North Korean Economy Watch

Korea Times
David Kang
9/21/2007

There has been widespread speculation as to why, after repeated calls for a summit by South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, Kim Jong-il decided to meet at this time.

Some have argued that Kim is only meeting because of improved U.S.-North Korean relations. Others feel that Kim hopes to gain further aid and trade from South Korea.

Although we do not know the exact reasons, one possibility is that Kim sees two major elections looming on the horizon: the South Korean and U.S. presidential elections.

A summit provides Kim the opportunity to influence these elections. Were Kim to wait until there were new presidents in both countries, his influence on the new presidents’ goals and strategies would be minimized.

As to South Korea, it is quite likely that Kim Jong-il hopes be an influence by presenting a moderate and reasonable image of himself.

Indeed, if Kim can speak the right rhetoric and portray himself as flexible, make a few token concessions to increased economic or social exchanges with South Korea, and repeats rhetoric about “uri minjok ggiri (we, Koreans, by ourselves),” there is a good chance that many South Koreans will feel reassured and sentiment favoring engagement may solidify.

This would be a good chance of binding the next South Korean administration into continuing its engagement with the North, regardless of who actually wins the presidency.

As for the United States, Kim has less ability to influence the election, simply because Americans pay far less attention to North Korea than they do to other foreign policy issues, such as the continuing troubles in the Middle East.

However, if Kim can present a moderate face, and also help forge a solid consensus in South Korea about the best way to solve the North Korean problem, Kim may be hoping to bind any new U.S. president to a path of reconciliation, as well.

Indeed, many observers think that Kim has already won, simply by agreeing to a summit meeting with Roh. Especially with Roh so clearly hoping to cement his place in history with this summit, they fear that there is little that Kim can do that would harm his image in South Korea.

However, if Kim hopes to be an influence on the presidential election in the south, this presents a genuine opportunity to further expose Kim to pressures and influences of the outside world, which is a move in the right direction.

For decades, the North Korean leadership had only concerned itself with internal regime politics, and even ignored the voices and needs of its own citizens.

If Kim realizes that his image among the South Korean public will have a direct effect on his own rule, this may affect his actions and policies.

In this way, Kim is taking more of a gamble by agreeing to a summit than is generally recognized.

If South Korean sentiment turns against Kim after the summit, this will restrict the new South Korean president’s foreign policy options, and it will also make it harder for Kim to delay, obstruct and avoid dealing with nuclear and other issues.

As such, Roh has more leverage than generally believed, if he is adroit in his negotiations.
If Roh goes into the summit determined to come away with some agreement with the North, he will have no bargaining power whatsoever, and Kim will win. But if Kim is seen by the South Koreans as the one obstructing progress, it will make North Korea’s situation more difficult in the future.

Thus, Roh absolutely must go into the summit prepared to return empty-handed. Only when Roh is prepared to walk away, will he have any leverage on Kim.

Roh must be willing to confront Kim on serious issues, such as the nuclear issue, and press Kim to make a public statement that he supports denuclearization. Ironically, Roh’s reputation may even improve if he can show that he met Kim with a flexible and reasonable set of issues and options.

Roh must also pay attention to not only the public opinion of South Koreans but also the U.S, and in particular the policymakers inside Washington.

Roh needs to realize that managing expectations and framing the summit in a positive way is critical for him to be seen in Washington as enhancing, and not obstructing, the nuclear negotiations.

There is little chance that Washington will allow Roh to set the agenda for denuclearization, as revealed in the embarrassing episode at the recent APEC meeting.

If Roh wanders too far from Washington’s stance, he will not have Washington comply, but rather he will merely be left alone.

Thus, it is critical that Roh and Cheong Wa Dae pay as much attention to how the summit is viewed in Washington as how it is viewed in South Korea.

I am in favor of this summit, only because it further exposes Kim to South Korean public sentiment, and increases the leverage the outside world has on this reclusive regime.

I hope that Roh does not squander his opportunity to further draw out the North Korean leadership and expose them to the outside world.

Daily NK
Kim Chan Ku
Institute for Far Eastern Studies
9/19/2007

(UPDATE: On Oct. 23, [2008] the State Department blacklisted two North Korean companies, Korea Mining Development Corp. and Korea Taesong Trading Co., for violating U.S. bans on the sale of equipment used in building missiles or other weapons of mass destruction to Iran and Syria. Citation: “North Korean Plane Was Grounded at U.S. Request “, Wall Street Journal, Jay Solomon, 11/1/2008 )

Kimchaek boasts one of the largest steel factories and fishing ports in North Korea especially that of Daesung General Company’s east coast headquarters.

However, at once-famous seaport everything including ship, freezer, packing factory was obsolete and rust. Most of the Soviet-built machines in factories were at least 20 to 30 years old. And there were neither enough spare parts to fix machinery nor job orders, so the factories had stood still for a long time.

I consulted with local North Korean officials in Kimchaek and reached an agreement: ship repair dock will be built in Kimchaek, steel products necessary for building floating dock would be Daesung General Company’s responsibility, and other issues concerning building land factory and management of joint-stock company would be decided in Pyongyang.

Also we finished negotiation over fish export and Pollack fishing by trawler. Thus basic problems were solved.

I came back to Pyongyang on September 30. And another businessperson, Mr. Kim Sung Chan of Pamco Trading, told me his will to invest fifty percent of the capital.

All of sudden, Daesung General Company notified us that among our previous agreements, only the site of repair dock was decided and asked us to wait, promising final decision would delivered in one month.

To start first phase of building factories, it was most critical to have steel products ordered from state. We believed the promise from the North (to take responsibility of providing iron plates) and returned to America.  However, after two month had passed, there was no news from Pyongyang. Curious, I called back and was told to visit North Korea as soon as possible.

On December 9, 1989 I arrived at Sun An International Airport. In Pyongyang, vice president of Daesung General Company (president was absent, traveling abroad) said “we asked the state for iron plates, but production plan was omitted in 1990 fiscal year so one more year of waiting is inevitable, or send us steel plates.”

In other words, our business plan was totally embarrassed and we had to make a new one.  Again, I conferred with Mr. Kim and found out a solution, which was to buy a used floating dock from an American port. There was a fifty-year old used floating dock in Miami, Florida that we were able to buy. If repaired, it seemed available for another twenty years.

Finally, two obstacles had our plan failed. Firstly, it was supposed take at least three month and five hundred thousands US dollars (twice the price of dock) to convey the floating dock by sea. Secondly, (and more fundamental problem) the US government would not permit to sell the dock to North Korea. We were not even possible to transport the dock to Hong Kong and then to North Korea.

Because acquisition of required steel plate for floating dock was failed ultimately, the daring business had gone nowhere. Wasted much money and more than a year of time, I was so depressed at that time[.]

Bloomberg (h/t One Free Korea)
Bomi Lim
9/19/2007

North Korea was dropped from the U.S. list of countries producing illicit drugs, a sign of further relief of tensions between the two countries.

“North Korea is not affecting the United States as much as the requirements on the list,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christy McCampbell said on Sept. 17 in Washington, according to a transcript of her speech on the State Department Web site.

Ties are improving between the U.S. and North Korea after a February agreement on ending the government in Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. As North Korea moves to scale back the program, the U.S. has promised to review ways of improving ties with the communist country, including removing it from a list of states that sponsor terrorism.

North Korea agreed to a year-end deadline to disclose and disable its nuclear facilities after it shut down and sealed its sole operating reactor at Yongbyon in July.

North Korea was first mentioned in the annual presidential report on “major illegal drug transit and drug-producing countries” in 2003, when President George W. Bush said the U.S. would fight the country’s suspected drug trafficking.

Yonhap
9/13/2007

The United States is preparing to provide heavy fuel oil to North Korea as part of incentives it pledged for Pyongyang’s denuclearization, the State Department said Thursday.

Sean McCormack, the department spokesman, said the notification this week to Congress of such intent was “done with an eye towards” North Korea fulfilling its commitments.

“What it does is, it prepares us in the case we do need to fulfill some commitments” on the part of the U.S., he said.

South and North Korea, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan are members of the so-called six-party talks that in February struck an agreement to eventually dismantle Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and programs. The communist state would receive in return political and economic benefits, including diplomatic normalization with Washington and Tokyo.

One of the economic incentives is 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil to be provided by the five parties. South Korea already delivered 50,000 tons as North Korea shut down its primary nuclear facilities, fulfilling the first phase of the denuclearization deal.

The second phase requires North Korea to disable the facilities and declare all of its nuclear stockpile.

Reuters reported Wednesday that the U.S. administration sent the legislative notification this week, saying it was prepared to give North Korea US$25 million in heavy fuel oil.

According to the document cited by Reuters, the administration deems the initial progress in the six-party talks “sufficient justification to begin preparations for a first shipment by the United States.”

McCormack said while there is preparation, the actual aid is still predicate on North Korea’s fulfillment of its promises.

“If North Korea does in fact follow through on their commitments as stated under the understanding of that phase two commitment, then the other parties have some commitments,” he said. “This would be part of the U.S. fulfilling that commitment, although it’s not done yet.”

After a bilateral nuclear deal in 1994 between Pyongyang and Washington, the U.S. had annually shipped 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil to the North as energy assistance. The shipment was stopped after the U.S. accused North Korea in 2002 of cheating by running a secret uranium-based weapons program.

Washington Post
Steven Goff
9/11/2007

CHENGDU, China, Sept. 11 — North Korea wrested a tie from the heavily favored United States women’s soccer team in the opening round of the World Cup Tuesday night, scoring two goals within four minutes after an injury to a star U.S. forward left the Americans with just 10 players on the field.

U.S. Coach Greg Ryan elected to play shorthanded in anticipation of star striker Abby Wambach returning later in the game. Wambach did return, but only after the Americans lost their one-goal lead and fell behind, 2-1.

In the 69th minute, Heather O’Reilly ripped a perfectly placed shot to the upper corner to salvage a 2-2 tie before 35,100 spectators on a rainy night at Chengdu Sports Center Stadium.

The U.S. team — which has never finished worse than third in four previous World Cups — will face 2003 runner-up Sweden here Friday and play African champion Nigeria next Tuesday in its Group B finale. The top two finishers in that group will advance to the quarterfinals.

Despite their status as the tournament favorite, the Americans learned very quickly that Tuesday’s match was not going to be easy.

Ryan offered a mild surprise in his starting lineup, moving left back Stephanie Lopez — at age 21,the team’s youngest player — into the midfield and playing with only three defenders. There had been speculation that he might also use two forwards instead of the usual three to offset North Korea’s midfield strengths, but on this night, Ryan stuck with his dangerous trio of Wambach, O’Reilly and Kristine Lilly.

The North Koreans adapted better than the Americans to the wet conditions, using their technical skill to take the early initiative and mount a steady attack. An early shot on goal skipped wide in the opening minute, and a long ball out of the back forced U.S. goalkeeper Hope Solo to come off her line and smother the ball before a Korean forward could make contact.

The Americans then began to find their footing and put pressure on North Korea’s keeper. Lori Chalupny poked an eight-yard attempt wide, O’Reilly created space on the left side of the penalty area and Cat Whitehill pounded three free kicks from distance into the box.

In the 26th minute, Korean midfielder Ri Un Suk nearly broke the scoreless deadlock with a 25-yard shot that streaked fractionally wide of the left post. Thirteen minutes later, Kim Yong Ae, who had replaced the injured Ho Sun Hui midway through the half, sent a glancing header just beyond the left corner.

The best threat, however, belonged to the Americans as Wambach headed Lopez’s corner kick off the crossbar and Lilly’s rebound bid was deflected wide.

Intermission arrived without a goal. But in the second half, the match opened up.

The Americans went ahead in the 50th minute when Lilly supplied a superb pass to Wambach clear on the right side of the box. Wambach’s 14-yard attempt had just enough pace and direction to skip off goalkeeper Jon Myong Hui’s hands and fall into the far corner of the net. It was her 78th goal in 97 international appearances.

After Lilly sent a 20-yard free kick just wide of the left post, the match took a wild and unexpected turn.

Wambach bumped heads with a Korean player and suffered a cut in the back of her head. Wambach had to leave the game with blood pouring from her head. She headed toward the locker room for repairs, and had just passed behind the U.S. bench when the Koreans struck for the 58th-minute equalizer.

Solo was in proper position to handle Kil Son Hui’s rising 22-yard shot, but let the ball slide between her wet gloves and drop into the net.

Things continued to unravel for the Americans when, in the 62nd minute, Kim Yong Ae took advantage of a wayward U.S. clearance and slid a 12-yard shot into the far corner, putting the Koreans ahead and sparking a wild celebration on the field and in the stands.

Wambach returned two minutes later, bringing the U.S. team back to full strength. In the 69th minute, Lilly’s cross was deflected twice to O’Reilly, who stung a 10-yarder into the top far corner.

Solo made amends for her earlier gaffe with a spectacular diving save on a laser shot by Ri Un Gyong. In a pregame news conference, FIFA President Joseph “Sepp” Blatter expressed concern about the lopsided result of Monday’s tournament opener — an 11-0 victory by Germany over Argentina — and the ramifications it might have on the organizing body’s decision on whether to expand the field to 24 teams from 16 in 2011.

“Definitely, I did not like this result,” he said. “This is not good when we look forward to the future to perhaps have 24 teams.”

However, in response to a follow-up question, Blatter added: “It’s only the first match. For us, it will be good if we can open this competition because in 1995 I said the future of football is feminine and it is still feminine.”

FIFA (the International Federation of Association Football) will decide this fall whether to expand the field and also determine the host country for the 2011 tournament. Canada, Germany, Australia and Peru are the top candidates, Blatter said.

Korea Herald
Lee Joo-hee
9/11/2007

Informal exchanges between the United States and North Korea are thriving against the backdrop of maturing nuclear negotiations at the six-party talks, news reports said yesterday.

The exchanges vary from invitations to cultural and sports events, to a sightseeing tour in the United States by North Korean officials.

North Korea invited the New York Philharmonic Orchestra last month to play in Pyongyang. The renowned orchestra is yet to accept the offer, but the U.S. State Department has already said that it was up to them to make the decision, despite the embargo on travel and trade with the North.

Washington has also approved a tour around the capital city by the members and families of North Korean U.N. representatives this past weekend. The North Korean diplomats were usually restricted from traveling outside New York City.

A North Korean Taekwondo sports team is set to compete in exhibition matches in the United States next month.

The string of events is in stark contrast to just a year ago, when the North’s missile test in July chilled relations between the United States and North Korea.

Back then, bilateral contacts with the communist regime were still taboo under President George W. Bush’s policy.

With progress in the six-party talks, the cultural and informal exchanges appear to be flourishing hand-in-hand with increasing political exchanges, the reports said.

The latest progress on the nuclear front is the arrival of a U.S. delegation headed by Sung Kim, deputy chief of the U.S. negotiating team to the nuclear talks. He arrived in Seoul yesterday before starting a five-day trip to the North to discuss disabling the North’s nuclear facilities.

In the meantime, three North Korean boxers are to participate in the World Boxing Championships opening in Chicago next month — for the first time in over 10 years.

An information and human resources exchange program between Syracuse University of the United States and Kim Chaek University of Technology of North Korea also resumed recently. The program was halted following Pyongyang’s nuclear test last October. Upon the resumption, the United States reportedly approved a three-month visa for North Korean officials this month, compared to a 10-day visa in the past.

In February, the American Association for the Advancement of Science hosted an academic seminar with North Korean officials to discuss science and technology cooperation.

The United States and North Korea are currently discussing ways to normalize diplomatic relations in return for the North’s nuclear disablement as part of the denuclearization agreement reached at the six-party talks.

Korea Herald
9/5/2007

A Boeing 747 carrying 75 tons of emergency relief goods worth $8 million arrived in Pyongyang last week by a direct flight from the United States, while denuclearization talks between the two countries were making progress in Geneva.

Officials here say it was the first time that a full planeload of U.S. emergency relief materials were delivered to North Korea since Pyongyang began accepting private U.S. donations in the mid-1990s after severe floods hit the country. The airlift, provided by Samaritan’s Purse, a North Carolina-based Christian charity organization, consisted of medicine, medical supplies, antibiotics, temporary shelter materials and other items needed for the relief of flood victims.

U.S. transport authorities gave their permission for what was known as “the first direct flight from continental U.S. to North Korea since the Korean War.” Airlifted supplies included goods purchased with a $50,000 grant from the U.S. government, according to a press release from Samaritan’s Purse, currently represented by Franklin Graham, son of the late evangelist Billy Graham. A dispatch from the (North) Korean Central News Agency said Pyongyang’s Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun met the American visitors who delivered the relief materials.

The American charity group’s swift, large-scale delivery of emergency aid was a noteworthy gesture of friendship, shown in response to the disastrous floods last month. After years of extreme antagonism over the North’s nuclear armament, such a people-to-people exchange of goodwill is inspiring.

The Graham family has special relations with North Korea: Billy Graham’s wife, Ruth Bell, attended Pyongyang Foreign School in the 1930s, Billy Graham visited North Korea twice in the 1990s and other family members traveled to the country in recent years. At a time when diplomatic relations are being explored between the two countries, such personal ties can prove valuable in promoting mutual understanding. Many hope “swords into ploughshares” will not remain a biblical prophecy.

Yonhap
8/31/2007

North Korea’s foreign minister Friday met with a U.S. delegation bringing emergency medical supplies to help North Korean victims of recent floods, the North’s official news outlet said.

The reclusive country has appealed to the international community for assistance to cope with massive flooding caused by heavy downpours that left at least 600 people dead or missing and about 100,000 people homeless in early August. The United Nations is seeking US$14 million to provide North Korea with food, medicine, drinking water and other emergency goods.

“Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun met with guests from the United States who visited with emergency medical aid equipment donated by the U.S. administration and the non-governmental organization Samaritan’s Purse with regard to flood damage at the Mansudae Assembly hall,” said the one-sentence report carried by the Korean Central News Agency. It did not identify the U.S. guests.

Washington has so far pledged US$100,000 for the U.N. initiative, equally distributing the funds to two non-governmental relief organizations, Mercy Corps and Samaritan’s Purse, to deliver emergency aid to North Korea.

The heaviest rain in 40 years swept North Korea, which is poorly equipped to cope amid wide-spread deforestation. The severe damage caused the second inter-Korean summit to be postponed from late August to early October.

Joong Ang Daily
Jin Se-keun
8/27/2007

A U.S. orchestra may visit North Korea while Pyongyang sends its own orchestra to the United States, an official of a Hong Kong-based company said yesterday.

Bae Kyeong-hwan, vice president of Daepung Investment Group, told the JoongAng Ilbo that his company has been authorized by the North’s Culture Minister, Kang Neung-su, to schedule and plan the events.

“We contacted the New York Philharmonic orchestra first, but if its schedule does not permit, the Boston Philharmonic or the Philadelphia Philharmonic could be an option,” Bae said.

The New York Philharmonic earlier confirmed that it has been invited to visit North Korea, but has not yet made an official decision.

After a performance in Pyongyang, the U.S. orchestra may return via South Korea, crossing the inter-Korean border at Panmunjeom Village, Bae said.

The North’s National Symphony Orchestra will then return the visit by going to the United States for a performance, according to Bae.

He claimed that negotiations for these reciprocal visits have been worked out by Christopher Hill, Washington’s chief negotiator to the six-party talks, and his North Korean counterpart Kim Gye-gwan.  

North invites the New York Philharmonic
Joong Ang Daily
Brian Lee
8/16/2007

It’s up to the New York Philharmonic orchestra to decide whether it will accept an invitation to perform in North Korea, a U.S. State Department spokesman said Tuesday.

“We’ll consider it,” Eric Latzky, the orchestra’s director of public relations, told Agence France Press. “We received an invitation to perform in Pyongyang through an independent representative on behalf of the ministry of culture of North Korea.”

Latzky said the request, which had just been received, was “unusual” and that the orchestra would consult with Washington before making any decision. Furthermore, Latzky said, any such visit would come as part of a tour in the region.

The Philharmonic is scheduled to play in China in February 2008.

When asked whether such a visit was feasible, U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said, “I think it’d be fully up to them whether or not they accept such an invitation. As for the details of being able to go there and whether there’s any compensation, that sort of thing, those are probably technical details.”

Financial sanctions and restrictions regarding arms, missile and nuclear technology are in place under a United Nations resolution adopted last year in the aftermath of a nuclear test by the North, but there are no restrictions on travel to the North by ordinary U.S. citizens.

But despite the symbolic meaning the orchestra’s visit could have, McCormack said he suspected it would only play for Pyongyang’s elite. “Whether or not your average North Korean gets an invitation if the New York Philharmonic’s in Pyongyang, I have my doubts about that.”

North Korea interested in inviting New York Philharmonic
Korea Herald
8/13/2007

North Korea has shown interest in inviting the New York Philharmonic to perform in its capital, Pyongyang, apparently as part of its efforts to improve ties with the United States, sources here said Sunday, according to Yonhap News Agency.

During a meeting of six-party nuclear disarmament talks in Beijing in July, U.S. envoy Christopher Hill met his North Korean counterpart, Kim Kye-gwan, and proposed that the two countries start civilian exchanges as part of confidence-building measures, said the sources who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Kim responded positively, saying that his government has already thought about such exchanges and would be interested in inviting the New York Philharmonic, according to the sources.

Eric Latzky, spokesman for the New York-based philharmonic, told Yonhap News Agency that he was unaware of any invitation by the North but said discussions were under way with South Korea for a performance tour there.

AFP
8/17/2007

The United States is providing 100,000 dollars in humanitarian aid to flood-stricken North Korea, the State Department said Friday.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) would provide 50,000 dollars each to two US non governmental organizations operating in North Korea — Mercy Corps and Samaritan’s Purse, department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

“The intention is that the money would be used to provide blankets, shelter materials, water containers and other supplies to those in need,” he told reporters.

Almost 300 people were dead or missing in the North Korean floods, according to an aid agency quoting official figures in the nuclear-armed hardline communist nation.

Official media in the reclusive state has painted a grim picture of inundated crops and homes, flooded factories and mines and washed-out roads.

UN agencies said on Friday that half of North Korea’s main health centres have been submerged by floods and warned that the situation in the country could deteriorate unless aid arrives rapidly.

The United States, together with China, Russia, Japan and South Korea, have promised to provide the North Koreans aid and security and diplomatic guarantees if it scraps its nuclear weapons program.

But any flood relief provided by the United States would not be linked to a planned gradual shipment of one million tonnes of fuel or its equivalent to North Korea if it completely dismantles its nuclear weapons program, McCormack had said.

North Korea has already got 50,000 tonnes of fuel aid for closure of its key nuclear reactor under the six-party nuclear talks.