North Korean Economy Watch

From the Daily NK:

The deputy director of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin Province recently said he plans to “establish permanent trade relation with North Korea and pursue multinational tourism projects which connects China-North Korea-Russia through Tumen River Area Development Project”. He also said, “the government of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture will more actively pursue cooperation with North Korea during the 11th Five-Year Plan(2006~2010)”.

The Korean Autonomous Prefecture decided to establish 2 level highway between Rajin, North Korea and Yuanzheng maritime customs, Hunchun, China and to reconstruct the tailway between Rajin and Onsung in North Hamkyung Province.

Lee Yong Nam at Department of Trade in North Korea said, “economic trade between North Korea-China is improving with the attention of leaders in each country. Intimate economic cooperation will be maintained by all means possible”.

China gained exclusive right to use and develop Rajin port in North Korea, as compensation for establishment of high way in Wonjung-Rajin in North Hamkyung Province. China was excused from all the custom formalities of labor and equipments related to the establishment and development of highway and port, from which they saved 4 million Yuan per year.

Through the trading zone between North Korea-China in Tumen River area, China plans to export food, fertilizers, electronics, textile, plastic goods, cigarrete, mechanical devices. Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture had 11 million 430 thousand dollars trade surplus from trade with North Korea in the first half of last year. A government official at the local government said, “trade surplus will increase drastically when the trading zone between North Korea- China is established” with excitement.

This story from the Daily NK has an update on whats happening at Raijin as well as a history of the area:

Read whole story here:

In December 1991, Rajin and Seunbong cities were declared “Free Trade Economic Regions”, Rajin Port was planned to be expanded according to a 3-stage development scheme. The first stage consisted of infrastructure construction such as railroads, roads, and ports.  In the ten years since, the budgetary outlays have been insufficient.

In 1996, the Committee for Promoting NK Foreign Economic Cooperation published a report, “Reality and Outlook for Rajin- Sunbong Free Trade Economic Regions.” According to the report, the Rajin Port should first build capacity for large-sized containers.  In stage two, its loading-handling capacity should be improved from 300 million tons to 1,700 million tons.  The third stage, beginning in 2010, the port should have the capacity to manage 100 million tons.

I have visited the DPRK twice, and in that time, I purchased every different brand of cigarette I saw.  So I have 9 different brands (not including menthols).  So it came a a shock to me when I read in the Daly NK about another brand I had never heard of…and it was the most popular!?!?

“Craven A” Cigarettes! (a.k.a. cat cigarettes)

• They cost a pretty steep 1,500W ($.5).  Considering that the monthly salary of a North Korean worker is b/n 2000~10,000W ($0.6-3.3) and the price of 1kg of rice is 800~900W($0.27-0.3), CRAVEN’s are very costly.
• Caven A is a product of British American Tobacco (BAT), and is widely consumed in the Middle East and Africa. In October 2004, the Guardian, British daily newspaper, had reported that BAT has been secretly operating a cigarette factory in North Korea. BAT announced that they had established “Daesung-BAT” with the Korean “Chosun Suhkyung Trading Company” in September 2001, and have been producing Craven A and Viceroy (?).
• Teresa La Thangue, a spokesman from BAT said, “Approximately 200 workers are present in the factory in North Korea, producing maximum of 2,000 million cigarettes every year, and all the products are consumed strictly in North Korea.” When asked the reason for not revealing the existence of the factory in North Korea earlier, Thangue replied, “Compared to the scale of BAT, which produces 90 billion cigarettes every year, the factory in North Korea only takes up a very small portion of the output.” Assuming there are 20 million North Korens, and if half of them are men (smokers), then that means BAT produces  200 cigarettes per North Korean per year.  What is the official ration? (NKEW)
• North Koreans can tell the difference between DPRK and Chinese “Craven A”s.  They prefer the Chinese.  They also prefer American Marlboro Reds as well. (NKEW)
• Defectors allege that the factory used to make counterfit cigarettes.  Whether it does still or not, who knows?
• Since their invention, cigarettes have served a number of functions (besides smoking).  The same is probably true in the DPRK.

Kyodo News:

China has reached an agreement with North Korea to let the private sector, rather than the government, take the initiative in providing economic aid to Pyongyang and to respect market principles, sources familiar with China-North Korea relations said Saturday. According to the sources, the market-based approach is contained in a cooperation agreement in economy and technology signed by the two countries when Chinese President Hu Jintao visited North Korea in late October.

One of the objectives of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s visit to China in January was to confirm this approach, the sources said.

The sources also said a cooperation agreement in economy and technology signed by a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Wu Yi during their visit to North Korea in early October is separate from the agreement with the same name signed during Hu’s visit later that month.

The earlier agreement calls on China to continue providing materials and technological cooperation for the Da’an Friendship Glass Factory near Pyongyang. It also allows North Korea to export glass products made at the factory.

According to the BBC:

A Macau bank accused by the US of laundering money for North Korea has agreed to dissolve all links with the communist state.

The US Treasury said Banco Delta Asia had acted as a “willing pawn” for North Korea to channel money through Macau.

Macau’s authorities took control of the bank last year after the fraud claims led to a run on its deposits.  Customers withdrew 10% of total deposits after the allegations surfaced.

Officials said the bank would end ties with North Korean clients and tighten its anti-money laundering procedures.

According to the Asia Times:

2/14/06

SEOUL – North Korea’s economy would have posted minus growth if it had not been for its rapidly growing trade with China, the South Korean central bank’s research unit said Monday.

North Korea-China trade has been rising by an average 30% every year since 2000, boosting the communist state’s economic growth by 3.5% every year, according to the Institute for Monetary and Economic Research.

As of 2004, the bilateral trade accounted for 39% of the North’s total trading volume, and also made up 77% of annual increase in the North’s trade volume, the institute said. North Korea’s economic growth could have dipped below zero if it were not for such a sharp increase in its trade with China, the institute said. Such a sharp increase in bilateral trade is the result of North Korea’s low production capacity and cheap prices of Chinese goods, it said.

Geographical proximity also boosted the trade. The fast growth of the Chinese economy will result in increased trade with North Korea and induce more market elements in the Stalinist state in the coming years, the institute predicted.

As a result, the inclusion of China in South Korea’s economic cooperation with the North will be one of the options that the government could consider in its policy, it added.

According to the Daily NK (2006-2-13):

A high-level internal source in North Korea reported on the 12th that North Korea is in the process of restarting the development of Shinuiju Special Administrative Region.

According to the source, a mass number of residents were moved to rural areas, plans were set to move administrative offices and plans were carried out to build the road to Dandong, China is under expansion construction. They are also coming up with measures to better control the usage of cellular phones as well as other political measures.

Such recent development activities in Shinuiju mainly took place after Kim Jong Il’s visit to China, which seems to be part of North Korea’s reformation and liberalization plan.

Driving Out the Residents and Their Number

The source reported, “They are planning to move the Shinuiju residents of about 7,000 families (25,000 to 30,000 people) to close cities and rural areas. Their plan is to strictly sort out those from “bad families” and those who have committed political errors (wrongdoings) and move them to Chulsan-gun [Cholsan], Donglim-gun [Tongrim], Yomju-gun, and Taechun-gun[Thaechon] of North Pyongan province.”

In September of 2002, North Korea announced Shinuiju as the Special Administrative Region and nominated Yang Bin, president of Ouya Group at the time, who was the invited minister of the Shinuiju Special Administrative Region. He said, “We will move the current 200,000 Shinuiju residents to another place.”

At the time, the North Korean government started to build 3 m high fence around the designated region, which clearly showed its preparation to make Shinuiju an isolated Special Administrative Region.

Kim Eun Chul, president of Backdu-Halla Association, a young adults defectors organization and a former Shinuiju resident, said, “Chulsan-gun, Donglim-gun, Yomju-gun, and Taechun-gun are agricultural areas where there is no military or manufacturing production facilities, thus they are adequate places to move the residents.”

“There have been rumors about moving those people with unclear backgrounds out of the region every time they talked about making the Special Administrative Region.”

Provincial Administrative Offices to be Moved

The source reported, “The provincial offices located in Shinuiju city are rebuilt in South Shinuiju and roads to Dandong, China are under construction to be expanded.”

Shinuiju’s administrative offices refer to provincial offices of North Pyongan Province, including Provincial Party (office), People’s Committee, and Administrative Committee. Plans to move these offices to South Shinuiju had been announced when the government announced the plan for the Shinuiju Special Administrative Region in September 2002. South Shinuiju is located about 3 km away from downtown Shinuiju and when Shinuiju becomes a Special Administrative Region, administrative work will be divided and South Shuinuiju will take charge of provincial administrative work.

Yet another source said, “Among the Shinuiju residents, rumors are spreading that Kim Jong Il’s visit to China was for iron and oil trade.” Shinuiju relied on Chinese aid or trade for most of the industrial facilities and as an example, currently, Baekmawon Oil Factory in Shinuiju is receiving oil aid of 1,500,000 tons per year from China.

Additional posts on the Sinuiju SAR can be found here.

Read the full story here:
Shinuiju Special Administrative Region Plan Propelled Once Again
Daily NK
Kwon Jeong Hyun
2006-2-13

According to the Daily NK:

Recent testimonies came out stating that 90% of the families in Hamheung City of South Hamkyung province maintain their living by running private businesses and due to the given reality, distribution of phones has been rapidly on the rise.  It is a well known fact that the North Korean factories in work are still below 20% and it is the women who are the main breadwinners of the North Korean homes. This is the first time the testimony came out saying that 90% of women in Hamheung City run businesses.  Lee said that although she does not sell at a stall in a jangmadang, she does have a business of providing necessary items to a number of regulars. She started this medication business in 1995, when her relatives(Korean-Chinese) living in China helped her by providing 500,000 Won ($250).

Lee said that instead of going to the workplace, she pays 10,000 won ($5). Because she is not working, they do not give her food tickets, but they stamp her attendance card. If she neither works nor pays, she has to go to a labor detention facility (Nodong Danryeondae).

“Although state enterprises say they will give 10,000 won ($5) to the workers, after taking out fees for the People’s Army, savings, and other fees to the state, the money you end up with is only about 2,000 Won ($1). With this, you cannot live. This is why I started my own business,” said Lee.

Kim Jin Chul (male, age 26) from Shinuiju testified, “Most of the families I know of in my town, Dongsang-dong, Shiuiju, have their own businesses. They mostly sell manufactured goods such as shoes, hats, glasses, gloves and food such as candies, ramyun, and liquor.”

“More than 90% of the Dongsang-dong residents live by running their own businesses. They buy goods by making profits by exchanging foreign currency to the trade companies in China, and they sell them in jangmadang,” said Kim.

According to Yonhap: 

“An investigation by the Bush administration has found that North Korea’s government officially sanctions criminal products such as counterfeit American currency, narcotics and counterfeit cigarette brands,” the report said.

“The administration is divided over how to use this information, whether to pressure North Korean leaders to give up nuclear weapons, or give up power,” it said.

Years of U.S. investigations, involving 14 federal agencies, have found that the illicit activities are now generating more than half a billion U.S. dollars for Pyongyang, according to NPR.

North Korea is counterfeiting not only the greenback but also the Japanese yen, and well as producing heroin, methamphetamines, fake pharmaceuticals such as Viagra and Marlboro and other cigarettes brands, the report said.

The regime was even counterfeiting tax stamps attached to American cigarette packs.

“You name it, they are pretty much in it,” David Asher, former State Department official who was deeply involved in the North Korean investigations, told NPR.

Mitchell Reiss, who led the probe during his two years at the State Department policy planning office under the first Bush administration, said the scale and scope of North Korea’s illicit activities “surprised” him.

Speculation was rampant this week on the whereabouts of Kim jong il.  No one knew for sure really…First he was Beijing via his special train, then he was in Russia, others claimed it was Shanghai by air.  It turns out he was in southern China (by train). As usual, the “unofficial” trip, from January 10-18, and itinerary were made public just as Kim was to return home.(source)

According to the Washintgon Post:
Hundreds of uniformed and plainclothes police swarmed in and around the opulent White Swan Hotel in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province, putting up roadblocks leading to the hotel. In the early evening, two of the city’s most luxurious sightseeing ferries — “The Pearl of the Flower City” and “The Information Times,” named after a local paper — cruised slowly down the Pearl River, with Kim rumored to be aboard. Police cars lined roads on both sides of the river.

Where did he visit?
A Guangzhou branch of Sun Yat Sen Univeristy (source)
Yantian container port (source) (Guangzhou)
Wuhan and Yichang, Hubei province (source)
Beijing (source)
Three Gorges Dam (source)
High-tech factories and agricultural research institute (source)
Yantian Port (source)

What was the purpose? 
The visit has prompted speculation that China is advocating market reforms for Pyongyang and could also urge it to rejoin stalled nuclear negotiations. 

Mr Kim’s visit to the cradle of the Chinese boom could be a careful hint to the outside world that he is following Beijing’s lead, says the BBC’s Louisa Lim in Beijing. (source)

“There is a debate in North Korea as there was in China at one time about how far and how fast they should go,” said Chung Jae Ho, an international relations expert at Seoul National University. “But I think this is a signal that this is the right time for a new opening.”(source)

He said one possibility widely discussed among experts was that North Korea would try to create a capitalist-oriented trading zone on its western coast, near China, modeled at least loosely on Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong.(source)

Kim also held meetings with President Hu Jintao and all other eight members of the governing Politburo Standing Committee as well as tours of two Chinese provinces.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, made an unscheduled trip to Beijing and met with his North Korean counterpart, Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan, in a session hosted by the Chinese, diplomats said. (source)

Kim Quote:
“The progress made in the southern part of China, which has undergone a rapid change, and the stirring reality of China deeply impressed us”