Archive for the ‘Economic reform’ Category

DPRK tourism revenue estimates

Sunday, November 1st, 2015

According to Yonhap:

North Korea earned tens of millions of dollars from foreign tourists in 2014, around half of the hard currency it won from the lucrative inter-Korean industrial park, a researcher said Sunday.

North Korea’s income from foreign tourists is estimated at US$30.6 million to $43.6 million last year, considering about 95,000 Chinese tourists and 5,000 tourists from Western countries visited the country, Yoon In-ju of the Korea Maritime Institute said in a paper.

North Korea’s annual income from the Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North’s border town of Kaesong, accommodating 124 South Korean firms that employ more than 50,000 North Korean workers, reached $86 million in 2014.

North Korea has launched a drive to woo foreign tourists since leader Kim Jong-un assumed power in 2011 by introducing a variety of tour packages that give participants sports, military and labor experiences.

North Korea, however, lacks enough infrastructure, such as transportation and lodgings, to attract foreign tourists, Yoon said, adding the North’s policy of allowing only group tours and limiting tourist destinations also serve as obstacles to foreigners investing in infrastructure, as well as tourists.

I have not read the report, and have been unable to find a copy in English, but I want to highlight that there is a difference in the kind of revenue that is earn from tourism versus from the KIC.

The KIC earns $US in cash, which are delivered from the South Koreans to the North Korean government. Because South Koreans cover all the expenses in the KIC, the DPRK government’s gross take effectively equals net take (100% of proceeds). However with tourism, gross take  is not what the government actually receives. Tour operators take a cut, KITC takes a cut, guides take a cut, restaurants and hotels take a cut. Local governments take a cut. Of course how the average tourist dollar is divided up remains a mystery, but it is not anywhere near the government’s 100% share that the KIC draws.

This distinction may have been addressed in the paper, but the Yonhap report did not make that clear.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s income from tourism half of that from Kaesong complex
Yonhap
2015-11-1

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The (Market) Forces of History in North Korea

Friday, October 30th, 2015

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

The market is a common topic for debate in history. How did it impact the rise of the anti-slavery movement in the US and the UK? What impact did economic conditions have in the French Revolution? These questions are, and should be, asked in the current debate about North Korea’s socioeconomic development as well.

But despite the hope of many, the market might not simply be a story of growing individualism and disconnect from the power of the state. While such a trend may well be at work, it could also be the other way around.

This was recently illuminated through an interesting story by Reuters. In a visit to Pyongyang, they took a look at how markets and everyday business transaction function in North Korea at the moment. As they note, it is telling that a reporter from an international news agency can make transactions in the open, with a government minder by his side, at the black market rate. Business that previously had to be done in the shadows now happens in the open:

Shoppers openly slapped down large stacks of U.S. dollars at the cashier’s counter. They received change in dollars, Chinese yuan or North Korean won – at the black market rate. The same was true elsewhere in the capital: taxi drivers offered change for fares at black market rates, as did other shops and street stalls that Reuters visited.

The most obvious conclusion is that the state is adapting itself to the bottom-up development of the market. Indeed, this is the way the story is often told. In this narrative, the government is only reacting to developments and has long lost the economic policy initiative.

But one could also see a government that is confident enough to relax the rules. It just isn’t a certain fact that the state and the market are two opposing entities.

First, connections to the state still seem to be good for those wanting to trade on the market. For example, according to the surveys conducted by Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland that laid the foundation for Witness to Transformation (2011)party membership is still considered one of the best ways to get ahead in North Korea (or at least it was at the time when the surveys were conducted). A somewhat similar trend can be discerned in survey results presented by Byung-Yeon Kim of Seoul National University at a conference at Johns Hopkins SAIS in late September this year. Kim’s results also indicate that there is a strong positive correlation between party membership and participation in both the formal and informal economy.

Second, the government is making money off of the market. DailyNK recently reported that the fees charged by state authorities for market stalls was raised. They also noted that regulations of the markets seemed to have gotten more detailed over the years. As noted in this report published by the U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, the space that the government allocates to markets has consistently increased in the past few years. Not only have official markets grown, many of them have also been renovated and given better building structures.

All in all, this paints a picture of a government that controls markets while allowing them more space to function. It is not clear that formerly black market activity happening in the open means that the market is gaining ground at the expense of the state. They may well be moving together. That is good news for those hoping for stability, but bad news for those banking on a market-induced revolution. Despite the hope of many that the market will cause the demise of the regime, the role of the market force in North Korea’s history is far from clear.

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On recent economic developments in the DPRK

Thursday, October 29th, 2015

James Pearson writes in Reuters:

When North Korea’s late “Dear Leader” Kim Jong Il opened the Pothonggang Department Store in December 2010, he called on it to play “a big role” in improving living standards in the capital Pyongyang, official media said.

Five years later, judging by the long lines inside the three-storey store that sells everything from electronic gadgets and cosmetics, to food and household goods, the Pothonggang is meeting Kim’s expectations – at least for privileged Pyongyang residents.

But the department store also starkly illustrates the extent to which the underground market has become the new normal in isolated North Korea. And that poses a dilemma to the Kim family’s hereditary dictatorship, which up until now has kept tight control of a Soviet-style command economy, largely synonymous with rationing and material deprivation. Now that the black market has become the new normal, Kim Jong Un’s government has little choice but to continue its fledgling efforts at economic reforms that reflect market realities on the ground or risk losing its grip on power, experts say.

A Reuters reporter, allowed to roam the store with a government minder for a look at the North Korean consumer in action, noted almost all the price tags were in dollars as well as won. A Sharp TV was priced at 11.26 million won or $1,340; a water pump at 2.52 million won ($300). Beef was 76,000 won ($8.60) a kilogramme. North Korean-made LED light bulbs sold for 42,000 won ($5). The exchange rate used in these prices – 8,400 won to the dollar – is 80 times higher than the official rate of 105 won to the dollar. At the official rate, the TV would cost over $100,000; the light bulb, $400.

Shoppers openly slapped down large stacks of U.S. dollars at the cashier’s counter. They received change in dollars, Chinese yuan or North Korean won – at the black market rate. The same was true elsewhere in the capital: taxi drivers offered change for fares at black market rates, as did other shops and street stalls that Reuters visited.

For the last twenty years, North Korea has been undergoing economic changes, the fruits of which are now more visible than ever in the capital, Pyongyang, where large North Korean companies now produce a diverse range of domestically made goods to cater to this growing market of consumers. People are spending money they once hid in their homes on mobile phones, electric bicycles and baby carriers.

The latest sign that the workers’ paradise is going capitalist: cash cards from commercial banks.

GREW OUT OF FAMINE

Four months before Kim opened the Pothonggang Department Store, the United States imposed sanctions on North Korea, including its imports of luxury goods, for torpedoing a South Korean ship – a conclusion Pyongyang rejected. Since then, the U.N. has imposed more sanctions on North Korea for violating restrictions on its nuclear and missile programmes.

None of that has had much effect on the vast majority of North Koreans living in the countryside, where a rudimentary market has evolved considerably over the past two decades. Agricultural mismanagement, floods and the collapse of the Soviet Union led to famine in the mid-1990s. The state rationing system crumbled, forcing millions of North Koreans to make whatever they could to sell or barter informally for survival.

The regime penalised this new class of entrepreneurs in 2009 when it redenominated the won by lopping off two zeros and setting limits on the quantity of old won that could be exchanged for the new currency. That move ended up destroying much of the private wealth earned on the market.

Demand for hard currency surged after the bungled currency reform as more and more merchants in the underground markets required transactions to be conducted in foreign currency. It triggered two years of hyperinflation.

But the government of Kim Jong Un, who became North Korea’s leader after his father’s death in December 2011, has essentially accepted the ubiquity of the black market rate and a widespread illicit economy, North Korea experts say.

“Under Kim Jong Un, not a single policy has been implemented which would somehow damage the interests and efficiency of private businesses,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul.

“It’s a good time to be rich in North Korea”.

THE NEW CONSUMER

Many of the goods inside the Pothonggang Department Store, a grey building nestled between willow trees and a river of the same name, are still beyond the reach of many North Koreans.

An air conditioning unit sells for 3.78 million won ($450 dollars) – which if paid in won would require a bag of 756 five thousand won notes, the highest denomination note in won.

A growing middle class called “donju”, meaning “masters of money”, who made cash in the unofficial economy are starting to spend it on these new products, along with the long established elite of Humvee-owning individuals with powerful political connections.

Only recently an elite item, mobile phones are now common in the capital, with nationwide subscriber numbers topping three million, an employee with Koryolink, the cellular carrier controlled by Egypt’s Orascom Telecom told Reuters.

The number has tripled since 2012 and indicates one in eight of North Korea’s 24 million people now have a mobile phone.

Energy-saving products are a fast-growing sector of North Korea’s new consumer market and were one of the hottest items in the department store.

Domestically produced LED bulbs are ubiquitous in North Korea, where satellite images have shown a country almost completely black at night. The 9-watt bulb costs $5 and is a best-seller at the Pothonggang store, said a staff member. The energy-saving bulbs are used inside homes and on street lamps that now bask the formerly darkened streets of the Pyongyang night in a dull, faint glow.

Solar panels with USB-enabled inverters and batteries are available in the store alongside water pumps and small generators – exactly the kind of systems North Koreans now use to take power into their own hands.

CASH CARDS

Baby products are another booming consumer item. A large section of the department store is devoted to strollers and baby carriers produced in China and South Korea.

Many residents of Pyongyang can be seen riding Chinese-made battery powered bicycles, which only began to appear in the capital over the last year, locals said.

Some of these transactions are done with the Narae Card, a cash card run by North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank – a designated entity under U.S. sanctions since 2013 for the part it reportedly played in nuclear weapons procurement.

Cash cards have been in the hands of the few for the last several years but have recently become a new growth industry. Narae cards are topped up with U.S. dollars and are mainly used for foreign currency purchases. They can also be used to top up mobile phone accounts.

Foreign investors can also set up banks in North Korea and are allowed to lend money and provide credit-based financing schemes to North Korean companies, according to a bilingual book of North Korean law available to foreign investors.

Ryugyong Commercial Bank, for instance, offers shopping discounts as well as gold or silver card options for its customers. As with the Narae card, customers are encouraged to top up their accounts with dollars.

LOSING FACE?

After a $4 dollar taxi ride, the driver reluctantly handed the change from a twenty dollar note to a Reuters correspondent who insisted on getting change in North Korean won.

Foreigners are not officially permitted to use the currency, so the openness of the transaction – in the presence of a government guide – was another sign of the black market turning white in north Korea. The driver’s reluctance to hand over won was because of its inconvenience, not because he was afraid of being caught.

“It’s a lot of notes in our money,” he grumbled, counting out 130,000 won from a large crumpled bundle of discoloured 5000 won notes.

That note, still the highest denomination, once carried a smiling portrait of founding president Kim Il Sung but is being gradually phased out by a version with no portrait – an indication a larger denomination note may one day replace it to accommodate the widespread use of black market pricing.

That would also get around the embarrassing problem that the faces of American and Chinese leaders, not the Kims, adorn much of the cash used in the country now. For a regime that has cultivated a personality cult around the Kim dynasty, it is quite literally losing face on its own money.

MATTER OF TIME

Where there’s commercial enterprise, advertising is sure to follow. Sprinkled in among the roadside signs and billboards, once the exclusive domain for propaganda, are small notices that tout car repair services, electronics and trading companies

One prominent company, Naegohyang [Naekohyang/내고향] (my homeland) advertises at football games and has a women’s football team by the same name. It produces everything from clothes and sanitary pads to 7.27 brand cigarettes, a favourite of Kim Jong Un’s who can be seen smoking them on state TV. They also make ‘Achim’ cigarettes for export to Iran with printed health warnings written in Farsi.

At a speech following a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the ruling Workers Party, Kim Jong Un promised to introduce “people-first” politics. It remains unclear, however, how committed he and his Workers Party – not to mention the powerful military – are to market-based reforms.

But it’s only a matter of time before the Kim regime formally adopts a market-based economy – as China did 35 years ago under Deng Xiaoping, said Kookmin University’s Lankov, who lived in Pyonyang in the 1980s.

“That’ll be a great day, but it’ll be relatively meaningless in one regard,” he said. “It’ll be a formal recognition of something which has happened anyway”.

Read the full story here:
North Korea’s black market becoming the new normal
James Pearson
Reuters
2015-10-29

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Kaesong Complex’s cumulative output reaches USD$3 billion

Monday, October 12th, 2015

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)

The Kaesong Industrial Complex has reached 3 billion USD (3.5 trillion won) in cumulative output since it started operation 11 years ago. According to the Ministry of Unification, between 2005 (when operation went into full swing) and July 2015, the complex’s total output reached 2,996,160 USD.

This year the Kaesong complex recorded a total of 320 million USD in output through July, an average of 46 million USD each month. This guarantees that cumulative production surpassed 3 billion USD sometime in August.

The annual output of the Kaesong Industrial Complex started at 14.9 million USD in 2005 and reached 180 million USD in 2007, exceeding 100 million USD for the first time.

Except for 2013 (when operations were suspended for about five months), output has grown rapidly each year since 2007, shooting up to 470 million USD last year.

While it took the complex five years to reach 1 billion USD in cumulative output, it took only three additional years to surpass 2 billion USD by 2013, and just two more years to exceed 3 billion USD.

If the complex can maintain a similar rate of output in the second half of this year as in the first half (it produced 278 million dollars-worth in the first half), this year it will surpass an annual output of 500 million USD for the first time.

Even between March and May of this year, when tensions were heightened due to North Korea’s demands for a unilateral minimum wage increase, production was up 10-20 percent over the previous year. Thus, the Kaesong Industrial Complex has maintained a stable growth rate.

The number of resident companies at the complex has also increased significantly. While in 2005 only 18 companies did business at the complex, currently there are 124. Furthermore, the number of North Korean workers at the complex has risen nine-fold, from 6,000 at the beginning of its operation to approximately 54,000 at present.

Looking at the Kaesong complex companies by industry, textile companies account for over half of companies at 58 percent; machinery metal companies account for 19 percent; electronics companies, 11 percent; and chemicals companies, 7 percent.

The cumulative number of people who have visited the Kaesong Industrial Complex reached 1,100,000 this August, while 723,000 vehicles have visited the complex.

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Kyongwon Economic Development Zone

Thursday, October 8th, 2015

KCNA has announced a new Economic Development Zone:

Kyongwon Economic Development Zone to Be Set Up in DPRK

Pyongyang, October 8, 2015 18:24 KST (KCNA) — The DPRK decided to set up the Kyongwon Economic Development Zone in some areas of Ryudasom-ri, Kyongwon County, North Hamgyong Province.

The sovereignty of the DPRK is exercised over the zone.

A relevant decree of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly was promulgated on Oct. 8.

According to the Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES):

Establishment of New Economic Development Zone in North Hamgyong

North Korea revealed on October 8, 2015 that it will establish the Kyongwon Economic Development Zone in North Hamgyong Province. “An economic development zone will be formed in part of Ryudarisom-ri in Hamgyong Province’s Kyongwon County,” North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced.

According to the KCNA, the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly released the ordinance establishing the Kyongwon Economic Development Zone on October 8. It did not however, disclose any specific details, stating only that “the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea exercises its sovereignty.”

Currently there are 16 locations in North Korea that have been designated as regional economic development zones (EDZs): the Chongjin EDZ, Hyesan EDZ, Manpo EDZ, Amnok River EDZ, Wiwon EDZ, Hungnam Industrial Development Zone, Chongnam Industrial Development Zone, Hyondong Industrial Development Zone, Sukchon Agricultural Development Zone, Pukchong Agricultural Development Zone, Orang Agricultural Development Zone, Chongsu Tourist Development Zone, Onsong Island Tourist Development Zone, Sinpyong Tourist Development Zone, Songnim Export Processing Zone, and the Wau Island Export Processing Zone.

There are also seven central-level EDZs: the Rason Special Economic Zone, Wonsan-Kumgangsan Tourist Region, Kaesong Industrial Region, Sinuiju International Economic Zone, Kangryong International Green Model Zone, Onjong High Tech Development Zone, and the Mubong International Special Tourist Zone.

At an EDZ investment briefing session held in Pyongyang on September 21, 2015, Korea Economic Development Association’s general secretary Kim Chon Il explained, “We have made it so that each province can directly manage and develop their local development zones, meeting the demands of the socialist economic management principles of guaranteeing centralized economic management principles and the identity of each region.”

He added, “As we ensure practical economic benefits matching the development principles of economic development zones to the natural geographical conditions of the relevant region, we are starting under a comprehensive plan on a small scale and are achieving results. Going forward we will gradually expand.”

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Naenara reports on Wonsan SEZs

Wednesday, October 7th, 2015

Naenara carried an interview with Choe Yong Dok, Director of the Economic Zone Development of Kangwon Provincial People’s Committee.

In the interview, Director Choe commented on the Wonsan-Mt. Kumgang International Tourist Zone and the Hyondong Industrial Development Zone.

I tried copying the text here, but was not successful. Here is the PDF.

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Stall fees raised for market vendors

Wednesday, October 7th, 2015

According to the Daily NK:

Daily NK has learned that the fees vendors pay for the right to sell goods varies depending on their goods and is now applicable to stall and street merchants alike. Home appliances and industrial items carry the most expensive stall fee, according to inside sources. This is because these products tend to be large, they sell for a high price, and they have good profit margins.

In a telephone conversation with the Daily NK on the 6th, a source in Yanggang Province said, “The stall fees for market traders are either 1500 KPW [0.18 USD], 1000 KPW [0.12 USD], or 500 KPW [0.06 USD] according to the size and type of product. The fees for sellers on the street are based solely on the type of product, since size is less of a factor for those outside the market.”

Daily NK crosschecked this news with an additional source in the same province and a separate source in South Pyongan Province.

She explained that the small stalls are approximately 1.5 meters wide and are mainly used by food and fish vendors. Medium-sized booths [1000 KPW] are good for sellers of rice, cigarettes, and other household goods while the largest booths are 2.5 meters wide and home to the appliance and industrial goods sellers; these set a given merchant back 1500 KPW.

“As the number of stalls in the marketplace has increased, so have the profits for the authorities, who collect on the fees. In the past, the stall fees were uniform for all sellers, but now the regime has found a way to make more money by customizing the pricing model according to the stall size and the product’s profit margin.”

“Just a few years ago, there was very little regulation of the market. In this lax environment, we saw large increases in the number of market vendors and street sellers. Sellers could move about freely between areas and markets to try to get the best price. Now things are much stricter. To sell X, you first have to pay the fee to sell X.”

“Additionally, both market sellers and street merchants have to pay a fee now. In the past, the fee was exclusively for sellers in the marketplace, but now everyone has to fork over the cash in order to get a badge or label authorizing them to sell that day. Inside the marketplace, the market managers make the rounds at least once a day to make sure everyone is abiding the rules,” she said.

“Now they also make rounds outside of the market at least twice a day to make sure all those merchants are paying for the right to sell. The fees for street merchants are 500 KPW for vegetables and 1000 KPW for light goods. The market managers aggressively police the area to ensure that everyone has the appropriate credentials.”

According to the source, the market traders are only checked once a day because it is easier to track them down and verify that they’ve paid the stall fees. Outside traders go all over the place to sell their goods, which is why the market managers go out twice a day to check on them.

Read the full story here:
Stall fees raised for market vendors
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
2015-10-7

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Growth and Geography of Markets in North Korea

Tuesday, October 6th, 2015

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Some shameless self-promotion: the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins SAIS released a report yesterday where I (with the help of Curtis and others) study how North Korea’s formalized markets have grown over time, and how they are distributed geographically using satellite imagery from Google Earth. The report is available here. These are the main findings:

  • With a few exceptions, formalized markets have grown in North Korea over the past few years. In some cities, they have more than doubled, while other cities have seen only nominal or no changes. Only Pyongsong, the capital of South Pyong’an Province, has seen a significant decline in aggregate market space.
  • There exists only a weak correlation between population size and aggregate market space. The correlation between aggregate market space per capita and proximity to Pyongyang, a large driver for demand in the North Korean economy, is also relatively weak. 

The largest aggregate market space per capita can be found in cities in the southwestern part of the country. This suggests that trade on formal markets may be driven by other factors than those commonly assumed, such as sea route trade and agriculture.

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Kaesong output reaches US$3 billion

Monday, October 5th, 2015

According to the JoongAng Ilbo:

The Kaesong Industrial Complex’s accumulated production value is expected to have hit the $3 billion mark, more than a decade after its launch, according to government data.

As of the end of July, accumulated manufactured goods were valued at $2.99 billion, with average monthly production output hovering at around $46 million.

Accumulated production value was thought to have surpassed $3 billion sometime after July.

 

…The volume of manufactured goods at the Kaesong Industrial Complex has increased annually since its opening, except for in 2013, when it was temporarily shut down for five months amid tensions on the peninsula. In 2008, the complex surpassed the $200 million mark in production and continued to expand yearly production levels to reach $469 million in 2012.

Due to the temporary shutdown, the complex saw its annual production drop down to $223 million in 2013, though it bounced back to $469 million the following year.

The number of North Korean workers employed by South Korean firms has gone up, from 7,621 in 2005 to 53,947 in 2014, according to data by the Ministry of Unification.

Here is coverage in Yonhap.

Read the full story here:
Kaesong’s accumulated output at $3B
JoongAng Ilbo
Kang Jin-Kyu
2015-10-5

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2015 Pyongyang Autumn International Trade Fair

Monday, September 28th, 2015

UPDATE 1 (2015-9-30): Aram Pan (DPRK 360) has posted a comprehensive video of the trade fair for those of us unable to make it.

ORIGINAL POST (2015-9-28): According to Yonhap:

A Chinese envoy has urged more Chinese companies to make inroads into the North Korean market, while calling for deepening economic and trade ties with North Korea.

Li Jinjun, China’s ambassador to North Korea, made the remarks on Thursday as he visited an annual trade fair in Pyongyang, in which about 110 Chinese firms took part, according to the Chinese Embassy in the North on Monday.

Li urged the Chinese companies to “better understand and enter into the North Korean market.”

The Chinese ambassador also “encouraged them to develop friendly relations between China and North Korea and deepen bilateral economic and trade cooperation.”

Political relations between North Korea and China remain strained over the North’s defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles, but China is the North’s economic lifeline.

About 300 companies from 10 nations, including China, Germany, Singapore and Vietnam, joined the 11th Pyongyang Autumn International Trade Fair, which was held last week, according to the Chinese Embassy.

Read the full story here:
Chinese ambassador calls for deepening economic ties with N. Korea
Yonhap
2015-9-28

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