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The DPRK food situation: Too early to break out the champagne

Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Asia Pacific Bulletin
No. 27, February 5, 2009

Abstract
North Korea has suffered chronic hunger problems for two decades. A famine in the 1990s killed up to one million people and shortages have remained endemic. Most observers believe that the recent harvest is the best in years, but even under optimistic scenarios, food-related distress is likely to continue. Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland discuss North Korea’s current food situation and the prospects for the future.

Download the full paper in PDF here.

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Food, Foreign aid statistics, Public Distribiution System (PDS), Statistics, UN, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program, UNDP, USA | Comments Closed

DPRK agriculture update

Thursday, January 15th, 2009

On May 12, 2008, The DPRK formally asked the UN World Food Program for emergency food assistance. In June 2008, the UN WFP/FAO launched the “Rapid Food Security Assessment”. They confirmed…

…a significant deterioration in food security in most parts of the country.3 Close to three quarters of respondents have reduced their food intake, over half are reportedly eating only two meals per day (down from three) and dietary diversity is extremely poor among two thirds of the surveyed population. Most families have daily consumption consisting of only of maize, vegetables and wild foods, a diet lacking protein, fats and micronutrients.

and

FAO forecasts that the October/November 2008 harvest will be 70-75 percent of an average year’s output due to inadequate fertilizer supplies, meaning the current food shortages will extend into the next agricultural year. The risk that the country will again suffer summer flooding remains, which could lead to further crop destruction and/or require general food distributions of emergency food aid. In such an event, WFP will have contingency stocks available in the country to rapidly respond. (UN Operations Report)

The UN launched a coordinated response lasting from September 2008-November 2009 which targets over 6 million people with 600,000 metric tons of food assistance.

But according to the Daily NK (Jan 13, 2009):

According to North Korean authorities, the total agricultural yield including rice, corn, potatoes and others reached its highest point since the food shortages of the 1990s this year, at 4.7 million tons.

According to the Joongang Ilbo, a South Korean newspaper, a Chinese official involved in the agricultural business who had just gotten back from North Korea quoted a North Korean official as saying that they “had presumed the failure of last year’s harvest due to low temperatures in the Spring and Fall, but in fact recorded the highest level in recent years, 4.7 million tons.”

Regarding this, a researcher from the Korea Rural Economic Institute, Kwon Tae Jin said in a telephone conversation with the Daily NK that, “When I visited Pyongyang in December of last year, Ri Il Sok, Director of the Foreign Cooperation Team in the North Korean Ministry of Agriculture said to me that grain output last year was 4.67 million tons, up by 17 percent over a year ago.” (Daily NK)

Andrei Lankov, writing in tomorrow’s Asia Times (Jan 16), confirms the Daily NK story:

These worries seemed well-founded and the journalists who penned them were often among the most knowledgeable on North Korean issues. Furthermore, most of these stories were based on reports produced by reputable international organizations. By early September, North Korean watchers agreed almost unanimously that a great disaster was set to strike North Korea this coming winter.

Now it has become clear, however, that these were false alarms. The predicted famine has not materialized and does not appear likely to do so in the near future. North Korea has had its best harvest in years, and until next summer no North Korean is likely to starve to death – although some may remain severely malnourished.

This is good news. However, the contrast between the reality and recent predictions is remarkably stark. In recent years, we have come to believe that there are at least a few things about secretive North Korea which are known for sure. Yet the recent turnaround of events has again shed light on the severe limits of outside information about the Hermit Kingdom.

Lankov offers a couple of scenarios that could explain how this happened:

For example, why did reputable international organizations make such a serious mistake in estimating the North’s food shortage? It cannot be ruled out that international observers were deliberately misled by their North Korean minders. Perhaps foreign observers were shown the worst fields because the North wanted more food aid then would otherwise be available?

It also seems that some basic assumptions about North Korean agriculture are wrong. Unless the 2008 harvest was the result of incredible luck, it seems to indicate that fertilizer is far less important than previously believed. It is possible that North Korean farmers have devised strategies to deal with fertilizer shortages.

The false alarms of a disastrous famine in North Korea are a sober reminder that when dealing with the world’s most secretive society, predictions should be treated with the greatest caution.

To learn more, read the following documents/stories:
Emergency Operation Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
Title: 10757.0 – Emergency Assistance to Population Groups Affected by Floods and Rising Food and Fuel Prices
UN World Food Program

2008 Agricultural Yield of North Korea
Daily NK
Kim So Yeol
1/13/2009

North Korea reaps a rich harvest
Asia Times
Andrei Lankov
1/16/2009

North Korean Economy Watch topic archives:
Food, Agriculture, Foreign Aid Statistics

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Food, Foreign aid statistics, Statistics, UN, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program | Comments Closed

Famine in North Korea Redux?

Monday, November 3rd, 2008

Peterson Institute Working Paper
WP 08 – October 2008
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland

Read the paper here

Abstract: In the 1990s, 600,000 to 1 million North Koreans, or about 3 to 5 percent of the precrisis population, perished in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. North Korea is once again poised on the brink of famine. Although the renewed provision of aid is likely to avert a disaster on the scale of the 1990s, hunger-related deaths are already occurring and a dynamic has been set in motion that will carry the crisis into 2009. North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency characterized by highly imperfect information. This paper triangulates quantity and price evidence with direct observation to assess food insecurity in North Korea and its causes. We critique the widely cited UN figures and present original data on grain quantities and prices. These data demonstrate that for the first time since the 1990s famine, the aggregate grain balance has gone into deficit. Prices have also risen steeply. The reemergence of pathologies from the famine era is documented through direct observation. Although exogenous shocks have played a role, foreign and domestic policy choices have been key.

Keywords: Famine, North Korea
JEL codes: Q1, O1, P2

Posted in 1990s Famine, Agriculture, Arduous March, Food, General markets (FMR: Farmers Market), Price liberalization, Public Distribiution System (PDS), UN, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program | 1 Comment »

(UPDATE)DPRK food update

Friday, October 24th, 2008

UPDATE 3: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland chime in with “Famine in North Korea Redux”.

UPDATE 2: IFES notes that Pyongyang is acknowledging the food shortage:

DPRK stressing unaided resolution to food crisis
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-10-24-1
10/24/2008

On October 22, the North Korean Workers’ Party newspaper, Rodong Shinmun, reported on the international food crisis, and stressed, ‘The only things we can trust in the face of today’s severe food crisis are the efforts and self sacrifice of our blood, sweat, and tears,’ emphasizing an autonomous resolution to the food problem.

According to the paper, Kim Jong Il stated, “Today in our country, the agricultural problem is a very important problem that must be decisively resolved in order to build a strong and prosperous socialist nation.”

In particular, the paper stressed the urgency of the food problems, reporting, “Rice and food are of the utmost importance, like a lifeline to us,” while admitting that fertilizer, agricultural chemicals, fuel, and other essential items were in short supply, but adding, “the basis of agricultural production is not physical conditions, but determination.” By emphasizing that ‘determination’ would be key to solving the problem was a way of indirectly admitting that the government did not have the means to provide the supplies necessary to increase agricultural output.

The tone of the article conveys the idea that as the food crisis worsens around the world, international food aid to North Korea is being reduced, causing the worsening of the food crisis in the DPRK. It would appear that the government is trying to calm the people’s discontent by blaming outside influences, while at the same time mobilizing the efforts of North Korean farm workers.

While all of North Korea’s media sources have been repeatedly reporting the current global food crisis, they have emphasized that most others do not have rice to give, and those that do are not giving it, so that the North’s domestic food shortages need to be resolved by the North Koreans themselves.

UPDATE: Jess adds some great statistics in the comments.

The Daily NK reports on the Ministry of Unification’s claims about the DPRK’s food situation.

ORIGINAL POST:We are getting some mixed messages on the state of the DPRK’s agricultural production and access to food….

Last month, IFES and the Daily NK reported that the DPRK was expecting a decent harvest this fall since the country’s farmlands were spared the seasonal flooding of the previous years:

A source involved in China-North Korea trade at a company in Shenyang was quoted on the 30th as saying, “[North Korean] rice traders are expecting this year’s food production to be considerably improved compared to last year,” and, “This year, with no large natural disasters, rice paddies and crop fields are doing well, and crop production will probably be much greater than last year.”

In a related matter, one North Korean insider reported, “With the [North Korean] food situation, no one is doing as well as the wholesalers,” and, “As the fall harvest season has come, traders have come by farms in each province and reported that rice and corn harvests are very good.”

The source went on to say, “This year, farming was not difficult, so as autumn passes, the market price of rice looks likely to fall. The price of corn will fall even faster, hitting the 1000 won per kilogram level by mid October.” In fact, by the end of this year’s fall harvest, the price of food is expected to return to pre-shock levels. Currently, rice is selling for 2200 won and corn for 1300 won per kilogram in North Korean markets. (IFES)

This week, however, the UN World Food Program sent the opposite signal, highlighting the acute food shortages they are seeing:

The UN food agency said Thursday that millions of North Koreans face a food crisis, but a South Korean official said that Seoul has not decided whether to respond to a request for food aid to the communist country.

“Some areas of the northeastern provinces in the country … have become extremely vulnerable, facing a situation of a humanitarian emergency,” Jean-Pierre de Margerie, the WFP’s country director for North Korea, said at a forum on North Korea.

Around 2.7 million people on North Korea’s west coast will also run out of food in October, the WFP said in a report released Tuesday.

The food shortages have forced many North Koreans to go to hills to collect wild food to complement their daily rations and reduce the number of meals per day to two, said de Margerie.

Asked if North Koreans face starvation, he said his agency hasn’t seen any evidence of starvation but said, “We have reached (a) very critical level and we shouldn’t wait for another starvation before ringing the alarm bells.”

The WFP also said the food shortages have especially affected urban households in areas with low industrial activity due to higher food prices, reductions in public food rations and lower employment.

Donor countries should back us up … Now is (the) time to act,” de Margerie said. (AP via New Zealand’s 3 News)

According to another report in the Times of London:

On Tuesday, WFP announced that some 2.7 million people on North Korea’s west coast will run out of food in October, and that, because of the worsening food situation, it was increasing from 1.9 million to 6.5 million the population which it seeks to help with food aid.

“Some areas of the north-eastern provinces in the country have become extremely vulnerable, facing a situation of a humanitarian emergency,” the organisation’s programme director for North Korea said. “We have reached a very critical level and we shouldn’t wait for another starvation before ringing the alarm bells.”

Additionally, UN’s point man on North Korean human rights, Vitit Muntarbhorn, has gone so far as to claim North Korea is clamping down on mobile phones and long distance telephone calls to prevent the spread of news about a worsening food crisis (Times of London).

The South Korean Ministry of Unification, however, is publicly disputing the UNWFP’s numbers:

A South Korean official has disputed the U.N.’s assessment that millions of North Koreans are at risk of food shortages, saying Friday that the impoverished communist country does not appear to face a “serious” food emergency.

Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon said that North Korea’s harvest this year is not bad, citing South Korean civic officials who recently visited the country.

“We believe that the North’s food condition is not in a serious crisis situation,” Kim told reporters, adding that the weather has been good and there were no heavy rains like the ones that devastated the North last year.

His comments came a day after the U.N. food agency said millions of North Koreans face a food crisis and called on donor countries, including South Korea, to provide urgent food aid.

Posted in Agriculture, Agriculture statistics, Food, Foreign aid statistics, Institute for Far Eastern Studies, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program | 2 Comments »

US food aid arrives in DPRK

Sunday, June 29th, 2008

According to CNN:

A U.S. ship has arrived at a North Korean port carrying 38,000 tons of food aid to be distributed to some of the millions living in hunger, U.N. sources said Sunday.

The delivery is part of a new deal signed by U.S., U.N., and North Korean officials and others, which gives outsiders — including the U.N. World Food Program — much greater access to the country.

From the New York Times:

The ship’s visit and the North Korean agreement to invite an additional 50 international relief experts from the World Food Program, as well as a consortium of U.S. relief agencies, followed recent progress in six-nation talks on ending the North’s nuclear weapons programs.

For years, North Korea has guarded its people from contact with outside aid workers. The WFP, the largest international aid group operating in North Korea, currently has only 10 international personnel based in North Korea.

After sailing for several weeks from the U.S. west coast, the American-flagged M/V Baltimore arrived in Nampo, the North’s main port near Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, on Sunday evening.

On Monday, it began unloading half of its cargo of 37,000 tons of U.S.-grown wheat, Risley said. The ship will discharge the other half of its cargo at Hungnam and Chongjin, ports on the North’s eastern coast.

The shipment is the first installment of 500,000 tons in promised U.S. aid that will be distributed by the WFP and U.S. aid groups, such as Mercy Corps.

Before the ship’s arrival, North Korea agreed on Friday to allow the WFP to deploy the largest number of international workers since it began operations there in 1996 amid a famine that eventually killed an estimated 2 million North Koreans.

Until now, the WFP has had access to only 50 of the North’s 200 counties, distributing its aid through nurseries, schools, hospitals and orphanages. Under the new agreement, the agency will have access to 128 counties, including the remote and traditionally deprived northeast region and some counties never before accessible to humanitarian agencies.

The wheat shipment arrived just days after North Korea delivered a long-delayed nuclear declaration.

Meanwhile, the North rejected a South Korean offer to ship 50,000 tons of corn, the Seoul government said on Monday.

From the Associated Press:

Sunday’s wheat shipment will be enough for the WFP to expand its operations to feed more than 5 million people, up from 1.2 million people now getting international aid.

On the supply side, anticipation of this aid, plus Russian aid, and increased Chinese grain exports could be behind recent reports that grain prices are falling in North Korea’s markets.

Read the full articles here:
Seoul offers corn aid to Pyongyang
Yonhap
6/30/2008

Food aid reaches North Korea
CNN
6/29/2008

U.S. Food Aid Arrives in North Korea
New York Times
Choe Sang-Hun
7/1/2008

UN: US food aid arrives in North Korea
Associated Press
Burt Herman
6/30/2008

Posted in Food, Foreign aid statistics, Good Friends, International Aid, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program, USA | Comments Closed

How much food do they need?

Tuesday, June 17th, 2008

A few weeks ago, I speculated that no one knows how much food the North Koreans really need, even the DPRK government.

On one side of the debate, the UN World Food Propgram claims that North Korea has a 1.67 million ton grain shortfall leaving 6.5 million individuals at risk. These are North Korea’s numbers and the WFP/FAO is required to accept them.

On the other side of the debate, Marcus Noland and Stephan Haggard argue the DPRK’s grain shortage is closer to 100,000 metric tons. The discrepancy arises because the UN’s estimate is based on individuals needing 460 grams of grain per day to sustain life, but in reality, grains are supplemented by potatoes and other vegetables, lowering the amount of aid needed to sustain the population. Their calculations are explained here.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and Ministry of Unification buttress the Noland/Haggard assertion that things are not as bad as the UN numbers suggest (Daily NK).

In an effort to document the state of affairs via field research, the UN WFP is conducting a survey across 50 counties in the DPRK. According to the BBC:

Staff from the UN World Food Programme have been given rare access to North Korea’s countryside to assess the seriousness of food shortages there.

The audit, being carried out across more than 50 counties, comes at a critical time.

Some recent reports suggest that the country may be on the brink of famine.

North Korea is estimated to have a shortfall of 1.6 million tonnes of grain because of last year’s flood-affected harvest.

But a true picture of the scale of the crisis is very difficult to determine.

Twelve WFP staff and eight US aid agency workers are now fanning out through North Korea, albeit with government minders, visiting hospitals, schools and individual households.

Their work is expected to take two weeks, by which time the world should have a much clearer understanding of the true nature of North Korea’s food crisis.

Here is the World Food Program’s North Korea Page. I have not found anything on the survey team, methodology, or operations. I will post something here if I do.

Read the full artilces here:
Balance of Principle and Flexibility Are Needed When Providing Food Assistance to North Korea
Daily NK
Choi Choel Hee
6/16/2008

Asia’s Other Crisis
Newsweek
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
6/26/2008

UN assesses N Korea food supply
BBC
John Sudworth
6/17/2008

Posted in Agriculture, Food, Peterson Institute, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program | Comments Closed

UN update on North Korea’s food situation

Wednesday, April 16th, 2008

From Bloomberg:

The country has a grain shortfall of 1.66 million metric tons this year, the United Nations agency said in a statement today, citing figures from the Food and Agriculture Organization. The shortfall was the highest since 2001, it said.

“It takes a third of a month’s salary just to buy a few days’ worth of rice,” Jean-Pierre de Margerie, the WFP’s country representative in North Korea, said in the statement. The situation is “not yet” on the scale of the 1990s famine but “yellow lights have to be flashed,” he added in an interview.

The Asian nation’s food deficit may exacerbate a global grain crisis that has driven prices of wheat and rice to records, stoking inflation and sparking civil unrest. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said April 12 that “hundreds of thousands” may starve worldwide.

Prices of staple foods in the North Korean capital have doubled over the past year following floods last August that reduced agricultural output, the WFP statement said. Last year’s harvest was a quarter less than that gathered in 2006, it said.

The WFP assists about 1.1 million North Koreans at present, while 6.5 million people suffer from “food insecurity,” it said. That “figure can be expected to rise if action is not taken,” the statement said.

Even in normal years North Korea has a deficit of 800,000 to 1 million tons of grain, de Margerie said in today’s interview.

The gap is greater this year because of the flooding and as external assistance has fallen since 2005, when North Korea declared that it could do without humanitarian aid, he said.

People will “resort to any means they can to cope” from growing food at home and trading in the country’s private markets to skipping meals, as many did for long periods in the mid-to-late 1990s leading to high malnutrition rates, de Margerie said. (Bloomberg)

From Time (AP):

The North’s annual food deficit is expected to nearly double from 2007 to 1.83 million tons, according to U.N. projections.

Reflecting the situation, prices for key staples at food markets have also doubled to reach their highest level since 2004, the World Food Program said. Although the communist North provides some food rations to its people, those who can resort to markets to help make up for lacking state handouts.

The WFP also called on the North to allow aid groups to operate more freely in the country. Countries giving food distributed by the WFP require monitoring by aid workers to ensure that those most in need are being fed. (Time )

Read the full articles here:
North Korea Faces Food Crisis, UN Agency Warns
Bloomberg
Bradley Martin
4/16/2008

UN: North Korea Faces Food Crisis
Time
Burt Herman
4/16/2008

Posted in Arduous March, Food, General markets (FMR: Farmers Market), Price liberalization, Public Distribiution System (PDS), UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program | Comments Closed

When food and politics collide

Sunday, April 13th, 2008

News of the DPRK’s food shortages began to surface several weeks ago when Good Friends reported:

North Korea’s chronic food shortage has worsened to affect even some of the country’s elite citizens in the capital, a South Korean aid group said Thursday.

The communist nation has not given rice rations to medium- and lower-level officials living in Pyongyang this month after cutting the rations by 60 percent in February, the Good Friends aid agency said in its regular newsletter.

Pyongyang citizens are considered the most well-off in the isolated, impoverished country, where the government controls most means of production and operates a centralized ration system. Only those deemed most loyal to Kim Jong Il’s regime are allowed to live in the capital.

The food situation is more serious in rural areas, with residents in many regions in the country’s South Hwanghae province living without food rations since November, the aid group said. (AP)

Why was this the case?

Floods last August ruined part of the main yearly harvest, creating a 25 percent shortfall in the food supply and putting 6 million people in need, according to the U.N. World Food Program.

Over the winter, drought damaged the wheat and barley crop, according to a recent report in the official North Korean media. That crop normally tides people over during the summer “lean season” until the fall harvest.

North Korea’s ability to buy food, meanwhile, has plunged, as the cost of rice and wheat on the global market has jumped to record highs, up 50 percent in the past six months.

China also appears to have tightened its food squeeze on North Korea for domestic reasons. In order to meet local demand and control inflation, Beijing slapped a 22 percent tariff on grain exports to the North. (Washington Post)

So North Korea’s domestic agricultural production has fallen and so have commercial food imports (international inflation, OECD government subsidies for bio-fuels, and increasing fuel prices have combined to raise the prices of commodities such as rice and pork up to 70% in the course of a year).

Compounding this problem, however, agricultural aid from North Korea’s two most reliable benefactors (China and South Korea) has dried up.

[China] has quietly slashed food aid to North Korea, according to figures compiled by the World Food Program. Deliveries plummeted from 440,000 metric tons in 2005 to 207,000 tons in 2006. Last year there was a slight increase in aid, but it remained far below the levels of the past decade. (Washington Post)

And strained relations with the new Lee government in South Korea have not helped:

The South typically sends about 500,000 tonnes of rice and 300,000 tonnes of fertiliser a year. None has been sent this year and without the fertiliser, North Korea is almost certain to see a fall of several tens of tonnes in its harvest (Reuters)

So what will be the mitigating factors that prevent another humanitarian emergency?

“The reason for the mass starvation that occurred in late 90s is that North Korea faced natural disasters without expanding the market’s capability to substitute for the broken planned economy capability, and so the damage to North Korean citizens was inevitably large.”

“The market in North Korea has expanded in the last 10 years. The supply and demand structure of daily necessities, including food items, has been formed.”

“Because the market capacity has expanded, the possibility of a mass-scale starvation occurring is no longer high. In actuality, the change in food prices is being monitored at the market.”

-Dong Yong Seung, the Samsung Economic Research Institute’s Economic Security Team Chief, speaking at the 19th Expert Forum sponsored by the Peace Foundation (Daily NK)

Mr. Dong’s analysis addresses the improved efficiency of DRPK’s market supply chains but does not address the effects of an adverse supply shock.

The UN seems ready to help, although it has not been asked:

Institutionally, mechanisms are in place in North Korea to ring the international alarm bell before hunger turns into mass starvation. The World Food Program monitors nutrition in 50 counties, and the Kim government has become expert in asking for help.

“The North Koreans know that they are facing a difficult situation and have made it increasingly clear in the past few weeks that they will need outside assistance to meet their growing needs,” the U.N. official said, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

North Korea, which even with a good harvest still falls about 1 million tonnes, or around 20 percent, short of what it needs to feed its people, relies heavily on aid from China, South Korea and U.N. aid agencies to fill the gap.

The UN official said it was clear from a variety of sources that the food security situation was worsening in North Korea and that it needed to be addressed.

Last month Kwon Tae-jin, an expert on the North’s agriculture sector at the South’s Korea Rural Economic Institute told Reuters that if South Korea and other nations did not send food aid, the North would be faced with a food crisis worse than the one in the 90s.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation said in late March it sees the North having a shortfall of about 1.66 million tonnes in cereals for the year ending in October 2008.

The North will start to feel the shortage the hardest in the coming months when its meagre stocks of food, already depleted by flooding that hit the country last year, dry up and before the start of its potato harvest in June and July. (Washington Post)

The UNWFP, however, will be under pressure from its donors to monitor food aid and make sure it is not diverted to non-emergency uses. Under these conditions, it is not likely that they will be asked to provide much aid until a catastrophy is already underway. So with the UN out of the picture, who is best positioned to prevent the reemergence of a humanitarian crisis in North Korea today? China.

Despite China’s own food probelms, however, it is always likely to capitulate, at least in part, to North Korea’s emergency requests. China does not want to deal with another North Korean famine, particularly during the Olympic season, and they certainly do not want to deal with any political instability that could result.

Yonhap reports that the DPRK has asked the Chinese for 150,000 tons of corn this year. Chinas says they will give 50,000 tons–and that is just initially. (Yonhap)

UPDATE 4/14/2008: I still have not seen any reports in the media of Noth Korea seeking suport from Russia.

UPDATE 6/9/2008: China increases grain export quota to North Korea to 150,000 tons

(more…)

Posted in 1990s Famine, Agriculture, Arduous March, China, Civil society, Economic reform, Food, General markets (FMR: Farmers Market), Price liberalization, South Korea, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program | 2 Comments »

Expert says N.K. becoming more open, better at dealing with national disasters

Monday, September 24th, 2007

Yonhap
9/24/2007

North Korea is becoming more transparent and effective in dealing with disasters, spurred by both internal and external factors, an Asia-Pacific regional specialist said in his latest paper.

Dr. Alexandre Mansourov, a securities studies professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) in Hawaii, noted five trends in the North Korean government’s responses over the past decade to nationwide shocks, including floods, typhoons, drought and avian influenza outbreaks.

Increasing transparency is one of the trends, with Pyongyang more quickly admitting to disasters that have struck the nation, he said in a paper (download here) released last week through the Korea Economic Institute in Washington.

It took North Korea several years to admit the impact of natural disasters in the mid-1990s that led to massive starvation and chronic food shortages. But in August 2000, when it was hit by Typhoon Prapiroon, North Korea released the news three weeks after it occurred, and in the two following years, when other typhoons struck, North Korea reported it within three to six days, Mansourov said.

Pyongyang immediately acknowledged flooding in August 2007, he said.

“Observers agree that the timeliness, details, and amount of coverage of flood damage and rehabilitation work in August 2007 is unprecedented.”

North Korea is also showing institutional knowledge and a capacity for disaster management, with new organizations growing out of a decade of learning and experience, such as various provincial centers, the professor said.

The North Korean Red Cross Society has been exceptional, he said, working with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and has made itself the leading agency in disaster preparedness and response.

Inter-agency coordination has also increased, with deputy prime minister-level working groups working closely together in each disaster since the flood of 2001, as there are preventive programs through which basic relief supplies are stored in town and villages.

For example, the 10-year strategy against avian influenza, worked out by the emergency commission in 2005, would have been unthinkable a decade ago, Mansourov wrote.

Another notable trend is the increasing cooperation between the North Korean government and international humanitarian community, gradually allowing joint needs assessments and monitoring, he noted.

Mansourov argued that external factors helped bring about the changes.

“International factors did make a difference in what happened in (North Korea), especially through the introduction of innovative ideas and dissemination of best humanitarian practices,” in addition to foreign aid, he said.

The scholar also argued that while the country’s top leader, Kim Jong-il, does control any institutional changes, there is also adaptation driven by needs.

“There has been some degree of autonomous institutional learning and adaptation; it is incremental in nature and caused by both positive and negative feedback from the environment regarding institutional performance in crisis situations,” he said.

Posted in 1990s Famine, Arduous March, Avain Flu, Disease prevention, Epidemics, Foreign aid statistics, Health care, International Aid, International/Korean Red Cross, Korea Economic Institute, Statistics, UN, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food Program, UNDP, UNICEF, UNWHO | Comments Closed

FAO Controls Foot & Mouth Disease in North Korea

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

Daily NK
Kim Song A
4/6/2007

Aid for North Korea to prevent further spread of outbreak

The spread of foot and mouth disease that took over the province of Sangwon, Pyongyang has been brought under control announced the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) on the 4th, further adding that future endemics were improbable.

The FAO and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) conducted tests over a period of one week inspecting the infected areas of North Korea.

The FAO Newsroom site reported Chief Veterinary Officer, Joseph Domenech who said, “Based on the mission’s visit to the infected area and discussions with North Korean veterinary authorities we concluded that there is a limited risk that new outbreaks could occur.” Nonetheless, North Korea is yet to remain on the alert list he said.

In relation, the DailyNK made similar reports in February on the rise of foot and mouth disease in the border regions of North Hamkyung province and control measures taken by North Korean authorities to block further contamination.

The disease was identified in cows of Hoiryeong city in early January. Consequently, North Korean authorities secluded the region for 40 days until Feb 24th, even terminating all transportation to the North Korea-China border.

The FAO is preparing a proposal to prevent further epidemics by assisting North Korea with vaccines, an emergency plan as well as laboratory infrastructure and training.

In future, North Korea will need to strengthen its system where animals are registered and identifiable as well as improving quarantine and controlled supervision of animals during transportation.

This epidemic was the first to occur in North Korea since 1960. So far, 400 infected cattle and 2,600 pigs have been rounded up and are undergoing the standard regulatory procedures.

Previously on March 28th, the South Korean government sent 280 mn won worth of medicine, antiseptic and instruments to North Korea to prevent further outbreak. Additionally, extra supplies requested by the North including sterilization are being prepared to be sent.

Posted in Epidemics, Health care, International Aid, UN Food and Agriculture Organization | Comments Closed

North Korean Economy Watch