Archive for the ‘Economic reform’ Category

Number of North Koreans in the Kaesong Industiral Zone increases

Sunday, December 14th, 2008

Quoting from the article:

North Korea has increased the number of its nationals working at a Seoul-funded industrial estate in the communist state since tighter border controls were introduced, data showed Sunday.

Statistics from South Korea’s unification ministry show North Korean workers numbered 37,168 in Kaesong, the estate just north of the border, on Friday, up from 36,618 on November 31.

On December 1 North Korea imposed stricter border controls and expelled hundreds of South Koreans from Kaesong amid strained cross-border ties, leading to fears in Seoul that Kaesong will eventually be closed down.

“The latest statistics show North Korea will not shut down Kaesong but thoroughly protect business there,” Kim Yong-Hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul’s Dongguk University, told AFP.

“The North is saying tighter border controls are targeting the Seoul government, not private businesses there, in a dual-track policy on the South.”

Read the full article here:
Number of NKoreans increased at Seoul-funded estate
AFP
12/14/2008

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Female N. Korean worker defected from Kaesong complex: activist

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

Yonhap
12/10/2008

A North Korean defector who escaped from an inter-Korean industrial complex in the border city of Kaesong where she was employed remains in a third country, a South Korean activist here said Wednesday.

The 27-year-old woman, whose identity was withheld for her safety, fled Kaesong in late September and has since asked for help to travel to South Korea, according to Kim Yong-hwa, who leads a Seoul-based civic group advocating for the human rights of North Korean defectors.

The Unification Ministry and officials from South Korean firms operating in Kaesong said they had not heard about the defection and that there was no sign of abnormality at the complex around that time.

If confirmed, it would be the first known defection from the industrial complex, where about 36,000 North Koreans are employed by dozens of South Korean factories operating under the tight control of authorities from Pyongyang.

Seoul officials say the workers were carefully selected from a pool of young people with good family backgrounds from the North Korean border city or Pyongyang to ensure they would not be unduly influenced by the atmosphere of capitalism at the comoplex.

Exactly what motivated the woman to defect is not known, but Kim said she was apparently forced to choose between her marriage and her job, which earned her a relatively good salary in the impoverished nation.

The communist North bans female workers at Kaesong plants from getting married, a violation of their rights, Kim added. “(The young woman) is said to have gotten a warning once from the authorities over the matter,” he said.

Kim says North Korea exploits its workers at Kaesong by giving them only US$2 out of their monthly wage of about US$60 paid by South Korean firms.

Currently, 88 labor-intensive garment, kitchenware and various other South Korean factories operate in Kaesong. Pyongyang recently expelled hundreds of South Korean officials and managers from the complex in an effort to pressure Seoul to change its hardline North Korea policy.

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Behind North Korean Plan to Reopen State Stores

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
12/10/2008

The North Korean authorities recently announced the intention to sell all industrial products in state-operated stores, soon after announcing the revised “10th-day farmers markets,” which open only on the 1st, 11th and 21st of every month, starting from next year.

According to an inside source in North Hamkyung Province, a new instruction on the sale of industrial products in state-operated stores was introduced during the latest cadres’ lectures. As rumors of the large-scale entry of Chinese goods onto the market due to Chinese loans circulate among people, there has been in a flutter in the market.

The source stated that the idea of industrial product sales was introduced during a cadres’ lecture on the 29th of November under the title, “measures to improve the current situation and people’s lives,” which also explained the transformation of the current market system into the “10th-day farmers market” system.

In the source’s opinion, “It signifies the government’s attempt to monopolize the industrial-product market, which was actively and spontaneously established by the people after the ‘march of tribulation’ in the late 1990s. Industrial goods to be sold in the state-operated stores would include both Chinese and North Korean products.

During the lecture, it was stated that “All industrial goods that have been passing through the jangmadang (markets) must now be sold in the state-operated stores and only vegetables or certain agricultural products can be sold within the farmers markets,” which suggests the prohibition of individuals selling food-related products and industrial goods.

With regard to the backdrop of this policy, the authorities explained that, “The current market was a temporary measure taken by the state considering the difficult situations caused by the march of tribulation. However, the markets after some time deviated from the state’s intention and socialist economic principles and have become a hotbed of crimes generating capitalist and anti-socialist trends. Therefore, we are ridding ourselves of all markets and reviving the farmers market.”

The source explained that this measure does not seem to “simply control the markets. But if they begin selling industrial products in the state-operated stores, they would be able to circulate money within the regime that has been circulating within private markets and among individuals by tying purchase profits to national banks.

He said, “Due to the jangmadang, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened. And, because money is not flowing within the regime, the authorities are getting rid of private sales to revive the banks so as to recover the regime economy… It seems the state-controlled economy will become better next year” he added.

However, the source also relayed that “Although they announced the selling of industrial goods only in the state-operated stores from next year, nothing, regarding exactly when and how, was mentioned during the lecture.”

“There is also another rumor that even ‘procurement stores’ would have to sell products on the same price level with the state-operated stores, or they would have to close down. It basically signifies that the regime will not permit any form of private sales, by selling all products that had been sold by individuals” he added.

The source reported that there have been heated debates on this decision among North Koreans.

“Famers gladly took this decision that industrial goods will sell in state-operated stores because they have been complaining that they sold agricultural products at next to nothing while buying industrial goods at such a high price. They are expecting that industrial goods will cost less than now” the source reported.

“However, workers in urban areas are extremely concerned that they cannot sell anything in the jangmadang. An average workers’ salary is 1,500 North Korean Won and if individuals are not permitted to sell, workers’ families will be harshly affected” he forecasted.

The source continued on and said, “Even though they say workers get paid well, how are they expected to live when a pair of military boots costs 9,000 North Korean won. One month’s salary is not even half a kilo of rice.”

The source in the end expressed concern because workers began “explicitly complaining about cadres who only fill themselves up. I personally think that there will begin a massive war within the markets starting from New Year’s Day”.

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DPRK reemphasizes priority development of national defense industries

Monday, December 8th, 2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-8-1
12/8/2008

The North Korean online magazine ‘Our Nation (uri minjokkiri)’ emphasized on January 1 that development of national defense industries would be prioritized, stating that it was “the best way to move forward and harden a strong national defense while at the same time developing the entire economy.”

In an article titled, “The Path to Economic Construction of the Military-first Era,” the website reminded the reader of the goal of building a strong and prosperous nation by 2012, and stated that Kim Jong Il had said that building up the economy was the “main line of construction for the building of a Strong and Prosperous Nation.” It went on, “Today’s era is the era in which the national economic strength is determined by the amount of development of the national defense industries,” and, “National defense industries are in a leading position, while the independent establishment of the core economic structure is necessary, and a strong economic base can be constructed.”

The magazine emphasized, “The might of heavy industry can be further strengthened following the completion of the basis of the national defense industries, also ceaselessly developing light industry and agriculture.” The article also stressed that as North Korea’s national defense industries are at a comparatively high level internationally, matching that of the United States, and that he national economy overwhelming potential is easy to see.

The article noted that today’s military competition between nations is practically scientific and technological competition, and, “strengthening of national defense in every way based on science and technology, and establishing a framework of science and technology and deciding to quickly develop a strong and prosperous nation by focusing on science is really the path for building the economy in the Military-first Era.”

The magazine emphasized that this military-first era economic building plan was “truly for the people, and was the most civic path to prepare national economic strength for public services.” “In accordance with changes in the political atmosphere and actual conditions, the amount of energy applied to building of national defense and economic construction, citizens’ livelihoods, or other realms could vary, but the true requirement of the building of the socialist economy is to ceaselessly raise the level of the livelihoods of the people, and ultimately, this goal can never waver.”

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DPRK takes measures to restrict market trading

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-2-2
12/2/2008

North Korean authorities appear to have taken some action on their recent decision to strengthen market restriction policies.

According to information weaned from statements made by contacts within North Korea, the DPRK cabinet passed a measure to turn the North’s markets into ’10-day Markets’, allowing them to open only on the 1st, 11th, and 21st day of each month beginning in 2009.

This information came from a lecture meeting for North Korean authorities, but it appears that workers in the Market Management Office have also been telling average citizens about similar measures since November. Some North Korean residents believe this is an effort to close general markets and convert them into farmers’ markets from next year.

There are some that expect strong opposition from North Korean residents that will make the likelihood of effective enforcement slim. There was much talk at the beginning of this year, as well, of transforming general markets into 10-day markets or farmers’ markets, but ultimately, such measures could not be enforced. Some believe that if current general markets are transformed into farmers’ markets, rioting could ensue.

As most goods circulating in general markets are in some way tied to the authorities, there is some doubt as to whether these authorities would abandon their personal profits in order to crack down on market trading. It has been reported that as of yet, there have been no significant shifts in the North’s major regional markets, and they are open daily and running smoothly.

Since November 10, there have also been rumors that all personal trade would be banned, but it appears that there has been no actual enforcement of this measure, either.

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DPRK crackdown, restrictive measures on first phase of KIC

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-2-1
12/2/2008

On November 24, North Korea announced measures to the Kaesong Industrial Complex management committee and other organizations involved in the KIC that would suspend tours to the city of Kaesong and cut the number of South Korean personnel in the complex by half, but stated that businesses operations within the complex would be guaranteed.

Kim Il-kun, current director of the North Korean Central Special Zone Development Bureau who had served as chairman of the North Hwanghae Province People’s Committee until October of this year, led the DPRK delegation, and from the South, KIC Management Committee Chairman Moon Moo-hong, KIC Business Council Chairman Moon Chang-sung, and representatives from companies operating in the complex were included in the 103 people in attendance.

First, the North delivered the notice to the public relations officer of the management committee from 11:00 to 11:07 in the morning.

The North’s KIC management committee announced in the notice, “50 percent of the management committee staff, including the committee chairman or vice-chairman, will evacuated by the end of November,” “Total workers, including those for construction and support activities, will be reduced by half,” “transit across the military demarcation line for those working on cooperative projects and exchanges within a one million-pyong area around the border will be strictly limited,” and stated, “The future of the industrial zone and inter-Korean relations depends on the stance taken by the South.”

From 11:10 to 11:20, the North announced the measures to the company representatives in the management committee assembly hall.

The North announced, “It was decided to guarantee as an exception activities of the businesses in the KIC, and so the resident workers of the South’s production companies are exempt from the measures restricting land crossings of the military demarcation line.”

The announcement proclaimed, “The responsibility for this kind of severe situation lies entirely with the Southern authorities who stubbornly pursue confrontational relations between North and South and fail to recognize the June 15 Joint Declaration and the October 4 Declaration…we do not wish for the South’s small and medium-sized enterprises to suffer from the imprudent confrontational policy of the South’s officials.”

In a separate notice, the North announced, “With the exception of those workers necessary to the KIC business operations, all South Koreans crossing the military demarcation line as visitors, tourists, for economic cooperation, etc. will be strictly limited or blocked,” “All unnecessary South Korean workers in the KIC, including the KIC management committee, will be evacuated, and land entry across the military demarcation line will be blocked, “The Inter-Korean Cooperation Council Office will be disbanded and all South Koreans related to it will be deported,” “Kaesong tours operated by Hyundai-Asan are halted,” “All Southern civic organization and entrepreneur coming in our region overland across the military demarcation line in the east and west seas for the purpose of cooperative exchange and economic transaction will be blocked from crossing overland, and if it is unavoidable that goods and their deliverers must cross by land strict inspections will be carried out,” and, “Train operations between our Bongdong Station and the Southern Munsan Stations are suspended.”

With the North’s new measures, because of the inability to repair inter-Korean relations, it appears likely that the number of new overseas companies looking to operate in the KIC will fall, orders from buyers will drop off, public opinion will sour, production will face difficulties, and the gradual withdrawal of businesses operating in the KIC coupled with the lack of new business interest could lead to the closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex

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Last call at Kaesong…

Monday, December 1st, 2008

The end of sunshine?
According to Yonhap (here and here), Friday, November 28, was the last day of the Kaesong day tours (210 tourists made the trip) and the last day the “train to nowhere” made its inter-Korean trip.

As for the Kaesong Industrial Zone (KIZ)…According to (Bloomberg), on December 1 the DPRK cut the number of “windows” available each day for South Korean vehicles to enter and leave the KIZ from 19 to 6 (though the Donga Ilbo claims just 3), and limited the number of South Koreans allowed in the complex to 880—about 20% of the 4,200 previously permitted to enter the complex.

According to the  Donga Ilbo, Pyongyang delivered notice at 11:55pm Sunday saying those allowed to stay in Kaesong are 27 staff of the management committee; four from the (South) Korea Land Corp.; 40 from Hyundai Asan Corp.; five at restaurants and living quarters; two at shops and hospitals; and 800 from South Korean companies. Border crossings are also limited to 250 staff members and 150 vehicles each time.

Jeopardizing more than Kaesong
As previously discussed (here and here), South Korea and Russia are interested in building oil and natural gas pipelines which would cross the DPRK. If these projects went through, the DPRK government would benefit from construction and “rental” fees—in effect taking a cut of all the energy resources that cross their borders.  North Korea, is now telling the Russians that the project is not too palatable at the moment.

Still more red than green it seems.

What now?
So while the DPRK chases away investment from the South, they solicit more from Kuwait and Singapore (where Chris Hill is due to stop by):

North Korean Foreign Trade Minister Ri Ryong Nam, now in Singapore, has urged Singapore companies to invest in the isolated country, the Singapore government said Monday.

The North Korean minister “briefed…on economic developments in North Korea and possible investment opportunities for Singapore companies,” in a meeting with Singapore’s former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, now a senior minister in the Cabinet, a government statement said.

Goh said, “Singapore would be glad to explore ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation, including in the areas of trade and investment, once international concerns were assuaged and the environment improved.”

Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo made a trip to North Korea in May, accompanied by a business delegation, in what was the first official visit to North Korea by a Singapore Cabinet minister.

On that trip, Yeo met North Korea’s No. 2 political leader Kim Yong Nam and Ri.

Yeo said at the end of his visit North Korea might be keen to learn from some aspects of the Singapore development model and that Singapore is ready to offer help and ideas. (Kyodo-Japan Economic Newswire)

Chewing gum manufacturers beware!

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Kuwait funding DPRK water and sanitation projects

Wednesday, November 26th, 2008

UPDATE: According to the Pyongyang Times:

The Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development has decided to loan on the updating of sewage treatment facilities in Pyongyang.

The ceremony for signing a loan-giving agreement took place on November 19 at the People’s Palace of Culture, which was attended by a delegation from the Ministry of City Management led by Deputy Minister Ri Kang Hui and a delegation from the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development headed by Deputy General Director Hesham Ebraheem Alwaqayan.

The fund will provide long-term low-interest loan for the technological renovation of sewage facilities in Pyongyang.

The loan will be spent on upgrading dozens of pumping stations.

The agreement was inked by Ri Kang Hui and Hesham Ebraheem Alwaqayan.

The Kuwait fund had loaned on the Pyongyang drinking water service reconstruction in 2003.

The DPRK ministry spent the loan on upgrading water purification plants, increasing water production capacity, updating and expanding drinking water service networks and establishing information system on drinking water service and completed the project in February last year.

ORIGINAL POST (2008-11-26): Although the DPRK is doing its best to chase away South Korean investment, the Kuwaiti government is providing Pyongyang with a USD$21.7 million loan to construct water and sanitation facilities.

The Kuwait Fund for Economic Development (KFAED) stated here on Sunday that it will sign a loan agreement with North Korea in a few days which is valued at KD 6.2 million (USD 21.7 million) to help in financiaing a sanitation system project.

In a statement to the media FKAED added the suggested project contributes in improving a the environment and public health by raising the performance of city sewage systems.

With this second loan, KFAED financing to North Korea is to come to KD 12.4 million (USD 43.4 million), going into development projects in water and sanitation sectors.  This is in addition to technical assistance of KD 153.5 thousand (USD 537,000).

I am unsure what exactly Kuwait’s play is here.  Altruism is well and good, but an unconvincing motive for such a hefty sum of money.  The only other narrative that I can imagine is awfully cynical:  If these sanitation projects are constructed by Kuwaiti contractors and engineers using Kuwaiti parts and supplies, then international development officials should be aware that the DPRK offers many opportunities to channel development funds into the coffers of supporters back home—you just have to make sure Pyongyang gets its cut.

Does anyone else have a theory?

Read the full story here:
Kuwait News Agency
11/16/2008

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Little sunshine on this cloudy day

Monday, November 24th, 2008

Last week, North Korean Economy Watch reported Pyongyang’s irrational economic policy threats which could end the flow of millions of South Korean dollars into North Korean coffers.  I use the word “irrational” because government policies are typically designed to increase revenues to the treasury (or to coalition / constituent members), not scare them away.  Today, however, North Korea reaffirmed its commitment to closing the border with South Korea on December 1, though with some qualifications:

1. The North Koreans will end “the train to nowhere(c) NKeconWatch. This is puzzling because of all the inter-Korean projects, this one is the least “contaminating.” The South Korean government pays the North Korean government to send an empty train across the border each day.  Why jeopardize this easy money?

2. The North Koreans will end the Kaesong day tours.  This will not be good for Hyundai Asan (HA), which is already suffering losses from the idle Kumgangsan resort.  On the plus side for HA, since this project merely bussed people around Kaesong, they will not be leaving much fixed capital on the northern side of the DMZ.  Still, it is strange that the North Koreans would seek to end this program.  Although it is slightly “contaminating” in that hundreds of South Koreans are shuffled through Kaesong every day, the North’s citizens are generally isolated from their wealthy neighbors. Additionally, I estimate that this program has grossed the North Koreans nearly USD$10 million since it was launched nearly a year ago. This is not an insignificant amount of money to the DPRK.

3. The ultimate fate of the Kaesong Industrial Zone remains uncertain.  Although the North Koreans have threatened to “selectively expel” up to half of the South Koreans in the facility, some managers remain optimistic:

“(The North) never said it would halt production or expel staff related to the production process. So even in the worst case of operating with only half of the staff, we think there won’t be any problem in production,” said Lee Eun-suk, an official at Shinwon Corp, which has clothing factories at Kaesong. (Reuters, via the Washington Post)

Unless North Korea’s policy makers are terminating the flow of economic rents into the country to curb the power of some particular official or interest group, there are not many instances where these actions could be considered shrewd.  Adding to the confusion, most analysts presume that the majority of the South’s construction and wage fees are distributed to the small cohort of high-ranking North Korean policy makers who ostensibly signed off on the projects in the first place.  So why would they now decide to end their own direct funding?

These policy decisions, moreover, will likely affect the North Koreans in ways they do not yet seem to anticipate, particularly when it comes to attracting private foreign direct investment (which is desperately needed).  Private investors will not be attracted to a business environment where the rules of the game are prone to changing every few months.  Investment entrepreneurs will not risk the appropriation of large scale fixed assets.  International aid and official foreign direct investment will probably go on as usual as these tasks have more to do with political decisions than economic.

So what is going on?  That is the million dollar question, and speculation in this case is not worth all that much.  The Daily NK, however, claims to have interviewed an “official” from Pyongyang who discussed recent developments in the Kaesong Industrial Zone.  His claim is that the North Koreans made the decision to close the Kaesong Zone for internal political reasons:

Q. What is the reason that North Korea is trying to suspend the business in the Kaesong Industrial Complex?

A. In fact, the story about the suspension of the Kaesong Complex has emanated from Pyongyang since this fall, but it had been decided as an instruction of the Party in Pyongyang late last year.

It is hard to say conclusively what is happening in Kaesong, because there are so many complicated things at work. People from the Party in Pyongyang say that the Kaesong Complex and tourism should fall into disuse and the Mt. Geumgang tourism site should be left alone. Whether or not the Kaesong Complex is thrown away is only up to our economy condition and also the General (Kim Jong Il)’s decision.

Q. Do you mean that instructions on the Kaesong Complex have already been decided internally by the Party?

A.Yes, you can say that. This was because at the beginning, they started it on in the precondition of switching workers once a year, but now they know that switching workers every year is impossible.

Additionally, rumors on South Chosun have been constantly circulating among workers and their families, so illusion of the South have now become uncontrollable among the people. The authorities cannot overlook this situation.

From the Party’s view, each worker in Mt. Geumgang and Kaesong is like a poster advertising capitalism. Due to them, our socialist system could be cracked.

As I know, at least 20 affiliates with Kaesong Complex came into questioning for advertising South Chosun and capitalism.

There was a thorough reshuffling in the Party last year. There is nobody who talks about Kaesong or Mt. Geumgang.

Q. Can North Korea ignore the abundant dollars from Kaesong in practice?

A. Frankly speaking, we have relied on it due to money. Even right now, if South Korea treats things like the Mt. Geumgang shooting accident flexibly and starts the tours again, everything is okay. The money we want does not need to come only from South Korea. There are Yuan, Rubles and dollars as well. They are all the same.

Although our economy is so terrible, we will not establish the national vision only targeted on making money. You should bear this point in mind.

Thoughts and opinions apprecaited. 

Read more here:
There Is an Internal Reason for the Bluff on Kaesong
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
11/16/2008

Kaesong Staff to Be Expelled
Daily NK
Kim So Yeol
11/24/2008

Kaesong Tour and Trains are Suspended
Daily NK
Jeong Jae Sung
11/24/2008

North Korea to Halt Cross-Border Rail Service, Tours
Bloomberg
Heejin Koo
11/24/2008

North Korea prepares to shut border with South
Reuters (via Washington Post)
Jonathan Thatcher
11/24/2008

N. Korea Stiffens Diplomatic Stance
New York Times
Choe Sang-hun
11/24/2008

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North Korean authorities order markets to open every ten days, from 2009

Friday, November 21st, 2008

Daily NK
Jeong Jae Sung
11/21/2008

The North Korean authorities have been on the move to strengthen recent market regulation policies.

The 6th edition of “NK In & Out,” a recently released newsletter by the Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights (NKnet, Representative Han Gi Hong), relayed an order decreed by the North Korean authorities for the operation of markets every 10 days (on the 1st, 11th, and 21st of the month) starting next year, and introduced as an example some Pyongyang-based markets that only open once a month (on the 10th of every month) starting from last month.

According to the newsletter, an inside source in Yangkang Province reported, “The news of the ‘10-day market system’ starting next year emerged from lectures for government officials.”

A source from Shinuiju also said, “From November, the market maintenance office guards have been relaying the news of the conversion of permanent markets into markets that will operate much less frequently to the civilians.”

A North Hamkyung source said, “At a recent meeting of the People’s Unit, I heard that a new market management policy will come into effect starting next year. However, this is nothing new; all it is saying is that the jangmadang will be eliminated and converted into farmers’ markets, starting next year.”

The sources then pointed out that while the resistance of North Korean citizens will be strong, the possibility of actual policy implementation is deemed low.

The sources unanimously declared, “Similar news of the conversion of markets to the 10-day system or farmers’ markets began to circulate widely at the beginning of the year, but it was not carried out. If the jangmadang are converted into farmers’ markets right now, a riot will result.”

They also retorted, and expressed skepticism regarding the regulation of the market itself, “Most of the products that are circulated in the markets are connected to officials, so they will not actively step forward to regulate the markets and forsake their own gains.”

The “NK In & Out” newsletter relayed that irregular trends have not yet taken place in the markets in North Korea’s major regions. One Chinese trader who visited Dandong, China on the 10th said, “Markets are operating as normal, daily, in Pyongyang, Eunsan, Pyongsung, and Shinuiju.”

He added, “Among the rumors I have heard recently, there was one that private trade itself would be strictly prohibited from November 10th, but this news has been circulating for a while, so people are uncertain whether this will actually happen either.”

The newsletter released a rumor that graffiti and flyers saying “Topple Kim Jong Il” were seen on the morning of the September 9th National Foundation Day among North Korean citizens.

With regard to this, a Shinuiju source stated, “According to stories from merchants who have recently come from Pyongyang, the graffiti could be found near Chungsung Bridge on Unification Street in Pyongyang on September 9th. Flyers were passed out in the markets.”

He added, “The flyers also said, ‘What is socialism?’ ‘How can officials eat well while people starve?’ and ‘Let’s end the Kim Jong Il era’.”

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