North Korean Economy Watch

Daily NK
Kim Min Se
4/18/2007

Cigarette prices escalate as Japan toughens economic sanctions

Following Japan’s economic sanctions, North Koreans are finding it to difficult to splash out on luxury goods, an inside source informed on the 17th.

Though only a minority of the rich are experiencing this hardship as the import of Japanese cigarettes and foods slowly come to a halt, it will be interesting to note what further repercussions will follow as a result of Japan’s sanctions.

The North Korean rich often lavish on “Seven” cigarettes, made in Japan which is known to be different to “Mild Seven” sold in South Korea. It is a much stronger cigarette containing 14mg of tar and 1.4mg of nicotine,

Seven was first introduced to North Korea in the mid-1980’s and has captivated tobacco preference of North Koreans ever since. As living standards deteriorate in North Korea Seven cigarettes have become a rare commodity for an average person to have today, though earlier in the 90’s, Seven was a luxury cigarette smoked by the majority of North Koreans. In particular, merchants who accumulated wealth through North Korea-China trade still prefer this brand to others.

Unlike other popular luxuries, smoking is a habit which becomes easily addictive. Hence, a handful of North Korean elites who in the past commonly smoked Seven’s and acquired its taste are experiencing withdrawal symptoms today, due to Japan’s economic sanctions and consequent ban of Seven.

Seven is a strong cigarette and though it sells well throughout the Japanese, it is not a preferred brand in South Korea. While Japan places export bans towards the North, conversely North Korean authorities are also regulating Japanese goods. For this reason, North Korean citizens are smoking these cigarettes in secret.

As supply does not meet demand, the cost of Seven cigarettes has skyrocketed in the cities of Pyongyang and Nampo.

Nowadays, a packet of Seven’s in Pyongyang sells at around 40 Yuan (11,000 North Korean won, US$3.6). This is 7~8 times more expensive than the common North Korean brand of cigarettes “Cat.” Considering that a kilogram of rice costs 800 North Korean won (US$0.26) and the average monthly salary of a worker 3,000~4,000won (US$0.98~1.3), the price of Seven’s is phenomenal.

However, as supply continues to be depleted, rich merchants and powerful ministers face a difficult test.

Furthermore, the rich and former Korean residents of Japan are unable to taste the flavors of popular Japanese foods that they have become accustomed to such as soy sauce, bean paste and instant noodles for a long time. 

Daily NK
Kang Jae Hyok
4/16/2007

In commemoration of the anniversary of Kim Il Song’s 95th birthday (Apr. 15), North Korea has been preparing various spring festivities including the “Arirang” performance.

The number of foreigners visiting North Korea during this time is also expected to escalate.

Recently, the DailyNK confirmed through Chinese merchants that bribery and gifts had been exchanged between North Korean authorities. It is these during these seasons of Kim Il Song and Kim Jong Il’s birthday and the founding of the Workers Party and the Republic that bribes are most favorable.

For the past 4 years, Ma Il Su (pseudonym, 43) a Chinese merchant living in Jilian has been importing North Korean agricultural produce and herbal medicines to sell in China. In a telephone conversation with the DailyNK, he informed on the 12th, “I have prepared a special gift to give to North Korean authorities for when I enter the country on the 14th.”

He said, “On the whole, anyone trading with Chosun (North Korea) also offers gifts to them… The best offering is in the form of money.”

“Offering cash to the nation is the best but there are times when electronic goods are also given” he said.

Ma continued, “In order to trade in Chosun, you need the cooperation of authorities on your side” and said, “To charm the hearts of authorities, gifts must be given frequently. The best way to do this is by offering gifts at times of Kim Il Song and Kim Jong Il’s birthday.”

“You should go to the People’s Committee and offer the gifts to the chairman directly saying, ‘I sincerely pray for the Great Leader’s health and Chosun’s growth.’ Then they (the North Koreans) become ecstatically excited they do not know what to do” he said.

When asked whether or not gifts had to be offered to individual authorities Ma said, “You cannot trade if you do not offer bribes to authorities… Officials prefer cash as well as watches or electronic goods such as widescreen TV’s. In particular, they like watches made from South Korea.”

“I have already arranged for sheets of Chinese currency to give to individual authorities in timing with Kim Il Song’s birthday” he said and added, “Nowadays, offering bribes has become a norm in North Korea. There would be chaos if a gift was not offered.”

Ma said, “I am aware that my fellow tradesmen are offering gifts of similar nature” and estimated, “If we collect the amount of gifts offered by the Chinese, there should be quite a lot.”

Money given by Chinese merchants to the People’s Committee first reaches the respective local authorities of the Party → higher party authorities → central authorities in Pyongyang, and finally is offered as a bribe to Kim Jong Il. In the end, the money is donated into Kim Jong Il’s private fund and used for his personal pleasures.

Following the July 1st measures in 2002, North Korea-China trade has expanded significantly with hundreds of Chinese merchants filtering into North Korea everyday. In accordance with Ma, the number of people offering bribes to North Korean authorities seems to be considerably large.

New York Times
Michael R. Gordon
4/15/2007

The Ethiopian government has denied that it violated United Nations sanctions by carrying out a secret purchase earlier this year of military equipment from North Korea.

The Central Intelligence Agency reported in late January that an Ethiopian-flagged ship had left a North Korean port and that its cargo probably included tank parts and other military cargo, according to American officials.

The purchase of tank parts would violate restrictions on dealings with North Korea imposed by the United Nations Security Council in a resolution adopted in October. The Security Council acted less than a week after North Korea tested a nuclear device.

The Bush administration decided not to press Ethiopia to reject the shipment, and the vessel was not inspected after it took its cargo to a port in Djibouti for overland transport to Ethiopia. Some American officials said the shipment was most likely a Security Council violation.

In a statement issued Friday, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry acknowledged that it had received a cargo shipment from North Korea on Jan. 22, but asserted that it did not include prohibited items like tank parts.

“This shipment contained spare parts for machinery and engineering equipment and raw material for the making of assorted ammunition for small arms,” the Ethiopian statement read. “The United States Embassy in Addis Ababa might have been aware of Ethiopia’s importation of the said cargo from North Korea. “However, the fact is that Ethiopia did not purchase arms or any other item covered by Resolution 1718 under the contractual agreements,” the statement read, referring to the Security Council measure. Ethiopia said the shipment was carried out under the terms of several contracts that were signed with North Korea in June and was paid for in advance.

The State Department has declined to comment on the details of this episode.

Ethiopia purchased $20 million worth of arms from North Korea in 2001, according to American estimates, and American officials say this pattern has continued. Ethiopia has an arsenal of Soviet T-55 tanks and other Soviet-style equipment. The United States has sought to persuade Ethiopia to wean itself from its longstanding reliance on North Korea for inexpensive Soviet-era military equipment.

The United States has had close ties with Ethiopia. American officials say that Ethiopia was provided with American intelligence about the location of Islamist forces before its recent offensive in neighboring Somalia. On Jan. 7, American AC-130 gunships launched two strikes on terrorist targets from an airstrip inside Ethiopia, according to American officials. Ethiopia has said such reports are a fabrication.

Previous Washington Post Story below…

(more…)

Daily NK
Kang Jae Hyok
4/9/2007

Since the nuclear experiment last year trade between North Korea and China had dwindled. However, lately, business is prospering thanks to the friendly moods between the U.S. and North Korea. Nonetheless, the frequent change in customs officers and their unreasonable requests are disturbing the businessmen.

Some Chinese merchants travel into and out of North Korea everyday, or at the least every couple of days. One businessman, Han Chul Ryong (pseudonym, Korean-Chinese, 42) who had recently visited North Korea for business, expressed his feelings in a concerned voice in a telephone conversation with the DailyNK on the 6th.

Han currently lives in Jilian and has been trading goods with North Korea for 4 years now. With a 2.5 ton truck, he imports and sells North Korean seafood and herbal medicines in China.

Han said, “Nowadays, I don’t want to trade anymore because of the customs officers. They make our lives so difficult… It’s like they have some sort of steel plate over their faces or something. They have no dignity, nothing.”

He added, “Customs officers are so competitive and make so many demands that I cannot remember them all unless it is written down in a notebook. They request a variety of goods such as food, fruits, medicine and electronic goods. Alcohol and cigarettes are a must.”

Another tradesman, Kim Chan Joo (pseudonym) who was traveling with Han said, “Some customs officers go as far as demanding materials for home renovations such as cement, iron rods, window panes, windows, doors and nails.”

When asked what kind of privileges customs officers give after receiving bribes, Kim responded, “Of courses there are privileges… Sometimes they reduce taxes or place a blind eye to goods that should not pass through.”

He said, “There is a saying, ‘A cow fed also gives dung.’ A customs officer who has been fed bribes cannot possibly enforce strict control” and added, “Though customs officers have helped increase trade, as time goes by, the standard of their demands are also rising.”

“That’s not the only annoying problem. After going to all that trouble developing friendly relations with customs officers, they are replaced by new ones and hence there are many losses… It takes double time and money to acquire friendly relations with newly replaced customs officers,” Kim said.

Being a customs officer is considered one of the upper middle-class jobs in North Korea. Unlike an average office worker, customs officers are treated similar to the army. The National Safety Agency is even in charge of some of the customs officers.

Often these people are greedy to accumulate funds for retirement or for their children and as a result, try to gather as much as they can while in office. Even in a chaotic North Korea society, the position of customs officer is considered the yolk of an egg. Consequently, officers go to all means to confiscate as much money as they can from Chinese tradesmen and relatives visiting family.

North Korean authorities are strengthening control over customs officers, however it is difficult to obliterate the problem as it is so deeply rooted. Rather, than the situation dying out, it seems that their unreasonable attitude will increase.

If a customs officer makes receives too many anonymous complaints, he/she is given a warning or penalty. When the situation worsens, the customs officer is then demoted to a different office or in the worse case, dismissed from duty.

Recently, it seems that North Korean authorities have become more aware of the situation and are making efforts to enforce control. One method is removing the officers who are dependent on this corrupt system to different locations.

Han said, “If customs officers don’t do this, it is hard for them to eat and live… Though the demands by Chosun customs officers are increasing by the day, in order to trade there is no other way.”

Yonhap
4/6/2007

South Korea sent $400,000 in cash to North Korea Friday via the country’s Red Cross officials to help the North purchase computers and other supplies for video-link reunions of families between the two Koreas, officials said.

This is the first time for the Seoul government to send cash aid to the communist North, though bilateral trade exceeded $1 billion for the second consecutive year last year.

“Officials from the National Red Cross left for North Korea Thursday on a boat, carrying funds for the North’s video reunion center,” an official from the Ministry of Unification told reporters on condition of anonymity.

The boat carrying the South Korean officials, as well as 50 construction trucks promised to the impoverished North as aid for its flood damages last year, left Incheon on Friday.

The boat arrived at the North’s Nampo Port earlier Friday, according to ministry officials.

The money is to be used to purchase computers and TV monitors needed for the special kind of reunions between separated families via video conferencing.

North and South Korea have held more than a dozen rounds of face-to-face reunions since the historic inter-Korean summit in 2000, involving over 10,000 people from both sides.

However, over 90,000 South Koreans remain separated from their loved ones in the North since the end of the Korean War in 1953.

“We had no choice (but to give cash) because we could not provide actual goods,” most of which are prohibited from entering the communist nation under the U.S. law on the control of strategic goods, an official said.

Daily NK
Han Young Jin
4/5/2007

On the 30th, Huanqiushibao, an international affiliated magazine of the Chinese People’s Daily, noted the above statement on Russia’s recent movement to invest in North Korea.

The paper said, “The Russian natural fuel gas business has already completed the preparation for providing energy support and is planning to manufacture petroleum in North Korea.”

“Russia has pioneered the Chungjin-Siberia railroad for a long time” and “if they retain the Eurasia continental rail, then they will gain an annual economic profit of four hundred million dollars,” the paper commented.

Further, the paper said that “Russia is finishing its preparation of surplus concentration in the Wondong (Far Eastern region) to export to North Korea.” As a provision of support to invest in North Korea, Russia is also driving the construction of the Kraskino-Chungjin 50,000 kv railway line for exporting Korea remodeling business and concentration of energy in Wondong to three thermal generating plants in the North.

The paper relays a Russian economic expert’s voice to expand investment in North Korea

Prekofts, Russia’s Wondong Economic Research Institute Chair, said, while emphasizing the importance of investment expansion, “We cannot limit items to invest in North Korea to resource and energy areas. China has already built a glass factory in North Korea. Why can’t we do what China is doing?”

Russia Considers Cancellation of 80 percent of North Korean debt

The paper said, “According to the numbers of the Russian government authorities, the 2006 trade figure with North Korea amounted to 210 million dollars and has been reduced by 13 percent compared to the previous year.” In the midst of such a situation, Russia has sufficiently considered the development potential of the North Korean market and is establishing a plan to encroach on the market according to the forecast that “it will be advantageous for the pre-acquiring party.”

According to the paper, President Putin commented, “The economic power with the world’s fastest rate of financial progress is overwhelmingly the Asia-Pacific region.”

The paper also said that because Russia considers of importance the strategic position of North Korea for connecting Europe and Asia-Pacific countries, it has considered the forward-looking way of remitting 80 percent (64 hundred million dollars) of North Korea’s 80 hundred million dollar debt.

The current system of exchange between North Korea and Russia is the former exporting labor power and agricultural goods and latter exporting energy, oil, and raw materials.

The paper reported that there has been opposing public opinion regarding Russia’s investment in North Korea. Because North Korea is not economically well-off, short-term recovery of investment gains is difficult.

The paper pointed out that a Russian merchant Merikonoft, who engages in international trade, said the following, “I do not have immediate plans to invest in North Korea. North Korea does not have laws for protecting foreign capital, so doing business is a type of exploration.”

Yonhap
4/5/2007

Commercial trade between South and North Korea rose 40 percent to US$187.08 million year-on-year in the first quarter, a top unification official said Thursday.

The increase was mainly attributed to an influx of zinc bullion, sand, fishery items, shoes, clothing and watches into a joint industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

“But noncommercial trade between the two sides rose a mere 6.7 percent to $278.11 million in the first quarter because of the halt in government and civic aid to the North,” Vice Unification Minister Shin Un-sang said in a press briefing.

Last week, South Korea sent the first batch of its promised 300,000 tons of fertilizer aid as well as flood relief supplies to the North.

Shortly after the North conducted missile tests in July, the South suspended food and fertilizer aid along with its emergency aid to the impoverished North. In retaliation, the communist nation suspended inter-Korean talks, family reunions and the construction of a family reunion center.

In March, the two Koreas agreed to resume humanitarian aid and family reunion events just days after North Korea promised to take steps to shut down its main nuclear reactor and eventually disable it in return for energy aid from South Korea, the United States, China, Russia and Japan.

Yonhap
4/3/2007

Incoming Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said Tuesday that goods produced in a joint industrial complex in North Korea will benefit from a free trade pact agreed upon with the United States the previous day.

Denying reports that the free trade agreement put aside the country-of-origin issue for future negotiations, Han said that the two countries cleared the way for treating goods produced in the Kaesong Industrial Complex as made in South Korea.

“The media reports that the Kaesong Industrial Complex was put on as a ‘built-in’ agenda are not true,” Han, who took office early in the day, told reporters in his inaugural press conference at the government building.

A “built-in” agenda refers to a negotiating scheme for sensitive issues in which the countries involved agree to put them on hold and discuss them in the future. Local reports have called the Kaesong issue “built-in,” as Seoul has been pushing for its inclusion in the trade deal despite Washington’s objection.

Under the deal, the two sides agreed to establish a “committee on outward processing zones on the Korean Peninsula” to discuss the Kaesong issue as part of their trade liberalization. But they also stipulated that such a step will be made under specific circumstances, such as the progress in denuclearizing North Korea, according to a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Han said the agreement is in line with South Korea’s constitution that its territory is the entire Korean Peninsula, and it does not recognize North Korea as a state.

Han also said the government will make public all of the contents of the agreement in mid-May when it is expected to be completed, and all the documents related to the agreement will be released three years later.

The Kaesong complex, just north of the inter-Korean border, is one of two flagship projects the South operates in the spirit of reconciliation with the North following the historic inter-Korean summit in 2000. Over 11,000 North Korean workers are employed by dozens of South Korean companies there, where they produce garments, utensils and other labor-intensive goods. Another reconciliation project is the operation of tours to the North’s scenic Mount Geumgang.

South Korean companies operating in Kaesong say the inclusion of the goods in the FTA is crucial, as this will allow them to export goods to the world’s largest market, as well as provide a template for future trade deals with other countries. 

U.S. Accepts Kaesung Industrial Complex as an “Outward Processing Zones”
Daily NK
Kim Song
4/3/2007

A press conference was held following the conclusion of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on the 2nd where Korea’s Trade Minister Kim Hyun Chong announced, “The U.S. agreed to recognize the Kaesung Industrial Complex as a remote location.” By this he meant that goods manufactured in Kaesung complex would be accepted as goods made in Korea.

As annexes to the agreement, Committee on Outward Processing Zones on the Korean Peninsula must be established. Undeniably, the article also states that the contents would have to be approved by the U.S.

It seems that both sides agreed that this approach would be the U.S.’s minimal request and compromise on the Kaesung issue and a built-in tactic to keep the negotiating flame burning rather than a deal-breaker.

Previously, the U.S. made concessions regarding Outward Processing Zones with Singapore and Israel’s FTA. As for Korea, these preferential tariffs, not only acknowledges goods manufactured from Kaesung by the FTA, but sets a standard to other sectors in the world such as the European Free Trade Association and ASEAN.

It appears that the recognition of Kaesung as an Outward Processing Zone was based on an agreement that the Korean Peninsula would advance towards denuclearization.

The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will eventually lead to the removal of laws that will further eliminate hostile diplomacy and trade between the U.S. and North Korea. It is possible that denuclearization will establish the normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations and solve the issue of Kaesung naturally, in due time.

However, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is not something to be solved within a short time. As a U.S. official once revealed, amity between the U.S.-North Korea can only be possible when North Korea decides to comply with the rules of the international community. In the bigger picture of the Korean Peninsula and economic conglomerate, Kaesung in relation to denuclearization is only a long-term sketch.

Furthermore, there is one minor glitch. Kaesung complex does not match the international standards accepted by the U.S. in relation to labor requirements and such. At any opportunity given, Jay Lefkowitz, U.S. Special Envoy on Human Rights in North Korea, has continuously targeted wage issues at Kaesung complex. Additionally, there have been many criticisms on pay issues regarding North Korean laborers working even within the nation, as well as violations to contracts of employment.

Throughout the FTA, President Roh Moo Hyun has been striving to protect rice while trying to negotiate the Kaesung Industrial Complex. Though President Roh argues that political calculations were omitted from the negotiations, these two issues contradict his words.

Some argue that the future will depend on South Korea’s attitude to the U.S. It is even possible that this is a political attempt by the U.S. to lure North Korea into denuclearization.

Urgent: How to Topple Kim Jong Il
Foreign Policy Magazine
March/April 2007, P.70-74
Andrei Lankov

From: Andrei Lankov
To: Condoleezza Rice
RE: Bringing Freedom to North Korea

When North Korea tested a nuclear weapon late last year, one thing became clear: The United States’ strategy for dealing with North Korea is failing. Your current policy is based on the assumption that pressuring the small and isolated state will force itto change course. That has not happened—and perhaps never will.

North Korea’s Kim Jong Il and his senior leaders understand that political or economic reforms will probably lead to the collapse of their regime. They face a challenge that their peers in China and Vietnam never did—a prosperous and free “other half” of the same nation. North Korea’s rulers believe that if they introduce reforms, their people will do what the East Germans did more than 15 years ago. So, from the perspective of North Korea’s elite, there are compelling reasons to resist all outside pressure. if anything, foreign pressure (particularly from Americans) fits very well into what Pyongyang wants to propagate— the image of a brave nation standing up to a hostile world dominated by the United States.

Yet, sadly, the burden of encouraging change in North Korea remains the United States’ alone. China and Russia, though not happy about a nuclear North Korea, are primarily concerned with reducing U.S. influence in East Asia. China is sending considerable aid to Pyongyang. You already know that South Korea, supposedly a U.S. ally, is even less willing to join your efforts. Seoul’s major worry is not a North Korean nuclear arsenal but the possibility of sudden regime collapse. A democratic revolution in the North, followed by a German-style unification, would deal a heavy blow to the South Korean economy. That’s why Seoul works to ensure that the regime in Pyongyang remains stable, while it enjoys newfound affluence and North Koreans quietly suffer.

Do not allow this status quo to persist. Lead the fight for change in North Korea. Here are some ideas to make it happen:

Realize a Quiet Revolution Is Already Under Way: For decades, the Hermit Kingdom was as close to an Orwellian nightmare as the world has ever come. But that’s simply not the case anymore. A dramatic transformation has taken place in North Korea in recent years that is chronically underestimated, particularly in Washington. This transformation has made Kim Jong Ii increasingly vulnerable to internal pressures. Yes, North Korea is still a brutal dictatorship. But compared to the 1970s or 1980s, its government has far less control over the daily lives of its people.

With the state-run economy in shambles, the government no longer has the resources to reward “correct” behavior or pay the hordes of lackeys who enforce the will of the Stalinist regime. Corruption runs rampant, and officials are always on the lookout for a bribe. Old regulations still remain on the books, but they are seldom enforced. North Koreans nowadays can travel outside their county of residence without getting permission from the authorities. Private markets, once prohibited, are flourishing. People can easily skip an indoctrination session or two, and minor ideological deviations often go unpunished. It’s a far cry from a free society, but these changes do constitute a considerable relaxation from the old days.

Deliver Information Inside: North Korea has maintained a self-imposed information blockade that is without parallel. Owning radios with free tuning is still technically illegal— a prohibition without precedent anywhere. This news blackout is supposed to keep North Koreans believing that their country is an earthly paradise. But, today, it is crumbling.

North Korea’s 880-mile border with China is notoriously porous. Smuggling and human trafficking across this remote landscape is rampant. Today, 50,000 to 100,000 North Koreans reside illegally inside China, working for a couple of dollars a day (a fortune, by North Korean standards). In the past 10 years, the number of North Koreans who have been to China and then returned home may be as large as 500,000. These people bring with them news about the outside world. They also bring back short-wave radios, which, though illegal, are easy to conceal. It is also becoming common to modify state-produced radios that have fixed tuning to the state’s propaganda channels. With a little rejiggering, North Koreans can listen to foreign news broadcasts.

But there are few broadcasts that North Koreans can hope to intercept. It was once assumed that South Korea would do the best job broadcasting news to its northern neighbor. And that was true until the late 1990s, when, as part of its “sunshine policy,” South Korea deliberately made these broadcasts “non-provocative.” There are only three other stations that target North Korea. But their airtime is short, largely due to a shortage of funds. Radio Free Asia and Voice of America each broadcast for roughly four hours per day, and Free North Korea (FNK), a small, South Korea-based station staffed by North Korean defectors, broadcasts for just one hour per day.

Being a former Soviet citizen, I know that shortwave radios could be the most important tool for loosening Pyongyang’s grip. That was the case in the Soviet Union. In the mid-1980s, some 25 percent of Russia’s adult population listened to foreign radio broadcasts at least once a week because they were one of the only reliable sources of news about the world and, more importantly, our own society A dramatic increase in funding for broadcasts by Voice Of America is necessary.  It is also important to support the defectors’ groups that do similar broadcasting themselves. These groups are regularly silenced by South Korean authorities, and they have to do everything on a shoestring. A journalist at the FNK gets paid the equivalent of a janitor’s salary in Seoul.  Even a small amount of money- less than U.S. military forces in Seoul spend on coffee-could expand their airtime greatly. With an annual budget of just $1 million, a refugee-staffed station could be on air for four hours a day, 365 days a year.

Leverage the Refugee Community in the South: There are some 10,000 North Korean defectors living in the South, and their numbers are growing fast. Unlike in earlier times, these defectors stay in touch with their families back home using smugglers’ networks and mobile phones. However, the defectors are not a prominent lobby in South Korea. In communist-dominated Eastern Europe, large and vibrant exile communities played a major role in promoting changes back home and, after the collapse of communism, helped ensure the transformation to democracy and a market economy. That is why the United States must help increase the influence of this community by making sure that a cadre of educated and gifted defectors emerges from their ranks.

Today, younger North Korean defectors are being admitted to South Korean colleges through simplified examinations (they have no chance of passing the standard tests), but a bachelor’s degree means little in modern South Korea. Defectors cannot afford the tuition for a postgraduate degree, which is the only path to a professional career. Thus, postgraduate scholarships and internship programs will be critical to their success. Without outside help, it is unlikely that a vocal and influential group of defectors will emerge. Seoul won’t fund these programs, so it will be up to foreign governments and non-governmental organizations to do so. Fortunately, these kinds of initiatives are cheap, easy to enact, and perfectly compatible with the views of almost every U.S. politician, from right to left.

Fund, Plan, and Carry out Cultural Exchanges: The Cold War was won not by mindless pressure alone, but by a combination of pressure and engagement. The same will be true with North Korea The United States must support, both officially and unofficially, all policies that promote North Korea’s Contacts with the outside world. These policies are likely to be relatively expensive, compared to the measures above, but cheap in comparison to a military showdown with a nuclear power.

It makes sense for the U.S. government to bring North Korean students to study overseas (paid for with U.S. tax dollars), to bring their dancers or singers to perform in the West, and to invite their officials to take “study tours.” Without question, North Korean officials are wary of these kinds of exchanges with the United States. However, they will be less unwilling to allow exchanges with countries seen as neutral, such as Australia and New Zealand. In the past, Pyongyang would never have allowed such exchanges to happen. But nowadays, because most of these programs will benefit elite, well- connected North Korean families, the temptation will be too great to resist. in-other words, a official in Pyongyang might understand perfectly well that sending his son to study market economics at the Australian National University is bad for the communist system, but as long as his son will benefit, he will probably support the project.

Convince Fellow Republicans That Subtle Measures Can Work: Some Republicans, particularly in the U.S. Congress, might object to any cultural exchanges that will benefit already-privileged North Koreans. And, for many, funding Voice of America isn’t as attractive as pounding a fist in Kim’s face. But these criticisms are probably shortsighted. As a student of Soviet history, you know that mild exposure to the world outside the Soviet Union had a great impact on many Soviet party officials. And information almost always filters downstream. A similar effect can be expected in North Korea. During the Cold War, official exchange programs nurtured three trends that eventually brought down the Soviet system: disappointment among the masses, discontent among the intellectuals, and a longing for reforms among bureaucrats. Money invested in subtle measures is not another way to feed the North Korean elite indirectly; it is an investment in the gradual disintegration of a dangerous and brutal regime.

North Korea has changed, and its changes should be boldly exploited. The communist countries of the 20th century were not conquered. Their collapse came from within, as their citizens finally realized the failures of the system that had been foisted on them. The simple steps outlined here will help many North Koreans arrive at the same conclusion. It may be the only realistic way to solve the North Korean problem, while also paving the way for the eventual transformation of the country into a free society. This fight will take time, but there is no reason to wait any longer.

United Press International
Marc S. Ellenbogen
4/2/2007

The most effective way to influence the future of North Korea is through economic development and incentives. The 500 million euro North Korea Investment Fund exists to economically engage the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. While the six-party talks continue — which they should and must — Global Panel and the Prague Society will continue to grow this fund.

At the 4th Session of the North Korea Initiative in Bratislava just weeks ago, there was a consensus that growing the NKIF is a good strategy for engaging the DPRK. The NKIF will be used for entrepreneurial ventures, to provide micro loans, for knowledge transfer, healthcare and for building, energy and infrastructural projects.

The biggest task facing Pyongyang is converting one of the worlds most centrally planned and isolated economies into something remotely resembling a free market. Industrial capital stock is nearly beyond repair as a result of years of underinvestment and shortages of spare parts. Industrial and power output has declined as well. The development of former East Germany cost 1.2 trillion euros. It is calculated that the redevelopment of the DPRK will cost 5 trillion euros. Pyongyang will only allow development if it can simultaneously protect its power position.

In the 1980s companies failed to predict the collapse of the centralized Soviet system. They were wholly unprepared and certainly had few dedicated funds in place (George Soros was an exception) when the changes in Central Europe came about. The NKIF seeks to remedy this mistake by having funds in place that can be used to aid a changing North Korea at the point change takes place. The NKIF targets investors who know a return of investment is years in the future but recognize the need for such a fund.

A prerequisite for the fund’s future success is confidence-building measures. General Dieter Stockmann, the former NATO deputy commander, made comparisons to China. As the head of the bilateral German-China security talks, he noted that “we need access to human resources.” He was quick to point out that the DPRK military will play an indispensable role in the DPRK’s economic future.

Paul Beijer, Sweden’s special representative on Korean peninsula issues, noted that the Australians have experience with micro-loan projects. Others observed that Sweden, Switzerland and the European Union have separately held conferences in Pyongyang focused on economic reform. There have been both government and private — through international foundations — conferences in the DPRK.

Poverty is out of control in the DPRK. The World Food Program and the Carter Center have calculated some 50 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Even the nascent micro-markets have virtually collapsed. The gap between the wealthiest and poorest is staggering — amongst the most dramatic on earth.

Previously, there had been a period when small and middle-sized entrepreneurs had done fairly well in North Korea. Tapping into these existing entrepreneurs must be a key goal of the NKIF. The NKIF must provide educational training for this entrepreneurial class and help it grow. Training, also of those doing the training, will be a specific area to add value.

The selection process will be difficult, and nearly impossible without a physical presence in the DPRK. North Korea is a huge market for the development of a financial infrastructure and financial services. Companies interested in participating in the future can aid in these trainings and seminars, which would give them a chance to get their foot in the door.

One expert commented that the DPRK government is highly compartmentalized and that it is extremely difficult to get the different agencies to sit together. It was suggested that a conference in Pyongyang focusing on a narrow topic — modern accounting, microfinance — might be of value. Eduard Kukan, until recently the long-serving Slovak foreign minister, cautioned that Pyongyang remains very weary of outsiders and that even good intentions could very likely be seen as interference.

Any investment must be linked to certain performance benchmarks. It must be linked to practical steps and an action plan. A critical component must be systems in place to monitor outcomes. At the moment, this is virtually impossible with the DPRK. Many who criticize the concept of engagement believe monitoring to be the weakest link. They argue one cannot make sure investments are being used solely for intended civilian economic and industrial purposes.

It is difficult to engage a country that is essentially disinterested in being engaged or only interested in doing so under very strict conditions.

Even the government in Pyongyang cannot ignore basic facts. It recognizes the problems that exist but fears losing its power base. Any solution must convince the current elite that the future is good for it. This, on the other hand, is a very difficult sell to many who wish to punish the current DPRK government.

Regardless, before the NKIF is put to use, a monitoring process should be in place. And this allows time for the fund to grow and to find its niche.