North Korean Economy Watch

Discussion from the Korea Times:

“Yes” Reasons:
-Prolonging the life of the Kim Jong-il regime at the expense of its people
-The North cheats its own workers by not giving them their full pay. There are no unions in Kaesong Industrial Park and workers are expected to work unpaid overtime regularly
“No” Reasons:
-Mini-Marshall Plan
-Workers there earn $58 per month and work under excellent conditions and are much better off than North Korean workers elsewhere.

Other factoids:
Kim Dong-Keun, president of the complex’s Industrial Management Committee said “The North Korean workers are very diligent with high manual skills. Their productivity level is on average 80 percent that of their South Korean counterparts.”

A manager at Hyundai claimed, “Workers’ income at the complex is about 5-10% that of South Korean workers, which is much more than North Koreans generally earn. And they work under better conditions, too”

From the Asia Times: 

The only currency used in the complex is the US dollar.

No foreign investors have yet signed up for the zone

Washington requires high-tech products destined for North Korea that include US intellectual property to undergo stringent export controls. This has irritated many in the South – particularly after the process delayed the transfer of telecommunications equipment. It also appears highly unlikely that Kaesong-built products will be included in a free-trade agreement between Seoul and Washington that is under negotiation.

Officials of the complex say they have assisted local villagers with heating briquettes and rice, but there is otherwise neither trade nor contact across the fence, indicating that the experience of capitalism is strictly insulated. This assumption is buttressed by relations inside the complex: despite talk of inter-Korean fraternity, social contact between Northern and Southern workers is non-existent.

While the railways between the two Koreas were reconnected in early 2004, theoretically linking Seoul and Sinuiju on North Korea’s Chinese border, it is uncertain when trains will start to run through Kaesong.

“There will be talks on opening the line in July, but it is not certain,” said a South Korean official at Dorasan Station, a giant steel-and-glass edifice on the southern side of the border. The lack of rail transport complicates his firm’s logistics costs, said Stafild’s Moon, whose head office is on the south coast of the peninsula, in Busan.
 

From the Washington Times:

South Korea plans to open a job training center in the North to improve the skills of North Koreans who work in South Korean-owned companies. 

The training center, to open in June, each year will offer training in 13 areas of work to 4,000 employees of midsized companies, the state-funded Human Resources Development Service of Korea said in a statement.

“The center will conduct job training and supply a quality workforce to our companies which will move in the Kaesong Industrial Complex,” it said.

South Korea’s government has allocated $16.4 million to construct the training center in the industrial zone, The Korea Herald reported Thursday. 

Currently, 11 South Korean companies employ 6,000 North Korean workers and 600 South Korean workers in the zone, according to the Ministry of Labor.

The ministry expects that some 300 firms will eventually recruit 90,000 North Korean workers when the first-stage development of the inter-Korean complex is completed in 2007, the newspaper reported.

from Bloomberg:

North Korean workers stitching Made in Korea labels on $150 sneakers may hold the key to a $29 billion free-trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea, the biggest U.S. accord in a decade.The 6,000 North Koreans, working 48-hour weeks for 1/20th of the pay of their southern colleagues, are churning out pots, sneakers and clothes in a South Korean-funded business park just north of the demilitarized zone that separates the two Koreas.

South Korea’s government is counting on free-trade status to help lure local and overseas companies to the park near Gaeseong, an ancient capital of united Korea. The U.S. says goods made north of the DMZ won’t qualify for special treatment.

“The free-trade agreement must be expanded to include Gaeseong products,” said Kim Dong Keun, chairman of the park’s management committee, in Gaeseong. “I understand that nothing has been set in stone. The matter is still up for negotiation.”

At stake is an accord forecast to boost U.S. exports by $19 billion and lift imports from South Korea, the U.S.’s seventh- largest trading partner, by $10 billion. Talks may start as soon as this month.

The U.S. last year exported $29 billion of goods to South Korea and bought $43 billion of Korean imports, according to the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The U.S. is the country’s third-largest trading partner.

“The starting point is that an FTA applies to goods originating in the U.S. and the Republic of Korea,” Alexander Vershbow, the U.S. ambassador to South Korea, said at a seminar with economists in Seoul on Feb. 14. “How Gaeseong is treated under the free-trade agreement is going to be a complex issue.”

Europe Waives Duties

South Korean Trade Minister Kim Hyun Chong said at a Feb. 2 press conference with U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman in Washington that his government expects goods made in Gaeseong to be part of the trade deal. Portman said the agreement would only cover goods produced in South Korea.

“This is a negotiation between the United States and the Republic of Korea,” Christin Baker, Portman’s spokeswoman, said March 2. “Its provisions will apply to goods originating within the territories of the two parties.”

Singapore on March 2 implemented a free-trade agreement with South Korea that eliminated tariffs on all goods, including those from the North Korean industrial zone.

The European Free-Trade Association waives duties on Gaeseong goods if more than 60 percent of the product is sourced from South Korea.

Delayed Plans

At Gaeseong, Moon Chang Seop, president of South Korean shoemaker Samduk Stafild Co., is delaying his expansion plans until the U.S. talks end.

Moon’s company is among 15 South Korean enterprises to have opened factories in the zone since June 2003. He’s hoping to shift all of his $50 million annual production from the southern city of Busan.

“It all depends on whether the U.S. can accept products made in Gaeseong as South Korean-made,” said Moon, 55, as North Korean music played to rows of uniformed seamstresses in his factory. “If the U.S. won’t budge, I won’t be able to move our main plant.”

Seoul-based Hyundai Group, which controls the world’s largest ship-builder, began developing Gaeseong after a landmark summit in 2000 between then South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and his northern counterpart, Kim Jong Il.

The 10-hectare (25-acre) park borders Gaeseong city, the capital of Korea’s Goryeo kingdom from 918 to 1392. It’s ringed by a 2-meter-high (6.5 feet) fence and guarded by North Korean soldiers armed with pistols and semi-automatic weapons.

More than 300 trucks cross the heavily fortified demilitarized zone every day, carrying in raw materials from the South and carting off finished products. Gaeseong is an hour’s drive from both Seoul and Inchon, the nearest South Korean port, and two hours from Pyongyang.

Golf Course

The South Korean government is spending $220 million to expand the site to 330 hectares by 2007, with 24 new tenant companies already building plants.

By 2012, factories will cover 26 square kilometers (10 square miles), according to the Gaeseong committee. It plans to build a supporting urban area of 40 square kilometers, including a 36-hole golf course.

About 730,000 North Koreans, or almost 3 percent of the communist nation’s population, will be housed there by then, said Kim, the committee chairman.

South Korean companies are paying the North Korean government $57.50 a month for each worker, according to Kim. Of that, North Korea collects at least $7.50 in what it calls a social tax.

By comparison, the average monthly wage for factory workers in the South is more than $1,000, according to Hyundai.

Gaeseong isn’t the only obstacle to a trade accord that may be the biggest negotiated by the U.S. since its 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada.

Agriculture, Autos

U.S. officials also will push South Korea to cut trade barriers in agriculture, auto, pharmaceutical and services industries, according to a Feb. 9 report by the research department of the U.S Congress.

South Korea last month reduced quotas on Korean movies to allow more U.S. films to be shown in cinemas and lifted a two- year ban on U.S. beef imports, paving the way for talks to start.

It also agreed to accept some U.S. auto imports, temporarily exempting them from emission rules that are tighter than U.S. federal standards.

U.S. Trade Representative Portman and South Korean Trade Minister Kim said on Feb. 2 that both parties aim to sign an agreement by the end of this year.

At Gaeseong, Oh Sung Chang, the senior managing director of South Korean package maker Taesung Hata Co., is biding his time.

Taesung Hata, which makes cosmetics cases and casings for brands such as Stila, Bobby Brown and Shiseido, plans to quadruple its initial $14 million investment in Gaeseong in the next few years, Oh said.

“Of course, the outcome of the trade negotiations may influence our decision,” he said, as North Korean workers assembled compact-powder casings in the Taesung factory. “We await a favorable outcome.”

From the Standard (China) and LA Times:
3/2/2006

The Kaesong industrial park is only an hour from Seoul but it’s like traveling to the moon, writes Barbara Demick
It takes barely an hour to drive from downtown Seoul to the other side of the demilitarized zone, but the culture shock is such that you might as well be commuting to the moon.

Mobile phones, books, newspapers, magazines, videos, laptops, MP3 players and many other appurtenances of 21st-century life must be checked on the south side of the border.

Also best left behind are any wisecracks about the North Korean regime, or in particular its leader, Kim Jong Il.

“You’ve got to watch what you say,” said Kim Yi Gyeom, a South Korean telecommunications worker standing in a long line of Monday-morning commuters waiting to go north. “The spirit of openness has not come to North Korea yet.”

In the boldest experiment to date with inter-Korean cooperation, nearly 500 South Koreans are working side by side with more than 6,000 North Koreans in a year-old industrial park just north of the DMZ.

South Koreans are assuming all the financial risk, having invested more than US$2 billion (HK$15.6 billion).

The South would like to reduce political tensions and reap the benefit of inexpensive North Korean labor so its manufacturers can compete with China.

For the North Koreans, the Kaesong experiment is a way to build its economy with only the most limited dose of openness to the outside world. But the political risk is all for the North Korean government, which fears that contact with the better-fed, better-clothed South Koreans could endanger its grip on power.

“It is natural that there is a culture gap,” said Hwang Boo Gi, director of the Kaesong Industrial District, who led a group of foreign journalists through the park Monday.

“We are talking about the difference between capitalism and socialism.”

Or as a North Korean official, Han Cheol, said diplomatically, “We like to emphasize what we have in common, like our heritage, and not our differences.”

Nevertheless, the contrast is particularly glaring when coming from Seoul, the high-tech, neon-lit capital of the world’s 12th-largest economy, a mere 58 kilometers away. Around the industrial park, which lies outside the center of the city of Kaesong, there is little but desiccated rice paddies and yellow hills denuded long ago by people scratching for firewood. Nearby is an abandoned agricultural college, its crumbling facade decorated by a faded red sign trumpeting the achievements of the North Korean Workers’ Party. Scrawny goats graze outside two-story white- washed houses with windows made of plastic sheeting.

The industrial park itself is surrounded by 8km of perimeter fencing and poker-faced, rifle-toting North Korean soldiers.

Inside the fenced compound everything from the toilets to the machinery are South Korean-made, mostly the latest, state-of-the-art models. Although all 11 companies now operating in the 9.31-hectare pilot project are South Korean, the North Koreans keep a tight rein over the work environment. No South Korean money is accepted here, even at a Family Mart convenience store set up for the exclusive use of South Korean employees.

North Korean patriotic music in praise of Kim Jong Il blares over the loudspeakers of a futuristic warehouse where North Korean women in crisp royal blue uniforms stitch athletic shoes using brand-new sewing machines.

The monthly salaries of US$57.50 for each North Korean worker – regardless of position – are paid directly to the North Korean government, which in turn gives the workers about US$8, more than double the average monthly salary. South Korean companies have asked repeatedly to pay the workers directly and to give bonuses for better work, but have been refused.

Even New Year’s gifts such as extra food and warm clothing could be given only after elaborate negotiations to make sure everybody was getting the same.

South Koreans, many of whom live for weeks at a time in modular housing in the complex, have their own cafeteria and their own medical clinic, all off- limits to North Koreans.

Last year, stories appeared in the South Korean media about a purported Romeo-and-Juliet romance between a North Korean woman and a South Korean man. But people at Kaesong said the story was apocryphal because the North Korean women are never alone.

There have been countless cases of culture shock. When Shinwon held a fashion show in October – complete with disco music, strobe lighting and slinky models in denim mini-skirts – it offended the conservative sensibilities of some North Koreans.

For their part, some South Koreans were taken aback recently to see the North Koreans workers dancing and singing enthusiastically to an accompaniment of accordion music at a fuel- pump factory. It turned out they were rehearsing in anticipation of Kim Jong Il’s birthday on February 16.

As is often the case, many misunderstandings resulted from acts of kindness.

South Koreans have tried covertly to give medicine from their private clinic to ailing North Koreans.

One South Korean employee was accused of trying to bribe a North Korean soldier when he gave him two packages of instant ramen noodles, according to a military source.

In a more serious incident, a South Korean was caught trying to distribute Christian literature, which is strictly anathema in the communist country, the source said.

“Almost every day something happens, some small quarrel or misunderstanding. But because Kaesong is so important to Kim Jong Il, the North Koreans choose to ignore it,” said Lim Eul Chul, a scholar at South Korea’s Kyungnam University who has written extensively on Kaesong.

Both sides have ambitious plans for Kaesong. When fully completed in 2012, the enclave is supposed to encompass 64.75 square kilometers and employ 700,000 workers.

The biggest impediment to the project’s success might be North Korea’s ongoing nuclear weapons program and its hostility to the United States. The tensions have limited the nature of the products manufactured at Kaesong to low technology – with anything having potential dual use for military purposes prohibited – and mostly confined sales to the domestic market within South Korea.

Although Shinwon Apparel, for example, supplies clothing to Kmart and Wal-Mart, among others, those garments are largely produced in Vietnam. US officials, who earlier this month announced negotiations toward a free- trade pact with South Korea, have said they would not consider Kaesong products to be labeled “Made in South Korea.”

With no progress on the horizon in its long war of nerves with the United States, the North Koreans have no choice but to chum it up with South Korea. If they are merely holding their noses and tolerating the presence of the South Koreans for their money, they go to pains not to show it.

The well-disciplined North Korean cadres who were showing foreign reporters around Kaesong Monday all lavishly praised their South Korean counterparts.

You know you have arrived when you are covered by the Washingon Post:

Two Koreas Learn to Work as One: New Industrial Park Matches South’s Capital and Know-How With North’s Low-Cost Labor
By Anthony Faiola, Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, February 28, 2006; Page A10

Here are the highlights:

Layout

• Kaesong Industrial Park is two-thirds the size of Manhattan.  Only a fraction of its real estate currently developed.  15 factories already operating. One is called Shinwon Textile Factory. (Source)
• A South Korean telephone company has installed the first 340 of 10,000 planned phone lines.  Because of the communist state’s chronic shortages of electricity, the South Koreans have had to run power lines across the border to serve their factories.  The goal (starting next month) is 154000 kilowats (source).
• Some company representatives concede that the North Koreans are not always ideal business partners.
• A tall green wire fence marks the zone’s 8.6-kilometer-long boundary (Source)
• South Korea is assuming all the financial risk, having invested more than $2 billion  (source). Kim Dong-keun, president of the South Korean Committee, which co-manages the zone, says the 489 South Koreans who work in Kaesong receive special training on interacting with North Koreans.   For South Korean managers, Kaesong is considered a hardship posting.  As a result, many of them receive as much as $2,500 extra pay per month (Source). No South Korean money is accepted here, even at a Family Mart convenience store set up for the exclusive use of South Korean employees (Source).
• 50 year leases were auctioned off last summer. On Average, there were 4 South Korean companies vieing for each spot. 

Labor Relations and Statistics

• After the first busloads of North Korean workers arrived at the gates 16 months ago, weeks passed before people from the two societies could even understand each other’s dialect.  They had to explain virtually every aspect of modern life to his fresh-faced communist charges — down to how to use the factory’s Western-style toilets.
• The workers put in long hours at often grueling tasks, but life here nonetheless seems a cut above the poverty that is common in most of North Korea. 
• Although the zone currently employs about 6,000 North Koreans here, officials in Seoul project that an additional 15,000 North Koreans will start work as more than 20 South Korean companies move in. By 2012, plans call for as many as 700,000 employees — 4.5 percent of North Korea’s entire workforce.
• Thousands of workers live in on-site dorms, while others arrive by bus from Kaesong. South Koreans are not permitted beyond a bright green perimeter fence that is guarded by armed soldiers and separates the complex from nearby towns.
• North Korean workers are paid a fixed salary of $57.50 a month. That is about 20 times less than the pay of a South Korean worker of the same skill level, but it is a welcome sum in North Korea.  It is unclear how much of that money actually goes to the North Korean workers. The dollar-denominated checks issued by the South Korean companies are paid to a North Korean government agency. Na Un Suk, director general of North Korea’s Central Special Economic Zone Control Agency, said the government makes deductions for room and board provided to the employees before paying them varying amounts in North Korean currency.  The Los Angeles Times reports that workers get $8/month.  About double the average salary (Source).
• Although South Korean managers have some say in promoting workers, they have little role in choosing who arrives on their doorstep. Many employees are from Kaesong city — the ancient capital of the Goryeo kingdom that first united much of the Korean Peninsula. But all are picked by officials from the North Korean government.
• North Korean workers are forbidden from any contact with South Koreans except when necessary on the job.  They enter and leave the zone through a single checkpoint manned by North Korean soldiers. (Source)
• Managers from South Korea live in single-story temporary quarters that resemble military barracks. Typically, they go home twice a month.  “It’s very difficult,” says Kim Ki Hong, general manager of a branch of the only South Korean bank in the zone. “We cannot go outside,” says Mr. Kim. “We are almost prisoners.”(Source). Southerners also have their own cafeteria and their own medical clinic, all off limits to the North Koreans (Source). 
• In response to queries about their wages, a young North Korean woman murmurs, “I cannot say anything,” and another says only, “We get enough.”
• Everyone here has at least a high school education. Many of them are college grads. But the most convenient is the fact that they all speak Korean. It’s easier to train them,” said Ryu Nam-Ryul, a section manager at Taesung Industry
• North Korean patriotic music in praise of Kim blares over the loudspeakers.

Taxes

• Gaesong has also exempted foreign companies from corporate income taxes in the first five years, and gives a 50 percent reduction for three more years. (source)
• Independent labor unions are banned.

Production

• Taesun Hata is exporting compact casings for Clinique and eye shadow holders for Bobbi Brown from its multimillion-dollar plant.
• Southern companies make shoes, textiles, auto parts and kitchen implements
• A branch of a major South Korean bank is open for business, as is a Family Mart convenience store staffed by two North Korean women.
• Inter-korean trade surged 50% since last year, over $1 billion.

Political goals

• The Zone is also key to South Korea’s strategy for lessening what is bound to be a massive economic jolt if it reunites with the North. North Korea’s per-capita income is roughly $1,800 a year, 10 times less than the South’s.
• Officials say Kaesong is also meant to keep on course a program of market-oriented restructuring that the North is undertaking in its domestic economy.
• South Korean companies have received low-interest loans and security guarantees from the South Korean government to locate in Kaesong.
• South Korea no longer has to go to south east Asia for manufacturing.  they can undertake low-cost production in North Korea and undercut Chinese prices.(Source).  It takes only three hours to deliver the products from Gaesong to the South Korean warehouse, whereas it would take more than one week from China.(source)
• “Our workers here are not motivated by material satisfaction. We are motivated by the fact that this is a national business project. We are one nation, and this is an important part of our unification process,” Na Un-Suk, director general of the Central Special Economic Zone Control Agency.

Future plans

• South Korea’s state-run Korea Land Corp. and Hyundai Asan, the North Korea business arm of Hyundai Group, said Tuesday they plan to build a hotel at an industrial complex in the North by June next year. The two companies will invite a private enterprise to construct the hotel to resolve a shortage of accommodation at the complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.  To that end, the state land developer and Hyundai Asan will set up a joint venture to take charge of the hotel, they said. (Yonhap)
• To grow as planned, the park will have to win access to world markets. South Korea hopes that products made here will be eligible to enter the United States under any free-trade pact that may be negotiated with the United States (Source).

From the Korea Times:

Tuesday, February 7, 2006

By Hwang Si-young

KT Corp., the country’s No. 1 fixed-line telecom and broadband operator, will build a gigantic communications center at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex in North Korea by 2007, the company said yesterday.

“Many local companies are expected to set up plants in Gaeseong in a few years. To meet a growing demand for fixed-line telephone and internet services, we decided to build a large communications center, approximately 9,900 square meters in size,” said KT’s Gaeseong District Office director Joung Youn-kwang.

There are currently 11 companies based in Gaeseong Complex. They are permitted and approved by the Ministry of Unification and Korea Land Corporation to do their businesses in Gaeseong.

The size of the industrial complex currently stands at 92,400 square meters, but according to KT, it will be expanded more to around 3,300,000 square meters by 2007, housing 300 or more companies.

As of now, KT operates a small communications center using a two-story temporary building in Gaeseong.

The company is likely to build a center after the overall industrial complex expansion is completed, Joung said.

KT will soon begin negotiating with its North Korean counterpart to secure land and bring additional telecommunications equipment, the company said.

Korea Times
Kim Rahn
12/30/2005

It has been eight years since South Koreans started visiting Mt. Kumgang, a scenic attraction in North Korea on a cruise program organized by Hyundai Asan.

Hopes and doubts about the success of the trips continue, as the tour program is strongly influenced by international and local developments. And many ups and downs have occurred over the past eight years.

The number of visitors plummeted during difficult times such as when a South Korean woman visitor was detained in 1999, when former Hyundai chairman Chung Mong-hun committed suicide in 2003, and when the North cut the quota of daily visitors by 50 percent last year.

Numbers rose when the government subsidized costs for students, the disabled and dispersed families in 2002, and when an overland bus route was developed in 2003.

Despite obstacles, the number of South Korean visitors to the scenic mountain resort passed the million mark last June.

Moreover, the communist country plans to open more tourist attractions to South Korea. Kaesong, the capital of the ancient Koryo Kingdom, Mt. Paektu on the border of North Korea and China, and maybe even the North Korean capital Pyongyang are on a possible list of tourist attractions for South Korean travelers.

Kaesong

At the end of last August, 500 South Korean tourists visited Kaesong, the old capital of the Koryo Kingdom (918 A.D.-B.C.1392), for the first time since the end of Korean War in 1953 on a one-day pilot trip.

It took only about two hours from central Seoul to the North Korean city, just above the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas, by bus on an overland route including entry procedures. Its easy access is expected to be one of the attractive features for South Korean travelers.

“Kaesong has lots of attractions from the rich cultural heritage of 500-years of Koryo history,’’ Shin Hee-soo, executive director of the Korea Tourism Organization (KTO)’s inter-Korea tourism department, told The Korea Times.

The historic sites include Sonjuk Bridge, where high-ranking Koryo government official Chong Mong-ju was killed by Lee Song-gye, founder of the Choson Kingdom and the Confucian school of Songgyungwan. Parts of the school are now used as a Koryo museum.

Also located here are Kaesong Nasong, a fortress, and the royal mausoleum of King Wanggon, founder of Koryo. Natural resources such as Mt. Songak and Pakyon Falls are also popular.

“Travelers are also able to see North Koreans’ lives, as the tour buses pass Kaesong’s downtown. It will be another attraction, especially to the old people whose hometown was Kaesong,’’ Shin said.

Mt. Paektu

Last July, the KTO, Hyundai, and the North’s Asia-Pacific Peace Committee agreed to allow South Koreans to visit Mt. Paektu on the border of North Korea and China.

The KTO provided about 8,000 tons of asphalt pitch to the North to establish the tourism-based infrastructure on the mountain, including paving the runway of Samjiyon airport near the mountain.

The tour operators planned to conduct a pilot tour last year, but it was delayed until next April or May due to the dispute between the North and Hyundai over the dismissal of former Hyundai vice chairman Kim Yoon-kyu.

Last month, 15 delegates from the South inspected the repair work at Samjiyon airport.

The mountain is breathtakingly beautiful, comparable to the beauty of Mt. Kumgang. Some 20 peaks higher than 2,500 meters surround “Chonji,’’ the mountain-top crater lake.

Sunrise seen from the top, especially in August and September, is one of the must-sees of the trip to Mt. Paektu. Some 200 square meters of hot springs never freeze, even during winter.

“Mt. Paektu is more than a tourist attraction. It has a special meaning of the `spirit of Koreans.’ Many people have visited the mountain from the Chinese side, but the scene from the North’s side gives a different impression,’’ Shin said.

Pyongyang

The North Korean capital may not be opened as a separate tourist attraction but is likely to be visited if the tour program for Mt. Paektu includes Pyongyang as a stopover, a Hyundai Asan worker said.

In October last year, about 140 South Koreans visited Pyongyang on a pilot trip. The city has many historic sites from the ancient Koguryo Kingdom and Tangun, the legendary founding father of Korea.

Their visit was, however, mainly focused on Mt. Myohyang near the capital, which is famous for autumn foliage.

Shin pointed out that the reclusive regime is not likely to open its capital wide to South Koreans, adding that visits may be made in the case of big events, such as the “Arirang’’ mass games which were held last year to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party.

Obstacles to Trip to North Korea

The trip to the North has obstacles to overcome. The tours mainly target people whose homes were in North Korea or whose family members are still there.

But the numbers of such people are limited. The tours need other kinds of visitors to be successful. Besides the attraction of entering a `forbidden’ land, North Korea lacks features of interest to visitors.

A survey showed that 95 percent of the travelers to Mt. Kumgang were traveling there for the first time, indicating the small number of returning visitors. “Establishing golf courses and opening a beach at Mt. Kumgang are part of the efforts to increase repeat tourists,’’ Shin said.

Restrictions by North Korea also dampen the enjoyment of South Korean visitors, Shin pointed out. Visitors’ activities are strictly regulated, and the trips are limited to special times and places.

The trips to the North require harmony between the two governments, the people’s support, and a sense of duty as a “plus alpha’’ factor, he stressed.

Bloomberg
Bradley K. Martin
12/28/2005

A sign of North Korea’s fledgling moves toward a market economy can be found at the Pyongyang monument commemorating the 1945 founding of the Workers’ Party. Beneath a 50-meter-tall rendition of the party’s logo — a hammer, sickle and writing brush — sits a street photographer.

A handmade sign displays her price list and sample photos, mostly of groups of North Korean visitors, with the monument as background.

The photographer is one of countless sidewalk entrepreneurs – – most of them selling food and drink — who have set up shop in North Korea since 2002. Before that, they would have been hauled off to re-education camps for profiteering. In the late 1990s, North Korea’s Civil Law Dictionary described merchants as a class to be eradicated because they “buy goods from producers at a low price and sell them to consumers at a high price by way of fraud, deceit and spoils.”

Since then, the party newspaper, Rodong Shinmun, has quoted Kim Jong Il, who’s held supreme power since the 1994 death of his father, Kim Il Sung, as favoring profits under socialist economic management.

North Korea, one of the world’s last Stalinist regimes, has gradually begun permitting commerce. On a four-day visit to Pyongyang, the capital, in October — arranged and scripted by the government — a group of 17 Western journalists got a glimpse of the changes. Clean, new restaurants were packed with paying customers while the streets — almost empty in 1979 and only lightly traveled in ’89 and ’92 — bustled with bicycles, motorbikes and Japanese sedans.

Casino Pyongyang

In the state-owned Yanggakdo Hotel on an island in the Taedong River, a mostly Chinese clientele played slot machines, cards or roulette at the Casino Pyongyang. Since 1998, Macau billionaire Stanley Ho, through his Sociedade de Turismo e Diversoes de Macau SARL, has invested $30 million in the casino, whose staff is also Chinese.

Now some investors from farther afield are joining pioneering Chinese and South Koreans in plunging into a country once so isolated it was known as the Hermit Kingdom. In September, Anglo- Sino Capital Partners, a London-based fund manager, said it had formed the Chosun Development & Investment Fund, which plans to raise $50 million for investments in North Korea.

“It’s the last virgin economy,” says Colin McAskill, 65, a director of Anglo-Sino and chairman of Koryo Asia Ltd., which is investment adviser to the new fund.

Natural Resources

Besides recent changes in the economic system, a 99 percent literacy rate and a minimum wage for workers in foreign-invested ventures of only $35 a month, McAskill says, he was drawn by North Korea’s rich natural resources — including iron ore, copper, lead, zinc, molybdenum, gold, nickel, manganese, tungsten, anthracite and lignite.

The fund will concentrate on North Korean companies that have been active internationally in the past, with track records as foreign currency earners, says McAskill.

He negotiated on behalf of North Korea with foreign bank creditors in 1987, when the country was unable to repay some $900 million in balance-of-payment loans that had enabled the regime in the 1970s to purchase Western industrial technology — Swiss watch-making machinery, for example — as well as such non-capital goods as 1,000 Volvo sedans from Sweden.

Oil Potential

The country’s petroleum potential lured Dublin-based Aminex Plc and its Korea-focused subsidiary, Korex Ltd., which in August announced the signing of a nine-year production-sharing agreement to explore and develop 66,000 square kilometers (25,000 square miles) of North Korean territory. The agreement covers areas in the Yellow Sea’s West Korea Bay and in the Sea of Japan as well as onshore.

While North Korea lacks proven petroleum reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, the West Korea Bay in particular may contain hydrocarbon reserves, as it’s considered to be a geological extension of China’s oil-rich Bohai Bay.

More foreign investment may come, says Tony Michell, a Seoul- based consultant on North Korea. Michell, a 58-year-old Briton, says he has recently shepherded 20 senior managers of international companies, representing seven nationalities, to Pyongyang.

“They’re big players,” says Michell, declining to identify his clients by name or company. “They’re looking at everything, from services to manufacturing. They want to get the measure of the North Koreans and be ready if the six-party talks succeed.”

Six-Party Talks

The so-called six-party talks — between North Korea and China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. — are aimed at ending the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. In September, the six countries agreed on a statement of principles to govern further talks. It called for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, a peace treaty and economic cooperation in energy, trade and investment.

Seoul-based Hyundai Research Institute, an affiliate of the Hyundai Group, projected in September that a successful outcome to the talks would be worth as much as $55 billion to the economy in the North — and more than twice that in the South.

Optimism about the economy has boosted the prices of defaulted North Korean debt originally owed to hundreds of creditors, mostly European banks, which in the 1970s began meeting as a London-based ad hoc group to discuss restructuring options. In the 1990s, that so-called London Club turned a portion of the debt into Euroclearable certificates, securities that were denominated in Swiss francs and German marks.

The certificates are trading at about 20-21 percent of face value, up from 12 percent in 2003, according to London-based Exotix Ltd., a unit of Icap Plc, one of a few financial firms that make an over-the-counter market in them.

Excessive Optimism

The debt’s price has risen in the past on excessive optimism about the country’s future. In early 1998, the debt was trading at nearly 60 percent of face value amid rumors that North Korea would collapse imminently and be absorbed by wealthy South Korea, which would then make good on the entire outstanding debt.

That had not happened by the time of the crash later that year in global emerging-market securities, when the North Korean debt price sank to about 25 percent of face value.

Exotix estimates that North Korea owes the equivalent of some $1.6 billion in principal and interest to banks out of a total $14 billion in principal and interest owed globally to mainly communist and formerly communist countries.

Although a cease-fire was declared in 1953 in the war between North Korea and China on one side and the United Nations — under whose flag the Americans, South Koreans and others had fought — on the other side, no peace treaty has ever been signed.

The U.S. maintains sanctions under the Trading with the Enemy Act that restrict trade and financial transactions with North Korea — and apply to Americans and permanent residents of the U.S. and to branches, subsidiaries and controlled affiliates of U.S. organizations throughout the world.

China, Russia

North Korea’s flirtations with capitalism are belated compared with those of China and the former Soviet Union, which began opening their economies in the 1970s.

North Korea did pass a law legalizing foreign investment in 1984. The law, which permitted equity joint ventures between state enterprises and foreigners, attracted only $150 million in investment during the following decade, largely because investors were put off by the country’s poor roads, railroads, power systems and phone networks and by official interference in joint ventures’ recruitment, dismissal and compensation of workers, according to a 2000 thesis by Pilho Park, a postgraduate student at the University of Wisconsin Law School in Madison.

Vietnam Example

In contrast, Vietnam lured $7.5 billion in investment in the first five years after it opened its economy to foreign capital in 1988, Park wrote.

Following the collapse of European communism in the early 1990s, North Korea opened the Rajin-Sonbong Free Economic and Trade Zone on the northeastern border with China and Russia. A brief flurry of investor interest ensued and then fizzled out when a crisis over the country’s nuclear weapons program took North Korea to the brink of war with the U.S. and South Korea in 1994.

In the mid ’90s, catastrophic floods, combined with the collapse of the global communist system of aid and preferential trade, caused a severe energy shortage that crippled the economy. As much as 70 percent of manufacturing capacity went idle, according to the South Korean central bank.

Also in the mid ’90s, famine killed as many as 2.5 million North Koreans, by the estimate of the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Food Insecurity

Since then, food aid from abroad, an absence of large-scale natural catastrophes and a 2005 harvest that was the biggest in 10 years have kept North Korea from the massive starvation that’s taken place elsewhere, including Niger, says Richard Ragan, North Korea director for the United Nations World Food Program.

Still, “the country faces chronic food insecurity,” Ragan says. “One of the things that happened with the food shortages is that marginal lands became less controlled. You see people trying to farm on some of the most inhospitable plots of land you could imagine.”

In October, steep, unterraced hillsides were plowed outside Pyongyang. The crops can then wash down, rocks and all, during rainstorms, harming water supplies and damaging farmland – fertility.

A second nuclear weapons crisis boiled up in 2002 when the U.S. accused the North of conducting a secret uranium enrichment program — to replace a plutonium program that it had frozen as part of a settlement of the earlier crisis.

Economic Rules

That same year, the regime proceeded with what then Prime Minister Hong Song Nam described as dramatic new economic measures, which helped bring arbitrarily set prices and foreign exchange rates closer to those prevailing on the black market.

The North Korean won consequently dropped to 150 won to the dollar in December 2002 from 2.15 to the dollar a year earlier. The official rate is currently about 170 won, while on the black market, one dollar can bring about 2,000 won.

The government also introduced pay incentives aimed at boosting worker productivity. The system is in operation at enterprises such as the Pyongyang Embroidery Institute, where some 400 women stitch elaborate pictures for framing and sale.

Employees who don’t perform up to expectations aren’t fired; they’re denied raises, says spokeswoman Woo Kum Suk. Unable to live on their minuscule basic salary, equivalent at black market rates to something over a dollar a month, non-performers eventually quit and go elsewhere, Woo says. Good workers can see their salaries raised as much as fivefold.

Consumers

“In my opinion, it’s good to have this system,” she says. “Although the government supplies things to us, sometimes there’s something more we want to buy.”

North Korea has some way to go before many investors rush in. According to a UN report, net investment inflow for 2003 — the most recent year for which statistics are available — was a negative figure: minus $5 million.

Currently the country is constructing a new special economic zone at Kaesong, just north of the South Korean border, where several small companies from the South already employ North Koreans to make clothing, footwear and household goods. Authorities declined to let Western reporters visit it, permitting only a glimpse from a highway bridge a mile away.

Those who are investing are taking a long-term view. Singaporean entrepreneur Richard Savage was looking at least five years into the future in 2001, when he formed a joint venture tree plantation with the Ministry of Foreign Trade. The company, Evergreen Kormax Paulownia Ltd., is 30 percent-owned by the government, which has assigned Savage 20,000 hectares (49,000 acres) on a 50-year lease with an option to extend for 20 more.

Timber Business

Savage, 58, says he, family members, friends and a few other investors have put $3 million into the project so far. Savage says he hopes that by the time the paulownia trees mature — they grow as fast as 7 centimeters (2.85 inches) a day on his farm, and some may be ready for harvesting five years after planting — he’ll be able to sell the wood in a unified Korean market.

When the Northern economy takes off, the first beneficiary will be the building industry, he says. “That’s why I’m in timber,” he says, adding that his fallback plan is to sell the wood to China, Japan and South Korea.

It’s not the first venture in North Korea for Savage, who wears a cowboy hat and whose e-mail moniker is WildRichSavage. In 1994, he introduced North Korean officials to Loxley Pcl, a Thai telecommunications company. In 1995, an affiliate formed for the purpose, Loxley Pacific Co., signed a joint venture agreement with North Korea’s post and telecommunications ministry to create modern telecommunications in the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone. The venture earns about $1 million a year, Loxley Pacific Chief Financial Officer C.C. Kuei, 56, says.

Mining for Gold

North Korea’s 1992 Foreign Investment Law guaranteed that foreign investors’ shares of profits could be repatriated, a promise that’s now being tested by Kumsan Joint Venture Co., a gold mining concern that’s half owned by a Singapore-led group of Asian investors and half owned by Hungsong Economic Group, a large trading, mining and manufacturing group in Pyongyang that’s controlled by North Korea’s military.

Roger Barrett, a Beijing-based British consultant, has helped arrange financing and technology for Kumsan. Barrett, 50, introduced Kumsan to the foreign investors, whom he declined to identify.

The company used its investment to buy secondhand mining equipment from Australia in 2004 for the venture’s mine 2,000 meters (6,562 feet) above sea level near the city of Hamhung. In the first year the new equipment was used, Barrett says, the mine produced about 100 kilograms (220 pounds) of gold, half of which the foreign investors took out of the country. He says doing business with North Koreans has proved to be absolutely normal. “It’s working very well,” he says.

Foreign-Run Bank

The business environment in North Korea is surprisingly welcoming, says Nigel Cowie, 43, a former HSBC Holdings Plc banker who was hired a decade ago by Peregrine Investment Holdings Ltd. to start North Korea’s only foreign-run bank.

When Peregrine collapsed in 1998, Cowie and the North Korean joint venture partner kept the local unit operating. He and three other investors bought Peregrine’s 70 percent stake in it from the firm’s liquidators in 2000. Cowie, who’s general manager of what’s now called Daedong Credit Bank, says the bank has about $10 million in assets and has only foreigners as customers, mostly Chinese, Japanese and Western individuals and institutions. Only North Korean-owned banks can do business with state enterprises and North Korean individuals.

Better Living Conditions

Living conditions for expatriates have improved significantly in the past three or four years, Cowie says over a meal of Korean barbecue in the capital’s Koryo Hotel. “For me, personally, it’s things like creature comforts, more shops, Internet, e-mail,” he says. While the Internet is available to foreigners, it is forbidden to most North Koreans.

Cowie says his biggest challenge at the bank comes from outside North Korea. In September, the U.S. Treasury Department barred U.S. financial institutions from dealing with a Macau bank, Banco Delta Asia, that it said had been “a willing pawn” in corrupt North Korean activities and represented a risk for money laundering and other financial crimes.

The bank and North Korea both denied the charges, but the Macau government took over the bank and announced it would provide no services to North Korea in the future. Cowie says the action tied up a big chunk of Daedong Credit Bank’s customers’ assets because Banco Delta Asia had been a main correspondent bank for North Korean banks.

The Treasury Department in October broadened its dragnet by ordering a freeze of the assets, wherever in the world the U.S. could assert its jurisdiction, of eight North Korean companies it suspected of involvement in proliferating weapons of mass destruction.

`WMD Trafficking’

The department explained its action in an Oct. 21 statement on its Web site: “The designations announced today are part of the ongoing interagency effort by the United States Government to combat WMD trafficking by blocking the property of entities and individuals that engage in proliferation activities and their support networks.”

North Korea sought to connect the Treasury actions to Washington’s position in the six-party talks. The country’s Korean Central News Agency, using the acronym for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, said on Dec. 2 that “lifting the financial sanctions against the DPRK is essential for creating an atmosphere for implementing the joint statement and a prerequisite to the progress of the six-party talks.”

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, the chief U.S. envoy to the talks, had said in a Nov. 11 press conference that the asset freeze wasn’t directly related to the talks.

Money Laundering Banned

Cowie says he doubts the U.S. action was intended to harm Daedong, which had already issued a manual prohibiting money laundering. He says he fears such U.S. actions could damp investor enthusiasm for North Korea. “It can cause the people doing legitimate business to just give up,” he says.

Cowie isn’t packing up to leave, though. Neither is Felix Abt, a Swiss native who heads a new European Business Association in Pyongyang. “I am very busy with visiting foreign business delegations,” Abt, 50, says. “Take it as a sign that the economy is developing and that more foreign business activities are under way.”

Outsiders’ investment on capitalism’s farthest frontier is gradually bringing benefits to North Koreans, too, says Savage, the tree farmer. “I can’t convert the whole country, but for the people who work for me, I’m giving them a better standard of living,” he says. “Slowly, people will prefer not to work for the government.”

If Savage and his fellow pioneers have their way, it’s only a matter of time before capitalism takes root in North Korea.

Perils of Investing in N. Korea Become Clear to a Pioneer
By Anthony Faiola and Joohee Cho
Washington Post

Hyundai Group pioneered South Korean economic development in North Korea, building hotels and restaurants and sending busloads of tourists across the DMZ. At the time, company officials argued that they were giving their communist northern kin a lesson in capitalism.

Now Hyundai is attempting to resolve a dispute with the North Korean government that has jeopardized more than $1 billion worth of investments. The dispute began in August after Hyundai Asan Corp., the subsidiary in charge of North Korean tourism operations, fired a top executive for allegedly misappropriating more than $1 million in company and South Korean government funds.  The dismissal was considered a heavy offense in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, because the executive in question had been granted several rare meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. Top Communist Party officials last month abruptly announced a review of all concession rights purchased by the company while secretly courting one of Hyundai’s rivals, South Korea’s Lotte Group, to take over Hyundai’s North Korean operations. Lotte officials, concerned about North Korean business practices, decided they did not want to take over Hyundai’s business.

The dismissal was considered a heavy offense in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, because the executive in question had been granted several rare meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. Top Communist Party officials last month abruptly announced a review of all concession rights purchased by the company while secretly courting one of Hyundai’s rivals, South Korea’s Lotte Group, to take over Hyundai’s North Korean operations. Lotte officials, concerned about North Korean business practices, decided they did not want to take over Hyundai’s business.

The actions by North Korea raised serious questions about the wisdom of investing there. Despite the dispute, however, the governments of both South and North Korea are lobbying foreign companies to move into a jointly developed industrial park opened earlier this year in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, where more than 20 South Korean firms employ 8,000 North Koreans. The governments describe the industrial park as an experiment with market reforms. The countries also held a joint trade fair at the economic summit of world leaders last week in the southern city of Pusan.

But since South Korea opened up friendly relations with the North in the late 1990s, more than 1,000 South Korean firms have gone bankrupt or lost significant investments in North Korea, according to South Korea’s Unification Ministry.

Most were small, low-tech enterprises involved in textile-making and rudimentary housewares. But the problems at Hyundai have shown that the fortunes of even the largest investors are linked to the whims of the North’s government.

If you visit Kumgang:
The resort has lost millions of dollars and was constantly hampered by North Korean activities. In 1999, for instance, North Korean agents arrested a vacationing South Korean woman after she suggested that the capitalist South — the 11th-largest economy in the world — enjoyed a higher standard of living than the impoverished North.