Archive for October, 2015

Growth and Geography of Markets in North Korea

Tuesday, October 6th, 2015

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Some shameless self-promotion: the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins SAIS released a report yesterday where I (with the help of Curtis and others) study how North Korea’s formalized markets have grown over time, and how they are distributed geographically using satellite imagery from Google Earth. The report is available here. These are the main findings:

  • With a few exceptions, formalized markets have grown in North Korea over the past few years. In some cities, they have more than doubled, while other cities have seen only nominal or no changes. Only Pyongsong, the capital of South Pyong’an Province, has seen a significant decline in aggregate market space.
  • There exists only a weak correlation between population size and aggregate market space. The correlation between aggregate market space per capita and proximity to Pyongyang, a large driver for demand in the North Korean economy, is also relatively weak. 

The largest aggregate market space per capita can be found in cities in the southwestern part of the country. This suggests that trade on formal markets may be driven by other factors than those commonly assumed, such as sea route trade and agriculture.

Share

Kim Jong Un pays ‘special incentive’ to entire North Korean people

Monday, October 5th, 2015

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)

With the 70th anniversary of the Workers’ Party ahead, Kim Jong Un has decided to pay every North Korean soldier and civilian a ‘special incentive’ amounting to 100% of their salary. Unlike past major anniversaries, in which the government paid citizens goods like blankets or wall clocks, this time it is distributing cash. This is seen as a reflection of the deepening marketization in North Korea.

On September 25, 2015, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported, “As the Workers’ Party of Korea reaches its 70th anniversary, all workers, military personnel, and recipients of scholarships, subsidies or pensions will be granted special prize money amounting to 100% of their monthly living expenses.”

Thus, it appears a special incentive will be issued not just to soldiers and working citizens, but to college students, retirees with pensions, and people like the unemployed who receive a basic living subsidy. In short, it will be paid to every adult citizen, excluding those in high school and younger.

This is the first time since the establishment of the regime that North Korean authorities have paid such an incentive to all citizens and soldiers instead of an unspecified large number of individuals.

One similar instance in which North Korea distributed a special incentive to the people was the 1989 World Festival of Youth and Students. In celebration of the results of the ‘200 Day Battle’ to prepare for the festival, the government presented a special incentive to laborers, technicians, college students with scholarships, and office workers such as clerks. However, the army was excluded from this benefit, as well as retirees and the unemployed.

The offering of special prize money to an unspecified large number of people is not unprecedented. However, the extension of this money to soldiers is seen as a new characteristic. While in the past the government has paid special incentives to individuals or entire farms or corporations that exceeded the regime’s economic plans, until now the government has never extended such incentives to all citizens and soldiers.

Kim Jong Un’s decision to distribute this money to every citizen and soldier ahead of the 70th anniversary of the Workers’ Party is viewed as an attempt to gain public support and strengthen internal unity.

Share

Kaesong output reaches US$3 billion

Monday, October 5th, 2015

According to the JoongAng Ilbo:

The Kaesong Industrial Complex’s accumulated production value is expected to have hit the $3 billion mark, more than a decade after its launch, according to government data.

As of the end of July, accumulated manufactured goods were valued at $2.99 billion, with average monthly production output hovering at around $46 million.

Accumulated production value was thought to have surpassed $3 billion sometime after July.

 

…The volume of manufactured goods at the Kaesong Industrial Complex has increased annually since its opening, except for in 2013, when it was temporarily shut down for five months amid tensions on the peninsula. In 2008, the complex surpassed the $200 million mark in production and continued to expand yearly production levels to reach $469 million in 2012.

Due to the temporary shutdown, the complex saw its annual production drop down to $223 million in 2013, though it bounced back to $469 million the following year.

The number of North Korean workers employed by South Korean firms has gone up, from 7,621 in 2005 to 53,947 in 2014, according to data by the Ministry of Unification.

Here is coverage in Yonhap.

Read the full story here:
Kaesong’s accumulated output at $3B
JoongAng Ilbo
Kang Jin-Kyu
2015-10-5

Share

World Food Program North Korea funds down

Monday, October 5th, 2015

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein 

Voice of America reports:

The U.N. food aid agency said Thursday that its aid to North Korea’s vulnerable people dropped 44 percent last month because of a lack of funds.

A World Food Program spokesman said the organization in September provided 2,105 tons of food to 742,000 people who depend on external assistance, including pregnant women and children.

Last month’s amount was also significantly less than what the U.N. agency planned to provide. The agency’s goal was to provide 10,000 tons of food to 1.8 million people every month.

Recently, the agency scaled down distribution areas to 69 counties and cities across the country.

“The main reason for distributing less food in September was insufficient funding resources,” wrote Damian Kean, WFP’s regional communications officer, in an email to VOA.

To fund projects this year, the agency needs about $167.8 million, but it has secured only half of the amount so far, according to the agency’s website.

The FAO has also highlighted the problem. As mentioned in another post, while the North Korean government claims success for agricultural reforms and claims that the drought impact was very limited, international aid agencies paint a different picture. But data confusion is nothing unusual for North Korea, and perhaps the picture will change as both the North Korean government and multilateral agencies continue to reassess the situation.

Read the full article:

Cash-strapped World Food Program Cuts Aid to N. Korea

Voice of America

10-01-2015

Share

On the Hyesan and Sinuiju real estate markets

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

According to the Daily NK:

Construction of new apartment buildings is being accelerated in North Pyongan Province’s Sinuiju and Hyesan, Yanggang Province, with low rise apartments fetching the highest price at nearly US $10,000. Unlike Sinuiju, which has high rise buildings, Hyesan is mainly constructing low rise apartments. Apartments at or above the fifth floor are being called “Royal Suites,” and selling for big money, according to inside sources.

In a telephone conversation with the Daily NK on October 1st, a source in Yanggang Province explained, “Hyesan is currently undergoing a makeover. New apartments are going up all over the city. Residents are preferring the high rise apartments despite their relative scarcity, or perhaps because of it. Right now a fifth floor, two room apartment (approximately 80-120 square feet) sells for 60,000-70,000 Yuan (US $10,000- $11,000) is the most expensive.”

Another source in Yanggang Province confirmed this development.

In Hyesan, the lower floors go for much cheaper; apartments in floors 1-3 usually sell for about 20,000 – 25,000 Yuan (US $3,000 – $4,000).

“The prices tend to be tied to the floor level like this,” she explained.

“By the time the Korean Workers’ Party Foundation Day holiday arrives on October 10th, Hyesan will look like a totally new city. But construction is not limited to Hyesan; we also see apartment buildings shooting up in Hyesan’s suburbs and riverside regions, in Tabsongdong near Hyesan Stadium, and in Hyemyeongdong, an area filled with statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il.”

Added the source, “Much of the construction is due to investment from the Hwagyo [community of overseas Chinese] residing here. They buy one story houses at a very cheap price and then build up a multi-storied apartment and sell it off. They are making a good amount of money through the sales, but the residents are happy to be enjoying the more modern living spaces, so it’s a win-win.”

When asked why the residents prefer apartments on higher floors, the source said that “people are less worried about theft of furniture and large appliances when they live higher up.” In years past, she asserted, most people preferred to be ground level so that they could have access to the yard for planting vegetables. But now, “ lots of folks are worried about flood damage during the rainy season or the possibility of theft.”

She continued to describe the state of one story homes, saying, “houses near Nongnim University or the Hyesan train station sell for approximately 25,000 Yuan (US $4,000). Homes in Yeonbong Il Dong sell for rather cheap at 5,000 Yuan (~$800). However, there are some pricier places in Yeonbong located near the jangmadang (marketplace) that sell for about 20,000 Yuan (~US $3,000).”

Last week the currency conversion rate in Hyesan was 1 Yuan/1320 KPW. That means that a 60,000 Yuan apartment sells for about 80 million KPW (~US $70,000) and a cheaper home selling for 5,000 Yuan sells for about 6.5 million KPW (~ US $7,000).

Read the full story here:
Hwagyo investors fuel building boom
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
2015-10-2

Share

World Food Program cuts aid to DPRK

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

According to Voice of America:

The U.N. food aid agency said Thursday that its aid to North Korea’s vulnerable people dropped 44 percent last month because of a lack of funds.

A World Food Program spokesman said the organization in September provided 2,105 tons of food to 742,000 people who depend on external assistance, including pregnant women and children.

Last month’s amount was also significantly less than what the U.N. agency planned to provide. The agency’s goal was to provide 10,000 tons of food to 1.8 million people every month.

Recently, the agency scaled down distribution areas to 69 counties and cities across the country.

“The main reason for distributing less food in September was insufficient funding resources,” wrote Damian Kean, WFP’s regional communications officer, in an email to VOA.

To fund projects this year, the agency needs about $167.8 million, but it has secured only half of the amount so far, according to the agency’s website.

The food aid cut came as the communist country has been reducing food rations. Last month, North Korea distributed an average of 250 grams of daily rations per person, a 21 percent decline from a three-year average, according to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization. The figure was less than half of the minimum amount recommended by the U.N. FAO officials blamed poor crop production caused by drought for the cut.

Experts warn that North Korea could face further food shortages next year.

“North Korea has not imported enough food this year, nor did it get significant aid,” said Kwon Tae-jin, an economic analyst in Seoul who specializes in North Korea’s agriculture.

The FAO said North Korea needs 421,000 tons of food from the outside world by the end of the month to feed its citizens this year.

Read the full story here:
Cash-strapped World Food Program Cuts Aid to N. Korea
VOA
Kim Hyunjin
2015-10-1

Share