North Korean Economy Watch

Quoting from the article:

North Korea has increased the number of its nationals working at a Seoul-funded industrial estate in the communist state since tighter border controls were introduced, data showed Sunday.

Statistics from South Korea’s unification ministry show North Korean workers numbered 37,168 in Kaesong, the estate just north of the border, on Friday, up from 36,618 on November 31.

On December 1 North Korea imposed stricter border controls and expelled hundreds of South Koreans from Kaesong amid strained cross-border ties, leading to fears in Seoul that Kaesong will eventually be closed down.

“The latest statistics show North Korea will not shut down Kaesong but thoroughly protect business there,” Kim Yong-Hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul’s Dongguk University, told AFP.

“The North is saying tighter border controls are targeting the Seoul government, not private businesses there, in a dual-track policy on the South.”

Read the full article here:
Number of NKoreans increased at Seoul-funded estate
AFP
12/14/2008

Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
12/10/2008

The North Korean authorities recently announced the intention to sell all industrial products in state-operated stores, soon after announcing the revised “10th-day farmers markets,” which open only on the 1st, 11th and 21st of every month, starting from next year.

According to an inside source in North Hamkyung Province, a new instruction on the sale of industrial products in state-operated stores was introduced during the latest cadres’ lectures. As rumors of the large-scale entry of Chinese goods onto the market due to Chinese loans circulate among people, there has been in a flutter in the market.

The source stated that the idea of industrial product sales was introduced during a cadres’ lecture on the 29th of November under the title, “measures to improve the current situation and people’s lives,” which also explained the transformation of the current market system into the “10th-day farmers market” system.

In the source’s opinion, “It signifies the government’s attempt to monopolize the industrial-product market, which was actively and spontaneously established by the people after the ‘march of tribulation’ in the late 1990s. Industrial goods to be sold in the state-operated stores would include both Chinese and North Korean products.

During the lecture, it was stated that “All industrial goods that have been passing through the jangmadang (markets) must now be sold in the state-operated stores and only vegetables or certain agricultural products can be sold within the farmers markets,” which suggests the prohibition of individuals selling food-related products and industrial goods.

With regard to the backdrop of this policy, the authorities explained that, “The current market was a temporary measure taken by the state considering the difficult situations caused by the march of tribulation. However, the markets after some time deviated from the state’s intention and socialist economic principles and have become a hotbed of crimes generating capitalist and anti-socialist trends. Therefore, we are ridding ourselves of all markets and reviving the farmers market.”

The source explained that this measure does not seem to “simply control the markets. But if they begin selling industrial products in the state-operated stores, they would be able to circulate money within the regime that has been circulating within private markets and among individuals by tying purchase profits to national banks.

He said, “Due to the jangmadang, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened. And, because money is not flowing within the regime, the authorities are getting rid of private sales to revive the banks so as to recover the regime economy… It seems the state-controlled economy will become better next year” he added.

However, the source also relayed that “Although they announced the selling of industrial goods only in the state-operated stores from next year, nothing, regarding exactly when and how, was mentioned during the lecture.”

“There is also another rumor that even ‘procurement stores’ would have to sell products on the same price level with the state-operated stores, or they would have to close down. It basically signifies that the regime will not permit any form of private sales, by selling all products that had been sold by individuals” he added.

The source reported that there have been heated debates on this decision among North Koreans.

“Famers gladly took this decision that industrial goods will sell in state-operated stores because they have been complaining that they sold agricultural products at next to nothing while buying industrial goods at such a high price. They are expecting that industrial goods will cost less than now” the source reported.

“However, workers in urban areas are extremely concerned that they cannot sell anything in the jangmadang. An average workers’ salary is 1,500 North Korean Won and if individuals are not permitted to sell, workers’ families will be harshly affected” he forecasted.

The source continued on and said, “Even though they say workers get paid well, how are they expected to live when a pair of military boots costs 9,000 North Korean won. One month’s salary is not even half a kilo of rice.”

The source in the end expressed concern because workers began “explicitly complaining about cadres who only fill themselves up. I personally think that there will begin a massive war within the markets starting from New Year’s Day”.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-8-1
12/8/2008

The North Korean online magazine ‘Our Nation (uri minjokkiri)’ emphasized on January 1 that development of national defense industries would be prioritized, stating that it was “the best way to move forward and harden a strong national defense while at the same time developing the entire economy.”

In an article titled, “The Path to Economic Construction of the Military-first Era,” the website reminded the reader of the goal of building a strong and prosperous nation by 2012, and stated that Kim Jong Il had said that building up the economy was the “main line of construction for the building of a Strong and Prosperous Nation.” It went on, “Today’s era is the era in which the national economic strength is determined by the amount of development of the national defense industries,” and, “National defense industries are in a leading position, while the independent establishment of the core economic structure is necessary, and a strong economic base can be constructed.”

The magazine emphasized, “The might of heavy industry can be further strengthened following the completion of the basis of the national defense industries, also ceaselessly developing light industry and agriculture.” The article also stressed that as North Korea’s national defense industries are at a comparatively high level internationally, matching that of the United States, and that he national economy overwhelming potential is easy to see.

The article noted that today’s military competition between nations is practically scientific and technological competition, and, “strengthening of national defense in every way based on science and technology, and establishing a framework of science and technology and deciding to quickly develop a strong and prosperous nation by focusing on science is really the path for building the economy in the Military-first Era.”

The magazine emphasized that this military-first era economic building plan was “truly for the people, and was the most civic path to prepare national economic strength for public services.” “In accordance with changes in the political atmosphere and actual conditions, the amount of energy applied to building of national defense and economic construction, citizens’ livelihoods, or other realms could vary, but the true requirement of the building of the socialist economy is to ceaselessly raise the level of the livelihoods of the people, and ultimately, this goal can never waver.”

Last week, North Korean Economy Watch reported Pyongyang’s irrational economic policy threats which could end the flow of millions of South Korean dollars into North Korean coffers.  I use the word “irrational” because government policies are typically designed to increase revenues to the treasury (or to coalition / constituent members), not scare them away.  Today, however, North Korea reaffirmed its commitment to closing the border with South Korea on December 1, though with some qualifications:

1. The North Koreans will end “the train to nowhere” (c) NKeconWatch. This is puzzling because of all the inter-Korean projects, this one is the least “contaminating.” The South Korean government pays the North Korean government to send an empty train across the border each day.  Why jeopardize this easy money?

2. The North Koreans will end the Kaesong day tours.  This will not be good for Hyundai Asan (HA), which is already suffering losses from the idle Kumgangsan resort.  On the plus side for HA, since this project merely bussed people around Kaesong, they will not be leaving much fixed capital on the northern side of the DMZ.  Still, it is strange that the North Koreans would seek to end this program.  Although it is slightly “contaminating” in that hundreds of South Koreans are shuffled through Kaesong every day, the North’s citizens are generally isolated from their wealthy neighbors. Additionally, I estimate that this program has grossed the North Koreans nearly USD$10 million since it was launched nearly a year ago. This is not an insignificant amount of money to the DPRK.

3. The ultimate fate of the Kaesong Industrial Zone remains uncertain.  Although the North Koreans have threatened to “selectively expel” up to half of the South Koreans in the facility, some managers remain optimistic:

“(The North) never said it would halt production or expel staff related to the production process. So even in the worst case of operating with only half of the staff, we think there won’t be any problem in production,” said Lee Eun-suk, an official at Shinwon Corp, which has clothing factories at Kaesong. (Reuters, via the Washington Post)

Unless North Korea’s policy makers are terminating the flow of economic rents into the country to curb the power of some particular official or interest group, there are not many instances where these actions could be considered shrewd.  Adding to the confusion, most analysts presume that the majority of the South’s construction and wage fees are distributed to the small cohort of high-ranking North Korean policy makers who ostensibly signed off on the projects in the first place.  So why would they now decide to end their own direct funding?

These policy decisions, moreover, will likely affect the North Koreans in ways they do not yet seem to anticipate, particularly when it comes to attracting private foreign direct investment (which is desperately needed).  Private investors will not be attracted to a business environment where the rules of the game are prone to changing every few months.  Investment entrepreneurs will not risk the appropriation of large scale fixed assets.  International aid and official foreign direct investment will probably go on as usual as these tasks have more to do with political decisions than economic.

So what is going on?  That is the million dollar question, and speculation in this case is not worth all that much.  The Daily NK, however, claims to have interviewed an “official” from Pyongyang who discussed recent developments in the Kaesong Industrial Zone.  His claim is that the North Koreans made the decision to close the Kaesong Zone for internal political reasons:

Q. What is the reason that North Korea is trying to suspend the business in the Kaesong Industrial Complex?

A. In fact, the story about the suspension of the Kaesong Complex has emanated from Pyongyang since this fall, but it had been decided as an instruction of the Party in Pyongyang late last year.

It is hard to say conclusively what is happening in Kaesong, because there are so many complicated things at work. People from the Party in Pyongyang say that the Kaesong Complex and tourism should fall into disuse and the Mt. Geumgang tourism site should be left alone. Whether or not the Kaesong Complex is thrown away is only up to our economy condition and also the General (Kim Jong Il)’s decision.

Q. Do you mean that instructions on the Kaesong Complex have already been decided internally by the Party?

A.Yes, you can say that. This was because at the beginning, they started it on in the precondition of switching workers once a year, but now they know that switching workers every year is impossible.

Additionally, rumors on South Chosun have been constantly circulating among workers and their families, so illusion of the South have now become uncontrollable among the people. The authorities cannot overlook this situation.

From the Party’s view, each worker in Mt. Geumgang and Kaesong is like a poster advertising capitalism. Due to them, our socialist system could be cracked.

As I know, at least 20 affiliates with Kaesong Complex came into questioning for advertising South Chosun and capitalism.

There was a thorough reshuffling in the Party last year. There is nobody who talks about Kaesong or Mt. Geumgang.

Q. Can North Korea ignore the abundant dollars from Kaesong in practice?

A. Frankly speaking, we have relied on it due to money. Even right now, if South Korea treats things like the Mt. Geumgang shooting accident flexibly and starts the tours again, everything is okay. The money we want does not need to come only from South Korea. There are Yuan, Rubles and dollars as well. They are all the same.

Although our economy is so terrible, we will not establish the national vision only targeted on making money. You should bear this point in mind.

Thoughts and opinions apprecaited. 

Read more here:
There Is an Internal Reason for the Bluff on Kaesong
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
11/16/2008

Kaesong Staff to Be Expelled
Daily NK
Kim So Yeol
11/24/2008

Kaesong Tour and Trains are Suspended
Daily NK
Jeong Jae Sung
11/24/2008

North Korea to Halt Cross-Border Rail Service, Tours
Bloomberg
Heejin Koo
11/24/2008

North Korea prepares to shut border with South
Reuters (via Washington Post)
Jonathan Thatcher
11/24/2008

N. Korea Stiffens Diplomatic Stance
New York Times
Choe Sang-hun
11/24/2008

UPDATE: Marcus Noland discussed this subject with the Daily NK.  Joshua has some thoughts at One Free Korea.

ORIGINAL POST: Hyundai Asan (HA) was having a good year up through July 2008.  At that point, inter-Korean trade volume had experienced a 23% year-over-year  increase—reaching US$880 million.   Commercial trade comprised 94% of this volume, up from 78%, and the number of firms conducting inter-Korean trade reached 526, up from 324.

…and then a South Korean tourist was shot by North Korean soldiers at HA’s flagship project, the Kumgang tourist resort.  Shortly after the shooting, the South Korean government halted tourism to Kumgangsan until the DPRK agreed to launch a joint investigation into the shooting and guaranteed the safety of tourists—which never happened.  As a result, the newly constructed six-star “Kumgang Ananti Golf and Spa Resort” desigend by Korean- American architect Min Sung Jin, sits unused, and revenues at HA are likely to fall to as low as 220 billion won (US$165 million), from about 300 billion won last year (Yonhap).

Despite the troubles at Kumgangsan, the joint-Korean projects on the west coast (Kaesong Industrial Zone and Kaesong tourism) remained unaffected.  The Kaesong Industrial Zone, the most ambitious and risky project, has continued to receive support from both the North and South Korean governments, and the Kaesong tours have grossed the North Korean government nearly $10 million since the project was launched in December 2007. 

Since I operate on the assumption that people will never turn down free money, even communist governments, I have been skeptical that the DPRK would jeopardize these investments.  As of this week, however, it looks like my assumption is wrong.  It seems the DPRK remains intent to cut off its nose to spite its face.  On November 9, 2008:

A North Korean military team visited an inter-Korean industrial complex in Gaeseong, North Korea, last week to check personnel and facilities there.

Local experts speculated that the unprecedented survey is aimed at putting pressure on the South, whose civic groups continue to send propaganda fliers containing criticism of the North’s dictatorship.

Five military officials looked around the industrial park, Moon Moo-hong, chairman of the Kaesong Indutrial District Management Committee (KIDMAC), said.

“They made the rounds of 11 companies in the complex in the morning and asked about the amount of investment, capital, the number of workers, their salaries and working conditions,” he said.

The officials, in military uniforms, asked about how long it would take to empty the complex several times during the six-hour inspection, he added.

They did not show an amicable attitude either, saying they were not visiting to give out business cards and they had nothing to talk about.

A government official asking to remain anonymous said the visit can be read as a threat to drive out South Korean companies from the complex. (Korea Times)

Who was leading the military delegation? Lt. General Kim Yong Chol:

Kim is widely known as Pyongyang’s chief delegate to inter-Korean general-level talks in South Korea, but this time, he assumed the title of policy chief of the National Defense Committee, the most powerful organization in the North. While inspecting infrastructure and companies at the complex, he reportedly asked, “How long would it take for South Korean companies to pack up and go home?” (Donga Ilbo)

Economically, this is a terrible move:

The complex employs 35,000 North Korean workers who earn 55 dollars a month (63 dollars including social insurance), an amount considered extremely high by North Korean standards. Though the communist regime deducts a significant sum from their salaries, workers there are clearly healthier and better fed than their malnourished neighbors. If each of these workers is assumed to be part of a family of four, the complex feeds 140,000 North Koreans. (Donga Ilbo)

Yet yesterday, the implicit threat to close the border was made explicit:

[On] Wednesday, North Korea’s military threatened to “strictly restrict and cut off” all overland passage through the military demarcation line starting Dec. 1 in protest over Seoul’s “confrontational” policy. (Yonhap)

and

A Red Cross office in the North with the only civilian phone link will shut. (BBC)

Hyundai Asan Corp. said that it has yet to receive an official notice from North Korea on the suspension of its tour program to a historic city in the North, despite Pyongyang’s announcement to restrict border crossings. (Yonhap)

So what has made the DPRK so angry that its leaders are willing to take such drastic action?  Judging only from the public statments by the DPRK’s military spokesmen, it seems to be the proliferation of balloons and anti-Kim Jong il leaflets that human rights groups are sending across the DMZ.   

This seems bizarre because balloons have been crossing the DMZ for decades.  The North Korean villages along the DMZ know exactly how to deal with these leaflets and it is fairly routine for work groups to be organized to go pick them up.  Additionally, North Korea’s leaders are smart enough to know that the South Korean government has no legal authority to prevent its citizens from undertaking these activities.  So the DPRK’s ultimate goals here must be greater than stopping human rights groups from sending the balloons.

Ironically, it is the same human rights groups that are sending the balloons across the border who are most vocal about closing down the Kaesong Industrial Zone and ending the Kaesong tourism project. This is because they believe that the revenues generated by these projects are diverted to support the government with little going to the actual workers.  If the North Korean government ends these inter-Korean projects it will be delivering its most vocal opponents a double victory—the DPRK will end up with more balloons and less South Korean money.  If I was in the business of sending balloons across the DMZ, I would be sending out fundraising letters right now telling potential donors how effective my strategy is. 

Anyhow, if all of this was not strange enough, North Korea has slowed dismantling of the Yongbyon reactor (again), claiming the US owes it energy aid, and asserted that they never agreed to a nuclear verification deal which gives inspectors permission to collect samples and remove them from the country for analys.  Are they just trying to squeeze more concessions out of the Six-Party talks? Or is this a calculated political strategy?

Below is an excerpt from the Economist Intelligence Unit Views Wire 11/1/2008 (h/t Oliver): 

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: The immediate outlook for North Korea’s foreign relations is positive. The country’s removal in October from the US State Department’s list of states regarded as sponsoring terrorism signals that the nuclear six-party talks (SPT, also involving China, the US, Russia, Japan and South Korea) are back on track, at least for now. The delisting also clears the way for North Korea, if it so desired, to apply to join the World Bank and the IMF, which the US was previously bound to oppose. However, the rollercoaster of the past three months, and the fact that the SPT are now in their sixth year, counsels caution as to the depth or irreversibility of any progress.

POLICY TRENDS: The omens for progress on economic reform are not propitious. Six years on from the “special measures” (the word “reform” remains discouragingly taboo) of July 2002, it is clear that these have not galvanised GDP growth, which was negative during 2006 and 2007, according to the Bank of Korea (the South’s central bank). Nor have they been a harbinger of wider or deeper institutional reform. Even though the North Korean state can no longer provide and most of its citizens must scrape a living from markets, the regime still seems perversely determined to keep markets in check.

ECONOMIC GROWTH: A reportedly better autumn harvest may bring some respite, but will not alter the fundamental plight of most North Koreans, who must scrabble to ensure even a meagre amount of food. Meanwhile, heavy industry, outmoded and worn out, has no potential to recover, and infrastructure remains in a parlous state. Transforming all of this would require two as yet unmet conditions: large-scale capital investment, which can only come from abroad, and the will to pursue genuine market reforms. The paltry energy aid and other assistance offered via the SPT is no substitute for the major investment needed, the precondition of which is complete denuclearisation.

From Wikipedia:

PyongSu Joint Venture Company, Limited is a pharmaceutical company jointly founded in 2002 by Pyongyang Pharmaceutical Company in North Korea and a company headquartered in Hong Kong which is a market leader in pharmaceuticals distribution and contract manufacturing in Asia. The corporate headquarters of PyongSu are in the Songyo district in Pyongyang. PyongSu started trial production in 2004 and, as of 2005, engaged in manufacturing mainly painkillers and antibiotics. At the end of 2006 the foreign-invested stake was sold to another investor. Felix Abt, the 3rd managing director (or president) managed to avoid the closure of the company by turning the heavily loss-making operation into a profit-making one. PyongSu became the first North Korean pharmaceutical factory to reach GMP (a universally recognized quality standard in the pharmaceutical industry as defined by the WHO), repeatedly inspected and confirmed by the WHO. It also became the first ever North Korean company to participate in tender competitions and to win contracts against foreign competitors from China, India, Germany and elsewhere. With an increasing cash-flow generated by itself, the company has even become able to buy and profitably operate pharmacies and other sales outlets in the country. Towards the end of 2008 managing director Felix Abt explained that the company now enjoys 1) a portfolio of products made by itself including an anti-helmintic and an anti-hypertensive drug that meets the patients’ needs well 2) a good reputation as a quality and service-minded company in the DPR Korea and the recognition as the “model company” of the domestic pharmaceutical industry. 3) a good market penetration thanks to wholesaling (that includes a variety of complementary products at affordable prices imported directly from reliable GMP-manufacturers) and its own profitable retail outlets (i.e. pharmacies) and 4) a healthy growth (including a high amount of orders on hand for 2009), sustainability and profitability.

Click here to read a recent interview by Mr. Abt in Interview Blog.

The Asia Sentinel offers an update on Pyonghwa Motors’ production and sales numbers:

Does it make economic sense to build or invest in a car factory for a country with 23 million people but fewer than 30,000 vehicles, a city where cars are so scarce that in the warmer months, traffic ladies swinging their stop signs act in place of electric lights, where hardly anybody knows how to drive? And why is Sun Mymung Moon, owner of an international business empire and a virulent anti-communist, investing in North Korea?

Pyeonghwa Motors invested around US$55 million to build the factory on a one-time rice paddy near the port city of Nampo, about 50 kilometers southwest of Pyongyang. In 2003, the JoongAng Daily quoted an executive from the Seoul-based Pyeonghwa, saying he expected the factory, with capacity to build 20,000 cars a year, to eventually turn a profit. However, a spokesman based in Seoul says Pyeonghwa has produced only 2,000 cars and pickup trucks in their first five years of operation.

How many cars have they actually sold? For North Korea, any statistics, much less accurate ones, are “very difficult to come by,” said Erik van Ingen Schenau, an Asian car analyst and author of the book “Automobiles Made in North Korea.” He quotes a French newspaper article that claims the factory sold around 400 vehicles, including SUVs, pickups, and sedans, in 2006.  He estimates the factory sold anyone from 400 to 1000 cars in 2007 and 2008, including the cars they exported to Mekong Auto, a Vietnam-based Moon company, and including the vehicles that they produced with the Shenyang-based China Brilliance. 

The Pyeonghwa factory produces cars with names such as Whistle, Cuckoo, and Three Thousand Li, which refers to the national territory of Korea, both North and South peppering the empty streets of Pyongyang, “You see these cars a lot, especially the Cuckoo,” said Simon Cockerell, general manager of Koryo Tours, one of the few western tour companies licensed to operate in North Korea. 

“It took drivers some getting used to because they were used to driving Japanese cars, with steering wheels on the right,” Cockerell said. 

Like most items produced in North Korea, the Pyeonghwa vehicles are not known for their quality. “They are probably nearly all hand-assembled, and based on a model from a factory in China that does not have a good reputation,” van Ingen Schenau said. “They make cars that no one is interested and in that they cannot export to Japan or South Korea. Maybe it is a prestige item to have a car factory in the country, but it does not seem to have worked out at the moment.”

The Whistle, based on the Fiat Siena, is one of the Pyeonghwa vehicles featured on billboards. It sits on a field next to a superimposed image of the Pyongyang Arch of Triumph. Built to commemorate Kim Il Sung and the Korean nation’s resistance to the Japanese occupation, the arch stands 60 meters tall, more than 10 meters taller than its model, the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. A boy stands next to the car one hand holding a trophy, while waving a hand, a smile on his face and a medal around his neck.  The billboard reads: “Whistle. A Strong and Beautiful Automobile.”

It is important to remember the target audience of the billboard. It is not only for the few thousand European tourists who visit the country for six days at a time, or the few hundred businessmen and embassy staff who live in one of the few foreigner hotels isolated from the city. The billboards also exist for the residents of Pyongyang, to show them that their country, despite the harm done to it by the entire capitalist world, is still able to go its own way and produce a strong and handsome car.

The full article can be found here:
North Korea in the Slow Lane
Asia Sentinel
Isaac Stone Fish  
10/31/2008

Although many would assume that North Korea’s economic isolation would insulate it from recent global financial instability, this does not appear to be the case.  According to the Wall Street Journal:

North Korea does little trade with the rest of the world — about $2 billion annually — and now it’s being hurt by lower prices paid by its biggest trading partner, China, according to report from a South Korean institute that specializes in North Korea research.

In recent weeks, the Chinese companies that buy North Korean ores and minerals like zinc, which are some of its biggest exports, have slashed the prices they’re willing to pay. That’s forced some North Korean mining firms to halt production and even produced a drop in the smuggling of ore and scrap, trade that’s illegal in the North but is believed to play an important role in supporting the impoverished country.

Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Seoul-based Institute for Far Eastern Studies who wrote the report issued Thursday, said he learned about the commodity-trade problems from North Koreans doing business in China

“Chinese companies that are affected by global trends don’t want to pay as much as they used to for North Korean raw materials or resources,” Mr. Lim said. “Thus, North Korean merchants can’t make profits from trade.”

The price pressure exerted by Chinese traders on North Korean companies is in line with the broader drop in commodity prices in recent months. But it has imposed new burdens on North Korea in what is shaping up to be a terrible year there.

Official North Korean media have published reports saying the global financial crisis will ruin the U.S. and other industrial powers. But in the report, the Institute for Far Eastern Studies said “North Korean people are becoming very anxious over the possibility of the international economic crisis having a long-term impact.”

Below is the IFES report mentioned in the Wall Street Journal:

Global Financial Crisis hits DPRK economy by way of China 
NK Brief No. 08-10-29-1
10/29/2008

Contacts within North Korea are reporting that the North Korean people are becoming very anxious over the possibility of the international economic crisis having a long term impact as not only exports have dropped, but even cross-border smuggling is taking a hit.

Recently, as Chinese traders have more than halved the price of North Korea’s main export goods such as minerals and scrap iron, North Korea’s markets and even construction industry have felt the blow.

As North Korean state-run media outlets report the current financial crisis as the ruin of the United States and other capitalist world powers, they report as if North Korea were completed unaffected by it. On the 20th, the Rodong Sinmun emphasized that the the U.S.’ financial management system was ‘like a candle in the wind.’

However, it has been leaked that since last week, businesses in North Korea have been shutting their doors as a result of the financial crisis. In particular, the value of the North Korean Won has dropped sharply against the Chinese Yuan, and combined with Chinese traders’ reluctance to purchase North Korean goods and calls to lower prices, very little business is being conducted. This has led mines in Hyesan to halt exports of lead and zinc, and with the drop in legitimate exports, of course smuggling has dropped of, as well.

Furthermore, as raw materials from China are not being supplied, construction projects in the North are also grinding to a halt. 

(UPDATE) Barbara Demick reports in the Los Angeles Times:

Despite efforts to keep North Korea’s extreme poverty out of view, a glance around the countryside shows a population in distress. At the root of the problem is a chronic food shortage, the result of inflation, strained relations with neighboring countries and flooding in previous years.

Aid agencies say the level of hunger is not at the point it was in the 1990s, when it was defined as a famine, although they have found a few cases of children suffering from kwashiorkor, the swollen belly syndrome associated with malnutrition. Mostly what they are seeing is a kind of collective listlessness — the kind shown by the people on the streets of Nampo.

“Teachers report that children lack energy and are lagging in social and cognitive development,” reported a group of five U.S. humanitarian agencies in a summer assessment of the food situation. “Workers are unable to put in full days and take longer to complete tasks — which has implications for the success of the early and main harvests.”

Hospitals complained to aid workers of rising infant mortality and declining birth weights. They also said they were seeing 20% to 40% more patients with digestive disorders caused largely by poor nutrition.

The U.N. World Food Program reached similar conclusions. In a recent survey of 375 households, more than 70% were found to be supplementing their diet with weeds and grasses foraged from the countryside. Such wild foods are difficult to digest, especially for children and the elderly. The survey also determined that most adults had started skipping lunch, reducing their diet to two meals a day.

These are some of the same signs that augured the mid-1990s famine, which killed as many as 2 million people, 10% of the population.

“The current situation hasn’t reached the famine proportions that it did during the 1990s. Our hope and goal is to keep it from going over the precipice,” said Nancy Lindborg, president of Mercy Corps, one of the U.S. aid organizations working in North Korea. “You have a number of factors that have conspired to create a really tough food situation.”

In Pyongyang, the capital, residence in which is reserved for the most politically loyal North Koreans, plenty of food is available on sale. A grocery inside the Rakwon Department Store carries Froot Loops and frozen beef. At open-air markets, you can find mangoes, kiwis and pineapples

But the products are far too expensive for most North Koreans, whose official salaries are less than $1 a month — 60 to 75 cents monthly for the workers surveyed by the World Food Program. And the farther you get from Pyongyang, the poorer are the people.

Nampo is 25 miles southwest of the capital, on the Yellow Sea. It used to be a thriving port city, but nowadays its harbor is used mostly for shipments of humanitarian aid. On a weekday morning, many people sit along the sidewalk watching the few cars pass by. They appear to be unemployed or homeless.

North Koreans say that the food situation is improving and that a good harvest is expected this autumn, as a result of improved weather conditions. The last two years were disastrous because of heavy flooding.

“There was a problem before, but it is getting better. We expect a bumper harvest,” said Choe Jong Hun, an official of the Committee for Cultural Relations With Foreign Countries.

North Korea experts, however, are skeptical. “One good harvest is not really going to alter the picture,” said Stephan Haggard, a UC San Diego professor who has written widely on the North Korean famine.

The World Food Program and the U.S. aid organizations are providing food for the most vulnerable, including children and pregnant women. A U.S. ship carrying more than 27,000 tons of bulk corn and soy is slated to arrive in Nampo within days.

International agencies have been trying to raise money to expand their food aid to the general population. Many urban North Koreans are dependent on food rations, which have dwindled to 150 grams a day, or a little more than 5 ounces.

Even in Pyongyang, one can see signs of scarcity behind the facade of what is supposed to be a showcase capital. Foreign residents say they have seen homeless children in the last few months — a notable sight in a totalitarian country where nobody is supposed to wander away from their legal residence. (Los Angeles Times)

Read the full Wall Street Journal articles below:
North Korea Feels Effects of the Crisis
Wall Street Journal
Evan Ramstad and Sungha Park
10/31/2008

North Korean facade of self-sufficiency can’t hide signs of hunger
Los Angeles Times
Barbara Demick
11/2/2008

From GPI:

For many entrepreneurs, North-Korea is a relatively unknown trade destination. For this reason, from 28 September to 4 October 2008, a Dutch economic delegation investigated the business climate in this country. You may download a short report of this unique mission here.  Because of its success, another mission will be organised in 2009.
  
The participants noticed trade and investments in several fields, including textile and garments, shipbuilding, agribusiness, logistics, mining, animation and Information Technology. The findings of the mission will be presented at the seminar “Doing business with North-Korea”, which will take place in The Hague in spring 2009. A videofilm about the tour will be shown as well.
  
If you are interested in business opportunities in North-Korea, or in joining a seminar or trade mission, please contact us for further details. It is also possible for us to give presentations at business seminars abroad, in order to present the findings of the Dutch mission in more detail.
 
With best regards,
Paul Tjia (sr. consultant ‘offshore sourcing’)
GPI Consultancy, P.O. Box 26151, 3002
ED Rotterdam, The Netherlands
E-mail: paul@gpic.nl
tel: +31-10-4254172 
fax: +31-10-4254317
Website: www.gpic.nl
report_dutch_trade_mission_to_north_korea.pdf