North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE 4 (2013-1-10): Kyodo (via The Telegraph) solves the riddle of just why the Kim statues on Mansu Hill were covered up in October 2012 (See below)–a new version of the Kim Jong-il statue was put up. It replaced a statue that was erected in April 2012.

Below is a before/after comparison.

UPDATE 3 (2012-10-3): A reader sends in this image of the statues covered up.

Ruedeger Frank also publishes an image at 38 North.

UPDATE 2 (2012-4-14):

Pictured Above: Mansudae Grand monument.  (L) Google Earth, (R) Digital Globe

UPDATE 1 (2012-4-13): The Kim Jong-il statue and Kim Il-sung statues were unveiled today to much “fan fair”:

Above pictures via KCNA. Compare these with the photo I took of the Kim Il-sung statue in 2004.

Video of the unveiling can be found here (YouTube).

According to KCNA:

Statues of President Kim Il Sung and leader Kim Jong Il were successfully built on Mansu Hill.

The statues portray smiling Kim Il Sung who indicates the way ahead with his hand held forward and smiling Kim Jong Il blessing Songun Korea prosperous morrow while looking far into its bright future in the new century.

Large sculptures on both sides of the statues have been renovated on the highest level.

The unveiling ceremony took place with splendor Friday.

There were huge crowds of people from all walks of life, servicepersons, youth and students, 300 000 in all, on Mansu Hill and nearby streets. They were holding bouquets and balloons.

Supreme leader of the Workers’ Party of Korea and the people of the DPRK Kim Jong Un, first secretary of the WPK, first chairman of the National Defence Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, was present at the opening ceremony.

Present there were senior party, state and army officials, chairpersons of friendly parties.

Also on hand were delegates to the celebrations of the centenary of the birth of the President, creators, officials and employees of the Mansudae Art Studio, officials of the party, armed forces and power bodies, social organizations, ministries and national institutions, anti-Japanese revolutionary fighters, anti-Japanese patriotic martyrs, servicepersons of the Korean People’s Army and the Korean People’s Internal Security Forces (KPISF), officials in the fields of science, education, literature and arts, public health and media, heroes, bereaved families of revolutionary martyrs, men of merits and working people in the city.

Also present there were a delegation of the Koreans in Japan and delegations of overseas compatriots and overseas Koreans, the chief of the Pyongyang mission of the Anti-Imperialist National Democratic Front, diplomatic envoys of different countries and representatives of international organizations here and foreign guests who are participating in the World Congress on the Juche Idea, the international festival and the April spring friendship art festival.

The statues were unveiled by senior party, state and army officials.

The moment thunderous cheers of “Hurrah!” resounded forth, fireworks were displayed and balloons were released.

Laid before the statues were large floral baskets in the joint name of the Central Committee of the WPK, the Central Military Commission of the WPK, the National Defence Commission of the DPRK, the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, Cabinet and in the name of all the Korean people.

Laid were floral baskets in the name of ministries, national institutions, armed forces organs, provinces, cities, counties, important units which were visited by the President and Kim Jong Il, units of the KPA and the KPISF, party and power bodies and factories, enterprises, co-op farms, universities, colleges and schools in Pyongyang and local areas.

Floral baskets were also laid by the diplomatic corps and the military attaches corps here and foreign guests and overseas compatriots.

All the participants bowed to the statues.

Kim Yong Nam, member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee who is president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly of the DPRK, made a speech.

He said that Kim Jong Un instructed to build the statue of Kim Jong Il on Mansu Hill together with that of Kim Il Sung and energetically led the work to build them on the highest level in the shortest time possible.

It was possible to erect the statues on the highest level in a matter of some 100 days thanks to the yearning and devotion made by all the soldiers and people, overseas Koreans and the world progressives.

This great auspicious event is a precious fruition of the noble moral obligation of Kim Jong Un and his energetic leadership. It is also a striking manifestation of the unshakable will of the army and people of the DPRK to hold Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in high esteem for all ages.

ORIGINAL POST (2012-3-1): Hannah Barraclough (Koryo Tours) reports on the CanKor web page:

A new statue of Kim Jong Il on a horse was unveiled at Mansudae Art Studio on the 15th Feb. It has been placed alongside the one already existing there of Kim Il Sung on a horse. It also appears that they are making a new large statue of Kim Jong Il which will go on Mansu Hill next to the one of Kim Il Sung there which is currently covered up. This is expected to be completed by April.

Additional Information:

1. The Kim Il-sung statue on Mansu Hill was recently covered up for renovations of the Korean Revolution Museum located directly behind it.

2. Here, here, and here are recent posts on different construction projects in Pyongyang.

3. A memorial to Kim Jong-il has recently been carved into Mt. Sokda and a memorial to Kim Jong-il is reportedly under construction in Hoeryong.

4. Here and here are additional stories on efforts to venerate Kim Jong-il.

UPDATE 1 (2012-2-21): According to the Korea Times, this store is now providing people with a legal window to exchange local for hard currency:

North Korea is apparently allowing foreign currency to be exchanged at unofficial, black market rates at a newly-renovated department store in Pyongyang, according to a diplomatic source who recently visited the country, Tuesday.

The source said people could exchange euros, dollars and yuan at kiosks at Kwangbok Area Supermarket, which recently opened after refurbishment and is said to resemble department stores in the South. The North has long kept the value of its local currency artificially high.

Euros were being exchanged at the rate of one euro for 4,420 North Korean won, while the official rate is around 130 won per euro, the source said.

“They are exchanging hard currency at a rate that seems to be an unofficial rate,” the source told The Korea Times. “People can also shop at the department store using foreign currency by taking their receipts to the booths.”

…

The source added that the exchange rates were written on a board inside the kiosks.

ORIGINAL POST (2012-1-6): See the original post below.

Pictured Above: (L) The original facade of the “Kwangbok Department Store (광복백화점)”. (R) The new facade of the “Kwangbok Area Supermarket (광복지구상업중심)”

Here is KCNA coverage of the opening of the facility (Posted to YouTube):

Astute observers will notice the American beer, Pabst Blue Ribbon, featured prominently in the beer section.

Here is coverage of the opening in KCNA (2012-1-5):

Pyongyang, January 5 (KCNA) — The Kwangbok Area Supermarket was opened with due ceremony on Thursday.

All business service at the supermarket built as a commercial service center has been put on IT and digital basis. Customers can buy varieties of goods according to their taste and requirements in the sales rooms on each floor stacked with household appliances, electronic products, foodstuff, fibre, sundries and others.

Present there were officials concerned, officials of the Korea Taesong General Trading Corporation, officials and employees of the Kwangbok Area Supermarket, members of the Feihaimengxin Trading (Beijing) Co. Ltd. staying in the DPRK and the Chinese embassy here.

O Ryong Il, general president of the Corporation, said in his speech that the work to build the supermarket was successfully completed under the energetic leadership of leader Kim Jong Iland the dear respected Kim Jong Un and the positive efforts of the peoples of the two countries.

He expressed belief that the supermarket would help towards improving the people’s living standard and promoting the well-being of the two peoples through better service and management.

Xue Rifei, executive managing director of the Feihaimengxin Trading (Beijing) Co. Ltd., said in his speech that Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un gave field guidance to the supermarket on December 15, 2011 and named it the Kwangbok Area Supermarket.

He expressed the expectation that an effort will be made to reenergize the supermarket to win high appreciation for its best management, service and credit.

The Korea Taesong General Trading Corporation is a sanctioned organization, and according to the US Treasury, it is a “key node” in the illicit activity of Office 39. According to NK Leadership Watch:

One of the participants at the opening ceremony was Jon Il Chun (Chon Il-chun), deputy director of the Korean Workers’ Party’s Finance and Accounting Department and section chief of Office #39.  Mr. Jon accompanied Kim Jong Il on a visit to the Kwangpok store in mid-December 2011, which was KJI’s last reported public appearance before his death.

On a more casual note, the supermarket marks a point of administrative departure from the way department stores are typically managed in socialist countries. The Kwangbok Department Store (the former name) was one of Pyongyang’s premier formal retail outlets. For decades it operated in the same way as other socialist department stores: customers ended up standing in three lines before they were able to collect their merchandise (one line to order, another line to pay, and another line to pick up). The new Kwangbok Supermarket has adopted a market-style check out line. Though unnoticed by foreigners, this is the first such check out line I have seen in a North Korean department store.

This point was also highlighted in AP coverage:

A separate story in KCNA notes that the shop will sell both foreign and domestic goods:

The supermarket is supplied with home and foreign-made products which are in demand in the country.

Although I have not acquired data specific to this store, I believe it is reasonable (even rational) to assume that if the supermarket sells imported goods it will charge had currency for them. This opinion is based on the following assumptions: 1. The Chinese investors will not accept North Korean won under any circumstances. 2. The goal of Office 39 is to acquire hard currency for the Kim family. 3. North Korean retail outlets frequently post prices in multiple currencies so I don’t see any reason why it would be different here. Today a plurality of North Koreans can easily acquire foreign exchange.

Here is my working assumption of the business model: Chinese partner acquires merchandise and imports it to the DPRK. Sales in hard currency go towards allowing the Chinese supplier to recover its costs. Chinese partner either earns a profit from a markup it charges Kwangbok or it divides the profit with Office 39 along some agreed percentage.

If Chinese profits are earned from a cost-plus markup that it charges Kwangbop, then the partnership is closer to an exclusive supplier deal rather than a true joint equity deal. The North Koreans could cheat on this deal by finding cheaper suppliers and decreasing its purchases from the Chinese partner. If after-sales profits are split between the Chinese and Office 39, then both partners will need auditors on hand to make sure the books are accurate. The Chinese partner will also need a good relationship with the Chinese embassy if it runs into problems with the DPRK managers should they unilaterally change the terms of the contract (the split).

A Chinese firm reportedly tried to invest in the Pyongyang Department Store No. 1 several years ago. Not much seemed to happen, but maybe there is some more info here.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2012-2-16

The KCNA announced on February 9 that the “Foreign Investment Bank Law” was modified and supplemented. According to the report, the amended law included “those businesses in operation for over ten years are exempt from income tax on the profit collected in the first year and Bank of Chosun [Bank of North Korea] will be exempt from business taxes on the interest revenue collected from loans provided to companies on favorable terms.”

The previous law already had regulations about exemption of transaction taxes but nothing on business tax. The foreign investment company and foreigner tax law regulated that two to ten percent of profit to be paid by the foreign companies in service and construction sectors.

While the prior law stated, “tax exemption will be provided for the first year for income tax on those businesses over ten years old, and 50 percent exemption will be given in the next two years,” the “50 percent limit” was omitted in the amended legislation.

According to the KCNA, “The law has 5 chapters and 32 articles which included the contents of categorization and specification for areas to establish foreign investment banks, property rights, and autonomy on business management.”

On February 10, the KCNA announced that the Foreign Investment Company Registration Law, Foreign Investment Company and Foreigner Tax Law, and Foreign Investment Company Bankruptcy Law were amended.

In reference to the ordinance of the Supreme People’s Assembly Standing Committee signed on December 21, 2011, provided that this law consisted of 6 chapters and 34 articles with specifics on business establishment, address, tax, and tariff registrations. However, no other details were given.

On January 30, the KCNA also reported the “Labor Law of Foreign Investment Company” was amended and supplemented. This law consists of 8 chapters and 51 articles on hiring and labor contracts, rest, protection, social insurance, and security.

In addition, the “Financial Management Law of Foreign Investment Company” and “Fiscal Law of Foreign Investment Company,” was also modified. However, no other details were provided.

The KCNA has reported that North Korea modified foreign investment laws previously in 1992, 1999, and 2004. This year marks the fourth amendment.

The news elaborated, “The DPRK is encouraging foreign companies to investment in our country based on complete equality and reciprocity and will not nationalize or collect the invested asset,” reiterating the safety and security of foreign investment.

Some analyze the recent amendment as an effort to attract more foreign investment into the country. Similarly, North Korea has recently announced the Special Economic Zone Act for the development of Hwanggumpyong and Wiwha Islands.  In addition, the state-run Academy of Social Sciences published a newsletter emphasizing the rational tax investigation for foreign companies.

The Daily NK also reported on this development:

On February 10th, Choson Central News Agency (KCNA) reported fresh amendments to North Korea’s laws governing foreign investment.

KCNA revealed, “Chosun’s law on the registration of foreign-funded enterprises has changed. 34 articles in 6 chapters of the law, which was made according to a December 21st, 2011 decision of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly to cover the founding, residence, taxation and customs of businesses, have been amended.”

As is ordinarily the case, specific amendments were not included in the report.

On February 9th, North Korea also announced revisions to its Foreign Investment Bank Law issuing exemptions from consumption tax. Last month also saw revisions to banking as well as labor and financial management laws.

The amendments appear aimed at assuaging the fears of Chinese enterprises over issues such as the threat of expropriation. Indeed, China is said to have last month rejected initial laws governing the management of special economic zones at Hwanggeumpyeong and Wihwa Island nr. Shinuiju for a variety of reasons.

Read the full story here:
NK Investment Laws Get Another Makeover
Daily NK
Kim Tae Hong
2012-2-13

UPDATE 2 (2012-4-12): North Korea and China attracting investors for Rajin Port development (IFES):

China is currently actively recruiting investors to build additional wharfs in Rajin Port.

China’s Dandong City Industrial and Information Association (丹东市信息协会) announced that it is seeking investments for the construction of tanker wharf under 10,000 ton and affiliated facilities. This organization has received 45 year usage rights from the Rason City People’s Committee and stated that it needed 330 million CNY (52 million USD) to cover the construction cost. According to the association, the investment is attractive because of its geographic location, reduced transit time and costs, and tax-free benefits, for which a special permit was obtained from the North Korean authorities granting trade goods coming from Jilin Province at the Hunchun Port to be allowed entry tax-free. In addition, cargo will be permitted to be sent from Rajin Port to other ports in China.

Meanwhile, North Korea is also planning to build a new port in the Rajin-Sonbong area with a state-of-the-art container distribution capacity. According to the “Rajin New Port Development Plan,” Rajin port development will undergo major transformation as an international hub port, similar to Busan Harbor, unlike the previous small-scale renovations of Piers 1, 2, and 3. This new port is expected to be built across from the current Rajin Port.

Rajin Port development was initially considered as a remodeling project to update the existing wharfs. In 2003, China began to implement construction of Piers 1, 2, and 3. However, the piers began to deteriorate and for the lack of railway and road infrastructure in the area, it delayed the transportation and distribution and could not perform its full function. As a solution, in 2008, North Korea transferred the usage right of Pier 1 to China and Pier 3 to Russia. At that time, Pier 1 was developed to primarily transport chemical fertilizers but it was recently updated as a transportation dock for coal. Russia, in addition to the port, also carried out a modernization project of the Rajin-Hassan railway system to improve the transport of containers.

The new port development plan as suggested by North Korea indicates Jian Group of China as the responsible party for developing the new port into a container port. However, considering that North Korea’s industry does not call for container ports, it is more likely that North Korea is expanding the port to make it a hub port to ship cargo to China, Russia, and Europe. Considering Rajin Port’s geographical advantage, it is likely that North Korea is striving to make it into an international hub port that connects the Pacific with Northeast Asia.

China’s recent advertisement of investment is also considered to be linked with the new port development in Rajin Port.

UPDATE 1 (2012-3-1): Accoridng to Stratfor, the Chinese have denied they plan to make this investment.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry denied allegations made in a Feb. 16 South Korean media report regarding its agreement with North Korea to jointly develop the Rajin-Sonbong Special Economic Zone (SEZ), a port area in northeast North Korea commonly referred to as the Rason Special Economic Zone.

According to the Yonhap news agency, Beijing agreed in late 2011 to invest about 19 billion yuan ($3 billion) into Rason, for which it would receive the lease of three piers for 50 years. Under the agreement, Beijing would also build an airfield, a thermal power plant and a 55-kilometer (34-mile) railway track connecting Rason to Tumen, China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed that the specific details of the report are untrue and that China and North Korea had agreed only in principle to develop the zone.

China has long exerted its economic influence in North Korea and has an interest in the strategically important Rason Special Economic Zone. Chinese involvement in Rason dates back to the 1990s, though Beijing increased its involvement considerably in 2005 when it secured the rights to one of the port’s piers. Beijing has been particularly involved over the past few years. While the details of the deal remain unknown, it is clear that Beijing has arranged to help Pyongyang develop Rason, possibly by connecting the remote port to northwest China. Such a development would revitalize the zone — to the benefit of both countries.

ORIGINAL POST (2012-2-15): China has committed to infrastructure projects in Rason. According to Yonhap:

China has secured the rights to build three new piers in a special economic zone in North Korea’s northeast and use them for 50 years, sources said Wednesday.

China will also build an airfield and a thermal power plant in the special economic zone known as Rason, as well as a 55-kilometer railway track between China’s northeastern city of Tumen and Rason.

North Korea and China reached an agreement late last year to build infrastructure in Rason with Chinese investment of about US$3 billion, according to the sources in Seoul and Beijing.

The Daily NK offers some more data:

China has agreed to dig out dock 4 at Rasun to make it possible for 70,000 ton vessels to dock and to construct a runway long enough to accommodate passenger and cargo aircraft within the SEZ; the railroad is due to be complete by 2020, while the development of dock 5 and 6 will follow that of dock 4, Yonhap sources claim.

This agreement was reportedly signed quietly by North Korea’s Joint Ventures Committee and the Chinese government shortly before Kim Jong Il’s death.

The North Koreans have sought the construction of an airport and expansion of the port  for some time.

KITC published the image above in 1995 (Source here).  If you look carefully on the right side of the picture you will see the site of a proposed airport.

Above is a more recent map of Rason published by the DPRK. In the middle of the above map you can see a small airplane which represents the desired location of a future airfield. It is in the same location as shown on the KITC map.

Here is the approximate location on Google Earth (42.397884°, 130.592084°):

If you look at the left side of the KITC photo you can also see that there are many piers, however today there are only three.  I suspect that the new piers will be constructed south of the current piers and will look something like this:

The railway and power plant projects are intereting as well.  There is already a thermal power plant in Sonbong, so I expect that the Chinese are simply renovating it so that it generates more power or is simply more reliable (Google Earth:  42.327275°, 130.382585°):

At a presentation at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, DC, Andray Abrahamian reported that increased electricity supplies for the Rason Zone could come from China.

As for the Tumen (China) – Rason railway line…this already exists as well.  The DPRK’s Hambuk Line (함북선) runs from Chongjin to Namyang (border with Tumen) to Rason:

The Tumen to Rason leg of this railway line, however, is approximately 156km (according to Google Earth) and likely runs pretty slowly.  The proposed new Chinese-built Tumen-Rason line is intended to be just 1/3 the distance!

Additional Information:

1. The Russians built a railway line from their border to the Rajin Port. Learn more here.

2. The Chinese and Russians have already rented two of Rajin’s three ports.

Read the full stories here:
China secures right to use 3 piers to be built on N. Korean port for 50 years
Yonhap
2012-2-15

China Reportedly Grabs 3 Docks and More
Daily NK
2012-2-15

Following the unveiling of the Kim Jong-il memorial carved into Mt. Sokda last week, today KCNA announced the unveiling of a Kim Il-sung and a Kim Jong-il statue at the Mansudae Art Studio in Pyongyang.

Click image for a larger version.

You can watch the unveiling in video format on the KCNA page here. You can watch the video on YouTube here.

According ot KCNA:

The statues of President Kim Il Sung and leader Kim Jong Il riding on horses together were erected at the Mansudae Art Studio with approach of the Day of the Shining Star.

Their construction, the first of its kind in the history of the Workers’ Party of Korea and the Korean revolution, is a great glory and pride of Kim Il Sung’s nation and Kim Jong Il’s Korea.

A ceremony of unveiling the statues took place on Tuesday.

Present there were senior party, state and army officials Kim Yong Nam, Choe Yong Rim, Ri Yong Ho, Kim Yong Chun, Kim Ki Nam, Choe Thae Bok, Yang Hyong Sop and Kang Sok Ju, officials of party, military and power bodies, social organizations, ministries and national institutions, men and

officers of the Korean People’s Army and the Korean People’s Internal Security Forces, officials and employees of the Studio and working people in the city of Pyongyang.

Senior officials of the party, state and army and officials of the studio unveiled the statues.

Laid at the statues is a floral basket from Kim Jong Un, supreme leader of the WPK and the people and KPA supreme commander.

Placed were floral baskets in the name of the WPK Central Committee, the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly, the DPRK Cabinet, the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces, the Ministry of People’s Security, working people’s organizations, ministries and national institutions,
units of the KPA and party and power organs in the city.

The participants made bows to the statues.

Kim Yong Nam, member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the C.C., the WPK and president of the Presidium of the SPA, made an address at the ceremony.

It was the unanimous desire and ardent wish of all the Party members, servicepersons and people to erect a statue of Kim Jong Il as well as Kim Il Sung’s in order to hand down for all ages the prominent traits and revolutionary feats of the illustrious great man, the speaker said, adding:

This ardent desire has been realized thanks to Kim Jong Un’s boundlessly noble loyalty and meticulous guidance.

He called for glorifying the revolutionary careers and undying feats of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il forever with the immutable faith that they are always with us.

The participants looked round the statues after being briefed on them.

Though the unveiling displayed BOTH Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il statues, there was previously a Kim Il-sung statue located at this exact spot.  I am not sure if this statue has been decommissioned, moved, or incorporated into the new sculpture:

This is only the third Kim Jong-il statue of which I am aware–and the first located outside.

There is a Kim Jong-il statue at the International Friendship Exhibition in Myohyangsan:

The other Kim Jong-il statue is in the Ministry of the Peoples’ Armed Forces:

Both the Kim Il-sung statue and the Kim Jong-il statues were manufactured on location at the Mansudae Art Studio:

Pictured above (Google Earth): The Mansudae Art Studio in Pyongyang. The blue roofs indicate that most of the buildings have recently been renovated.

At the same time, the Daily NK reports that Kim Jong-un has asked that the costs of memorializing his father not be passed on the people (like this).

UPDATES related to the celebrations of Kim Jong-il’s 70th birthday:

1. Kim Jong-il also named “Generalissimo” — a title previously reserved for his father, Kim Il-sung.  This clears the way for Kim Jong-un to be promoted to “Marshal”.  Many officers were also promoted and awarded the Kim Jong-il Prize. Daily NK coverage here.

2. Commemorative gold and silver coins were issued to celebrate Kim jong-il’s 70th birthday. See more here and here.

3. New stamps were issued.

4. A military tribute was held in Kumsusan Palace (which was renamed Kumsuan Palace of the Sun). See video here.

5. The KCNA web page added a Kim Jong-il photo album. See it here.

6. A new Kim Jong-il badge is issued.

7. NK Leadership Watch coverage here.

8. Here is my lengthy collection of material published when Kim Jong-il passed away.

According to Choson Exchange:

As we mentioned recently, Ri Chol, the broker of the Orascom deal, has moved on from JVIC. Where he has gone is not yet certain, but the choice for his replacement is interesting.

Ri Gwang Gun is the new head of JVIC and was introduced as such to the CEO of Orascom last week. Ri Gwang Gun has held various positions related to trade, including executive positions at state owned enterprises and as Minister of Foreign Trade. He apparently reports to Kim Yang Gon.

He was (is?) a Daepung Investment Group man. We’ve speculated that the existence of both Daepung and JVIC reflected a kind of “competition at the top” for influence in attracting and managing investments. They were both formed around the same time in 2009/2010 and have similar charges. Therefore, Ri Gwang Gun’s promotion could indicate a potential harmonizing of this competition.

Of course, the contours of this are difficult to see. Daepung, with stronger ties to the NDC, could be construed as taking over the JVIC from the top; perhaps the military has been able to exert itself to make sure that in the new leadership era, it does not get shut out of the investment game. (JVIC has become the more active and influential of the two groups.)

It could also be seen as a victory for JVIC, with Daepung being left to crumble and the top talent from that group being brought across. It remains to be seen if there will be some kind of exodus from either group.

Perhaps, also, it is some kind of compromise and a merger of sorts, with competing groups of elites ‘buying in’ to a unified system of investment management under the JVIC brand. They may see this as a way to increase effectiveness, avoid the negative outcomes of unfettered intra-elite competition and therefore encourage stability overall.

In February 2011 I posted reports that the DPRK’s west coast was experiencing record-low temperatures and the ports were frozen. Unfortunately for the North Korean people, history is repeating itself.

Pictured above (Yonhap): two satellite images of the DPRK’s west coast

According to the Donga Ilbo:

North Korea`s fisheries and shipping industries, two key earners of foreign currency for Pyongyang, have effectively been shackled due to a prolonged cold wave that has frozen waters in the Yellow Sea.
With the temperature reaching minus 10 degrees Celsius for more than a month, more than 40 kilometers of sea water in the Yellow Sea off the North`s coast have been frozen. This is the first time in decades that about 200 kilometers of the North`s coastline from the mouth of the Yalu River to the North`s Hwanghae provinces have been frozen.

Experts say the frozen water will not only affect the North’s fisheries and shipping industries, both of which are major earners of U.S. dollars, but also the Stalinist country`s economy and newly launched Kim Jong Un administration.

Massive ice blocks cover 200 kilometers of N. Korean coastline

In Seoul, the Korea Center for Atmospheric Environment Research and the Korea Meteorological Administration said Thursday that based on analysis of satellite images, massive ice 40 kilometers wide was detected in North Korean coastlines spanning 40 kilometers from the mouth of the Yalu River to coastal waters off Pyongyang.

According to the analysis, Korea Bay located in between the North’s Cholsan and Changyon peninsulas has remained frozen since Jan. 10 due to the cold wave. Coastal waters of Unryul County in South Hwanghae Province, the Chongchon River flowing into Korea Bay, and the port of Nampo at the mouth of the Daedong River running through Pyongyang are also covered with ice.

Chung Yong-seung, director of the environmental think tank, said, “In the past, waters off the North Korean coast used to be frozen. But the formation of such large-scale ice is unprecedented.”

Experts blame arctic ice moving south due to global warming for the ice formation.

North Korea has been hit by a severe cold snap this winter. According to the South Korean weather agency, the North’s average temperature last month was minus 8.4 degrees, 0.7 degrees lower than in an average year.

The Chosun Shinbo, the official newspaper of the pro-Pyongyang Federation of Korean Residents in Japan, recently said, “Temperatures in Pyongyang remained below zero from Dec. 23 last year through Jan. 31, the most extreme cold since 1945,” adding, “North Koreans can even walk on the Daedong River.”

Temperatures in the North fell further this month to minus 11.1 degrees on average, down 4.6 degrees from an average year.

Big burden on N. Korean gov

The ice formation in North Korean waters is pressuring the Kim Jong Un administration economically, experts said. The combined share of fisheries and agriculture in the North`s GDP is 20.8 percent, eight times higher than for South Korea (2.6 percent). Fisheries also play a key role in sustaining the North`s economy with catch volume reaching 630,000 tons a year.

Pyongyang`s dollar earnings have also been hit hard due to the frozen sea that has prevented fishing boats from leaving ports. Goh Yoo-hwan, head of the (South)Korean Association of North Korean Studies, said, “The North should export primary products such as fisheries goods, but no fishing operations due to the frozen water will take a huge toll on the North`s dollar earrings.”

Waters near China’s Liaodong Bay and Russia’s Vladivostok have also been frozen, causing the North’s maritime transportation to go awry. Due to soured inter-Korean relations, the North`s trade with the South and Japan has declined and raised the Stalinist country’s dependence on China to 56.9 percent.

Kim Yong-hyeong, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, said, “If the ice formation in waters wreaks havoc on the North’s maritime transportation, this will destabilize the North Korean economy.”

The problem is that ice at sea is growing thicker. The National Meteorological Satellite Center in Seoul said the boundaries between ice blocks and waters in the North’s section of the Yellow Sea were vague last month, but grew clear this month with ice getting thicker.

Director Chung of the environmental think tank said, “Given North Korea’s weather conditions, the ice in the sea will grow thicker through early next month,” adding, “North Korean society will be hit hard if its fisheries and shipping industries are grounded for more than two months.”

And just how productive is the DPRK’s fishing sector?  According to Yonhap:

Chung Yong-seung, head of the research institute, said it is rare for the port to freeze two winters in a row, a development he said could have a negative impact on the North’s fishing industry.

North Korea’s catch reached 663,000 metric tons in 2009, the latest year for which statistics are available, according to the South Korean government data.

Read the full reports here:
N. Korea’s largest port frozen for 2 straight winters
Yonhap
2012-2-10

Extended cold wave freezes key NK sectors of fisheries, shipping
Donga Ilbo
2012-2-10

Pictured above: (L) A Google Earth satellite image of the face of Mt. Sokda (석다산) before it was “blessed” with the Kim Jong-il commemorative carving (Coordinates:  39.180907°, 125.361290°) (R) A photo from KCNA of the new carving.

According to KCNA:

Pyongyang, February 8 (KCNA) — Letters “Peerless Patriot General Kim Jong Il. February 16, Juche 101 (2012)” were carved on natural rock in Mt. Sokda, Jungsan County, South Phyongan Province on the 70th anniversary of his birth.

The total length of the letters is 120 meters with his name 10 meters high, 5.5 meters wide and 1.4 meters deep. Other letters are 8.5 meters high, 4.8 meters wide and 0.9 meters deep.

Officials and working people in South Phyongan Province chose the rock that is easily visible, reflecting the ardent desire of the people
around the country to exalt his immortal revolutionary feats forever.

An unveiling ceremony took place on Wednesday.

Present there were Kim Ki Nam, Choe Thae Bok, Yang Hyong Sop officials concerned, party members and other working people in the county and helpers.

There are of course many carvings like this in the DPRK. Here is one of my “favorite” examples.

UPDATE 1: The Daily NK has more. See below:

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Pictured above: the DPRK’s two CNC plants mentioned in the post below. (L) Ryonha Factory in Pyongyang, (R) Ryonha Factory in Huichon

From the Choson Exchange web page:

The company that is tasked with producing and selling CNC is Ryonha, through its subsidiary, Unsan. The company had a booth at the recent International Trade Fair in Rason, held in North Korea’s Special Economic Zone in the far Northeast, bordering Russia and China. Their booth was staffed by a Vice President and – as one might expect – attracted lots of attention from the locals in attendance.

The president claimed annual exports of 30,000,000 euros to Europe, South America and South East Asia. He didn’t have exact details on profits, but mentioned that Unsan imported 10,000,000 euro worth of parts, mostly from Europe, such as control units and electronic relays Siemens and Arno. Their main CNC factory is 40,000 sq. meters and the “biggest in the world” according to the manager. They have two facilities, one in Pyongyang and one in Jagang with 12,000 employees in total. They want to open a factory in Rason, ideally without investors. Prices were said to be: 150,000 EUR for a European made CNC machine but only 52,000 EUR for an equivalent machine made in the DPRK, with the “same quality”.

Unfortunately for Ryonha, it seems to be a subsidiary of the Korea Ryonbong General Corporation, which is under UN sanctions as a WMD proliferator. This no doubt impacts Ryonha’s ability to market itself to customers abroad. Ryonha also doesn’t seem to have a website, which can’t help, either.

Should Ryonha’s parent corporation be taken off the UN’s list of designated proliferators, it will find easier access to a global CNC market that was $6.1 billion in 2007, before the financial crisis hit. The market has contracted since then, as the crisis left a global glut in inventory in 2009, which has taken well into 2011 to clear. The sharply reduced demand, particularly from automakers, has made the CNC market particularly competitive, though a sustained economic recovery would eventually drag the industry back up to pre-crisis levels.

It’s difficult to know what kind of impact Ryonha might have on the global CNC industry, as customers and vendors alike are probably reluctant to trumpet where their machines are made. One of the effects of sanctions has been that companies try to hide their tracks when conducting business with the DPRK, even when the industry is unrelated to sanctioned items. This is sometimes done through an extra layer (or two) of outsourced contracts, or with textiles, sometimes just label-switching. This is tough to do with bigger machines, of course, leaving North Korean CNC machines facing perhaps understandable prejudices.

Its impact on the domestic market will be more significant, of course, reducing the need to spend hard currency on imported CNC machines from China and elsewhere. Perhaps then, this import substitution will allow the DPRK to use that unspent capital on projects that actually benefit the daily lives of its citizens.

Read the full post here.

According to the Daily NK:

At the beginning of last month, the North Korean authorities ordered local commercial management offices to strengthen oversight to ensure that products were being sold at official state prices, according to a source from Shinuiju on February 6th.

Meeting with Daily NK on a visit to Dandong, China, the source explained, “Friction has started up again between market managers and traders because of orders at the start of the year to make sure that everything is sold at the state-designated price. They do this every year, but this year they are confiscating products and transferring them for sale in state stores.”

Price-related orders are issued annually in North Korea, where the authorities are still reluctant to countenance market price autonomy despite fifteen years of ad hoc marketization. As such, the Ministry of Procurement and Food Policy sets the prices of key goods and posts them at the entrance to markets. These prices are approximately uniform across the country.

Only ‘regional’ items being treated differently; prices for these items are set by pricing bureaus established under provincial People’s Committees. Most obviously, the state price of seafood is cheaper in coastal areas than in inland parts of the country.

However, real price differentials make selling at these state prices untenable; for example, the market price of a kilo of rice in Shinuiju is currently hovering around 3,200 won, while that for corn is 2,200 won, yet the state prices are 1,600 won and 690 won respectively. Therefore, traders traditionally simply pretend to sell at state prices when inspectors turn up, before resuming trade at market prices once they have left.

But the problem this year is that enforcement is stricter than usual, with illegally priced products being confiscated, transferred directly to state stores and sold at state prices. According to the source, “In the past state prices were only symbolic and inspectors didn’t enforce them. Even if they confiscated something you could pay them a little and get it back. But now they are just selling those products directly at state prices, so a lot of people who have ignored the crackdowns are ending up in a real fix.”

Not only that. “People who are caught like this are banned from trading from a stall for a month,” the source added. “Traders are reacting very carefully now as a result.”

However, history has taught traders that the crackdown is unlikely to last too long, and anticipate a return to less strict oversight in due course.

Read the full story here:
Annual Market Crackdown Ensnaring the Careless
Daily NK
Park Jun Hyeong and Jeong Jae Sung
2012-2-7