.69 million (about W60 billion according to the exchange rate at that time).

Grand National Party spokesman Yoon Sang-hyun on Friday said his party estimates North Korea spent about $30 million test-launching the Taepodong-2 missile three years ago. “They should have spent the money to feed and clothe their people,” Yoon added.

North Korea spent approximately $20 million test-firing the Taepodong-1 missile in 1998, and experts guess it cost more this time since performance and capabilities including the airframe and range of the Taepodong-2 missile have been improved by more than 10 percent since the rocket fizzled ignominiously in a test three years ago.

A researcher with a government-funded think tank said, “North Korea may have spent between W800 billion and W900 billion (US$1=W1,488) developing and manufacturing the rocket for the Taepodong-2 alone.”

UPDATE 4 (2009-3-16):  Martyn Williams informs me that the North Koreans have closed air routes throught their controlled airspace:

North Korea will close two aerial routes through its controlled airspace from April 4 to 8 in order to launch what Pyongyang claims is a communications satellite, Japan’s transport ministry said Saturday. (Kyodo)

And the routes to be closed:

A0027/09 – ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
R452 KICHA-SESUR
G346 KICHA-RASON
DUE TO LAUNCH OF A COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE. GND – UNL, DAILY 0200-0700, 04
APR 02:00 2009 UNTIL 08 APR 07:00 2009. CREATED: 21 MAR 03:22 2009

These waypoints have been added to a Google Earth application which you may download here.

UPDATE 3 (2009-3-15): Martyn Williams was kind enough to send me the NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) from Fukuoka (Japan) Air Traffic Control—posted below in full. The NOTAM provides the best estimate of the date and time of the launch.

Using this information, I have mapped out the Musudan launch path and areas of falling debris on Google Earth:

 

Unha-2-NOTAM

Click on image for a larger view.

Download this .KMZ file (with additional closed air routes) to your Google Earth here.

 

FUKUOKA NOTAM

J0732/09 – ALL ACFT INTENDING TO FLY WI FUKUOKA FIR ARE ADVISED TO PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION. A SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO BE LAUNCHED FROM NORTH KOREA.

THE LAUNCHING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS FLW,
1.LAUNCHING DATE AND TIME : BTN 0200UTC AND 0700* UTC DAILY FM APR 4 TO APR 8
2.POSSIBLE FALLING AREA OF THE FLYING OBJECTS AND/OR THEIR DEBRIS
AREA(1): AREA BOUNDED BY STRAIGHT LINES
CONNECTING FOLLOWING POINTS.
404140N1353445E 402722N1383040E
401634N1383022E 403052N1353426E
AREA(2): AREA BOUNDED BY STRAIGHT LINES
CONNECTING FOLLOWING POINTS.
343542N1644042E 312222N1721836E
295553N1721347E 330916N1643542E
WHEN FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SATELLITE LAUNCHING OBTAINED, REPLACED NOTAM WILL BE ISSUED. SFC – UNL, 12 MAR 23:40 2009 UNTIL 08 APR 07:00 2009 ESTIMATED. CREATED: 12 MAR 23:41 2009

*(11:00am-4:00pm in Japan)

UPDATE 2 (2009-2-24): The DPRK has officially announced that it intends to put another “satellite” into orbit.  According to KCNA:

The preparations for launching experimental communications satellite Kwangmyongsong-2 by means of delivery rocket Unha-2 are now making brisk headway at Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground in Hwadae County, North Hamgyong Province.

When this satellite launch proves successful, the nation’s space science and technology will make another giant stride forward in building an economic power.

The “Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (TSLG)” is also known as the “Musudan-ri Launching Station.” TSLG is a new name, and today is the first time that KCNA has ever used it!

The full KCNA story can be read here.

Below you can find previous posts on the DPRK’s efforts to put a satellite into orbit—including information on the mysterious Kwangmyongsong-1.

UPDATE 1 (2009-2-13):  The Daily NK is reporting that the DPRK plans to launch “another satellite” called the “Kwongmyongsong No. 2.”

Senior Technical Analyst at Globalsecurity.org Charles P. Vick stated, “North Korea is expected to flight test one or two Teap’o-dong-2(sic) class missiles, either as a satellite launch attempt, or a ballistic missile flight, or both, in the spring or summer of 2009,” in a report entitled “The Latest up-date in North Korean Ballistic Missile & Space Booster Developments.”

North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity (NKIS) reported on the 12th news from its source in North Hamkyung Province, which seemed to confirm the satellite theory; “The Kwangmyungsung-2, an artificial satellite, will be launched soon at the missile site in Moosudan-ri, Hwadae (county),” the source announced.

According to the NKIS report, the Kwangmyungsung-2, allegedly a communications satellite, was developed by the Institute of Electronic War under the Academy of Sciences for Defense.

If they go through with it, KCNA will have to report on two satellites that are not in orbit.

Read the full story here:
Taepodong-2: Missile or Satellite?
Daily NK
Jeong Jae Sung
2/13/2009

ORIGINAL POST: Shortly after the Onion reported this, the Australian tells us that the Kim Jong il government has declared it is actively pursuing a “space program”:

“The DPRK’s (North Korea) policy of advancing to space for peaceful purposes is a justifiable aim that fits the global trend of the times. There is no power in the world that can stop it,” the newspaper said in an editorial.

“As long as developing and using space are aimed at peaceful purposes and such efforts contribute to enhancing human beings’ happiness, no one in the world can find fault with them.”

It noted that Iran on Monday successfully launched a satellite carried by a home-built rocket, setting alarm bells ringing among Western powers because of the implications for the range of its ballistic missiles.

Rodong said North Korea had long been working on space research and development.

“Currently, our scientists and engineers, in keeping with the international trend, are actively pushing ahead with projects aimed at utilising space for peaceful goals,” it added. (The Australian)

Of course North Korea has used its purported space program as political cover for missle tests before.  Back in 1998, Pyongyang informed the world about the successful launch of the “Kwangmyongsong No.1” satellite (which coincided with a previous round of missile tests).  The satellite supposedly circles the earth playing the Song of General Kim il Sung.  Although no one has been able to verify it is in orbit, as far as the North Korean people are aware the satellite is still circling the earth!  KCNA just reported on it in January.

I should also point out that Pyongyang has consistently emphasized space travel as a policy goal in the mass games. See this photo at Pyongyang’s Moranbong Middle School and this photo in the Mangyongdae Children’s Palace.

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Seoul stock market at 5.5 month high…

Wednesday, April 1st, 2009

UPDATE: According to the Wall Street Journal, Friday was even better:

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, gained 6.78 points, or 0.5%, to end at 1283.75. The index is up 3.7% on this week following last week’s 5.7% gain.

“Improving economic data and overnight gains in offshore markets lent support to the market, but Asian markets generally lagged U.S. and European peers as they needed to slow down after steep gains over a short period,” said Kim Hak-kyoon, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities.

“But the upward march has not stopped and foreigners continued to show strong appetite for local stocks again today,” added Kim.

Meanwhile, market participants didn’t react much to news that North Korea may launch a rocket as early Saturday.

“Isn’t it the fact that North Korea will launch a rocket? The key to determine the mood in the financial market will be how South Korea and the U.S. will handle the case. So far market participants, in particular foreigners, don’t seem to worry too much about that,” said Kim at Korea Investment & Securities.

Market analysts continued to treat the potential missile launch as a short-term event to the financial market.
“North Korea’s main goal seems to be to push for a lifting of current sanctions and get economic aid flowing by showing off its ability to attack the mainland of the U.S.,” said You Seung-min, an analyst at Samsung Securities. “In reality any direct military clash seems to be unlikely….The stock market will likely return fast to its normal track after experiencing short-term volatility caused by the launch.”

ORIGINAL POST:Just the news I expected (sort of).  According to Reuters:

Meanwhile investors largely ignored news that North Korea had begun fueling a long-range rocket it plans to launch between April 4-8, starting a process that experts say means the rocket will be ready for lift-off in three to four days.

“Yes, the North will probably launch the missile, and that certainly can’t be good. But markets will probably bounce backafter a couple days as they always do…market participants have learned over time to remain calm to North Korea-related developments,” Lee added.

Read the full articles here:
S Korean Shares End Tad Up On Econ Recovery Hopes
Wall Street Journal
Soo-Kyung Seo
4/3/2009

Seoul shares hit 5-½ mth high;North news ignored
Reuters
Jungyoun Park
4/1/2009

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Musudan rocket set up

Sunday, March 29th, 2009

isis-musudan.JPGThough this web page is not focused on military affairs, today the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) sent out a picture of North Korea’s Taepodong 2 missile sitting on the launch pad at Musudan-ri. According to their email:

ISIS has obtained commercial satellite imagery from DigitalGlobe taken at approximately 11:00 AM local time on March 29, 2009 of the Musudan-ri missile site in North Korea. The missile is clearly visible in this image. It is also casting a shadow that is clearly differentiated from the missile launch gantry. According to news reports, the missile was installed on or after Tuesday, March 24, 2009. Since the missile is so easily seen in this image versus in imagery over the past several days since March 24 , it is likely that North Korea was previously shrouding the missile.

You may see the ISIS report here.

You can see the launch trajectory mapped out on Google Earth here.

As the T-2 will not threaten US territory, Uncle Sam has no plans to interfere with the launch.

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