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Chinese tourism to North Korea rising

Tuesday, August 6th, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Yonhap:

In the report on North Korea published by the state-run Korea Development Institute, Kim Han-gyu, a deputy director at the Korea Tourism Organization, estimated that the number of Chinese tourists to North Korea hit a record high last year, and the trend is likely to persist for the time being.

“This is a probable scenario if current relations between North Korea and China, and the international political situation either persist or improve,” Kim said.

In June, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited North Korea for the first time since he came to power in 2012, a trip that suggested that bilateral relations are back on track after being strained over Pyongyang’s nuclear tests in recent years.

The bilateral ties — once described as being as close as “lips and teeth” — had been soured over the North’s defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons.

North Korea has stepped up efforts to attract more tourists in an apparent bid to earn hard currency in the face of U.N. sanctions over its nuclear tests and its long-range rocket launches.

In 2002, 121,000 Chinese visited North Korea, accounting for 62.4 percent of all foreign tourists to the North that year.

The number of Chinese tourists fell sharply to 24,000 in 2009, when North Korea carried out a second nuclear test in May that year.

Source:
Chinese tourists to N. Korea on rise: official
Yonhap News
2019-07-31

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China’s Xi promised funding for bridge connections in North Korea, reports say

Tuesday, July 30th, 2019

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

This is quite interesting, and hardly surprising. Overall, I’ve seen very little to suggest that China regards the current sanctions pressure as anything but a temporary measure. That would fit the historical pattern well. (For more on this, feel free to check out my chapter on Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy and its impacts on the North Korean economy.) This time is very different because of the longevity and extent of the Chinese sanctions pressure, but in nature, I don’t believe China’s medium- to long-term strategy on North Korea and sanctions has changed. Talk of China “abandoning” North Korea, which used to be rife when Chinese trade data on North Korea pointed in a downward direction, has often been and remains much overblown.

The news is that Xi Jinping, during his June visit to North Korea, supposedly promised that China would fund facilities on the North Korean side of the new-ish border bridge between southwestern Dandong, as well as fund work on the Hwanggumpyong SEZ. Asahi Shimbun:

China has promised to foot the bill for the construction of related facilities for an already-completed bridge across the border between China and North Korea, sources said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping made the pledge when he visited North Korea in June, they said.

During the visit, Xi also promised that China will promote construction of an economic development zone on North Korea’s Hwanggumpyong Island in the Yalu River, which forms a natural border between the two countries, the sources added.

Construction of the bridge and the economic development zone were agreed on when former North Korean leader Kim Jong Il was still alive. But the projects were effectively frozen after his son and successor Kim Jong Un became the country’s leader.

Xi’s willingness to pay the costs of building an access road to the bridge on the North Korean side of the border, as well as customs-related facilities, suggest that economic relations between the two neighbors are moving to a firmer footing.

According to sources knowledgeable about trade between the two countries and those with links to North Korean authorities, Xi’s promises were conveyed to high-ranking North Korean government officials during meetings to report on the outcome of a summit meeting between the two countries.

Xi’s largesse was also shared in the North Korean military as it will be involved in the construction of bridge-related facilities as well as the economic development zone.

The New Yalu River Bridge connects Dandong in China with Sinuiju in North Korea. Although the bridge has been completed, it is not yet open to traffic.

China will provide about 2.5 billion yuan (39 billion yen, or $360 million) for the construction costs. Chinese engineers have been conducting field surveys since late June.

Since around that time, the upper parts of the bridge have been lit up at night.

In mid-July, cars carrying Chinese government officials traveled to a border gate in the middle of the bridge.

Construction of the bridge started in 2011 when Kim Jong Il was in power. China spent about 1.8 billion yuan in construction costs. The bridge was completed in 2014 under Kim Jong Un’s regime.

Source:
China to fund costs so bridge to North Korea can open to traffic
YOSHIKAZU HIRAI
Asahi Shimbun
2019-07-29

On the North Korean side, the bridge has been lacking a connection to the broader road network (or to anywhere, really) since construction began in 2011, as these pictures show:

The new Yalu river bridge, October 1st, 2011. Image from Google Earth/Digital Globe.

The new Yalu river bridge, March 2nd, 2019. Image from Google Earth/Digital Globe.

Overall, this emphasizes the reality that China really is the only country that North Korea has close, substantive and sustainable trade links with. It was truly unlikely that Xi’s visit to North Korea would occur without any promises for economic benefits or the like. Kim Jong-un’s visits to China have rendered similar benefits, though perhaps not of the same economic magnitude.

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Posted in China, Foreign direct investment, Hwanggumphyong and Wihwado Economic Zones (Sinuiju), International trade, Special Economic Zones (Established before 2013) | Comments Closed

Daily NK: North Korean laborers reach Russian construction sites despite sanctions

Wednesday, July 24th, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Daily NK reports:

“Recently, there have been many North Korean workers coming in to Russia. They are arriving at Khabarovsk Station via Tumangang Station. North Korean workers are usually dispatched to Khabarovsk and Ussuriysk and most of them are construction workers,” a source familiar with local affairs told Daily NK.

According to the source, a considerable number of new laborers are being deployed to Russian construction sites as well as some factories and logging sites.

In an interim report submitted to the United Nations in March, Russia said that the number of North Korean workers staying in Russia has declined from 30,023 at the end of 2017 to 11,490 at the end of 2018. Although the number with officially granted visas may have declined, it is believed that these new workers are entering Russia using methods other than a work visa, such as student or temporary stay visas.

It has been reported that in addition to the hard labor, those working in Russia have poor working conditions. They are cooking and sleeping at the same construction site at which they are working.

“North Korean workers are working at a building that is attached to the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok’s Russky Island, and work an average of 15 hours per day from 5:00 am to 9:00 pm or even until 11:00 pm,” he said.

“The daylight is long these days in Russia, so they are working until late in the night without lighting. North Korean workers are really angry because they are worked like dogs. And even though they are working so hard, they do not have much left after paying $1200 dollars to the North Korean company they work for.”

Even under such dire circumstances, North Korean laborers still value being sent to Russia because they can make significantly more money than they can in North Korea.

Some of the highly skilled North Korean workers who have been working in Russia for more than three years are said to be finding their own work under the condition that they pay $1000~$1300 dollars to the state enterprise as a loyalty contribution.

“Those with good skills are freelancing. Some even make $2000~$3000 dollars a month,” a separate source in Russia told Daily NK.

“Russian companies also prefer North Korean workers. Their wages are cheap and they are skilled and work very fast. That is why Russian construction companies prefer to hire them.”

Currently in Russia, there are about 23 North Korean enterprises including Rungrado, Namgyong, Cholsan Trading Company, and Number 17 Construction Company that manage North Korean workers. “A Khabarovsk-based North Korean trading company manages about 2000 North Korean workers,” said the source.

However, it has been reported that recently-dispatched North Korean workers in Russia cannot freely move or contact the outside world as they are under tighter surveillance.

Source:
North Korean laborers reach Russian construction sites despite sanctions
Jang Seul Gi
Daily NK
2019-07-24

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China-North Korea trade up in first half of 2019

Wednesday, July 24th, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

A fairly minor recovery from an already low level, one should bear in mind. SCMP reports:

China’s trade with North Korea recovered in the first half of this year after a sharp fall in 2018, Beijing said on Tuesday.

The announcement comes as ties between the countries improve, with Chinese President Xi Jinping making his first state visit to Pyongyang last month.

Total trade with North Korea reached US$1.25 billion between January and June, up 14.3 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier, Ministry of Commerce figures showed.

Exports to North Korea amounted to US$1.14 billion – a rise of 15.5 per cent – while imports rose 3.2 per cent to US$110 million.

China remains North Korea’s sole military ally and biggest trading partner. Trade in 2018 was worth US$2.7 billion, down 48.2 per cent year on year, the Seoul-funded Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency said last week.

North Korea’s trade with China fell sharply in 2018, taking its overall foreign trade to less than US$3 billion for the first time since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un took power in 2011.

[…]

Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, said China was “doing its work under the UN sanctions regime” but that North Korea might have the strength to work through its economic hardships.

“The country is always economically isolated from the rest of the world, and North Korean people are used to this situation. In fact, self-reliance has been their way of life for a very long time,” Zhang said.

Article source:

China-North Korea trade up 14.3 per cent in first half to US$1.25 billion
Lee Jeong-ho
South China Morning Post
2019-07-24

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DailyNK on Xi Jinping’s June 2019 and domestic economic impacts

Thursday, June 20th, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Daily NK:

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea on June 20-21 has garnered significant international interest on the impact it will have on the lives of ordinary North Koreans, who continue to suffer from the impact of international sanctions.

There is also interest in the “bag of gifts” that Xi will bring to North Korea for his upcoming visit. Past Chinese premiers visiting North Korea typically brought gifts for the regime: Jiang Zemin promised food, fuel and manure to North Korea during his visit in 2001, while Hu Jintao promised two billion USD in aid in 2005.

One potential reason that Xi has not made an earlier trip to North Korea may be because China’s hands are somewhat tied in regard to such gifts while international sanctions remain in place. In all likelihood, however, the fact that Xi has decided to make the trip suggests that China intends to provide economic aid to the country.

Some observers say that China will have difficulty providing aid that goes outside the boundaries of international sanctions. There may be limits to only providing humanitarian aid such as food or manure as a show of sincerity.

Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) researcher Cho Han-bum told Daily NK on June 18 that “China will not be able to lift the sanctions or become a game-changer on the international stage in regards to North Korea,” but that “it wants to influence events on the Korean Peninsula so it will try to maintain a strong relationship within the framework of international sanctions.”

“China can provide large shipments of food and other necessities,” Cho also noted. “They might try to strengthen the bilateral relationship by increasing human exchanges and tourism to North Korea.”

While China has acquiesced to many of the international sanctions imposed on North Korea, the country may aim to improve the lives of the North Korean people given that it publicly opposes sanctions that damage the civilian economy.

“The Chinese government believes that the sanctions are damaging North Korea’s civilian economy while failing to denuclearize the country,” Gyeongsang National University professor Park Jong-chul told Daily NK when asked for comment. “I predict that China will drastically increase humanitarian aid that does not run afoul of international sanctions.”

Park opined that Xi’s visit to North Korea could lead to more human exchanges, which could in turn positively impact the North’s civilian economy. “Many more Chinese business people, scholars, students and tourists will go to North Korea […] this could soften the impact of the sanctions on North Korea while still abiding by them,” he said.

Xi’s visit to North Korea could also change the atmosphere in the Sino-North Korean border region. China could scale back its strong-armed efforts to eliminate smuggling in the area or even allow North Korean workers to return to China.

Daily NK reported in January that smuggling was widespread in the border region after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s fourth visit to China. A Chinese source also reported that large numbers of North Korean workers were seen heading into China after Kim’s first visit to the country in March last year.

“The Chinese government is cracking down on smuggling, but tends to soften its stance during and after summits,” Park said. “There is an increasing number of North Korean workers at companies in Beijing and other places in China […] The Chinese government seems to be developing a visa that can allow these workers to stay under non-worker visas.”

Source:
Impact of Xi’s planned visit to North Korea on the country’s civilian economy
Ha Yoon Ah
Daily NK
2019-06-20

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Seoul wires $8 million to North Korea in humanitarian aid

Tuesday, June 11th, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Note: this is not a lot of money in context. It covers only a small part of what WFP and others estimate as the funding need.

Yonhap:

South Korea on Tuesday sent a pledged donation of US$8 million to U.N. agencies to support their efforts to provide assistance to North Korean women and children in need, the unification ministry said.

Last week, the Seoul government endorsed the donation plan for the World Food Programme (WFP) and the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF) for their projects to support the nutrition of children and pregnant women in North Korea and address their health problems.

Of the total, $4.5 million was allocated to the WFP and the remainder to UNICEF.

The money was remitted to the agencies Tuesday afternoon, according to the unification ministry.

A ministry official said earlier in the day that it will take more time before the money will be actually spent on the agencies’ projects in North Korea, adding that they are working on reducing the time before its implementation in consideration of the urgent need of many North Korean people.

Article source:
Seoul wires promised money to U.N. agencies for N.K. projects
Yonhap News
2019-06-11

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Is China trying to destroy North Korea?, wonders this North Korean trader

Tuesday, May 7th, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

I suppose the headline for this post might count as clickbait in our field, but I couldn’t help it… Daily NK:

North Korean workers in China facing visa denials or restrictions on their sojourn periods are being forced to return home, according to an affected source in China.

A North Korean trader in Liaoning Province recently told Daily NK by phone that Chinese authorities are demanding that all North Korean workers return home.

“I do business in Liaoning Province. China is making a big fuss and ordering us out [of the country] and now my Chinese visa has almost expired. But few North Koreans actually care about their visa status in China. China telling us to leave and it’s making me really angry and annoyed,” he said.

“A lot of people are returning home. This happened in the past, but this time is different. I asked a North Korean customs official and he said that half of the North Koreans in Dandong have left. That’s a huge number of people. Those who remain are worried about their status here. People who work in China generally have debts to pay back. I sometimes wonder if China is trying to destroy North Korea.”

He also spoke about his own precarious situation.

“I’ve brought over many workers myself into China. Each of them gave me 500 dollars and I found them work in factories run jointly with China. They’re all 500 dollars in debt. They can’t repay this money, so they’re worried about returning home. They could get beaten up or even die if they can’t repay their debts,” he said.

“I haven’t been able to contribute enough to the [regime’s] loyalty fund either. Returning home would be a death sentence. I’d rather die here (in China) before my body returns home.”

Full article:
North Korean trader in China expresses concerns about his own precarious situation
Ha Yoon Ah
Daily NK
2019-05-07

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Possible North Korea five-year strategy document leaked, says Japanese newspaper

Monday, April 22nd, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

The following is interesting if true, and it makes a great deal of sense. One of North Korea’s main challenges is diversifying itself away from the overwhelming reliance on China for trade and economic ties. It’s easier said than done, though, and a wise (from a North Korean point of view) strategic ambition is one thing; realizing it is entirely different. I’ve written elsewhere about the age-old North Korean aim of diversifying itself economically away from reliance on China. Still, not much has happened since Kim Jong-il’s speech in the 1990s…

Hankyoreh’s re-write of Mainichi Shimbun:

A document titled “National Economic Development Strategy (2016–2020)” that North Korea adopted in the 2016 congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) stated that the country needs to become less dependent on China, the Japanese press has reported.Japanese newspaper the Mainichi Shimbun reported on Apr. 21 that the strategy document set the goal of achieving an average annual economic growth rate of 8% and proposed “reducing our reliance on China and expanding foreign trade in a number of areas, including Russia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.”

While this strategy was adopted in the 7th WPK Congress, held in May 2016, after a hiatus of 36 years, the specific details and figures in the strategy had not been previously disclosed. The Mainichi explained that the strategy document had recently been acquired by Cho Yun-yeong, a Korean-Japanese researcher on North Korea.This document said that China represented 71.6% of North Korea’s trade value in 2014; Russia, 4.2%; and Germany, 0.8%. “China accounts for an overwhelming share of trade. We’ve been unable to move away from our dependence on China,” the document said.

The solution posited by the document was the diversification of foreign trade.More specifically, North Korea set the goal of increasing the amount of its trade with Russia to US$1 billion by 2020. According to the latest estimate by the South Korean government, North Korea’s trade with Russia amounted to US$77.84 million in 2017. In other words, the North was seeking to increase its trade with Russia more than tenfold in the space of just four years.The Mainichi Shimbun also said the North Korean document proposed gaining funds needed for building hydroelectric plants from Russia, as well as technical cooperation for upgrading facilities such as the Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex and the Musan Iron Mine.

North Korea also appears to have drawn up a plan to attract investment from Russian companies in international tourism zones in Wonsan and Mt. Kumgang and an economic development zone in Chongjin, along the the East Sea, in order to “build a cooperative network for producing medical products on consignment, processing marine products and developing natural energy.”The Japanese newspaper predicted that economic cooperation between the two countries could be on the agenda of the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is likely to be held in Vladivostok on Apr. 24. But given the failure of the second North Korea-US summit, in Hanoi, to live up to its expectations, it won’t be easy for the North to massively boost its trade with Russia, as it hopes to do.

Full article:

N. Korean document reveals strategy to decrease reliance on China, Japanese press reports
Cho Ki-weon
Hankyoreh
2019-04-22

And here’s the original article:

Documents obtained by a South Korean researcher have shed light on the full breadth of North Korea’s top-secret state economic development strategy for 2016 to 2020, including an 8% economic growth target and strengthened ties with Russia and other countries to break dependence on China.

The 157 pages of strategy documents, along with a Jan. 21 paper titled “Cabinet decision No. 2,” which presents North Korea’s agenda for this year, were obtained by Cho Yun-yong, a researcher on North Korea who formerly served as a Tokyo correspondent for South Korean news agency Newsis.

According to the documents, Pyongyang aims to achieve 8% annual economic growth through technological development and trade diversification. While the state economic development strategy had been presented at the seventh convention of the Workers’ Party of Korea in May 2016, its details and numerical targets were not publicly released.

The objectives outlined in the documents likely provided motivation for Pyongyang’s strong demand that economic sanctions on the country be lifted during a February summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump. They also likely played a part in the planned summit between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin later this month.

With regard to the current status of the North Korean economy, the strategy documents point to low output levels of electricity and coal and the failure to fulfill domestic demand for food supply and daily necessities. As measures to realize the economic development strategy, the documents cite technological development, trade diversification and the full introduction of a new economic management method, which implies de-facto economic reform.

Specifically, the strategy calls for a break from the North’s exclusive devotion to China and expansion of trade to Russia and other countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. In particular, the initiative aims to boost the amount of trade with Russia to 1 billion dollars (about 110 billion yen) by 2020. The figure is more than 10 times the North Korea-Russia trade value of 77.84 million dollars in 2017, as reported in South Korean statistics.

The five-year strategic plan also suggests having Russia provide North Korea with the funds necessary to build hydroelectric plants and other facilities, as well as technological cooperation for revamping the Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex and the Musan Mine.

Furthermore, the economic strategy proposes inviting investment from Russian companies for special economic zones along the Sea of Japan. These proposals may become topics for discussion at the upcoming summit between Kim Jong Un and Russian President Putin.

Article source:
Docs shed light on scope of N. Korean development strategy through 2020
Koichi Yonemura
Mainichi Shimbun
2019-04-20

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North Korea has skipped Kaesong liaison office meetings for eight weeks

Thursday, April 18th, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Reports Yonhap:

North Korea skipped a weekly meeting of the co-chiefs of an inter-Korean liaison office for the eighth straight week on Friday, deepening concerns about slumping cross-border exchanges amid stalled denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and the North.

“North Korea informed us in advance that the North’s office head could not attend this week’s meeting,” unification ministry spokesman Lee Sang-min told a regular press briefing. “The meeting will not be held (this week), but the two Koreas continue to discuss necessary matters in a normal manner.”

When the two Koreas launched the liaison office last September in the North’s border town of Kaesong, they promised to hold a meeting of its co-heads — Vice Unification Minister Chun Hae-sung on the South side and his North Korean counterpart Jon Jong-su — every week, mostly on Fridays, to discuss cross-border issues.

The weekly meeting has not been held since before the Hanoi summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump, which ended without a deal due to differences over how to match Pyongyang’s denuclearization steps with Washington’s sanctions relief. It was last held on Feb. 22.

Full article:
N. Korea skips meeting of liaison office chiefs for 8 straight weeks
Yonhap News
2019-04-19

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New bridge crossing open between Jian and Manpo

Monday, April 8th, 2019

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Bloomberg:

China and North Korea opened a new border crossing over the Yalu River, signaling aspirations for deeper economic ties between the neighbors even as Pyongyang’s trade remains crimped by international sanctions.

The border checkpoint at the foot of a new bridge opened Monday, connecting the northeastern Chinese city of Jian with North Korea’s Manpo, Chinese state media reported. The China-DPRK Jian-Manpo highway connection is for passenger and cargo transport and hosts an advanced customs facility, the China News Service said.

The opening was marked by several tour buses crossing from the Chinese side and then returning from North Korea, the Yonhap News Agency of South Korea reported, citing a person familiar with the matter. The ceremony appeared to show that local Chinese officials were ready to step up trade and exchanges with North Korea in response to its call for economic development, according to Yonhap.

China provides a lifeline to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his state has long been dependent on Beijing’s help to keep its meager economy afloat. Kim’s summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi broke down on Feb. 28 over sanctions that have cut Pyongyang off from global commerce and were imposed on North Korea for its pursuit of a nuclear arsenal.

It was unclear how the new border checkpoint — the fourth between China and North Korea — would operate under the sanctions, which ban or limit a broad range of goods from moving in or out of the country. The South Korean Unification Ministry declined to comment.

The economic penalties are expected to be a main topic of discussion when South Korean President Moon Jae-in meets Trump at the White House on Thursday. Moon, a long-time advocate of reconciliation with North Korea, has repeatedly played the role of mediator since he took office in May 2017 amid escalating threats of war between Trump and Kim.

The Manpo border area has drawn the attention of North Korea for years, with Kim’s father and former leader, Kim Jong Il, crossing there in 2010 in one of his rare trips outside the country, the Chosun newspaper of South Korea reported at the time. In the 2010 trip, Kim Jong Il visited the school his father and North Korean state founder Kim Il Sung attended on the Chinese side when he was a child.

China and North Korea agreed to embark on the bridge project in 2012 and completed construction in 2016, Yonhap reported. The opening was delayed by UN Security Council sanctions imposed on North Korea.

In 2017, China’s overall trade with North Korea declined by more than 10 percent to about $5 billion, as Trump secured Beijing’s backing for four escalating rounds of sanctions in response to North Korea nuclear weapons program testing.

Article source:

China, North Korea Open New Border Crossing Despite Sanctions

Jon Herskovitz and Dandan Li
Bloomberg News
2019-04-08

Yonhap:

China and North Korea on Monday officially opened a new cross-border bridge halfway along the Yalu River, offering clues to their possible expansion of bilateral economic exchanges amid ongoing international sanctions.

The new bridge connects Jian in the northeastern Chinese province of Jilin with North Korea’s northern border city of Manpo.

The two countries agreed to the Jian-Manpo bridge project in May 2012 and completed its construction in 2016. But they have since delayed its official opening, apparently affected by United Nations Security Council sanctions on the North over its missile and nuclear programs.

Jian, located about halfway along the Yalu River, is considered a representative base of trade between North Korea and China, along with Liaoning Province’s Dandong on the Yalu River estuary and Jilin Province’s Hunchun on the Tumen River estuary.

Four tourist buses arrived in China from North Korea via the new bridge at 8:20 a.m. Monday before returning to the North about one hour later carrying about 120 passengers.

According to a local tour company, the tourists are planning to return to Jian around 5 p.m. after visiting attractions in and around Manpo.

A source in the border area told Yonhap News Agency that China’s provincial governments appear to be boldly trying to cooperate with North Korea in response to their demand for economic development.

“North Korea’s denuclearization has not been implemented, but the environment surrounding North Korea and China appears to be partially changing,” the source said.

“China may not expand its economic cooperation with North Korea considerably in consideration of its relations with the United States. But the opening of a new bridge may signal expansion of bilateral economic exchanges,” said the source.

Article source:
China, N. Korea open new cross-border bridge
Yonhap News
2019-04-08

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