North Korean Economy Watch

Yonhap
Kim Hyun
3/28/2007

South Korea’s major opposition Grand National Party showed flexibility Wednesday in dealing with the United States over an inter-Korean industrial park in North Korea as negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) go down to the wire.

The Kaesong industrial complex is one of the sensitive issues dividing Seoul and Washington in their final negotiations, which end Friday. Seoul wants to have goods produced in the joint industrial complex treated as South Korean-made products, but Washington is against it.

The pro-government Uri Party has been prioritizing the country of origin issue in the talks, while its conservative rival, the Grand National Party (GNP) says the dispute over the Kaesong project “is not a big problem.”

The made-in-Kaesong label will make its way abroad when North Korea earns its international credit, and should not be treated as crucially as the issues of rice or beef in the negotiations, the GNP said.

“When inter-Korean relations get on a normal track, it will naturally become much easier (for the South) to operate the Kaesong industrial complex,” Rep. Yun Kun-young, the leader of the party’s special committee on the free trade talks, told reporters.

In a tougher stance, the pro-government Uri Party has put the inter-Korean project as the No. 1 item on its must-have list. In a letter to the main U.S. representative in the talks, Susan Schwab, on Tuesday, the liberal party asked Washington to accept the Kaesong complex in the deal, along with other key demands, such as the exclusion of rice.

“We stress that ratification of the Korea-U.S. FTA in the National Assembly will be determined by the manner that the above demands are integrated into the agreement,” the party said in the letter.

The Kaesong complex, just a few kilometers north of the inter-Korean border, is one of two flagship projects the South operates in the spirit of reconciliation with the North following their historic summit in 2000. Over 11,000 North Korean workers are employed by dozens of South Korean companies producing garments, utensils and other labor-intensive goods. Another reconciliation project is the operation of tours to the North’s scenic Mount Geumgang.

South Korean companies operating in Kaesong say the inclusion of the goods in the FTA is crucial, as this will open the doors for their exports to the world’s largest market and will also affect future trade deals with other countries.

The Assembly is expected to vote on ratifying the deal in August or September if it is signed as scheduled this week. Currently, a majority of lawmakers support the proposed deal.

Sources say the South Korean government has agreed with the U.S. to include the Kaesong complex in a “built-in agenda” in the deal, allowing both sides to hold further negotiations on the issue after reaching a deal.

The issues that the two biggest parties agree are not open to negotiation in the FTA deal are the exclusion of rice, the immediate and complete lifting of tariffs on South Korea’s key exports, such as cars, and the assurance of customers’ rights in medicine and sanitary areas.

Aside from the main parties, however, dissenters and members of minor parties are protesting the FTA. A group of liberal lawmakers, including some presidential hopefuls, have gone on a hunger strike against the deal.

“I cannot possibly sit by idly watching the government unilaterally push for the negotiations and ignore the national interest,” said Rep. Kim Geun-tae, a former health minister and a presidential contender from the pro-government Uri Party, launching his hunger strike at the parliament on Tuesday.

Moon Sung-hyun, chairman of the progressive Democratic Labor Party, continued a hunger strike Wednesday in front of the presidential office that has entered its 21st day.

Daily NK
Yang Jung A
3/28/2007

The World Food Programme (WFP) revealed that North Korea had for the first time admitted that they were lacking a million ton of food.

Recently, Tony Banbury, WFP Asia Director spent 3 days on location with officials from the North Korean Agriculture Ministry and Foreign Ministry where the food situation was discussed.

On the 26th, Banbury told Reuters, “This is a very significant development that they themselves are confirming they have a gap of 1mn tones.”

Director Banbury informed that the WFP and other sources had provided for North Korea’s food variance which equated to about 20% of the nations needs, however that these sources had already been wasted.

Disputably, these figures made by Mr. Banbury do not correspond to the figures on North Korea’s crop yields. Some even criticize that it was inappropriate of the WFP to directly quote comments made by North Korean officials.

According to a source by the DailyNK, the cost of rice has remained at 800~900 won(US$0.25~0.29). Especially with the forthcoming cyclic hardships of spring harvest, these figures suggest that market costs are actually stabilizing.

Since the breakdown of the distribution system, many North Koreans have resorted to purchasing rice at the markets. In North Korea, the cost of rice is a good representation of market conditions, and considering that rice prices are showing constancy is evidence that there have not been drastic setbacks as a result of the rice distributions.

In comparison to last year where flooding made the food crisis chronic in various districts throughout North Korea, the situation hasn’t really deteriorated. Rather, the continuous inflow of food and hence trade from China has helped maintain market prices, North Korea-China tradesmen say.

Earlier this year, the Rural Development Administration in South Korea estimated North Korea’s food production to be 4.3mn tons. Evidence from a defector who once worked at North Korea’s food distribution ministry and past analysis on crop production suggests that North Korea would not have incurred a food crisis in the case it had produced more than 4mn tons of output.

Simply put, 4.3mn tons of production is at the least enough to maintain the lives of North Korean citizens. Undoubtedly, in a society like North Korea, this figure could initiate a food crisis and starvation in the lower class. However, inflating the shortage of food may only cause exhaustion of essential aid.

In addition, some argue that international organizations are actually provoking this vicious cycle in North Korea by decreasing the real amount of food produce.

Recently, North Korean analyst Marcus Noland published a report, ‘Famine in North Korea’ where he argued that about 50% of international food aid was being consumed by the military and, or the elite class.

In the report, he said, “The North Korean government consistently sought to frustrate transparent, effective humanitarian relief” and that, “Diversion is almost certainly occurring on a large scale, enough food to feed between 3 to 10 percent or more of the North Korean populace. Some of this aid is almost surely consumed by politically connected groups, including the military.”

Korea Times
Kim Sue-young
3/25/2007

South Koreans will now be more easily able to visit the Kaesong area in North Korea as an invitation from the North is not required, officials of the Unification Ministry said.

For visit to the joint inter-Korean industrial complex in the city, the North Korean association on economic cooperation used to issue an invitation but an admission ticket from the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee (KIDMC) is now sufficient, they said.

“Recently, North Korean authorities which manage the complex and the committee agreed to abolish the invitation system during a discussion over rules on entry and stay,’’ an official said on condition of anonymity. “Instead, visitors should get a pass from the committee and long-term visitors who will stay for more than seven days should register at North Korea’s immigration office.’’

The two Koreas are talking over details to simplify the entry but have difficulties narrowing differences on the amount of charges that visitors should pay for the pass and registration, he said.

Officers of South Korean companies in the area, however, expressed worries over North Korea’s possible demand for expensive fees.

“Under the previous rules, visitors had to pay some amount of money when they obtained documents for stays, extended expiration dates or changed their addresses,’’ another official said asking to remain anonymous.

“Companies in the complex, however, may face problems doing business in the complex if the burden from those fees are heavier than the convenience brought by dropping the invitation system.’’

As for the worries from resident companies in Kaesong, the ministry official said, “It is unavoidable to impose some amount of money for guaranteeing a person’s identity.’’

Both sides are still discussing reasonable charges, he added.

Meanwhile, the North is pushing to establish a special economic zone on two islets located near the border of China. The zone is aimed at gaining China’s investment and reviving the declining economy, another source said.

Pyongyang is seeking to create a free trade zone on the Bidan and Wihwa islands on the Yalu River bordering China and has sounded out South Korean companies on their investment plans for the project, the source said.

The economic zone would specialize in areas such as trade, distribution, light industries and tourism, it added.

Yonhap
3/25/2007

South Korea will begin preparations for the development of a 2.5-million-pyeong area in the inter-Korean industrial complex in Kaesong, North Korea in the second half of this year, the Unification Ministry said Sunday. One pyeong equals 3.3 square meters.

The government will measure and conduct a geological survey of the land in the western North Korean border town for the second-stage construction of the industrial complex, the ministry said.

The construction project aims to build a 20-million-pyeong industrial base in three stages for South Korean companies by 2012. The complex, if completed, is expected to employ as many as half a million North Koreans to work for about 2,000-3,000 South Korean manufacturers.

The government originally planned to embark on the second-stage project last year, but had to put it off amid inter-Korean tension caused by the North’s missile and nuclear tests.

The ministry also said it plans to parcel out a 530,000-pyeong lot for South Korean manufacturers late next month. The land is the remainder of the 1-million-pyeong lot the South and North Korean governments have been jointly developing in the industrial complex.

The Kaesong industrial complex is one of the two major cross-border projects that South Korea has kept afloat in spite of U.S. opposition. The two Koreas also run a joint tourism project at the North’s scenic Mount Geumgang.

In the industrial complex, South Korean businesses use cheap but skilled North Korean labor to produce goods. Currently, 21 labor-intensive South Korean factories employ about 11,160 North Korean workers.

But U.S. hard-liners criticize the complex, claiming that the factories where North Korean workers earn about US$60 a month are actually channels to funnel much-needed hard currency to the tyrannical North Korean regime.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea is considering establishing a special economic zone on two small islands bordering China to help resuscitate its moribund economy, a South Korean source said Friday.

The North has been pushing to form a free trade zone on the Bidan and Wihwa islands on the Yalu River on the western border between North Korea and China, and has sounded out South Korean companies on their investment plans for the area, the source privy to inter-Korean economic projects said.

“The North has been mulling building the zone since early last year but hasn’t made headway in the wake of its nuclear test. The idea is being considered again now, however, as conditions became favorable following the Feb. 13 agreement,” the source said on condition of anonymity.

The source referred to a landmark six-party agreement in which North Korea promised to begin dismantling its nuclear programs in return for aid. The agreement, signed by the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan came four months after the North defiantly tested a nuclear weapon, prompting worldwide condemnation.

The economic zone is to specialize in such sectors as trade, distribution, light industries, tourism and finance, the source said.

In 2002, the North designated Sinuiju, a city bordering China, as a special economic zone, but the plan fell through after Beijing arrested its governor Yang Bin, a Chinese-Dutch entrepreneur, on bribery and kickback charges. Since then, the plan has been put on hold amid the North Korean nuclear standoff and China’s alleged opposition.

North Korea has been resorting to outside handouts since mid 1990s, when its state-controlled economy collapsed due to mismanagement and natural disasters.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea considering building special economic zone on two islands
Yonhap
3/23/2007

Daily NK
Kim Song A
3/23/2007

A North Korean missionary organization revealed that about 1,000 undergrounds existed in North Korea, totaling 135,000 members nationwide.

In an interview with Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 21st, Pastor Issac Lee of Cornerstone Ministries International, a Korean-U.S. missionary based organization said, “About 100,000 people (North Korean Christians) are being detained in prisons or are unknown, but about 35,000 North Koreans are accessible to the Cornerstone.”

Pastor Lee said, “When I visited a U.S. missionary organization in 1984, they already had a list of 3,500 names and addresses” and estimated, “There will most probably be about 1,000 underground churches in North Korea today.”

He said, “Rather than arresting spies, greater focus is placed on capturing Christians” and explained, “It is estimated that approximately 20,000 detainees are being imprisoned in North Korean gulags. Some reports have suggested that more than half these prisoners have been detained for religious reasons. Other reports claim this figure to be at least 10% or 20,000 prisoners in custody.”

Additionally, he said, “There is a large number of Christians who die in the gulags or experience greatest torture as they are the ones to express their faith.”

Regarding the Bongsu Church and Chilgol Church created by North Korean authorities, he said, “I do not doubt that these churches are mere puppets fabricated by the North Korean government…It is a controlled show by the Chosun Christian Alliance to fill the spaces in this movement.”

Since 1985, Cornerstone Ministries International began its missionary movement in North Korea and has been sending revised version bible in simple North Korean, as well as spreading pamphlets and fostering for greater awareness of the real situation of underground churches in North Korea.

Daily NK
Kim Young Jin
3/23/2007

Many North Koreans are saying that making money is different to the past. With the sudden wave of North Korea’s Jangmadang (integrated markets) spreading throughout the nation and with the whole population diving in trade, competition is soaring high. Individualism has intensified so much that the average person openly remarks that family and friends mean nothing when it comes to money.

In mid-March, Kim Jae Chun (pseudonym, 42) of Musan, North Hamkyung province, went to visit his relatives in Yanji, China. He said, “Nowadays, you cannot make a profit by operating small-trade… Selling goods has become tough as there are so many vendors now, even around the areas of Jangmadang, though their stores may not be legitimate.”

Kim’s wife sells rice nearby the Jangmadang in Musan. Up to a year ago, she would easily sell 10kg of rice. These days, she is lucky to sell even half. Normally, 100won (10% of the rice) remains as profit after selling 1kg of rice (1,000won). Simply put, Kim’s wife income has reduced from 1,000won to 500won.

Kim said, “People who own large-scale businesses sell expensive products targeting the rich or elite officials. Though these goods are different, nowadays, it has become hard to make money with rice, noodles or by selling a couple of clothing items.”

Nonetheless, Kim did agree that some business was better than no business. At the least, trade meant that you would not die of starvation.

He explained, “If you want to earn big cash at Jangmadang, you need to possess goods with greater value. If you want to earn even more money, people say, go to the integrated markets.”

“Lately, as people become experienced in trade, the more they are becoming obnoxious. Maybe it’s because they only think about money, it seems like a battlefield. There are even cases where friends and family become distant or ignored altogether. Why should we help each other out they argue since everyone has it touch,” he said.

When inquired whether or not relatives neglecting each other was an incident which had started during the food crisis, Kim responded, “Back then, it was because people really didn’t have anything. The problem is that today, people are not willing to help, even if they have something to share. People neglecting one another during the times where distributions were terminated is different to people who now only think about money.”

Lim Gil Man (pseudonym, 44) who had traveled with Kim from Chongjin agreed with Kim. He said, “In the past, people acted the way they did because they were starving to death. Today, people either stick by others with power or engage in corruption, with more and more people focused on making money.”

“Despite this, selling itself is not so bad. Compared to the times where we were all poor, at least now since there are some rich people, we can sell goods, and we have come to live more independently.”

As competition increases between North Koreans, it is expected that profits will continue to decline. The general populace of merchants trading in the North Korea-China region suspect that unless North Korean authorities propose reform measures to control the spread of markets, this wave of marketing will produce negative effects, with the possibility of rising antagonism amongst the people.

Daily NK
Han Young Jin
3/20/2007

(UPDATE: On Oct. 23, [2008] the State Department blacklisted two North Korean companies, Korea Mining Development Corp. and Korea Taesong Trading Co., for violating U.S. bans on the sale of equipment used in building missiles or other weapons of mass destruction to Iran and Syria. Citation: “North Korean Plane Was Grounded at U.S. Request “, Wall Street Journal, Jay Solomon, 11/1/2008 )

Daesung Trading Company and Maebong Company, Two Pillars of North Korea’s foreign currency

In the 80~90’s, the aim of the People’s Army of North Korea was to make foreign currency and consequently, each division of the government began to operate trading companies. However, there were many kinds of trading companies.

The Maebong Company under the General Staff which was established in the 80’s, Birobong Trading Company, Yongsung Trading Company, Manpoong Trading Company and Danpoong Trading Company founded in the 90’s, all under the top 5 trading companies in North Korea. Of these, Maebong Company is the most well-known; once also known as Kwangmyung Trading Company until 2000.

Following “Military First Politics,” Maebong Company became one of North Korea’s active traders with Daesung Trading Company belonging to the Worker’s Party Division 39.

One of the reasons that the military became directly involved in foreign currency came from the fact that the nation was unable to acquire the necessary war supplies itself due to the economic crisis. Further, as the Soviet Union and the East European bloc collapsed, trade was changed from bartering goods to dollars and hence, North Korea was in a dire state of insufficient currency.

Presently, the Maebong Company’s main office is in Pyongyang with branches throughout the country such as the border districts of Shinuiju, Haesan and Hoiryeong.

In order to attract powerful Chinese traders, Maebong Company only appoints those who have experience with foreign money as regional directors such as North Korean citizens with relatives in China. After giving the title of regional director, a permit is given. Though the regional director is registered as a tradesman for the military, actually he/she is in fact not a soldier.

With a certificate which states their position of foreign tradesmen, regional directors have the privilege of freely entering and exiting China.

Trading branches in each city, trading with Japan in the opensea

Trading partners are mostly China and Japan. Traders from Maebong Company dealing with China exchange goods such as second hand cars, medicinal herbs, silk cocoons and seafood.

With copies of Kim Jong Il’s orders distributed by Maebong Company, trading partners are able to transport secured goods supplied by foreign currency directors as far as the border regions without much difficultly from security posts.

One defector from Shinuiju said “In 1995, hundreds of trading companies were established in Shinuiju… Maebong Company was one of these companies which served as a shabby storage factory stocking 10tons of flour and medicinal herbs in which people could exchange for aluminum. At that time, these people who were called foreign currency directors wore overcoats made of dogs fur and rode second hand bicycles made in Japan.”

At one point, Maebong Company illegally sold second hand cars along the border region and gained considerable income. Nowadays, medicinal herbs and minerals are more popular and whereas more of the traders from the West Coast export seafood such as shells and razor clams to China, expectedly, export seafood to Japan occurs mainly on the East Coast.

Conceal illegal foreign currency, smuggling of gold prohibited

In 1997, authorities conducted a thorough investigation against traders in order to straighten the chaotic mess created by border tradesmen. After the investigation, Kim Jong Il ordered every trading company to be merged under the control of each agency. As a result, trading companies which had once been organized by the military divisions were disintegrated and became incorporated as part of the Maebong Company, now an integrated trading group.

After becoming a director for Maebong Company in Hoiryeong, “Kim” who had once lived a tough life is now known to be one of the richest people living in the area, frequently traveling to China.

According to one defector who had worked under the Korea Service Bureau of Workers’ Party division 16, there were 6 employees at the Hoiryeong Maebong Company located in Manghyang, which planned to earn $100,000 annually. Also, additional funds are kept in celebration of national events such as Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il’s birthday.

There is a great number of Maebong Company employees who engage in corrupt activity and ultimately are defaced. There is a saying in North Korea, “earning foreign currency is educational punishment,” meaning that though earning foreign currency is an occupation preferred by the many, it does at the same time involve greatest risk. In 1997, an investigation was made targeting central authorities. Many of these directors in charge ended up receiving severe punishment.

Once, “Park” a director of Shinuiju Maebong Company was convicted under the suspicion of depositing foreign currency into a Chinese bank and while undergoing the preliminary hearing was known to have attempted self-injury by swallowing a spoon. On another occasion, ‘Kim’ of Chongjin Maebong Company was known to have been executed for being involved in a case of smuggling gold.

Daily NK
Kim Min Se
3/19/2007

Today, a rich person in North Korea is someone who can spend roughly US$100~$500 (300,000~1.5mn North Korean won) a month. This amount is so large, that it is a figure unfathomable to the average North Korean.

Nowadays, a small number of lower class North Koreans sell noodles at the markets and earn 1,500~2,000won a day. On average, this equates to 50,000~60,000won a month. Additionally, the living costs of a family of 4 in Pyongyang normally costs about 50,000~100,000won.

While a laborer with a stable job earns about 2,000~3,000won (approx. US$0.66~1) a month, spending more than 100,000won (approx. US$32.2) a month is an extravagant figure. Simply put, it has become difficult to live only on selling noodles.

Anyone who spends more than 100,000won a month is probably eating rice and can afford to eat nutritious vegetables. This is the middle class of North Korea today.

The distinctive nature of this middle class is the disparity of the work as well as their past background being rather simple. This class has naturally appeared simply because of their genuine skills. These people know exactly the flow of the market and know how to make money. The only thing important to them is finding the opportunity to make money. In all, they have come to an understanding that money is needed in order to buy goods and live a life to the envy of others.

This middle class is closely linked to power. If a person only takes pride in the sense that he/she can money, then that person will be hit with a severe fall. It is a characteristic of North Korean society that power is critical in living a life making lots of money without trouble.

With money, these people are earning even more by buying the supervision of low ranking safety and security agents and local administrative officers. Simply put, the small amount of money invested as bribery in securing a good location at the markets is petty compared to the income reaped. In other words, whenever a new market is established at a village, a person can be confident in having the best spot by winning over the person in charge. For example, the bidding for the best spot at the Sunam Market, Chongjin is 900,000~1.5mn won (approx. US$290~$490).

Entrepreneurs may become the rich after regime reform

In 2002, the North Korean government passed the July 1st economic reforms which gave more freedom to marketers with less control by authorities and hence, trade became more active.

The mindset of the middle are so fixated on money, that they believe that money can solve anything even if a war was to break out the following day or North Korea was to be completely overturned. Though these people conspire with those in power in order to make money, they are unconcerned with what happens or rather does not happen to the Kim Jong Il regime.

There is a definitive difference between the middle class who are rubbing hands and the central class just in case the Kim Jong Il regime did collapse, compared to the upper class. The middle class are not from any particular special background, but with the skills and guile of making wealth, they are confident that there will be no problems irrespective of regime change.

People from this class even have the freedom to save and keep some food and daily necessities in preparation of this incident. Furthermore, currency is undoubtedly being saved, this also being foreign currency such as dollars. This, they call emergency relief in preparation for the time the North Korean regime does collapse, as well as a safe deposit to use whenever trade needed.

In addition, with the change of the North Korean regime, this class will be able to celebrate and radically transform from being an entrepreneur to the newly-rich with all the wealth acquired during the Kim Jong Il regime.

Korea Times
Lee Jin-woo
3/19/2007

North Korea has demanded that South Korean visitors or residents at a joint inter-Korean industrial complex in Kaesong, just north of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), pay registration fees, the Ministry of Unification said Monday.

The ministry, however, withheld the exact amount of money that Pyongyang demanded.

“I want you to understand it as a visa fee. It’s natural for one country to ask visitors from another nation to pay a certain amount in registration fees,’’ Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung told reporters.

Another ranking official also declined to reveal the amount of money proposed by the North, only saying there is a certain gap between the two sides.

Under an agreement on the operation of the Kaesong site signed in December 2003, South Korea is supposed to pay fees in accordance with the period of residence.

It defines a short-term stay as within 90 days and a long-term stay as more than 90 days. A South Korean who stays in the complex for over a year is defined as a resident.

South Koreans, however, have not paid any registration fees to the North Korean authorities because there has been no detailed regulation since the agreement was signed.

Currently, about 800 South Korean residents live at the complex, where South Korean businesses use cheap North Korean labor to produce goods. Some 21 South Korean factories employ about 11,160 North Korean workers there.

Meanwhile, Minister Lee marks his 100th day in office today. He took office on Dec. 11 last year despite vehement opposition from the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP).

After more than a seven-month chill, inter-Korean relations have been restored recently with several talks between the two Koreas underway to improve the reconciliatory atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula.

Asked to choose the most satisfying moment he had in the past 100 days, Lee picked the 20th inter-Korean Cabinet meeting held earlier this month in Pyongyang.

During the four-day ministerial talks which ended March 2, the two Koreas agreed on several principles including the resumption of family reunions using video links from March 27 to 29.

In inter-Korean Red Cross talks, the two sides recently agreed to resume construction of the reunion center beginning March 21.